基于ARDL模型的滑坡地下水水位预测

滑坡稳定性与地下水水位变化有密切的关系,准确预测滑坡地下水位的波动过程,能有效地开展滑坡预警并降低成本。利用中林滑坡的监测数据,建立降雨量和地下水水位的自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型,能突破隐藏裂隙的优先流难以刻画的局限,确定降雨引起地下水水位变化的滞后时间、影响系数和有效时段。通过统计在不同降雨强度下地下水水位变幅的变异系数,分析影响滑坡地下水水位的有效降雨量阈值,并对ARDL模型进行修正。将模型预测值与实测值进行对比,验证模型对滑坡地下水水位预测的有效性。研究表明,修正后的模型能更好地预测强降雨条件下滑坡地下水水位迅速涨落的过程。     

河岸带土壤磷素空间分布及其对水文过程响应

野外观测太湖地区典型农业河岸带——浯溪荡河岸带土壤总磷（TP）和溶解性总磷（DTP）含量以及当地降雨量、河水水位和地下水水位,探讨了丰水年条件下该河岸带土壤TP和DTP的空间分布特征以及水文过程对其空间分布的影响。结果表明:①在水平方向上,土壤TP和DTP含量从远岸向近岸均呈现先减少后增加的变化趋势;在深度方向上,各断面TP和DTP含量随土层深度的增加均呈减少的变化趋势。②不同月份河水水位均低于地下水水位,地下水补给河水。河水水位和地下水水位随时间的变化规律与降雨量的相似,但具有一定的滞后性。③降雨是土壤水分运动的主要驱动力,降雨、河水水位以及地下水水位对河岸带土壤磷素空间分布的影响显著不同。     

焦作煤矿区岩溶水水位统计模型研究

针对研究区地下水系统结构等资料不完备,本文基于质量守恒原理和微积分原理,建立了地下水水位统计预测模型和水位延迟模型,并在焦作矿区得到验证。焦作矿区岩溶地下水对于降水响应结果表明,当延迟时间为10个月时,岩溶地下水水位与降水的相关系数最大,为0.83,而延时2个月和5个月时,相关系数分别只有0.71和0.78;模型观测孔水位预测结果表明,相关系数超过0.9的观测孔达60 %,相关系数超过0.8的观测孔则高达95 %;模型水位影响因素分析结果显示,在降雨、矿坑排水、地下水蒸发3个影响因素中,煤矿区岩溶地下水水位动态对降雨量响应最敏感,说明降雨量,尤其是长期稳定的补给量是地下水水位最主要的影响因素。该类模型适用性强,简易方便,有广阔的应用前景。      

淮北平原降雨入渗补给系数随地下水埋深变化特征

水文地质参数对地下水资源评价起着至关重要的作用。其中,降雨入渗补给系数是影响浅层地下水水量、水质的重要参数。它对研究区域水量转化和水量平衡也十分重要。但是由于受降雨量、土壤类型、植被、地下水埋深等诸多因素的影响,准确判断降雨入渗补给系数存在很大困难。如果没有考虑这些因素的影响,尤其是降雨量和地下水埋深的影响,所推求的降雨入渗补给系数就会存在较大误差。结合安徽省淮北平原区五道沟水文实验站观测的降雨量、地下水补给量、地下水水位资料,利用两种不同的方法推求了不同降雨量等级的次降雨入渗补给系数。根据统计学理论研究了不同降雨量条件下,次降雨入渗补给系数随地下水埋深变化的分布规律,建立了次降雨入渗补给系数与地下水埋深的回归模型,并进行了相应的检验。研究表明,在控制地下水埋深的条件下,次降雨入渗补给系数随地下水埋深的变化符合指数分布;在地下水位自由变动的条件下符合伽玛分布。     

渭南市地下水动态变化规律分析

通过线性回归、非线性回归分别建立地下水水位与地下水开采量、降水量之间的关系方程,并以渭南市地下水动态变化为例进行分析。结果表明,地下水水位多年动态主要受控于地下水的人工开采,而降水量对其影响不是主要因素。     

川北山丘区地下水补给特征与定量研究

针对川北山丘区地下水资源和污染防护研究中地下水补给难以定量等问题,以川北典型山丘区平溪河北岸的山丘区子流域为研究对象,布设监测孔并对其地下水的水位和水温开展动态监测,并基于大气压监测数据校正地下水监测水位,分析了山丘区地下水水位及水温的年内动态变化特征;采用渗水试验和分段双栓塞水文地质试验获取含水层空间渗透系数;基于达西断面法定量计算了研究区内观测断面的地下水径流补给量,并建立了月降雨量与降水入渗系数的函数关系,结果显示:研究区多年平均大气降水入渗补给量为16.61mm,多年平均降水入渗系数为0.0182;月降雨量与降水入渗系数呈幂函数关系;此成果可为研究区地下水资源、地下水防污性能评价及地下水数值模拟等研究提供重要依据。     

临汾市地下水水位控制指标确定方法研究

以山西临汾市为例,为制定合理的地下水水位考核指标。基于区域多年地下水水位监测数据、开采量和降雨量基础资料,将2019年作为现状年,利用水文学和统计学方法,对临汾市2020-2025年地下水水位控制指标进行计算确定,最终确定了临汾市2020-2025年具体的超采区和未超采区的地下水水位控制指标数据。通过对计算出的具体控制指标数据进行评价分析,提出应加强地下水监测仪器设备的运维工作,保证区域地下水监测站网运行的稳定性和可靠性,对地下水监测基础数据应进行仔细校核和分析,最终确保数据的合理性。为临汾市最严格水资源管理制度的落实和地下水监督管理提供准确的科学依据。     

浅层地下水氮污染的影响因素分析--以松嫩盆地松花江北部高平原为例

研究区浅层地下水中的NO-3质量浓度在时间分布上与降雨(包括降雨期、降雨量)和施肥(包括施肥期、施肥量)存在较大的相关性.同一年内9月份(丰水期末)浅层地下水中NO-3质量浓度大于5月份(枯水期末)的质量浓度.年际间总体变化趋势随年降雨量的变化而变化.在空间分布上主要受地下水水位埋深、水力坡度、含水层岩性及厚度的影响,水位埋深越大、含水层渗透性越强、水力坡度越小,浅层地下水中NO-3质量浓度增高的趋势越明显.为验证上述定性分析所得结论的可靠性,采用因子分析法对上述时空变量进行了定量评价.结果表明,研究区浅层地下水中的氮污染主要是上述时空变量共同影响的结果,其中降雨和水位埋深对其影响程度相对较大.     

基于长观水位及历史降雨量的建筑抗浮水位取值研究

以贵阳市地铁2号线三桥站主体结构基坑抗浮为研究对象,根据长观孔3~5年地下水位与降雨量关系对地下水位动态变化进行分析,提出一种定量计算抗浮水位的取值方法:抗浮水位值包括三个部分,勘察期间场区地下水最高水位（Hkmax）、可能的意外补给造成该层地下水位的上升值（ΔH0）及该层地下水相对勘察时的最大变幅值（ΔHe）;长观孔地下水位呈雨季升高、枯季下降的变化规律,最高水位出现在6、7月份;通过对4、5、6月份的降雨量与观测孔水位进行线性拟合,得到地下水位变化量与月降雨量变化量的线性变化关系;结合历史降雨量推测场区地下水位的最大升幅为2.26 m,进而计算场区的抗浮水位为1 128.46 m。      

昆明盆地浅层孔隙水水位动态变化特征及其影响因素

根据盆地内地下水水位动态曲线特征及其影响条件,将孔隙水年内变化动态划分为灌溉型、开采型和降雨型等三种类型。在时程演变上,近20年来,除少数开采井点水位下降外,区内大多数富水块段地下水位一般变化不大或略有回升。盆地西部、北部地下水水位表现出一种缓慢抬升的过程。而盆地东部边缘和南部呈贡附近地下水受开采影响,水位呈下降趋势。受城市化发展的影响,昆明盆地地下水普遍遭受污染,浅层地下水开采强度在降低,同时,农业用水量也在减少,在一定程度上对区内孔隙水水位抬升有很大影响。然而90年代以来,昆明地区进入一个相对丰水期,降雨量的增加是盆地内孔隙水水位整体抬升的根本原因。     

多元线性回归方法在地下水水位预测中的应用

在对已有长期开采资料的水源地进行资源评价时,充分利用长系列观测资料,可采用多元线性回归方法对地下水水位的变化规律进行研究对其变化趋势进行预测,本文重点对相关因素的确定和多元线性回归方法的应用进行了研究。     

Spatio-temporal analysis of groundwater levels and projection of future trend of Agra city,Uttar Pradesh,India

Access to water resources is one of the major challenges being faced worldwide. Water scarcity, particularly groundwater resource, is the major ubiquitous concern for the country. Almost half of the country is reeling under severe ground water crisis due to anthropogenic and natural reasons (basalt rock surface). Agra region situated in the western part of Uttar Pradesh state of India has a semi-arid climate. The study area, which has a history of water scarcity since medieval ages, has seen a spurt of acute water shortage in recent times owing to the expansion of a very dense built-up area and excessive haulage accompanied by decline in rainfall. A study was under taken for identifying the trends in pre- and post-monsoon groundwater levels for Agra city, Uttar Pradesh. Pre-monsoon and post-monsoon groundwater depth data of 16 observation wells for the 2007–2016 period were collected and analyzed using ARC GIS 10.2 software. The rainfall trend during the study period was also studied to understand its role in groundwater fluctuation level. Statistical tests like Mann-Kendall, Sen’s slope estimator, and linear regression model were applied to understand the trend and rate of change in groundwater level. The land use/land cover map of the study area was integrated with groundwater map to have a primary understanding of the spatial trend of groundwater scenario of the study area. The result obtained is quite alarming for the city’s groundwater scenario. Results showed that the groundwater levels had significantly declined during 2007–2016. Average rates of water level decline were 0.228 and 0.267 m/year during pre- and post-monsoon seasons, respectively. There was a rapid decline in water level between 2008 and 2009 and between 2013 and 2014. The average rate of decline of pre- and post-monsoon groundwater level in the city during this period is 0.32 and 0.30 m/year, respectively. Significant decrease in groundwater level is found in 84.21% of wells for pre- and post-monsoon as obtained through Mann-Kendall analysis at 95% confidence level. During pre-monsoon season, the rate of decline according to Sen’s slope estimator varied between 0.74 and 2.05 m/year. Almost similar picture of decline is portrayed through linear regression slope wherein the computed rate of decline varied between 0.75 and 2.05 m/year. During post-monsoon, the rate of decline according to Sen’s slope varied between 0.13 and 1.94 m/year. Similar trend statistic is obtained through linear regression method where the declining rate is between 0.14 and 1.91 m/year. Comparison of the three statistical tests indicates similar nature of declining trend. The result of this research raises concern about the future of groundwater resources in Agra city. The findings of this study will assist planners and decision-makers in developing better land use and water resource management.     

Groundwater abstraction impacts on spring flow and base flow in the Hillsborough River Basin, Florida, USA

Groundwater abstraction has resulted in spring flow and groundwater base-flow declines in the Hillsborough River system of central Florida, USA. These declines have resulted in reduction of inflows to the Tampa city reservoir as well as likely adverse environmental effects on riverine and estuarine biota. Causes evaluated for the declines include effects of groundwater development, reduced rainfall, and land alterations. The karstic, heterogeneic nature of the area renders groundwater flow modeling an ineffective method for overall evaluation. Therefore, the evaluation of these declines is accomplished through the systematic use of parametric and nonparametric statistical techniques. These techniques include contingency table analysis, linear regression, Kendall-Theil and Mann-Kendall trend analysis, locally weighted regression, Pearson correlation, Kendall-tau correlation, Spearman correlation, runs test, Student’s t test, and the Kruskall-Wallis test. Data evaluated include groundwater withdrawals, rainfall, base flow, streamflow, stream stage, spring flow, and groundwater levels. Additional methods used include double mass analysis, base flow separation, a low-stage trend analysis, data visualization techniques, and water level change maps. The methodical application of these analyses and techniques to the hydrologic and climatic data yields the conclusion that the primary factor causing the spring flow and base-flow declines is lowered groundwater levels caused by over-abstraction.     

Vulnerability of groundwater systems with sea level rise in coastal aquifers, South Korea

Groundwater systems in coastal aquifers may be affected by sea level change as increased seawater intrusion occurs with sea level rise. Artificial pumping taking place at the same time will increase this impact. In order to estimate the vulnerability of groundwater systems with sea level rise within coastal aquifers in South Korea, long-term groundwater data were analyzed using basic statistics, trend analysis, and correlation analysis. Conductivity depth profiling was also periodically conducted. Groundwater levels increased in wells with relatively low groundwater elevations but decreased in wells with higher groundwater elevations. At the same time, conductivity variations were greater in wells located in reclaimed land areas, which vertical conductivity profiles indicated were more affected by sea level variations, but decreased on the mainland. Results of auto-correlation analysis showed a decreasing trend with cyclic variations and significant periodic patterns during dry seasons, indicating that groundwater levels were not affected by artificial factors and that those in reclaimed land areas were less affected by rainfall than on the mainland. These results coincided with those from cross-correlation analysis showing that groundwater level was affected by sea level variation during the dry season. Sea level changes, which may be related to climate change, as well as rainfall in South Korea can influence groundwater levels, and the groundwater system in reclaimed land areas may be more affected than on the mainland, especially under dry conditions.     

Characterizing the interaction of groundwater and surface water in the karst aquifer of Fangshan,Beijing (China)

Correct understanding of groundwater/surface-water (GW–SW) interaction in karst systems is of greatest importance for managing the water resources. A typical karst region, Fangshan in northern China, was selected as a case study. Groundwater levels and hydrochemistry analyses, together with isotope data based on hydrogeological field investigations, were used to assess the GW–SW interaction. Chemistry data reveal that water type and the concentration of cations in the groundwater are consistent with those of the surface water. Stable isotope ratios of all samples are close to the local meteoric water line, and the ³H concentrations of surface water and groundwater samples are close to that of rainfall, so isotopes also confirm that karst groundwater is recharged by rainfall. Cross-correlation analysis reveals that rainfall leads to a rise in groundwater level with a lag time of 2 months and groundwater exploitation leads to a fall within 1 month. Spectral analysis also reveals that groundwater level, groundwater exploitation and rainfall have significantly similar response periods, indicating their possible inter-relationship. Furthermore, a multiple nonlinear regression model indicates that groundwater level can be negatively correlated with groundwater exploitation, and positively correlated with rainfall. The overall results revealed that groundwater level has a close correlation with groundwater exploitation and rainfall, and they are indicative of a close hydraulic connection and interaction between surface water and groundwater in this karst system.     

Groundwater-level prediction using multiple linear regression and artificial neural network techniques: a comparative assessment

The potential of multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) techniques in predicting transient water levels over a groundwater basin were compared. MLR and ANN modeling was carried out at 17 sites in Japan, considering all significant inputs: rainfall, ambient temperature, river stage, 11 seasonal dummy variables, and influential lags of rainfall, ambient temperature, river stage and groundwater level. Seventeen site-specific ANN models were developed, using multi-layer feed-forward neural networks trained with Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation algorithms. The performance of the models was evaluated using statistical and graphical indicators. Comparison of the goodness-of-fit statistics of the MLR models with those of the ANN models indicated that there is better agreement between the ANN-predicted groundwater levels and the observed groundwater levels at all the sites, compared to the MLR. This finding was supported by the graphical indicators and the residual analysis. Thus, it is concluded that the ANN technique is superior to the MLR technique in predicting spatio-temporal distribution of groundwater levels in a basin. However, considering the practical advantages of the MLR technique, it is recommended as an alternative and cost-effective groundwater modeling tool.     

湖南宁乡大成桥岩溶地下水对暴雨响应特征及多元回归预测模型

通过降雨、水位监测等方法，研究湖南宁乡大成桥岩溶地下水位动态及对暴雨的响应过程，探讨地下水内在联系特征并建立回归预测模型。结果表明:雨季地下水位对降雨响应程度高，水位变幅大，而枯季则相反；在暴雨条件下，接受快速管道流补给的地下水位动态响应为陡升—陡降，水位变幅在13.6~42.8 m；接受裂隙、孔隙水补给的地下水位动态表现为缓升—缓降，年变幅为1.1 m；雨季地下水位对暴雨响应的滞后时间为1.2~4 h，较相同条件下的水位响应滞后时间缩短了1/2~2/3，水位变幅增大1.7~4.7倍；枯季地下水位对暴雨响应的滞后时间为4.2~13.2 h，水位响应滞后时间延长了3~8 h，水位变幅缩减了5~11倍；包气带厚度和含水饱和度对水位动态起着决定作用，包气带厚度与水位响应滞后时间负相关，含水饱和度与水位变幅正相关；通过相关性分析、拟合优度检验、显著性检验和残差分析等，确定最优回归预测模型，模型检验结果与实际水位动态过程吻合度较高。      

大庆西部地下水位降落漏斗区水资源人工调蓄方案

对地下水资源的长期大量集中开采形成了区域性地下水位降落漏斗,地下水的超采引发了一系列环境地质问题。利用降落漏斗区腾空的地下储水空间进行水资源的人工调蓄可使地下水位得到恢复。以地下水为主要供水水源的大庆市目前已形成了东西两个大的区域性地下水位降落漏斗,必须进行地下水人工调蓄。设计并模拟了现状开采、逐年压缩分别在现采和压采基础之上进行人工回灌等4种人工调蓄方案,对大庆西部地下水位降落漏斗区进行水资源人工调蓄。结果表明,压缩开采和人工回灌均可加速降落漏斗区地下水位的恢复,在逐年压缩地下水开采量5%的情况下实施人工回灌（0.45×10⁸m³/a）,地下水位恢复效果最明显,到2010年末,漏斗中心地下水位可回升7.7~10.3 m。