Prediction of Probabilistic Settlements by the Perturbation-Based Spectral Stochastic Meshless Local Petrov–Galerkin Method

Originating an attempt of understanding the reliability and serviceability of foundations, an interest of comparing the difference between settlements predicted with and without considering the uncertainty in such as the spatial variability of soil properties is born. This study selectively compares between settlements predicted with and without considering the uncertainty in the spatial variability of Young’s modulus. The tool is a coupling of perturbation expansions of Young moduli and a two-dimensional meshfree weak-strong form in elastostatics. Two further examples show that the spatial variability of Young’s modulus causes apparent difference between probabilistic and deterministic settlement components along the direction of a surcharge. We can derive an autocorrelation function to describe the spatial variability of Young’s modulus and understand how it affects predicted settlements depending upon autocorrelation function values. In addition, the spectral stochastic meshless local Petrov–Galerkin method is a time-saving tool for predicting probabilistic settlements with the uncertainty in the spatial variability of soil properties.     

A no-camp policy: Interrogating informal settlements in Lebanon

As fewer refugees move into formal camps, what kinds of non-camp spaces are emerging and how does that challenge the ways in which we understand the management and politics of refuge? This paper seeks to shed light on this question through an analysis of informal settlements in Lebanon. The Syrian crisis has displaced millions of people, most of whom have moved into neighbouring countries such as Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey. The Lebanese government, faced with a longer history of Palestinian camps and their militarization has refused to allow the establishment of official refugee camps for Syrians. As a result of this ‘no camp’ policy, Syrians are forced to either live in private rented accommodation in towns and cities throughout the country, or in informal settlements (ISes) built on private, often agricultural land. These informal settlements are built and developed through a complex assemblage of humanitarianism, hospitality, security, economic and political considerations. In this paper, I look at the physical and social spaces of informal settlements in the Bekaa Valley, Eastern Lebanon, examining how differential access to aid, support, security and tacit recognition by the state has led to variations amongst them. In doing so, I expose how an informalized response to the crisis through a system of deregulation is enabling refugee spaces to emerge that are visible, yet unrecognized, flexible, yet precarious. These spaces destabilize the city/camp dichotomy by drawing together elements of both. In engaging with debates on informality, the paper contributes to a growing critical literature on refugee geographies and seeks to expand beyond the reductive narratives of refugee camps, thereby offering insights into refugee futures in increasingly uncertain times.     

Climatological aspects in locating settlements in arid regions

In arid and semi-arid regions it is important to pay attention to climatic factors in locating and planning new settlements. Physical factors such as large differences in elevation over short distances, proximity to a large lake or the combination of the two factors, cause improvement of the climate.The central Jordan Valley and the Dead Sea could be a suitable area for proving these assumptions. A topo-climatological research has been performed in this region to help the planners in finding the best locations for new settlements. By using a “discomfort index”, which is based on temperature and humidity, the influence of the above mentioned physical factors on local climate modification has been verified. Also, its importance in the improvement of the location of new settlements has been shown.     

Hot spots of wetland vegetation reduction in relation to human accessibility: differentiating human impacts on natural ecosystems at multiple scales

Human activities have profoundly influenced natural ecosystems, especially wetlands. This study attempted to differentiate the impact of human activities on reductions in wetland vegetation in the Lixiahe wetlands, China, at multiple spatial scales. The reduction in wetland vegetation from 1988 to 2006 was quantified using Landsat data, and moving window analysis was used to detect hot spots of vegetation reduction in the wetlands at window sizes of 150, 1,000 and 2,500 m. Logistic regression was used to examine the influence on occurrence of the hot spots of landscape variables representing accessibility to human settlements and roads. Over the study period, wetland vegetation declined by 69%, which was largely attributable to aquaculture development. The hot spots of wetland vegetation reduction exhibited increasing patch size, but decreasing patch number with increasing window size. The occurrence probability of the hot spots rose significantly with increasing proximity to rural settlements and secondary roads, with only a minor response to the presence of towns. With increasing window size, however, the density of secondary roads and rural settlements were less influential, whereas the presence of major roads had more influence on hot spot occurrence. These trends are reasonable in that wetland use activities in the study area are directly associated with the settlements and roads in the rural areas at local scales, but are also indirectly associated with the major transportation network from a regional perspective. Overall, these results suggested that different human activities, as distinguished by their sources on the landscape, could have different environmental consequences at different scales for scale-dependent features.     

Climatological aspects in locating settlements in arid regionsKlimatologische aspekte bei der standortwahl für neue siedlungen in ariden regionenAspects climatologiques dans l'emplacement de villages dans des régions arides

In arid and semi-arid regions it is important to pay attention to climatic factors in locating and planning new settlements. Physical factors such as large differences in elevation over short distances, proximity to a large lake or the combination of the two factors, cause improvement of the climate.The central Jordan Valley and the Dead Sea could be a suitable area for proving these assumptions. A topo-climatological research has been performed in this region to help the planners in finding the best locations for new settlements. By using a “discomfort index”, which is based on temperature and humidity, the influence of the above mentioned physical factors on local climate modification has been verified. Also, its importance in the improvement of the location of new settlements has been shown.     

Cryospheric hazards and risk perceptions in the Sagarmatha (Mt. Everest) National Park and Buffer Zone,Nepal

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are among the most serious cryospheric hazards for mountain communities. Multiple studies have predicted the potential risks posed by rapidly expanding glacial lakes in the Sagarmatha (Mt. Everest) National Park and Buffer Zone of Nepal. People’s perceptions of such cryospheric hazards can influence their actions, beliefs, and responses to those hazards and associated risks. This study provides a systematic approach that combines household survey data with ethnography to analyze people’s perceptions of GLOF risks and the socioeconomic and cultural factors influencing their perceptions. A statistical logit model of household data showed a significant positive correlation between the perceptions of GLOF risks and livelihood sources, mainly tourism. Risk perceptions are also influenced by spatial proximity to glacial lakes and whether a village is in potential flood zones. The 2016 emergency remediation work implemented in the Imja Tsho (glacial lake) has served as a cognitive fix, especially in the low-lying settlements. Much of uncertainty and confusions related GLOF risks among locals can be attributed to a disconnect between how scientific information is communicated to the local communities and how government climate change policies have been limited to awareness campaigns and emergency remediation efforts. A sustainable partnership of scientists, policymakers, and local communities is urgently needed to build a science-driven, community-based initiative that focuses not just in addressing a single GLOF threat but develops on a comprehensive cryospheric risk management plan and considers opportunities and challenges of tourism in the local climate adaptation policies.

     

Applicability of the rectangular hyperbolic method to settlement predictions of sabkha soils

In this paper, the applicability of the hyperbolic method to predict settlements of sabkha formations was investigated. Conventional and long-term consolidation tests were conducted, and the fit of the experimental data to a rectangular hyperbolic relationship was examined. The validity of the hyperbolic form as a representation of the settlement-time response of sabkha soils was further ascertained by analysing settlement records measured under an instrumented test embankment. The laboratory results indicated that the settlement-time behaviour could reasonably be represented by the hyperbolic relationship. Settlement estimates determined as the inverse of the slope of the initial linear segment multiplied by the slope of the theoretical curve, or obtained based on the radial slopes corresponding to 50% and 90% consolidation points, all underestimated the observed total settlements. However, the inverse of the slope of the final linear segment of the hyperbolic curve gave excellent estimates of the observed total settlements. The agreements between the predicted and observed in situ ultimate primary consolidation settlements are considered reasonable. Finally, except when the hyperbolic plot follows a straight line, the use of the hyperbolic method for prediction of total settlements of sabkha soils with prominent secondary compression behaviour has been shown to be both uncertain and impractical.     

Numerical study on the effect of rigid inclusions on existing railroads

Railroad track problems have been exacerbated by the continuous increase in freight loads and train traffic. The need to implement soil improvement technique in a relatively short window-time (ie, to minimize train-traffic disruption) is a key aspect to be considered when adopting a convenient remedial solution to control settlements in railroads constructed on problematic subgrades. Rigid inclusions are selected in this paper because they are reliable solutions relatively easy to implement. Furthermore, they can be used in different ground conditions and are suitable for short construction times (eg, do not require a curing time, as in grouting methods). Typical (analytical) methods for the design of rigid inclusions are adopted in this paper to define an optimal distribution of piles for the case of existing railroads. The selected layout is then analyzed in detail by means of a 3-D dynamic finite element simulator using both, elastoplastic and elastic models. The performance of rigid inclusions is studied considering different operational scenarios, with dynamic and static loads, as well as involving subgrades with different plasticity index values. It is found that the predictions from the analytical design methods for rigid inclusion tend to be unconservative when compared against the finite element results. As for the numerical solutions, the most unfavorable stress condition is associated with the dynamic elastoplastic finite element solution. It is estimated that the rigid inclusions will contribute to a reduction in the ground settlements of around 15% to 20%, depending on the subgrade plasticity index.     

基于双曲线法的分级填筑路堤沉降预测

在软土地基上修筑路堤多采用分级施工的方法。基于传统双曲线沉降预测法基础上,提出一种软土地基上路堤分级施工情况下沉降预测的新模型,该模型考虑了土体变形的非线性特性和固结性质随荷载的变化,将沉降拟合方程中的待定参数在2个不同荷载级中分别确定。利用有较长预压期的前一级实测沉降,确定与土的固结性质有关的参数,待预测沉降荷载级的最终沉降量由该级较短预压期内实测沉降确定。通过工程实例验证了所建议模型的适用性。     

岩溶山区乡村聚落的格局特征及类型分析——以重庆市巫山县为例

为探索岩溶山区乡村聚落空间格局的特征,以位于重庆东北部岩溶广布的巫山县为研究对象,运用空间分布测度模型、空间规模测度模型和空间形态测度模型,定量分析了巫山乡村聚落的空间格局特征,并进一步划分了地域类型。分析结果表明,总体上,巫山县的乡村聚落有一定的空间集聚特征,但存在明显的区域差异;乡村聚落的规模普遍偏小,具有低值集聚的特征,空间上呈现县城西北、西南大规模农村聚落集中,东北、东南小规模零散分布的“西热东冷”的格局;在空间形态上,巫山县西部区域连接性好,但形状不规则,复杂程度高,东部区域连接性差,复杂程度不及西部区域。整体而言,巫山县的乡村聚落形状规则性差,缺乏规划与引导。通过构建乡村聚落空间测度指标体系,采用系统聚类的方法,将巫山县乡村聚落划分为6种类型:低密度散点型、低密度小团块型、低密度不规则团块状、中密度不规则条带型、高密度宽带型、高密度散点型。未来的县域乡村聚落重构需要根据不同类型的特点加以引导。      

贵州喀斯特聚落文化类型及其特征研究

从喀斯特环境人地关系的角度出发,探讨贵州喀斯特聚落文化的组成因子和文化层;依据地域分异规律、相似性原则、综合分析原则,将贵州喀斯特聚落文化分为谷地聚落、半坡村聚落、溪边村聚落、丘原区聚落、洞穴聚落和屯堡聚落六种主要类型。谷地聚落因峰丛洼地环境容量小,形成散珠状小聚居的形态和独特的垦殖文化景观;半坡村聚落因喀斯特山地环境的影响,形成依山而建、聚族而居、典型的吊脚楼民居建筑等特征;溪边村聚落因峰林坝地环境容量较大,沿河形成串珠状聚族而居的形态;丘原区聚落因丘原盆地环境容量大、地域环境开放,形成多民族杂居、村寨密集分布、文化交融强等特征;洞穴聚落因岩洞环境的特殊性,形成依洞而建的小聚居形态;屯堡聚落因喀斯特环境和历史的影响,形成典型的集聚型村落,将石文化、江南文化、军事文化有机结合。通过探讨各类型聚落文化在聚落规模、聚落布局、聚落环境、建筑、生活习俗等方面的特征,可为合理开发贵州喀斯特聚落文化提供依据。      

Towards a normative concept of settlements: the development process and theoretical and conceptual problems in the “Lower limb”

This paper critically evaluates theories of settlement pattern and change which have commonly been employed by geographers. Those discussed include central place, growth pole and modernization theories, as well as notions of settlements as a product of adaptation to environmental conditions, as central places, or as nodes of retail distribution. In all instances criticism centres on the applicability of those notions to the African rural scene. It is suggested that not only are most concepts inappropriate in this context, but they are also partial and historically relative. More suitable, normative concepts of settlements and settlement systems are suggested.     

喀斯特地区不同岩性上农村居民点分布特征——以平果市为例

以典型喀斯特地区广西平果市的农村居民点为研究对象,运用GIS空间分析方法、Voronoi图和景观格局指数分析方法,揭示平果市喀斯特地区不同岩性上农村居民点的空间分布特征.结果表明:(1)平果市农村居民点总面积为4825.15 hm2,喀斯特地区与非喀斯特地区的农村居民面积比值约为2.8:1;(2)平果市的农村居民点属于...     

超长大直径桩的变形特性研究

应用有限元方法,分析了不同几何参数情况下超长大直径桩的荷载-沉降关系、桩顶沉降量的构成及其比例。根据计算结果得出以下规律：超长桩极限承载力的发挥需要较大的桩顶位移,且随着长径比的增大而增大;超长桩的变形主要由桩身压缩量控制,桩端沉降所占比例较小,且各沉降分项所占比例与长径比存在明显的函数关系;对长径比为50～83的超长大直径桩,极限状态下的桩身压缩量所占比例为65.2 %～71.83 %,桩端荷载所引起的沉降量所占比例为15.7 %～9.72 %;工作荷载作用下的桩身压缩量所占比例为66.1 %～72.5 %,桩端荷载所引起的沉降量所占比例为10.8 %～3.9 %。     

Coping strategies in rural areas of the Buzau Sub–Carpathians

This paper focuses on the Sub–Carpathian region which has traditionally maintained a large rural population and is today suffering acute economic and social stress. During the present transition phase the rural population is struggling to survive by combining elements of the modern and traditional economies and research has been undertaken to clarify a range of household strategies. After profiling the communes of the Buzau Carpathians the problem is tackled at two levels on the basis of questionnaire work carried out during 1998–1999. First there is a general overview to outline conditions in Patarlagele commune, including some local contrasts between settlements on main transport axis along the Buzau valley and those in the hills and side valleys. Second there is a consideration of in-depth profiles of specific households in villages in the wider area including Panatau as well as Patarlagele commune. It remains to be seen to what extent the district will be able to safeguard its social capital when growth resumes in large towns especially Brasov and Buzau with which Patarlagele has the best contacts. It is also an open question how far the remoter settlements will retain a viable population, assuming that the services remain relatively poor while disadvantage persists with regard to both employment opportunities and physical security. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Synergetics—an interdisciplinary approach to phenomena of self-organization

Synergetics is a rather new field of interdisciplinary research and originated from physics. There it turned out that systems composed of many parts can acquire macroscopic structures or functions by self-organization, i.e. without any specific ordering forces from the outside. It then turned out that the spontaneous formation of ordered structures in other fields, such as chemistry and biology, is governed by the same principles. These principles and the structural laws they obey are of such a general nature that they have become applicable to other sciences as well, e.g. to linguistics and history. The present paper shows by means of simple examples how the concepts of order parameters, instability and slaving can become operational in various fields and hold the promise of wide application, e.g. in geography with respect to the formation of settlements.     

Optimum versus reality in Israel's town system

Israel's town system consists of 37 towns of different size, 28 development towns, and 24 semi-urban Jewish and Arab settlements, most of them consisting of 5,000–10,000 inhabitants. In the existing town system there is an exaggerated concentration of large towns in the Tel Aviv region; an excessive number of development towns; slow urban growth in the Negev and the Galilee; failure of semi-urban settlements to attain urban status; and the absence of urban settlements in many regions where they would be needed.A proposal to outline an optimal system of Israel's town development is discussed. It was found that the existing urban system in Israel shows a distortion which is four times bigger than the optimal one. A comparison between the optimal lay-out of towns and the real one uncovers the gaps where new towns should be established in the future, and points out the locations where no further urban development should be encouraged.     

Analysis of creep settlement of pile groups in linear viscoelastic soil

This paper presents the analysis of creep settlement of pile groups for line pile groups, square pile groups, and rectangular pile groups undergoing creep settlements over a period of time. The soil is treated as a viscoelastic material and is modeled using a three-parameter viscoelastic model. The damping component (dashpot) takes care of the permanent time-dependent deformations in three-parameter viscoelastic model. An approach suggested by Mindlin has been employed to calculate the stress distribution along the pile length in a group. The viscoelastic problem is converted into an elastic problem by the application of Laplace transform. Results in the form of variation of interaction factors for parameters such as pile length to diameter ratio, pile spacing, Poisson's ratio, and modulus ratio have been presented. Comparison has been made between interaction factors for piles groups undergoing immediate settlements and creep settlements. Finally, a typical predictive example has been presented for a 3 × 3 pile group showing creep settlement. The load rearrangement due to creep settlements causes about 5% to 35% increase in base resistance over time. Interaction factors for pile groups (2 × 1, 3 × 1, 2 × 2, and 3 × 2) undergoing creep settlement is about 15% to 55% higher than the interaction factors considering only the immediate settlements for pile group spacing less than or equal to 5d.     

盾构掘进速度及非正常停机对地面沉降的影响

软土中盾构隧道施工不可避免地扰动周围地层,进而引起地面沉降,沉降过大时将危及邻近建（构）筑物的正常使用和结构安全。全面理解盾构隧道施工引起的地面沉降的影响因素及对沉降的准确预测,对于减少施工环境危害十分重要。考虑盾构压重后,引入Mindlin解计算盾构下卧土层中的附加应力,采用单向压缩分层总和法计算盾构下卧土层的总固结沉降,由盾构掘进速度及停机时间确定附加应力作用时间后,应用太沙基一维固结理论计算在该作用时间内的固结沉降,应用Peck公式建立了盾构下卧土层沉降与地面沉降的关系,并以杭州庆春路过江隧道地面沉降的实测验数据对上述理论进行了验证。分析表明,考虑盾构掘进速度及停机时间的地面沉降计算理论基本合理;盾构掘进速度及停机时间会对隧道施工引起的地面沉降产生显著影响;在其他施工条件相同的前提下,提高盾构掘进速度和减少停机时间有利于减少地面沉降。     

Retailing in rural areas: A case study in Norfolk

In Britain the decline of facilities in rural settlements in the face of increasing urban dependence is becoming a major policy issue; despite high mobility, many people still lack access to essential facilities. This paper is based on fieldwork carried out mostly during 1976 in two rural areas of Norfolk, as part of a Government-sponsored study of rural transport and accessibility. It looks first at the pattern of shops and their location related to parish size, and then discusses levels of use in comparison with urban facilities, drawing on household activity surveys. The paper then analyses in depth the ownership and operation of village shops, using the results of a survey carried out among the proprietors of the shops in the two study areas, and also considers the issues that concern shopkeepers and villagers. Finally it notes changes over the past two years in the pattern of facilities and discusses the case of two villages. The implications for rural planning are examined, and the author concludes that development of rural settlements must be based on sensitive and local understanding, rather than directive blanket policies, if reasonable access to shops and similar facilities is to be retained.