Runoff responses to climate change in arid region of northwestern China during 1960–2010

Based on runoff, air temperature, and precipitation data from 1960 to 2010, the effects of climate change on water resources in the arid region of the northwestern China were investigated. The long-term trends of hydroclimatic variables were studied by using both Mann-Kendall test and distributed-free cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart test. Results indicate that the mean annual air temperature increases significantly from 1960 to 2010. The annual precipitation exhibits an increasing trend, especially in the south slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the North Uygur Autonomous Region of Xinjiang in the study period. Step changes occur in 1988 in the mean annual air temperature time series and in 1991 in the precipitation time series. The runoff in different basins shows different trends, i.e., significantly increasing in the Kaidu River, the Aksu River and the Shule River, and decreasing in the Shiyang River. Correlation analysis reveals that the runoff in the North Xinjiang (i.e., the Weigan River, the Heihe River, and the Shiyang River) has a strong positive relationship with rainfall, while that in the south slope of the Tianshan Mountains, the middle section of the north slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the Shule River has a strong positive relationship with air temperature. The trends of runoff have strong negative correlations with glacier coverage and the proportion of glacier water in runoff. From the late 1980s, the climate has become warm and wet in the arid region of the northwestern China. The change in runoff is interacted with air temperature, precipitation and glacier coverage. The results show that streamflow in the arid region of the northwestern China is sensitive to climate change, which can be used as a reference for regional water resource assessment and management.     

新疆NDVI时空特征及气候变化影响研究

基于新疆50个气象测站2003-2010年逐日降水、气温资料,结合逐月归一化植被覆盖影像资料,利用趋势分析、R/S分析、模糊C均值聚类、图像处理等方法,系统分析了全疆NDVI时空变化特征及其可持续性,并探究NDVI与气候因子（气温、降水）之间的相关性。研究表明：植被覆盖及气象因子年际间差异不大,呈现出整体稳定的态势,但年内变化明显。北疆/天山北坡水热条件优良、植被长势最好,且植被长势对气候因子的滞后效应并不明显且滞后时间短。天山南坡/天山东段次之,而南疆植被覆盖程度最差,南疆/天山南坡植被长势对气候因子（降水、气温）存在明显的滞后效应,植被生长受气温、降水限制性更大,且气温作为主要因子,对天山南坡植被生长的限制作用表现得更为突出。总体上,新疆植被覆盖呈持续性变化,现有植被覆盖情况基本保持不变,但呈退化趋势的面积大于得到改善的面积,在一定程度上与人类活动有很大关系,探查植被长势的变化趋势并及时做出相应调整,不仅能为新疆地区的植被保护以及植被恢复工作提供一定的科学依据,更能够为合理有效地安排农作物生产提供重要的理论指导。     

CLIMATIC TREND INDICATED BY VARIATIONS OF GLACIERS AND LAKES IN THE TIANSHAN MOUNTAINS

ＣＬＩＭＡＴＩＣＴＲＥＮＤＩＮＤＩＣＡＴＥＤＢＹＶＡＲＩＡＴＩＯＮＳＯＦＧＬＡＣＩＥＲＳＡＮＤＬＡＫＥＳＩＮＴＨＥＴＩＡＮＳＨＡＮＭＯＵＮＴＡＩＮＳ￥ＨｕＲｕｊｉ；ＹａｎｇＣｈｕａｎｄｅ；ＭａＨｏｎｇ；ＪｉａｎｇＦｅｎｇｑｉｎｇ（ＸｉｎｊｉａｎｇＩｎ...     

WATER ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BELT OF XINJIANG SECTION OF THE NEW EURASIAN CONTINENTAL BRIDGE

TheimportantgUidingprinciplethatenstiresthesustainabledevelOPmentOfChinais"The21stCentury'sAgendaofChina"(Office,1994).ThesustainabledevelopmentintheareasalongthenewEtirasiancontinentalBridge(sectioninXinjiang)belongstooneoftheprioritemsof"theagenda".TheopeningofthenewEtirasiancontinentalBridgenotonlybringsabbotgreatoPPOrtunitiesfordevelopmentofXinjiang,butalsoplaysamajorroleinreducingthegapbetweentheWesternandeasternpartsofChina.Furthermore,itcantriggerfuttiresustainabledevelOPmentin…     

中国西北地区植被NDVI的时空变化及其影响因子分析

利用GIMMS/NDVI数据分析了中国西北地区1982-2006年植被NDVI时空变化特征及其影响因子。近25年来,中国西北地区年均植被NDVI增速为0.5%/10a,并存在明显的空间差异。天山、阿尔泰山、祁连山、青海的中东部等地区植被NDVI显著增加;青海南部地区、陕西和宁夏交界地区、甘肃部分地区,以及新疆部分地区的植被NDVI下降。从不同植被类型看:林地、草地和耕地的年均NDVI都在提高。研究表明:中国西北地区植被NDVI变化是各种自然和人为因素综合作用的结果。植被NDVI与气温、降水的年际变化整体上都呈弱的正相关。但与其年内变化则都呈显著的线性关系,当月均温量超过20℃时,植被NDVI呈下降趋势;当月降水量在0¹00mm期间,植被NDVI随降水线性增长,当月降水量超过100mm之后,不再有明显的增长趋势。农业生产水平提高和植被生态建设等人类活动对西北地区植被NDVI增加有重要影响。     

Characterizing spatial patterns of precipitation based on corrected TRMM 3B43 data over the mid Tianshan Mountains of China

The poor distribution of meteorological stations results in a limited understanding of the precipitation pattern in the Tianshan Mountains. The spatial patterns of precipitation over the mid Tianshan Mountains were characterized based on the TRMM 3B43 monthly precipitation data. By comparing satellite estimates with observed data, it shows that TRMM 3B43 data underestimate the precipitation in mountain region. Regression models were developed to improve the TRMM 3B43 data, using geographic location and topographic variables extracted from DEM using GIS technology. The explained variance in observed precipitation was improved from 64% (from TRMM 3B43 products alone) to over 82% and the bias reduced by over 30% when location and topographic variables were added. We recalculated all the TRMM 3B43 monthly precipitation grids for the period 1998 to 2009 using the best regression models, and then studied the variation patterns of precipitation over the mid Tianshan Mountains. The results are well explained by a general understanding of the patterns of precipitation and orographic effects. This indicated that the Tianshan Mountains strongly influences the amount and distribution of precipitation in the region. This is highlighted by the confinement of the precipitation maxima to the windward (northern slope). And complex vertical changes in the provenance and distribution of precipitation, like that a negative increasing rate of precipitation in the vertical direction exists in the north but does not in south. The results have also revealed large gradients and different patterns in seasonal precipitation that are not simply related to elevation, the distribution of precipitation may also be affected by other seasonal factors such as the sources of moist air, wind direction and temperature.     

Estimation of mountain block recharge on the northern Tianshan Mountains using numerical modeling

Mountain block recharge(MBR), an important water resource, is a widespread process that recharges lowland aquifers. However, little is known about MBR due to the limited climatic and geologic data in mountainous regions such as the northern central foothills of Tianshan. Here, we present an approach to quantify MBR through the combination of water balance calculations and numerical modeling. MBR calculated from the water balance in the data-limited Tianshan Mountains is employed as a fluid-flux boundary condition in the numerical model of the plain. To verify the performance of the model, mean absolute error and root mean square error were used. Results show that the volume of water that is recharging the aquifer via MBR is 107.29 million m~3/yr, accounting for 2.2% of the total precipitation that falls in the mountains. Additionally, 53.3% of that precipitation enters the plain aquifer via runoff, totaling 2,652.68 million m~3/yr. The lower volume of MBR is attributed to a major range-bounding anticline with apparent low permeability in the Tianshan Mountains. Through numerical modeling of groundwater, MBR coming from bedrock was found to be significant, accounting for 14% of total aquifer recharge in the plain, only after the portion of runoff seepage. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of MBR, and may provide instructions for estimating groundwater recharge in arid and semi-arid areas.     

AN ANALYSIS OF WATER RESOURCE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE RIVERS IN THE NORTHERN SLOPE OF THE KUNLUN MOUNTAINS

ＡＮＡＮＡＬＹＳＩＳＯＦＷＡＴＥＲＲＥＳＯＵＲＣＥＣＨＡＲＡＣＴＥＲＩＳＴＩＣＳＯＦＴＨＥＲＩＶＥＲＳＩＮＴＨＥＮＯＲＴＨＥＲＮＳＬＯＰＥＯＦＴＨＥＫＵＮＬＵＮＭＯＵＮＴＡＩＮＳＸｕＹｏｕｐｅｎｇ（许有鹏）；ＧａｏＹｕｎｊｕｅ（高蕴珏）（Ｄｅｐａｒｔ...     

Modeling the Roles of Precipitation Increasing in Glacier Systems Responding to Climate Warming —— Taking Xinjiang Glaciated Region as Example

The studies on prediction of climate in Xinjiang almost show that the precipitation would increase in the coming 50 years, although there were surely some uncertainties in precipitation predictions. On the basis of the structure of glacier system and nature of equilibrium line altitude at steady state （ELAo）, a functional model of the glacier system responding to climate changes was established, and it simultaneously involved the rising of summer mean temperature and increasing of mean precipitation. The results from the functional model under the climatic scenarios with temperature increasing rates of 0.01, 0.03 and 0.05 K/year indicated that the precipitation increasing would play an evident role in glacier system responding to climate change： if temperature become 1 ℃ higher, the precipitation would be increased by 10%, which can slow down the glaciers retreating rate in the area by 4 %, accelerate runoff increasing rate by 8 % and depress the ELAo rising gradient by 24 m in northern Xinjiang glacier system where semi-continental glaciers dominate, while it has corresponding values of only 1%, 5 % and 18m respectively in southern Xinjiang glacier system, where extremely continental glaciers dominate.     

Topographic controls on the annual runoff coefficient and implications for landscape evolution across semiarid Qilian Mountains,NE Tibetan Plateau

The combination of different topographic and climatic conditions results in varied precipitation-runoff relations, which in turn influences hillslope erosion, sediment transport and bedrock incision across mountainous landscapes. The runoff coefficient is a suitable tool to represent precipitation-runoff relations, but the spatial distribution of the runoff coefficient across tectonically active mountains in semi-arid environments has received little attention because of limited data availability. We calculated annual runoff coefficients over 22 years for 26 drainage basins across the semi-arid Qilian Mountains based on:(i) annual discharge records; and(ii) the China Meteorological Forcing Dataset to enhance our understanding of the precipitation-runoff processes. The mean annual runoff coefficients show no obvious spatial trends. When compared to potential controlling factors, mean annual runoff coefficients are highly correlated with mean slope rather than any climatic characteristics(e.g., mean annualprecipitation and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index). The slope-dependent runoff coefficient could theoretically have enhanced the topographic control on erosion rates and dampen the influence of precipitation. The enhanced discharge for drainage basins with less precipitation but steep topography in the western Qilian Mountains will enable fluvial incision to keep pace with ongoing uplift caused by the northward growth of the Qilian Mountains. The geomorphic implications are that tectonic rather than climatic factors are more significant for long-term landscape evolution in arid and semi-arid contexts.     

Comparative Assessment of Tundra Vegetation Changes Between North and Southwest Slopes of Changbai Mountains,China, in Response to Global Warming

Vegetation in high altitude areas normally exhibits the strongest response to global warming. We investigated the tundra vegetation on the Changbai Mountains and revealed the similarities and differences between the north and the southwest slopes of the Changbai Mountains in response to global warming. Our results were as follows: 1) The average temperatures in the growing season have increased from 1981 to 2015, the climate tendency rate was 0.38℃/10 yr, and there was no obvious change in precipitation observed. 2) The tundra vegetation of the Changbai Mountains has changed significantly over the last 30 years. Specifically, herbaceous plants have invaded into the tundra zone, and the proportion of herbaceous plants was larger than that of shrubs. Shrub tundra was transforming into shrub-grass tundra. 3) The tundra vegetation in the north and southwest slopes of the Changbai Mountains responded differently to global warming. The southwest slope showed a significantly higher degree of invasion from herbaceous plants and exhibited greater vegetation change than the north slope. 4) The species diversity of plant communities on the tundra zone of the north slope changed unimodally with altitude, while that on the tundra zone of the southwest slope decreased monotonously with altitude. Differences in the degree of invasion from herbaceous plants resulted in differences in species diversity patterns between the north and southwest slopes. Differences in local microclimate, plant community successional stage and soil fertility resulted in differential responses of tundra vegetation to global warming.     

Assessing spatio-temporal characteristics of water storage changes in the mountainous areas of Central Asia based on GRACE

The mountainous areas of Central Asia provide substantial water resources, and studying change in water storage and the impacts of precipitation and snow cover in the mountain ranges of Central Asia is of the greatest importance for understanding regional water shortages and the main factors. Data from the GRACE(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellites, precipitation products and snow-covered area data were used to analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of water storage changes and the effects of precipitation and snow cover from April 2002 to December 2013. The results were computed for each mountain ranges, and the following conclusions were drawn. The water storage in the mountainous areas of Central Asia as a whole increases in summer and winter, whereas it decreases in autumn. The water storage is affected by precipitation to some extent and some areas exhibit hysteresis. The area of positive water storage changes moves from west to east over the course of the year. The water storage declined during the period 2002–2004. It then returned to a higher level in 2005–2006 and featured lower levels in 2007–2009 Subsequently, the water storage increased gradually from 2010 to 2013. The Eastern Tianshan Mountains and Western Tianshan Mountain subzones examined in this study display similar tendencies, and the trends observed in the Karakorum Mountains and the Kunlun Mountains are also similar. However, the Eastern Tianshan Mountains and Western Tianshan Mountains were influenced by precipitation to a greater degree than the latter two ranges. The water storage in Qilian Mountains showed a pronounced increasing trend, and this range is the most strongly affected by precipitation. Based on an analysis of all investigated subzones, precipitation has the greatest influence on total water storage relative to the snow covered area in some areas of Central Asia. The results obtained from this study will be of value for scientists studying the mechanisms that influence changes in water storage in Central Asia.     

新疆天山-北山成矿带区域地球化学特征

根据地质构造和矿产分布特征,将天山—北山成矿带划分为西南天山、东天山、西天山、北山4个单元。依据1∶20万水系沉积物测量数据,对比分析了主要成矿元素在整个成矿带及4个构造单元的背景值、元素的空间分布规律、元素富集特征及其与成矿的关系等。得出西南天山、西天山元素富集特征反映了以金为主的矿化特征;东天山反映以金、铜(镍)、银多金属为主的矿产格架,北山是以金为主矿化特征。     

Holocene abrupt climate shifts and mid-Holocene drought intervals recorded in Barkol Lake of Northern Xinjiang of China

Study results in this paper have indicated that the Holocene climate in Xinjiang, Northwestem China has been alternating between wet and dry conditions, and was punctuated with a series of abrupt climate shifts. A sediment core taken from Barkol Lake in the northern Xinjiang of Northwest China was analyzed at 1 cm interval for grain-size distribution. Abrupt climate shifts revealed by the grain-size proxy occurred at ca 1.4, 3.0, 4.3, 5.6, 8.0 cal kyr B.E, which were well correlated to both the abrupt shifts recorded in the North Atlantic Ocean （NAO） and the Holocene sea surface temperature （SST） cooling events in the Arabian Ocean. The correlation indicated that the climatic changes in the extreme arid Northwest China were associated with the NAO, probably via the North Atlantic Oscillation-affected westerly winds. The strength and position of westerly winds probably modulated the Siberian-Mongolian high- pressure system （winter monsoon）, and played an important role in climate change of Northwest China. Moreover, an evident drought interval during the middle Holocene was also revealed by grain-size proxy.     

THE LITTLE ICE AGE OF THE NORTHWEST REGION,CHINA

The Little Ice Age began in the early 15 the century and ended in 16 the century in the northwest region of China. In the Northern Hemisphere, the age of the Little Ice Age postponed form north to south, form west to east, and moist region to drought. Judged by the data the Little Ice Age of the Northwest China is later than the eastern China and Europe. The climate of the Little Ice Age in northwest China was cold-wet. In northwest China, as compared with the Little Ice Age, the recently annual temperature have raised about 1-1.3℃, the precipitation have reduced 50-78 mm, the evaporation have increased 7%, the glacier area have reduced about 21-46%, and the runoff have reduced about 14% in the river which the meltwater supply proportion is less than 10%. To sum up, since the Little Ice Age the warm-dry tendency of climatic variation is quite obviously in northwest China. If it goes on like this, its influence will be more severe to the river which meltwater proportion is more than 50%.     

新疆冰雪旅游资源适宜性评价研究

冰雪旅游正在成为冬季旅游出行的新选择。新疆冰雪旅游资源丰富,如何合理开发利用资源成为当地旅游开发亟待解决的问题,因此本文从旅游资源适宜性角度出发,选取自然条件、旅游资源、社会经济和交通可达性等方面的18个影响因子,采用层次分析法（AHP）和熵值法（EWM）确定组合权重,运用GIS空间分析技术和多因子加权评价模型（MCE）对研究区冰雪旅游资源适宜性进行评价。研究结果显示：① 就自然条件来看,伊犁东部、阿勒泰北部沿山脉边缘的丘陵和平原等地区较适宜发展冰雪旅游;② 阿勒泰地区和乌鲁木齐市的旅游资源相关基础设施完备,昌吉和伊犁在旅游资源方面也有较强竞争力;③ 社会经济来看,伊犁、乌鲁木齐市和阿勒泰地区为代表的北疆城市较南疆有更强的游客接待能力;④ 伊犁、乌昌经济带沿线地区交通可达性明显优于南疆各地州市。新疆冰雪旅游综合适宜性指数为1.8622-7.5724之间,其中天山北坡、阿勒泰北部、伊犁、塔城北部、哈密中部等地区为高度适宜;南疆大部分区域处于中低度适宜。建议通过加强新型旅游资源开发和整合,积极承办大型冰雪运动相关赛事,借助丝绸之路经济带发展交通道路建设,以加速推进新疆冰雪旅游发展。本研究可为冰雪旅游区开发和选址提供空间导向和科学依据。     

Comparison of the spatio-temporal dynamics of vegetation between the Changbai Mountains of eastern Eurasia and the Appalachian Mountains of eastern North America

The Changbai Mountains and the Appalachian Mountains have similar spatial contexts. The elevation, latitude, and moisture gradients of both mountain ranges offer regional insight for investigating the vegetation dynamics in eastern Eurasia and eastern North America. We determined and compared the spatial patterns and temporal trends in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in the Changbai Mountains and the Appalachian Mountains using time series data from the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies 3rd generation dataset from 1982 to 2013. The spatial pattern of NDVI in the Changbai Mountains exhibited fragmentation, whereas NDVI in the Appalachian Mountains decreased from south to north. The vegetation dynamics in the Changbai Mountains had an insignificant trend at the regional scale, whereas the dynamics in the Appalachian Mountains had a significant increasing trend. NDVI increased in 55% of the area of the Changbai Mountains and in 95% of the area of the Appalachian Mountains. The peak NDVI occurred one month later in the Changbai Mountains than in the Appalachian Mountains. The results revealed a significant increase in NDVI in autumn in both mountain ranges. The climatic trend in the Changbai Mountains included warming and decreased precipitation, and whereas that in the Appalachian Mountains included significant warming and increased precipitation. Positive and negative correlations existed between NDVI and temperature and precipitation, respectively, in both mountain ranges. Particularly, the spring temperature and NDVI exhibited a significant positive correlation in both mountain ranges. The results of this study suggest that human actives caused the differences in the spatial patterns of NDVI and that various characteristics of climate change and intensity of human actives dominated the differences in the NDVI trends between the Changbai Mountains and the Appalachian Mountains. Additionally, the vegetation dynamics of both mountain ranges were not identical to those in previous broader-scale studies.     

Variation of Thornthwaite moisture index in Hengduan Mountains,China

The Thornthwaite moisture index, an index of the supply of water(precipitation) in an area relative to the climatic demand for water(potential evapotranspiration), was used to examine the spatial and temporal variation of drought and to verify the influence of environmental factors on the drought in the Hengduan Mountains, China. Results indicate that the Thornthwaite moisture index in the Hengduan Mountains had been increasing since 1960 with a rate of 0.1938/yr. Annual Thornthwaite moisture index in Hengduan Mountains was between –97.47 and 67.43 and the spatial heterogeneity was obvious in different seasons. Thornthwaite moisture index was high in the north and low in the south, and the monsoon rainfall had a significant impact on its spatial distribution. The tendency rate of Thornthwaite moisture index variation varied in different seasons, and the increasing trends in spring were greater than that in summer and autumn. However, the Thornthwaite moisture index decreased in winter. Thornthwaite moisture index increased greatly in the north and there was a small growth in the south of Hengduan Mountains. The increase of precipitation and decrease of evaporation lead to the increase of Thornthwaite moisture index. Thornthwaite moisture index has strong correlation with vegetation coverage. It can be seen that the correlation between Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) and Thornthwaite moisture index was positive in spring and summer, but negative in autumn and winter. Correlation between Thornthwaite moisture index and relative soil relative moisture content was positive in spring, summer and autumn, but negative in winter. The typical mountainous terrain affect the distribution of temperature, precipitation, wind speed and other meteorological factors in this region, and then affect the spatial distribution of Thornthwaite moisture index. The unique ridge-gorge terrain caused the continuity of water-heat distribution from the north to south, and the water-heat was stronger than that from the east to west part, and thus determined the spatial distribution of Thornthwaite moisture index. The drought in the Hengduan Mountains area is mainly due to the unstable South Asian monsoon rainfall time.     

Effect of the Zagros Mountains on the spatial distribution of precipitation

In order to examine the effect of the Zagros Mountains on precipitation, first, the annual and Seasonal rainfall indices （rain days frequency, rain amount, daily rainfall intensity, and heavy rains） from 43 stations in 1995 - 2004 between the 30° N to 35° N parallels over the mountain range were analyzed. Second, the effect of the Zagros Mountains was studied through the computation of the spatial correlations between the precipitation parameters and the topographic indices （station site elevation, station mean elevation within a radius of 2.5 km, mean elevation of 9 blocks along each of the eight Cartesian directions, and the elevation differences of these 9 blocks from the station mean elevation）. The results showed that in the cold season the maximal rainfall occurs on the upper range of west slope, while in warm season it spreads over the study area. The correlations between precipitation and elevation indices were positive on the north of the stations and negative on the south of the stations, that is, the higher elevations of the stations to the north force the uplifting of the moist air masses and increase rainfall at the stations, while the lower elevations to their south lead the movement of the moist air masses to the stations. This is due to the fact that these stations or slopes are exposed to the moist air masses coming from the Mediterranean Sea and the Persian Gulf. The heavy rain days and the summer sporadic rain events do not show significant correlations with the topographic indices. The findings indicate that the Zagros Mountains intensify the cold period frontal rains especially over the west slope and block the moist air masses from entering the interior parts of the country. Moreover, these mountains play a secondary role in creating rain days. But they are very important in the production of precipitation in the area. Therefore, their absence will decrease the amount of rainfall to their west and, in return, expand the dry climates of their west and east.     

Natural Heritage value of Xinjiang Tianshan and global comparative analysis

Xinjiang Tianshan is a serial natural property that has been nominated for World Heritage status.This paper presents a systematically comprehensive and comparative analysis of the heritage resources of Xinjiang Tianshan according to the World Heritage criteria.Its biological,ecological and aesthetic values,which are of global importance, are documented.It is concluded that Xinjiang Tianshan meets the world heritage criteria(vii)and (ix).Xinjiang Tianshan is compared with other mountain world heritage sites,mountains in Central Asia,the Tianshan Mountains outside China,and with the protected areas of the Tianshan Mountains on the Tentative List for World Heritage Sites,so as to provide objective data for the world heritage application.