The first and third asymptotic distributions of extremes as applied to the seismic source regions of India and adjacent areas

The seismic source regions are identified on the basis of spatial and temporal distributions of shocks (1900–1989), recurrence relations and the tectonic architecture of the Indian subcontinent and adjoining areas. The probable occurrence of the maximum magnitude earthquake is estimated using the theory of extreme values of Gumbel. The parameters of the first and third asymptotic distributions of extremes and their uncertainty values are computed for the seven identified seismic source regions of India and adjacent areas. The third-type distribution curve is preferable to the first type in all the regions, as revealed by the χ² test. The results of the third asymptotic distribution indicate the upper bound to earthquake magnitude w is equal to 8.94 ± 0.21 for Assam, 8.56 ± 0.29 for Bihar-Nepal, 8.43 ± 0.10 for Kangra, 8.97 ± 0.27 for Hindukush, 7.61 ± 0.24 for Pakistan-Cutch, 7.34 ± 0.12 for Koyna and 8.98 ± 0.27 for Andaman Sea seismic source regions. The predicted most probable largest earthquake magnitude is computed for return periods of 10, 20, 50, 75 and 100 yr in each source region.     

State of stress in the Southern Tyrrhenian subduction zone from fault-plane solutions

In this paper we present revised locations and original focal mechanisms computed for intermediate and deep earthquakes that occurred within the Southern Tyrrhenian subduction zone between 1988 and 1994, in order to improve our knowledge of the state of stress for this compressional margin. In particular, we define the stress distribution within a large portion of the descending slab, between 40 and about 450 km depth. The seismicity distribution reveals a continuous 40–50 km thick slab that abruptly increases its dip from subhorizontal in the Ionian Sea to a constant 70° dip in the Tyrrhenian. We computed focal mechanisms for events with magnitudes ranging from 2.7 and 5.7, obtaining the distribution of P - and T -axes for many events for which centroid moment tensor (CMT) solutions are not available, thus enabling the sampling of a larger depth range compared to previous studies. We define three portions of the slab characterized by different distributions of P - and T -axes. A general down-dip compression is found between 165 and 370 km depth, whereas in the upper part of the slab (40–165 km depth) the fault-plane solutions are strongly heterogeneous. Below 370 km the P -axes of the few deep events located further to the north have a shallower dip and are not aligned with the 70° dipping slab, possibly suggesting that they belong to a separated piece of subducted lithosphere. There is a good correspondence between the depth range in which the P -axes plunge closer to the slab dip (∼ 70°) and the interval characterized by the highest seismic energy release (190–370 km).     

2005～2015年中国高校科研人才的时空变化及影响因素分析

基于2005~2015年全国统计年鉴数据,采用统计地图法和空间自相关分析,分析中国高校科研人才的时空分布特征（不包括港澳台数据）,并采用面板负二项回归模型,识别高校科研人才空间分布的决定因素。研究结果表明:①中国的高校科研人才分布表现出较强的空间不均衡性,总体趋势为东南密集,西北稀疏,科研人才高度集中在北京、天津、上海;②高校科研人才分布具有一定的空间集聚特征,其热点地区为北京、天津、上海和江苏等沿海省市,冷点地区集中分布在广大的西部地区和黑龙江省。2005~2015年,高级职称人才的空间集聚程度有所减弱,而中初级职称科研人才的空间集聚程度有所加强;③人才政策、高等教育规模和层次、公共服务水平和信息化水平是所有高校科研人才空间分布的主要影响因素。从职称差异的角度来看,薪酬和失业率等经济因素仅对初级职称科研人才的分布有影响,医疗、文化公共服务水平和人才政策仅对中高级职称科研人才的分布有影响,高等教育的规模与层次对各种职称人才的分布均有影响;从地区差异的角度来看,西部地区高校科研人才受到经济因素影响更为明显,而中东部高校科研人才受到公共服务水平影响的更为明显。     

A city hit by an earthquake: an HGIS approach to reconstructing the damage in Tiberias (Israel) in 1837

On 1 January 1837 a devastating earthquake struck northern Ottoman Palestine, Lebanon and southern Syria, causing considerable damage in many localities. Tiberias, located on the western shores of the Sea of Galilee, suffered badly and many of its inhabitants were injured or perished. Yet, although the earthquake and the resulting damage were described in many contemporary sources, evaluation of the damage and its spatial distribution was never made before. In this study textual and visual sources were collected and compiled to evaluate the damage that resulted. An HGIS (historical GIS) approach was implemented to examine these sources, geo-code the damage and digitally reconstruct Tiberias at the time. The results were a contemporaneous map of Tiberias at the beginning of the nineteenth century and three-dimensional models of the city prior to and after the earthquake. The models enabled a 360º examination of the damage distribution in high resolution and evaluation of the overall impact of the earthquake. This study demonstrates the use of HGIS in the reconstruction of past urban cityscapes and the investigation of earthquake damage. It also suggests extending this methodology to other historical–geographical studies of past landscapes and to the examination of any kind of gradual or dramatic change.     

贵州高原山区正负地形特征及其对人口分布的影响

正负地形可通过源汇过程对水、土资源进行再分配,影响山区的人口分布。获取正负地形数据,运用6个指标和多元逐步回归法,分析贵州高原山区正负地形特征及其对人口分布的影响。研究表明：①贵州高原山区的正负地形结构异质性明显。蚕食度、深切度、平均粗糙度比、形状指标、匀度指数、破碎度的平均值分别为1.07、371m、1.01、3.40、325和3.34,表明正地形被负地形蚕食明显、切入深度大,正、负地形的粗糙度基本相当,正负地形景观斑块呈现形状不规则、面积不均匀的破碎状态。6个正负地形指标中,匀度指数的变异性最大,变异系数为90.43%;平均粗糙度比的变异性最小,变异系数为1.06%;②贵州高原山区的人口分布不均匀性突出。人口累积达到40%时,累积面积百分比为14%;人口累积达到80%时,累积面积百分比约为50%;③6个正负地形指标中,蚕食度和深切度是影响人口分布的主要因素。蚕食度与人口密度呈正相关关系,深切度与人口密度呈负相关关系。研究成果为研究地形条件的人口影响提供补充,并为贵州高原山区人-地关系协调和土地可持续管理提供参考。     

Modelling the compliance of crustal rock—II. Response to temporal changes before earthquakes

There have been several claims that seismic shear waves respond to changes in stress before earthquakes. The companion paper develops a stress-sensitive model (APE) for the behaviour of low-porosity low-permeability crystalline rocks containing pervasive distributions of fluid-filled intergranular microcracks, and this paper uses APE to model the behaviour before earthquakes. Modelling with APE shows that the microgeometry and statistics of distributions of such fluid-filled microcracks respond almost immediately to changes in stress, and that the behaviour can be monitored by analysing seismic shear-wave splitting. The physical reasons for the coupling between shear-wave splitting and differential stress are discussed.
In this paper, we extend the model by using percolation theory to show that large crack densities are limited at the grain-scale level by the percolation threshold at which interacting crack clusters lead to pronounced increases in rock-matrix permeability. In the simplest formulation, the modelling is dimensionless and almost entirely constrained without free parameters. Nevertheless, APE modelling of the evolution of fluid-saturated rocks under stress reproduces the observed fracture criticality and the narrow range of shear-wave azimuthal anisotropy in crustal rocks. It also reproduces the behaviour of temporal variations in shear-wave splitting observed before and after the 1986, M = 6, North Palm Springs earthquake, Southern California, and several other smaller earthquakes.
The agreement of APE modelling with a wide range of observations confirms that fluid-saturated crystalline rocks are stress-sensitive and respond to changes in stress by critical fluid-rock interactions at the microscale level. This means that the effects of changes in stress and other parameters can be numerically modelled and monitored by appropriate observations of seismic shear waves.     

The spatial patterns and determinants of internal migration of older adults in China from 1995 to 2015

Although China was one of the countries with the fastest-growing aging population in the world, limited scholarly attention has been paid to migration among older adults in China. The full picture of their migration in the entire country over time remains unknown. This study examines the spatial patterns of older interprovincial migration flows and their drivers in China over the period 1995 to 2015, using four waves of census data and intercensal population sample survey data. Results from eigenvector spatial filtering negative binomial regressions indicate that older adults tend to migrate away from low cost-of-living rural areas to high cost-of-living urban and rural areas, moving away from areas with extreme temperature differences. The location of their grandchildren is among the most important attractions. Our findings suggest that family-oriented migration is more common than amenity-led migration among retired Chinese older adults, and the cost-of-living is an indicator of economic opportunities for adult children and the quality of senior care services.     

哈大城市带网络结构韧性演化研究

网络结构韧性是城市空间组织未来发展的重要指向,是社会经济稳定性与恢复力的结构保障。论文借鉴复杂网络指标,构建城市网络结构韧性演化评价模型,以哈大城市带为例,对比分析多重城市网络结构韧性的演化特征。结果表明：① 多重城市网络层级性与匹配性存在分异,在层级性上,交通和金融网络趋于扁平,信息和创新网络趋于立体;在匹配性上,交通和创新网络分别表现为同配性与异配性且特征强化,金融和信息网络为异配性但特征削弱。② 网络结构韧性类型相对稳定,交通运输网络为“同配—核心边缘网络”,金融、信息与创新网络为“韧性网络”;韧性演化综合水平表现为创新合作网络>信息关联网络>0>金融联系网络>交通运输网络。③ 可以从整体结构、片区差异和要素流动三方面优化网络结构韧性演化水平。     

民勤绿洲边缘积沙带形成的环境条件

甘肃河西地区经过60多年的防沙治沙,在绿洲边缘形成了一条积沙带。民勤绿洲边缘积沙带高4.8~18.6 m,宽30.4~461.4 m。为什么有的地段积沙带高大,而有的地段积沙带相对矮小,或者有的地段积沙带较宽,而有的地段积沙带较窄？对此,以民勤为研究区,通过对民勤绿洲边缘积沙带进行了调查,运用相关分析等方法和SPSS软件进行了分析。结果表明：（1） 民勤绿洲边缘积沙带按形成方式可分为天然灌丛积沙带、乔木林带积沙带、人工固沙林积沙带3种,其中天然灌丛形成的积沙带相对高大,而农田边缘单纯的乔木林带形成的积沙带最窄。（2） 控制积沙带高度的环境因子主要是积沙带与主风向的夹角,即积沙带与主风向的夹角越小,则积沙带的高度越低。上风向对准风沙口时,则积沙带与主风向的夹角越小,积沙带的宽度亦越小。（3） 典型相关分析结果好于单相关分析。结果显示,积沙带的形态主要是由其宽度、宽高比和断面形状决定的,而影响积沙带形态特征的环境因子主要是上风向是否对准风沙口以及沙源的距离,亦即当上风向未对准风沙口时积沙带较宽且断面积较大,积沙带与上风向沙源距离越小则积沙带越高大。     

上海大都市区软件产业空间集聚与郊区化

随着信息经济发展壮大,软件产业日益成为城市经济的新引擎,其空间区位对城市空间结构影响不断加深.文章以上海市软件企业名录为数据基础,运用GIS 技术、社会网络分析等方法,探讨了上海大都市区软件产业的空间分布、演变特征及影响因素.研究发现,2002 年及2008年上海软件产业空间分布的集聚化特征明显,但产业集聚中心位置发生了从中心城区转向郊区的偏移.6 年间,软件企业的空间格局呈现出"大都市区尺度上的扩散以及园区尺度的再集聚"的时空特征.不同类型企业空间集聚与扩散的特征不同,以嵌入式软件企业为主的中小企业呈现出向远郊区扩散的特征.在影响因素的分析上,负二项回归的结果表明交通通达性、政府政策影响下的科技园区建设、产业历史基础对软件企业的区位选择具有显著影响.内外资企业区位影响因素的比较分析发现,交通通达性、自然环境及办公楼条件对外资企业区位影响较大,内资企业对政府政策更为敏感.     

1840年以来我国鼠疫的时空分布规律

利用GIS空间统计工具分析了中国鼠疫疫源地的分布状况,结果表明我国鼠疫疫源地明显呈现南、北两个不连续的带状分布,北方鼠疫疫源地类型多,面积大;南方鼠疫疫源地类型少,面积小,并计算出我国鼠疫疫源地的面积为126万km²。在此基础上,利用我国人间鼠疫流行资料,分析了鼠疫空间分布规律。两者的对比表明,鼠疫病区面积在鼠疫疫源地基础上扩大一倍。由于受自然条件、人类社会经济因素和鼠疫流行规律影响,南方鼠疫病区在鼠疫疫源地的基础上扩展范围比北方明显。最后作者利用历史病情资料从1840～1990按十年段,重建了150年来中国鼠疫流行扩散简史。     

Selection, distribution and way of development of leading industries in the Beijing Kowloon economic belt

Ｉ．ＡｓｓｅｓｍｅｎｔｏｆｔｈｅＣｏｎｄｉｔｉｏｎｓｆｏｒｔｈｅＤｅｖｅｌｏｐｍｅｎｔｏｆＩｎｄｕｓｔｒｉｅｓｉｎｔｈｅＢｅｉｊｉｎｇＫｏｗｌｏｏｎＥｃｏｎｏｍｉｃＢｅｌｔＴｈｅｅｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔａｌｃｏｎｄｉｔｉｏｎｓｆｏｒｔｈｅｅｃｏｎｏｍ...