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以累计频度定量计算方法,分区讨论了河南及邻区1970年以来地震活动非线性度ZL值的时间进程曲线,系统计算了M≥5.0级地震前的ZL值,结果表明:开始出现活跃(平静)异常的时间集中在地震前1—2年,结束异常的时间在地震前一年内,集中于0—4个月。同时提出了异常的定量指标以及发震类型。 相似文献
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主成分分析法在地震预测中的应用研究 总被引:10,自引:0,他引:10
用1979年7月9日江苏溧阳6.0级地震前后震中附近地区的地震资料,选择与地震活动强度有关的3级以上地震的频次N、b值、η值、A(b)值、Mf值和Ac值等6个参量进行主成分分析,实现对上述参量的有效约减。这6个参量之间具有一定的相关性,各参量在不同时段的变化各有所异,预报效果并不理想。但是根据主成分分析可以得到反应地震强度异常特征的综合指标形,发现该指标在2次溧阳地震前出现明显的异常变化,震后异常恢复。表明综合指标形可以较好地反映地震活动异常增强的特征。文章还对与主成分分析所得结论的有关问题进行了讨论。 相似文献
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以定量描述地震活动性的A(6)值作参数,利用1971—2000年川滇地区M≥2.5地震资料进行空间扫描。结果表明,川滇地区有72%的M≥6.0地震在震前1—2a,在震中周围出现A(b)值异常。用R值对其进行评分,通过检验。 相似文献
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极限时间法分析2003年中强地震前h′值异常变化过程 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
选择2003年2月24日巴楚-伽师6.8级地震和2003年2月14日石河子4.9、5.4级地震震前、震后序列,分析其h'值在中强地震前的异常变化过程,统计其h'值的异常峰值出现时间与发震时间的优势时段。算例结果显示,中强地震发生前h'值确实存在异常波动变化,地震越大异常变化幅度越显著。不同地区因为地震活动性强度不同,h'值的绝对量级也不尽相同,但一般来说中强地震前h’值存在高值突变,可将其作为短临预报参考依据之一。 相似文献
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宁蒗6.2级地震活动异常动态演变图象与序列主要特征 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
1998年11月19日云南宁蒗发生了6.2级地震,根据震前震源区及周围地区中小地震活动异常图像,分析研究了区域应力场作用下,震源区介质由稳定状态进行入稳定状态过程地震活动异常动态演变特征。同时,根据序列参数h、b值的动态变化,给出序列异常变化特征。主要特征为:1.地震孕育中期阶段,3级以上地震活动主要分布在震源外围地区,震源区高度平静;地震孕育发展至短期阶段,震源外围地震活动消失,震源周围地震活动迅速增强,且随着地震的逼近,地震活动逐渐向震源区收缩;至短临阶段,孕震区出现显的小震群活动。2.宁蒗6.2级地震在其5.3级地震前,震群发育,震群参数h值小于1.0,且随着地震的逼近,震群参数h值逐渐减少、b值逐渐增大。3.5.2级前震和6.2级震前,序列参数h值均出现明显快速减小的动态异常过程。此外,5.3、5.2级前震后,其2级以上余震衰减迅速,且余震又少又小。 相似文献
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应用应力调制图像法对辽宁地区1970年以来的21次ML≥5.0地震进行了检验。结果显示,有18次地震的震前出现了S值异常单元,虚报地震11次,漏报3次,R值评分0.58。 相似文献
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Michael O. Garcia Diane Hanano Ashton Flinders Dominique Weis Garrett Ito Mark D. Kurz 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2012,74(6):1445-1463
The size, shape, and magmatic history of the most recently discovered shield volcano in the Hawaiian Islands, Mahukona, have been controversial. Mahukona corresponds to what was thought to be a gap in the paired sequence (Loa and Kea trends) of younger Hawaiian volcanoes (<4?Ma). Here, we present the results of marine expeditions to Mahukona where new bathymetry, sidescan sonar, gravity data, and lava samples were collected to address these controversies. Modeling of bathymetric and gravity data indicate that Mahukona is one of the smallest Hawaiian volcanoes (~6,000?km3) and that its magmatic system was not focused in a long-lived central reservoir like most other Hawaiian volcanoes. This lack of a long-lived magmatic reservoir is reflected by the absence of a central residual gravity high and the random distribution of cones on Mahukona Volcano. Our reconstructed subsidence history for Mahukona suggests it grew to at least ~270?m below sea level but probably did not form an island. New 40Ar–39Ar plateau ages range from 350 to 654?ka providing temporal constraints for Mahukona’s post-shield and shield stages of volcanism, which ended prematurely. Mahukona post-shield lavas have high 3He/4He ratios (16–21?Ra), which have not been observed in post-shield lavas from other Hawaiian volcanoes. Lava compositions range widely at Mahukona, including Pb isotopic values that straddle the boundary between Kea and Loa sequences of volcanoes. The compositional diversity of Mahukona lavas may be related to its relatively small size (less extensive melting) and the absence of a central magma reservoir where magmas would have been homogenized. 相似文献
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In this study, we have checked the location and focal depth of the Yecheng earthquake (m b = 6.0, maximum intensity VII) of February 14, 1980. The result shows that this is an intermediate event with a focal depth of 90 km. The microepicenter is located at 36. 4°N, 76, 9°E, while the macroepicenter is at 37.3°N, 76.9°E, 90 km to the north of the microepicenter. This is the first destructive intermediate event in China which led to a damage as severe as of intensity VII. The focal mechanism of the event is determined to be of thrust type. Combined with the analysis of seismological and geological data in surrounding area, the possible relation between the event and plate movement has been discussed. The result in this paper indicates that in some particular place, the destructive effect of intermediate event should be considered in seismic hazard assessment. 相似文献
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Earthquake of November 30, 2004, in Podhale region, southern Poland, was of unexpectedly big size in this area of weak seismicity.
As Poland is considered a country of low seismicity, the earthquake has caused concern about seismic hazard in Poland, especially
since it took place shortly after the even more unexpected Kaliningrad Region, Russia, earthquakes of September 21, 2004,
that inflicted minor damage in northern Poland. The paper presents the findings on the Podhale earthquake which reached macroseismic
intensity up to 7 and magnitude 4.7 (m
b
; ISC). The event was felt up to a distance of about 100 km and inflicted slight damage to buildings in its narrow epicentral
area, thus evidencing its relatively shallow depth. The quake has been located near the village of Skrzypne, about 15 km west-southwest
of the district capital Nowy Targ. The source mechanism has been found to be of dip slip normal fault type, although a problem
remains of association of this mechanism with known tectonic dislocations in the region. The earthquake has been followed
by a long series of aftershocks. Their distribution in time is also studied and the biggest aftershocks have been located. 相似文献
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Drop calorimetry measurements between 900 and 1850 K are reported for amorphous anorthite, andesine, wollastonite, diopside, cordierite and pyrope. The isobaric heat capacities of the glassy and liquid phases of these materials, and the enthalpies of fusion of the minerals have been derived. The calorimetric entropies of fusion of these substances and of other oxide minerals are generally consistent with the calculated volume changes on melting and with the observed pressure dependences of the melting points. The thermodynamics of mixing of liquid plagioclases have been examined, and it is concluded that their enthalpies of mixing are markedly different from the values derived directly from solution calorimetry measurements at 985 K. 相似文献
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In this study, we experimentally established the relationship between physical properties, vitrinite reflectance, and microstructure of coal, Taiyuan Formation, Qinshui Basin, China using representative coal samples collected from three different mines via the rock mechanics testing system (MTS). We analyzed the organic macerals, vitrinite reflectance, and microstructure of 11 coal samples using petrography and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The experimental results suggest that (1) the elastic parameters can be described by linear equations, (2) both P-and S-wave velocities display anisotropy, (3) the anisotropy negatively correlates with vitrinite reflectance, and (4) the acoustic velocities and Young’s modulus are negatively correlated with the volume of micropores. The derived empirical equations can be used in the forward modeling and seismic inversion of physical properties of coal for improving the coal-bed methane (CBM) reservoir characterization. 相似文献
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Facets of uncertainty: epistemic uncertainty,non-stationarity,likelihood, hypothesis testing,and communication 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Keith Beven 《水文科学杂志》2016,61(9):1652-1665
ABSTRACTThis paper presents a discussion of some of the issues associated with the multiple sources of uncertainty and non-stationarity in the analysis and modelling of hydrological systems. Different forms of aleatory, epistemic, semantic, and ontological uncertainty are defined. The potential for epistemic uncertainties to induce disinformation in calibration data and arbitrary non-stationarities in model error characteristics, and surprises in predicting the future, are discussed in the context of other forms of non-stationarity. It is suggested that a condition tree is used to be explicit about the assumptions that underlie any assessment of uncertainty. This also provides an audit trail for providing evidence to decision makers.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Weijs 相似文献
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Abu Sayeed Shafiuddin Ahmed Mohammad Belal Hossain Saad Mohammad Omar Faruque Babu Moshiur Rahman Jun Sun Mohammad Shafiqul Islam Sarker 《国际泥沙研究》2022,37(1):83-96
Sediment samples from the Gomti River basin were investigated to determine and evaluate trace metal concentrations,their biological effect,and potential ecological and human health risks for adults and children.The mean concentrations of trace metals were organized in the descending order of mercury(Hg)(0.08 mg/kg)>chromium(Cr)(0.06 mg/kg)>lead(Pb)(0.05 mg/kg)>arsenic(As)(0.02 mg/kg)>cadmium(Cd)(0.01 mg/kg).The current study illustrated that metals were attributed to the area from natural sources and different anthropogenic sources especially from industries.However,the concentration levels were lower than the sediment quality guidelines(SQGs)based on the effect-range classifications of threshold effect concentration(TEC)and probable effect concentration(PEC).Therefore,the concentration of the elements showed no adverse biological effects on aquatic organisms.The evaluated potential ecological risk index also revealed the low toxicity to the aquatic environment.Moreover,the applied sediment quality indices,geo-accumulation index(Igeo),contamination factor(CF),and contamination severity index(CSI)suggested that the contamination levels of the elements were in the acceptable range,and the contamination had not notably impacted on the sediment quality.The risk index(HI)concerning age groups was significantly less than the threshold limit of 1 indicating that the contamination had no non-carcinogenic risk effect.The total carcinogenic risk(TCR)was less than a risk value of 1×104.Hence,the current study suggests that immediate remediation is not required due to an absence of alarming conditions in the study area.Proper monitoring of the attribution of the metal elements should be done for the betterment of human and environmental health。 相似文献