Evolution of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Indices, and Their Relationship: 1960?�C?2001

We employ annually averaged solar and geomagnetic activity indices for the period 1960??C?2001 to analyze the relationship between different measures of solar activity as well as the relationship between solar activity and various aspects of geomagnetic activity. In particular, to quantify the solar activity we use the sunspot number R _s, group sunspot number R _g, cumulative sunspot area Cum, solar radio flux F10.7, and interplanetary magnetic field strength IMF. For the geomagnetic activity we employ global indices Ap, Dst and Dcx, as well as the regional geomagnetic index RES, specifically estimated for the European region. In the paper we present the relative evolution of these indices and quantify the correlations between them. Variations have been found in: i) time lag between the solar and geomagnetic indices; ii) relative amplitude of the geomagnetic and solar activity peaks; iii) dual-peak distribution in some of solar and geomagnetic indices. The behavior of geomagnetic indices is correlated the best with IMF variations. Interestingly, among geomagnetic indices, RES shows the highest degree of correlation with solar indices.     

Relationship between interplanetary field/plasma parameters with geomagnetic indices and their behavior during intense geomagnetic storms

This paper presents a correlative study between the peak values of geomagnetic activity indices (Dst, Kp, ap and AE) and the peak values of various interplanetary field (Bt, Bz, E and σ_B) and plasma (T, D, V, P and β) parameters along with their various products (BV, BzV and B²V) during intense geomagnetic storms (GMSs) for rising, maximum and decay phases as well as for complete solar cycle 23. The study leads to the conclusion that the peak values of different geomagnetic activity indices are in good correlation with Bt, Bz, σ_B, V, E, BV, BzV and B²V, therefore these parameters are most useful for predicting GMSs and substorms. These parameters are also reliable indicators of the strength of GMSs. We have also presented the lag/lead time analysis between the maximum of Dst and peak values of geomagnetic activity indices, various interplanetary field/plasma parameters for all GMSs. We have found that the average of peak values of geomagnetic activity indices and various field/plasma parameters are larger in decay phase compare to rising and maximum phases of cycle 23. Our analyses show that average values of lag/lead time lie in the ≈?4.00 h interval for Kp, ap and AE indices as well as for Bt, Bz, σ_B, E, D and P. For a more meaningful analysis we have also presented the above study for two different groups G1 (CME-driven GMSs) and G2 (CIR-driven GMSs) separately. Correlation coefficients between various interplanetary field/plasma parameters, their various products and geomagnetic activity indices for G1 and G2 groups show different nature. Three GMSs and associated solar sources observed during three different phases of this solar cycle have also been studied and it is found that GMSs are associated with large flares, halo CMEs and their active regions are close to the solar equator.     

Solar cycle dependence of periodic variations in geomagnetic Kp-index

The geomagnetic K_p-index data for the 1932–1969 period have been investigated by means of a modified power spectrum technique on the basis of overlapping 2-yr intervals. The observed 27-, and 13.5-day periodicities show an obvious solar cycle dependence through the whole period concerned. Also, periodicities in the range of 9?4 days have been observed through years of minimum and decreasing phases of solar activity. The periodicities observed are found to be related to the existence of variations in the interplanetary medium structure which modulates the geomagnetic activity.     

Allowance for the geometry of solar wind interaction with the Earth’s magnetic field in geoeffective parameters and in the prediction of geomagnetic activity

We suggest geoeffective independent parameters that can be calculated on the basis of conventional measurements of the solar wind, which allows them to be used to forecast space weather. We present the results of our analysis of the ground variations in planetary geomagnetic activity (K _p ) and geoeffective parameters calculated on the basis of solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field measurements in the Earth’s orbit for the period 1964–1996 by taking into account the change in the orientation of the geomagnetic moment during the Earth’s diurnal and annual motions.     

Wavelet Analysis of solar,solar wind and geomagnetic parameters

The sunspot number, solar wind plasma, interplanetary magnetic field, and geomagnetic activity index A _p have been analyzed using a wavelet technique to look for the presence of periods and the temporal evolution of these periods. The global wavelet spectra of these parameters, which provide information about the temporal average strength of quasi periods, exhibit the presence of a variety of prominent quasi periods around 16 years, 10.6 years, 9.6 years, 5.5 years, 1.3 years, 180 days, 154 days, 27 days, and 14 days. The wavelet spectra of sunspot number during 1873–2000, geomagnetic activity index A _p during 1932–2000, and solar wind velocity and interplanetary magnetic field during 1964–2000 indicate that their spectral power evolves with time. In general, the power of the oscillations with a period of less than one year evolves rapidly with the phase of the solar cycle with their peak values changing from one cycle to the next. The temporal evolution of wavelet power in R _z, v _sw, n, B _y, B _z, |B|, and A _p for each of the prominent quasi periods is studied in detail.     

Geomagnetic activity and Hale sector boundaries

The variation of the geomagnetic activity index A_p at the IMF sector boundaries (+ to ? and ? to +) has been studied for three solar cycles, separating data into vernal and autumnal equinoxes. It was found that a reported increase in A_p as an effect of a Hale boundary can be better attributed to the occurrence of a negative IMF B_z component in the geocentric solar magnetospheric coordinate system and to the occurrence of high speed solar wind streams.     

Heliospheric Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays During Solar Cycle 23

Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) encounter an outward-moving solar wind with cyclic magnetic-field fluctuation and turbulence. This causes convection and diffusion in the heliosphere. The GCR counts from the ground-based neutron monitor stations show intensity changes that are anti-correlated with the sunspot numbers with a lag of a few months. GCRs experience various types of modulation from different solar activity features and influence space weather and the terrestrial climate. In this work, we investigate certain aspects of the GCR modulation at low cut-off rigidity (R _c≈1 GV) in relation to some solar and geomagnetic indices for the entire solar cycle 23 (1996?–?2008). We separately study the GCR modulation during the ascending phase of cycle 23 including its maximum (1996?–?2002) and the descending phase including its minimum (2003?–?2008). We find that during the descending phase, the GCR recoveries are much faster than those of the solar parameters with negative time-lag. The results are discussed in light of modulation models, including drift effects and previous results.     

Solar Rotational Periodicities and the Semiannual Variation in the Solar Wind, Radiation Belt, and Aurora

The behavior of a number of solar wind, radiation belt, auroral and geomagnetic parameters is examined during the recent extended solar minimum and previous solar cycles, covering the period from January 1972 to July 2010. This period includes most of the solar minimum between Cycles 23 and 24, which was more extended than recent solar minima, with historically low values of most of these parameters in 2009. Solar rotational periodicities from 5 to 27 days were found from daily averages over 81 days for the parameters. There were very strong 9-day periodicities in many variables in 2005?–?2008, triggered by recurring corotating high-speed streams (HSS). All rotational amplitudes were relatively large in the descending and early minimum phases of the solar cycle, when HSS are the predominant solar wind structures. There were minima in the amplitudes of all solar rotational periodicities near the end of each solar minimum, as well as at the start of the reversal of the solar magnetic field polarity at solar maximum (～?1980, ～?1990, and ～?2001) when the occurrence frequency of HSS is relatively low. Semiannual equinoctial periodicities, which were relatively strong in the 1995?–?1997 solar minimum, were found to be primarily the result of the changing amplitudes of the 13.5- and 27-day periodicities, where 13.5-day amplitudes were better correlated with heliospheric daily observations and 27-day amplitudes correlated better with Earth-based daily observations. The equinoctial rotational amplitudes of the Earth-based parameters were probably enhanced by a combination of the Russell-McPherron effect and a reduction in the solar wind-magnetosphere coupling efficiency during solstices. The rotational amplitudes were cross-correlated with each other, where the 27-day amplitudes showed some of the weakest cross-correlations. The rotational amplitudes of the >?2 MeV radiation belt electron number fluxes were progressively weaker from 27- to 5-day periods, showing that processes in the magnetosphere act as a low-pass filter between the solar wind and the radiation belt. The A _p/K _p magnetic currents observed at subauroral latitudes are sensitive to proton auroral precipitation, especially for 9-day and shorter periods, while the A _p/K _p currents are governed by electron auroral precipitation for 13.5- and 27-day periodicities.     

Short-Period Features of the Interplanetary Plasma and Their Evolution

The solar wind plasma exhibits many features of the solar surface passed on to the interplanetary medium as temporal variations due to the solar rotation. The yearly average values of solar wind velocity, and geomagnetic index A _p during 1965–1999 were found to exhibit long period evolution. They were found to peak around the declining phase of each solar cycle. While the solar wind velocity peaks around the second half of the declining phase, the IMF field strength increases around the first half of the declining phase of each solar cycle. The power spectrum of these parameters shows peaks around 37-day, 30-day, 27-day, 13.5-day, 9-day, and 7-day periods. The temporal evolution of the power spectrum of the solar wind plasma parameters and the geomagnetic activity index A _p are also studied in detail and presented with the help of contour graphs. These studies indicate that the strength of the quasi-periodicities in the interplanetary medium evolves with time.     

Investigation of heliogeoactivity impact on the dynamics of orbital parameters of Earth’s artificial satellites. I

The influence of active processes on the Sun and their response on the dynamics of Earth’s artificial satellites has been investigated. The relationship between the characteristics of solar activity and variations of the periods P of the orbital motion of Earth’s artificial satellites has been found. These variations mainly indicate the variations in the Earth’s atmosphere density caused by solar activity (index F_10.7) and geomagnetic activity (ΣK_p index). High values of the correlation coefficients between P and ^F_10.7 (–0.77…–0.91) and between P and ΣK_p (–0.67…–0.89) exhibit significant effect of solar and geomagnetic activity on the orbital periods of satellites.     

Geoactive zones in the solar wind

Three parameters of the solar wind, proton number density n, Z-component of frozen-in magnetic field, in solar ecliptic coordinates and magnetic field variability ΔB, may be called geoactive parameters since each of them is responsible for a certain phase or stage of a geomagnetic storm.An undisturbed solar corpuscular stream differs from the quiet solar wind mainly in higher bulk velocity v; other parameters, in particular, n, Z and ΔB, are not enhanced in the stream. However, the examination of a number of geomagnetic storms shows that v is not a geoactive parameter. Hence the corpuscular stream itself is not more geoactive than the quiet solar wind.The retarding of corpuscular stream by the quiet solar wind results in various plasma deformations (compression, torsion, shear). This, in turn, leads to the creation, in the stream and ambient quiet solar wind, of geoactive zones. Each zone is characterized by the enhancement of some geoactive parameter. The entry of the Earth into a geoactive zone causes a corresponding phase or stage of a geomagnetic storm.The concept of geoactive zones is applied to the analysis of the geomagnetic storm of 8–10 July 1966.     

The representation of the semi-annual variation of the geomagnetic activity by an annual sine wave

The seasonal variation of the geomagnetic activity shows two sharp maxima (in March and September) and two broader minima (in June and December). It can only poorly be described by a double sine wave. The double phase wave of geomagnetic activity can be transformed - by vertical mirroring of the half year part between the maxima - into a single phase wave, which is represented well by a single sine function. This function is determined here for C _i (the daily international character figure of geomagnetic activity) and for A _p (the equivalent daily amplitude, based on K _p, the geomagnetic planetary three-hour-range indices), for both in their ratios to the mean value over the year and then averaged over many years. To remove part of the irregularities the daily values of C _i and A _p were corrected for solar activity and reduced to quiet Sun circumstances. Mirroring back to the double phase function the geomagnetic variation is then represented by $$Ci({\text{or }}Ap) = Cm({\text{or }}Ap,m) - |A{\text{ sin}}(\lambda - \varphi )|$$ , in which m means the mirror value, A is the amplitude of the single sine curve, λ runs parallel to the Sun's longitude, ? is the phase constant and the bars indicate the absolute value. The data of the first maximum of the seasonal variation was found to vary between March 18 and 28 for different groups of years. The sharpness of the maxima may point out a resonance in the interaction between the solar wind and the magnetosphere. In the appendix the relation \(Ci = aR^{{1 \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {1 2}} \right. \kern-0em} 2}} + b\) (R being the relative sunspot number) is brought forward. The values of the parameter b through the eleven-year period reveal an increasing influence of sunspot-free regions towards the minimum.     

Forbush Decreases Associated with Western Solar Sources and Geomagnetic Storms: A Study on Precursors

As suggested in many studies the pre-increases or pre-decreases of the cosmic ray intensity (known as precursors), which usually precede a Forbush decrease, could serve as a useful tool for studying space weather effects. The events in this study were chosen based on two criteria. Firstly, the heliolongitude of the solar flare associated with each cosmic ray intensity decrease was in the 50°?–70°W sector and, secondly, the values of the geomagnetic activity index, Kp _max, were ≥?5. Twenty five events were selected from 1967 to 2006. We have used data on solar flares, solar wind speed, geomagnetic indices (Kp and Dst), and interplanetary magnetic field in our detailed analysis. The asymptotic longitudinal cosmic ray distribution diagrams were plotted using the “Ring of Stations” method for all the events. The results reveal clear signs of precursors in 60 % of selected events.     

Evolution of Cosmic-Ray Intensities While the Earth Was Engulfed by the Interplanetary Storm (Blob) of 1 – 3 October 2013

When a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is ejected by the Sun, it reaches the Earth orbit in a modified state and is called an ICME (Interplanetary CME). When an ICME blob engulfs the Earth, short-scale cosmic-ray (CR) storms (Forbush decreases, FDs) occur, sometimes accompanied by geomagnetic Dst storms, if the B _z component in the blob is negative. Generally, this is a sudden process that causes abrupt changes. However, sometimes before this abrupt change (FD) due to strong ICME blobs, there are slow, small changes in interplanetary parameters such as steady increases in solar wind speed V, which are small, but can last for several hours. In the present communication, CR changes in such an event are illustrated in the period 1?–?3 October 2013, when V increased steadily from ～?200 km?s^?1 to ～?400 km?s^?1 during 24 hours on 1 October 2013. The CR intensities decreased by 1?–?2 % during some hours of this 24-hour interval, indicating that CR intensities do respond to these weak but long-lasting increases in interplanetary solar wind speed.     

Short-term critical frequency variations and their predictions in the midlatitude ionospheric F2 region

Short-term variations δf₀F₂ in the values of the critical frequency of the ionospheric F2 region in middle latitudes due to solar and geomagnetic activities have been investigated. Diurnal and seasonal features of the energy flow from the auroral into midlatitude ionosphere are revealed. It is shown that they could be taken into account if instead of the 3-hour geomagnetic indices or their daily averages a new index is employed which characterizes the average level of geomagnetic activity over intervals of time no less than nine hours usually during the evening and night hours. A technique for short-term predicting δf₀F₂ in the midlatitude ionosphere is developed which employs the indices of solar and geomagnetic activities, and errors in the predictions are estimated.     

A study of geomagnetic storms at Beijing in terms of solar wind

With the aid of the Akasofu's energy coupling function between the solar wind and the magnetosphere, we have made in this paper an analysis of about 20 geomagnetic storms recorded at Beijing during the period of years 1966 to 1972. There is a close correlation between the energy coupling function ? and the geomagnetic indices a_p and K_p. All in all an empirical formula as ? ～ 1?2 × 10¹⁷a_p has been found for the geomagnetic storms occurred in a low latitude station, i.e. Beijing of China. Comparisons of the horizontal component H_max (in γ) and ?(10¹⁸ erg s^?1) in Table 1 indicate that the development of storm main phase at Beijing depends very much on the ? values thus involved. Also, these are well illustrated for several individual storms as mentioned in the second section of the paper. In concluding this paper some brief discussions are made and included. It is hoped that geomagnetic observations in the middle and low latitudes from our vast country should make further contributions to the study of solar wind-magnetosphere coupling, including the Akasofu's energy coupling function.     

High Speed Stream Properties and Related Geomagnetic Activity During the Whole Heliosphere Interval (WHI): 20 March to 16 April 2008

We study the interplanetary features and concomitant geomagnetic activity of the two high-speed streams (HSSs) selected by the Whole Heliosphere Interval (WHI) campaign participants: 20 March to 16 April 2008 in Carrington rotation (CR) 2068. This interval was chosen to perform a comprehensive study of HSSs and their geoeffectiveness during this ??deep?? solar minimum. The two HSSs within the interval were characterized by fast solar-wind speeds (peak values >?600 km?s^?1) containing large-amplitude Alfvénic fluctuations, as is typical of HSSs during normal solar minima. However, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude [B _o] was exceptionally low (??3??C?5 nT) during these HSSs, leading to lower than usual IMF B _z values. The first HSS (HSS1) had favorable IMF polarity for geomagnetic activity (negative during northern Spring). The average AE and Dst for the HSS1 proper (HSS1P) were +?258 nT and ??21 nT, respectively. The second HSS (HSS2) had a positive sector IMF polarity, one that is less favorable for geomagnetic activity. The AE and Dst index averages were +?188 nT and ??7 nT, both lower than corresponding numbers for the first event, as expected. The HSS1P geomagnetic activity is comparable to, and the HSS2P geomagnetic activity lower than, corresponding observations for the previous minimum (1996). Both events?? geomagnetic activities are lower than HSS events previously studied in the declining phase (in 2003). In general, V _sw was faster for the HSSs in 2008 compared to 1996. The southward IMF B _z was lower in the former. The product of these two parameters [V _sw and IMF B _z ] comprises the solar-wind electric field, which is most directly associated with the energy input into the magnetosphere during the HSS intervals. Thus the combined effects led to the solar wind energy input in 2008 being slightly less than that in 1996. A detailed analysis of magnetic-field variances and Alfvénicity is performed to explore the characteristics of Alfvén waves (a central element in the geoeffectiveness of HSSs) during the WHI. The B _z variances in the proto-CIR (PCIR) were ???30 nT² and <?10 nT² in the high speed streams proper.     

A solar cycle variation of the interplanetary magnetic field

Measurements of the north-south (B _z component of the interplanetary field as compiled by King (1975) when organized into yearly histograms of the values of ¦B _z ¦ reveal the following. (1) The histograms decrease exponentially from a maximum occurrence frequency at the value ¦B _z ¦ = 0. (2) The slope of the exponential on a semi-log plot varies systematically roughly in phase with the sunspot number in such a way that the probability of large values of ¦B _z ¦ is much greater in the years near sunspot maximum than in the years near sunspot minimum. (3) There is a sparsely populated high-value tail, for which the data are too meager to discern any solar cycle variation. The high-value tail is perhaps associated with travelling interplanetary disturbances. (4) The solar cycle variations of B _z and the ordinary indicators of solar activity are roughly correlated. (5) The solar cycle variation of B _z is distinctly different than that of the solar wind speed and that of the geomagnetic Ap disturbance index.Now at the Aerospace Corporation, El Segundo, Calif. 90245, U.S.A.     

Geoeffectiveness of interplanetary shocks during solar minimum (1995–1996) and solar maximum (2000)

Plasma and magnetic field parameter variations across fast forward interplanetary shocks are analyzed during the last solar cycle minimum (1995–1996, 15 shocks), and maximum year 2000 (50 shocks). It was observed that the solar wind velocity and magnetic field strength variation across the shocks were the parameters better correlated with Dst. Superposed epoch analysis centered on the shock showed that, during solar minimum, B _z profiles had a southward, long-duration variation superposed with fluctuations, whereas in solar maximum the B _z profile presented 2 peaks. The first peak occurred 4 hr after the shock, and seems to be associated with the magnetic field disturbed by the shock in the sheath region. The second peak occurred 19 hr after the shock, and seems to be associated with the ejecta fields. The difference in shape and peak in solar maximum (Dst peak =−50 nT, moderate activity) and minimum (Dst peak =−30 nT, weak activity) in average Dst profiles after shocks are, probably, a consequence of the energy injection in the magnetosphere being driven by different interplanetary southward magnetic structures. A statistical distribution of geomagnetic activity levels following interplanetary shocks was also obtained. It was observed that during solar maximum, 36% of interplanetary shocks were followed by intense (Dst≤−100 nT) and 28% by moderate (−50≤Dst <−100 nT) geomagnetic activity. During solar minimum, 13% and 33% of the shocks were followed by intense and moderate geomagnetic activity, respectively. Thus, during solar maximum a higher relative number of interplanetary shocks might be followed by intense geomagnetic activity than during solar minimum. One can extrapolate, for forecasting goals, that during a whole solar cycle a shock has a probability of around 50–60% to be followed by intense/moderate geomagnetic activity.     

Visibility-Graph Analysis of the Solar Wind Velocity

We analyze in situ measurements of the solar wind velocity obtained by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) and the Helios spacecraft during the years 1998?–?2012 and 1975?–?1983, respectively. The data mainly belong to solar cycles 23 (1996?–?2008) and 21 (1976?–?1986). We used the directed horizontal-visibility-graph (DHVg) algorithm and estimated a graph functional, namely, the degree distance (D), which is defined using the Kullback–Leibler divergence (KLD) to understand the time irreversibility of solar wind time-series. We estimated this degree-distance irreversibility parameter for these time-series at different phases of the solar activity cycle. The irreversibility parameter was first established for known dynamical data and was then applied to solar wind velocity time-series. It is observed that irreversibility in solar wind velocity fluctuations show a similar behavior at 0.3 AU (Helios data) and 1 AU (ACE data). Moreover, the fluctuations change over the phases of the activity cycle.