Editorial

The Far North Queensland city of Cairns has a significant history of exposureto the impact of a wide range of natural hazards, most notably tropical cyclones.A program of publicly funded research, using Cairns as its `living laboratory'and aimed at understanding the risks posed by these hazards was a central partof Australia's involvement in the International Decade for Natural DisasterReduction. This program involved input from all three levels of governmentin Australia – national, state and local – as well as academe, industry and the Cairns community.This paper outlines the background to this program of research and an overview ofthe Cairns community that provides context for the other papers in this issue. Whilemuch of the scientific effort has been focused on developing a better understandingof the hazard phenomena involved, an important outcome of the Cairns research hasbeen the evolution of techniques by which to develop a better understanding of thecommunity at risk and strategies by which to reduce their risk.     

Quantifying Storm Tide Risk in Cairns

The United Nations International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)gave rise to an increasing level of attention to the risks posed by a range of naturalhazards and the development of strategies by which to reduce those risks. It waswidely recognised that in order to evaluate risk treatment strategies it was necessaryto `measure' the level of risk that already existed and the level of risk that would beencountered with the treatment strategy(s) in place.This paper outlines the methodology developed under the AGSO (now GeoscienceAustralia) Cities Project to quantify the risk associated with storm tide inundation. It includes the methodology for `measuring' the level of community exposure to storm tide hazards and the methodology for `measuring' community vulnerability. The Far North Queensland city of Cairns is used as the case study to demonstrate the application of these methods.     

The Flood Risk in Cairns

The Cairns region, on the north tropical coast of Queensland, forms part of the wettestarea in Australia, with mean annual rainfalls of 2,000 to 4,000 mm. During the summerand early autumn months, intense rainfalls associated with cyclones and other tropicalweather influences persist for several days, and can produce severe flooding in theBarron, Mulgrave and Russell Rivers and smaller drainage systems. There is oftensome loss of life and the damage to buildings, transport infrastructure, sugar cane andother agricultural crops can easily exceed 100 million. Very high intensity rainfallsover shorter periods, only a few hours, also present a significant urban flash flood risk,as happened at Townsville City, some 300 km to the south of Cairns, in January 1998.Despite the use of good floodplain management practices in recent decades, the combinedrisk of severe river floods and urban drainage floods is relatively high when comparedwith the other more damaging, but less frequent, natural hazards.     

Natural hazard impacts in small island developing states: A review of current knowledge and future research needs

Small island developing states (or SIDS) are exposed to a large number of natural hazards and many characteristics of small island developing states make them particularly vulnerable to the impacts of natural hazards. In spite of this acknowledged vulnerability, there are relatively few studies which focus on the impacts of natural hazards in these countries. This paper presents a review of our current state of knowledge of impacts in small island developing states and highlights a number of research needs. Central to these is the need to integrate natural hazards research within a sustainable development context and the need to exploit existing procedures such as government coordinated disaster impact assessments to generate a detailed understanding of natural hazards impacts.     

Exposure of main critical facilities to natural and man-made hazards in Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands

The level of exposure to the impact of natural and man-made hazards of the main critical facilities at Grand Cayman (GC), Cayman Islands, was determined using the methodology developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coastal Services Center. Previous studies identified hurricanes as the most important natural hazard for GC. However, other hazards include earthquakes, tsunamis and explosions or leaks of fuel storage tanks. Our results indicate that: (1) About 82% of the emergency response infrastructure, 95% of the government facilities, and 85% of the utilities have a level of exposure from low to moderate; (2) only 12% of all identified critical facilities at GC are highly exposed; (3) large explosions or leaks of the Airport Texaco Fuel Depot, the local fuel pipeline, and the Home Gas Terminal could impact nearby critical infrastructure. The facilities identified with a high level of exposure are as follows: the Bodden Town Clinic and Police Station, the West Bay Fire Station, the Georgetown Dock and Port, and the Esso and Texaco Fuel terminals. Most portions of the coastal roads are moderately exposed to natural and man-made hazards. The most exposed sections are four short segments of the road system located along the North Sound, Little Sound and Eastern West Bay area. In some cases, the high exposure of critical facilities stems from their location on the coastline. In other cases, however, adequate policies to either protect or to relocate these facilities would help to reduce their level of exposure to both natural and man-made hazards.     

Community Vulnerability to Tropical Cyclones: Cairns, 1996–2000

This paper is a partial discussion of a four-year study that investigated the vulnerability of the people living in the Cairns region to the tropical cyclone hazard. The longitudinal case study, focussing on the Cairns Northern Beaches area, was unique in that it included a social and societal `pre-cyclone impact' evaluation of various resident communities within the region, and then two consecutive `post-cyclone impact' studies. The primary research method supported an inductive qualitative approach to the collection and analysis of survey data. Some quantitative methods were invoked to support qualitative research findings. Survey data was collected in five separate questionnaire-based social surveys that were administered between 1996 and 2000. During the study, residents experiencedthe direct impact of two land-falling tropical cyclones. In addition to this, targeted andfocussed tropical cyclone awareness education was made increasingly available withinthe community. The social and demographic attributes that influence the individual'sperception of risk and contribute to our understanding of community vulnerability were examined and evaluated. Changes in the residents' attitudes, cyclone preparednessbehaviours and willingness to respond to cyclone warnings were monitored and measured. Analysis of early survey data indicated that community residents generally had some knowledge of cyclones but a limited understanding of cyclone processes and very little direct personal experience of the cyclone hazard. Individually and collectively, residents frequently demonstrated a biased perception of the risks associated with cyclones. The resident community was shown to be fragmented, with limited support being available to individual households. Initially, residents were found to be poorly prepared for cyclones and unlikely to respond to warnings appropriately. It appeared that, in the event of a land-falling tropical cyclone impacting the area, the community was highly vulnerable to unnecessary loss of property, livelihood and – in extreme circumstances – life. By 2000, Cairns community residents were somewhat better informed about cyclones and certainly more experienced. This paper provides some insight into how cyclone experience and education may synergisticly have contributed to a change in risk perceptions and a reduction in the vulnerability of Cairns residents to the tropical cyclone and storm surge hazards.     

The Tropical Cyclone Risk in Cairns

Because of its location close to a region of tropical cyclone formation, the city ofCairns is regularly affected by tropical cyclones. Most cyclones occur in the monthsJanuary–March, although some have affected Cairns in December and April. There is a strong year-to-year variation in tropical cyclone numbers in the Cairns region, with twice as many impacts occurring during La Niña conditions than during El Niño. Several case studies are presented of cyclone impacts on Cairns. Rapidly developing cyclones are a particularly difficult forecast problem, as they can strike the city with less than 24 hours warning. Serious inundation from storm surge often occurs some time after landfall at Cairns.     

Geological and hydrogeological environment in Shanghai with geohazards to construction and maintenance of infrastructures

Shanghai Administrative Region (SAR) is located on the deltaic deposit of the Yangtze River. The bed rock under SAR is generally buried in the depth of 200 m to 300 m except for several massifs, where the bed rock is exposed to the ground surface. The Quaternary deposit in Shanghai is soft sediment. The variation of palaeoclimate influenced the sea level and resulted in a very complicated sedimentary environment. The Quaternary deposit in SAR is composed of an alternated multi-aquifer-aquitard system (MAAS). The groundwater system is composed of one artesian aquifer and five confined aquifer layers with very high groundwater pressure head. The MAAS was formed mainly within the warm geological era updated to 2.6 million years ago. Between two aquifers, there is an aquitard which is composed of soft clayey soil formed mainly within the cold era. The aquitards are composed of very soft clayey silt with very high compressibility and humus content. The humus material was transformed into methane gas under a long-term geological process. With the development of economy, the infrastructures were (or are being) constructed in the top shallow soft clayey deposit, aquifer I and aquifer II. In SAR, the following geohazards occurred or possibly occur during the construction and maintenance of infrastructures: i) quicksand and piping hazards; ii) pumping-induced hazards and recharge-cutoff hazards; iii) long-term settlement due to the seasonal fluctuation of groundwater level; and iv) geohazards of methane gas.     

辽宁省瓦房店市华铜矿矿山地质灾害治理方案概述

华铜矿矿山主要有尾矿坝、海水入侵、地面塌陷、矿井突水、滑坡、围岩大变形冒顶等地质灾害.通过矿山现状地质灾害类型及其危险性分级、地质灾害勘查技术方法介绍,对地质灾害的成因和预测做了概括性分析,提出了可操作的、有效的地质灾害治理方案,认为矿山环境恢复工程具有显著的社会效益和经济效益.因该矿山地质灾害的复杂性,建议治理项目应分阶段逐步完成.     

Regional landslide risk to the Cairns community

A GIS-based regional reconnaissance-level assessment of landslide risk to the Cairns community has been carried out to provide information to the Cairns City Council for planning and emergency management purposes. Magnitude recurrence relations were tentatively established for the two main slope processes: landslides on the hill slopes; and large debris flows extending out from the gully systems on to the plains. From the recurrence relations, landslide hazard (H) was estimated as the annual probability of a point being impacted by a landslide. The nature, number (E) and geographic distribution of the elements at risk were obtained by interrogating the GIS, and their vulnerabilities (V) to destruction by the two main landslide slope processes were assessed. From this information, specific risk (= H × V) and total risk (= H × V× E) maps were produced.Although total landslide risk is relatively low at present, it will increase as development extends further into the hill slopes, unless adequate mitigation measures are taken. Large debris flows, while considerably less frequent than landslides on cut slopes, could impact on subdivisions at the base of the slopes. Blockage by landslides of roads and railways providing access to Cairns can cause isolation of the community. Flash flooding in Freshwater Creek, or debris flows, have the potential to disrupt the Cairns water supply by blocking the intake or destroying sections of the pipeline.     

北京西山石炭-二叠纪煤系变形变质特征与地质灾害

北京西山石炭 二叠纪煤系分布区地质灾害类型 (尤其是采空区地面塌陷 )与处于同一地区的侏罗纪煤系有明显的差别。造成差别的因素很多。在区域构造位置、区域应力场分布格局、煤矿开采深度、煤系岩石组合和煤质特征、采区地形坡度、风化剥蚀条件、煤炭开采技术及工艺等因素中 ,煤系岩石组合和煤质特征是主要因素。对煤系岩石组合和煤质特征的研究成果表明 ,其变形变质特征是决定煤系岩石物理性质的重要因素。在北京西山的地质灾害调查和成因研究中逐步认识到 ,地质灾害类型及强度与煤系及煤层的物理性质关系密切。因此 ,煤系的变形变质特征研究 ,既是基础地质问题 ,也是工程地质问题 ,应是煤炭分布区与采空相关的地质灾害研究中的重要内容之一。     

江西省九江市规划区地质灾害易发性评估

在阐述九江市规划区的地质背景、地形地貌特征和水文地质、工程地质条件及其地质灾害发育现状的基础上,对规划区的地质灾害易发性进行了较详细的评估,圈定出十里铺、沙河街和狮子3个地面塌陷易发区;国棉二厂、官湖、炼油厂和沙河街4个地面塌陷较易发区。在规划区内选取11个均为土岩混合斜坡,斜坡坡度15°~30°,斜坡高度20m~100m,强风化带厚度和残坡积层厚度均小于3m的自然斜坡进行评估,其中有6个为稳定性中等,占总数的54.5%,稳定性好的5个,占总数的45.5%。并提出了地质灾害防治建议。     

Geo-spatial assessment of community vulnerability to flood along the Ravi River,Ravi Town,Lahore, Pakistan

Natural Hazards - Pakistan is exposed to hydro-meteorological and geological hazards. Flood is one of the hydro-meteorological hazards, and so far 25 major floods have occurred in Indus River...     

Multi-risk governance for natural hazards in Naples and Guadeloupe

Technical and institutional capacities are strongly related and must be jointly developed to guarantee effective natural risk governance. Indeed, the available technical solutions and decision support tools influence the development of institutional frameworks and disaster policies. This paper analyses technical and institutional capacities, by providing a comparative evaluation of governance systems in Italy and France. The focus is on two case studies: Naples and Guadeloupe. Both areas are exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, floods, tsunamis, fires, cyclones, and marine inundations Cascade and conjoint effects such as seismic swarms triggered by volcanic activity have also been taken into account. The research design is based on a documentary analysis of laws and policy documents informed by semi-structured interviews and focus groups with stakeholders at the local level. This leads to the identification of three sets of governance characteristics that cover the key issues of: (1) stakeholders and governance level; (2) decision support tools and mitigation measures; and (3) stakeholder cooperation and communication. The results provide an overview of the similarities and differences as well as the strengths and weaknesses of the governance systems across risks. Both case studies have developed adequate decision support tools for most of the hazards of concern. Warning systems, and the assessment of hazards and exposure are the main strengths. While technical/scientific capacities are very well developed, the main weaknesses involve the interagency communication and cooperation, and the use and dissemination of scientific knowledge when developing policies and practices. The consequences for multi-risk governance are outlined in the discussion.     

Extreme wind gust hazard in Australia and its sensitivity to climate change

For consideration of structural design of buildings and infrastructure in Australia, this paper presents hazard modelling and mapping of extreme wind gusts under the current climate and likely future climate change. Statistical and probabilistic approaches are applied to analyse the daily extreme wind gust data recorded between 1939 and 2007 at 545 anemometer stations around Australia. The estimated hazards are compared with the regional design wind speeds specified by the structural design standard, AS/NZS 1170.2:2011. Our results indicate that, under the current climate, structures in the areas on the west of and around Brisbane, Queensland and Newcastle, New South Wales, may be under higher gust hazard than they are designed for. Sensitivity study shows that these areas are also sensitive to the projected synoptic wind intensity changes. When subjected to ±20 % intensity change and ±50 % occurrence frequency change of tropical cyclones, the northwest coast of Western Australia, the northern part of Northern Territory, and the northeast coast between Cairns and Townsville, Queensland, will experience around ±10 m/s changes in extreme wind gust speeds of 500-year return period.     

Natural and man-made hazards in the Cayman Islands

In this work, we analyze the various natural and man-made hazards that may affect the Cayman Islands and determine the level of exposure of Grand Cayman to these events. The magnitude, frequency, and probability of occurrence of the natural and man-made hazards that may potentially affect the islands are identified and ranked. The more important natural hazard to which the Cayman Islands are exposed is clearly hurricanes. To a lesser degree, the islands may be occasionally exposed to earthquakes and tsunamis. Explosions or leaks of the Airport Texaco Fuel Depot and the fuel pipeline at Grand Cayman are the most significant man-made hazards. The results of the hazard evaluation indicate that there are four areas in Grand Cayman with various levels of exposure to natural and man-made hazards: The North Sound, Little Sound, and Eastern West Bay (Area 1) show a very high level of exposure; The Central Mangroves, Central Bodden Town, Central George Town, and the West Bay (Area 2) have high level of exposure; The Northwestern West Bay, Western Georgetown-Bodden Town, and East End-North Side (Area 3) are under moderate levels of exposure. The remainder of the island shows low exposure (Area 4).     

白龙江流域地质灾害特征及勘查思路

白龙江流域地处青藏高原向黄土高原过渡的斜坡急剧变形带,是我国泥石流、滑坡灾害最为严重的地区之一。“8．8”舟曲泥石流灾难的发生,再次暴露了对地质灾害调查研究程度不高,预警预报能力低,以及风险减缓措施不力的弊端。为了避免类似群死群伤重大地质灾害的发生,应进一步加强调查和研究等基础工作。进一步勘查的思路是：首先是对迭部、舟曲、宕昌、武都、文县、康县等6各县,按照《1：5万滑坡崩塌泥石流灾害调查规范》要求,全面开展调查;二是对危及县城、集镇、重要居民点的地质灾害隐患点,按照规划前期勘查的精度要求,逐一进行勘查;三是针对不同类型的地质灾害发育分布规律、形成机理、成灾模式、监测预警技术、风险减缓措施等问题开展专题研究。     

四川泸定地区岩土体类型与地质灾害

岩土体为地质灾害的活动主体。地质灾害的孕育、发生和成灾等,都是岩土体的不同活动形式的反映。不同岩土体具有不同的物理、力学及水理性质,其可能产生的地质环境问题也不同。在进行灾害预测评价时,必须充分考虑不同岩土体与地质灾害的关系。     

Hazard transformation and hazard management issues in the London megacity

Megacities are likely to present the greatest future challenges for hazard management. In them increasingly complex societies are continually modifying responses to dynamic sets of external risks. Although most have proven resilient to past disasters, new types of threat are emerging. London — which is both the world's oldest megacity and one of its most resilient — has long experience of the transformation of hazards in time and space. Although not as hazard-prone as some megacities, this one is increasingly exposed to a wide range of interactive hazards. Here trends of flooding, air pollution and terrorism are discussed together with policy responses. London demonstrates that robust action can be successful in reducing high-intensity hazards but it also shows that contemporary management is characterised by top-down technological fixes whose long-term effectiveness is questionable. In general, anticipatory responses have been limited and present-day London has not capitalised on its rich legacy of successful experience in coping with hazard.     

Risk perception in Unión Juárez,Chiapas, Mexico

The proximity to the Tacaná volcano, to the subduction zone between the Cocos and North America plates, to the Mexican coast, and to the active geologic Polochic-Motagua fault makes the population of Union Juarez (UJ), Chiapas, Mexico, exposed to many natural hazards including hurricanes, earthquakes, landslides, and volcanic eruptions. We assessed the risk perception of UJ, and our findings indicate that the community has moderate level of risk perception according to the scale of the National Center for Disaster Prevention of Mexico. The UJ’s risk perception is mainly dependent on gender and religion because females unlike males in case of disasters and emergencies: (1) believe that it is necessary to improve their preparedness; (2) trust the local civil protection authorities; (3) would know how to respond; (4) would follow the established protocols; and (5) would not relocate. On the other hand, non-religious people know better the protocols to follow in the event of disasters than the religious population. Besides, the community of UJ reasonably perceives earthquakes and extreme rains as the main hazards that they are exposed to, while volcanic hazards are considered less important although the town is located very close to the Tacaná volcano that has been active during the last 30 years. The local population lacks of proper knowledge and resources to develop adequate disaster mitigation plans. Surprisingly, the work of the local civil protection is considered poor. Our results can be used for local authorities as a tool to strength the disaster prevention actions in UJ.