Influence of sea surface wind wave turbulence upon wind-induced circulation, tide–surge interaction and bed stress

A three-dimensional finite volume unstructured mesh model of the west coast of Britain, with high resolution in the coastal regions, is used to investigate the role of wind wave turbulence and wind and tide forced currents in producing maximum bed stress in the eastern Irish Sea. The spatial distribution of the maximum bed stress, which is important in sediment transport problems, is determined, together with how it is modified by the direction of wind forced currents, tide–surge interaction and a surface source of wind wave turbulence associated with wave breaking. Initial calculations show that to first order the distribution of maximum bed stress is determined by the tide. However, since maximum sediment transport occurs at times of episodic events, such as storm surges, their effects upon maximum bed stresses are examined for the case of strong northerly, southerly and westerly wind forcing. Calculations show that due to tide–surge interaction both the tidal distribution and the surge are modified by non-linear effects. Consequently, the magnitude and spatial distribution of maximum bed stress during major wind events depends upon wind direction. In addition calculations show that a surface source of turbulence due to wind wave breaking in shallow water can influence the maximum bed stress. In turn, this influences the wind forced flow and hence the movement of suspended sediment. Calculations of the spatial variability of maximum bed stress indicate the level of measurements required for model validation.     

Tide–surge interactions and their effects on total sea levels in Irish coastal waters

The research presented in this paper involves the application of the joint probability method to the estimation of extreme water levels resulting from astronomical tides and surge residuals and the investigation of the effects of tide–surge interactions on extreme water levels. The distribution of tide peaks was analysed from field records (<20 years) and a 46-year dataset of monthly maximum tidal amplitudes. Large surges were extracted from both field records and a numerical model hindcast covering the 48 largest storm events in the Irish Sea over the period 1959–2005. Extreme storm surges and tides were independently modelled using the generalised extreme value statistical model, and derived probability distributions were used to compute extreme water levels. An important, and novel, aspect of this research is an analysis of tide–surge interactions and their effects on total water level; where interactions exist, they lead to lower total water levels than in the case of independency. The degree of decrease varies with interaction strength, magnitude of surge peak at a particular phase of tide and the distribution of peaks over a tidal cycle. Therefore, including interactions in the computation of extreme levels may provide very useful information at the design stage of coastal protection systems.     

Nonlinear interaction of the Tsugaru Warm Current and tide in the Tsugaru Strait

The Tsugaru Strait, which connects the Sea of Japan with the Pacific Ocean, is characterized by the eastward Tsugaru Warm Current (TWC) and oscillating tidal currents of similar magnitude. A 15-day current observation was conducted in one of the two narrow channels in the strait, at the northwest tip of the Shimokita Peninsula. The observation revealed that the spectral energy of the semidiurnal current exceeds that of the diurnal current, contrary to the conventional view. The Tsugaru Strait regional model was developed to study the mechanism of this spectral energy reversal (140–141.5° E, 40.4–42.6° N, 500?m grid resolution). At the eastern and western open boundaries, the model was driven by the constant Tsugaru warm current and tidal elevation, which was adjusted by comparing the model with tidal gauge observations within the channel. The relative magnitude of the spectral energies differed from that of the observation when the model was driven by tide only. However, the spectral energy levels were reversed when the model was driven by both tide and current. The nonlinear interaction of periodic tidal currents and the steady TWC was explained by the vorticity equation, which describes the production and advection of residual currents from tidal currents. According to the model results, flow separation and advection of vorticity by the TWC was the most prominent factor in this phenomenon. Because of the strong nonlinearities, flow separation around the headland occurred during the tidal period with dominant current magnitude and furnished the main difference between the diurnal and semidiurnal interactions. These phenomena were enhanced by the complex topography, and demonstrate the importance of scale interaction, especially when developing high-resolution regional models.     

Submesoscale tidal eddies in the wake of coral islands and reefs: satellite data and numerical modelling

Interaction of tidal flow with a complex topography and bathymetry including headlands, islands, coral reefs and shoals create a rich submesoscale field of tidal jets, vortices, unsteady wakes, lee eddies and free shear layers, all of which impact marine ecology. A unique and detailed view of the submesoscale variability in a part of the Great Barrier Reef lagoon, Australia, that includes a number of small islands was obtained by using a “stereo” pair of 2-m-resolution visible-band images that were acquired just 54 s apart by the WorldView-3 satellite. Near-surface current and vorticity were extracted at a 50-m-resolution from those data using a cross-correlation technique and an optical-flow method, each yielding a similar result. The satellite-derived data are used to test the ability of the second-generation Louvain-la-Neuve ice-ocean model (SLIM), an unstructured-mesh, finite element model for geophysical and environmental flows, to reproduce the details of the currents in the region. The model succeeds in simulating the large-scale (> 1 km) current patterns, such as the main current and the width and magnitude of the jets developing in the gaps between the islands. Moreover, the order of magnitude of the vorticity and the occurrence of some vortices downstream of the islands are correctly reproduced. The smaller scales (< 500 m) are resolved by the model, although various discrepancies with the data are observed. The smallest scales (< 50 m) are unresolved by both the model- and image-derived velocity fields. This study shows that high-resolution models are able to a significant degree to simulate accurately the currents close to a rugged coast. Very-high-resolution satellite oceanography stereo images offer a new way to obtain snapshots of currents near a complex topography that has reefs, islands and shoals, and is a potential resource that could be more widely used to assess the predictive ability of coastal circulation models.     

Effects of tide-surge interactions on storm surges along the coast of the Bohai Sea,Yellow Sea,and East China Sea

A two-dimensional coupled tide-surge model was used to investigate the effects of tide-surge interactions on storm surges along the coast of the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea. In order to estimate the impacts of tide-surge interactions on storm surge elevations, Typhoon 7203 was assumed to arrive at 12 different times, with all other conditions remaining constant. This allowed simulation of tide and total water levels for 12 separate cases. Numerical simulation results for Yingkou, Huludao, Shijiusuo, and Lianyungang tidal stations were analyzed. Model results showed wide variations in storm surge elevations across the 12 cases. The largest difference between 12 extreme storm surge elevation values was of up to 58 cm and occurred at Yingkou tidal station. The results indicate that the effects of tide-surge interactions on storm surge elevations are very significant. It is therefore essential that these are taken into account when predicting storm surge elevations.     

Improved water-level forecasting for the Northwest European Shelf and North Sea through direct modelling of tide, surge and non-linear interaction

In real-time operational coastal forecasting systems for the northwest European shelf, the representation accuracy of tide–surge models commonly suffers from insufficiently accurate tidal representation, especially in shallow near-shore areas with complex bathymetry and geometry. Therefore, in conventional operational systems, the surge component from numerical model simulations is used, while the harmonically predicted tide, accurately known from harmonic analysis of tide gauge measurements, is added to forecast the full water-level signal at tide gauge locations. Although there are errors associated with this so-called astronomical correction (e.g. because of the assumption of linearity of tide and surge), for current operational models, astronomical correction has nevertheless been shown to increase the representation accuracy of the full water-level signal. The simulated modulation of the surge through non-linear tide–surge interaction is affected by the poor representation of the tide signal in the tide–surge model, which astronomical correction does not improve. Furthermore, astronomical correction can only be applied to locations where the astronomic tide is known through a harmonic analysis of in situ measurements at tide gauge stations. This provides a strong motivation to improve both tide and surge representation of numerical models used in forecasting. In the present paper, we propose a new generation tide–surge model for the northwest European Shelf (DCSMv6). This is the first application on this scale in which the tidal representation is such that astronomical correction no longer improves the accuracy of the total water-level representation and where, consequently, the straightforward direct model forecasting of total water levels is better. The methodology applied to improve both tide and surge representation of the model is discussed, with emphasis on the use of satellite altimeter data and data assimilation techniques for reducing parameter uncertainty. Historic DCSMv6 model simulations are compared against shelf wide observations for a full calendar year. For a selection of stations, these results are compared to those with astronomical correction, which confirms that the tide representation in coastal regions has sufficient accuracy, and that forecasting total water levels directly yields superior results.     

Simulating the three-dimensional circulation and hydrography of Halifax Harbour using a multi-nested coastal ocean circulation model

Halifax Harbour is located on the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia, Canada. It is one of the world’s largest, ice-free natural harbours and of great economic importance to the region. A good understanding of the physical processes controlling tides, flooding, transport and dispersion, and hydrographic variability is required for pollution control and sustainable development of the Harbour. For the first time, a multi-nested, finite difference coastal ocean circulation model is used to reconstruct the three-dimensional circulation and hydrography of the Harbour and its variability on timescales of hours to months for 2006. The model is driven by tides, wind and sea level pressure, air-sea fluxes of heat, and terrestrial buoyancy fluxes associated with river and sewage discharge. The predictive skill of the model is assessed by comparing the model simulations with independent observations of sea level from coastal tide gauges and currents from moored instruments. The simulated hydrography is also compared against a new monthly climatology created from all available temperature and salinity observations made in the Harbour over the last century. It is shown that the model can reproduce accurately the main features of the observed tides and storm surge, seasonal mean circulation and hydrography, and wind driven variations. The model is next used to examine the main physical processes controlling the circulation and hydrography of the Harbour. It is shown that non-linear interaction between tidal currents and complex topography occurs over the Narrows. The overall circulation can be characterized as a two-layer estuarine circulation with seaward flow in the thin upper layer and landward flow in the broad lower layer. An important component of this estuarine circulation is a relatively strong, vertically sheared jet situated over a narrow sill connecting the inner Harbour to the deep and relatively quiescent Bedford Basin. Local wind driven variability is strongest in winter as expected but it is also shown that a significant part of the temperature and salinity variability is driven by physical processes occurring on the adjacent inner continental shelf, especially during storm and coastal upwelling events.     

Tidally generated island wakes and surface water cooling over Izu Ridge

The Kuroshio current is well known for generating cold wakes behind islands over Izu Ridge in Northwestern Pacific. Observational data from the geostationary Himawari-8 satellite for 2015–2017 revealed the occurrence of cold waters during the period when the Kuroshio current flows away from the islands. With a focus on tidal currents, this study presents an investigation of dynamical processes responsible for the formation of areas with low sea surface temperature (SST) through the adoption of a high-resolution numerical ocean model for an event that happened in July 2017. Areas with cold water emerged only when tidal currents are included in the numerical model. The model results indicate the cold surface waters are formed in the vicinity of the islands because of upwelling and vertical mixing. Qualitative features of the cold water formation for each island are found to depend on its size, topography, and ambient currents. Near Kozu Island, the tidal excursion is large enough to cause eddy shedding. These shed eddies are stirred by tidal currents to extend the surface cooling effect to wider areas. Near Hachijo Island, a persistent wake is formed by the ambient northward current. Inclusion of tidal currents destabilizes the wake, and consequently leads to the formation of a low SST area, although no clear eddy shedding is detected. The flow patterns around the islands are classified using an additional non-dimensional parameter, defined as the ratio between tidal excursion and island diameter.

     

Storm surge computations in estuarine and near-coastal regions: the Mersey estuary and Irish Sea area

An unstructured grid storm surge model of the west coast of Britain, incorporating a high-resolution representation of the Mersey estuary is used to examine storm surge dynamics in the region. The focus of the study is the major surge that occurred during the period 11–14 November 1977, which has been investigated previously using uniform grid finite difference models and a finite element model of the west coast of Britain. However, none of these models included the Mersey estuary. Comparison of solutions in the eastern Irish Sea with those computed with these earlier models showed that, away from the Liverpool Bay region, the inclusion of the Mersey estuary had little effect. However, at the entrance to the Mersey, its inclusion did influence the solution. By including a detailed representation of the Mersey estuary within the model, it was possible to conduct a detailed study of storm surge propagation in the Mersey, which had never previously been performed. This detailed study showed for the first time that the surge’s temporal variability within the estuary is influenced by surge elevation at its entrance. This varies with time as a function of spatial and temporal variations of wind stress over the west coast of Britain. Within the Mersey, calculations show that the spatial variability is mainly determined by changes in bottom topography, which had not been included in earlier finite difference models. However, since water depth is influenced by variations in tidal elevation, this, together with tide surge interaction through bottom friction and momentum advection, influences the surge. The ability of the finite element model to vary the mesh in near-shore regions to such an extent that it can resolve the Mersey and hence the impact of the Mersey estuary upon the Liverpool Bay circulation shows that it has distinct advantages over earlier finite difference models. In the absence of detailed measurements within the Mersey at the time of the surge, it was not possible to validate predicted surge elevations within the Mersey. However, significant insight into physical processes influencing the surge propagation down the estuary, its reflection and spatial/temporal variability could be gained.     

Extreme flows and unusual water levels near a Caribbean coral reef: was this a case of a “perfect storm”?

Observations of currents aimed to study the flow near a spawning aggregation reef, Gladden Spit off the coast of Belize, reveal unusually strong currents on 19–20 October 2009 (the current speed was over 1?m?s^?1, when the mean and standard deviation are 0.2?±?0.12?m?s^?1). During this short time, the water level was raised by 60–70?cm above normal in one place, but lowered by 10–20?cm in another location just 2?km away. The temperature dropped by over 2°C within a few hours. Analyses of local and remote sensing data suggest that a rare combination of an offshore Caribbean cyclonic eddy, a short-lived local tropical storm, and a Spring tide, all occurred at the same time and creating a “perfect storm” condition that resulted in the unusual event. High-resolution simulations and momentum balance analysis demonstrate how the unique shape of the coral reef amplified the coastal current through nonlinear flow–topography interactions. The suggested mechanism for the water level change is different than the classical wind-driven storm surge process. The study has implications for the influence of external forcing on mixing processes and physical–biological interactions near coral reefs.     

Comparison of storm surge/tide predictions between a 2-D operational forecast system, the regional tide/storm surge model (RTSM), and the 3-D regional ocean modeling system (ROMS)

In this study, we compare simulated storm surges run on the two-dimensional operational storm surge/tide forecast system (regional tide/storm surge model (RTSM), based on Princeton ocean model) of the Korean Meteorological Administration and the three-dimensional regional ocean modeling system (ROMS), using observational data from 30 coastal tidal stations of three typhoons that struck Korea in 2007. A maximum positive bias of 6.8 cm was found for Typhoon Manyi predicted by ROMS, while a maximum negative bias of −7.4 cm was shown for Typhoon Nari predicted by RTSM. For all three typhoons, the total averaged root mean square error was 10 cm for the two models. Although the statistical results for the storm surge comparison between the observations and RTSM predictions were better than those for ROMS, with the exception of Typhoon Nari, the spatial and temporal variations of ROMS were larger than those of RTSM.     

Development and evaluation of a storm surge warning system in Taiwan

An operational storm surge forecasting system aimed at providing warning information for storm surges has been developed and evaluated using four typhoon events. The warning system triggered by typhoon forecasts from Taiwan Cooperative Precipitation Ensemble Forecast Experiment (TAPEX) has been executed with two storm surge forecasting scenarios with and without tides. Three numerical experiments applying different meteorological inputs have been designed to assess the impact of typhoon forcing on storm surges. One uses synthetic wind fields, and the others use realistic wind fields with and without adjustments to the initial wind fields for the background circulation. Local observations from Central Weather Bureau (CWB) weather stations and tide gauge stations are used to evaluate the wind fields and storm surges from our numerical experiments. The comparison results show that the accuracy of the storm surge forecast is dominated by the track, the intensity, and the driving flow of a typhoon. When the structure of a typhoon is disturbed by Taiwan’s topography, using meteorological inputs from real wind fields can result in a better typhoon simulation than using inputs from synthetic wind fields. The driving flow also determines the impact of topography on typhoon movement. For quickly moving typhoons, storm forcing from TAPEX is reliable when a typhoon is strong enough to be relatively unaffected by environmental flows; otherwise, storm forcing from a sophisticated typhoon initialization scheme that better simulates the typhoon and environmental flows results in a more accurate prediction of storm surges. Therefore, when a typhoon moves slowly and interacts more with the topography and environmental flows, incorporating realistic wind fields with adjustments to the initial wind fields for the background circulation in the warning system will obtain better predictions for a typhoon and its resultant storm surges.     

Influence of non-linear effects upon surge elevations along the west coast of Britain

A two-dimensional vertically integrated hydrodynamic finite-element model of the west coast of Britain is used to examine the response of the region to extreme meteorological forcing. The extent to which tide–surge interaction modifies the computed surge elevation and current distributions is examined in detail. The nature of the finite-element model with its ability to refine the mesh in nearshore regions is ideal for examining the influence of non-linear effects upon surges in these regions. Calculations using spatially uniform orthogonal wind stresses show that the surge elevation and current in shallow water are particularly sensitive to the method used to remove the tide as a result of the highly non-linear nature of the tide–surge interaction in these regions. The most accurate means of de-tiding the solution is by subtracting a tide derived by harmonic analysis of the tide and surge time series at the time of the surge. Subtracting a tide-only solution (the usual approach) leads to tidal energy leaking into the surge solution. Calculations show that this arises because the surge modifies the tidal amplitude and phase in shallow-water regions to such an extent that they are appreciably different to those found in the tide-only calculation. Results suggest that this problem becomes more important, as nearshore meshes are refined in an attempt to improve surge prediction. This suggests that in the future, highly accurate fine-mesh models will be required to compute total water levels without the present linear separation into tidal and surge signal used in operational surge prediction.     

Simulation of the 1953 storm surge in the North Sea

The 1953 North Sea floods, the Big Flood, was one of the worst natural disasters in Europe in modern times and is probably one of the most studied severe coastal floods. Several factors led to the devastating storm surge along the southern North Sea coast in combination of strong and sustained northerly winds, invert barometric effect, high spring tide, and an accumulation of the large surge in the Strait of Dover. However, the storm waves and their roles during the 1953 North Sea storm surge are not well investigated. Therefore, the effect of wave setup due to breaking waves in the storm surge processes is investigated through numerical experiments. A coupled process-based tide-wave-surge model was used to investigate and simulate the storm surge in the North Sea during January 31–February 1, 1953 and validated by comparing with historical water level records at tide gauges and wave observations at light vessels in the North Sea. Meteorological forcing inputs for the period, January 27–February 3, 1953 are reproduced from ERA-20C reanalysis data with a constant correction factor for winds. From the simulation results, it is found that, in addition to the high water due to wind setup, wave setup due to breaking waves nearshore play a role of approximately 10% of the storm surge peaks with approximately 0.2 m. The resulting modeling system can be used extensively for the preparedness of the storm surge and wave of extreme condition, and usual barotropic forecast.     

Growth of large-scale bed forms due to storm-driven and tidal currents: a model approach

An idealized morphodynamic model is used to gain further understanding about the formation and characteristics of shoreface-connected sand ridges and tidal sand banks on the continental shelf. The model consists of the 2D shallow water equations, supplemented with a sediment transport formulation and describes the initial feedback between currents and small amplitude bed forms. The behaviour of bed forms during both storm and fair weather conditions is analyzed. This is relevant in case of coastal seas characterized by tidal motion, where the latter causes continuous transport of sediment as bed load.The new aspects of this work are the incorporation of both steady and tidal currents (represented by an M₂ and M₄ component) in the external forcing, in combination with dominant suspended sediment transport during storms. The results indicate that the dynamics during storms and fair weather strongly differ, causing different types of bed forms to develop. Shoreface-connected sand ridges mainly form during storm conditions, whereas if fair weather conditions prevail the more offshore located tidal sand banks develop. Including the M₄ tide changes the properties of the bed forms, such as growth rates and migration speeds, due to tidal asymmetry. Finally a probabilistic formulation of the storm and fair weather realization of the model is used to find conditions for which both types of large-scale bed forms occur simultaneously. These conditions turn out to be a low storm fraction and the presence strong tidal currents in combination with strong steady currents during storms.     

Storm surges and coastal impacts at Mar del Plata,Argentina

Positive storm surges (PSS) lasting for several days can raise the water level producing significant differences between the observed level and the astronomical tide. These storm events can be more severe if they coincide with a high tide or if they bracket several tidal cycles, particularly in the case of the highest astronomical tide. Besides, the abnormal sea-level elevation near the coast can cause the highest waves generated to attack the upper beach. This combination of factors can produce severe erosion, threatening sectors located along the coastline. These effects would be more serious if the storm surge height and duration increase as a result of a climatic change. The Mar del Plata (Argentina) coastline and adjacent areas are exposed to such effects. A statistical characterization of PSS based on their intensity, duration and frequency, including a surge event classification, was performed utilizing tide-gauge records over the period 1956–2005. A storm erosion potential index (SEPI) was calculated from observed levels based on hourly water level measurements. The index was related to beach profile responses to storm events. Also, a return period for extreme SEPI values was calculated. Results show an increase in the average number of positive storm surge events per decade. Considering all the events, the last decade (1996–2005) exhibits an average 7% increase compared to each one of the previous decades. A similar behavior was found for the decadal average of the heights of maximum annual positive storm surges. In this case the average height of the last two decades exceeds that of the previous decades by approximately 8 cm. The decadal average of maximum annual duration of these meteorological events shows an increase of 2 h in the last three decades. A possible explanation of the changes in frequency, height and duration of positive storm surges at Mar del Plata would seem to lie in the relative mean sea-level rise.     

An investigation of ensemble-based assimilation of satellite altimetry and tide gauge data in storm surge prediction

Cyclogenesis and long-fetched winds along the southeastern coast of South America may lead to floods in populated areas, as the Buenos Aires Province, with important economic and social impacts. A numerical model (SMARA) has already been implemented in the region to forecast storm surges. The propagation time of the surge in such extensive and shallow area allows the detection of anomalies based on observations from several hours up to the order of a day prior to the event. Here, we investigate the impact and potential benefit of storm surge level data assimilation into the SMARA model, with the objective of improving the forecast. In the experiments, the surface wind stress from an ensemble prediction system drives a storm surge model ensemble, based on the operational 2-D depth-averaged SMARA model. A 4-D Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (4D-LETKF) initializes the ensemble in a 6-h cycle, assimilating the very few tide gauge observations available along the northern coast and satellite altimeter data. The sparse coverage of the altimeters is a challenge to data assimilation; however, the 4D-LETKF evolving covariance of the ensemble perturbations provides realistic cross-track analysis increments. Improvements on the forecast ensemble mean show the potential of an effective use of the sparse satellite altimeter and tidal gauges observations in the data assimilation prototype. Furthermore, the effects of the localization scale and of the observational errors of coastal altimetry and tidal gauges in the data assimilation approach are assessed.     

A numerical study on the effects of wave–current–surge interactions on the height and propagation of sea surface waves in Charleston Harbor during Hurricane Hugo 1989

The effects of wave–current interactions on ocean surface waves induced by Hurricane Hugo in and around the Charleston Harbor and its adjacent coastal waters are examined by using a three-dimensional (3D) wave–current coupled modeling system. The 3D storm surge modeling component of the coupled system is based on the Princeton Ocean Model (POM), the wave modeling component is based on the third generation wave model, Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN), and the inundation model is adopted from [Xie, L., Pietrafesa, L. J., Peng, M., 2004. Incorporation of a mass-conserving inundation scheme into a three-dimensional storm surge model. J. Coastal Res., 20, 1209–1223]. The results indicate that the change of water level associated with the storm surge is the primary cause for wave height changes due to wave–surge interaction. Meanwhile, waves propagating on top of surge cause a feedback effect on the surge height by modulating the surface wind stress and bottom stress. This effect is significant in shallow coastal waters, but relatively small in offshore deep waters. The influence of wave–current interaction on wave propagation is relatively insignificant, since waves generally propagate in the direction of the surface currents driven by winds. Wave–current interactions also affect the surface waves as a result of inundation and drying induced by the storm. Waves break as waters retreat in regions of drying, whereas waves are generated in flooded regions where no waves would have occurred without the flood water.     

Spatio-temporal variability of currents over a mobile dune field in the Dover Strait

A one month field campaign featuring two spring–neap tide cycles and three strong storms has been performed in a mobile dune area located in the central part of the Dover Strait. These dunes are known to move in a complex manner as their migration direction varies in space and time (Le Bot et al., 2000, Le Bot, 2001, Le Bot and Trentesaux, 2004). In order to gain some insights into the dune motion processes we present an analysis of the spatio-temporal variability of currents in the area emphasizing the relative influence of tides and storms. A total of eight different hydro-meteorological regimes have been distinguished during the experiment duration. The analysis of the currents measurements at five locations in the area shows that the eight hydro-meteorological regimes induce very different current responses at the bottom. The residual tidal currents exhibit a significant spatial variability both in direction and in intensity. A numerical model of tidal currents over the Dover Strait confirms the strong spatio-temporal variability of the residual tidal currents featuring three singular points. Amongst them, a saddle point is located just south of the I-dune at the convergence of opposite direction residual tidal currents. The wind-induced currents are almost uniform in space, their intensity and direction however strongly depends on the wind regime and thus on time. The mean total current feature a spatial pattern which can be tidal of wind-induced currents dominated, or either in balance, depending on the regime considered. At the PERMOD campaign time scale, the total current is dominated by the residual tidal current. These results proved to give valuable insights to explain the complex dynamics of dune motion observed in this area by Le Bot et al., 2000, Le Bot, 2001, Le Bot and Trentesaux, 2004 at short and long time scales.     

Flood threat anomaly for the low coastal areas of the English Channel based on analysis of recent characteristic flood occurrences

In the English Channel, extreme surge heights did not occur at the time of extreme high tides during the last decades and maximum recorded heights usually do not exceed the maximum astronomical tide by more than a few decimetres. To understand whether this lack of coincidence may be due to specific phenomena or only to chance, we have studied hourly tide records lasting a few decades from nine English and nine French stations as well as air pressure and wind data from nearby meteorological observatories. Among the case studies of moderate flooding at several coastal stations occurring during spring tide, we have selected those of 24–25/10/1980 and of 30/01/1983 to 02/02/1983 as representative of a normal situation without any special chance. The third case study 26–28/02/1990 was potentially more dangerous because of the storm intensity and duration; however, by chance, surge peaks occurred near the low tide. Finally, the propagation of the surge peak of 15–16/10/1987, which reached the maximum height recorded during all the instrumental period at several stations, has been followed all along the English Channel, using the hourly records of 12 tide-gauge stations and of 16 meteorological stations. The surge peak of this great storm, probably the strongest in the last two centuries, occurred everywhere at high tide and spread with the same velocity of the tidal wave. Fortunately, no major flooding occurred because it was the day after a neap tide. In conclusion, some good fortune has saved the low coastal areas of the English Channel from major floods during the last decades. However, the occurrence of the peak of a strong storm surge arriving near the western entrance of the Channel at the time of a great astronomical high tide is a possible event that could be devastating along both sides of the Channel coasts. Main parts of this paper have been presented orally in June 2005 at the joint INQUA–IGCP 495 Meeting “Dunkerque 2005” and in February 2006 at the ASLO-TOS-AGU “Ocean Sciences Meeting” (Honolulu, HI).