两种海浪模式对一次台风浪过程的模拟分析

以CCMP（Cross—Calibrated,Multi—Platfoml）风场为驱动场,分别驱动目前国际先进的第3代海浪模式ww3（WAVEWATCH—III）、SWAN（Simulating WAves Nearshore）,对2010年9月发生在东中国海的台风“圆规”所致的台风浪进行数值模拟,就台风浪的特征进行分析,并对比分析两个海浪模式的模拟效果。结果表明：1）以CCMP风场分别驱动WW3、SWAN海浪模式,可以较好地模拟发生在东中国海的台风浪,风向与波向保持了大体一致,波高与风速的分布特征保持了很好的一致性;2）综合相关系数、偏差、均方根误差、平均绝对误差来看,两个模式模拟的有效波高（SWH—Significant Wdve Height）都具有较高精度,SWAN模拟的SWH略低于观测值,WW3模拟的SWH与观测值更为接近;3）台风浪可给琉球群岛海域带来5m左右的大浪,台风浪进入东海后,波高、风速都有一定程度的增加,当台风沿西北路径穿越朝鲜半岛时,受到半岛地形的巨大影响,风速和波高都明显降低。     

Numerical Simulation and Analysis of Storm Surges Under Different Extreme Weather Event and Typhoon Experiments in the South Yellow Sea

In this study,a coupled tide-surge-wave model was developed and applied to the South Yellow Sea.The coupled model simulated the evolution of storm surges and waves caused by extreme weather events,such as tropical cyclones,cold waves,extratropical cyclones coupled with a cold wave,and tropical cyclones coupled with a cold wave.The modeled surge level and significant wave height matched the measured data well.Simulation results of the typhoon with different intensities revealed that the radius to the maximum wind speed of a typhoon with 1.5 times wind speed decreased,and its influence range was farther away from the Jiangsu coastal region;moreover,the impact on surge levels was weakened.Thereafter,eight hypothetical typhoons based on Typhoon Chan-hom were designed to investigate the effects of varying typhoon tracks on the extreme value and spatial distribution of storm surges in the offshore area of Jiangsu Province.The typhoon along path 2 mainly affected the Rudong coast,and the topography of the Rudong coast was conducive to the increase in surge level.Therefore,the typhoon along path 2 induced the largest surge level,which reached up to 2.91 m in the radial sand ridge area.The maximum surge levels in the Haizhou Bay area and the middle straight coastline area reached up to 2.37 and 2.08 m,respectively.In terms of typhoons active in offshore areas,the radial sand ridge area was most likely to be threatened by typhoon-induced storm surges.     

Numerical simulation and preliminary analysis of typhoon waves during three typhoons in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea

In this study, typhoon waves generated during three typhoons(Damrey(1210), Fung-wong(1416), and Chan-hom(1509)) in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea were simulated in a simulating waves nearshore(SWAN) model, and the wind forcing was constructed by combining reanalyzed wind data with a Holland typhoon wind model. Various parameters, such as the Holland fitting parameter(B) and the maximum wind radius(R), were investigated in sensitivity experiments in the Holland model that affect the wind field construction. Six different formulations were considered and the parameters determined by comparing the simulated wind results with in-situ wind measurements. The key factors affecting wave growth and dissipation processes from deep to shallow waters were studied, including wind input, whitecapping, and bottom friction. Comparison with in-situ wave measurements suggested that the KOMEN scheme(wind input exponential growth and whitecapping energy dissipation) and the JONSWAP scheme(dissipation of bottom friction) resulted in good reproduction of the significant wave height of typhoon waves. A preliminary analysis of the wave characteristics in terms of wind-sea and swell wave revealed that swell waves dominated with the distance of R to the eye of the typhoon, while wind-sea prevailed in the outer region up to six to eight times the R values despite a clear misalignment between wind and waves. The results support the hypothesis that nonlinear wave-wave interactions may play a key role in the formation of wave characteristics.     

Numerical simulation and preliminary analysis on ocean waves during Typhoon Nesat in South China Sea and adjacent areas

Using the wave model WAVEWATCH III(WW3), we simulated the generation and propagation of typhoon waves in the South China Sea and adjacent areas during the passage of typhoon Nesat(2011). In the domain 100°–145°E and 0°–35°N, the model was forced by the cross-calibrated multi-platform(CCMP) wind fi elds of September 15 to October 5, 2011. We then validated the simulation results against wave radar data observed from an oil platform and altimeter data from the Jason-2 satellite. The simulated waves were characterized by fi ve points along track using the Spectrum Integration Method(SIM) and the Spectrum Partitioning Method(SPM), by which wind sea and swell components of the 1D and 2D wave spectra are separated. There was reasonable agreement between the model results and observations, although the WW3 wave model may underestimate swell wave height. Signifi cant wave heights are large along the typhoon track and are noticeably greater on the right of the track than on the left. Swells from the east are largely unable to enter the South China Sea because of the obstruction due to the Philippine Islands. During the initial stage and later period of the typhoon, swells at the fi ve points were generated by the propagation of waves that were created by typhoons Haitang and Nalgae. Of the two methods, the 2D SPM method is more accurate than the 1D SIM which overestimates the separation frequency under low winds, but the SIM method is more convenient because it does not require wind speed and wave direction. When the typhoon left the area, the wind sea fractions decreased rapidly. Under similar wind conditions, the points located in the South China Sea are affected less than those points situated in the open sea because of the infl uence of the complex internal topography of the South China Sea. The results reveal the characteristic wind sea and swell features of the South China Sea and adjacent areas in response to typhoon Nesat, and provide a reference for swell forecasting and offshore structural designs.     

Numerieal prediction of storm surge in the Qingdao area under the impact of climate change

A typhoon-induced storm surge simulation system was developed for the Qingdao area, including a typhoon diagnostic model for the generation of wind and pressure fields and a 2D Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model for simulating the associated storm surge with a 200 m resolution along the Qingdao coastline. The system was validated by an extreme surge event Typhoon Mamie (8509) and the parameters of Typhoon Mamie were used to investigate the sensitivity of typhoon paths to Qingdao storm surges with four selected paths: the paths of Typhoons Mamie (8509), Opal, 3921 and 2413, the selection being made according to their relative position to Qingdao. Experiments based on the Typhoon Mamie (8509) storm surge were also conducted to study the possible influences of future climate changes, including the sea level rise and sea surface temperature (SST) rise, on storm surges along the Qingdao coast. Storm surge conditions under both present day and future (the end of the 21st century) climate scenarios associated with the four selected paths were simulated. The results show that with the same intensity, when typhoons follow the paths of 3921 and 2413, they would lead to the most serious disasters in different areas of Qingdao. Sea level and SST affect storm surges in different ways: sea level rise affects storm surge mainly through its influence on the tide amplitude, while the increased SST has direct impact on the intensity of the surges. The possible maximum risk of storm surges in 2100 in the Qingdao area caused by typhoons like Mamie (8509) was also estimated in this study.     

An ultra-shallow water storm surge model with quadratically depth-varying eddy viscosity and its application to the numerical modelling of the Bohai Sea storm surges

Based on the ultra-shallow water storm surge theory proposed by Qin and Feng^[1] (1975), an ultra-shallow water storm surge model, taking into consideration the effect of the earth's rotation and the quadratically depth-varying eddy viscosity, is developed. Using the model wind stress fields as a guide for representing the effect of wind stress forcing in our model, a numerical investigation of the Bohai Sea wind surge is made. As a better means for solving the mathematical model, the Galerkin finite element technique is employed in numerical solutions. Under the control of the main weather situation, namely, the cold wave combined with the extratropical cyclone, two storm surge processes experienced on the Bohai Sea are simulated numerically. It is found that the experimental results, in the main, are in agreement with the observations.     

The Characteristics of Storm Wave Behavior and Its Effect on Cage Culture Using the ADCIRC+SWAN Model in Houshui Bay,China

The current storm wave hazard assessment tends to rely on a statistical method using wave models and fewer historical data which do not consider the effects of tidal and storm surge.In this paper,the wave-current coupled model ADCIRC+SWAN was used to hindcast storm events in the last 30 years.We simulated storm wave on the basis of a large set of historical storms in the North-West Pacific Basin between 1985 and 2015 in Houshui Bay using the wave-current coupled model ADCIRC+SWAN to obtain the storm wave level maps.The results were used for the statistical analysis of the maximum significant wave heights in Houshui Bay and the behavior of wave associated with storm track.Comparisons made between observations and simulated results during typhoon Rammasun(2014)indicate agreement.In addition,results demonstrate that significant wave height in Houshui Bay is dominated by the storm wind velocity and the storm track.Two groups of synthetic storm tracks were designed to further investigate the worst case of typhoon scenarios.The storm wave analysis method developed for the Houshui Bay is significant in assisting government's decision-making in rational planning of deep sea net-cage culture.The method can be applied to other bays in the Hainan Island as well.     

Numerical simulation of the genesis of typhoon Durian (2001) over the South China Sea: The effect of sea surface temperature

Typhoon Durian (2001),which formed over the South China Sea (SCS),was simulated by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The genesis of typhoon Durian which formed in the monsoon trough was reproduced by numerical simulations. The simulated results agree reasonably well with observations. Two numerical experiments in which the sea surface temperature (SST) was either decreased or increased were performed to investigate the impact of the SST on the genesis of the ty-phoon. When the SST was decreased by 5℃ uniformly for all grids in the model,the winds calculated became divergent in the lower troposphere and convergent in the upper troposphere,creating conditions in which the amount of total latent heat release (TLHR) was low and the tropical cyclone (TC) could not be formed. This simulation shows the importance of the convergence in the lower tropo-sphere and the divergence in the upper troposphere for the genesis of the initial vortex. When the SST was increased by 1℃ uni-formly for all grids,a stronger typhoon was generated in the results with an increase of about 10 m s-1 in the maximum surface wind speed. Only minor differences in intensity were noted during the first 54 h in the simulation with the warmer SST,but apparent dif-ferences in intensity occurred after 54 h when the vortex began to strengthen to typhoon strength. This experiment shows that warmer SST will speed the strengthening from tropical storm strength to typhoon strength and increase the maximum intensity reached,while only minor impact can be seen during the earlier stage of genesis before the TC reaches the tropical storm strength. The results sug-gest that the amount of TLHR may be the dominant factor in determining the formation and the intensification of the TC.     

Wave-current interaction during Typhoon Nuri (2008) and Hagupit (2008):an application of the coupled ocean-wave modeling system in the northern South China Sea

The northern South China Sea(SCS) is frequently affected by typhoons. During severe storm events, wave-current interactions produce storm surges causing enormous damage in the path of the typhoon. To evaluate the influence of wave-current interactions on storm surge, we used a coupled ocean-atmospherewave-sediment transport(COAWST) modeling system with radiation-stress and vortex-force formulations to simulate two typically intense tropical storms that invaded the SCS, namely Typhoons Nuri(2008) and Hagupit(2008), and compared results with observations from the Hong Kong Observatory. Both radiationstress and vortex-force formulations significantly improved the accuracy of the simulation. Depending on which typhoon and the topography encountered, the influence of surface waves on the oceanic circulation showed different characteristics, including the differences of range and intensity of storm surge between vortex-force and radiation-stress experiments. During typhoon landing, strong sea-surface elevation in concert with wave set-up/set-down caused the adjustment of the momentum balance. In the direction perpendicular to the current, but especially in the cross-shore direction, the pressure gradient and wave effects on the current dominated the momentum balance.     

台风风暴潮情景构建与时空推演

因台风风暴潮的突发性、情景演变时间的连续性和路径的不确定性,导致应急决策者在应急救援中难以做出正确决策,针对这一现状,将“情景—应对”应用在台风风暴潮应急决策中。本文在分析台风风暴潮情景、情景要素的概念模型基础上,首先通过资料搜集、属性识别等方法提取关键情景要素,采用框架表示法构建情景;然后分析台风风暴潮情景演变规律及演变路径;其次通过动态贝叶斯网络法构建台风风暴潮动态情景网络;最后利用先验概率与条件概率计算情景状态概率,实现了台风风暴潮的关键情景推演。本文以2018年9月16日11时至17时山竹台风对广东省沿海城市影响为例,演示了台风风暴潮的情景推演流程及关键技术。实证分析结果表明,溃堤、海水倒灌、洪水、滑坡发生的概率分别为85%、81%、74%、54%,验证了情景推演在风暴潮中应用的合理性。     

Numerical study on the spatially varying drag coefficient in simulation of storm surges employing the adjoint method

From the simulation of storm surges resulting from Typhoons 7203 and 8509 in the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea and East China Sea, water level data at tide stations are assimilated into a two-dimensional storm surge model, to study the spatially varying drag coefficient (DC) by employing the adjoint method. In this study, the DC at some grid points is uniformly selected as the independent DC, while the DC at other grid points is obtained through linear interpolation of the independent DC. The DC at independent points is optimized by employing the adjoint assimilation method, and global optimization is achieved by optimizing the independent DC. To demonstrate the method’s performance, three comparative experiments are carried out. In the first experiment, the DC is treated as a constant. In the second and third experiments, the DC is derived using an empirical formula. Comparing the experimental results, it is found that the simulation accuracy for both Typhoons 7203 and 8509 increases greatly when optimizing the independent DC. However, the number of independent points makes no great difference to the precision of simulation. Moreover, the DC inverted from Typhoons 7203 and 8509 differs in some sea areas because of the different typhoon tracks. However, the spatial distribution of the inverted DC, for both Typhoons 7203 and 8509, demonstrates a clear effect of the DC on the storm surge modeling near the coastal areas where the DC is highest or lowest.     

基于高斯曲线拟合-FFT方法的南海风场反演

海面风场是海洋学的基本参量,获取海面风场对了解海洋的物理过程以及海洋与大气之间的相互作用至关重要。宽阔的海域面积及复杂的海面状况通常使南海海面上的风场信息很难被及时获取。ENVISAT ASAR是一种全天候全天时监测海面的微波雷达传感器,可实时获取海面风场数据。本文基于已有ASAR数据对南海海面风场进行反演实验,首先将结合高斯曲线拟合的FFT风向反演方法应用于南海风向反演,并参考Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform （CCMP）风场数据去除180o方向模糊获得海面风向。然后,将高斯曲线拟合-FFT风向与传统的峰值-FFT风向进行对比,最后将准确率较高的高斯曲线拟合-FFT风向分别输入CMOD4模型和CMOD5模型获得海面风速大小。实验结果与CCMP参考数据的比较结果表明,在风条纹不明显的情况下,利用结合高斯曲线的FFT风向反演方法和CMOD4模型风速反演方法可有效地进行南海海面风场反演。该成果对利用SAR数据实时获取南海大面积海面风场信息,尤其是观测点缺乏海域的风场信息,具有重要的指导意义。     

Nonlinear interaction between astronomical tides and storm surges at wusong tidal station

There are obvious periodic oscillations in the observations of storm surges in the East China Sea. The storm surges are not only controlled by the wind stresses and isolated long wave caused by typhoons but also affected by the interaction between astronomical tides and storm surges. In the present paper we simulate the interaction between tides and storm surges by using a two dimensional numerical model. In our numerical experiments we use the data of the storm surge induced by Typhoon 8114. The calculations tally with the measured data well. The results indicate that the periodic oscillations occurring in the elevations of the surge are mainly caused by the interaction between the tide and the storm surge. The numerical experiments also indicate that the forecasting precision may be notably improved if the nonlinear interaction between tides and storm surges is taken into account.     

Numerical Simulation of Typhoon Muifa(2011) Using a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport(COAWST) Modeling System

The newly developed Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport(COAWST) Modeling System is applied to investigate typhoon-ocean interactions in this study. The COAWST modeling system represents the state-of-the-art numerical simulation technique comprising several coupled models to study coastal and environmental processes. The modeling system is applied to simulate Typhoon Muifa(2011), which strengthened from a tropical storm to a super typhoon in the Northwestern Pacific, to explore the heat fluxes exchanged among the processes simulated using the atmosphere model WRF, ocean model ROMS and wave model SWAN. These three models adopted the same horizontal grid. Three numerical experiments with different coupling configurations are performed in order to investigate the impact of typhoon-ocean interaction on the intensity and ocean response to typhoon. The simulated typhoon tracks and intensities agree with observations. Comparisons of the simulated variables with available atmospheric and oceanic observations show the good performance of using the coupled modeling system for simulating the ocean and atmosphere processes during a typhoon event. The fully coupled simulation that includes a ocean model identifies a decreased SST as a result of the typhoon-forced entrainment. Typhoon intensity and wind speed are reduced due to the decrease of the sea surface temperature when using a coupled ocean model. The experiments with ocean coupled to atmosphere also results in decreased sea surface heat flux and air temperature. The heat flux decreases by about 29% compared to the WRF only case. The reduction of the energy induced by SST decreases, resulting in weakening of the typhoon. Coupling of the waves to the atmosphere and ocean model induces a slight increase of SST in the typhoon center area with the ocean-atmosphere interaction increased as a result of wave feedback to atmosphere.     

Predict typhoon-induced storm surge deviation in a principal component back-propagation neural network model

To reduce typhoon-caused damages, numerical and empirical methods are often used to forecast typhoon storm surge. However, typhoon surge is a complex nonlinear process that is difficult to forecast accurately. We applied a principal component back-propagation neural network (PCBPNN) to predict the deviation in typhoon storm surge, in which data of the typhoon, upstream flood, and historical case studies were involved. With principal component analysis, 15 input factors were reduced to five principal components, and the application of the model was improved. Observation data from Huangpu Park in Shanghai, China were used to test the feasibility of the model. The results indicate that the model is capable of predicting a 12-hour warning before a typhoon surge.     

Typhoon wind hazard model and estimation on return period of typhoon wind speed

Typhoons are one of the most serious natural disasters that occur annually on China's southeast coast.A technique for analyzing the typhoon wind hazard was developed based on the empirical track model,and used to generate 1 000-year virtual typhoons for Northwest Pacific basin.The influences of typhoon decay model,track model,and the extreme value distribution on the predicted extreme wind speed were investigated.We found that different typhoon decay models have least influence on the predicted extreme wind speed.Over most of the southeast coast of China,the predicted wind speed by the nonsimplified empirical track model is larger than that from the simplified tracking model.The extreme wind speed predicted by different extreme value distribution is quite different.Four super typhoons Meranti(2016),Hato(2017),Mangkhut(2018),and Lekima(2019) were selected and the return periods of typhoon wind speeds along the China southeast coast were estimated in order to assess the typhoon wind hazard.     

热带气旋活动对陕西2007年两次大暴雨影响的综合分析

通过2007年陕西两次区域性大暴雨的分析发现,台风远距离的影响作用明显。在对流层中低层,台风西行发展和加强时,台风低压的东侧或东北侧的风场出现显著增强现象,为暴雨区输送大量能量和提供充沛的水汽。台风在海南附近时,其径向特征表现明显,大暴雨出现在秦岭以南;台风在台湾附近时,其纬向特征表现明显,大暴雨出现在秦岭以北。垂直运动分析表明,台风低压系统的存在、维持、发展和加强对副热带高压有一定的维持、加强作用,有利于强降水的形势能够稳定和维持。     

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Observation and numerical experiments for drag coefficient under typhoon wind forcing

This paper presents a study on drag coefficients under typhoon wind forcing based on observations and numerical experiments. The friction velocity and wind speed are measured at a marine observation platform in the South China Sea. Three typhoons: SOULIK(2013), TRAMI(2013) and FITOW(2013) are observed at a buoy station in the northeast sea area of Pingtan Island. A new parameterization is formulated for the wind drag coefficient as a function of wind speed. It is found that the drag coefficient(Cd) increases linearly with the slope of 0.083′10~(-3) for wind speed less than 24 m s~(-1). To investigate the drag coefficient under higher wind conditions, three numerical experiments are implemented for these three typhoons using SWAN wave model. The wind input data are objective reanalysis datasets, which are assimilated with many sources and provided every six hours with the resolution of 0.125?×0.125?. The numerical simulation results show a good agreement with wave observation data under typhoon wind forcing. The results indicate that the drag coefficient levels off with the linear slope of 0.012′10~(-3) for higher wind speeds(less than 34 m s~(-1)) and the new parameterization improvese the simulation accuracy compared with the Wu(1982) default used in SWAN.     

A combined model of wind, wave, tide and storm surges

A combined numerical model of wind, wave, tide, and storm surges was built on the basis of the “wind field model in limited sea surface areas”. When used to forecast the sea surface wind, wave height and water level, it can describe them very well. Contribution No. 4108 from the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences. This work supported by Stress Project (KZ952-S1-420), Chinese Academy of Sciences; 863 Project (863-818-06-05), and (863-818-Q-07)