奉节县曾家棚滑坡时空差异性变形特征与成因机制分析

研究库水位波动和降雨影响下滑坡的位移变形特征并分析其破坏机制，对了解三峡库区滑坡的演化过程具有重要意义。以奉节曾家棚滑坡为例，基于GPS地表监测位移分析了滑坡在不同特征库水位运行阶段的变化规律，结合灰色关联度模型确定了滑坡不同部位的变形在不同阶段的主要控制因素，借助GEO-Studio软件模拟了曾家棚滑坡在历史降雨和库水位波动耦合作用下的稳定性变化，并与定量分析结果进行了交叉检验。结果表明:曾家棚滑坡的运动状态随时间变化，从缓慢蠕变状态进入阶跃变形状态。平面上，中东部坡体与西部坡体相比，运动更加强烈；剖面上，前缘变形早且变形量大。曾家棚滑坡变形失稳过程为初期蓄水启动了曾家棚古滑坡，前缘首先发生变形；降雨作为中后期主控因素，和库水位波动联合作用共同诱发了滑坡多次阶跃变形，使滑坡前中后部形成贯通裂缝；最终由二十年一遇的暴雨诱发滑坡发生整体破坏。      

基于滑体渗透性与库水变动的滑坡变形滞后规律研究

三峡水库运行过程中库岸滑坡的变形演化往往滞后于库水位的变化, 表现出时间滞后效应, 而且随渗透系数和库水位波动速率的不同, 滞后效应亦不同。以三峡库区白家包滑坡为例, 通过现场调查、监测数据分析以及数值模拟的方法, 研究了滑坡在不同渗透系数k和不同库水位下降速率v条件下的变形滞后时间变化规律。研究表明: 滑体渗透系数一定时, 库水位下降速率越大, 地下水滞后越明显; 库水位下降速率一定时, 滑体渗透系数越大, 地下水下降越快。当滑体渗透系数一定时, 库水位下降速率越大, 滑坡的变形滞后时间越短; 滑体渗透系数k=0.85 m/d时不同库水位下降速率作用下滑坡的变形滞后时间为3.74~9 d, 当0.47＜v/k＜1.18时, 0.24＜相对变形滞后时间＜1;当1.18＜v/k＜2.38时, 0＜相对变形滞后时间＜0.24。当库水位下降速率一定时, 滑体渗透系数越大, 滑坡变形滞后时间越短, 不同库水位下降速率下滑坡变形滞后时间随渗透系数的变化规律大致相同; 库水位下降速率v=1.8 m/d时不同滑体渗透系数下滑坡的变形滞后时间为1.7~8 d, 当0.52＜v/k＜0.84时, 0＜相对变形滞后时间＜0.16;当0.84＜v/k＜2.12时, 0.16＜相对变形滞后时间＜0.43;当2.12＜v/k＜9时, 0.43＜相对变形滞后时间＜1。研究成果对水库滑坡预测预警具有较强的应用价值。      

基于物理模型试验的多层滑带滑坡变形演化特征

滑坡变形演化特征一直是滑坡灾害预测与防治领域急需解决的关键问题,但对于多层滑带滑坡的变形演化特征却少有研究。以物理模型试验为手段建立了三层滑带滑坡物理试验模型,完成了多层滑带滑坡变形演化全过程的模拟。基于PIV技术获取坡表位移数据,通过柔性测斜仪监测滑坡深部位移,同时布设土压力盒获取滑坡内部土压力的变化情况,实现了多层滑带滑坡演化过程多参量数据分析。试验结果表明,多层滑带滑坡破坏过程可分为初始、等速、加速和破坏4个阶段。不同破坏阶段滑坡的主要变形区域不同,下层滑体受到上层滑体牵引作用,在重力和推力作用下滑坡变形逐渐向浅层发展。变形过程中滑坡应力逐渐向滑带集中,滑坡推力沿埋深方向呈多级梯形分布。加速变形阶段滑带处应力迅速增大,滑坡体内产生多层应力集中带,滑带位置推力变化与滑坡位移显著相关。     

顾及降雨及库水位因素的滑坡时滞分析与预测——以三峡库区新铺滑坡为例

降雨及库水位涨落是引起库岸滑坡形变失稳的主要诱发因素,但滑坡位移速率对此类诱发因素的响应具有一定的滞后性,影响人类对滑坡所处运动状态的判断与预测.针对常规预测模型中未考虑时滞效应的问题,利用三峡库区新铺滑坡的GNSS位移监测数据、奉节气象站降雨数据以及三峡库区库水位涨落数据,通过对监测区内9个GNSS监测点的位移速率序...     

三峡库区柑子沟滑坡防治对策

柑子沟滑坡位于香溪河左岸,柑子沟西侧,滑坡体呈缓坡状地貌,主滑方向210°,分布有多级台地。滑体发育于谷坡,沿沟谷发育呈长条状,后缘发现有拉张裂缝。滑体的周界清晰,为基岩斜坡。滑体中部有复建公路通过,人为改造作用强烈。该滑坡坡体结构较完整,坡度在29°～31°之间。滑坡后缘壁基岩出露,为粉砂岩中等风化,稳定性较好,滑坡后缘及周围无新的堆积物加载来源;滑坡无整体变形迹象。[第一段]     

紫阳县城滑坡监测及变形规律分析

本文介绍了紫阳县城滑坡监测工作的技术方案及数据处理方法和结果。通过各种方案的对比分析．对监测网的各种技术方案的选取提供了依据．文中所提出的依据稳健估计原理、利用Ｓ变换解决参考基准的定位问题．是基准网非稳定情况下进行监测数据处理的成功方法，颇有借鉴意义。     

基于坡表变形分析与降雨响应模拟的立节北山滑坡运动特征

速度倒数法(INV)是基于坡表变形特征的滑坡启滑预测工具,其与滑坡内部多物理场演化的关系仍需进一步明晰。开展了甘肃省舟曲县立节北山滑坡的勘察与坡表变形监测,采用基于速度倒数法、速度阈值法、以非饱和土理论为基础的边坡降雨响应模拟3种方法,对该滑坡的运动特征与失稳的内在机制展开了研究。研究结果表明：边坡变形速度倒数-时间曲线有明显的加速起始点。速度倒数在2021年6月3日达到最低值后,进入约60 d的平稳期,在9月20日突然加速,并在20 d内速度达到200 mm/d以上,变形不再收敛。基于速度倒数法得到的滑坡生命周期结束点,与实际的失稳点相差8 d,提前约130 d对该突发性滑坡进行了预报。根据全过程速度时程曲线,存在20,60,100 mm/d的多级速度阈值。边坡应力场、变形场、渗流场的数值模拟结果显示,变形时程曲线的拐点与降雨强度的增加相关,累计降雨量与安全系数呈指数负相关。数值模拟得到的累计变形为2 250 mm,变形速度为10～35 mm/d,速度倒数为0.03～0.12 d/mm,与实际监测数据接近。综上所述,速度倒数法对立节北山滑坡的生命周期进行了有效预测,基于速度的预警阈值...     

新铺下二台滑坡变形机制及中长期预报模型

以奉节新铺下二台滑坡为例,基于GPS位移监测数据、裂缝数据、降雨量及库水位等多源数据,总结分析了大型古滑坡的复活规律,引入滑坡中长期预报模型,实现了以季度或月份为时间单位的跨水文年滑坡位移预测,并通过岩土体蠕变压缩模型,验证了推移式滑坡后缘裂缝形成机理。结果表明：(1)降雨是下二台滑坡变形的主导因素,滑坡变形使得滑体产生裂缝并成为降雨入渗通道,加剧了岩体破碎与软弱层软化,降低了滑坡稳定性,集中持续降雨可使滑坡失稳破坏;(2)通过模型预测值与地表监测数据的比较,将年降雨量作为滑坡中长期预报模型中的主控因素具有实际可操作性且有助于提高滑坡中长预报精度;(3)推移式滑坡后缘裂缝由滑坡推移式位移和岩土体压缩形成,引入蠕变压缩模型计算的裂缝宽度并和监测数据的比较说明,蠕变压缩模型非常适合该类边坡,同时应用岩土体蠕变压缩模型反推得到岩土体平均变形模量,判断岩体破碎程度,可以为滑坡稳定性分析及后续工程治理提供参考。     

三峡库区矿务局滑坡稳定性评价

依据三峡库区滑坡勘察设计的有关规范、规程的要求,结合本次勘察的实际情况,对该滑坡的稳定性进行计算并进而进行稳定性的综合评价。     

三峡库区马家屋场-后坪滑坡成因及稳定性分析

详细介绍了三峡库区马家屋场-后坪滑坡体的特征，收集了大量软弱结构面资料，研究了各软弱结构面的组合关系，运用优势面理论，合理解释了该滑坡体的成因。采用剩余推力法，对滑坡体在各种不同工况下的稳定性作了科学分析，并对滑坡体在三蛱水库蓄水以后的稳定性作了合理预测，结果表明，滑坡体在目前状态下基本稳定，三峡水库蓄水以后，将对滑坡体稳定性产生较大影响，极有可能导致滑坡体失稳。     

Deformation characteristics and thresholds of the Tanjiawan landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area,China

Since the first impoundment of the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR) in China in 2003, more than 5000 landslides including potential landslides were identified. In this paper, a deep-seated active landslide in TGR area was analyzed. Fourteen years’ monitoring data and field investigations from 2006 to 2020 were used to analyze the deformation characteristics, influencing factors, and meteohydrological thresholds. The landslide showed a none-overall periodic movement pattern featuring acceleration duri...     

Displacement characteristics and prediction of Baishuihe landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir

In order to reach the designated final water level of 175 m, there were three impoundment stages in the Three Gorges Reservoir, with water levels of 135 m, 156 m and 175 m. Baishuihe landslide in the Reservoir was chosen to analyze its displacement characteristics and displacement variability at the different stages. Based on monitoring data, the landslide displacement was mainly influenced by rainfall and drawdown of the reservoir water level. However, the magnitude of the rise and drawdown of the water level after the reservoir water level reached 175 m did not accelerate landslide displacement. The prediction of landslide displacement for active landslides is very important for landslide risk management. The time series of cumulative displacement was divided into a trend term and a periodic term using the Hodrick-Prescott(HP) filter method. The polynomial model was used to predict the trend term. The extreme learning machine(ELM) and least squares support vector machine(LS-SVM) were chosen to predict theperiodic term. In the prediction model for the periodic term, input variables based on the effects of rainfall and reservoir water level in landslide displacement were selected using grey relational analysis. Based on the results, the prediction precision of ELM is better than that of LS-SVM for predicting landslide displacement. The method for predicting landslide displacement could be applied by relevant authorities in making landslide emergency plans in the future.     

不同环剪条件下三峡库区童家坪滑坡滑带土强度特性

研究不同环剪条件下库岸堆积层滑坡滑带土强度特性对滑坡稳定性评价具有重要意义。针对目前在库岸堆积层滑坡滑带土力学特性方面研究薄弱的问题, 以三峡库区童家坪滑坡滑带土为研究对象, 采用ARS-E2环剪仪开展了不同剪切速率下的剪切试验, 研究了等速剪切、加速剪切以及减速剪切作用下滑带土强度变化特征。试验结果表明: 滑带土试样在恒定的低速剪切条件下更容易得到稳定的残余强度, 并且达到峰值强度后易出现"应变软化"现象; 在相同剪切应力条件下, 滑带土加速环剪和减速环剪的剪应力变化趋势基本一致, 与法向应力均呈正相关关系; 剪切速率的变化会显著影响滑带土峰值黏聚力的大小。研究成果揭示了不同环剪条件下滑带土力学特性, 可以为揭示库岸堆积层滑坡变形破坏的力学机制提供理论依据。      

Non-point-source nitrogen and phosphorus loadings from a small watershed in the Three Gorges Reservoir area

Non-point-source pollution has become a major threat to the water quality of the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR);however,nutrient loadings from terrestrial sources are unclear due to a lack of in situ monitoring.A representative small watershed in the central part of the TGR area was selected to monitor the loss of nitrogen(N) and phosphorous(P) continuously along with the runoff from 2007 through 2009 to understand the exact sources and loadings.Results show that the non-point-source nitrogen and phosphorus comes mainly from the storm runoff from residential areas,citrus orchards and sloping croplands,which contributes up to 76% of the loadings in this watershed.Thus,a crucial measure for controlling non-point-source pollution is to intercept storm runoff from the three sources.Paddy fields provide a sink for non-point-source N and P by intercepting the runoff and sediment along with their different forms of nitrogen and phosphorus.The N and P removal efficiency by paddy fields from residential areas is within the range of 56% to 98%.Paddy fields are an important land-use option for reducing the non-point-source loading of N and P in the TGR area.     

基于滑带完整性指标的三峡库区堆积层滑坡失稳破坏判据

滑坡稳定性评价是滑坡防治中关键问题之一,滑坡失稳破坏判据研究可为滑坡稳定性评价提供支持。为了提高滑坡稳定性评价的精度,以滑坡深部位移监测数据为基础的滑坡失稳破坏判据不失为一种有效方法。基于滑坡深部位移监测数据,引入滑带完整性指标,推导得到了滑带完整性指标与滑坡抗剪强度参数之间呈正比例关系;运用滑坡稳定性计算方法和三峡库区堆积层滑坡简化模型,获得了滑带完整性指标与滑坡的稳定性系数之间呈正比例关系。建立了考虑滑带完整性指标的三峡库区堆积层滑坡失稳破坏判据,即：当滑坡滑带土完整性指标大于滑坡滑带土完整性指标的临界值时,滑坡处于稳定状态;当滑坡滑带土完整性指标小于滑坡滑带土完整性指标的临界值时,滑坡发生失稳破坏。以三峡库区典型堆积层滑坡——五尺坝滑坡为例,通过实例分析发现该判据具备可靠性,对堆积层滑坡适用性好。研究成果表明,滑带完整性指标失稳破坏判据可以用于评价滑坡的稳定状态,为滑坡失稳破坏判据研究提供了一种新思路。     

Comparison of the rise of water level in the typical catchments,Three Gorges Reservoir area

Water level is an important index for studying hydrologic processes. Water level rise processes were studied in three catchments (catchment I, II, III in Chen Jiagou watershed in the Three Gorge Reservoir Area) with different areas to provide useful information to inform data extension from a gauged-catchment to an ungauged catchment. The results showed that there are seasonal changes in the dominant driving mode of the rise of the water level. The rise of the water level in March is likely mainly driven by the mode of stored-full runoff, and in September or October, it is mainly driven by Horton-flow. The correlation coefficients of all indexes were significant among the three catchments, suggesting that these catchments have similarities and that water level data extension is likely to be completed successfully between the large catchment (III-Catchment) and the small catchment (I-Catchment). It was confirmed that there is good similarity between the 0.6 km2 and 6 km2 catchments, and the data correlation is good between the catchments with the area differences in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. In addition, the rise processes of the water level in the catchments were not only different under the same rain conditions, but this difference could also change with the rain condition.     

EXPLORATION ON METHOD OF AUTO-CLASSIFICATION FOR MAIN GROUND OBJECTS OF THREE GORGES RESERVOIR AREA

1IN TR O DU C TIO N With thedevelopmentof remotesensingtechnolog,y thestudyandapplicatioonftheautomaticclassifitciaon method usingcomputerhad achievedsatisfyi ndgevel- opment. From spectrumstatisticcallassificatitoonthe neural network classificatimoenthod…     

三峡库区大型-特大型层状岩质滑坡成因模式及地质特征分析

三峡库区大型-特大型滑坡发育，尤以层状岩质滑坡的危害性大。因库区各段地质条件差异使得滑坡成因模式各不相同，这影响了滑坡的运动形式和岩土体解体程度。在收集三峡库区51处典型的大型-特大型层状岩质滑坡调查资料基础上，根据堆积岩体结构和区段地质条件反推该段滑坡破坏成因模式，而不同成因模式下的滑坡坡体渗透性不同，分析已有滑坡对库水位变动存在的复活响应差异，据此得出以下结论:①在成因模式上，除顺层滑移型滑坡在库区中均有分布外，从库首至库尾随着岩层倾角的逐渐减缓，滑坡成因模式从崩塌型、反倾弯曲型逐渐过渡到平推式；②在坡体渗透性上，成因模式造成的岩体结构变化与坡体中的泥质含量共同作用，导致顺层滑移型滑坡前后缘渗透性存在较大差异；反倾型滑坡渗透性则整体变化较小；③在库水位变动影响下，不同坡体渗透性与滑面形态共同决定了滑坡的复活变形差异。      

Spatial prediction of landslide for Badong County in the Three Gorges reservoir district

By using the landslide risk evaluating model and the advantages of GIS technology in image processing and space analysis, the relative landslide hazard and risk evaluating system of the new county site of Badong is built up. The system is mainly consisted of four subsystems: Information management subsystem, hazard assessment subsystem, vulnerability evaluation subsystem and risk prediction subsystem. In the system, landslide hazard assessment, vulnerability evaluation, risk predictions are carried out automatically based on irregular units. At last the landslide hazard and risk map of the study area is compiled. During the whole procedure, Matter-Element Model, Artificial Neural Network, and Information Model are used as assessment models. This system provides an effective way for the landslide hazard information management and risk prediction of each district in the Reservoir of Three Gorge Project. The result of the assessment can be a gist and ensure for the land planning and the emigration project in Badong.     

Landslide stability for Shuitianba in the Three Gorges area

According to the data of preliminary survey, the authors established a landslide geological model,on the basis of analyses on the sensitivity of landslide, tried to simulate and calculate the landslide stability of Shuitianba with the method of transfer coefficient when it is under different strength parameters, and study the landslide mechanism. The results show that it is sensitive to the effects of shear strength parameters of sliding zone and groundwater level on landslide stability safety coefficient, which provides reliable basis for calculation of landslide stability.