Development and application of a methodology for vulnerability assessment of climate change in coastal cities

This research is based on the need to develop methodology for climate change vulnerability assessment in coastal cities. While there have been some studies on the development of methodologies for vulnerability assessment on a national scale, there have been few attempts to develop a method for local vulnerability assessment with application to coastal cities. The objective of this study was to develop a general methodology to assess vulnerability to climate change and to apply it to the metropolitan coastal city of Busan in South Korea. We followed the conceptual framework for assessing climate change vulnerability provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is composed of climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Sea level rises of 0.5 m, 1 m, 2 m, and 3 m were considered as the climate exposure. Sensitivity to sea level rise was measured based on the percentage of flooded area calculated using flood simulation with a GIS tool. The population density and the population at age 65 years and over were also included in the calculation of sensitivity index. Sensitivities to heat wave and heavy rainstorm were quantified using the expert opinions from the Delphi survey and information on land use classification. Adaptive capacity was assessed in three sections: economic capability, infrastructure, and institutional capabilities. By combining the adaptive capacity and three different sensitivities, vulnerability to sea level rise (SLR-V), vulnerability to heavy rainstorm (HR-V), and vulnerability to heat wave (HW-V) were separately evaluated in 16 counties of Busan. Using cluster analysis, we could classify four major groups of counties based on SLR-V, HR-V, HW-V, and reported damage cost. For clustered groups, different adaptation strategies were suggested based on the different vulnerability patterns. Application of our methodology to Busan indicated that our methodology is easy to use and provides concrete policy implications when setting up adaptation strategies. The methodology developed in this study could also be used in mainstreaming climate change into Integrated Coastal Management (ICM).     

High resolution characterization of northwest Mediterranean coastal waters thermal regimes: To better understand responses of benthic communities to climate change

In the North West Mediterranean (NWM), mass mortality events (MME) of long-lived benthic species that have occurred over the last two decades have been related to regional warming trend. Gaining robust data sets on thermal regimes is critical to assess conditions to which species have adapted, detect extreme events and critically evaluate biological impacts. High resolution temperature (T) time series obtained during 1999–2006 from 5 to 40 m depth at four contrasted sites of the NWM were analyzed: Area Marina Protegida de les Illes Medes (NE Spain), Riou (Marseilles, France), Parc National de Port-Cros (France), and Réserve Naturelle de Scandola (Corsica, France). The seasonal pattern showed winter T around 11–13 °C, and summer T mainly around 22–24 °C near surface to 18–20 °C at depth. Stratification dynamics showed recurrent downwellings (>40 m) at Medes, frequent observation (1/3rd of the summer) of deep and cold upwelled waters at Riou, while Scandola exhibited stable summer stratification and highest suprathermoclinal T. Port-Cros showed an intermediate regime that oscillated between Riou and Scandola depending on the occurrence of northern winds. Data distribution study permitted to identify and to characterize 3 large scale positive anomalies concomitant with the mass mortality outbreaks of summers 1999, 2003 and 2006. The analysis of biological surveys on gorgonian populations showed significant impacts during the 3 years with temperature anomalies. Besides the degree of impact showed inter-annual differences which could be related to different T conditions concomitant to mortality events, from slight increase in T extreme of only 1–2 °C over short duration, to lengthened more classical summer conditions. Our results therefore support the hypothesis that shallow NWM populations of long-lived benthic species are living near their upper thermal thresholds. Given actual trends and projections in NWM, the repetition of new MMEs in the next decades is extremely likely. In such context, the acquisition of dedicated high resolution T series proves to be crucial for increasing our detection, understanding and forecasting abilities.     

Assessing and reducing vulnerability to climate change: Moving from theory to practical decision-support

As climate change continues to impact socio-ecological systems, tools that assist conservation managers to understand vulnerability and target adaptations are essential. Quantitative assessments of vulnerability are rare because available frameworks are complex and lack guidance for dealing with data limitations and integrating across scales and disciplines. This paper describes a semi-quantitative method for assessing vulnerability to climate change that integrates socio-ecological factors to address management objectives and support decision-making. The method applies a framework first adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and uses a structured 10-step process. The scores for each framework element are normalized and multiplied to produce a vulnerability score and then the assessed components are ranked from high to low vulnerability. Sensitivity analyses determine which indicators most influence the analysis and the resultant decision-making process so data quality for these indicators can be reviewed to increase robustness. Prioritisation of components for conservation considers other economic, social and cultural values with vulnerability rankings to target actions that reduce vulnerability to climate change by decreasing exposure or sensitivity and/or increasing adaptive capacity. This framework provides practical decision-support and has been applied to marine ecosystems and fisheries, with two case applications provided as examples: (1) food security in Pacific Island nations under climate-driven fish declines, and (2) fisheries in the Gulf of Carpentaria, northern Australia. The step-wise process outlined here is broadly applicable and can be undertaken with minimal resources using existing data, thereby having great potential to inform adaptive natural resource management in diverse locations.     

The role of coastal setbacks in the context of coastal erosion and climate change

Coastal erosion and storms represent a source of risk for settlements and infrastructure along the coast. At the same time, coastal natural assets, including landscape, are threatened by increasing development mainly driven by tourism. The Mediterranean coast is especially vulnerable to these processes, considering its high biological and cultural diversity. An additional challenge is represented by climate change, as it will force coastal communities to apply more or less drastic adaptation strategies. Coastal setbacks, used to protect coastal communities and infrastructure from storms and erosion, and to preserve coastal habitats and landscapes from degradation, is one of the main instruments suggested by the Protocol on Integrated Coastal Zone Management of the Barcelona Convention, entered into force on the 24 of March 2011. Its implementation has the potential to influence coastal policies in other regions, such as the neighbouring Black Sea.The CONSCIENCE project has formalized concepts and conducted specific studies to provide new tools for coastal erosion management practice. The objective of this paper is to present a synthesis of the research conducted into coastal setbacks for coastal erosion management and climate change adaptation. This is done by analysing the requirement of the Protocol, current processes and management practices in two case study areas (Costa Brava Bays in Spain and Danube Delta, in Romania) and the new challenges posed by climate change.     

Socio-economic vulnerability due to climate change: Deriving indicators for fishing communities in Mumbai

This paper assessed the socio-economic implications of climate change and vulnerability of fishing communities known as “Koli” living in Mumbai, India. The vulnerability indicators are derived from sustainable livelihood literature and use of multi-criteria analyses and are validated with expert opinions. A survey of two hundred fishermen from five fishing villages in Mumbai was conducted to collect data. The results demonstrate that vulnerability perpetuates due to physical and financial resource constraints among the fishing community. Fishermen from Madh and Worli villages are observed to be more vulnerable and less adaptive due to their inability to use efficient mechanized boats and advanced fishing implements, such as fish finders and GPS (Global Positioning System). The divergence in the vulnerability scores among fishing villages is attributed to the coping strategies, resource availability, knowledge and the benefit derived from the local government. Fishermen have been observing the negative impacts of climate change on their fishing livelihoods. Adaptation strategies to maximize fish catch are observed in such practices as targeting different species and fishing intensively for several days. However, these practices are leading to an imbalance in the common resource pool and biased resource sharing among different groups of fishermen.     

Preparedness of key coastal and marine sectors in Ireland to adapt to climate change

Preparedness to adapt to the impacts of climate change was assessed for three important sectors of activity within the Irish coastal and marine environment, namely tourism, fisheries, and conservation of biodiversity. Information on the current status of each sector is a valuable point of reference in terms of accessing contribution to the implementation of future national adaptation efforts. A modified version of the National Adaptive Capacity (NAC) framework developed by the World Resources Institute was used to assess the three sectors of activity. This framework is structured around five functions: assessment, prioritisation, coordination, information management, and climate risk reduction; results of the assessment suggest that all three sectors are at the nascent stages of the climate change adaptation process. Currently there is no dedicated national policy guidance or legal support mechanism on adaptation in Ireland; hence there is no national financial commitment to support implementation of adaptation actions for any of the sectors assessed. Subjecting these three selected sectors of activity to such an assessment enables identification of existing actions that can potentially support current adaptation, as well as where issues such as knowledge gaps and lack of policy support hinder progress.     

Pathways of integrated coastal management from national policy to local implementation: Enabling climate change adaptation

Integrated coastal management (ICM) has been developing concomitantly with the realisation of the severity of the potential impacts of climate change. The discourse on climate change and adaptation has also included the awareness that adaptation must take place at all levels of government, particularly local government. Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on the physical, social, environmental and economic environments of coastal cities and towns, and in particular on the poor and vulnerable communities within these cities and towns. The crucial role that local government can play in climate protection and building cities' and communities' resilience to climate change is widely recognised at the global level. This paper explores the legal and policy connexion between ICM, local government and climate change in Mozambique and South Africa, two developing countries in Africa. The state of institutionalisation of coastal management at national through to local government is also examined. The authors contend that the state, character and maturity of the ICM policy domain can create an enabling environment within which local government agencies can prepare for future impacts of climate change. Conversely it can also limit, delay and hinder climate change adaptation. The paper concludes with the identification of some key success factors for assessing the effectiveness of the existing policy and legal frameworks to respond to the challenges of climate change. It also identifies some key principles to be included in future legislative reform to promote ICM, cooperative governance and greater preparedness for climate change at local government level.     

Limits and barriers to adaptation to climate variability and change in Bangladeshi coastal fishing communities

Limits and barriers to adaptation restrict people’s ability to address the negative impacts of climate change or manage risks in a way that maximises their wellbeing. There is a lack of evidence of this on small-scale fishing communities in developing countries. This study identifies and characterises limits and barriers to adaptation of fishing activities to cyclones and examines interactions between them in two fishing communities in Bangladesh, using household questionnaires, oral history interviews, vulnerability matrices and focus group discussions. The limits include physical characteristics of climate and sea like higher frequency and duration of cyclones, and hidden sandbars. Barriers include technologically poor boats, inaccurate weather forecast, poor radio signal, lack of access to credit, low incomes, underestimation of cyclone occurrence, coercion of fishermen by the boat owners and captains, lack of education, skills and livelihood alternatives, unfavourable credit schemes, lack of enforcement of fishing regulations and maritime laws, and lack of access to fish markets. These local and wider scale factors interact in complex ways and constrain completion of fishing trips, coping with cyclones at sea, safe return of boats from sea, timely responses to cyclones and livelihood diversification. The findings indicate a need for further detailed research into the determinants and implications of such limits and barriers, in order to move towards an improved characterisation of adaptation and to identify most suitable means to overcome the limits and barriers.     

The impact of climate change on prawn postlarvae fishing in coastal Bangladesh: Socioeconomic and ecological perspectives

In Bangladesh, prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) farming remains dependent on the capture of wild postlarvae as hatchery production is still inadequate. However, prawn postlarvae fishing has been accompanied by concerns over recent climate change. Different climatic variables including cyclone, salinity, sea level rise, water temperature, flood, rainfall, and drought have had adverse effects on coastal ecosystem, thus determining a decline in the availability of prawn postlarvae and thereby catch. The households of postlarvae fishers also face a variety of socioeconomic constraints due to climate change. Considering extreme vulnerability to the effects of climate change, an integrated approach needs to be introduced to cope with the challenges.     

Solutions to blue carbon emissions: Shrimp cultivation,mangrove deforestation and climate change in coastal Bangladesh

In Bangladesh, export-oriented shrimp farming is one of the most important sectors of the national economy. However, shrimp farming in coastal Bangladesh has devastating effects on mangrove forests. Mangroves are the most carbon-rich forests in the tropics, and blue carbon (i.e., carbon in coastal and marine ecosystems) emissions from mangrove deforestation due to shrimp cultivation are accumulating. These anthropogenic carbon emissions are the dominant cause of climate change, which in turn affect shrimp cultivation. Some adaptation strategies including Integrated Multi-Trophic Aquaculture (IMTA), mangrove restoration, and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) could help to reduce blue carbon emissions. Translocation of shrimp culture from mangroves to open-water IMTA and restoration of habitats could reduce blue carbon emissions, which in turn would increase blue carbon sequestration. Mangrove restoration by the REDD+ program also has the potential to conserve mangroves for resilience to climate change. However, institutional support is needed to implement the proposed adaptation strategies.     

Assessing climate change impacts on coastal infrastructure in the Eastern Caribbean

Expected effects of changes in global climate include warmer temperatures, rising sea levels, and potentially more frequent and severe extreme weather events such as hurricanes and tropical storms. Low-lying states in the Caribbean are especially vulnerable to these effects, posing significant risks to public safety and natural resources.This paper highlights expected trends in the Eastern Caribbean and examines the impacts of urbanization and supporting infrastructure, siting of major structures in high-hazard areas, and negative land-use practices on fragile coastal ecosystems. It focuses on the need to reduce the vulnerability of coastal infrastructure and land uses, arguing for effective linkages between climate change issues and development planning. The paper also provides general recommendations and identifies challenges for the incorporation of climate change impacts and risk assessment into long-term land-use national development plans and strategies.     

多驱动因素下海岸带脆弱性研究进展

基于大量有关海岸带脆弱性文献的分析梳理,从动态角度构建了海岸带脆弱性概念体系,重点总结了引发海岸带脆弱性问题的驱动因素及其作用机制。在此基础上,深入分析了海岸带脆弱性定量评估方法与其适用范围和优缺点,包括IPCC通用方法、PSR模型、CVI指数等。海岸带极端气候事件和相关风险事件发生机制研究、海岸带自然生态系统的适应能力研究、人地系统要素过程的综合集成研究以及地方性在脆弱性评估中的应用研究将是未来海岸带脆弱性研究的主要方向。     

Vulnerability and adaptation of coastal communities to climate variability and sea-level rise: Their implications for integrated coastal management in Cavite City,Philippines

Coastal areas are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise. These impacts will exacerbate the risks posed by the continuing environmental degradation confronting the coastal communities.Adopting a participatory research approach, the study examines the vulnerability of socioeconomic groups among the coastal population in Cavite City, Philippines, their current adaptation strategies and their adaptive capacity to cope with the impacts of climate variability and extremes and sea-level rise. Under a future scenario of a 1-m accelerated sea-level rise (ASLR), the study also looks into its potential effects on these urban coastal communities and ecosystems.In the context of poverty reduction and sustainable development, this study suggests a local framework for integrating adaptation strategies and actions into integrated coastal management (ICM) planning. It also recommends appropriate policy and institutional reform, capacity building and improved knowledge management towards increasing the resilience and adaptive capacity of these coastal communities to current and future climate risks.     

Management of Mediterranean coastal dunes

This paper gives some theoretical concepts of dune management as well as practical examples of how actual measures should be carried out.Dune management is defined as all measures aimed at the preservation and restoration of the natural values of a coastal sand dune area. It is essential that beach and foreshore are seen as parts of a whole dune system. Management must take into account all processes within this system. It should aim at nature conservation and wise use of coastal resources and all forms of land use should be ecologically sustainable. Dune management should work as much as possible ‘with’ the natural processes and not ‘against’ them.Four types of Mediterranean dune systems (including Portugal and SW Spain) are distinguished:: mainland dunes, lagoon-bay barrier dunes, delta dunes and remnant dunes.Like in most parts of the world, Mediterranean dunes fulfill several functions at the same time. The following functions will be dealt with: nature management, coastal defence and erosion, dune stabilisation and afforestation, agriculture, tourism and urbanisation, recreation, golf, information and education. The concepts of management which are considered include: sustainable use, large and coherent units, compensation, management planning, environmental impact assessment and function analysis.Dune stabilisation is not always considered necessary. In case of stabilisation by planting, only indigenous species should be used, preferably pioneers and not trees. Planting of exotic species should be avoided.     

Size affects digestive responses to increasing temperature in fishes: physiological implications of being small under climate change

Digestive metabolism is considered key to resilience of fish populations as it determines energy and nutrient availability for growth and survival. In cleaner fishes, digestion performance also influences the amount and the rate at which parasites can be removed from co‐operating fishes, called hosts. Therefore, understanding the effect of temperature on digestive metabolic scope (i.e. the energy allocated to digestive processes) is crucial to predicting responses of fish communities to ocean warming. Body size can affect many physiologic processes and is thought to decrease with increasing temperature; therefore, we examined the effect of body mass and warming on digestive metabolic scopes in two sister species of cleaner gobies of the genus Elacatinus that reach different adult sizes. The dwarf‐size Elacatinus lobeli increased digestive metabolic rates and scope while the larger Elacatinus oceanops decreased digestive metabolic scope with warming. Intra‐specifically, larger E. lobeli also showed a decreased scope when compared to smaller individuals. Results from this study suggest that perhaps smaller fishes may have a digestive and metabolic advantage at higher temperatures and may be more resilient under warming temperatures.     

Principles for operationalizing climate change adaptation strategies to support the resilience of estuarine and coastal ecosystems: An Australian perspective

Effective publicly developed adaptation strategies are crucial in managing the impacts of Climate Change. Adaptation strategy development is particularly complex in estuarine and coastal marine ecosystems because of their diverse environmental values, extensive human utilisation and the complex socio-ecological systems they support. Although many generic adaptation frameworks are available they cannot provide specific guidance for locally relevant strategy development. In contrast, situation-specific tools work well for their intended purpose but are usually unsuitable for a different situation. The gap between generic frameworks and situation-specific tools is addressed in this study by developing a set of general principles to provide guidance for the efficient and robust development of adaptation strategies. The nine principles comprise a conceptualisation of the various factors that are likely to have an effect on the success or otherwise of an adaptation strategy and they apply in any situation. An example ‘adaptation checklist’ that serves as a guide to practitioners in the field, will help ensure that all critical components are covered during the development of an adaptation strategy.     

Upgrade of coastal defence structures against increased loadings caused by climate change: A first methodological approach

The paper presents a design exercise of upgrading a typical rock armoured revetment by modifying the structure profile and adding structure elements. Several concepts of upgrading are examined. A sea level rise corresponding to the mean of the IPCC 2007 predictions is used together with a slight increase in long-term wind/wave conditions as predicted for the North Sea by the Danish Coastal Authority. Both conditions of non-acceptable and acceptable increase in structure crest level are considered. Moreover, a scenario for steepening of the foreshore due to morphological changes caused by increased wave impacts is included. Only desk study tools are used for the upgrade designs. A simple comparative cost optimization analysis of the various upgrading solutions is presented, and conclusions are given for the preferred upgrading concept valid for the case study structure. A short discussion of the uncertainties related to upgrading design is included. The importance of physical model tests of the structures is underlined due to insufficient desk study tools for rubble mound upgrade design.     

The coastal ocean off Oregon from 1961 to 2000: is there evidence of climate change or only of Los Niños?

A zonal hydrographic section along 44.65°N, from the coast of Oregon to 300 km offshore, was occupied regularly (at least seasonally) from 1961 to 1971 and then sporadically until recently. Regular monitoring of this section to 160 km offshore resumed in July 1997 as part of the GLOBEC Long Term Observational Program; the recent data provide observations in Oregon coastal waters of El Niño 1997–98 and La Niña conditions that followed. The complete seasonal data from the decade 1961–1971 provide a basis for comparison with the recent temperature and salinity sections, steric height profiles, geostrophic velocity, and water mass characteristics. These data, and sporadic observations in intervening years, allow us to compare conditions during several ENSO events with the recent event and to search for evidence of climate change. The PFEL Coastal Upwelling Index, sea level from the University of Hawaii Sea Level Center, the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and outflow from the Columbia River are used to distinguish local and remote causes of variability in physical oceanographic conditions off Oregon. The sequence of El Niño/La Niña/El Niño in 1963–66, during a cool phase of PDO, provides a comparison to El Niño/La Niña of 1997–2000. El Niño in 1982–83 and 1997–98, during a warm phase of PDO, caused the largest oceanographic anomalies in the 40 years. The comparison indicates warming of the coastal ocean off Oregon and suggests a modulation of ENSO effects by PDO. Such modulation would mask evidence for secular climate change in our 40-year oceanographic data series.     

气候变化与我国海洋灾害风险治理探讨

本文基于观测数据和文献资料,分析了近几十年来气候变化下我国沿海海平面和海表温度,以及台风、风暴潮和赤潮等主要致灾因子及灾害损失的变化。结果表明,近40年来,我国沿海海平面和海表温度显著上升,上升速率分别为3.3 mm/a和0.016°C/a,高于全球平均和我国的历史变化水平,2017年中国沿海的海表温度达到了1960年有记录以来的最高值,并且自2000年以来,超强台风、风暴潮和赤潮等致灾事件的发生频次呈显著增加趋势;气候变化下,受关键海洋环境要素变迁和超强台风、风暴潮等极端事件的影响,我国沿海地区暴露度明显加大。随着我国海洋防灾减灾水平的提高,近30年来海洋灾害损失出现下降趋势。值得指出的是,每年各类海洋灾害总损失仍高达百亿元量级(年均直接经济损失约120亿元),其中,2005年总损失达到最高值,约332亿元,这与致灾事件的强度以及各致灾事件、灾种的叠加放大效应有密切关系。本文进一步从气候变化综合风险理论角度出发,结合海岸带及沿海地区致灾因子危险性、承灾体暴露度和脆弱性及其相互作用关系,分析了气候变化背景下我国沿海地区海洋灾害风险的特征,探讨了有关海洋灾害的监测、预测预警和风险治理能力建设等若干科学问题,以期为我国沿海地区社会经济的可持续发展提供科学参考。