迎接未来海面上升的严重威胁和开创我国沿海长远可持续发展道路的有力武器——评《中国海面变化》一书

一个多世纪以来世界范围工业化带来CO₂及其他微量气体浓度增加而导致的温室效应和业已出现的全球变暖趋势,已经引起了越来越多的科学家、政治家以至各国政府首脑的关注。而气候变暖对诸多环境要素的影响中,海面上升问题首当其冲。它将给人口密集、经济高度发达的低位的沿海平原的工农业生产与人类生活带来巨大的威胁。正因为如此,国家自然科学基金委员会和中国科学院联合资助了“中国气候与海面变化及其趋势和影响的初步研究”的大型项目。《中国海面变化》(山东科学技术出版社,1996)一书即是该项目所属的4个研究题目的成果之一,也是4卷本《中国气候与海面变化及其趋势和影响》一书之卷2。该书是我国第一部系统总结我国海面变化研究成果的专著。     

冰雪变化对大气环流和天气气候的影响

就冰雪变化及其对大气环流和天气气候的影响进行了综述。主要讨论了以下几个问题:地球冰雪变化的事实,冰雪变化的特征及其在气候系统中的作用,冰雪变化,特别是青藏高原积雪变化对大气环流和天气气候影响研究的主要成果和最新进展。     

国家自然科学基金重大项目简介(6) 中国气候和海面变化及其趋势和影响的初步研究

气候变化及其影响的问题,越来越引起世界各国政府和科学家的重视。为了研究气候变化规律并预测未来的气候状态,联合国世界气象组织制定了世界气候计划(WCP),已于1986年开始执行。我国于1987年也成立了国家气候委员会,负责编制我国国家气候计划;组织协调我国开展气候资料研究、服务和气候领域的对外科技合作、交流等工作。在气候委员会下面相互设立气候研究和气候影响委员会,负责制定和实施气候变化的预测及其影响的研究计划。     

气候变化对中国北方荒漠草原植被的影响

气候变化对陆地生态系统的影响及其反馈是全球变化研究的焦点之一。利用气候变量实现对遥感植被指数所表示的植被绿度信息的模拟，可以尝试作为表达生物圈过去和未来状态的一种途径。利用1961-2000年的气温、降水和1983-1999年的NOAA/AVHRR资料，分析了中国北方地带性植被类型荒漠草原植被分布区的短尺度气候的年际和季节变化，及其对植被的影响。结果表明，过去40年中该区域年际气候变化表现为增温和降水波动。年NDVI的最大值（NDVI_max）可以较好地反映气候的变化，过去17年中NDVI_max出现的时间略有提前。综合分析NDVI、植被盖度、NPP、区域蒸散量、土壤含水量及其气候的年际变化，表明增温加剧了土壤干旱化，降水和土壤含水量仍是制约本区植被生长的根本原因。     

中国第四纪气候研究及对我国未来气候与环境变化的讨探

本文首先列述了中国第四纪气候研究中9种主要宏观气候标志:冰川作用遗迹、冰缘构造,哺乳动物、植物(含孢粉)、软体动物、有孔虫化石,岩性、岩溶及海平面升降等方面的特征。在此基础上,系统论述了中国第四纪以来气候演化与变革的历史。最后,作者对未来百年左右时期内,在全球增温发展趋势下,中国各地区气候与环境变化中可能出现的一些情况,作了初步的探讨。本文为中国未来气候的研究及其对工农业建设的影响,提供了重要的参考信息。     

浙江曹娥江下游XYC孔色度特征及其全新世环境记录

XYC孔位于钱塘江南岸曹娥江下游地区。在对1717个样品的色度、粒度、总有机碳(TOC)测试分析的基础上,重点探讨该钻孔沉积物色度特征及环境意义,并结合年代框架讨论该地区环境变化特征。初步结论如下:(1)钻孔沉积物呈现高亮度、较低黄度和低红度特征,纵向看,(1)、(2)层色度波动明显,(3)层至(8)层下段色度变化稳定,(8)层上段至(9)层色度波动变化再次增强,呈波动—稳定—再波动特征。(2)亮度值与砂含量及TOC含量相关性较好,沉积动力强,砂含量高,亮度值高;TOC含量高,亮度值低。黄度、彩度值与TOC含量呈较好负相关,对气候的状况及海面变化有较好指示意义。(3)色度及其变化过程指示多水或水下沉积环境,并在一定程度上响应该地区海平面变化以及河流相—潮坪相—浅海相—湖沼相的沉积相变化过程:9690—9107 cal a BP时段,该区以河流沉积为主,水动力变化不稳定,气候偏干,TOC含量较低,亮度高,红黄度低;9107—8613cal a BP时段,黄度、彩度值降低,气候转湿,半咸水贝类生物及毕克卷转虫为主的底栖有孔虫的出现,表明研究区发生海侵并逐步由低潮坪转为高潮坪环境;8613—7330 cal a BP时段,黄度、彩度值最低,气候更湿润,伴有正常盐度的异地希望虫和少量抱球虫、圆辐虫等浮游有孔虫,海面进一步上升,成为浅海环境;7330—5131 cal a BP时段,黄度、彩度值升高,海面降低,气候变干,研究区转化为湖沼环境,泥炭发育。     

特约主编致读者(Ⅱ)

全球气候正在经历快速、显著的变化,对许多领域产生了重大影响。气候变化极其复杂,包含季节至千年等不同时间尺度,其变化及机理存在较大差异。深入认识不同时间尺度的气候变化动力学过程与机理,实现古今气候的结合,是理解和应对全球及区域气候变化的关键。因此,为了更好地了解古今气候变化研究前沿及进展,特组织了“古今气候变化”专辑,共收集了11篇相关学术论文,以飨读者。 1.古气候中的沙尘变化及其气候影响 刘永岗等（2022）利用气候模式,针对前寒武时期、盘古超大陆时期、末次冰盛期和全新世中期的沙尘变化及其气候影响开展模拟研究,发现沙尘变化及其气候影响在上述时期之间存在较大差异。 2.青藏高原隆升气候效应的数值模拟研究进展概述 孙辉和刘晓东（2022）对有关青藏高原隆升气候效应的数值模拟研究进行了回顾,指出新生代以来青藏高原在隆升、生长和北移过程中,其动力和热力作用对东亚季风形成、南亚季风演化、内陆干旱化发展以及亚洲季风-干旱环境格局变迁都有重要影响。 3.上新世热带海道变化影响东亚气候的模拟研究 上新世早—中期热带海道变化对东亚气候的影响机理仍不清楚。谭宁等（2022）模拟了印尼海道收缩和巴拿马海道关闭对东亚气候的影响,指出热带海道的关闭/收缩导致东亚北部夏季气温降低、南部升高,冬季东亚大陆升温、降水减少。 4.第四纪两类千年尺度气候振荡现象及机理研究 张晓和张旭（2022）基于目前对DO和HS-DO两类千年事件的研究现状,总结了已有的可反映千年事件的重建数据,利用以往模拟工作回顾了现有的机制理论,评述了目前研究DO和HS-DO事件的局限性。 5.季节性海冰驱动的冰期北大西洋“电容器”效应 张旭等（2022）模拟了氧同位素3阶段的一个典型DO事件过程,探讨了冰阶冷期北大西洋气候变率的放大机制,表明北大西洋季节性海冰的存在可以调控海洋次表层热量积累释放的过程,产生“电容器”效应,这对理解冰期年际年代际气候变率放大现象有启示意义。 6.全新世亚洲季风百年-千年尺度变化的模拟研究进展 孙炜毅等（2022）从数值模拟的角度,回顾了全新世亚洲季风百年千年尺度变化的模拟工作,并从外强迫和内部变率这两个角度对机制进行了探讨,有助于深入理解全新世亚洲季风演变及机理。 7.全新世中期中国气候和东亚季风：PMIP4模式结果 田芝平等（2022）分析了多模式模拟的全新世中期中国气候和东亚季风变化,指出：全新世中期中国年和冬春季偏冷,夏秋季偏暖;降水、蒸发和有效降水的年变化较小,季节上均表现为冬春季减少,夏秋季增加;东亚冬、夏季风加强。 8.亚洲高山区全新世中期气候及其影响下的冰川模拟 燕青（2022）模拟了全新世中期亚洲高山区的气候变化,分析了亚洲高山区冰川变化及其区域性,探讨了温度和降水变化对冰川的作用,研究有助于加深理解全新世中期亚洲高山区冰川的变化格局和驱动机制。 9.陆面过程与天气研究 陈海山等（2022）从陆面基本要素、下垫面构成、陆面诱发的局地环流3个方面,回顾了土壤湿度、地形、土地利用、山谷-平原环流等要素和过程对强对流、暴雨、台风、高温热浪等天气事件影响研究的相关进展。 10.前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常对中国东部春季极端降水频次的可能影响及预测价值 张梦琪等（2022）的研究表明：前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常偏多时,北大西洋易出现经向三极型海温异常,该信号持续到春季并通过激发欧亚遥相关波列调制中国东部的动力和水汽条件,为春季极端降水发生提供有利背景环流。 11.中国区域性暴雨事件未来变化：RegCM4动力降尺度集合预估 周波涛等（2022）采用追踪式的客观识别方法,对中国区域性暴雨进行了识别,并从发生频次、持续时间、平均降水量、平均影响范围和综合强度5个方面预估了其未来变化,为应对气候变化提供了依据。     

要重视全球变化对我国北方沙区可能影响的研究

    讨论了全球变化及其对我国北方沙区可能影响的三个问题。首先，全球变化是人为因素与自然变化的藕合，不能忽视全球自然变化过程的研究;其次，沙漠的变化主要与气候
干湿变化有关，要注重研究未来增暖伴随的降水变化，预浏土地沙漠化未来发展趁势;第三，要研究土地沙漠化及其逆转对气候的反馈作用。
        

1960—2010年中国主要流域径流量减小原因探讨分析

针对1960—2010年径流量显著减少的中国主要流域,包括松花江、辽河、海河、黄河和汉江等,选择其上游地区受人类直接取用水影响较少的山区小流域,分析径流变化及其原因.采用基于Budyko假设的流域水热耦合平衡方程,估计了流域年径流量变化的气候弹性系数和下垫面弹性系数,并对各流域径流变化进行了归因分析.结果表明,在气候较为湿润的地区,径流对气候和下垫面变化均不敏感;在气候较为干燥的地区,径流对气候和下垫面变化都更为敏感,且区域差异性明显.潜在蒸散发的变化对径流减少的影响微弱,降水减少和下垫面变化是径流减少的主导因素,其中人类活动导致的下垫面变化对径流减少的影响尤为显著.对比两个阶段的径流变化归因分析结果,近10年间流域下垫面变化对年径流量的影响程度较前20年有显著增加.通过分析近30年的归一化植被指数(NDVI)数据发现,植被覆盖改善是下垫面变化的重要原因,说明中国水土保持工程发挥了显著生态效益的同时也导致了流域径流减小.     

公王岭蓝田人时期的季风气候特征

作者用目前在黄上与全球变化研究中使用较多、效果较好的气候代用指标,重建了公王岭蓝田人生活时期高分辨率的气候演变序列。从气候环境变迁的角度,研究了115MaBP的公王岭蓝田人及其伴生动物群与气候环境演化的关系。明确提出,蓝田人及其伴生动物群的死亡与夏季风剧烈衰减和冬季风猛烈增强的气候严重恶化事件有关。这种气候恶化除受与地球轨道变化密切相关的太阳辐射和全球冰量变化的影响外,还与青藏高原的剧烈隆升有关。     

Climate change and groundwater conditions in the Mekong Region–A review

Changes in the climatic system introduce uncertainties in the supply and management of water resources. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) predicts an increase of 2 to 4 °C over the next 100 years. Temperature increases will impact the hydrologic cycle by directly increasing the evaporation of surface water sources. Consequently, changes in precipitation will indirectly impact the flux and storage of water in surface and subsurface reservoirs(i.e., lakes, soil moisture, groundwater, etc.). In addition, increases in temperature contribute to increases in the sea level, which may lead to sea water intrusions, water quality deterioration, potable water shortages, etc. Climate change has direct impacts on the surface water and the control of storage in rivers, lakes and reservoirs, which indirectly controls the groundwater recharge process. The main and direct impact of climate change on groundwater is changes in the volume and distribution of groundwater recharge. The impact of climate change on groundwater resources requires reliable forecasting of changes in the major climatic variables and accurate estimations of groundwater recharge. A number of Global Climate Models(GCMs) are available for understanding climate and projecting climate change.These GCMs can be downscaled to a basin scale, and when they are coupled with relevant hydrological models, the output of these coupled models can be used to quantify the groundwater recharge, which will facilitate the adoption of appropriate adaptation strategies under the impact of climate change.     

Coastal Case Study-Clarence City Council

This report chooses Clarence City Council as the coastal jurisdiction and analyzes its planning processes and instruments for its potential to build resilience to climate change impacts on the coast. In the first part, it introduces the change of Australia’s climate and consequences of climate change. Based on analysis of sea level rise, inundation and erosion risk, it shows climate change has impacts on Clarence coastal areas in Tasmania. This paper shows the three key elements for successful coastal management (retreat, accommodation and protection) and discusses the factors that impede resilience. Finally, there are some recommendations that may be helpful for climate change impacts and local council     

过去2000年气候变化对中国经济与社会发展影响研究综述

It is one of the important focuses of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) to investigate the long-term impacts of climate change on regional social and economic development over the past two millenniums. The past decades in China have witnessed great progresses in the study of past climatic influence on human society. In this paper, reviews have been made on the latest proceedings related with researches about the past 2000-year climatic impacts on Chinese history in terms of the following three aspects: economic fluctuations, social stability, and the rise and fall of dynasties in China. It is concluded that climate change and socio-economic fluctuation in historical China really temporarily demonstrated a good coincidence, which indicates a potential driving-response mechanism was likely embedded in the complicated relationship between climate change and human society. A warm climate provided relatively stable conditions of agricultural production and thus generally played a positive role in the healthy development of the economy and society. On the contrary, socio-economic adverseness triggered by a colder climate was preconditioned with social problems such as the intensification of the contradiction between people and land, as well as the gradual accumulation of social rigidity. These social problems accompanying with social development contributed higher vulnerability of society in the face of changing climate, which to some extent might amplify the effects of climatic deterioration. The authors emphasize that the future studies of the relationship between past climate change and human history in China should attach more attention to the following key problems: making deeper exploitation of the potential of Chinese historical documents, exploring the mechanism of climate-society interaction, and studying the differences of climatic effects on socio-economic development at the regional scale. This study from a historical perspective might enhance the understanding of human-environment relationship under a situation of global warming, and also provide the scientific basis for the sustainable social development in China.     

中国历史时期气候变化影响及其应对的启示简

The social impact of global climate change is one of the hotspots in the current research. To deal with the challenges from climate change, it could be learned from the adapting experiences and lessons to climate change in the history. The main achievements of cognition on the historical impacts of climatic change in China and on coping with the climate changes in the future based the published papers in recent years is summarized. The followings are the main conclusions. ①The general characteristics of the impacts of climatic change in the history was negative in the cold periods and positive in the warm periods, but there were regional differences in the impact and responses. ②The cooling trend on centurial scale and the social economic decline run concurrently. The rapid development supported by better resources and environment in the warm period could lead to the increase of the social vulnerability when the climate turned to the cold period. ③Strategies and policies to cope with the climate change in the history were adopted according to the temporal and spatial circumstances and the subjects. Initiative adaptation promoted by governments was an effective way.     

An overview of climate change impacts on the society in China

Society could sustain the impact of climate change by adapting to the change and mitigating risks from adverse effects of increasing changes, so that it can continue maintaining its prospect and improving wellbeing. Nevertheless, climate change is more or less affecting society's functions at different scales, including both individuals and communities. In this review, we discuss the relationship between society and climate change in China from the aspects of the needs at different socioeconomic developing stages. The relationship as well as the current spatial pattern and future risks of the climate change impacts on societies are summarized. The complexity of social and climatic systems leads to the spatial heterogeneity of climate impacts and risks in China. To more effectively leverage increasing knowledge about the past, we advocate greater cross-disciplinary collaboration between climate adaption, poverty alleviation and Nature-based Solutions (Nbs). That could provide decision makers with more comprehensive train of thoughts for climate policy making.     

An overview of climate change impacts on the society in China

Society could sustain the impact of climate change by adapting to the change and mitigating risks from adverse effects of increasing changes, so that it can continue maintaining its prospect and improving wellbeing. Nevertheless, climate change is more or less affecting society's functions at different scales, including both individuals and communities. In this review, we discuss the relationship between society and climate change in China from the aspects of the needs at different socioeconomic developing stages. The relationship as well as the current spatial pattern and future risks of the climate change impacts on societies are summarized. The complexity of social and climatic systems leads to the spatial heterogeneity of climate impacts and risks in China. To more effectively leverage increasing knowledge about the past, we advocate greater cross-disciplinary collaboration between climate adaption, poverty alleviation and Nature-based Solutions (Nbs). That could provide decision makers with more comprehensive train of thoughts for climate policy making.     

An overview of climate change impacts on the society in China

Society could sustain the impact of climate change by adapting to the change and mitigating risks from adverse effects of increasing changes, so that it can continue maintaining its prospect and improving wellbeing. Nevertheless, climate change is more or less affecting society's functions at different scales, including both individuals and communities. In this review, we discuss the relationship between society and climate change in China from the aspects of the needs at different socioeconomic developing stages. The relationship as well as the current spatial pattern and future risks of the climate change impacts on societies are summarized. The complexity of social and climatic systems leads to the spatial heterogeneity of climate impacts and risks in China. To more effectively leverage increasing knowledge about the past, we advocate greater cross-disciplinary collaboration between climate adaption, poverty alleviation and Nature-based Solutions (Nbs). That could provide decision makers with more comprehensive train of thoughts for climate policy making.     

An overview of climate change impacts on the society in China

Society could sustain the impact of climate change by adapting to the change and mitigating risks from adverse effects of increasing changes, so that it can continue maintaining its prospect and improving wellbeing. Nevertheless, climate change is more or less affecting society's functions at different scales, including both individuals and communities. In this review, we discuss the relationship between society and climate change in China from the aspects of the needs at different socioeconomic developing stages. The relationship as well as the current spatial pattern and future risks of the climate change impacts on societies are summarized. The complexity of social and climatic systems leads to the spatial heterogeneity of climate impacts and risks in China. To more effectively leverage increasing knowledge about the past, we advocate greater cross-disciplinary collaboration between climate adaption, poverty alleviation and Nature-based Solutions (Nbs). That could provide decision makers with more comprehensive train of thoughts for climate policy making.     

An overview of climate change impacts on the society in China

Society could sustain the impact of climate change by adapting to the change and mitigating risks from adverse effects of increasing changes, so that it can continue maintaining its prospect and improving wellbeing. Nevertheless, climate change is more or less affecting society's functions at different scales, including both individuals and communities. In this review, we discuss the relationship between society and climate change in China from the aspects of the needs at different socioeconomic developing stages. The relationship as well as the current spatial pattern and future risks of the climate change impacts on societies are summarized. The complexity of social and climatic systems leads to the spatial heterogeneity of climate impacts and risks in China. To more effectively leverage increasing knowledge about the past, we advocate greater cross-disciplinary collaboration between climate adaption, poverty alleviation and Nature-based Solutions (Nbs). That could provide decision makers with more comprehensive train of thoughts for climate policy making.     

An overview of climate change impacts on the society in China

Society could sustain the impact of climate change by adapting to the change and mitigating risks from adverse effects of increasing changes, so that it can continue maintaining its prospect and improving wellbeing. Nevertheless, climate change is more or less affecting society's functions at different scales, including both individuals and communities. In this review, we discuss the relationship between society and climate change in China from the aspects of the needs at different socioeconomic developing stages. The relationship as well as the current spatial pattern and future risks of the climate change impacts on societies are summarized. The complexity of social and climatic systems leads to the spatial heterogeneity of climate impacts and risks in China. To more effectively leverage increasing knowledge about the past, we advocate greater cross-disciplinary collaboration between climate adaption, poverty alleviation and Nature-based Solutions (Nbs). That could provide decision makers with more comprehensive train of thoughts for climate policy making.