夏季中高纬500 hPa高度和海表温度异常特征及其相关分析

用旋转主分量（ＲＰＣ）方法,对１９４９～１９８８年４０个夏季的中高纬５００ｈＰａ高度场以及北太平洋和北大西洋海表温度异常（ＳＳＴＡ）的主要时空分布特征作分析,然后通过交叉相关讨论夏季海气相互作用的特征。结果表明,夏季中高纬５００ｈＰａ高度场最明显的异常型为副热带型（ＳＴ）,极地北美型（ＰＡ）,４波型（ＦＷ）,以及３波型（ＴＷ）。夏季北太平洋ＳＳＴ的主要异常型为赤道东太平洋型（ＥＥＰ）,阿拉斯加湾型（ＢＡＬ）,热带中太平洋（ＣＴＰ）,以及北部北太平洋型（ＮＮＰ）。而夏季北大西洋ＳＳＴ的主要异常型为赤道大西洋型（ＥＡＬ）,加勒比海型（ＣＡＲ）,东部北大西洋型（ＥＮＡ）和中部北大西洋型（ＣＮＡ）。夏季中高纬海气之间的最强相关出现在海气异常对应的空间位置上。这种区域性或邻域性的海气相关呈正相关的特征。但海气之间的相关耦合不及冬季紧密,赤道ＳＳＴＡ与中高纬５００ｈＰａ高度异常的相关不显著。太平洋ＳＳＴＡ所对应的５００ｈＰａ高度场的相关中心多为局地性,而大西洋ＳＳＴＡ所对应的５００ｈＰａ高度场的相关中心呈现更有组织性的,甚至是波状的形态。     

冬季中高纬500hPa高度和海表温度异常特征及其相关分析

用旋转主分量（ＲＰＣ）方法，分析１９４８年到１９８８年４０个冬季的中高纬５００ｈＰａ高度场以及全球海表温度异常（ＳＳＴＡ）场的最主要的时空分布特征。然后通过交叉相关来讨论海气的同期相关特征。结果显示，冬季中高纬５００ｈＰａ高度场最明显的异常型分别是太平洋北美型（ＰＮＡ），西太平洋型（ＷＰ），西大西洋型（ＷＡ）以及东大西洋欧亚型（ＥＡＥＵ）。冬季ＳＳＴＡ最明显的区域是赤道东太平洋（ＥＥＰ）和赤道大西洋（ＥＡＬ）。其次是中纬度东北太平洋（ＮＥＰ）及两大洋西部（ＮＷＰ和ＮＷＡ）。中高纬度海气之间有很好的相关。与中高纬度５００ｈＰａ高度场ＰＮＡ型明显相关的是中高纬度东北太平洋（ＮＥＰ）和赤道东太平洋（ＥＥＰ）的ＳＳＴＡ。前者的强相关中心在中高纬；后者的强相关中心在中低纬。而与ＷＡ型明显相关的是中高纬度北大西洋的ＳＳＴＡ。中高纬度海气之间最强的相关在海气异常对应的空间位置上。而且这种区域性或邻域性的海气相关呈正相关，暖ＳＳＴＡ对应于正高度异常，冷ＳＳＴＡ对应于负高度异常     

青藏高原东北侧初夏干湿年500 hPa环流场特征分析

使用ＮＣＥＰ／ＮＣＡＲ１９５８～１９９７年４０年再分析全球月平均网络点资料以及青藏高原东北侧地区同期１７个站降水量观测资料,选取了初夏最干旱的３个年份（１９６２,１９９,１９９７年）和最湿润的３个年份（１９６７,１９８４,１９８５年）,分析计算了初夏典型干湿年东亚范围内５００ｈＰａ平均位势高度场,风矢场、涡度场和散度场,指出青藏高原东北侧初夏干旱和多雨与中高纬环流特征有关,表现在物理量场上有显差     

中国南方多雪年环流特征及对关键区海温的响应

根据NECP/NCAR月平均再分析资料,采用回归分析、合成分析等方法,探讨了La Nia（El Nio）气候背景下,大气外强迫因子北大西洋中纬度（45°N,30°W）、赤道印度洋、我国南海和东海海域海温异常对亚洲环流及我国南方降雪多寡的影响。分析发现,La Nia气候背景下,北大西洋中纬（45°N,30°W）海温为正异常,有利于500 hPa高度场亚洲中高纬叶尼塞地区（50°N, 90°E）位势高度偏高并出现阻塞型,也有利于东亚冬季风环流加强;赤道印度洋、我国南海和东海附近海温出现负异常,850 hPa高度东亚大陆沿海低纬地区风距平场出现偏北风距平,我国南方多雪,温度相对偏低。El Nio背景下,北大西洋中纬度（45°N,30°W）海温为负异常,亚洲中高纬叶尼塞地区位势高度偏低,东亚冬季风环流偏弱;赤道印度洋、我国南海和东海附近海温出现正异常,850 hPa高度东亚大陆沿海低纬风距平场出现偏南风距平,我国南方多雪,温度相对偏高。回归分析指出,冬季500 hPa亚洲中高纬叶尼塞地区（90°E附近）的位势高度正（负）异常与北大西洋中纬度（45°N,30°W）附近海温正（负）异常有关;冬季850 hPa东亚大陆沿海低纬地区偏南（北）风距平与赤道印度洋、我国南海和东海地区的海温正（负）异常有关。La Nia气候背景下的2008年1月我国南方低温、雨雪、冰冻极端灾害事件的发生可能与北大西洋中纬度（45°N,30°W）附近以及赤道印度洋、我国南海和东海海温都出现正异常有关。     

10──20天准双周振荡的经向传播及地理特征

本文采用ＥＣＭＷＦ１９８３年７月１日至９月１２日逐日２００ｈＰａ纬向风场资料，用复经验正交方法讨论了１０－２０天低频振荡的经向传播及地理特征。结果表明：（１）１０－－２天振荡有三个显著区域：贝加尔湖附近地区；赤道９０°Ｅ附近以及新加坡、马来西亚地区；８０－１００°Ｅ，２２－３２°Ｎ之间。（２）源于较高纬度地区的振荡与源于赤道附近地区的振荡在１０５°Ｅ，１７—２３°Ｎ附近同位相相遇，在９０°Ｅ，２０°Ｎ附近反位相相叠加，振荡相互削弱，在２５°Ｎ附近同位相相遇。（３）从振荡位相来看，中南半岛东南部、马来西亚北部、菲律宾以西区域的振荡向北传播到中国东南沿海，向西传播到孟加拉湾印度半岛；２０°Ｎ以南低纬度地区的振荡很少能传播到８０°Ｅ以东３０°Ｎ附近地区；位于９０－９５°Ｅ，２５－２７°Ｎ之间的振荡以及贝加尔湖附近地区的振荡可以向南北两个方向传播。     

青藏高原冬春季雪盖对东亚夏季大气环流影响的数值试验

利用ＩＡＰ２－ＬＡＧＣＭ进行了青藏高原冬春季雪盖异常对东亚夏季大气环流、加热场和降水影响的数值试验。结果表明，该影响十分显著，持续性很强。当高原冬春季雪盖异常增厚、范围扩大时，夏季（ＪＪＡ）高原地区及我国北方５００ｈＰａ位势高度降低，南方变高，西太平洋副高减弱。大气对雪盖异常的响应呈明显的波列特征。我国北方大部地区土壤温度降低，南方土壤温度升高。夏季各月降水异常分布形势并不完全一致，但与同期５００ｈＰａ高度场异常分布形势有关。     

CMA-GFS模式对东北半球环流形势预报能力的检验评估

基于CMA全球模式（CMA-GFS）2019年10月至2020年12月逐日20:00（北京时）起报的数据,对东北半球高空气象要素预报进行检验评估,检验的要素包括500 hPa位势高度场和风场、 850 hPa温度场和700 hPa相对湿度场。结果表明：（1）从模式预报效果的时间变化来看,预报效果有明显的季节变化,500 hPa位势高度和850 hPa温度的预报场和分析场的相似度在夏季最低,700 hPa相对湿度场的相似度在冬季最低;随着预报时效的增加,各要素的误差幅度在夏季最小。（2）从模式预报效果的空间变化来看,500 hPa位势高度场在东北半球大部分地区预报场与分析场具有较高相似度,且中高纬地区相对低纬地区更相似,预报误差的幅度则在低纬地区相对较小高纬地区相对较大,且预报偏差以大范围负偏差为主。相比而言,模式对东亚地区的位势高度及其梯度具有更高预报技巧。850 hPa温度场预报相似度和误差幅度与500 hPa位势高度场分布相似,预报偏差则主要表现为中高纬地区温度预报整体偏低,中低纬地区偏高。在预报前期（24～48 h）, 20°N以北的中高纬地区温度预报场与分析场相似度较高,均方根...     

EOF-CCA模型在山东季降水预测中的应用

首先介绍了ＥＯＦ－ＣＣＡ模型的基本原理及建模步骤,阐明了经验正交函数分解（ＥＯＦ）和典型相关分析（ＣＣＡ）两种统计方法在短期气候预测应用中结合的必然性及优越性,并指出该模型可由一个气候场或多个气候场去预报另一个气候场。然后以山东１３站的报隆水量场为预报场,分别以前期整个北半球和东亚区域的５００ｈＰａ月平均们势高场为因子场,建立了位势高度场的前１３个主分量场与季降水场之间的ＥＯＦ－ＣＣＡ模型,最后对     

1993年北半球环流特征及其对我国天气气候的影响

１９９３年北半球主要环流特征表现为：５００ｈＰａ副产持续加强西伸，位置偏南；亚洲中纬度春，夏经向环流发展，东亚太平洋遥相关型稳定；西藏高原５００ｈＰａ位势高度持续偏高，印缅槽持续偏弱；１００ｈＰａ位势高度场低纬持续偏高，中，高纬持续偏低，夏季南亚高压位置异常偏高。热带海洋出现明显异常，一次新的厄尔尼诺现象发生。热带海洋和北半球大气环流的异常对我国天气气候产生明显影响。     

冬季赤道中东太平洋区域海表温度异常对北太平洋风暴轴年际变化的影响

对１５个冬季北太平洋风暴轴区域５００ｈＰａ天气尺度滤波位势高度方差与同期热带太平洋海表温度进行了奇异值分解（ＳＶＤ）分析,结果表明,ＳＶＤ得到的第一对空间典型分布反映了赤道中、东太平洋区域海温异常对风暴轴变化的影响。进一步的合成分析显示,赤道中、东太平洋区域海表温度异常可以通过激发或加强５００ｈＰａ高度场上的ＰＮＡ遥相关型,主要影响冬季北太平洋风暴轴的东西摆动及其中、东端的强度变化。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings

正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any     

Index to Vol.31

正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang;     

Information for Contributors

正Journal of Meteorological Research is an international academic journal in atmospheric sciences edited and published by Acta Meteorologica Sinica Press,sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Society.It has been acting as a bridge of academic exchange between Chinese and foreign meteorologists and aiming at introduction of the current advancements in atmospheric sciences in China.The journal columns include Articles.Note and Correspondence,and research letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome.