Studies on the contribution of some geological factors to seismic hazard

The present study is primarily meant to make a separation of the amplification effects in the intensity distribution within the macroseismic field function of their different causes, i.e. the activation of some regional tectonic lines during the seismic motion and local seismogeological conditions.With this end in view, the methodology used consists of filtering the direct macroseismic observations by means of the weighted mean-values method and outlining the regional and local field anomalies.The regional anomaly map of the macroseismic field of the 4 March 1977 Vrancea earthquake, including the southern and south-eastern part of the Outer Carpathian Zone, has been analyzed. Some dislocations, located in the platform basement, which functioned as seismic energy amplifiers during the event, have been identified.The results obtained can be used in seismotectonic and microzoning studies.Paper presented at the 21st General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, Sofia, 1988.     

Local seismic hazard assessment in areas of weak to moderate seismicity—case study from Eastern Germany

Generally the seismic hazard of an area of interest is considered independent of time. However, its seismic risk or vulnerability, respectively, increases with the population and developing state of economy of the area. Therefore, many areas of moderate seismic hazard gain increasing importance with respect to seismic hazard and risk analysis. However, these areas mostly have a weak earthquake database, i.e., they are characterised by relative low seismicity and uncertain information concerning historical earthquakes. In a case study for Eastern Thuringia (Germany), acting as example for similar places in the world, seismic hazard is estimated using the probabilistic approach. Because of the lack of earthquakes occurring in the recent past, mainly historical earthquakes have to be used. But for these the actual earthquake sources or active faults, needed for the analysis, are imprecisely known. Therefore, the earthquake locations are represented by areal sources, a common practice. The definition of these sources is performed carefully, because their geometrical shape and size (apart from the earthquake occurrence model) influence the results significantly. Using analysis tools such as density maps of earthquake epicentres, seismic strain and energy release support this. Oversizing of areal sources leads to underestimation of seismic hazard and should therefore be avoided. Large location errors of historical earthquakes on the other hand are represented by several alternative areal sources with final superimposition of the different results. In a very similar way information known from macroseismic observations interpreted as source rather than as site effects are taken into account in order to achieve a seismic hazard assessment as realistic as possible. In very local cases the meaning of source effects exceeds those of site effects very likely. The influence of attenuation parameter variations on the result of estimated local seismic hazard is relatively low. Generally, the results obtained by the seismic hazard assessment coincide well with macroseismic observations from the thoroughly investigated largest earthquake in the region.     

The Balei earthquake of 6 January 2006 (Mw = 4.5): a rare case of seismic activity in eastern Transbaikalia

The Balei earthquake of 6 January 2006 (M_w = 4.5) was felt over a large part of Transbaikalia. Judging by its updated source parameters (earthquake mechanism, seismic moment, and moment magnitude), the event was generated by the Balei–Darasun fault reactivated in the Cenozoic. Exhaustive macroseismic evidence has been collected for the first time from the study area. The reported results fill up the gap in the seismological knowledge of eastern Transbaikalia and can be used for seismic risk mapping and earthquake prediction.     

The 1905 Chamonix earthquakes: active tectonics in the Mont Blanc and Aiguilles Rouges massifs

Linking earthquakes of moderate size to known tectonic sources is a challenge for seismic hazard studies in northwestern Europe because of overall low strain rates. Here we present a combined study of macroseismic information, tectonic observations, and seismic waveform modelling to document the largest instrumentally known event in the French northern Alps, the April 29, 1905, Chamonix earthquake. The moment magnitude of this event is estimated at M_w 5.3 ± 0.3 from records in Göttingen (Germany) and Uppsala (Sweden). The event of April 29 was followed by several afterschocks and in particular a second broadly felt earthquake on August 13, 1905. Macroseismic investigations allow us to favour a location of the epicentres 5–10 km N–NE of Chamonix. Tectonic analysis shows that potentially one amongst several faults might have been activated in 1905. Among them the right lateral strike-slip fault responsible for the recent 2005 M_w = 4.4 Vallorcine earthquake and a quasi-normal fault northeast of the Aiguilles Rouges massif are the most likely candidates. Discussion of tectonic, macroseismic, and instrumental data favour the normal fault hypothesis for the 1905 Chamonix earthquake sequence.     

The determination of the epicentre by a vectorial modelling of macroseismic intensity distribution

A vectorial modelling of observed macroseismic intensity aimed at the analytical determination of the epicentre is proposed here. The methodology is based on the determination of a plane system of vectors which characterises the macroseismic intensity distribution. The epicentre of each seismic event considered is determined as the centre of this vector system by an analytical expression which is independent from all possible directions of seismic energy propagation. The analysis of the intensity distribution is carried out by a new model called a macroseismic plane, different from the one known as macroseismic field, formed by a set of small areas built around the observed intensity points; hence its name.With the proposed methodology, some earthquakes in southern Italy and eastern Sicily are analysed calculating their epicentres, also for distributions of observed intensity which are particularly complex.     

Anisotropic characterization of macroseismic fields

A methodology for the anisotropic characterization of macroseismic fields is proposed, in order to evaluate seismic hazard, based on the real geometry of the isoseismals of the field. The proposed methodology, independent of the macroseismic intensity attenuation law, allows both for a single field and for several fields in the same source zone, the determination of minimum and maximum attenuation values and of the relative directions.     

Preliminary Quantitative Assessment of Earthquake Casualties and Damages

Prognostic estimations of the expected number of killed or injured people and about the approximate cost associated with the damages caused by earthquakes are made following a suitable methodology of wide-ranging application. For the preliminary assessment of human life losses due to the occurrence of a relatively strong earthquake we use a quantitative model consisting of a correlation between the number of casualties and the earthquake magnitude as a function of population density. The macroseismic intensity field is determined in accordance with an updated anelastic attenuation law, and the number of casualties within areas of different intensity is computed using an application developed in a geographic information system (GIS) environment, taking advantage of the possibilities of such a system for the treatment of space-distributed data. The casualty rate, defined as the number of killed people divided by the number of inhabitants of the affected region, is also computed and we show its variation for some urban concentrations with different population density. For a rough preliminary evaluation of the direct economic cost derived from the damages, equally through a GIS-based tool, we take into account the local social wealth as a function of the gross domestic product of the country. This last step is performed on the basis of the relationship of the macroseismic intensity to the earthquake economic loss in percentage of the wealth. Such an approach to the human casualty and damage levels is carried out for sites near important cities located in a seismically active zone of Spain, thus contributing to an easier taking of decisions in emergency preparedness planning, contemporary earthquake engineering and seismic risk prevention.     

Assessment of seismic risk scenarios for Bucharest,Romania

In this paper, seismic risk scenarios for Bucharest, the capital city of Romania, are proposed and assessed. Bucharest has one of the highest seismic risk levels in Europe, and this is due to a combination of relatively high seismic hazard and a building stock built mainly before the devastating Vrancea 1977 earthquake. In this study, the seismic risk of Bucharest is assessed using the most recent information regarding the characteristics of the residential building stock. The ground motion amplitudes are evaluated starting from random fields obtained by coupling a ground motion model derived for the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source with a spatial correlation model. The seismic risk evaluation method applied in this study is based on the well-known macroseismic method. For several structural typologies, the vulnerability parameters are evaluated based on a damage survey performed on 18,000 buildings in Bucharest after the March 1977 earthquake. Subsequently, the risk metrics are compared with those from other studies in the literature that apply a different risk assessment methodology in order to gain a better view of the uncertainties associated with a seismic risk study at city level. Finally, the impact of several Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquake scenarios is evaluated and the results show that the earthquake which has the closest epicenter to Bucharest appears to be the most damaging.

     

Assessment of seismic risk scenarios for Bucharest,Romania

In this paper, seismic risk scenarios for Bucharest, the capital city of Romania, are proposed and assessed. Bucharest has one of the highest seismic risk levels in Europe, and this is due to a combination of relatively high seismic hazard and a building stock built mainly before the devastating Vrancea 1977 earthquake. In this study, the seismic risk of Bucharest is assessed using the most recent information regarding the characteristics of the residential building stock. The ground motion amplitudes are evaluated starting from random fields obtained by coupling a ground motion model derived for the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source with a spatial correlation model. The seismic risk evaluation method applied in this study is based on the well-known macroseismic method. For several structural typologies, the vulnerability parameters are evaluated based on a damage survey performed on 18,000 buildings in Bucharest after the March 1977 earthquake. Subsequently, the risk metrics are compared with those from other studies in the literature that apply a different risk assessment methodology in order to gain a better view of the uncertainties associated with a seismic risk study at city level. Finally, the impact of several Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquake scenarios is evaluated and the results show that the earthquake which has the closest epicenter to Bucharest appears to be the most damaging.     

Intensity distribution of M 4.9 Haryana–Delhi border earthquake

In this study, we have prepared an intensity map based on macroseismic survey and all the available information from print and electronic media of damage and other effects due to March 05, 2012, M 4.9 Bahadurgarh (Haryana–Delhi border) earthquake and interpreted them to obtain modified Mercalli intensities (MMI) at over 62 locations surrounding the Haryana and Delhi. We have cross-checked the damage information from print and electronic media in the field at 25 sites within 110 km surrounding the epicenter for validation. Based on the questionnaire which is used in macroseismic survey and personal judgment, intensities were assigned accordingly as per physical survey at 25 sites and for rest based on media reporting. A maximum intensity of VI was assigned to this seismic event. Isoseismals of V and VI have been fully covered in the field observations. Beside this, some of the points have also been covered for isoseismal IV and isoseismal III and rest are based on media report only. The intensity map reveals several interesting features. Elliptically elongated shape of intensity map shows that most of the slightly damaged areas are concentrated toward the northwestern side of the epicenter having intensity V which may be due to directivity or site effects. A regression relation has also been derived between intensity and epicentral distance. The derived attenuation relation will be useful for assessing damage of a potential future earthquake (earthquake scenario–based planning purposes) for the Delhi NCR region.     

Earthquake scenarios: a practical way to handle alternative solutions to historical earthquakes and to increase the transparency of seismic hazard assessment

This study presents a way to handle historical earthquakes whose parameters are based on sparse documentary materials. It is recommended that discrete earthquake scenarios should be constructed in such cases. Scenarios are possible sets of parameters for a past earthquake, reconstructed on the basis of the macroseismic data available. A probability value is to be attached to each of them using expert judgment. This means that uncertainties associated with historical earthquakes become discrete instead of continuous. Assigning a probability value to each scenario and including alternative solutions in the catalogue makes decision-making more transparent. The current state of the art of the research on a given historical earthquake is documented. It is illustrated how seismic histories of a given place are altered when different scenarios of historical key earthquakes are taken into account. The seismic histories consequently have different probabilities. The choice of an appropriate seismic history could be governed by the need: For example, for a high-risk facility, the high-intensity histories have to be considered. Different earthquake scenarios included in the catalogue would permit to evaluate also the uncertainty of the activity rate and to construct the final logic tree.     

Estimation of seismic hazard with allowance for noncircular isoseismals of arbitrary orientation

A new mathematical model describing the field of macroseismic intensity has been elaborated. It is based on elliptic isoseismals. The orientation of the main axes of elliptic isoseismals depends on the direction of stretching of the main geological structures on the investigated territory.The new model of a macroseismic field was applied to the territory of Eastern Uzbekistan. Some results of macroseismic investigations of the effect of large regional earthquakes were used as initial data.A noncircular model of a macroseismic field was introduced into the integral of the seismic shakability of Riznichenko and, according to the model, a macroseismic shakability map for the territory of Eastern Uzbekistan was computed in isolines of the long-term mean return period of vibrations for the intensity I 8.Paper presented at the 21st General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, Sofia, 1988.     

The Investigation Results of the April 12, 2014, <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> = 4.5 Primorye Earthquake (Far Eastern Russia)

Primorye is a region with quite moderate shallow seismicity which has been insufficiently investigated so far in this respect. Based on the obtained instrumental data of regional seismic networks and macroseismic data collected in southwestern Primorye on the crustal earthquake with M = 4.5 occurred on April 12, 2014, we have first succeeded in determining the hypocenter parameters and the focal mechanism of the mainshock of this shallow earthquake and estimating the hypocenter parameters of the following aftershock.     

Nature of the macroseismic paradox of the deep-focus earthquake in the Sea of Okhotsk on May 24, 2013 (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> <Subscript> <Emphasis Type="Italic">w</Emphasis> </Subscript> = 8.3)

We analyzed macroseismic data and considered the effect of extremely long range propagation of sensible shocks during the deep-focus earthquake in the Sea of Okhotsk on May 24, 2013 (M_w = 8.3). In order to explain this effect, we formulated and qualitatively solved the problem of superposition of P-waves over the radial mode ₀S₀ of the natural oscillations of the Earth during this earthquake. Our results confirmed the possibility of such an interpretation of the observed macroseismic effect and also allowed us to explain the fact of anomalously low decay of seismic disturbances with distance.     

The Dibra (Albania) earthquake of November 30, 1967

On November 30, 1967, a strong earthquake of magnitude M = 6.6 struck the Dibra region, eastern Albania, causing considerable loss of human life and grave material damage both in the territory of Albania and that of Yugoslavia.The object of this study is to describe the effects of this earthquake on landscape and buildings, as well as to define its macroseismic field. The study further deals with some features of the aftershocks of M 4.0 distributed in time and space, the aftershock activity and the focal-mechanism solution of the main event.From the study of the macroseismic field of this earthquake and its fault, which extends over 10 km in a 40° northeasterly direction, from the distribution of aftershocks in space and the focal-mechanism solution of this earthquake, the conclusion has been reached that this event is connected with the Vlora—Dibra seismogenic belt.The authors have mentioned the existence of this traverse belt as early as 1969 (Sulstarova and Koçiaj, 1969). The existence of this belt is also shown by the chronological and geographical distribution of some strong earthquakes in Albania in the period 1800–1967 (their macroseismic field and the position of their epicentres), and by the focal-mechanism solutions of some of these earthquakes. The Vlora—Elbasan—Dibra transverse seismogenic belt continues for several hundred kilometres northeast and southwest beyond the territory of Albania.     

Seismotectonic features of the September 24, 1999 Ahram earthquake in the Zagros,Iran

The September 24, 1999 Ahram Earthquake in southwestern Iran was moderate in energy (M = 5.0–5.5 from different sources) and did not entail significant destruction and casualities. The tectonic position of the source zone, surficial seismic dislocations, and results of macroseismic and seismological study of this seismic event in the junction zone of the Zagros Fold System and the piedmont plain are described in the paper, including data on rejuvenated ancient ruptures exposed in two trenches excavated across the strike of the regional Kazerun-Borazjan Fault. One of the trenches was driven a few months before and the other a year after this seismic event. The conclusion is drawn that new deformations in the Quaternary near-surface sediments observed at the walls of both trenches may be regarded as unusual seismic ruptures of the Ahram earthquake. These ruptures, described as proved primary seismic dislocations of such a moderate seismic event, are a unique phenomenon in the world seismotectonic practice. The localization of the earthquake source zone in the Kazerun-Borazjan Fault Zone with complex kinematics makes it possible to study the internal structure of one of the most important tectonic lines of the Zagros Fold Region.     

The earthquake of June 1, 1905, Shkodra, Albania; Intensity distribution and macroseismic epicentre

The earthquake at Shkodra, on June 1, 1905, represents one of the strongest seismic phenomena which has occurred in Albania. This quake has attracted the attention of seismologists of various countries, some of whom have made special studies of it.It is shown that the mean epicentral intensity of this earthquake was 9 degrees (MSK-64 scale) and that the macroseismic epicentre is situated near the Trush village (42° 02′N 19°30′E).These results are based on the macroseismic data gathered from different sources: 40 photographs which show the damage caused by this earthquake in the Shkodra city of that time and which were first brought to light in 1972 (some of them are published in this paper) and on the data of seismological expeditions to the Shkodra and Lezha districts.This present paper is intended to demonstrate that soil conditions strongly influence the observed intensity even at very short distances from the epicentre. The difference of the observed intensity may be up to 2 degrees between firm (limestone, flysch) and loose soil conditions.     

The aftershock process and mechanisms of the May 30, 2004 Kostromskoe earthquake,Sakhalin

The results of the instrumental and macroseismic studies are reported for the tangible earthquake with intensity of up to 5–6 and amplitude of MLH = 4.8 that occurred near the western coast of Sakhalin Island. The main parameters of the Kostromskoe earthquake have been estimated in two versions: (1) based on the data from the local network of digital stations located in southern Sakhalin, and (2) from the complex of local, regional, and global observations. It has been noted that the development of the local network in southern Sakhalin allowed the seismic regime in the earthquake area to be investigated in more detail and the mechanisms of both the individual weak and group events to be derived. The acquired data on the dislocation style of the main shock and aftershocks in the days following the event were used for the geological-tectonic interpretation of the Kostromskoe earthquake.     

Systematization of active faults for the assessment of the seismic hazard

A systematization of active faults has been developed based on the progress of scientists from the leading countries in the world in the study of seismotectonics and seismic hazard problems. It is underlain by the concept of the fault-block structure of the geological-geophysical environment governed by the interaction of differently oriented active faults, which are divided into two groups—seismogenic and nonseismogenic faults. In seismogenic fault zones, the tectonic stress accumulated is relieved by means of strong earthquakes. Nonseismogenic fault zones are characterized by creep displacement or short-term, oscillatory, and reciprocal movements, which are referred to local superintense deformations of the Earth’s crust (according to the terminology used by Yu.O. Kuz’min). For a situation when a strong earthquake happens, a subgroup of seismodistributing faults has been identified that surround the seismic source and affect the distribution of the seismic waves and, as a consequence, the pattern of the propagation of the coseismic deformations in the fault-block environment. Seismodistributing faults are divided into transit and sealing faults. Along transit faults, secondary coseismic effects (landfalls, landslides, ground fractures, liquefaction, etc) are intensified during earthquakes. In the case of sealing faults, enhancement of the coseismic effects can be observed on the disjunctive limb nearest to the epicenter, whereas, on the opposite limb, the intensity of such effects appreciably decreases. Seismogenic faults or their systems are associated with zones of earthquake source origination (ESO), which include concentrated seismicity regions. In such zones, each earthquake source is related to the evolution of a fault system. ESO zones also contain individual seismogenic sources being focuses of strong earthquakes with M of ≥5.5 in the form of ruptures, which can be graphically represented in 2D or 3D as a surface projection of the source. Depending on the type of data based on which they are identified, individual seismogenic sources are divided into geological-geophysical and macroseismic sources. The systematization presented is the theoretical basis for and the concept of the relational database that is being developed by the authors as an information system for the generation of seismotectonic GIS projects required for the subsequent analysis of the seismic hazard and the assessment of the probability of the origination of macroseismic earthquake effects in a predetermined location.     

Constraints on the location and mechanism of the 1511 Western-Slovenia earthquake from active tectonics and modeling of macroseismic data

The 1511 Western Slovenia earthquake (M = 6.9) is the largest event occurred so far in the region of the Alps–Dinarides junction. Though it strongly influences the regional seismic hazard assessment, the epicenter and mechanism are still under debate. The complexity of the active tectonics of the Alps–Dinarides junction is reflected by the presence of both compressional and transpressional deformations. This complexity is witnessed by the recent occurrence of three main earthquake sequences, the 1976 Friuli thrust faulting events, the 1998 Bovec–Krn Mountain and the 2004 Kobarid strike-slip events. The epicenters of the 1998 and 2004 strike-slip earthquakes (M_s = 5.7 and M_s = 4.9, respectively) lie only 50 km far from the 1976 thrust earthquake (M_s = 6.5).We use the available macroseismic data and recent active tectonics studies, to assess a possible epicenter and mechanism for the 1511 earthquake and causative fault. According with previous works reported in the literature, we analyze both a two-and a single-event case, defining several input fault models. We compute synthetic seismograms up to 1 Hz in an extended-source approximation, testing different rupture propagations and applying a uniform seismic moment distribution on the fault segments. We extract the maximum horizontal velocities from the synthetics and we convert them into intensities by means of an empirical relation. A rounded-to-integer misfit between observed and computed intensities is performed, considering both a minimized and a maximized databases, built to avoid the use of half-degree macroseismic intensity data points. Our results are consistent with a 6.9 magnitude single event rupturing 50 km of the Idrija right-lateral strike-slip fault with bilateral rupture propagation.