WINTER QINGHAI-XIZANG T_(BB) FEATURES IN RELATION TO ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERN AND ASIAN-AUSTRALIAN MONSOONS

Predominantly in the context of Japan GMS-derived T_(BB) data,study is undertaken of therelationship between the winter thermal conditions of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau(QXP)andanomaly in Asian-Australian monsoons during northern summer.Evidence suggests that anti-correlation of cold air activity of East Asia with that of Mid Asia is responsible for the counterpartof the ground thermal characteristics anomaly on an interannual basis between the SW and NEQXP;the winter thermal pattern bears a closer correlativity with the subsequent summertimeAsian-Australian monsoons anomaly;as the thermal distribution is reversed,so are the convectionfeatures over North and South China,maritime continent,the NW and SW Pacific at tropical andequatorial latitudes,resulting in vast difference between East-Asian summer and Indonesian-NorthAustralian winter monsoons;the subtropical monsoon-associated rainbelt over the mid-lowerChangjiang basins exhibits the discrepancy in vigor and northerly shift timing.Besides,part of theresults has been further borne out through analysis of temperature and precipitation records of theeastern portion of the country in monsoon climate.     

TBB DATA-REVEALED FEATURES OF ASIAN-AUSTRALIAN MONSOON SEASONAL TRANSITION AND ASIAN SUMMER MONSOOM ESTABLISHMENT

Based on T_BB data from Meteorological Institute Research of Japan, study is carried out of the features of seasonal transition of Asian-Australian monsoons and Asian summer monsoon establishment,indicating that the transition begins as early as in April, followed by abrupt change in May-June; the Asian summer monsoon situation is fully established in June. The winter convective center in Sumatra moved steadily northwestward across the "land bridge" of the maritime continent and the Indo-China Peninsula as time goes from winter to summer, thus giving rise to the change in large scale circulations that is responsible for the summer monsoon establishment over SE Asia and India; the South China Sea to the western Pacific summer monsoon onset bears a close relation to the active convection in the Indo China Peninsula and steady eastward retreat of the subtropical TBB high-value band,corresponding to the western Pacific subtropical high.     

TBB资料揭示的亚澳季风区季节转换及亚洲夏季风建立的特征

发展了一个用于台风路径预报的初始场人造台风方案。该方案除包含对称台风环流外,也考虑了非对称风的作用。使用双向移动套网格模式作的试验预报结果表明,初始场中引入人造台风后能明显提高径预报的水平。     

临安冬夏季SO2、NO2和O3体积分数特征及与气象条件的关系

对临安大气本底站2003-2004年冬、夏季二氧化氮(NO2)、二氧化硫(SO2)、臭氧(O3)进行了分析.结果表明:冬季NO2和SO2平均体积分数分别为19.48×10-9和35.74 x10-9,而夏季的平均体积分数分别为4.81×10-9和8.12×10-9,冬季高于夏季;O3在夏季的平均体积分数为33.55×10-9,略高于冬季的25.44×10-9;夜间NO2和SO2体积分数比白天高,并且NO2呈明显的单峰单谷型分布,O3也呈单峰型但峰值出现在白天.NO2、SO2体积分数存在着明显的“假日效应”,假日比非假日低,周五高于假日和非假日;但O3体积分数没有明显的假日效应.降水对SO2有明显的清除作用,但对NO2的清除作用不明显.与风向对比发现,夏季高体积分数的NO2、SO2都受到NW、WNW风的影响,冬季则分别受NE和SW、SSW风的影响;而O3受风向的影响较复杂,与局地光化学反应有关.     

RESEARCH ON SURFACE O3 WITH METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS UNDER ATMOSPHERIC BACKGROUND CONDITIONS IN NORTHEAST CHINA*

Surface O₃ concentration and its precursors have been observed at Longfengshan station,Heilongjiang Province for a period of one year from August 13,1994 to July 30,1995. Relationship between surface O₃ and the meteorological conditions during this period is analyzed in this study.Observation results show that diurnal variation of surface O₃ follows a pattern of double-peaks with amplitude of 27-28 ppb under fine days in summer and autumn.Although the diurnal variation is small(14 ppb),it is still detectable when it is overcast.Diurnal variation of O₃ is irregular under rainy days.Surface O₃ concentration rises when wind speed starts to increase at 0800 BT(Beijing Time)from 0 to 6 m s^-1in autumn,winter and summer.Relative high surface O₃ concentration is noticed frequently when S,SSW,SW and WSW wind are encountered at the station during all seasons.At 0800 BT and 1400 BT the surface O₃ concentration increases with the increase of global radiation accordingly during fine days in winter,spring and autumn.During fine days average peak of O₃ concentration in summer is 20 ppb higher than that in winter while the average peak of global radiation in summer is almost twice as high as that in winter.The average surface O₃ concentration under fine days in autumn at Longfengshan station is 14 ppb lower in comparison to the observation results from Lin'an station where Lin'an is at about the same longitude and lower latitude,with same environment,which is mainly caused by the difference of global radiation due to different latitudes in these two areas(difference of average peak global radiation about 100 W m^-2).     

Monsoon Change in East Asia in the 21st Century: Results of RegCM3

The authors investigate monsoon change in East Asia in the 21st century under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario using the results of a regional climate model, RegCM3, with a high horizontal resolution. First, the authors evaluate the model’s performance compared with NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, showing that the model can reliably reproduce the basic climatology of both winter and summer monsoons over East Asia. Next, it is found that the winter monsoon in East Asia would slightly weaken in the 21st century with spatial differences. Over northern East China, anomalous southerly winds would dominate in the mid-and late-21st century because the zonal land-sea thermal contrast is expected to become smaller, due to a stronger warming trend over land than over ocean. However, the intensity of the summer monsoon in East Asia shows a statistically significant upward trend over this century because the zonal land-sea thermal contrast between East Asia and the western North Pacific would become larger, which, in turn, would lead to larger sea level pressure gradients throughout East Asia and extending to the adjacent ocean.     

冬夏季环流隔季相关的数值试验

利用海气耦合和大气气候模式研究东亚冬季风异常对夏季环流的影响, 结果表明, 东亚冬季风异常对于后期环流及海洋状态异常都起了很大的作用.一般情况下, 强的冬季风与后期弱的东亚夏季风和较强的南海季风相对应.与强(弱)冬季风异常相关的风应力的改变可以使热带太平洋海温从冬季至夏季呈现La Nina (El Nio)型异常分布.试验得到的由冬季风异常所产生的海洋及夏季环流的变化与实况是相当接近的.在异常的冬季风偏北风分量强迫下, 西太平洋上形成的偏差气旋环流在夏季已不存在, 这时东亚夏季风反而增强.而冬季赤道西风分量所产生的影响, 则在西太平洋上形成显著的偏差气旋环流, 使东亚副热带夏季风减弱, 南海夏季风加强.对于东亚大气环流而言, 与强弱冬季风对应的热带海洋海温异常强迫下, 不仅是冬季, 后期春季和夏季环流的特征都能得到很好的模拟.但是从分区看, 西太平洋暖池区的海温异常比东太平洋更为重要.单纯的热带中东太平洋的海温异常对东亚大气环流的影响主要表现在冬季, 对后期的影响并不十分清楚.整个热带海洋的异常型分布(不论是El Nio还是La Nia)型, 对冬夏季风的影响是重要的, 而单纯的某个地区的海温异常都比它的整体影响要小.从试验结果看, 海温在大尺度冬夏季环流的隔季相关中起了十分重要的作用.     

闪电产生氮氧化物对青藏高原臭氧低谷形成的影响

为了进一步了解青藏高原闪电的产生氮氧化物（LNO_x）经由光化学反应对O₃浓度变化及夏季O₃低谷形成的可能影响,本文利用2005~2013年由OMI卫星得到的对流层NO₂垂直浓度柱（NO₂ VCD）、O₃总浓度柱（TOC）和O₃廓线以及星载光学瞬变探测器OTD和闪电成像仪LIS获取的总闪电数资料,对青藏高原和同纬度长江中下游地区的TOC和NO₂ VCD月均值时空分布特征、闪电与NO₂ VCD的相关性和O₃的垂直分布特征及其与LNO_x的关系进行了对比分析。结果表明,青藏高原的O₃低谷主要出现在夏季和秋季,其TOC值比同纬度长江中下游地区低约10~15 DU（Dobson unit）。青藏高原NO₂VCD总体较小,表现为夏高冬低的分布特征。青藏高原夏季O₃浓度受南亚高压的影响总体呈减小趋势,但因强雷暴天气导致对流层中上部LNO_x浓度升高,并随强上升气流向对流层顶输送,同时通过光化学反应使O₃浓度增加,缩小了青藏高原和同纬度地区的O₃浓度差,减缓了O₃总浓度的下降,抑制了夏季O₃低谷的进一步深化。     

长江中下游地区冬夏干湿韵律特征分析

通过分析中国160站1952—2013年的月平均降水观测资料,揭示了长江中下游地区冬季和夏季降水间存在显著的韵律现象,即当该地区冬季降水异常偏少(偏多)时,次年夏季降水也趋于异常偏少(偏多),这里称之为干(湿)韵律现象。对干、湿韵律年大气环流背景的分析结果显示,干韵律年和湿韵律年对应的环流形势基本相反:在干(湿)韵律年冬季,东亚地区500 hPa位势高度距平呈现西高东低(东高西低)的分布型,中国南方东部主要受偏北(南)风异常控制,这不利(有利)于低纬度暖湿气流向长江中下游地区输送,导致该地区冬季降水异常偏少(多);在次年夏季,西北太平洋副热带高压异常偏弱(强),不利(有利)于西南暖湿气流向中国东部地区输送,使得长江中下游地区夏季降水也异常偏少(多)。研究进一步指出,长江中下游地区的冬夏干、湿韵律现象与东亚冬夏季风活动的强度密切相关。干、湿韵律现象多在东亚冬夏季风强度变化一致的情况下出现:冬、夏季风一致偏强时多导致干韵律现象,而一致偏弱时易导致湿韵律现象。     

Effects of the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) plateau on the circulation features over the plateau and its surrounding areas

Areview of the effects of the Tibetan Plateau on circulation features over the plateau and its surrounding areas has been made, with a special emphasis upon the monsoon circulations in South Asia and East Asia. This includes estimates of heat sources, dynamic and thermal effects of the plateau, and effects of the plateau on summer and winter monsoons. Major progresses made in this aspect by Chinese meteorologists have been specifically described and are compared with the achievements made by the meteorologists of other countries.     

THE MECHANISM OF THICKNESS OF GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT DIPOLE AND ITS RELATION WITH CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN ASIA-AUSTRALIA IN BOREAL WINTER

With the EOF of reanalysis data being analyzed, a northern- southern dipole is found in the upper troposphere geopotential height field of over the Asian-Australian monsoon region in the winter of the Northern Hemisphere (NH), which is defined as Asian-Australian dipole (AAD) in this study. Its intensity index is defined as AADI. Correlation and synthetic analysis illustrate that AADI is closely related to the weather and climate of Asian-Australian region in boreal winter. The index can reflect the simultaneous anomalies of temperature and precipitation on interannual and decadal scales in the boreal winter of Asian-Australian region. The superposition of the decadal and interannual signals is significant for the relationship between the AADI and climate change. The index can be used as an indicator of intensity of the Asian-Australian monsoon. In the years of strong AADI, the East Asia major deep trough is stronger, the Subtropical High is weaker and the Alaska ridge and the westerly jet are stronger than those in normal years. Enhanced meridional circulation between high and low latitudes exists in the years of strong AADI. These relationships reflect the intrinsic link between the anomalies in the upper troposphere geopotential height and climate in the Asian-Australian region.     

过去2000年亚澳夏季风降水百年际变化特征及成因的模拟研究

利用地球系统模式（CESM）开展过去2000 年气候模拟试验,在利用观测资料、再分析资料对模拟资料进行检验的基础上,探讨百年时间尺度上亚澳夏季风降水的时、空变化特征及其成因,对于认识百年尺度气候变化规律、定量区分自然因子和人类活动对亚澳夏季风的影响具有重要意义。结果表明:过去2000 年亚澳夏季风降水和温度的波动较为一致,暖期降水多,冷期降水少。两者相关系数为0.83,达到99%置信度。此外,亚澳夏季风降水存在105、130、180 a的百年尺度周期。亚澳夏季风降水经验正交函数分解第一模态在印度洋北部呈南北反向的分布型态,在东亚地区呈负、正、负的分布型态;第二模态在印度洋北部呈正、负、正的分布型态,在东亚地区呈全区一致型的分布型态。经验正交函数分解第一特征向量和第二特征向量的正、负值中心大多出现在印度洋北部地区,南北呈不对称分布。亚澳夏季风降水的105 a周期主要受火山活动和土地利用/覆盖的影响,130 a周期主要受太阳辐射、气候系统内部变率的影响,180 a周期主要受火山活动的影响。从经验正交函数分解第一特征向量来看,整个亚澳夏季风降水主要受土地利用/覆盖、太阳辐射的影响;第二特征向量表明亚澳夏季风降水在百年际空间变化上主要受太阳辐射和气候系统内部变率的影响;第三特征向量表明亚澳夏季风降水在百年际空间变化上主要受气候系统内部变率和温室气体的影响。该研究对揭示百年际时间尺度气候变化特征、辨识影响气候变化的自然因素与人为因素、理解其影响气候的物理机制等具有重要意义,也为应对该区域气候变化提供了参考依据。      

Potential role of winter rainfall in explaining increased moisture in the Mediterranean and Middle East during periods of maximum orbitally-forced insolation seasonality

Precession-related forcing of seasonal insolation changes in the northern hemisphere (NH) alternates between maximum NH seasonality (summer perihelion–increased insolation; winter aphelion–decreased insolation) and minimum NH seasonality (summer aphelion, and winter perihelion). With maximum NH seasonality, climate models simulate stronger NH summer monsoons that bring increased precipitation to North Africa and South and East Asia, in agreement with the in-phase relation of precipitation and NH summer insolation found in many paleoclimatic records. However paleoclimatic records in parts of the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and the interior of Asia also indicate increased moisture at times of maximum NH seasonality, a change not always clearly linked to stronger summer monsoons—either because these regions are at or beyond the boundaries of the present-day monsoon or because the observations allow multiple causal interpretations, or both. This study focuses on the possible role of changes in NH winter climate in explaining these wetter episodes. Using climate model simulations, we show that the ‘NH winter aphelion–decreased NH winter insolation’ orbital configuration is linked to the Mediterranean storm track and increased winter rains in the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and interior Asia. We conclude that wetter periods at precession time scales in these particular regions may have resulted either from increased wintertime storm track precipitation, or from a combination of increased winter and summer rainfall. Given this seasonal ambiguity, both possibilities need to be considered.     

东亚季风转换对西北太平洋近地面O3春季高值的影响

以东亚酸沉降监测网近地面O3资料,结合NCEP/NCAR的全球再分析风场、NOAA总云量及全球降水气候项目降水资料,分析2000～2007年东亚西太平洋地区近地层O3的区域和季节变化,重点分析不同站点O3月均浓度最大值时间差异的原因。结果表明,东亚以及大部分北半球中纬度清洁背景地区,近地层O3春季最高、夏季最低是广泛存在的现象。东亚夏季风的推进过程造成不同地区春季O3月均最大值出现的时间略有不同,Ogasawara和Hedo站O3浓度在3月达最大值,而Rishiri、Happo、Oki和Cheju站在4、5月达最大值。2007年副热带高压西进较晚且推进过程受阻导致Happo站2007年春季O3浓度高于气候平均值,Cheju地区2007年5月O3浓度达最大;2004年东亚夏季风爆发较早导致Hedo站2004年春季O3浓度明显低于平均值。     

青藏高原冬春积雪异常与中国东部地区夏季降水关系的进一步分析

为了进一步分析青藏高原(下称高原)冬春积雪异常与中国东部地区夏季降水的关系,利用1957～1994年高原地区的实测雪深、1951～1994年6～8月中国东部地区226个均匀分布测站的实测月降水量,以及美国国家环境监测中心/国家大气研究中心(NCEP/NCAR)1958～1994年1～12月的再分析格点值资料,对比分析了高原冬、春季多、少雪年后期中国东部地区夏季(6～8月)降水分布和环流的平均特征,也分析了高原积雪影响的机理.分析结果表明:1) 平均来说,多雪年夏季长江及江南北部降水可偏多1～2成,华北和华南的降水则偏少1～3成;少雪年夏季江淮流域及湘、黔地区少雨,华北和华南多雨.2)高原冬、春积雪不仅影响了后期高原的热状况,而且影响了后期东亚大气环流的季节变化和南亚与东亚的夏季风环流.     

BAROTROPIC AND BAROCLINIC PATTERNS OF ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATIONS RELATED TO MONSOON TYPES*

In the context of 1982-1994 NCEP/NCAR wind at 12-level isobaric surfaces on a global basis calculation is made of the barotropic(mass-weighed vertical mean) and baroclinic components(difference between the actual wind at each level and barotropic component) of atmospheric flow fields,followed by dealing with the distribution features of barotropic and baroelinie patterns globally in winter and summer,alongside with the classification of global monsoons according to the surface barotropic/baroclinic patterns.Evidence suggests that the seasonal variation of both components will lead to the reversal of a prevailing wind between winter and summer,thus causing a related monsoon:the baroclinie flow pattern is indicative of a thermal circulation driven by atmospheric inhomogeneous heating chiefly from land-sea thermal contrast whilst the barotropic counterpart represents the result mainly from dynamic effects,which is helpful to the understanding of monsoon nature.And further study shows that the classical monsoon regions in tropical Asia,Africa and South America fall into a baroclinic category,those in the bi-hemispheric subtropical Pacific into a barotropic type and the East Asian subtropical monsoon generated underthe joint action of both the patterns falls into a mixed category.     

东亚-北太平洋偶极型气压场及其与东亚季风年际变化的关系

利用美国NCEP/NCAR的月平均再分析资料,研究东亚-太平洋地区地面气压的耦合模态与东亚副热带季风异常的关系,结果表明:在亚洲大陆和北半球太平洋之间气压场的偶极子模态主要反映了东亚地区东西向气压梯度的异常.从20世纪60年代到70年代中期,东亚-太平洋的这种偶极子表现为蒙古地区气压偏低和太平洋地区气压偏高的特征,而从20世纪70年代后期到90年代,则表现为蒙古地区气压偏高和太平洋地区气压偏低的特征.在偶极子指数值较高的年份,冬季(或夏季)蒙古高压(或蒙古低压)和太平洋阿留申低压(或太平洋副热带高压)较强     

近30余年来盛夏东亚东南季风和西南季风频率的年代际变化及其与青藏高原积雪的关系

利用地面观测资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料集,使用相关分析、合成分析等方法,在将地面风分为东南季风和西南季风的基础上,分析了近30余年来盛夏东亚季风频率的年代际变化特征。结果表明:盛夏东南季风、西南季风频率和前期春季青藏高原积雪均在21世纪初期发生了显著的年代际变化;东南季风、西南季风频率由较少改变为较多,春季青藏高原积雪则由深变浅。由于青藏高原积雪厚度发生了年代际变浅,说明青藏高原发生了年代际变暖和南亚高压变强,南亚高压的年代际变强,使得其下游对流层低层(18°~28°N,108°~118°E)的反气旋性环流异常增强,有利于东亚西南季风频率的增加;同时,由于高原发生湿反馈作用,使得淮河地区降水发生年代际变多,由Sverdrup涡度平衡关系,降水的异常增多通过潜热释放,使得东亚副热带高压异常加强,而副热带高压异常变强则有利于盛夏东亚东南季风频率发生年代际增加。     

南北半球大气环流与东亚季风

本文用谐波分析,对南北半球多年平均逐月海平面气压场进行了分析,结果表明:海陆的大小和分布不同,是南北半球大气环流差异的主要原因。大陆的作用随纬度和季节而改变;夏季低纬度大陆的作用更明显,高纬度则是冬季明显。欧亚非大陆,在东亚季风形成中起了主要作用。     

亚洲夏季风的年际和年代际变化及其未来预测

本文是对我们近五年在亚洲夏季风年代际与年际变率及其未来预测方面研究的一个综述.主要包括下列三个问题:(1)根据123年中国夏季降水资料和印度学者的分析,检测出亚洲夏季风具有明显的年代际尺度减弱,这种年代际变化使中国东部(包括东亚)和南亚夏季降水的格局在过去60年中发生了明显变化.在东亚,从1970年代后期开始,主要异常雨带有不断南移的趋势,结果造成了南涝北旱的降水分布,这主要受到60～80年年代际振荡的影响.青藏高原前冬和春季积雪的年代际减少与热带中东太平洋海表温度的年代际增加是东亚降水型改变的主要原因,这是通过减弱亚洲地区夏季海陆温差与夏季风强度而实现的.未来亚洲夏季风的预测表明,东亚夏季风和南亚夏季风对气候变暖有十分不同的响应.东亚夏季风在本世纪将增强,雨带北推,尤其在2040年代之后;而南亚夏季风环流将继续减弱.这种不同的变化是由于两者对高低层海陆热力差异的不同响应造成.(2)年际尺度的变率在亚洲夏季风区主要表现为2年与4～7年的振荡.本文着重分析了2年振荡(TBO)形成的过程、机理及其对东亚降水的影响.对TBO-海洋机理进行了具体的改进,说明了东亚夏季风降水深受TBO影响的原因,尤其是阐明了长江型(YRV) TBO和淮河型(HRV) TBO的特征及其形成的循环过程.(3)在总结亚洲夏季风时期遥相关型的基础上,本文提出了季节内和年际尺度的低空遥相关型:即西北太平洋季风的遥相关型与印度“南支”和“北支”遥相关型.它们基本上反映了沿低空夏季风强风速带Rossby波群速度传播的结果.据此可以根据西北太平洋和印度夏季风的变化分别预测中国梅雨和华北雨季来临和降水异常.最后研究还表明,在本世纪亚洲夏季风可能更显著地受到人类活动造成的全球变暖的影响,未来的亚洲夏季风活动是人类排放的CO2引起的全球变暖与自然变化(海洋和陆面过程(积雪))共同作用的结果.