地震预报专家系统ESEP 3.0中的知识表示方法

知识表示是专家系统建造中的一个关键环节，知识表示方法的好坏直接关系到系统的智能水平和解决问题的能力。在地震预报专家系统ESEP3．0中有多种知识表示方法，本文介绍了该系统的结构知识、地震学和前兆预报知识、机器学习知识、综合预报知识、确定异常证据可信度知识以及支持知识等多种知识表示方法，提出了确定异常证据可信度模型。这些知识表示方法可以很好地表示各类地震预报知识。     

地震前兆异常证据可信度

就确定地震前兆异常证据可信度的原则、思路和计算方法进行了研究, 并举例说明。目的是根据各学科地震分析预报方法指南的内容, 采用较统一的确定方法来获得22项地震前兆异常(空区、条带、b值、C值、波速比、地震活动异常增强、地震活动异常平静、地震窗、震群、地震序列、尾波、P波初动、应力降、地电、地磁、地应力、地倾斜、水物理、水氧和水化、重力、空间环境、宏观异常)的异常证据可信度, 配合地震预报专家系统的推广应用。      

地震前兆异常证据可信度的应用

地震前兆异常证据可信度的应用郑兆，张军，庆梅（中国合肥２３００３１安徽省地震局）主题词专家系统，地震前兆，可信度我们曾就确定地震前兆异常证据可信度（以下简写为ＣＦ（Ｅ））的原则、思路和计算方法进行了研究（郑兆，１９９４）．根据各学科地震分析预报方法指...     

多项地震前兆观测数据的综合参数

根据中强地震前前兆观测资料的异常特征和各种前兆异常可信度的差异,考虑到单项观测数据和多项观测数据的相互联系,提出了用综合参数S描述多项前兆观测数据整体变化。结果表明,与单项前兆观测数据比较,综合参数S有变化平稳、震前异常反应明显等优点,可以作为地震预报实践中识别前兆异常的方法之一。     

祁连山地震带地下流体短期前兆异常特征分析

系统分析了地下流体短期前兆异常变化与中强地震的关系,提出祁连山地震带地下流体资料存在两类短期前兆异常,即转折型和单一型短期前兆异常,结合震例对这两类短期前兆异常的特征进行了分析,认为预报人员应特别注意该区内的这两类群体异常的特点,并把它应用到该区的地震预报中。     

地震预报专家系统ESEP3．0中的相关证据改正方法

在实际地震预报中，所出现的异常证据常常具有相关性。使用MYCIN不精确推理模型时，须注意的一个问题是当异常证据严重相关时，其结果偏离较大，这是由于它通常只适用于证据条件是相互独立的情况。为消除证据间的相关性，中提出了二种相关改正方法，在实际应用中取得了满意的结果。     

基于粒子群算法的地震预报方法研究

针对地震预测中定量计算的困难性,利用地震前兆异常高维数据特征,研究一种基于粒子群聚类算法的地震预报模型。该模型输入为条带、空区、短水准等14项异常指标数据,输出为震级分类。模型设定聚类平均距离为粒子群算法的评价函数,发掘分析地震前兆数据与地震震级的关系。结果表明该模型能有效地根据地震前兆数据预测地震震级,与传统聚类k-means算法模型相比,稳定性强,预报准确性更高。历史地震数据实例研究表明,本文提出的模型充分利用了粒子群算法的高鲁棒性、高适应性和群体智能的协同策略,是改进地震预报效能的途径之一。     

地震预报的证据理论方法

概率论和数理统计方法一直是地震预报中处理不确定性的主要方法，但在很多情况下并不是特别有效。本引进了一种新的不确定性处理方法一证据理论方法，介绍了如何用该理论表达地震预报问题。讨论了应用其D-S合成规则进行预报的一般过程，并根据地震综合预报的特点，提出了加权的D-S规则。研究结果表明，证据理论应用于地震预报有其独特的优点。     

利用专家系统不精确推理方法确定未来地震危险区

本文将专家系统中的MYCIN不精确推理方法推广应用到地震预报中。据此得到一套确立发震可信度分布及确定未来地震危险区的理论与方法,并对一些实际震例及资料进行了检验。     

综合预报中的几个关系

本文根据地震预报实践,论述了地震预报中异常的量和质、时间和空间微观和宏现等几个关系。深入研究这些关系,对地震预报是必不可少的。     

张家口地震台连续重力异常分析

张家口地震台gPhone连续重力观测仪潮汐因子自2016年6月出现持续下降的趋势变化,累计变化量达到7×10-3.分析重力残差曲线,异常出现时同期残差数据未出现同步变化;将去零漂前后潮汐因子的变化情况进行对比分析,发现潮汐因子变化趋势一致,排除仪器调零影响;针对新建楼房可能引起的重力变化,建立了重力正演模型,计算结果显...     

地震学预报方法综合程式的研究

本文将专家系统技术中的 MYCIN 不精确推理方法推广应用到地震学方法的综合预报中,给出了一套确定各类可信度,对异常证据进行相关改正及其计算发震综合信度的方法.并据此利用华北地区1966年以来的18次震例在各阶段的地震学异常进行了检验,求出相应的发震综合信度.最后对应用中的一些问题进行了讨论.      

A Versatile Nonlinear Inversion to Interpret Gravity Anomaly Caused by a Simple Geometrical Structure

A geophysical interpretative method is proposed to depth, amplitude coefficient and geometrical shape factor determination of a buried structure from an observed gravity anomaly related to a cylinder or a sphere-like structure.The method is based on nonlinearly constrained mathematical modelling and also on stochastic optimization approaches. The proposed interpretative method first has been tested on theoretical synthetic models with different random errors at a certain depth, where a very close agreement has been observed between assumed and evaluated parameters. Subsequent field data have been considered for which the interpreted results by other methods are available for comparison. The agreement between the obtained results by the proposed technique and by other geophysical methods is good. A statistical analysis has been also carried out to demonstrate the accuracy and the precision of the suggested interpretative method.     

汤池1号井水氡高值异常原因分析

庐江地震台汤池1号井的水氡测值从2009年4月8开始有小幅趋势性上升,8月4日至8月8日,上升速度加快(8月7日升至11.4 Bq/L),8月19日数值恢复正常。本研究从地震前兆异常落实的角度出发,在仪器运行、观测环境、水文地质、人为因素,仪器标定参数、同一井中其他测项的数据变化、同一地热区其他热水井水样数据的对比等方面进行分析,并结合以往水氡资料的映震实例,初步判定此异常为前兆异常。此项工作对今后异常的判断、识别提供了方法和依据。     

华北地下释放氦、氢气体异常的时、空、强特征及其与地震关系的探讨

在系统整理华北９个气体观测井多年观测资料基础上，初步探讨了华北地下释放氦、氢异常的时、空、强特征及其与发震时间、地点、震级的关系，从而总结为以京棉二厂井的氦、氢异常为依据，其它测点的氦、氢异常为参考，预报华北北部５级以上地震的初步经验     

山东省定点形变倾斜观测异常指标研究

在研究我省形变台多年观测资料的基础上,提取各台各套仪器的正常变化形态及干扰形态,对山东菏泽５．９级、大同６．１级、南黄海５．３级等地震前的异常特征进行了分析、总结。 结果认为,当各台倾斜仪出现打破以往年变正常规律的形态及γ因子超出二倍中误差时,即可视为异常出现。当趋势异常或γ因子出现转折、大幅度波动时,即可视为进入短期阶段,应注意未来１个月左右地震发生的可能,矢量方向大致指向或背向震中。在进入短期     

Aquaculture and transport in a changing environment: overlap and links in the spread of alien biota

Aquaculture has been practiced for some millennia. The speed and access of different transport modes in the spread of cultured species, their pests, parasites, diseases and associates, has changed over this time. There now exists an overlap and interlinking of different transport networks with further routes planned. Coupled with environmental changes and habitat alterations alien biota are presented with further opportunities to become more widely distributed. The certainty of the responsible pathway for the arrival of an alien species is not always easily deduced unless imported directly. A scheme for classifying different levels of certainty is proposed. Aquaculture itself consists of different cultivation intensities ranging from part to all of a species life-history and are classified accordingly in this account. It is inevitable that further species intended for cultivation will be utilized in different world regions and that other biota, some considered to be harmful, will also be transmitted. Nevertheless there are codes of practice such as those used by the IMO and ICES that can reduce some risks.     

A Nonlinear Programming Technique for the Interpretation of Self-potential Anomalies

v--vUsing Frank and Wolfe's algorithm, a new interesting nonlinear programming technique has been developed in an attempt to estimate the geometric shape factor of a buried polarized body from a residual self-potential anomaly. Furthermore, the depth, the polarization angle and the electrical dipole moment have also been derived. This algorithm is noted to be robust and its application to SP data converges rapidly towards the optimal solution. The developed technique is tested through studying synthetic data with and without random noise. As a result, the near agreement between the model geometric shape factor and the evaluated one is well recognized. The validity of this proposed technique is tested on a field example from the Ergani Copper district, Turkey. The superiority of the nonlinear programming technique over other recently published methods is shown.     

The research of a comprehensive program for earthquake prediction with seismological methods

In this paper, the MYCIN inexact inference method in Expert System is applied to comprehensive earthquake prediction. And it is proposed that the methods of determining various certainty factors, correcting correlation between anomalous evidences and computing comprehensive certainty factor of occurrence of some moderate or strong earthquake. By use of these methods, 18 earthquake cases since 1966 in North China is tested with seismological anomalies in different seismogenic stage, and the comprehensive certainty factors of occurrence of some moderate or strong earthquake are computed. At last some problems in application are discussed. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 328–337, 1991.