山地冰川冰湖变化及其溃决洪水遥感监测研究进展

冰湖作为冰川融水主要储蓄载体,能在一定程度延缓区域冰川淡水资源流失,但也为冰湖溃决洪水(Glacial Lake Outburst Floods, GLOFs)、滑坡、泥石流等山地灾害发生提供了孕灾场所,是众多山地冰川灾害链的重要环节。升温、极端气候变化扰动下,冰川物质亏损/减薄速率进一步加剧,冰湖形态变化速率加快、GLOFs发生频次与规模有所提升、灾害影响效应愈发显著,对高海拔山地冰川区下游居民生命财产和基础设施安全带来潜在风险。鉴于此,本文以冰湖与GLOFs研究为主题,首先,通过冰湖研究文献计量分析确定了近些年研究热点专题;其次,围绕山地冰川冰湖与GLOFs研究的3个主要方向：冰湖与GLOFs遥感监测、冰湖时空演化与冰川变化分析及未来潜在冰湖探测、冰湖灾害风险评估与GLOFs案例研究,遴选10项重要专题内容,分门别类、系统梳理总结、剖析了国内外研究进展,阐述了当下研究存在不足;最后,针对所选专题结合技术发展趋势与研究热点问题,围绕冰湖形态信息与GLOFs智能提取、冰川-冰(前/面)湖系统演化及其气候变化响应关系、冰湖监测预警与灾害防治内容,对未来研究做了一定展望,以期为山地冰川冰湖...     

1972-2009年念青唐古拉山西段冰湖分布及其变化特征

冰湖是研究气候变化的重要指标之一,了解冰湖分布和变化的特征,对认识冰川与气候之间关系和冰湖溃决灾害评估
有着重要意义。运用遥感资料监测念青唐古拉山西段近40a来的冰湖分布及其变化,并结合DEM 研究冰湖垂直分布的变化,探
讨影响冰湖分布和变化的可能因素。研究结果表明:(1)研究区冰湖数量和面积近年来都呈迅速增加趋势,冰湖增加150个,冰湖
面积增加4.384km2。气温升高、冰川融水增加是冰湖增多和面积增大的主要原因;(2)冰湖垂直分布变化明显,新增冰湖个数峰
值位于海拔5500~5700m,占新增冰湖总数的61%;新增冰湖面积峰值在海拔5400~5700m,占新增湖总面积的44%;冰湖面
积在大部分海拔高度上均呈扩张态势;(3)海拔高于5400m的区域,1991-2009年新增的冰湖数量远多于1972-1991年。冰湖
在高海拔区分布的变化对念青唐古拉山区冰川消融以及气候垂直变化具有一定的指示作用。      

青藏高原植被变化特征及其对气候变化的影响

利用1982-2001年美国国家航天航空局(NASA)的归一化植被指数(NDVI)资料以及55个青藏高原地区气象台站实测的最高气温、最低气温、平均气温和降水资料,初步分析了青藏高原地区各季节植被变化特征及其对气候变化的影响,通过分析发现,各季节青藏高原地区NDVI均以增长为主.特别是高原南部、北部和西部等地区增加明显,高原中东部地区植被有所减少.通过相关分析和台站概率相关分析发现,高原冬季和春季NDVI与后期春季和夏季的最高气温、最低气温、平均气温和降水有较好的正相关关系,但有的表现在相关系数比较显著,有的表现为概率相关较明显.     

黄河三角洲地区植被变化及其对气温的响应特征

监测植被动态并确定其与气温要素的关系,有助于充分理解区域生态系统对气候变化的响应。目前对黄河三角洲地区的植被研究多以年际展开,分析植被月度变化的研究较少。针对此问题,利用趋势分析和相关分析方法对黄河三角洲地区植被长势对气温月度变化的响应机制进行研究。并对2000—2014年内共13个时段数据进行对比分析,得到研究区域内植被特征变化及其对气温的响应特征,为黄河三角洲生态环境发展及经济政策制定提供一定的参考。     

近47年白银市气候变化及其对农业生产的影响分析

利用白银市4个代表站逐日平均气温、逐日地面最低温度，分别得到≥0℃初终日期、初终霜冻日期以及利用逐月平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温和逐月降水资料，对白银市近47a的气候变化特征进行分析，同时分析了气候变化对农业生产的影响，为充分利用变化了的农业气候资源，减少不利因素带来的影响提出了对策和建议。     

青藏高原月NDVI时空动态变化及其对气候变化的 响应

青藏高原脆弱的高寒植被对外界干扰十分敏感,使其成为研究植被对气候变化响应的理想区域之一。青藏高原气候变化剧烈,在较短的合成时间研究气候变化对植被的影响十分必要。因此,本文利用GIMMS NDVI时间序列数据集,研究了1982-2012年青藏高原生长季月尺度植被生长的时空动态变化,探讨了其与气温、降水量和日照时数等气候因子的响应关系。结果表明：在区域尺度上,除8月外,其他各月份植被均呈增加趋势,显著增加多发生在4-7月和9月;大部分月份的NDVI增加速率随着时段的延长显著减小,表明NDVI增加趋势放缓;在像元尺度上,月NDVI显著变化的区域多呈增加趋势,但显著减少范围的扩张多快于显著增加。4月和7月植被生长主要是受气温和日照时数共同作用,6月和9月受气温的控制,而8月则主要受降水量的影响。长时间序列NDVI数据集的出现为采用嵌套时段研究植被生长变化趋势奠定了前提,而植被活动变化趋势的持续性则有助于形象表征植被活动变化过程、深入理解植被对气候变化的响应和预测植被未来生长变化趋势。由此推测,青藏高原月NDVI未来增加趋势总体上趋于缓和,但在像元尺度显著变化的区域趋于增加。     

广东汕尾近40年以来气温的变化特征

根据汕尾地区汕尾、海丰、陆丰站1960—1999年的气温序列资料,采用线性趋势、累积距平、小波分析以及Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法对汕尾地区气温变化特征进行了分析,结果表明：40年来汕尾地区存在暖-冷-暖3个气候变化阶段。年季平均气温均呈上升趋势,尤其在1980年代中期以后升温更为明显;四季升温率以冬季最为显著。在不同冷、暖阶段,冷、暖年（季）出现的年数差异很大,其中异常冷年均出现在1980年前,异常暖年均出现在1990年后。年平均最高气温与最低气温同年平均气温一样均呈升高趋势。但不同站点的气温变化仍有一定差异。年平均气温汕尾站存在2—3a、6—7a、准12a周期,海丰站存在准7a与14—16a周期,陆丰存在准1．5a、准2．5a、5—7a、准16a周期,MK检验发现汕尾平均气温在1998年发生突变,其他两站的突变发生在1997年。     

海塔盆地中部断陷带反转构造特征及其对油气的控制

为研究海塔盆地中部断陷带反转构造的类型、分布、形成机制、与油气藏的关系及成藏模式和控藏特征,分析地震、油气藏开发及地球化学等资料.结果表明:伊敏组晚期,海塔盆地中部断陷带在近东西向压扭应力场作用下发生大规模反转,形成断层型、褶皱型和混合型3类5个亚类反转构造,并与上部含油气系统的大二段次生油气藏具有良好耦合关系.大二段次生油气藏为反转期原生油气藏沿主干反转断裂向上调整形成,以南一中段及下段烃源岩形成的原生油气藏为源,以大二段砂岩为储层,以伊敏组泥岩为盖层,以主反转断层为疏导为成藏模式;该次生油气藏的形成与反转程度密切相关,主要形成于反转程度较弱的塔南凹陷隐伏断展型反转构造发育的区域,北北东向的隐伏断展型反转构造圈闭是寻找该类次生油气藏的首选目标.     

青藏高原-热带印度洋地区大气热源的时空变化特征

为了寻求青藏高原一热带印度洋地区大气热源空间变化的敏感区,进一步深入研究季风的形成、变异和预测,利用NCEP1979-2008年的再分析资料计算分析了青藏高原一热带印度洋地区30年来不同季节大气热源分布的气候特征,并且利用经验正交函数分解研究了该区大气热源在夏、冬季的时空变化特征。结论如下：春季大气热源有明显的经向差异;夏季的热源明显比春季的热源强度强,范围广,热源最强中心在孟加拉湾北部大陆边缘;秋季热源区域明显南缩,热源强度较夏季明显减弱;冬季大气热源呈西西南一东东北方向分布,大气热源位置继续南移。对于夏季,前3个模态分别反映了青藏高原一热带印度洋地区大气热源的纬向差异型、经向差异型、西北一东南分布型。对于冬季,前3个模态分别反映了青藏高原一热带印度洋地区大气热源的经向差异主导型、经向差异型、纬向差异型。     

“一带一路”沿线国家农田生态系统脆弱性及其对气候变化的响应

全球气候变化背景下,“一带一路”沿线国家农田生态系统脆弱性直接影响着所在国家或地区的粮食安全问题。本文基于农田生态系统总初级生产力（GPP）,使用定量的脆弱性评价方法,系统分析了“一带一路”沿线国家农田生态系统脆弱性的空间分布特征及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明：① “一带一路”沿线国家农田生态系统脆弱性普遍处于较高的程度,77.1%的农田生态系统表现为中度和重度脆弱,且农田生态系统脆弱性呈现出明显的空间分异格局,中亚、西亚和蒙古脆弱性较高,中国、东南亚和南亚的脆弱性处于中等水平,俄罗斯、独联体和中东欧脆弱性较低;② 1980年以来“一带一路”沿线农田生态系统暖干化趋势明显,暖干化区域面积占64.06%,暖干化是“一带一路”沿线国家农田生态系统气候变化的主要特征;③ 农田生态系统脆弱性由低到高的气候变化区依次为暖湿区、冷湿区、暖干区、冷干区。暖湿区农田生态系统脆弱性最低,而冷干区农田生态系统脆弱性最高。气温和降水的变化及其耦合关系控制着农田生态系统脆弱性程度,其中降水变化趋势是影响农田生态系统脆弱性的重要因子。本研究为“一带一路”沿线国家应对和解决粮食安全问题,促进农业可持续发展,为加强各国之间的农业国际合作提供科学依据和有益参考。     

Interannual and seasonal changes in the ice cover of glacial lakes in the Snowy Mountains of Australia

Seasonal ice cover is uncommon on Australian lakes. In the Snowy Mountains, there are five natural, seasonally ice-covered lakes including Lake Cootapatamba, the highest lake in Australia. Blue Lake is the only one of the five lakes with sufficient volume to be relatively independent of short-term changes in ambient temperature, and therefore is the lake most likely to be of use in tracking long-term regional climate change. Ice forms on Blue Lake near the winter solstice and ice-breakup occurs from late September to November. Timing of breakup is related to spring temperature and, as such, mirrors the timing of general snow thaw in the mountains. The existence of historic photographs taken of the lake at about the time of ice breakup allows for the possibility of reconstructing a history of alpine climate and in 1905 ice breakup was probably as late as mid-December.     

Mapping of moraine dammed glacial lakes and assessment of their areal changes in the central and eastern Himalayas using satellite data

The relatively rapid recession of glaciers in the Himalayas and formation of moraine dammed glacial lakes(MDGLs) in the recent past have increased the risk of glacier lake outburst floods(GLOF) in the countries of Nepal and Bhutan and in the mountainous territory of Sikkim in India. As a product of climate change and global warming, such a risk has not only raised the level of threats to the habitation and infrastructure of the region, but has also contributed to the worsening of the balance of the unique ecosystem that exists in this domain that sustains several of the highest mountain peaks of the world. This study attempts to present an up to date mapping of the MDGLs in the central and eastern Himalayan regions using remote sensing data, with an objective to analyse their surface area variations with time from 1990 through 2015, disaggregated over six episodes. The study also includes the evaluation for susceptibility of MDGLs to GLOF with the least criteria decision analysis(LCDA). Forty two major MDGLs, each having a lake surface area greater than 0.2 km2, that were identified in the Himalayan ranges of Nepal, Bhutan, and Sikkim, have been categorized according to their surface area expansion rates in space and time. The lakes have been identified as located within the elevation range of 3800 m and6800 m above mean sea level(a msl). With a total surface area of 37.9 km2, these MDGLs as a whole were observed to have expanded by an astonishing 43.6% in area over the 25 year period of this study. A factor is introduced to numerically sort the lakes in terms of their relative yearly expansion rates, based on their interpretation of their surface area extents from satellite imageries. Verification of predicted GLOF events in the past using this factor with the limited field data as reported in literature indicates that the present analysis may be considered a sufficiently reliable and rapid technique for assessing the potential bursting susceptibility of the MDGLs. The analysis also indicates that, as of now, there are eight MDGLs in the region which appear to be in highly vulnerable states and have high chances in causing potential GLOF events anytime in the recent future.     

Alpine taxa exhibit differing responses to climate warming in the Snowy Mountains of Australia

The phenologies of plants and animals in snow-covered landscapes are expected to accelerate with global warming. However, there are few studies that have examined a range of unrelated taxa in alpine environments to determine whether there is commonality in the proximate causes, synchrony in timing, or the direction of any changes. Records for five alpine animal species and two alpine plant species, chosen primarily for their visibility, were examined to determine their temporal response to regional climate warming. Over the 30-year period studied, they showed an array of different phenological responses. Plant flowering appeared linked to date of snow melt, whereas animal responses varied. Although having accelerated phenologies, two migratory bird species exhibited contrary changes; one to low-altitude warming regardless of snow conditions in the alpine zone (flame robin) and the other to state of the snowpack regardless of low-altitude temperatures (Richard’s pipit). By contrast, the migratory bogong moth arrived significantly later over the years with no apparent explanatory climatic cause. Although bogong moths are not responding to earlier snow melt, insectivorous predators on the ground are. This could lead to a serious mismatch in timing at different trophic levels, putting pressure on endangered vertebrates. Emergence of locally wintering insect species, March flies and Macleay’s swallowtails, were not significantly related to measured climatic parameters over the study period. A consequence of the disparate responses to climate warming recorded here is the questionable value of ‘indicator species’ to examine the impact of climate warming on alpine ecosystems.     

Decadal glacial lake changes in the Koshi basin,central Himalaya,from 1977 to 2010, derived from Landsat satellite images

Changes in glacial lakes and the consequences of these changes, particularly on the development of water resources and management of glacial lake outburst flood(GLOF) risk, has become one of the challenges in the sustainable development of high mountain areas in the context of global warming. This paper presents the findings of a study on the distribution of, and area changes in, glacial lakes in the Koshi basin in the central Himalayas.Data on the number of glacial lakes and their area was generated for the years 1977, 1990, 2000, and 2010 using Landsat satellite images. According to the glacial lake inventory in 2010, there were a total of 2168 glacial lakes with a total area of 127.61 km~2 and average size of 0.06 km~2 in the Koshi basin. Of these,47% were moraine dammed lakes, 34.8% bedrock dammed lakes and 17.7% ice dammed lakes. The number of glacial lakes increased consistently over the study period from 1160 in 1977 to 2168 in 2010, an overall growth rate of 86.9%. The area of glacial lakes also increased from 94.44 km~2 in 1977 to 127.61 km~2 in 2010, a growth rate of 35.1%. A large number of glacial lakes in the inventory are small in size(≤ 0.1km~2). End moraine dammed lakes with area greater than 0.1 km~2 were selected to analyze the change characteristics of glacial lakes in the basin. The results show that, in 2010, there were 129 lakes greater than 0.1 km~2 in area; these lakes had a total area of 42.92km~2 in 1997, increasing to 63.28 km~2 in 2010. The distribution of lakes on the north side of the Himalayas(in China) was three times higher than on the south side of the Himalayas(in Nepal).Comparing the mean growth rate in area for the 33 year study period(1977-2010), the growth rate on the north side was found to be a little slower than that on the south side. A total of 42 glacial lakes with an area greater than 0.2 km~2 are rapidly growing between 1977 and 2010 in the Koshi basin, which need to be paid more attention to monitoring in the future and to identify how critical they are in terms of GLOF.     

Response of snow hydrological processes to a changing climate during 1961 to 2016 in the headwater of Irtysh River Basin,Chinese Altai Mountains

With changing climatic conditions and snow cover regime, regional hydrological cycle for a snowy basin will change and further available surface water resources will be redistributed. Assessing snow meltwater effect on runoff is the key to water safety, under climate warming and fast social-economic developing status. In this study, stable isotopic technology was utilized to analyze the snow meltwater effect on regional hydrological processes, and to declare the response of snow hydrology to climate change and snow cover regime, together with longterm meteorological and hydrological observations, in the headwater of Irtysh River, Chinese Altai Mountains during 1961-2015. The average δ~(18) O values of rainfall, snowfall, meltwater, groundwater and river water for 2014–2015 hydrological year were-10.9‰,-22.3‰,-21.7‰,-15.7‰ and-16.0‰, respectively.The results from stable isotopes, snow melting observation and remote sensing indicated that the meltwater effect on hydrological processes in Kayiertesi River Basin mainly occurred during snowmelt supplying period from April to June. The contribution of meltwater to runoff reached 58.1% during this period, but rainfall, meltwater and groundwater supplied 49.1%, 36.9% and 14.0% of water resource to annual runoff, respectively. With rising air temperature and increasing snowfall in cold season, the snow water equivalent(SWE) had an increasing trend but the snow cover duration declined by about one month including 13-day delay of the first day and 17-day advancement of the end day during 1961–2016. Increase in SWE provided more available water resource. However, variations in snow cover timing had resulted in redistribution of surface water resource, represented by an increase of discharge percentage in April and May, and a decline in Juneand July. This trend of snow hydrology will render a deficit of water resource in June and July when the water resource demand is high for agricultural irrigation and industrial manufacture.     

再论贺兰山南部北西向构造成因

贺兰山南部分布着多个方向的构造，其中最明显地是一系列的北西向构造，目前这些构造的相互关系以及形成机制还没有得到合理地解释，争论很大；野外构造研究表明，贺兰山南部北西向构造的形成与青铜峡一固原断裂活动有密切的关系，是该断裂由走滑运动向挤压运动转换时的派生构造；从另一角度也说明，在中新生代由青铜峡一固原断裂所限定的地块(卫宁北山)向东运动，而这些北西向构造的形成主要发生在新生代。由于卫宁北山向东运动的动力来源于青藏高原，因此，贺兰山南部北西向构造的形成与青藏高原的演化有密切的联系。所以。作为中国重要地质界限的南北向构造——贺兰山已经被青藏高原的构造活动所叠加。     

Phenology of different types of vegetation and their response to climate change in the Qilian Mountains,China

The Qilian Mountains(QM) possess a delicate vegetation ecosystem, amplifying the evident response of vegetation phenology to climate change. The relationship between changes in vegetation growth and climate remains complex. To this end, we used MODIS NDVI data to extract the phenological parameters of the vegetation including meadow(MDW), grassland(GSD), and alpine vegetation(ALV) in the QM from 2002 to 2021. Then, we employed path analysis to reveal the direct and indirect impacts of seasonal c...     

Phylogenetic conservatism in threatened species responses to climate change differs between functional types in the Gongga Mountains of China

Climate change has become one of the most critical threats to global biodiversity. However, whether phylogenetically related species respond to climate change in similar ways remains controversial. The answer to this question is crucial for understanding the impacts of climate change and the conservation on the tree of life. By integrating species distribution models with a molecular phylogeny of 50 threatened plant species from one of the global biodiversity hotspots, Gongga Mountains(Mt. Gongg...     

1993-2017年南海中尺度涡特征分析

【目的】研究1993-2017年南海中尺度涡的空间分布、季节变化、移动速度等特征。【方法】根据AVISO提供的地转流数据,应用Nencioli等人提出的涡旋识别算法。【结果】南海中尺度涡主要分布在南海东北部和越南东部海域,冬(夏)季有利于(反)气旋涡产生,中尺度涡以2.0～9.0cm/s的速度向西传播。【结论】南海气旋涡与反气旋逐年生成个数与ENSO事件相关,在1993-2007年期间,强(温和)厄尔尼诺年气旋涡生成数大于反气旋,弱(温和)拉尼娜年反气旋生成数大于气旋涡。2008-2017年,强厄尔尼诺年气旋涡生成数大于反气旋,温和拉尼娜年反气旋生成数小于气旋涡。在涡旋的生命周期内,涡旋半径与移动速度变化趋势相反。复杂海底地形会阻碍涡旋的传播。     

Changes in fish diversity and community structure in the central and southern Yellow Sea from 2003 to 2015

The central and southern Yellow Sea is an important overwintering ground for many fish species in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea. For better understanding the status of the fish community after years of heavy exploitation, variations in fish community structure and diversity were analyzed using data from bottom trawls during 2003–2015. Five fish assemblage indices all showed fluctuations without clear trends from 2003 to 2015, yet there were strong positive and significant correlations(P 0.05) among them. The top-five dominant species accounted for a high weight percentage(49.7%–82.1%) in the annual fish catch. Multivariate analysis showed that two year groups could be pooled for the fish community: Group Ⅰ consisted of the years 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2015, while Group Ⅱ consisted of the years 2003, 2004, 2005, 2009, 2010 and 2014; the groups aggregated with 63.71% similarity, indicating a high level of similarity among all years. The multivariate dispersion values were 1.455 and 0.818 for Groups Ⅰ and Ⅱ, respectively, indicating greater variances in fish assemblage structure in Group Ⅰ than that in Group Ⅱ. Similarity of percentage analysis demonstrated that the average similarities for Group Ⅰ and Group Ⅱ were 71.58% and 67.51%, respectively. Size-spectra analysis revealed no consistent trend in the intercept and slope( P 0.05); there were also no significant differences between the slope of the size-spectra and fishing ef fort. The catch per unit ef fort and mean individual weight analyses of the whole fish assemblage both showed a significantly decreasing trend over time. Overall, the results showed that the fish community structure in the central and southern Yellow Sea was relatively stable from 2003 to 2015 and the study could be used as a reference for supporting ecosystem-based fishery management.