The importance of ship log data: reconstructing North Atlantic, European and Mediterranean sea level pressure fields back to 1750

Local to regional climate anomalies are to a large extent determined by the state of the atmospheric circulation. The knowledge of large-scale sea level pressure (SLP) variations in former times is therefore crucial when addressing past climate changes across Europe and the Mediterranean. However, currently available SLP reconstructions lack data from the ocean, particularly in the pre-1850 period. Here we present a new statistically-derived 5° × 5° resolved gridded seasonal SLP dataset covering the eastern North Atlantic, Europe and the Mediterranean area (40°W–50°E; 20°N–70°N) back to 1750 using terrestrial instrumental pressure series and marine wind information from ship logbooks. For the period 1750–1850, the new SLP reconstruction provides a more accurate representation of the strength of the winter westerlies as well as the location and variability of the Azores High than currently available multiproxy pressure field reconstructions. These findings strongly support the potential of ship logbooks as an important source to determine past circulation variations especially for the pre-1850 period. This new dataset can be further used for dynamical studies relating large-scale atmospheric circulation to temperature and precipitation variability over the Mediterranean and Eurasia, for the comparison with outputs from GCMs as well as for detection and attribution studies.     

Extending North Atlantic Oscillation reconstructions back to 1500

Monthly (1659–1995) and seasonal (1500–1658) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices were estimated using instrumental and documentary proxy predictors from Eurasia. Uncertainty estimates were calculated for the reconstructions, and the variability of the 500-year winter NAO has been assessed. The late twentieth century NAO extremes are within the range of variability during earlier centuries.     

Reconstruction of seasonal and semiannual precipitation totals over europe from atmospheric pressure over the North Atlantic

A statistical method of reconstruction of winter and semiannual precipitation totals at the network of weather stations in Europe is considered. The sea-level pressure field in the North Atlantic is used as a predictor for precipitation reconstruction. The stability of pressure field filtration is studied from empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) with the help of informative parameter of the pressure vector components. Results of numerical experiments are presented.     

The drivers of projected North Atlantic sea level change

Sea level change predicted by the CMIP5 atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) is not spatially homogeneous. In particular, the sea level change in the North Atlantic is usually characterised by a meridional dipole pattern with higher sea level rise north of 40°N and lower to the south. The spread among models is also high in that region. Here we evaluate the role of surface buoyancy fluxes by carrying out simulations with the FAMOUS low-resolution AOGCM forced by surface freshwater and heat flux changes from CO₂-forced climate change experiments with CMIP5 AOGCMs, and by a standard idealised surface freshwater flux applied in the North Atlantic. Both kinds of buoyancy flux change lead to the formation of the sea level dipole pattern, although the effect of the heat flux has a greater magnitude, and is the main cause of the spread of results among the CMIP5 models. By using passive tracers in FAMOUS to distinguish between additional and redistributed buoyancy, we show that the enhanced sea level rise north of 40°N is mainly due to the direct steric effect (the reduction of sea water density) caused by adding heat or freshwater locally. The surface buoyancy forcing also causes a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, and the consequent reduction of the northward ocean heat transport imposes a negative tendency on sea level rise, producing the reduced rise south of 40°N. However, unlike previous authors, we find that this indirect effect of buoyancy forcing is generally less important than the direct one, except in a narrow band along the east coast of the US, where it plays a major role and leads to sea level rise, as found by previous authors.     

The Relationship between the Wintertime Blocking over Greenland and the Sea Ice Distribution over North Atlantic

The sea-ice concentration in the Northern Hemisphere, 500 hPa height, sea-level pressure and 1000-500 hPa thickness of monthly mean data are examined for the period 1953-1989, with emphasis on the winter season.Relationships between large-scale patterns of atmospheric variability and sea-ice variability are investigated, making use of the correlation method. The analysis is conducted for the Atlantic sectors. In agreement with earlier studies based upon monthly mean data on sea-ice concentration, the strongest sea-ice pattern is composed of a dipole with opposing centers of action in the Davis Straits / Labrador Sea region and the Greenland and Barents Seas. Its temporal variability is strongly coupled to the atmospheric North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The relationship between the two patterns is strongest with the atmosphere leading the ocean. The polarity of the NAO is associated with Greenland blocking episodes, during which the influence of the atmosphere is strong enough to temporarily halt the c     

Anthropogenic changes of the thermal and zonal flow structure over Western Europe and Eastern North Atlantic in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models

The anthropogenic changes during boreal winter in the thermal and zonal flow structure over Eastern Atlantic and Western Europe (EAWE) have been investigated using an ensemble of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. The ensemble mean change in the zonal wind at 500 hPa over this region is characterized by an eastward extension of the belt of zonal winds. Using the thermal wind relation these wind changes are found to be consistent with the changes in the tropospheric temperature profile. An enhanced warming is simulated in the subtropical upper troposphere and a relative surface cooling in the mid-latitudes. The subtropical upper tropospheric warming is related to the downward branch of the mean meridional circulation, whereas the mid-latitude lower tropospheric relative cooling is linked to the ocean processes that govern changes in its surface temperatures. Inter-model differences in the simulated change of the zonal wind over the EAWE by the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models relate well with differences in the upper tropospheric subtropical warming and the mid-latitude lower tropospheric relative cooling. The simulated change of the zonal wind over the EAWE region by the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models correlates well with changes in the meridional SST gradient. We conclude that uncertainties in the projected changes of the zonal flow over Europe are at least partly due to uncertainties in the response of the North Atlantic Ocean to increased levels of greenhouse gases.     

北太平洋海平面气压的EOF分析与北方涛动

本文利用自然正交函数(E0F)分析方法,对1951—1980年北太平洋月平均海平面气压距平场进行分解,讨论了自然正交函数前两个最重要的特征向量的空间分布及其年际变化的特征。指出第一特征向量的模型在西太平洋低纬地区有最大的凝聚,其时间系数序列与马尼拉站气压距平的年际变化很相似,而第二特征向量的模型在东太平洋副热带地区有最大的凝聚,其时间系数序列与 Ship N站气压距平的年际变化也很一致,并且由这两个特征向量的时间系数定义的北方涛动指数同由Ship N和马尼拉两个单站的气压距平定义的北方涛动指数之间有很好的对应关系。由于第一和第二特征向量的大尺度特征,及其表示了北太平洋气压年际变化总方差的30.5％,可以认为,马尼拉和Ship N站的气压距平在空间上是有代表性的,并且北方涛动在北太平洋大气环流年际变化中占有头等重要地位。     

Time variation of the mean sea level pressure over the major Mediterranean area

Summary Based on grid-point data the mean annual variation of sea level pressure (SLP) over the major Mediterranean area is examined by means of a simple mathematical model (harmonic analysis).In order to study the time series of SLP values the period under study (1873–1980) is divided into three subperiods; positive and negative values of the departures from normal (P) during the 108-year period are noted. Linear trend and power spectral analysis methods are applied in order to find statistically significant trends and periodicities.With 8 Figures     

Contribution of the sea surface temperature over the Mediterranean-Black Sea to the decadal shift of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation

Recent observational study has shown that the southern center of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) was located farther eastward after the late 1970s compared to before. In this study, the cause for this phenomenon is explored. The result shows that the eastward shift of the SNAO southern center after the late 1970s is related to the variability of the Mediterranean-Black Sea (MBS) SST. A warm MBS SST can heat and moisten its overlying atmosphere, consequently producing a negative sea level pressure (SLP) departure over the MBS region. Because the MBS SST is negatively correlated with the SNAO, the negative SLP departure can enhance the eastern part of the negative-phase of the SNAO southern center, consequently producing an eastward SNAO southern center shift. Similarly, a cold MBS SST produces an eastward positive-phase SNAO southern center shift. The reason for why the MBS SST has an impact on the SNAO after the late 1970s but why it is not the case beforehand is also discussed. It is found that this instable relationship is likely to be attributed to the change of the variability of the MBS SST on the decadal time-scale. In 1951--1975, the variability of the MBS SST is quite weak, but in 1978--2002, it becomes more active. The active SST can enhance the interaction between the sea and its overlying atmosphere, thus strengthening the connection between the MBS SST and the SNAO after the late 1970s. The above observational analysis results are further confirmed by sensitivity experiments.     

北大西洋臭氧极小值和北太平洋极大值及其相互关系

利用1979～2002年TOMS卫星观测资料,采用臭氧总量纬向偏差和区域强迫的分析方法,研究北大西洋东北部大气臭氧低值与北太平洋西北部臭氧高值的季节变化过程和相互关系.研究表明,(1)北大西洋东北部存在一个大气臭氧极小值,年平均臭氧总量比纬向平均值低20 DU以上,冬季低50 DU以上; 北太平洋西北部存在一个大气臭氧极大值,年平均臭氧总量比纬向平均值高35 DU以上,冬季高70 DU以上.(2)上述两个地区大气臭氧的季节变化具有很强的区域特征,区域大气动力学输送和化学过程对上述两个地区大气臭氧季节变化的强迫分别为50.3%和42.6%.(3)上述两个地区大气臭氧纬向偏差的季节变化间存在很好的反相关,相关系数达到-0.98,说明其臭氧区域强迫之间存在良好的关系.     

东北春季极端连续无雨日与前冬北太平洋海平面气压的可能联系北大核心

基于1960—2019年中国东北地区108个台站逐日降水资料、JRA-55再分析资料和Hadley中心海温数据,分析了东北地区春季极端连续无雨日的年际变化特征及其与前冬北太平洋地区大气环流和海表温度的关系。研究表明,东北地区春季极端连续无雨日集中在3—4月。当3—4月极端连续无雨日偏多时,贝加尔湖地区存在异常高压,东北地区受偏北气流影响,局地水汽辐散。进一步分析发现,东北地区3—4月极端连续无雨日与前冬1—2月北太平洋地区偶极型海平面气压存在密切联系。该大气模态可以引起同期北太平洋海温呈现出马蹄形异常分布并持续到3—4月。在3—4月,海温异常可以通过改变北太平洋上空的经向温度梯度,引起东亚到北太平洋地区的西风变化,进而有利于贝加尔湖地区出现异常高压。另一方面,海温异常还会增强北半球中纬度的波列活动,东传的波列也可以增强贝加尔湖地区的高压。上述异常环流为东北地区极端连续无雨日的增加提供了有利背景条件。留一交叉验证结果显示,前冬1—2月北太平洋地区偶极型海平面气压可作为东北春季极端连续无雨日的潜在预测因子。     

Anomalies of hydrometeorological fields in the Black Sea area associated with sea surface temperature gradients in the North Atlantic

To describe the spatial structure of hydrometeorological fields in the North Atlantic and in the Black Sea, the temperature indices (sea surface temperature gradients) representing the difference in sea surface temperature anomalies averaged throughout the water area and normalized by standard deviations are introduced. Temperature gradients between the Sargasso Sea and the tropics (STI), the Sargasso Sea and the subpolar cyclonic gyre (SNI), the Sargasso Sea and the Black Sea (SBI) are considered. The spatial structure of the sea surface temperature field anomalies in the North Atlantic and in the Black Sea at extreme values of STI and SBI is discussed. A sign-variable structure of air temperature and precipitation anomalies in the Black Sea area at extreme values of SBI is shown. Time scales of sign-variable variability of anomalies of hydrometeorological fields in the Black Sea area are estimated.     

近60年华北春季干旱特征及其与北大西洋海表温度的关系

利用观测资料统计分析和CAM5.3数值模拟相结合的方法,基于标准化降水蒸散指数(Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index,SPEI),分析了1955-2018年华北地区春季干旱特征,并重点探讨了对北大西洋产生的影响.华北春季干旱的主要空间分布型为全区一致型,...     

Interannual and Interdecadal Variability of Winter Precipitation over China in Relation to Global Sea Level Pressure Anomalies

Based on the method of rotated principal component (RPC) analysis and wavelet transforms, the win-ter precipitation from 36 stations over China for the period 1881-1993 is examined. The results show thatthe three leading space-time modes correspond, in sequence, to winter rainfall anomalies over the reaches ofthe Yangtze River, the bend of the Yellow River, and the northeastern region of China. The three modes ex-hibit interannual oscillations with quasi-biennial and 8-year periods as well as interdecadal oscillationswith 16- and 32-year periods. The interannual oscillation (＜ 10 years) occurs in phase over the differentareas, and its maximum amplitude migrates northward considerably with prominent interdecadal variations.However, the interdecadal oscillations (10-32 years) are out of phase over the different regions, and theamplitude variations have the characteristics of stationary waves.The rainfall anomalies appear to be closely re lated to the anti-phase changes of mean sea-level pres-sure (SLP) over the Asian mainland and the North Pacific. When the SLP rises over the North Pacific anddecreases over the Asian mainland, the precipitation over East China increases noticeably. The linkage be-tween the rainfall over China and the SLP anomalies apparently results from the strength of the East Asianwinter monsoon and its associated temperature and moisture advection.     

Solar wind: A possible factor driving the interannual sea surface temperature tripolar mode over North Atlantic

The effect of solar wind (SW) on the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) in boreal winter is examined through an analysis of observational data during 1964-2013. The North Atlantic SSTs show a pronounced meridional tripolar pattern in response to solar wind speed (SWS) variations. This pattern is broadly similar to the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of interannual variations in the wintertime SSTs over North Atlantic. The time series of this leading EOF mode of SST shows a significant interannual period, which is the same as that of wintertime SWS. This response also appears as a compact north-south seesaw of sea level pressure and a vertical tripolar structure of zonal wind, which simultaneously resembles the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the overlying atmosphere. As compared with the typical low SWS winters, during the typical high SWS winters, the stratospheric polar night jet (PNJ) is evidently enhanced and extends from the stratosphere to the troposphere, even down to the North Atlantic Ocean surface. Notably, the North Atlantic Ocean is an exclusive region in which the SW signal spreads downward from the stratosphere to the troposphere. Thus, it seems that the SW is a possible factor for this North Atlantic SST tripolar mode. The dynamical process of stratosphere-troposphere coupling, together with the global atmospheric electric circuit-cloud microphysical process, probably accounts for the particular downward propagation of the SW signal.     

Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Middle Eastern Climate and Streamflow

Interannual to decadal variations in Middle Eastern temperature, precipitationand streamflow reflect the far-field influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a dominant mode of Atlantic sector climate variability. Using a new sea surface temperature (SST) based index of the NAO and availablestreamflow data from five Middle Eastern rivers, we show that the first principal component of December through March streamflow variability reflects changes in the NAO. However, Middle East rivers have two primary flooding periods.The first is rainfall-driven runoff from December through March, regulated on interannual to decadal timescales by the NAO as reflected in local precipitation and temperature.The second period, from April through June, reflects spring snowmelt and contributes in excess of 50% of annual runoff.This period, known locally as the khamsin, displays no significantNAO connections and a less direct relationship with local climatic factors, suggesting that streamflow variability during this period reflects land-cover change, possibly related to agriculture and hydropower generation, and snowmelt.     

Air–sea coupling in the North Atlantic during summer

In this work, we have investigated the evolution of the summer air–sea interaction in the North Atlantic Ocean and the physical processes involved using reanalysis data and model simulation. It is found that an atmosphere disturbance over the North Atlantic Ocean in the preceding winter favors the build-up of a North Atlantic horseshoe-like sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) pattern in the summer through modifying the northeast trade winds and changing ocean upwelling and downwelling. The changed ocean condition (SSTA, upwelling, and downwelling) further intensifies the atmosphere disturbance as a positive feedback. The thermal advection of the atmosphere disturbance weakens the SSTA pattern in the following autumn and winter. The anomalous circulation associated with the air–sea interaction in the observations is characterized by a barotropic structure in the middle and high latitudes of the North Atlantic Ocean. The baroclinic component is enhanced in the model simulation, particularly in the seasons from summer to winter. The life cycle of the air–sea interaction is about 1 year in both the observations and simulations.     

Interdecadal changes in the storm track activity over the North Pacific and North Atlantic

Analysis of NCEP-NCAR I reanalysis data of 1948–2009 and ECMWF ERA-40 reanalysis data of 1958–2001 reveals several significant interdecadal changes in the storm track activity and mean flow-transient eddy interaction in the extratropics of Northern Hemisphere. First, the most remarkable transition in the North Pacific storm track (PST) and the North Atlantic storm track (AST) activities during the boreal cold season (from November to March) occurred around early-to-mid 1970s with the characteristics of global intensification that has been noticed in previous studies. Second, the PST activity in midwinter underwent decadal change from a weak regime in the early 1980s to a strong regime in the late 1980s. Third, during recent decade, the PST intensity has been enhanced in early spring whereas the AST intensity has been weakened in midwinter. Finally, interdecadal change has been also noted in the relationship between the PST and AST activities and between the storm track activity and climate indices. The variability of storm track activity is well correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation prior to the early 1980s, but this relationship has disappeared afterward and a significant linkage between the PST and AST activity has also been decoupled. For a better understanding of the mid-1970s’ shift in storm track activity and mean flow-transient eddy interaction, further investigation is made by analyzing local barotropic and baroclinic energetics. The intensification of global storm track activity after the mid-1970s is mainly associated with the enhancement of mean meridional temperature gradient resulting in favorable condition for baroclinic eddy growth. Consistent with the change in storm track activity, the baroclinic energy conversion is significantly increased in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The intensification of the PST and AST activity, in turn, helps to reinforce the changes in the middle-to-upper tropospheric circulation but acts to interfere with the changes in the low-tropospheric temperature field.     

On the frequency of cyclones over the North Atlantic related to the sunspot cycle

Summary C. J. Kullmer andH. H. Clayton found shifts in the latitudetracks of low pressure areas in North America with change in sunspot activity. These remarkable results called for an extension of their investigations to other parts of the globe and this was made possible by the U. S. Weather Bureau Northern Hemisphere Historical Map Series published lately and was all the more justified since no statistical tests of significance had been applied so far.Owing to the material used, onlyfrequencies of cyclonic centres for three solar cycles between 1899 and 1932 were subjected to a search for a relationship to the solar activity and the area investigated has for the time being been restricted to the North Atlantic. Our results are based on 12 418 weather maps for 1300 G. M. T.In spite of the fact that track-frequencies and frequencies of cyclonic centres of different periods have been combined (Fig. 1) agreement in the characteristic features of the average annual frequency in the overlapping part of the areas investigated by previous authors and ourselves exists. The maximum frequency of the cyclonic tracks occurs over the United States in a belt around 50° N. which continues in approximately the same latitude up to 55° W. and then over the Atlantic turns northwards, reaching 62° N. between 10° and 0° W. Isopleths of the total frequency (Fig. 2) of the cyclonic centres describe this belt in greater detail and show the three well known frequency maxima in the regions of Newfoundland, Greenland and Iceland.During the period 1899 to 1929, generally three belts of maximum frequency (in high, middle and low latitudes) appear in a single year. Figs. 3 and 4 show two characteristic specimen maps. The movement of these belts (Figs. 5 and 6) along the mid-Atlantic meridian seems to indicate a correlation to the solar activity although its interpretation is ambiguous.The plotting of the differences of the cyclonic frequencies (for three year periods) at the maximum and minimum solar activity and forKullmer's selected and test years respectively doesnot reveal any conspicuous pattern. The considerable differences in the cyclonic frequencies at the maximum and minimum solar activity in the Greenland area (Fig. 7) might indicate a solar influence. The application of thet test to the frequencies of low pressure centres over the North Atlantic indicates a solar influence at least in the latitudes 50° to 60° N., which is supported by the results of our application of thet test toKullmer's track frequencies over the United States.

---

Zusammenfassung C. J. Kullmer undH. H. Clayton haben Breitenverschiebungen der Bahnen der Tiefdruckgebiete in Nordamerika mit der Sonnenfleckentätigkeit gefunden. Diese bemerkenswerten Resultate legten eine Ausdehnung ihrer Untersuchungen auf andere Teile der Erde nahe, welche jetzt durch die kürzlich vom Wetterbureau der Vereinigten Staaten veröffentlichte Reihe historischer Wetterkarten der nördlichen Halbkugel ermöglicht wurde. Eine solche Untersuchung war um so mehr gerechtfertigt, als die früher genannten Autoren keine Wahrscheinlichkeitskriterien angewendet, sordern ihre Feststellungen auf rein graphischem Wege abgeleitet hatten.Da das von uns benützte Material nur eine Wetterkarte per Tag gibt, haben wir bloß dieHäufigkeit der Tiefdruckzentren während dreier Sonnenfleckenzyklen im Zeitraum von 1899 bis 1932 auf ihre Beziehung zur Sonnentätigkeit hin untersucht und das Untersuchungsgebiet vorläufig auf den nördlichen Atlantischen Ozean beschränkt. Unsere Resultate gründen sich auf 12418 Wetterkarten, welche für 1300 M. G. Z. entworfen sind.Trotzdem in Abb. 1 Häufigkeiten von Zyklonenbahnen und Tiefdruckzentren von sogar verschiedenen Epochen zusammengestellt sind, besteht gute Übereinstimmung in den charakteristischen Zügen der durchschnittlichen jährlichen Häufigkeit in den übergreifenden Teilen der von den obengenannten Forschern und uns untersuchten Gebiete. Die größte Häufigkeit der Tiefdruckbahnen tritt über den Vereinigten Staaten von Nordamerika in einem Gürtel in ungefähr 50° n. Br. auf, der sich bis 65° westlicher Länge erstreckt und dann über dem Atlantik nordwärts wendet; er erreicht 62° n. Br. zwischen 10° und 0° westlicher Länge. Isoplethen der Gesamthäufigkeit (Abb. 2) der Tiefdruckzentren geben Einzelheiten über die Ausdehnung und Gestalt dieses Gürtels und zeigen die drei wohlbekannten Häufigkeitszentren in der Gegend von Neufundland, Grönland und Island.Im allgemeinen treten in einzelnen Jahren des Zeitraums 1899 bis 1929 drei Gürtel größter Häufigkeit auf, und zwar in hohen, mittleren und niedrigen Breiten; in manchen Jahren ist allerdings der Gürtel südlich von 20° n. Br. schlecht ausgeprägt. Abb. 3 und 4 bringen zwei charakteristische Beispiele. Die Verschiebung dieser Gürtel in der Mitte des Atlantischen Ozeans, entlang dem Meridian von 35° westlicher Länge, deutet eine Korrelation mit der Sonnenaktivität an, wenn auch die Interpretation dieser Beziehung noch unsicher ist. Es ist möglich, die Nord-Süd-Verschiebung dieser Gürtel so der Sonnentätigkeit zuzuordnen, daß die Minima der Sonnenflecken-Relativzahlen der größten Südwärtsverschiebung der Häufigkeitsgürtel entsprechen und die Maxima der Sonnentätigkeit ihrer größten Verlagerung nach Norden (Abb. 5). Man kann aber auch, wenn auch nicht so zwanglos, die in Abb. 6 wiedergegebene, umgekehrte Zuordnung versuchen.Die Mappierung der Differenzen der Häufigkeit der Lage der Tiefdruckzentren zur Zeit der Maxima und Minima der Sonnentätigkeit und für die vonKullmer definierten ausgewählten und Probe-Jahre ergibt komplizierte Anordnungen der Häufigkeitskurven über dem nordatlantischen Ozean und zeigt, im Gegensatz zu jenen über dem nordamerikanischen Kontinent,keine auffallende Anordnung. Die beträchtlichen Unterschiede in den Häufigkeiten der Tiefdruckzentren im Gebiete von Grönland zwischen den Maxima und den Minima der Sonnentätigkeit (Abb. 7) könnten immerhin einen solaren Einfluß andeuten. Die Anwendung des sogenannten t-Test auf die Häufigkeitsverteilung der Zyklonen über dem Nordatlantik läßt einen solaren Einfluß wenigstens in den Breiten von 50° bis 60° N. erkennen, ein Befund, der durch die Anwendung desselben Tests auf die vonKullmer für Nordamerika mitgeteilten Häufigkeiten der Zyklonenbahnen gestützt wird.

---

Résumé C. J. Kullmer etH. H. Clayton avaient constaté un déplacement en latitude des trajectoires de dépressions en Amérique du Nord en relation avec l'activité des taches solaires. Ces résultats remarquables suggéraient une extension des recherches dans d'autres régions du globe, recherches facilitées par la publication récente par le Weather Bureau américain de séries de cartes du temps rétrospectives de l'hémisphère nord. Une telle étude était d'autant plus justifiée que les auteurs cités n'avaient pas appliqué de critères probabilistes et n'avaient conclu que sur la base de méthodes graphiques.Comme le matériel utilisé ici ne comporte qu'une carte par jour, nous nous sommes borné à étudier la fréquence des centres de basse pression en relation avec l'activité solaire durant trois cycles de taches solaires, soit dans la période de 1899 à 1932; nous n'avons en outre considéré que la région de l'Atlantique nord en utilisant 12418 cartes synoptiques dessinées pour 13 hs. T. M. G.Bien que la fig. 1 représente des fréquences de trajectoires et de centres de basse pression de périodes différentes, elle montre cependant un bon accord des traits caractéristiques des fréquences moyennes annuelles dans les régions communes étudiées par les auteurs cités et par nous. La plus grande fréquence de trajectoires dépressionnaires s'observe aux États-Unis, dans une zone de latitude voisine de 50° N s'étendant du méridien de 55° W à l'Atlantique septentrional; ici, elle se tourne vers le N et atteint 62° de latitude N entre les longitudes occidentales de 10° à 0°. Les isoplèthes de la fréquence totale (fig. 2) des centres de basse pression décrivent l'étendue et la forme de cette zone, et mettent en relief les trois centres de fréquence bien connus de Terre-Neuve, du Groenland et de l'Islande.D'une façon générale, trois zones de fréquence maximum apparaissent dans la période 1899–1929, et cela aux latitudes hautes, moyennes et basses; certaines années, la zone au sud du 20me parallèle N est à vrai dire mal définie. Les figures 3 et 4 fournissent deux exemples caractéristiques. Le déplacement de cette zone au milieu de l'Atlantique, le long du méridien de 35° W, fait pressentir une corrélation avec l'activité solaire, bien qu'une incertitude plane encore sur cette interprétation.La corrélation pourrait s'établir dans ce sens qu'au minimum de taches solaires correspond le plus grand déplacement vers le Sud de la zone de fréquences, et au maximum de taches le plus grand déplacement vers le Nord (fig. 5). Mais il est aussi possible de renverser les rôles, comme l'indique la fig. 6, bien que cela paraisse moins naturel.Si l'on reporte sur la carte les différences de fréquences des positions des centres de basse pression aux époques respectives des maxima et des minima de l'activité solaire pour les années classées parKullmer (comme sélectives ou de contrôle) on obtient des courbes compliquées sur l'Atlantique nord et on ne retrouve plus les dispositions régulières apparaissant sur le continent américain. Toutefois les différences importantes de fréquences des centres dépressionnaires dans la région du Groenland entre les maxima et les minima de l'activité solaire (fig. 7) pourraient faire supposer une influence solaire. L'application du «testt» à la distribution des fréquences des cyclones sur l'Atlantique nord fait apparaître une influence solaire, au moins aux latitudes comprises entre 50° et 60° N; ce fait est confirmé par l'application de la même méthode aux fréquences de trajectoires dépressionnaires en Amérique du Nord parKullmer.

---

---

With 7 Figures.     

On the interannual variability of arctic sea‐level pressure and sea ice

Abstract

Monthly mean sea‐level pressure (SLP) data from the Northern Hemisphere for the period January 1952‐December 1987 are analysed. Fluctuations in this field over the Arctic on interannual time‐scales and their statistical association with fluctuations farther south are determined. The standard deviation of the interannual variability is largest compared with that of the annual cycle along the seaboards of the major land masses. The SLP anomalies are generally in phase over the entire Arctic Basin and extend south over the northern Russia and Canada, but tend to be out of phase with fluctuations at mid‐latitudes. The anomalies are most closely associated with fluctuations over the North Atlantic and Europe except near the Chukchi Sea to the north of Bering Strait. The associations with the North Pacific fluctuations become increasingly more prominent at most Arctic sites (e.g. the Canadian Arctic Archipelago) as the time‐scale increases.

Associations between the SLP fluctuations and atmospheric indices that represent processes affecting sea‐ice drift (wind stress and wind stress curl) are determined. In every case local associations dominate, but some remote ones are also evident. For example, changes in the magnitude of the wind stress curl over the Beaufort Sea are increased if the atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific is intensified; wind stress over the region where sea ice is exchanged between the Beaufort Gyre and the Transpolar Drift Stream is modulated by both the Southern and North Atlantic Oscillations.

Severe sea‐ice conditions in the Greenland Sea (as measured by the Koch Ice Index) coincide with a weakened atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic.