影响我国热带气旋活动的气候特征及其与太平洋海温的关系

利用1956~2000年的热带气旋(简称TC,下同)资料对影响我国TC活动的气候特征进行了初步的统计分析,结果发现影响我国的TC活动具有明显的阶段性特征,1960年代影响我国的TC数明显偏少,而后进入偏多期,1990年代又相对偏少。影响我国的TC强度多集中于980~999 hPa,华东的闽、浙一带TC登陆比华南晚,但强度较大。在此基础上通过对影响我国的TC年个数与太平洋海温场进行相关分析,发现两个相关较密切的区域: 西太平洋暖池(120~150 E, 10~20 N)正相关区、赤道中东太平洋(180 ~90 W, 10 S~5 N)负相关区,这两个相关区具有较好的持续性。进一步分析影响我国的TC在El Ni駉年与La Ni馻年的气候特征发现,El Ni駉年影响我国的TC数较少,但强度较大,La Ni馻年则相反,影响我国TC多年和少年对应的太平洋海温距平分布形势分别与La Nia年和El Nio年的海温距平分布形势类似。     

2003年广东省夏季的异常高温天气及气候背景

对2003年夏季广东省出现的异常高温天气时空分布特点及其异常的原因进行了分析，用小波分析研究了高温期的低频振荡，并用EOF和相关分析研究高温天气的气候特征及其气候背景。结果表明，2003年广东夏季的高温天气主要出现在7月初-8月中旬初。除雷州半岛以外的广东其余地区均出现异常高温，且高温日数大多比历年同期偏多1．2倍。高温天气具有明显的阶段性变化，存在60—80天左右的季节内振荡。影响高温天气的主要系统为副热带高压，当菲律宾附近同时有热带气旋活动时，有利于广东出现异常的高温天气。2003年7月乌拉尔山以西和鄂霍次克海附近地区异常偏强的阻塞高压及前冬太平洋海温距平呈厄尔尼诺的分布型，有利于西北太平洋副高异常偏强，位置偏南，持久控制江南到华南。广东高温天气始于5月，结束于10月，主要发生在7-8月份，具有相当的同步性。从1960年代起，高温天气主要发生在1960年代初、1980年代末到1990年代初、1990年代末至今。     

THE VARIATION FEATURES OF AGROCLIMATIC RESOURCES AND CROP YIELD OF CHINA IN RECENT 40 YEARS

ＴＨＥＶＡＲＩＡＴＩＯＮＦＥＡＴＵＲＥＳＯＦＡＧＲＯＣＬＩＭＡＴＩＣＲＥＳＯＵＲＣＥＳＡＮＤＣＲＯＰＹＩＥＬＤＯＦＣＨＩＮＡＩＮＲＥＣＥＮＴ４０ＹＥＡＲＳＧａｏＳｕｈｕａ（高素华）ａｎｄＺｈａｎｇＹｕ（张宇）ＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈＣｅｎｔｅｒｆｏｒＡｇｒｉ...     

我国气温变化的神经网络预测模型

利用神经网络系统工具,把CO2浓度、太阳辐射、全球冰量和气溶胶作为输入,把气温作为输出,结果发现模拟值和目标值吻合较好,比多元回归拟合值的精度高.在此基础上,进行了两个控制性试验,即CO2浓度每年分别增加1%和0.5%,试验结果表明:随着CO2浓度的增加,21世纪前30年每10年中国气温的增加速度分别为0.4 ℃和0.2 ℃;到21世纪末,中国气温将分别增加3.8 ℃和2.4 ℃,神经网络模拟结果和气候系统模式模拟结果具有较好的一致性,从而进一步说明,神经网络预测模型在分析气候变化方面具有可信性和可行性.     

海南岛最高和最低气温的非对称变化

利用海南岛具有46年资料的13个站点1959-2004年1月、4月、7月、10月及年平均温度、平均最高最低温度、极端最高最低温度,研究海南气温变化的气候特征,结果表明,海南岛最高最低气温变化在空间分布,线性增温趋势的稳定性、倾向率和突变现象均有明显的非对称性特征：最高气温变化的空间分布表现为北高南低,而最低气温变化的空间分布表现为南高北低;各季节的平均最低气温的线性趋势均稳定,极端最低气温在冬季和夏季线性增温趋势稳定,而各季的平均、极端最高气温增温趋势均不稳定;最低气温的倾向率在各个季节或年平均上比最高气温的倾向率大得多,冷季的线性倾向率明显大于暖季;平均最高气温在四季均不存在明显突变,而平均最低气温则均有突变。     

THE THEORY OF MOIST POTENTIAL VORTICITY AND ITS APPLICATION IN THE DIAGNOSIS OF TYPHOON RAINFALL AND INTENSITY

This paper tests the impacts of cloud-induced mass forcing on the moist potential vorticity(MPV) anomaly associated with torrential rains caused by Typhoon No.9914 (Dan) by using fine modelsimulation data outputted by the Fifth-Generation NCAR / Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5). Thediagnostic results show that the positive MPV anomaly region, which is obtained by integrating the MPVfrom 600 hPa to 300 hPa in the vertical, roughly coincides with the precipitation at their synchronousstages either in position or in the distribution pattern, and the maximum positive MPV area of Dan islocated mainly between 600 hPa and 300 hPa, which is much higher than torrential rain cases. Furtheranalyses also showed that the value of positive MPV anomaly increased or decreased with the developmentof Dan, and the positive MPV anomaly may also be served as a tracer to indicate the evolution of tropicalcyclone intensity.     

ANALYSIS OF SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE RECORDED IN LAHORE AND MIANWALI OVER THE PAST THREE DECADES

Surface air temperatures recorded over the past three decades at the weather stations located in Lahore (anindustrialized and densely populated city) and Mianwali (a small and sparsely populated city) were analyzed in order tostudy their climatic trend.Lahore,where meteorological data are recorded at two weather stations (city station and air-port station) indicates a cooling trend,of about 0.5℃ per record period of 1953—1992,for the airport station (31°31′N,74°24′E) and a slight warming trend,of about 0.2℃,for the city station (31°33′N,74°20′E) for the record period of 1950—1992.The Mianwali weather station (32°33′N,71°31′E) also shows a slight cooling trend,of about 0.4℃ per recordperiod of 1959—1992.The climatic variability at these stations was studied by computing seasonal and annual tempera-ture anomalies.The results are explained in terms of the local environmental conditions.     

本世纪青藏高原气候的三次突变及与天文因素的相关

用给出了的划分气候阶段的标准对本世纪高原的气温,降水和季风的阶段性变化进行了分析,发现本世纪高原气候在２０年代初,５０－６０年代和８０年代初发生了三次突变,与北半球的气候变化一致。高原气温突长数年后我国和北半球温度突升,接着高原季节增强,高原“季风多雨区”变温,“季风少雨区”变干,反之则相反,进一步分析表明,地球自转速度和太阳黑子周期长度的变化对高原及北半球本世纪气候的突变和阶段性变化起着重要的作     

西峰市冬小麦耗水规律及其对产量的影响

利用甘肃省西峰市的气象、土壤湿度、作物发育期和产量资料,通过水量平衡方程计算冬小麦在各生育阶段的耗水量,揭示了该地区冬小麦的耗水规律、土壤湿度变化规律和水发亏缺状况。通过回归模拟建立产量－耗水量模型,确定影响产量的水分关键期。     

A PRELIMINARY SIMULATION OF EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RICE IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER REACHES OF CI-IANGJIANG RIVER AND WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION ON THE HUANG-HUAI-HAI PLAIN

In this paper,based on the analysis of the variation of effective accumulated temperature and precipita-tion in the last 100 years,together with the potential impacts of greenhouse effects on the climate in Chinasimulated with the current major climatic models(GFDL,GISS,NCAR,OSU and UKMO),the impacts ofclimate change on rice in the middle and lower reaches of Changjiang River and winter wheat production on theHuang-Huai-Hai Plain~* are simulated with the available weather-yield statistic models on the assumption that te-mperature variation ranges 1—4℃ and precipitation variation ranges ±10—20%.The result is that under thecurrent planting systems and agrotechniques,the impact of climate change on wheat production is more signifi-cant than that on rice;the climatic conditions of agricultural production in the north of China will become morefavourable while those in the south of the middle and lower reaches of Changjiang River remain the same;butthose in the southern part of North China and the basins between Changjiang River and Haihe River are ratherunstable.In general,it is difficult to reach the conclusion that advantages or disadvantages dominate in suchclimate changes because of uncertainties.     

CLIMATIC ABRUPT CHANGE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE FOR 1920s AND 1950s

In recent years,a large number of papers on the climatic sudden change have been presented.From the viewpoint ofclimatic sudden change,two methods of studying climatic sudden change are applied in this paper.The Northern Hemi-sphere land temperature(NHLT)during 1851—1984,China temperature(CT)during 1873—1990 and the NorthernHemisphere sea-level pressure(NHSLP)at each grid point during 1899—1987 are analyzed by the moving T-test.Theresults show that there exist two climatic sudden changes in the 1920s and the 1950s during the past 100 years,and thenfeatures of circulation for the two sudden changes are discussed by the NHSLP data.     

CLIMATIC FEATURES OF SEA TEMPERATURE OF WARM POOL AND RELATIONSHIP WITH SST OF ITS ADJACENT REGIONS

In this paper,climatic features of sea temperature of western Pacific warm pool and therelationship with sea surface temperature (SST) of its adjacent regions are analyzed based on theobserved sea temperature on vertical cross section along 137°E in western Pacific,the monthlymean SST of Xisha Station in South China Sea and the global monthly mean SST with resolution of1°×1°(U.K./GISST2.2).The results indicate that (1) in a sense of correlation.SST of westernPacific warm pool can represent its sea subsurface temperature from surface to 200 m-depth level inwinter,and it can only represent sea temperature from surface to 70 m depth in summer.The seasubsurface temperature anomaly of warm pool may be more suitable for representing thermalregime of western Pacific warm pool.The sea subsurface temperature of warm pool has acharacteristic of quasi-biennial oscillation.(2)Warm pool and Kuroshio current are subject todifferent ocean current systems (3)Furthermore,the relationship between SST of Xisha Stationand SST of warm pool has a characteristic of negative correlation in winter and positive correlationin summer,and a better lag negative correlation of SST of Xisha Station with sea subsurfacetemperature of warm pool exists.(4)Additionally,oscillation structure of sea temperature like “aseesaw” exists in between warm pool and Regions Nino3 and Nino4.January (June) maximum(minimum) sea subsurface temperature anomaly of warm pool may serve as a strong signal thatindicates maturity phase (development phase) of La Nina (El Nino) event,it also acts as a strongsignal which reveals variations of SST of Regions Nino3 and Nino4.     

半个世纪来惠州气温的变化特征

利用广东省惠州市城市和乡村的气温资料,分析了半个世纪来惠州气温的变化特征和城市热岛效应对气温变化的影响.结果表明:(1) 惠州城市年和四季平均气温都呈显著上升趋势,其中冬季增温最大,Mann-Kendall突变检验显示年和四季都存在增温性突变,t检验表明突变前后均值有显著性差异.(2) 惠州城市年平均最高和最低气温呈非对称变化,最低气温的增温幅度大于最高气温,气温的日变化呈减小趋势;高温日数呈上升趋势,低温日数呈下降趋势.(3) 城乡气温的对比分析表明惠州城市气温的变化不仅受到区域气候变化的影响,城市化、工业化和人类活动引起的城市热岛效应对其也有重要影响,城市热岛效应的增温贡献率为38.1%.     

控制镇江月平均气温变化的动力系统的重建及其预报应用

本文运用镇江月平均气温一维时间序列作相空间拓展，和假定相空间状态变量随时间的演化方程含有线性项和二次非线性项，利用最小二乘法求解各项系数，保留其大差贡献较大的项，重建动力系统．并用镇江月平均气温实测值作检验．结果表明，重建的动力方程对月平均气温的演变能作出较好的描写．     

CLIMATE CHANGE IN CHINA AND ITS INFLUENCE ON AGRICULTURE PRODUCTION IN THE LAST 40 YEARS

Using the meteorological data set for 1951—1990 over 160 stations,a series of 10-year running mean curves oftemperature and precipitation averaged for the country and its 7 climate regions,as well as for each season,are obtainedand analyzed.The six aspects of main results can be summarized about the climate change in China and its influence onagriculture production in the last 40 years.     

中国气温的年际振荡及其与海气振荡的关系

对中国47站1933、1—1987、12月平均气温资料进行功率谱分析表明,中国气温存在明显的准两年振荡(QBO)和准3.5年振荡(称为SO)。 用CEOF方法对中国160站气温QBO和SO分量研究表明:振荡具有传播和驻波的混合。传播路径一条由华北向南向西,另一条由华南向北向西。 文章还对中国气温和东太平洋赤道海温进行了滞后相关分析。      

TEMPERATURE SEQUENCE AND ITS CHANGE FOR RECENT 200 YEARS IN THE MIDDLE REACHES OF THE TARIM RIVER

Based on the populus euphratica chronologies in the middle reaches of the Tarim River,the temperaturesequence in growing season of populus euphratica for recent 200 years at Shaya weather station is reconstructed,which can be regarded as evidence of warm-cold changes in recent 100 years in the middle reaches of theTarim River.     

CLIMATIC JUMP FROM LATE 1970S TO EARLY 1980S AND ITS EFFECT

By use of the moving T test to do research on the interdecadal climate jump of the NorthernHemisphere sea level pressure.500 hPa height and North Pacific sea surface temperature,wefound that in recent 50 years an obvious interdecadal climate jump existed at the late 1970s to theearly 1980s.There is significant difference before and after the jump in terms of the NorthernHemisphere sea level pressure,500 hPa height and North Pacific sea surface temperature.Furthermore,the focus is then placed on the effect of the jump on temperature and rainfall inChina.