Long-term variations in river and sea factors responsible for the hydrological regime and morphological structure of the Thames River mouth area

General geographic features of the Thames River, its basin, and mouth area, consisting of the tidal mouth reach of the river, a large estuary, and an open nearshore zone of the river mouth (the North Sea coastal zone) are discussed. The peculiarities of river and sea hydrological factors responsible for the regime of the Thames River mouth area are described in detail. Characteristics of the river water runoff were specified and supplemented by the data on the river inundations in the area of London. Particular emphasis was placed on variations in the mean sea level in the area of the Thames River mouth as well as on specific features of tides and storm surges in the area of the sea inlet into the estuary. Main regularities in the estuary evolution during Holocene and present-day morphological processes in the Thames River mouth area were revealed.     

Tides and storm surges in the Thames River Estuary

Processes of interaction between river flow, tides, and storm surges in the Thames Estuary are discussed. The main regularities in water dynamics during tides and surges are revealed. Specific changed in characteristics of tides and surges along the estuary are established. Mention is made of the significant longterm increase in the ranges of tides and surges during the XX century. The history of floods caused by storm surges in the Thames Estuary and in the area of London is described. Hydraulic engineering measures for flood control in the area of London are discussed.     

Hydrological processes in the mouth area of the Hong Ha (Red River)

The main features of hydrological processes taking place in the mouth area of the Hong Ha River in Vietnam are considered. The geographic and hydrological conditions in the Hong Ha River basin and in its receiving water body—the Gulf of Tonkin, South China Sea—are briefly characterized. The main features of the mouth area of the Hong Ha River as a specific geographic object are identified. The hydrological regime of the delta and the nearshore zone of the Hong Ha River are described in detail. Water balance of the delta, runoff water levels and delta inundation, water and sediment runoff distributions over delta branches, and the effect of tides, typhoons, and storm surges on delta regime are considered. Present-day problems of the use and protection of natural resources at the Hong Ha River mouth are briefly discussed.     

Regularities in sea level rise impact on the hydrological regime and morphological structure of river deltas

The problem of assessment of sea level rise impact on the hydrological regime and morphological structure of river deltas is discussed. Studies of the response of river deltas, which are among the most vulnerable natural objects, to the sea level rise has become urgent because of the global climate warming and the associated acceleration of the World Ocean level rise. Methods are described that can be used for the analysis, calculation, and prediction of sea level rise impact on submergence of deltas, propagation of backwater from the sea tides, surges, and salt seawater intrusion. Special emphasis is given to channel processes in delta branches, which accompany sea level rise, as well as to delta coastline erosion and flow redistribution among branches. In the course of research, due consideration was taken of the experience gained in studying the response of river deltas on the Caspian Sea coasts to the recent considerable level rise in this water body.     

Hydrological and morphological processes at the Zhujiang River mouth area, China

Hydrological and morphological processes in the Zhujiang River (Pearl River) mouth area of China are discussed. The hydrological regime of the Xijiang River, which is the largest river of South China and the main source of water inflow into the Zhujiang mouth area, is described. The basic features of the hydrological regime of the delta and the near-shore zone of the Zhujiang River mouth are characterized, much attention being given to the role of tides and mixing of river and sea water in the hydrological regime. Special emphasis is placed on morphodynamic processes at the mouth area and the history of the Zhujiang Delta evolution.     

Hydrological processes in the mouth area of the Nemunas (Neman) River

The geographic characteristics of the Nemunas (Neman) River basin is presented with due consideration for the hydrological regime of this river and the Curonian Lagoon (Marios). The following geographic and hydrographic features of the Nemunas mouth area are described in detail: the landscape and climatic conditions, delta water balance, water flow distribution among branches, flow-induced changes in water levels, specific features of ice regime in the delta, storm surges, and floods.     

Tide–surge interactions and their effects on total sea levels in Irish coastal waters

The research presented in this paper involves the application of the joint probability method to the estimation of extreme water levels resulting from astronomical tides and surge residuals and the investigation of the effects of tide–surge interactions on extreme water levels. The distribution of tide peaks was analysed from field records (<20 years) and a 46-year dataset of monthly maximum tidal amplitudes. Large surges were extracted from both field records and a numerical model hindcast covering the 48 largest storm events in the Irish Sea over the period 1959–2005. Extreme storm surges and tides were independently modelled using the generalised extreme value statistical model, and derived probability distributions were used to compute extreme water levels. An important, and novel, aspect of this research is an analysis of tide–surge interactions and their effects on total water level; where interactions exist, they lead to lower total water levels than in the case of independency. The degree of decrease varies with interaction strength, magnitude of surge peak at a particular phase of tide and the distribution of peaks over a tidal cycle. Therefore, including interactions in the computation of extreme levels may provide very useful information at the design stage of coastal protection systems.     

Geodetic observation of sea-level change and crustal deformation in the Baltic Sea region

Based on tide gauge observations spanning almost 200 years, homogeneous time series of the mean relative sea level were derived for nine sites at the southern coast of the Baltic Sea. Our regionally concentrated data were complemented by long-term relative sea-level records retrieved from the data base of the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL). From these records relative sea-level change rates were derived at 51 tide gauge stations for the period between 1908 and 2007. A minimum observation time of 60 years is required for the determination of reliable sea-level rates. At present, no anthropogenic acceleration in sea-level rise is detected in the tide gauge observations in the southern Baltic. The spatial variation of the relative sea-level rates reflects the fingerprint of GIA-induced crustal uplift. Time series of extreme sea levels were also inferred from the tide gauge records. They were complemented by water level information from historic storm surge marks preserved along the German Baltic coast. Based on this combined dataset the incidence and spatial variation of extreme sea levels induced by storm surges were analysed yielding important information for hazard assessments. Permanent GPS observations were used to determine recent crustal deformation rates for 44 stations in the Baltic Sea region. The GPS derived height change rates were applied to reduce the relative sea-level changes observed by tide gauges yielding an estimate for the eustatic sea-level change. For 13 tide gauge-GPS colocation sites a mean eustatic sea-level trend of 1.3 mm/a was derived for the last 100 years.     

The Hydrological Regime and the Peculiarities of Formation of the Po River Delta

The peculiarities of the hydrological regime of the delta and near-shore zone of the Po River are discussed. The intrusion of salt seawater into the delta is described. The history of the Po Delta formation has been restored on the basis of the analysis of historical, archeological, and cartographic data. As shown, the peculiarities of hydrological and morphological processes in the Po River mouth are associated with natural and specifically with human-induced variations in sediment runoff of the river, with levee construction along branches, subsidence of deltaic deposits, and eustatic rise of the sea level.     

Identification of extreme storm surges with high-impact potential along the German North Sea coastline

Planning and design of coastal protection rely on information about the probabilities of very severe storm tides and the possible changes that may occur in the course of climate change. So far, this information is mostly provided in the form of high percentiles obtained from frequency distributions or return values. More detailed information and assessments of events that may cause extreme damages or have extreme consequences at the coast are so far still unavailable. We describe and compare two different approaches that may be used to identify highly unlikely but still physically possible and plausible events from model simulations. Firstly, in the case when consistent wind and tide-surge data are available, different metrics such as the height of the storm surge can be derived directly from the simulated water levels. Secondly, in cases where only atmospheric data are available, the so called effective wind may be used. The latter is the projection of the horizontal wind vector on that direction which is most effective in producing surges at the coast. Comparison of events identified by both methods show that they can identify extreme events but that knowledge of the effective wind alone does not provide sufficient information to identify the highest storm surges. Tracks of the low-pressure systems over the North Sea need to be investigated to find those cases, where the duration of the high wind is too short to induce extreme storm tides. On the other hand, factors such as external surges or variability in mean sea level may enhance surge heights and are not accounted for in estimates based on effective winds only. Results from the analysis of an extended data set suggest that unprecedented storm surges at the German North Sea coast are possible even without taking effects from rising mean sea level into account. The work presented is part of the ongoing project “Extreme North Sea Storm Surges and Their Consequences” (EXTREMENESS) and represents the first step towards an impact assessment for very severe storm surges which will serve as a basis for development of adaptation options and evaluation criteria.     

Long-Term Water Level Variations in the Eastern Sea of Azov and in the Mouth Reach of the Don River

Studies of long-term water level variations at marine hydrometeorological stations in the eastern Sea of Azov established a rise in the sea level which accelerated in the past 40 years. Allowance for the tectonic component permitted assessing the average rate of eustatic rise in the level. Oppositely directed long-term level variations were established in the mouth area of the Don River. Water level was found to rise at the downstream gages because of the backwater effect caused by the Sea of Azov level rise and delta deposits subsidence and to drop at the upstream gages mainly because of bed erosion owing to a reduction in sediment runoff after the construction of the Tsimlyanskoe Reservoir.     

Modeling of ice phenomena in the mouth of the Vistula River

The mouth of the Vistula River, which is a river outlet located in tideless area, is analyzed. The Vistula River mouth is a man-made, artificial channel which was built in the 19th century in order to prevent the formation of ice jams in the natural river delta. Since the artificial river outlet was constructed, no severe ice-related flood risk situations have ever occurred. However, periodic ice-related phenomena still have an impact on the river operation. In the paper, ice processes in the natural river delta are presented first to refer to the historical jams observed in the Vistula delta. Next, the calibrated mathematical model was applied to perform a series of simulations in the Vistula River mouth for winter storm condition to determine the effects of ice on the water level in the Vistula River and ice jam potential of the river outlet.     

Probabilistic Estimates of Water Level in the Ural River Mouth Reach at Interaction between the River Runoff and Positive Setups

A probabilistic technique is developed for assessing water level in the mouth reach of the Ural River in the course of interaction between the river runoff and irregular rises in the Caspian Sea level (positive setups) at the predicted background sea levels of –26.5 and –26.0 m abs.     

A two-way nested coupled tide-surge model for the Taiwan Strait

A two-way nested coupled tide-surge prediction model was established and applied in the Taiwan Strait and adjacent sea area in this study. This two-dimensional (2D) model had a fine horizontal resolution and took into account the interaction between storm surges and astronomical tides, which made it suitable for depicting the complicated physical properties of storm surges in the Taiwan Strait. A two-way nesting technique and an open boundary condition developed from Flather's radiation condition and Røed and Smedstad's local mode idea, were successfully implemented in the model. A simulation experiment showed that the open boundary condition could be used in the coupled tide-surge model and that the performance of the two-way nested model was slightly superior in accuracy to that of the one-way nested one.The fluctuations of storm surge residuals with tidal period at Sansha and Pingtan tide stations during the period of typhoon Dan in 1999 were well reproduced by the model, with the coupling effect between storm surges and tides indicating that the effect of astronomical tides upon typhoon surges should be considered in a storm-surge prediction model for the Taiwan Strait. The forecast experiment during typhoon Talim in 2005 showed that the storm surge prediction outputs by the model were better in the early 20 h of the forecast period of each model run than those in the later period due to the prediction accuracy of the typhoon track, maximum winds, and central air pressures.     

Long-Term variations in water levels in the Volga mouth area and their dependence on the Caspian Sea level variations

Long-term water level variations in the Volga mouth area and the effect exerted on them by the river’s flow and the Caspian Sea’s level variations are considered. Quantitative relationships were identified between the mean annual water levels at different gages in the mouth and the sea level. A backwater component was isolated in the long-term variations in water level in the Volga mouth area. Relationships between the daily water levels in the mouth and the Caspian Sea’s level at fixed water flow in the delta apex are presented. The magnitude and the propagation distance of backwater from the sea into the delta are specified. The responses of the mouth areas of rivers emptying into the Caspian Sea to sea level variations in the past century are compared.     

Hydrological Regime of the Nile Delta and Dynamics of Its Coastline

General information on the Nile River basin is presented. Specific features of the morphological regime of the Nile Delta and its near-shore zone, as well as the delta water balance and groundwater regime are discussed. The dynamics of the sea coastline of the Nile Delta is described in great detail. It is shown that the recent delta of the Nile and its sea coastline have been formed under the joint impact of the eustatic sea level rise, subsidence of sediments in the northern part of the deltaic plain, and considerable decrease in the river sediment runoff after the construction of the Aswan High Dam.     

Hydrological and morphological processes in the mouth area of the Columbia River (United States) and their changes under the impact of large-scale hydroengineering works

The main hydrological and morphological features of the Columbia River mouth area, including its tidal estuary, are discussed. Close attention is given to the characteristics of large-scale hydraulic projects in the river basin as well as to dredging and channel training operations in the river mouth area and to the assessment of the impact of these operations on hydrological and morphological processes. Variations in the regime of river flow after its regulation, processes of dynamic interaction and mixing of river and sea water in the estuary are characterized. Changes of the mouth bar and sea coasts near the Columbia River mouth as a result of construction of stream-training jetties are discussed.     

River and sea water interaction and delta formation in tidal mouth area of the Fraser River (Canada)

The history of studies and development of water resources of the Fraser River (Canada) and its mouth area is presented. The history of the Fraser River delta development and the hydrologomorphological processes that occur at this delta are discussed. Close attention is given to the analysis of processes of dynamic interaction and mixing of river and sea water under the joint impact of river flow and tidal fluctuations.     

Water Level Fluctuations in the Kuban River Delta over the Period of Many Years

Three areas with different trends in water level variations over the period of many years have been distinguished within the Kuban Delta. It was found that the eustatic level rise of the Sea of Azov and soil subsidence on the sea edge of the delta and in the lower reaches of the Protoka Branch were responsible for the noticeable rise in water levels. A considerable water level drop caused by the river runoff regulation and erosion of the lower pool of the Krasnodarskii Waterworks was recorded in the upper part of the delta; in the rest part of the delta, water levels dropped insignificantly, which was partially due to the impact of the tectonic uplift.     

Sediment balance at river mouths and the formation of deltas at rising or falling sea level

Sediment balance at river mouths—a physical basis of delta dynamics—is considered. The specific features of relationships between sediment balance components at a mouth of a river are established for a stable, rising, or dropping sea level. The development of the delta of the Chilia branch at the Danube mouth is considered as an example of delta dynamics under the conditions of a relatively stable sea level. The evolution of the Sulak delta in the Caspian Sea with a highly variable level is considered as an example of delta dynamics in the case of a considerable rise and drop of water level in the water body. The anthropogenic reduction of sediment runoff of the rivers (by a factor of two in the Danube, and by a factor of nine in the Sulak) is taken into account. The relationship between the sediment runoff of a river and the volume of the “backwater prism” that formed due to sea level rise is shown to be the key factor in the development of delta in the case of sea level rise. In the case of a drop in the sea level, the relationship between the “active” and “passive” progradation of the delta into the sea is determined by the sediment runoff of the river, the rate of sea level drop, and the bed slope in the coastal area of the nearshore zone.