Three-dimensional seismic structure beneath the Australasian region from refracted wave observations

The earthquakes in the seismicity belt extending through Indonesia, New Guinea, Vanuatu and Fiji to the Tonga–Kermadec subduction zone recorded at the 65 portable broad-band stations deployed during the Skippy experiment from 1993–1996 provide good coverage of the lithosphere and mantle under the Australian continent, Coral Sea and Tasman Sea.
The variation in structure in the upper part of the mantle is characterized by deter-mining a suite of 1-D structures from stacked record sections utilizing clear P and S arrivals, prepared for all propagation paths lying within a 10° azimuth band. The azimuth of these bands is rotated by 20° steps with four parallel corridors for each azimuth. This gives 26 separate azimuthal corridors for which 15 independent 1-D seismic velocity structures have been derived, which show significant variation in P and S structure.
The set of 1-D structures is combined to produce a 3-D representation by projecting the velocity values along the ray path using a turning point approximation and stacking into 3-D cells (5° by 50 km in depth). Even though this procedure will tend to underestimate wave-speed perturbations, S -velocity deviations from the ak135 reference model exceed 6 per cent in the lithosphere.
In the uppermost mantle the results display complex features and very high S -wave speeds beneath the Precambrian shields with a significant low-velocity zone beneath. High velocities are also found towards the base of the transition zone, with high S -wave speeds beneath the continent and high P -wave speeds beneath the ocean. The wave-speed patterns agree well with independent surface wave studies and delay time tomography studies in the zones of common coverage.     

Spatial seismicity variations along convergent plate boundaries

Summary. Five major convergent plate boundaries (South America, Izu–Bonin–Marianas, New Hebrides, Tonga–Kermadec and Indonesia) show strong variations in levels of background seismicity on scales ranging from tens to thousands of kilometres. These variations were tested using two statistical approaches and we conclude that small earthquakes are not distributed randomly along these zones.
Two types of large-scale seismicity variations (termed first order) were recognized. First, regions with dimensions on the order of 100 km with extremely high seismicity levels (first-order actives). One such region was recognized in each of the zones studied. Second, large-scale (500 to several thousand kilometres) differences in the level of background seismicity along a given plate boundary. Regions with consistent levels of background seismicity are termed first-order segments.
We examined each first-order segment for smaller scale variations. Ten regions ranging in length from 40 to 170 km with anomalously high seismicity levels were recognized. Fifty-three regions ranging in length from 25 to 355 km were found to have anomalously low seismicity levels. Thus, areas with anomalously high levels of activity are rare in subduction zones.
These observations indicate that background seismicity in subduction zones is not randomly distributed along the strike of the zones. It seems likely that the observed variations reflect tectonic differences. In fact, many of the seismicity variations which we observed appear to be spatially related to features on the seafloor or on the overriding plate. If this is so, then they may provide a powerful tool for characterizing subduction zones and understanding the mechanisms of earthquake generation.     

Basement faulting and the focal depths of the larger earthquakes in the Zagros mountains (Iran)

Summary. The present day seismicity of the Zagros seems to occur on high angle reverse faults distributed across the whole width of the belt. It does not indicate activity on a single inclined thrust surface and there do not seem to have been any well located events at intermediate depths. Modelling of the long period teleseismic body waves of seven large earthquakes presented here shows their focal depths to be in the range 8–15 km. This is thought to indicate faulting in the uppermost basement beneath the sedimentary cover, though the absence of published seismic refraction results renders the sediment thickness uncertain. Faulting of this type and depth may occur on inherited normal faults which have subsequently been reactivated as thrusts. Such reactivation allows considerable shortening to take place in the early stages of continental collision without the subduction or excessive thickening of continental crust.     

A catalogue of seismicity in Greece and adjacent areas

Summary. A new earthquake catalogue for Greece has been formed to cover the instrumental period 1901–78, in particular 605 earthquakes for the period 1917–63 inclusive are relocated using first arrival data from the International Seismological Summary. These relocations incorporate macro-seismically and other well-controlled master events into an ensuing joint epicentre determination technique. The largest annual average shift is 165 km for 78 earthquakes during the decade after 1917, decreasing to 17 km for the later years 1957–63. Magnitudes are redetermined mainly using readings from the Swedish network and Uppsala since as early as 1908. Catalogue completeness exists for magnitudes around 5.5 for at least the last 60 years, but magnitudes of about 4.7 are completely reported only during the most recent 15 years.
The new epicentral positions lead to a better delineation of the seismic zones than has previously been achieved. The majority of shallow earthquakes are contained in a belt parallel to the Hellenic Arc which extends north into Albania, in the south-east the epicentral locations give a more diffuse extension of this zone into the west coast of Turkey. Depths of intermediate earthquakes along the Hellenic Arc tend to relocate to shallower depths, in the south-west part of Crete no earthquake focus deeper than 100 km is found, although in the south-eastern section of the arc a tendency to increased depths is observed. A second zone starts at Leukas Island in the west and extends through central Greece to near Volos on the east coast, where it divides into two branches, which are less well defined, but which eventually join the seismicity of western Turkey. A third zone follows the Saronikos and Corinth gulfs.     

Seismic hazard in central southern Africa

Seismic hazard maps of central-southern Africa where hazard has been expressed in terms of peak ground acceleration for an annual probability in excess of 10^-1 show relatively high values that distinguish the seismic hazard potential of the Deka fault zone, the mid-Zambezi basin-Luangwa rift and western central Mozambique. In areas such as central-southern Africa where little is known about the geology of the region and the fault systems have not been fully mapped, seismic hazard potential may be estimated from seismicity and broad-scale fault features. For this region, such potential is based on earthquake magnitude M_s ≥ 6. Events of such magnitude have recently occurred in the mid-Zambezi basin, southern Zimbabwe and western-central Mozambique. This paper follows the conventional probabilistic hazard analysis procedure, defining seismic source zones from seismicity based on instrumental records from a cataloque that spans a period of 83 years. Geological and geomorphological features in the region are described on the mesoscale and are correlated with the seismicity as broad fault zones. The scarcity of strong-motion accelerogram data necessitated the formulation of attenuation values based on random vibration theory (RVT).     

Spatial Mismatch and Determinants of Foreign and Domestic Information and Communication Technology Firms in Urban China

Studies on foreign direct investment locations in China have been conducted mainly at interregional and interprovincial scales, and little attention has been paid to the intraurban scale where location decisions of foreign firms can differ from domestic firms. This article explores the intraurban locations of information and communication technology (ICT) firms in Suzhou, a city experiencing rapid globalization. We have found that the distribution of ICT firms in Suzhou exhibits distinctive spatial patterns characterized by a geographically based, institutionally created spatial mismatch between foreign and domestic firms. Foreign firms are concentrated in national-level development zones—China–Singapore Suzhou Industrial Park in the east and Suzhou New and Hi-Tech District in the west—whereas domestic firms tend to agglomerate in the inner city and the provincial-level development zone in the north. Poisson and negative binomial analyses further reveal that the locations of foreign firms are strongly correlated to development zones, and the agglomeration economies derived from the stock of foreign investment rather than domestic firms. The case of Suzhou highlights the challenges that Chinese cities face in industrial upgrading and technological development through embedding transnational corporations.     

Upper-crustal structure of the Benevento area (southern Italy): fault heterogeneities and potential for large earthquakes

The Benevento region is part of the southern Apennines seismogenic belt, which experienced large destructive seismic events both in historical and in recent times. The study area lies at the northern end of the Irpinia fault, which ruptured in 1980 with a M_s = 6.9 normal faulting event, which caused about 3000 casualties. The aims of this paper are to image lateral heterogeneities in the upper crust of the Benevento region, and to try to identify the fault segments that are expected to generate such large earthquakes. This work is motivated by the recognition that lithological heterogeneities along major fault zones, inferred from velocity anomalies, reflect the presence of fault patches that behave differently during large rupture episodes. In this paper, we define the crustal structure of the Benevento region by using the background seismicity recorded during 1991 and 1992 by a local seismic array. These data offer a unique opportunity to investigate the presence of structural discontinuities of a major seismogenic zone before the occurrence of the next large earthquake. The main result that we obtained is the delineation of two NW-trending high-velocity zones (HVZs) in the upper crust beneath the Matese limestone massif. These high velocities are interpreted as high-strength regions that extend for 30-40 km down to at least 12 km depth. The correspondence of these HVZs with the maximum intensity regions of historical earthquakes (1688 AD, 1805 AD) suggests that these anomalies delineate the extent of two fault segments of the southern Apenninic belt capable of generating M = 6.5⁻⁷ earthquakes. The lateral offset observed between the two segments from tomographic results and isoseismal areas is possibly related to transverse right-lateral faults.     

A systematic test of time-to-failure analysis

Time-to-failure analysis is a technique for predicting earthquakes in which a failure function is fit to a time-series of accumulated Benioff strain. Benioff strain is computed from regional seismicity in areas that may produce a large earthquake. We have tested the technique by fitting two functions, a power law proposed by Bufe & Varnes (1993) and a log-periodic function proposed by Sornette & Sammis (1995). We compared predictions from the two time-to-failure models to observed activity and to predicted levels of activity based upon the Poisson model. Likelihood ratios show that the most successful model is Poisson, with the simple Poisson model four times as likely to be correct as the best time-to-failure model. The best time-failure model is a blend of 90 per cent Poisson and 10 per cent log-periodic predictions. We tested the accuracy of the error estimates produced by the standard least-squares fitter and found greater accuracy for fits of the simple power law than for fits of the more complicated log-periodic function. The least-squares fitter underestimates the true error in time-to-failure functions because the error estimates are based upon linearized versions of the functions being fitted.     

基于空间滤波方法的中国省际人口迁移驱动因素

人口迁移数据中往往存在较强的网络自相关性,以往基于最小二乘估计的重力模型与迁移数据的拟合度较低,而改进后的泊松重力模型仍存在过度离散的缺陷,以上问题均导致既有人口迁移模型中的估计偏差。本文构建了特征向量空间滤波（ESF）负二项重力模型,基于2015年全国1%人口抽样调查数据,研究2010-2015年中国省际人口迁移的驱动因素。结果表明：① 省际人口迁移流间存在显著的空间溢出效应,ESF能有效地提取数据中的网络自相关性以降低模型的估计偏差,排序在前1.4%的特征向量即可提取较强的网络自相关信息。② 省际人口迁移流之间存在明显的过度离散现象,考虑到数据离散的负二项重力模型更适用于人口迁移驱动因素的估计。③ 网络自相关性会导致模型对距离相关变量估计的上偏与大部分非距离变量估计的下偏,修正后的模型揭示出以下驱动因素：区域人口特征、社会网络、经济发展、教育水平等因素是引发省际人口迁移的重要原因,而居住环境与公路网络等因素也逐渐成为影响人口迁移重要的“拉力”因素。④ 与既有研究相比,社会网络因素(迁移存量、流动链指数)对人口迁移的影响日益增强,而空间距离对人口迁移的影响进一步呈现弱化趋势。     

Teleseismic delay-time tomography of the upper mantle beneath southeastern India: imprint of Indo–Antarctica rifting

A 3-D P -velocity map of the crust and upper mantle beneath the southeastern part of India has been reconstructed through the inversion of teleseismic traveltimes. Salient geological features in the study region include the Archean Dharwar Craton and Eastern Ghat metamorphic belt (EGMB), and the Proterozoic Cuddapah and Godavari basins. The Krishna–Godavari basin, on the eastern coastal margin, evolved in response to the Indo–Antarctica breakup. A 24-station temporary network provided 1161 traveltimes, which were used to model 3-D P -velocity variation. The velocity model accounts of 80 per cent of the observed data variance. The velocity picture to a depth of 120 km shows two patterns: a high velocity beneath the interior domain (Dharwar craton and Cuddapah basin), and a lower velocity beneath the eastern margin region (EGMB and coastal basin). Across the array velocity variations of 7–10 per cent in the crust (0–40 km) and 3–5 per cent in the uppermost mantle (40–120 km) are observed. At deeper levels (120–210 km) the upper-mantle velocity differences are insignificant among different geological units. The presence of such a low velocity along the eastern margin suggests significantly thin lithosphere (<100 km) beneath it compared to a thick lithosphere (>200 km) beneath the eastern Dharwar craton. Such lithospheric thinning could be a consequence of Indo–Antarctica break-up.     

Seismicity and seismic gap in the Lesser Antilles arc and earthquake hazard in Guadeloupe

Summary. A seismic study of the Lesser Antilles arc has been carried out, first for the period 1950–1978, for which we can use local seismic networks to draw maps of instrumental seismicity, then for the period 1530–1950, for which we have catalogues of felt earthquakes. The striking feature of the spatial distribution of foci is the cluster of epicentres in the northern half of the arc; all large earthquakes ( M > 7.5) are located north of 14° latitude. Seismicity cross-sections through the arc show a variable dipping subduction zone along the arc; the deep seismic zone is steeper in the centre of the arc than on the extremity.
The time-space diagram for historical seismicity, and the evidence of a seismic gap at the east of Guadeloupe lead us to consider the northern half arc as a likely site for a large earthquake in the near future.
The seismic slip rate calculated from all major earthquakes since 1530 is of much greater value than that obtained from recent plate tectonic models, suggesting that the recurrence rate of earthquakes is more than many hundreds of years with a possible aseismic creep.     

A test of the precursory accelerating moment release model on some recent New Zealand earthquakes

The proposal that the moment release rate increases in a systematic way in a large region around a forthcoming large earthquake is tested using three recent, large New Zealand events. The three events, 1993–1995, magnitudes 6.7–7.0, occurred in varied tectonic settings. For all three events, a circular precursory region can be found such that the moment release rate of the included seismicity is modelled significantly better by the proposed accelerating model than by a linear moment release model, although in one case the result is dubious. The 'best' such regions have radii from 122 to 167 km, roughly in accord with previous observations world-wide, but are offset by 50–60 km from the associated main shock epicentre. A grid-search procedure is used to test whether these three earthquakes could have been forecast using the accelerating moment release model. For two of the earthquakes the result is positive in terms of location, but the main shock times are only loosely constrained.     

Seismic risk in southern Europe through to India examined using Gumbel's third distribution of extreme values

Summary. A technique is described for the analysis of seismicity using Gumbel's third asymptotic distribution of extreme values. Seismicity of southern Europe through to India, nominally for the period 1900–74, is subdivided in a cellular manner, without recourse to tectonic discrimination between regions, and a covariance analysis on the three parameters of Gumbel's distribution is performed for each cell of seismicity. The results indicate that the upper bound to the magnitude of earthquake occurrence is often uncertain although it is discernible, while curvature of the earthquake occurrence distributions is usually established. Uncertainties in the forecasts of largest earthquakes, with a return period of 75 yr, are distinctly improved by taking into account the large and negative covariance which is measured between the curvature and upper bound to earthquake magnitude for the observed seismicity. These results are then used to map seismic risk for southern Europe through to India.     

Velocity structure of upper-mantle transition zones beneath central eurasia from seismic inversion using genetic algorithms

We present velocity constraints for the upper-mantle transition zones beneath Central Siberia based on observations of the 1982 RIFT Deep Seismic Sounding (DSS) profile. The data consist of seismic recordings of a nuclear explosion in north-western Siberia along a 2600 km long seismic profile extending from the Yamal Peninsula to Lake Baikal. We invert seismic data from the mantle transition zones using a non-linear inversion scheme using a genetic algorithm for optimization and the WKBJ method to compute the synthetic seismograms. A statistical error analysis using a graph-binning technique was performed to provide uncertainty values in the velocity models.
Our best model for the upper-mantle velocity discontinuity near 410 km depth has a two-stage velocity-gradient structure, with velocities increasing from 8.70–9.25 km s⁻¹ over a depth range of 400–415 km, a gradient of 0.0433 s⁻¹, and from 9.25–9.60 km s⁻¹ over a depth range of 415–435 km, a gradient of 0.0175 s⁻¹. This derived model is consistent with other seismological observations and mineral-physics models. The model for the velocity discontinuity near 660 km depth is simple, sharp and includes velocities increasing from 10.15 km s⁻¹ at 655 km depth to 10.70 km s⁻¹ at 660 km depth, a gradient of 0.055 s⁻¹.     

Structural development of Neogene basins in western Greece

Abstract An account is given of the structural setting of the various Neogene sedimentary basins of western Greece. Compressional basins are attributable to foreland loading by the Alpine fold and thrust belt of the Outer Hellenides, and to active subduction in the adjacent western Hellenic arc. Late extensional basins are related to N-S crustal extension in the Aegean marginal basin and, in western Greece, are superimposed on the earlier compressional structures. The local seismicity provides evidence that the main E-W-trending basin-bounding faults of the extensional basins form a linked system that includes NW-SE- and NE-SW-trending transfer zones of transtension. The transfer zones are themselves the sites of small extensional basins.     

New seismogenic source and deep structures revealed by the 1999 Chia-yi earthquake sequence in southwestern Taiwan

In a tectonically active setting large earthquakes are always threats; however, they may also be useful in elucidating the subsurface geology. Instrumentally recorded seismicity is, therefore, widely utilized to extend our knowledge into the deeper crust, especially where basement is involved. It is because the earthquakes are triggered by underground stress changes that usually corresponding to the framework of geological structures. Hidden faults, therefore, can be recognized and their extension as well as orientation can be estimated. Both above are of relevance for assessment on seismic hazard of a region, since the active faults are supposed to be re-activated and cause large earthquakes. In this study, we analysed the 1999 October 22 earthquake sequence that occurred in southwestern Taiwan. Two major seismicity clusters were identified with spatial distribution between depths of 10 and 16 km. One cluster is nearly vertical and striking 032°, corresponding to the strike-slip Meishan fault (MSF) that generated the 1906 surface rupture. Another cluster strikes 190° and dips 64° to the west, which is interpreted as west-vergent reverse fault, in contrast to previous expectation of east vergence. Our analysis of the focal solutions of all the larger earthquakes in the 1999 sequence with the 3-D distribution of all the earthquakes over the period 1990–2004 allows us reinterpret the structural framework and suggest previously unreognized seismogenic sources in this area. We accordingly suggest: (1) multiple detachment faults are present in southwestern Taiwan coastal plain and (2) additional seismogenic sources consist of tear faults and backthrust faults in addition to sources associated with west-vergent fold-and-thrust belt.     

Normal faulting, extension and uplift in the outer thrust belt of the central Apennines (Italy): role of the Caramanico fault

The outer Adriatic zones of the central Apennines (Italy) provide good conditions for analysing geometry and kinematics of the earliest normal faults, superposed onto the thrust belt. During the latest stages of thrusting onto the Adriatic foreland (late Pliocene–early Pleistocene), the outermost imbricates of the thrust belt were subjected to normal faulting, coeval with differential uplift. Crosscutting normal faults get younger towards the foreland, thus the easternmost normal faults record the latest stages of fault propagation and growth. The Caramanico fault, on the western flank of Mt. Maiella, is the largest outcropping normal fault of the outer zones. This high‐angle fault (dip > 70°) has cumulative offsets ≤ €4.2 km, and propagated with slip rates of 2.6 mm/year in a short time interval (≤ 1.6 Ma), concomitant with intense uplift of Mt. Maiella. In contrast with normal faults in a more internal position, the Caramanico fault maintains a high‐angle planar geometry, and does not reach the major basal detachment of the thrust belt. Thus the fault did not cause large extensional displacements; its major role was rather to accommodate ongoing components of vertical uplift of the overthickened thrust wedge. Downfaulting of the thrust belt on the western flank of Mt. Maiella represents the youngest end member of the same processes that have operated since 11 Ma in the Tyrrhenian hinterland, where large extensional strains and crustal thinning of the orogenic belt were achieved by long‐lasting activity of listric normal faults detached at lower crustal depths.     

Implementing Moran eigenvector spatial filtering for massively large georeferenced datasets

Moran eigenvector spatial filtering (MESF) furnishes an alternative method to account for spatial autocorrelation in linear regression specifications describing georeferenced data, although spatial auto-models also are widely used. The utility of this MESF methodology is even more impressive for the non-Gaussian models because its flexible structure enables it to be easily applied to generalized linear models, which include Poisson, binomial, and negative binomial regression. However, the implementation of MESF can be computationally challenging, especially when the number of geographic units, n, is large, or massive, such as with a remotely sensed image. This intensive computation aspect has been a drawback to the use of MESF, particularly for analyzing a remotely sensed image, which can easily contain millions of pixels. Motivated by Curry, this paper proposes an approximation approach to constructing eigenvector spatial filters (ESFs) for a large spatial tessellation. This approximation is based on a divide-and-conquer approach. That is, it constructs ESFs separately for each sub-region, and then combines the resulting ESFs across an entire remotely sensed image. This paper, employing selected specimen remotely sensed images, demonstrates that the proposed technique provides a computationally efficient and successful approach to implement MESF for large or massive spatial tessellations.     

Three-dimensional VP and VP /VS models of the upper crust in the Friuli area (northeastern Italy)

3-D images of P velocity and P - to S -velocity ratio have been produced for the upper crust of the Friuli area (northeastern Italy) using local earthquake tomography. The data consist of 2565 P and 930 S arrival times of high quality. The best-fitting V _P and V _P / V _S 1-D models were computed before the 3-D inversion. V _P was measured on two rock samples representative of the investigated upper layers of the Friuli crust. The tomographic V _P model was used for modelling the gravity anomalies, by converting the velocity values into densities along three vertical cross-sections. The computed gravity anomalies were optimized with respect to the observed gravity anomalies. The crust investigated is characterized by sharp lateral and deep V _P and V _P / V _S anomalies that are associated with the complex geological structure. High V _P / V _S values are associated with highly fractured zones related to the main faulting pattern. The relocated seismicity is generally associated with sharp variations in the V _P / V _S anomalies. The V _P images show a high-velocity body below 6 km depth in the central part of the Friuli area, marked also by strong V _P / V _S heterogeneities, and this is interpreted as a tectonic wedge. Comparison with the distribution of earthquakes supports the hypothesis that the tectonic wedge controls most of the seismicity and can be considered to be the main seismogenic zone in the Friuli area.     

Study of the properties of seismicity in the Mexico region

Summary. New statistics of seismic properties are investigated in space and time for the Mexico region. They are main events seismicity (number of earthquakes with aftershocks excluded), swarming property, average magnitude (another way to study the slope of the recurrence time law), maximum magnitude, average focal depth and comparative efficiency of earthquakes in surface and body waves generation, known as creepex .
Quite a number of anomalies of the spatial distributions of the statistics were found. Some of them have evident geophysical meaning, the explanation of others is rather controversial, and some others have no interpretation as yet. The most interesting phenomena are as follows: (1) The average focal depth distribution indicates a different trend for the Benioff zone west of approximately 96°W longitude, due north which fits the position of the Neovolcanic belt. (2) Creepex clearly distinguishes different tectonic areas, i.e. subduction zones (with low values), transform faults (medium) and ridges (high). (3) High swarming is related to places with young sedimentary geology.
The time pattern of those properties, in places of strong earthquakes, is quite consistent and includes a phase of concentration of stress indicated by quiescence in average and maximum magnitude and main events seismicity, and also more efficient body wave generation and anomalous swarming. This phase is followed by an apparent weakening of the material indicated by a igher efficiency in surface wave generation.