Eddy correlation measurements of CO2, latent heat,and sensible heat fluxes over a crop surface

Eddy correlation equipment was used to measure mass and energy fluxes over a soybean crop. A rapid response CO₂ sensor, a drag anemometer, a Lyman-alpha hygrometer and a fine wire thermocouple were used to sense the fluctuating quantities.Diurnal fluxes of sensible heat, latent heat and CO₂ were calculated from these data. Energy budget closure was obtained by summing the sensible and latent heat fluxes determined by eddy correlation which balanced the sum of net radiation and soil heat flux. Peak daytime CO₂ fluxes were near 1.0 mg m^–2 (ground area) s^–1.The eddy correlation technique was also employed in this study to measure nocturnal CO₂ fluxes caused by respiration from plants, soil, and roots. These CO₂ fluxes ranged from - 0.1 to - 0.25 mg m^–2s^–1.From the data collected over mature soybeans, a relationship between CO₂ flux and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) was developed. The crop did not appear to be light-saturated at PAR flux densities < 1800 Ei m^–2 s^–1. The light compensation point was found to be about 160 Ei m^–2 s^–1.Published as Paper No. 7402, Journal Series, Nebraska Agricultural Experiment Station. The work reported here was conducted under Nebraska Agricultural Experiment Station Project 27-003 and Regional Research Project 11–33.Post-doctoral Research Associate, Professor and Professor, respectively. Center for Agricultural Meteorology and Climatology, Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE 68583-0728.     

Carbon dioxide,water vapor and sensible heat exchanges of a grain sorghum canopy

With the aid of eddy correlation instrumentation, the components of the energy budget and CO₂ flux were measured over grain sorghum grown at Mead, Nebraska. Diurnal patterns of sensible heat, latent heat, CO₂ and momentum flux are examined for typical days. On a mostly clear day when the crop leaf area index was 3.7, net radiation reached a mid-day peak of 560 W m^-2, while sensible and latent heat fluxes peaked at 50 and 460 W m^-2, respectively. The peak CO₂ flux occurring just prior to solar noon was 1.5 mg m^-2(ground area) s^-1. CO₂ flux (respiration from plants, soil and roots) in the early evening was about -0.28 mg m^-2 (ground area) s^-1.A relationship between CO₂ flux and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) was developed. Except during the late stage of growth (growth stage 8.5, toward the initiation of senescence), the crop showed no evidence of saturation up to PAR 1800 Ei m^-2s^-1. The light compensation point was found to be about 211 Ei m^-2s^-1. Examination of CO₂ flux-PAR relationships for selected days through the season indicated an aging effect in terms of a decrease in photosynthetic activity of the sorghum canopy. Measurements made on two consecutive days demonstrate the effects of weather conditions on CO₂ flux and carbon-water flux ratio (a measure of water use efficiency of the crop). The occurrence of regional sensible heat advection with concommitant high vapor pressure deficit and air temperature-limited CO₂ exchange reduced the carbon-water flux ratio.Published as Paper No. 7717, Journal Series, Nebraska Agricultural Research Division. The work was conducted under Regional Research Project 11-33 and Nebraska Agricultural Research Division Project 27-003.Formerly Post Doctoral Research Associate (now at the University of Connecticut Department of Renewable Natural Resources Storrs CT)     

Turbulence spectra of CO2, water vapor,temperature and wind velocity fluctuations over a crop surface

A prototype rapid-response CO₂ sensor was used in conjunction with a Lyman-alpha hygrometer, fine-wire thermocouples and a three-dimensional drag anemometer to measure CO₂, humidity, temperature and wind velocity fluctuations. Measurements were made over a soybean crop grown on relatively flat terrain near Mead, Nebraska.Temperature, humidity and CO₂ spectra measured under near neutral conditions were most similar in shape while longitudinal velocity (U) spectra appeared to be somewhat broader. Peaks occurred around f = 0.02 to 0.06 (where f is the non-dimensional frequency) in all spectra except for vertical velocity which had a peak near f = 0.5. As thermal stability changed from neutral to stable, spectra exhibited lower peaks, were narrower in shape and were shifted towards higher frequencies. Opposite behavior was observed with increasing instability.Cospectra for momentum, heat, water vapor and CO₂ measured during neutral conditions had similar peak frequencies (near f = 0.15). Among the cospectra studied, CO₂ and water vapor cospectra had the greatest similarity in shape.Published as Paper No. 7481, Journal Series, Nebraska Agricultural Experiment Station. The work reported here was conducted under Nebraska Agricultural Experiment Station Project 27-003 and Regional Research Project 11-33.Post-doctoral Research Associate and Professor, respectively, Center for Agricultural Meteorology and Climatology, Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE 68583-0728.     

The increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and its implication on agricultural productivity II. Effects through CO2-induced climatic change

In a prior paper (Part I), the point was made that, assuming an unchanged climate, water use efficiency in agricultural crop production will likely be favored by the increase in CO₂ concentration projected to occur within the next half century. Since climatic changeis likely to result from the CO₂ concentration increase, its possible impacts on agricultural productivity must also be considered. An attempt to do so, using the Great Plains region of North America as a case study, is reported in this paper (Part II). A number of climatic models predict significant increases in surface temperature. Manabe and Wetherald's (1980) model provides the most specific projections for a hypothetical Northern hemisphere continent. That model also predicts an intensification of the hydrologic cycle with rainfall distribution altered so that some zones will receive more and some less as a result of a doubling in the atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The zone between 37 and 47° N latitude will suffer a reduction in availability of soil moisture. A number of regression models of grain yield as a function of temperature and precipitation have been used to anticipate the impacts of the projected climatic changes. The value of this approach is questioned. An alternative approach - the study of the migration of major agricultural crops across strong climatic gradients - is proposed. Changes in the geographical distribution of the hard red winter wheat zone in North America provide an example. The point is also made that factorscurrently limiting food production must be considered in order to predict the possible impacts of any given climatic change. In the central Great Plains today, the energy consumed by evapotranspiration often exceeds that supplied by net radiation since sensible heat advection from dryer regions to the south and west provides a major additional input of energy. If, as models project, the excess of precipitation over evaporation increases south of 37° N, the advection of sensible heat and, hence, the rates of evapotranspiration and degree of water stress on growing plants could be reduced in the adjacent regions to the north. Published as Paper No. 6123, Journal Series, Nebraska Agricultural Experiment Station. The work reported was conducted under Regional Research Project 11-033 and Nebraska Agricultural Station Project 11-049. George Holmes Professor of Agricultural Meteorology, Center for Agricultural Meteorology and Climatology, Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, Nebraska, 68583-0728.     

Kolmogorov constants for CO2, wind velocity,air temperature,and humidity fluctuations over a crop surface

The Kolmogorov constants for CO₂, wind velocity, air temperature, and humidity fluctuations were evaluated from measurements made over soybean and grain sorghum fields and found to be 0.78 ± 0.11, 0.49 ± 0.08, 0.70 ± 0.15, and 0.99 ± 0.16, respectively. These results are consistent with recent observations reported in the literature.Published as Paper No. 7255, Journal Series, Nebraska Agricultural Experiment Station. The work reported here was conducted under Regional Research Project 11-33 and Nebraska Agricultural Experiment Station Project 27-003.Associate Professor and Post Doctoral Research Associate, respectively, Center for Agricultural Meteorology and Climatology, Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE, U.S.A., 68583-0728.     

Implications of atmospheric CO2 enrichment and climatic change for the geographical distribution of two introduced vines in the U.S.A.

The continuing increase in the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration resulting from fossil fuel combustion and deforestation may change the ecological impact and geographical distribution of kudzu (Pueraria lobata Ohwi) and Japanese honeysuckle (Lonicera japonica Thunb.) in the U.S.A. Both vines were introduced about a century ago from Japan and have become naturalized weeds. Westward range expansion is currently limited by drought during seedling establishment, while northward range expansion is limited by low temperature sensitivity of overwintering stems.Direct effects of CO₂ enrichment on growth were assessed by growing the plants in controlled environment chambers at 350, 675, or 1000 l/L CO₂. In both species, CO₂ enrichment increased instantaneous water use efficiency by increasing photosynthetic rates and reducing transpiration rates. During a drought stress, CO₂ enrichment delayed significant decline in total water potential of kudzu by several days. When grown in a cool temperature regime of 18/12 °C day/night, the CO₂ enrichment significantly increased leaf area and total biomass of both species and plants were taller and had more branches. These results suggested that atmospheric CO₂ enrichment may allow westward and northward spread of both species in the U.S.A.Indirect effects of CO₂ induced climate change (Greenhouse Effect) on the vines' distribution were assessed. Predictions based on current models of climatic response were used to project changes in winter temperatures at doubled CO₂ concentrations. Increases in average and minimum winter temperatures by 3 °C could allow northward spread of both species by several hundred kilometers. Projected decreases in summer precipitation may minimize westward spread, despite improved water use efficiency and increased drought tolerance.This study was supported by NSF Grant No. BSR82-15533 and Contract No. DEAS05-83ER06177 from the Carbon Dioxide Research Office, Dept. of Energy to B. R. Strain and NSF Grant No. BSR83-14925 for the Duke University Phytotron.     

Eddy correlation measurement of CO2 flux using a closed-path sensor: Theory and field tests against an open-path sensor

We have examined the potential of using a closed-path sensor to accurately measure eddy fluxes of CO₂. Five inlet tubeflow configurations were employed in the experimental setup. The fluxes of CO₂ were compared against those measured with an open-path sensor. Sampling air through an intake tube causes a loss of flux, due to the attenuation of CO₂ density fluctuations. Adjustments need to be made to correct for this loss and to account for density effects due to the simultaneous transfer of heat and water vapor. Theory quantifying these effects is discussed.The raw CO₂ flux measured with the closed-path sensor was smaller than that measured with the open-path sensor by about 15% (on average) for the turbulent tubeflow configurations with a short (3 m) intake tube, by 31% for turbulent tubeflow with a longer (6 m) intake tube and by 24% for laminar tubeflow. The difference was, in part, caused by tube attenuation of the CO₂ density fluctuations and inadequate sensor time response. The elimination of the flux adjustment for the simultaneous transfer of sensible heat (i.e., the attenuation of ambient temperature fluctuations in the intake tube) generally accounted for the rest of this difference.The raw flux measured with the closed-path sensor was corrected for frequency response and density effects. Except in the case of laminar tubeflow, the corrected closed-path flux agreed consistently with the corrected open-path flux within a few percent (<5%). These results suggest that closed-path sensors, with appropriate corrections, can be used to measure CO₂ flux accurately. Recommendations are included on selecting an optimum flow configuration to minimize the effect of sampling air through a tube.Published as Paper No. 9938, Journal Series, Nebraska Agricultural Research Division.     

Leaf-level gas exchange and scaling-up of forest understory carbon fixation rates with a “patch-scale” canopy model

Summary During the Hartheim experiment (HartX) 1992, conducted in the Upper Rhine Valley, Germany, we estimated water vapor flux from the understory by several methods as reported in Wedler et al. (this issue). We also examined the photosynthetic gas exchange of the dominant understory speciesBrachypodium pinnatum, Carex alba, andCarex flacca at the leaf level with an CO₂/H₂O porometer. A mechanisticallybased leaf gas exchange model was parameterized for these understory species and validated via the measured diurnal courses of carbon dioxide exchange. Leaf CO₂ gas exchange was scaled-up to patch- and then to stand-level utilizing the leaf gas exchange model as a component of the canopy light interception/energy balance model GAS-FLUX, and by further considering variation in vegetation patch-type distribution, patch-specific spatial structure, patch-type leaf area index, and microclimate beneath the tree canopy.At patch-level,C. alba exhibited the lowest net CO₂ uptake of ca. 75 mmol m^–2 d^–1 due to a low leaf-level photosynthetic capacity, whereas net CO₂ fixation ofB. pinnatum- andC. flacca-patches was approx. 178 and 184 mmol m^–2 d^–1, respectively. Highest CO₂ uptake was estimated for mixed patches whereB. pinnatum grew together with the sedge speciesC. alba orC. flacca. Scaling-up of leaf gas exchange to stand level resulted in an estimated average rate of total CO₂ fixation by the graminoid understory patches of approximately 93 mmol m^–2 d^–1 during the HartX period. The conservative gas exchange behavior ofC. alba at Hartheim and its apparent success in space capture seems to affect overall functioning of this pine forest ecosystem by limiting understory CO₂ uptake. The CO₂ uptake by the understory is approximately 20% of stand total CO₂ uptake. CO₂ uptake fluxes mirror the relative differences in water loss from the understory and crown layer during the HartX period. Comparative measurements indicate that understory vegetation in spruce and pine forests is not greatly different from that of other low-statured natural ecosystems such as tundra or marshes under high light conditions, although CO₂ capture by the understory at Hartheim is at the low extreme of the estimates, apparently due to the success ofC. alba. With 6 Figures     

A first-order global model of late Cenozoic climatic change II. Further analysis based on a simplification of CO2 dynamics

A model developed recently for the long-term variations of global ice mass, carbon dioxide, and mean ocean temperature through the late Cenozoic is simplified by hypothesizing a new equation for the CO₂ variations containing one less adjustable parameter, but retaining the essential physical content of the previous equation (including nonlinearity and the potential for instability). By assuming plausible time constants for the glacial ice mass and global mean ocean temperature, and setting the values of six adjustable parameters (rate constants), a solution for the last 5 My is obtained displaying many of the features observed over this period, including the transition to the near-100 ky major ice-age oscillations of the late Pleistocene. In obtaining this solution it is also assumed that variations in tectonic forcing lead to a reduction of the equilibrium CO₂ concentration (perhaps due to increased weathering of rapidly uplifted mountain ranges over this period). As a consequence of this CO₂ reduction, the model dynamical system can bifurcate to a free oscillatory ice-age regime that is under the pacemaker influence of earthorbital (Milankovitch) forcing. Expanded discussions are given of the surface temperature variations accompanying the evolution of ice, CO₂, and ocean temperature, and of the bifurcation properties of the model from both mathematical and physical viewpoints.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dumenil     

Modelling the equilibrium and transient responses of global temperature to past and future trace gas concentrations

Recent works with energy balance climate models and oceanic general circulation models have assessed the potential role of the world ocean for climatic changes on a decadal to secular time scale. This scientific challenge is illustrated by estimating the response of the global temperature to changes in trace gas concentration from the pre-industrial epoch to the middle of the next century. A simple energetic formulation is given to estimate the effect on global equilibrium temperature of a fixed instantaneous radiative forcing and of a time-dependent radiative forcing. An atmospheric energy balance model couple to a box-advection-diffusion ocean model is then used to estimate the past and future global climalic transient response to trace-gas concentration changes. The time-dependent radiative perturbation is estimated from a revised approximate radiative parameterization, and the recent reference set of trace gas scenarios proposed by Wuebbles et al. (1984) are adopted as standard scenarios. Similar computations for the past and future have recently been undertaken by Wigley (1985), but using a purely diffusive ocean and slightly different trace gas scenarios. The skill of the socalled standard experiment is finally assessed by examining the model sensitivity of different parameters such as the equilibrium surface air temperature change for a doubled CO₂ concentration [T _ae (2×CO₂)], the heat exchange with the deeper ocean and the trace gas scenarios. For T _ae (2×CO₂) between 1 K and 5 K, the following main results are obtained: (i) for a pre-industrial CO₂, concentration of 270 ppmv, the surface air warming between 1850 and 1980 ranges between 0.4 and 1.4 K (if a pre-industrial CO₂ concentration of 290 ppmv is chosen, the range is between 0.3 and 1 K); (ii) by comparison with the instantaneous equilibrium computations, the deeper ocean inertia induces a delay which amounts to between 6 years [for lower T _ae (2×CO₂)] and 23 years [for higher Tae(2×CO₂)] in 1980; (iii) for the standard future CO₂ and other trace gas scenarios of Wuebbles et al., the surface air warming between 1980 and 2050 is calculated to range between 0.9 and 3.4 K, with a delay amounting to between 7 years and 32 years in 2050 when compared to equilibrium computations.     

On Measuring Net Ecosystem Carbon Exchange Over Tall Vegetation on Complex Terrain

To assess annual budgets of CO₂ exchange betweenthe biosphere and atmosphere over representativeecosystems, long-term measurements must be made overecosystems that do not exist on ideal terrain. How tointerpret eddy covariance measurements correctlyremains a major task. At present, net ecosystemCO₂ exchange is assessed, by members of themicrometeorological community, as the sum of eddycovariance measurements and the storage of CO₂ inthe underlying air. This approach, however, seemsunsatisfactory as numerous investigators are reportingthat it may be causing nocturnal respiration fluxdensities to be underestimated.A new theory was recently published by Lee (1998, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 91: 39–50) for assessing net ecosystem-atmosphere CO₂ exchange(N_e) over non-ideal terrain. Itincludes a vertical advection term. We apply thisequation over a temperate broadleaved forest growingin undulating terrain. Inclusion of the verticaladvection term yields hourly, daily and annual sums ofnet ecosystem CO₂ exchange that are moreecologically correct during the growing season.During the winter dormant period, on the other hand,corrected CO₂ flux density measurements of anactively respiring forest were near zero. Thisobservation is unrealistic compared to chambermeasurements and model calculations. Only duringmidday, when the atmosphere is well-mixed, domeasurements of N_e match estimatesbased on model calculations and chamber measurements. On an annual basis, sums of N_ewithout the advection correction were 40% too large,as compared with computations derived from a validatedand process-based model. With the inclusion of theadvection correction term, we observe convergencebetween measured and calculated values ofN_e on hourly, daily and yearly time scales. We cannot, however, conclude that inclusion of aone-dimensional, vertical advection term into thecontinuity equation is sufficient for evaluatingCO₂ exchange over tall forests in complexterrain. There is an indication that the neglected term,( c¯/ x), isnon-zero and that CO₂ may be leakingfrom the sides of the control volume during the winter. In this circumstance, forest floor CO₂ effluxdensities exceed effluxes measured above the canopy.     

The carbon isotopic ratio of atmospheric carbon dioxide at Tsukuba,Japan

To find out the secular and seasonal trends of the ¹³C value and CO₂ concentration in the surface air and the determination of the ¹³C in the atmospheric CO₂ collected at Tsukuba Science City was carried out during the period from July 1981 to October 1983. The monthly average of the ¹³C value of CO₂ in the surface air collected at 1400 LMT ranged from -7.52 to \s-8.45 with an average of -7.96±0.25 and the CO₂ concentration in the air varied from 334.5 l 1^-1 to 359 l 1^-1 with an average of 347.2±6.3 l 1^-1. The ¹³C value is high in summer and low in winter and is negatively correlated with the CO₂ concentration. In general, the relationship between the ¹³C and the CO₂ concentration is explainable by a simple mixing model of two different constant carbon isotopic species but the relationship does not always follow the model. The correlation between the ¹³C value and the CO₂ concentration is low during the plant growth season and high at other times. The observed negative deviation of the ¹³C value from the simple mixing model in the plant growth season is partly due to the isotopic fractionation process which takes place in the land biota.     

Equilibrium and transient climatic warming induced by increased atmospheric CO2

The change in the Earth's equilibrium global mean surface temperature induced by a doubling of the CO₂ concentration has been estimated as 0.2 to 10 K by surface energy balance models, 0.5 to 4.2 K by radiative-convective models, and 1.3 to 4.2 K by general circulation models. These wide ranges are interpreted and quantified here in terms of the direct radiative, forcing of the increased CO₂, the response of the climate system in the absence of feedback processes, and the feedbacks of the climate system. It is the range in the values of these feedbacks that leads to the ranges in the projections of the global mean surface warming. The time required for a CO₂-induced climate change to reach equilibrium has been characterized by an e-folding time _e with values estimated by a variety of climate/ocean models as 10 to 100 years. Analytical and numerical studies show that this wide range is due to the strong dependence of _e on the equilibrium sensitivity of the climate model and on the effective vertical thermal diffusivity of the ocean model. A coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulation for doubled CO₂ suggestes that, as a result of the transport of the CO₂-induced surface heating into the interior of the ocean, _e 50 to 100 years. Theoretical studies for a realistic CO₂ increase between 1850 and 1980 indicate that this sequestering of heat into the ocean's interior is responsible for the concomittant warming being only about half that which would have occurred in the absence of the ocean. These studies also indicate that the climate sytem will continue to warm towards its as yet unrealized equilibrium temperature change, even if there is no further increase in the CO₂ concentration.     

Carbon dioxide,water vapor and sensible heat fluxes over a tallgrass prairie

Fluxes of CO₂, water vapor and sensible heat were measured in a grassland ecosystem near Manhattan, Kansas, employing the eddy correlation technique. The vegetation at this site is dominated by big bluestem (Andropogon gerardii), switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), and indiangrass (Sorghastrum nutans). Diurnal patterns of the energy budget components and CO₂ fluxes are evaluated on a few selected days. Influence of high atmospheric evaporative demand and low availability of soil water are examined on (a) energy partitioning, and (b) the magnitudes and patterns of atmospheric carbon dioxide exchange.Published as Paper No. 8470, Journal Series, Nebraska Agricultural Research Division.     

Choosing a Stabilization Target for CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>

The choice of stabilization target for CO₂ concentration depends on the following: what is considered to be dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system; the forcings that might arise from non-CO₂ gases; and the climate sensitivity. These three factors are specified here probabilistically, as probability density functions (pdfs), and combined to produce a pdf for the CO₂ concentration target. There is a probability of 17% that the stabilization target should be less than the present level, and the median target is 536 ppm. The effects of reducing the emissions of non-CO₂ gases and/or implementing adaptation strategies are considered probabilistically and shown to alter these figures significantly.     

Mechanisms of shrubland expansion: land use,climate or CO2?

Encroachment of trees and shrubs into grasslands and the thicketization of savannas has occurred worldwide over the past century. These changes in vegetation structure are potentially relevant to climatic change as they may be indicative of historical shifts in climate and as they may influence biophysical aspects of land surface-atmosphere interactions and alter carbon and nitrogen cycles. Traditional explanations offered to account for the historic displacement of grasses by woody plants in many arid and semi-arid ecosystems have centered around changes in climatic, livestock grazing and fire regimes. More recently, it has been suggested that the increase in atmospheric CO₂ since the industrial revolution has been the driving force. In this paper we evaluate the CO₂ enrichment hypotheses and argue that historic, positive correlations between woody plant expansion and atmospheric CO₂ are not cause and effect.Please direct all correspondence to the senior author.     

Historical and experimental evidence for enhanced concentration of artemesinin,a global anti-malarial treatment,with recent and projected increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide

Although the role of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration [CO₂] on plant growth and fecundity is widely acknowledged as important within the scientific community; less research is available regarding the impact of [CO₂] on secondary plant compounds, even though such compounds can play a significant role in human health. At present, Artemisia annua, an annual plant species native to China, is widely recognized as the primary source of artemesinin used in artemesinin combination therapies or ACTs. ACTs, in turn, are used globally for the treatment of simple Plasmodium falciparum malaria, the predominant form of malaria in Africa. In this study, artemesinin concentration was quantified for multiple A. annua populations in China using a free-air CO₂ enrichment (FACE) system as a function of [CO₂]-induced changes both in situ and as a function of the foliar ratio of carbon to nitrogen (C:N). The high correlation between artemesinin concentration and C:N allowed an historical examination of A. annua leaves collected at 236 locations throughout China from 1905 through 2009. Both the historical and experimental data indicate that increases in artemesinin foliar concentration are likely to continue in parallel with the ongoing increase in atmospheric [CO₂]. The basis for the [CO₂]-induced increase in artemesinin is unclear, but could be related to the carbon: nutrient hypothesis of Bryant et al. (1983). Overall, these data provide the first evidence that historic and projected increases in atmospheric [CO₂] may be associated with global changes in artemesinin chemistry, potentially allowing a greater quantity of drug available for the same area of cultivation.     

Multiforced statistical assessments of greenhouse-gas-induced surface air temperature change 1890–1985

Based on univariate correlation and coherence analyses and considering the physical basis of the relationships, a simple multiforced (multiple) statistical concept is used which correlates observational climatic time series simultaneously with volcanic, solar, ENSO, and the anthropogenic greenhouse gases forcing. This is appropriate to remove some natural climate noise in the observed data and to evaluate the components (signals) possibly due to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing (CO₂, or equivalent CO₂ implying additional gases) during industrial time. In this paper, we apply this technique to 100 global box data time series 1890–1985, of the surface air temperature, using observed data from Hansen and Lebedeff. The results are presented in terms of latitudinal-seasonal and regional trends, where the observed trend patterns are compared with the hypothetical signals (statistical assessments) possibly due to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing. These latter signals can be amplified to enable a comparison with corresponding results from general circulation model (GCM) CO₂ doubling experiments. These observed-statistical assessments lead to results which are, at least qualitatively and in respect to the zonal mean temperatures, very similar to some GCM experiments indicating the maximum CO₂ doubling signals (statistical assessment > 12 K) in the arctic winter. However, these signals are moderate in the tropics and in the Southern Hemisphere (global average 2.8–4.4 K). As far as the industrial signals are concerned (observed period) these signals are somewhat larger (maximum 7 K, global average 0.5–0.9 K) than the observed trends (maximum 5 K, global average 0.5 K). Phase shifts of cause and effect may amplify these signals but are very uncertain.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dümenil     

Carbon Storage in Terrestrial Ecosystems of China: Estimates at Different Spatial Resolutions and Their Responses to Climate Change

The carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems in China was estimated using acommon carbon density method for vegetation and soils relating to thevegetation types. Usingmedian density estimates, carbon storage of 35.23 Gt (1 Gt = 10¹⁵g) in biomass and119.76 Gt in soils with total of 154.99 Gt were calculated based on thebaseline distribution of37 vegetation types. Total carbon storage of the median estimates at differentspatial resolutionswas 153.43, 158.08 and 158.54 Gt, respectively, for the fine (10),median (20) and coarse (30)latitude × longitude grids. There were differences of –1.56, +3.09and +3.55 Gt carbon storagebetween baseline vegetation and those at different spatial resolutions. Changein mappingresolution would change area estimates and hence carbon storage estimates. Thefiner the spatialresolution in mapping vegetation, the closer the carbon storage to thebaseline estimation. Carbonstorage in vegetation and soils for baseline vegetation is quite similar tothat of biomes predictedby BIOME3 for the present climate and CO₂ concentration of 340ppmv. Climate changealone as well as climate change with elevated CO₂ concentrationwill produce an increasein carbon stored by vegetation and soils, especially a larger increase in thesoils. Total mediancarbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems in China will increase by 5.09 Gt and15.91 Gt for theclimate scenario at CO₂ concentration of 340 ppmv and 500 ppmv,respectively. This ismainly due to changes in vegetation areas and the effects of changes inclimate and CO₂concentration.     

Local temperature estimation under climate change

Summary A methodology to estimate the space-time distribution of daily mean temperature under climate change is developed and applied to a central Nebraska case study. The approach is based on the analysis of the Markov properties of atmospheric circulation pattern (CP) types, and a stochastic linkage between daily (here 500hPa) CP types and daily mean temperatures. Historical data and general circulation model (GCM) output of daily CP corresponding to 1 × CO₂ and 2 × CO₂ scenarios are considered. The relationship between spatially averaged geopotential height of the 500 hPa surface — within each CP type — and daily mean temperature is described by a nonparametric regression technique. Time series of daily mean temperatures corresponding to each of these cases are simulated and their statistical properties are compared. Under the climate of central Nebraska, the space-time response of daily mean temperature to global climate change is variable. In general, a warmer climate appears to cause about 5°C increase in the winter months, a smaller increase in other months with no change in July and August. The sensitivity of the results to the GCM utilized should be considered.On leave from the Department of Meteorology, Eötvós Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary.With 14 Figures