The first and third asymptotic distributions of extremes as applied to the seismic source regions of India and adjacent areas

The seismic source regions are identified on the basis of spatial and temporal distributions of shocks (1900–1989), recurrence relations and the tectonic architecture of the Indian subcontinent and adjoining areas. The probable occurrence of the maximum magnitude earthquake is estimated using the theory of extreme values of Gumbel. The parameters of the first and third asymptotic distributions of extremes and their uncertainty values are computed for the seven identified seismic source regions of India and adjacent areas. The third-type distribution curve is preferable to the first type in all the regions, as revealed by the χ² test. The results of the third asymptotic distribution indicate the upper bound to earthquake magnitude w is equal to 8.94 ± 0.21 for Assam, 8.56 ± 0.29 for Bihar-Nepal, 8.43 ± 0.10 for Kangra, 8.97 ± 0.27 for Hindukush, 7.61 ± 0.24 for Pakistan-Cutch, 7.34 ± 0.12 for Koyna and 8.98 ± 0.27 for Andaman Sea seismic source regions. The predicted most probable largest earthquake magnitude is computed for return periods of 10, 20, 50, 75 and 100 yr in each source region.     

职业足球比赛期间球场周边扒窃犯罪的空间分布特征研究——以英国维拉球场为例

现阶段,关于足球比赛等体育活动影响周边区域犯罪风险的研究主要关注于一般性验证,而缺少对比赛期间不同时间范围内犯罪风险的态势分析及相关空间影响因素的研究。本文以英国伯明翰市的维拉公园球场为例开展实证研究,对2005—2009年赛季的104场职业足球比赛在比赛日和对照日、开赛前和开赛后等不同时间范围内球场周边3 km区域内发生的扒窃类案件的空间分布特征进行了分析,并利用负二项回归模型研究了相应案件的空间影响要素。结果表明:维拉公园球场周边区域内比赛日期间的扒窃案件发案量要明显高于对照日,而在具体的时间分布上,比赛日开赛时间前2小时到开赛后1小时内发生的扒窃案件显著偏多,并且案件在比赛日和对照日、比赛日的开赛前和开赛后期间的空间分布特征明显不同;回归分析结果显示,比赛日期间餐饮消费类场所的扒窃案件风险较为突出,且高于对照日,而对照日期间的扒窃案件风险则主要集中于休闲娱乐等常规性犯罪热点场所;在比赛日的开赛前,扒窃案件风险主要分布于一些人群聚集的公共场所,而在开赛后则主要集中于餐饮类场所,且随着比赛的开始扒窃案件的风险有转移的趋势。本研究对开展基于大数据分析的大型体育活动的犯罪风险精准防控具有...     

A Review of “Tectonic Faults: Agents of Change on a Dynamic Earth”

The fluvial system represents a nested hierarchy that reflects the relationship among different spatial and temporal scales. Within the hierarchy, larger scale variables influence the characteristics of the next lower nested scale. Ecoregions represent one of the largest scales in the fluvial hierarchy and are defined by recurring patterns of geology, climate, land use, soils, and potential natural vegetation. Watersheds, the next largest scale, are often nested into a single ecoregion and therefore have properties that are indicative of a given ecoregion. Differences in watershed morphology (relief, drainage density, circularity ratio, relief ratio, and ruggedness number) were evaluated among three ecoregions in eastern Oklahoma: Ozark Highlands, Boston Mountains, and Ouachita Mountains. These ecoregions were selected because of their high-quality stream resources and diverse aquatic communities and are of special management interest to the Oklahoma Department of Wildlife Conservation. One hundred thirty-four watersheds in first- through fourth-order streams were compared. Using a nonparametric, two-factor analysis of variance (α= 0.05) we concluded that the relief, drainage density, relief ratio, and ruggedness number all changed among ecoregion and stream order, whereas circularity ratio only changed with stream order. Our study shows that ecoregions can be used as a broad-scale framework for watershed management.     

2005~2015年中国高校科研人才的时空变化及影响因素分析

基于2005~2015年全国统计年鉴数据,采用统计地图法和空间自相关分析,分析中国高校科研人才的时空分布特征（不包括港澳台数据）,并采用面板负二项回归模型,识别高校科研人才空间分布的决定因素。研究结果表明:①中国的高校科研人才分布表现出较强的空间不均衡性,总体趋势为东南密集,西北稀疏,科研人才高度集中在北京、天津、上海;②高校科研人才分布具有一定的空间集聚特征,其热点地区为北京、天津、上海和江苏等沿海省市,冷点地区集中分布在广大的西部地区和黑龙江省。2005~2015年,高级职称人才的空间集聚程度有所减弱,而中初级职称科研人才的空间集聚程度有所加强;③人才政策、高等教育规模和层次、公共服务水平和信息化水平是所有高校科研人才空间分布的主要影响因素。从职称差异的角度来看,薪酬和失业率等经济因素仅对初级职称科研人才的分布有影响,医疗、文化公共服务水平和人才政策仅对中高级职称科研人才的分布有影响,高等教育的规模与层次对各种职称人才的分布均有影响;从地区差异的角度来看,西部地区高校科研人才受到经济因素影响更为明显,而中东部高校科研人才受到公共服务水平影响的更为明显。     

Stress transfer relations among the earthquakes that occurred in Kerman province, southern Iran since 1981

We explore the possible stress triggering relationship of the   M ≥ 6.4  earthquakes that occurred in Kerman Province, southern Iran since 1981. We calculated stress changes due to both coseismic sudden movement in the upper crust and the time-dependent viscous relaxation of the lower crust and/or upper mantle following the event. Four events of   M ≥ 6.4  occurred between 1981 and 2005, on and close to the Gowk fault, show a clear Coulomb stress load to failure relationship. The  2003 M = 6.5  Bam earthquake, however, which occurred approximately 95 km SW of the closest Gowk event, shows a very weak stress relation to preceding earthquakes. The coseismic static stress change at the hypocentre of the Bam earthquake is quite small (∼0.006 bars). The time-dependent post-seismic stress change could be 26 times larger or 7 times lower than that of coseismic static stress alone depending on the choice of viscoelastic crustal model and the effective coefficient of friction. Given the uncertainties in the viscoelastic earth models and the effective coefficient of friction, we cannot confidently conclude that the 2003 Bam event was brought closer to failure through coseismic or post-seismic stress loading. Interestingly, the southern Gowk segment with a similar strike to that of the Bam fault, experienced a stress load of up to 8.3 bars between 1981 and 2003, and is yet to have a damaging earthquake.     

中国外资星级宾馆区位研究

本文研究了外资星级宾馆的地理分布与区位。整体而言,外资星级饭店集聚在少数省区和城市,尤其是珠三角、长三角以及京津冀地区。基于服务业外资区位理论,本文采用负二项回归模型检验了追随国外客户、市场规模、集聚经济、对外经济联系及基础设施等对外资星级宾馆区位选择的影响。统计分析表明外资星级宾馆在区位选择上,倾向于追随国外客户在中国布局,同时通过与国内宾馆的共聚而获得成本节约与竞争力提升。城市的对外联系强化涉外市场潜力,进一步吸引外资星级宾馆;而交通通讯基础设施强化宾馆业集聚经济,引导外资星级宾馆的区位选择。     

长三角地区专精特新“小巨人”企业空间分布及影响因素研究

The spatial distribution pattern and causes are of great significance to promote the transformation and development of SMEs, as the cultivation of specialized and sophisticated “Little Giant” Enterprises is a key element of the special action of “strengthening the weakness in the industrial and supply chains”. Based on the list of three batches of “Little Giant”Enterprises recognized by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, using Ripley's K function, kernel density analysis, and spatial hotspot clustering to explore the spatial distribution and clustering characteristics of “Little Giant” Enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta. Further, a negative binomial regression model was used to identify the factors affecting the spatial distribution of “Little Giant” Enterprises by combining geospatial data and socioeconomic statistics. The conclusions are drawn as follows: (1) The industry distribution of “Little Giant” Enterprises in the study region mainly cluster in manufacturing industries, followed by scientific research and technology service industries, and the “Little Giant” Enterprises in technology-intensive manufacturing industries and knowledge-intensive service industries cluster in the central cities. (2) At different distance scales, the agglomeration intensity of “Little Giant” Enterprises shows obvious “bimodal” characteristics, and the corresponding agglomeration scale is equivalent to the “one-hour commuting circle” in the metropolitan area, thus it has formed the “two cores and multiple poles” local clustering characteristics with Shanghai as the main core, Ningbo as the secondary core, provincial capital cities and some coastal and riverine cities as the poles, and the “one axis, two belts and three circles” overall spatial distribution pattern with the riverine and coastal metropolitan regions as the hotspot area. (3) From the spatial clustering mechanism of “Little Giant” Enterprises, traffic accessibility, land use and cost, geography location, external support, industrial foundation, scientific research and innovation conditions are the main factors affecting the spatial distribution of “Little Giant” Enterprises. (4) The factors, which influence the spatial agglomeration of \"Little Giant\" Enterprises in high-tech and strategic focus manufacturing industries, research and information technology service industries, are heterogeneous. In terms of land use and cost, the former shows a distribution trend of “the higher industrial land price but closer, the higher commercial land price then farther away”, while the latter is not sensitive to commercial land price; in terms of external support conditions, they only significantly affect the spatial distribution of the former; in terms of industrial development foundation, logistics level only plays a significant role in the distribution of the latter; in terms of research and innovation conditions, the former is more inclined to human capital agglomeration, while the latter is more inclined to research institutions.     

上海大都市区软件产业空间集聚与郊区化

随着信息经济发展壮大,软件产业日益成为城市经济的新引擎,其空间区位对城市空间结构影响不断加深.文章以上海市软件企业名录为数据基础,运用GIS 技术、社会网络分析等方法,探讨了上海大都市区软件产业的空间分布、演变特征及影响因素.研究发现,2002 年及2008年上海软件产业空间分布的集聚化特征明显,但产业集聚中心位置发生了从中心城区转向郊区的偏移.6 年间,软件企业的空间格局呈现出\"大都市区尺度上的扩散以及园区尺度的再集聚\"的时空特征.不同类型企业空间集聚与扩散的特征不同,以嵌入式软件企业为主的中小企业呈现出向远郊区扩散的特征.在影响因素的分析上,负二项回归的结果表明交通通达性、政府政策影响下的科技园区建设、产业历史基础对软件企业的区位选择具有显著影响.内外资企业区位影响因素的比较分析发现,交通通达性、自然环境及办公楼条件对外资企业区位影响较大,内资企业对政府政策更为敏感.     

1840年以来我国鼠疫的时空分布规律

利用 GIS空间统计工具分析了中国鼠疫疫源地的分布状况 ,结果表明我国鼠疫疫源地明显呈现南、北两个不连续的带状分布 ,北方鼠疫疫源地类型多 ,面积大 ;南方鼠疫疫源地类型少 ,面积小 ,并计算出我国鼠疫疫源地的面积为 1 2 6万 km2 。在此基础上 ,利用我国人间鼠疫流行资料 ,分析了鼠疫空间分布规律。两者的对比表明 ,鼠疫病区面积在鼠疫疫源地基础上扩大一倍。由于受自然条件、人类社会经济因素和鼠疫流行规律影响 ,南方鼠疫病区在鼠疫疫源地的基础上扩展范围比北方明显。最后作者利用历史病情资料从 1 840～ 1 990按十年段 ,重建了1 50年来中国鼠疫流行扩散简史。     

“雷霆扫毒”对贩卖毒品犯罪的影响及后续时空分布变化——以ZG市主城区为例

贩卖毒品是实现毒品犯罪经济利益的重要环节,是危害最为严重的毒品犯罪类型之一。现有研究主要关注毒品犯罪与建成环境之间的关系,没有顾及打击后贩卖毒品犯罪空间转移现象以及影响因素的变化。本文基于日常活动理论、犯罪模式理论和社会解组理论,以中国ZG市主城区为例,融合多源时空数据,分别对2013年8月开始的“雷霆扫毒”前后的贩卖毒品犯罪构建负二项回归模型,分析微观尺度下半公共空间、室外公共空间和室内私人空间对贩卖毒品犯罪影响的变化。研究发现“雷霆扫毒”行动后：① 贩卖毒品犯罪案件数量显著下降;② 半公共空间对贩卖毒品犯罪的影响作用减弱;③ 室外公共空间对贩卖毒品犯罪影响作用增强,室内私人空间对贩卖毒品犯罪的影响上升。结果表明：“雷霆扫毒”专项行动开展后一年,贩卖毒品犯罪的“主阵地”发生变化,由城市半公共空间逐渐向室外公共空间和室内私人空间转移。特别的是,“雷霆扫毒”对大毒枭及贩毒团伙的打击成效突出,促使2014年贩毒案件大幅度下降,实现了专项行动开展的目的。后续一系列专项行动进一步提升了对贩卖毒品犯罪的发现和查处能力,显示出专项行动对打击隐性犯罪的明显效果。研究表明公安执法部门必须对毒品贩卖犯罪进行持续的、有针对性的打击,对发生地的变动进行定期的监控,不能一蹴而就。     

1840年以来我国鼠疫的时空分布规律

利用GIS空间统计工具分析了中国鼠疫疫源地的分布状况,结果表明我国鼠疫疫源地明显呈现南、北两个不连续的带状分布,北方鼠疫疫源地类型多,面积大;南方鼠疫疫源地类型少,面积小,并计算出我国鼠疫疫源地的面积为126万km²。在此基础上,利用我国人间鼠疫流行资料,分析了鼠疫空间分布规律。两者的对比表明,鼠疫病区面积在鼠疫疫源地基础上扩大一倍。由于受自然条件、人类社会经济因素和鼠疫流行规律影响,南方鼠疫病区在鼠疫疫源地的基础上扩展范围比北方明显。最后作者利用历史病情资料从1840～1990按十年段,重建了150年来中国鼠疫流行扩散简史。     

深圳服装业空间演化及影响因素分析

基于服装企业点状数据,采用核密度、标准差椭圆、热点探测和Ripley's K函数相结合的点模式空间分析方法,对比研究了1995、2000、2005和2010年深圳服装企业空间分布特征,进而利用负二项回归模型检验主要区位的影响因素,结果表明：深圳服装业随时间演变,核密度高值区域日渐明朗,整体呈现集中分布态势,标准差椭圆面积有所收缩,热点区域在扩大,西部热点区倾向北移,中部热点区得到进一步强化,集聚特征呈现“先增后减”趋势,集聚范围逐年扩大;负二项回归结果表明：产业集聚、区域协作和制度因素对服装业空间演化有着显著影响,其中产业集聚和制度因素影响逐渐加强,而区域协作在城市产业发展中寻求着空间动态平衡。深圳服装业空间演化惯性效应突出,因企业对集聚经济内在需求和区位环境等外部需求产生的路径依赖,约束了产业后续空间演化的各项特征。