印度洋地震海啸(2004-12-26)及其对中国的警示

2004年12月26日印度尼西亚苏门答腊岛西北近海发生ML9级强烈地震。地震的强度是100a来全球非常罕见的。地震引起了巨大海啸,浪高近10m,波及到东南亚、南亚和东非地区10多个国家,造成近30万人遇难。地震使印度尼西亚、泰国的部分岛屿发生了地形变化。海啸在受灾国留下了大片的盐碱地。苏门答腊板块边缘的一个长距离破裂带通过长时间积累,蓄积了巨大能量。这些能量在2004-12-26集中释放出来。导致了这次地震海啸的发生。地震海啸灾害本身规模巨大,发生异常突然,再加上受灾地区人员密集,缺乏海啸灾害逃生的知识和经验。印度洋沿岸国家没有海啸预警系统,是造成这次灾害巨大伤亡的原因。中国从台湾-海南岛一线的海区,存在地震海啸的可能性。因此应不断完善海啸预警系统,提高沿海地区建设工程的防灾抗灾标准,加强防波堤建设以及采取恢复红树林等生物工程措施,预防潜在的海啸灾害。     

Awareness of tsunami natural warning signs and intended evacuation behaviors in Java,Indonesia

Natural Hazards - The south coast of Java has a long history of deadly seismogenic tsunamis. The most recent tsunami events in 1994 and 2006 killed hundreds due to lack of awareness and...     

Community readiness for a new tsunami warning system: quasi-experimental and benchmarking evaluation of a school education component

Youth preparedness for disasters is a growing area of research. However, studies to date have relied on cross-sectional, correlational research designs. The current study replicated aspects of the one other study to date that has used a quasi-experimental strategy to evaluate youth preparedness for disasters. This study evaluated whether children were more knowledgeable and prepared for hazards generally but also in more specific relation to the rollout of a new tsunami warning system. Using a pretest–posttest with benchmarking design, the study found that following a brief school education program, supplementing a larger community-wide effort, children reported significant gains in preparedness indicators including increased knowledge as well as increases in physical and psychosocial preparedness. Within group effect sizes compared favorably with those from the previous experimental study in this area used to benchmark current intervention-produced findings and produced hints that combining school education programs with larger community preparedness efforts can enhance preparedness. Given that this is only one of two experimentally-based studies in an area of research largely dominated by cross-sectional designs, future research should consider the use of experimental designs, including those that are pragmatic and fit with needs of the school. The current approach has limitations that need to be considered. However, it also has some real advantages, including being used more extensively in fieldwork studies that evaluate various types of interventions. Through increased use of experimental design strategies, researchers can then also have increased confidence that educational programs are the source of increases in disaster resilience in youth and their families.     

Diatom biostratigraphy of tsunami deposits: Examples from the 1998 Papua New Guinea tsunami

Distinctive diatom assemblages may be associated with tsunami sediments and may often contrast with the assemblages found within sediments underlying the tsunami deposit as well as those associated with the modern coastal environment. Sediments associated with the 1998 tsunami that destroyed much of the Sissano lagoon area in northern Papua New Guinea have been investigated. Surface sediments from three transects across the sediment spit near Warapu have been examined for diatom content and preservation. The preservation is variable, and the data show an, often chaotic, assemblage that can be attributed to the tsunami waves incorporating and depositing diatoms from distinctive habitat zones during their runup and subsequent backwash. The diatoms identified within the Warapu sediments indicate an origin from within the inter-tidal and offshore area rather than from the beach–sand spit complex. The sand deposits disclose a high percentage, in excess of 75%, of broken diatom valves, and a predominance of centric (circular) species due to preferential preservation. The study demonstrates that the application of diatom biostratigraphy to modern tsunami deposits can be used in conjunction with other stratigraphical lines of evidence to interpret the source and provenance of historical and palaeo-tsunami deposits.     

Identification of tsunami deposits considering the tsunami waveform: An example of subaqueous tsunami deposits in Holocene shallow bay on southern Boso Peninsula, Central Japan

This study proposes a tsunami depositional model based on observations of emerged Holocene tsunami deposits in outcrops located in eastern Japan. The model is also applicable to the identification of other deposits, such as those laid down by storms. The tsunami deposits described were formed in a small bay of 10–20-m water depth, and are mainly composed of sand and gravel. They show various sedimentary structures, including hummocky cross-stratification (HCS) and inverse and normal grading. Although, individually, the sedimentary structures are similar to those commonly found in storm deposits, the combination of vertical stacking in the tsunami deposits makes a unique pattern. This vertical stacking of internal structures is due to the waveform of the source tsunamis, reflecting: 1) extremely long wavelengths and wave period, and 2) temporal changes of wave sizes from the beginning to end of the tsunamis.

The tsunami deposits display many sub-layers with scoured and graded structures. Each sub-layer, especially in sandy facies, is characterized by HCS and inverse and normal grading that are the result of deposition from prolonged high-energy sediment flows. The vertical stack of sub-layers shows incremental deposition from the repeated sediment flows. Mud drapes cover the sub-layers and indicate the existence of flow-velocity stagnant stages between each sediment flow. Current reversals within the sub-layers indicate the repeated occurrence of the up- and return-flows.

The tsunami deposits are vertically divided into four depositional units, Tna to Tnd in ascending order, reflecting the temporal change of wave sizes in the tsunami wave trains. Unit Tna is relatively fine-grained and indicative of small tsunami waves during the early stage of the tsunami. Unit Tnb is a protruding coarse-grained and thickest-stratified division and is the result of a relatively large wave group during the middle stage of the tsunami. Unit Tnc is a fine alternation of thin sand sheets and mud drapes, deposited from waning waves during the later stage of the tsunami. Unit Tnd is deposited during the final stage of the tsunami and is composed mainly of suspension fallout. Cyclic build up of these sub-layers and depositional units cannot be explained by storm waves with short wave periods of several to ten seconds common in small bays.     

X‐ray tomography of tsunami deposits: Towards a new depositional model of tsunami deposits

X‐ray computed microtomography is used to obtain high resolution imagery of a historical tsunami deposit in Andalusia, Spain (1755 Lisbon tsunami). The technique allows characterization of grain‐size distribution, structures, component analysis and sedimentary fabric of fine‐grained unconsolidated tsunami deposits at resolutions down to particle scale. The results are validated by comparing to data obtained using other techniques such as laser diffraction, anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility and X‐ray microfluorescence on the same deposits. Specific technical details such as sampling, scanning and image processing methods, and further improvements are addressed. The use of X‐ray computed microtomography provides new insights into the stratigraphy of the deposits and gives access to significantly more detailed view of key sedimentary features such as mudlines, rip‐up clasts, crude laminations, convolutions, floating outsized clasts and contacts between successive units. This analysis of the 1755 tsunami deposits using X‐ray computed microtomography allows the proposal of new hypotheses for the sedimentary processes forming tsunami deposits. Deposition by settling is limited and the section analysed here is dominated by a high shear stress leading to the development of traction carpets, with laminated mudlines corresponding to the basal frictional region of these carpets. The onset of the tsunami backwash is marked by a micro‐vortex resembling Kelvin–Helmoltz instabilities.     

Contamination of tsunami sediments in a coastal zone inundated by the 26 December 2004 tsunami in Thailand

Tsunami sediments deposited in a coastal zone of Thailand by the 26 December 2004 tsunami wave were sampled within 50 days after the event. All surface and ground waters in tsunami- inundated zone revealed significant salinity at that time. The tsunami sediments, composed mainly of fine to medium sand, contain significantly elevated contents of salts (Na⁺, K⁺, Ca⁺², Mg⁺², Cl and SO ₄ ⁻² ) in water-soluble fraction, and of Cd, Cu, Zn, Pb in the bioavailable fraction and As in the exchangeable fraction in relation to the reference sample. The origin of contaminants is marine, as well as litho- and anthropogenic. The salts and Pb, Zn and Cu reveal high correlation to each other and to the mean grain size (pore size and porosity). Serious environmental hazard exists in that region because, due to gentle morphology, there is a risk of migration of the contaminants into ground waters and food chain.     

Seismic parameters controlling far-field tsunami amplitudes: A review

We present a review of the influence of various parameters of the sources of major oceanic earthquakes on the amplitude of tsunamis at transoceanic distances. We base our computations on the normal mode formalism, applied to realistic Earth models, but interpret our principal results in the simpler framework of Haskell theory in the case of a water layer over a Poisson half-space. Our results show that source depth and focal geometry play only a limited role in controlling the amplitude of the tsunami; their combined influence reaches at most 1 order of magnitude down to a depth of 150 km into the hard rock. More important are the effects of directivity due to rupture propagation along the fault, which for large earthquakes can result in a ten-fold decrease in tsunami amplitude by destructive interference, and the possibility of enhanced tsunami excitation in material with weaker elastic properties, such as sedimentary layers. Modelling of the so-called tsunami earthquakes suggests that an event for which 10% of the moment release takes place in sediments generates a tsunami 10 times larger than its seismic moment would suggest. We also investigate the properties of non-double couple sources and find that their relative excitation of tsunamis and Rayleigh waves is in general comparable to that of regular seismic sources. In particular, landslides involving weak sediments could result in very large tsunamis. Finally, we emphasize that the final amplitude at a receiving shore can be strongly affected by focusing and defocusing effects, due to variations in bathymetry along the path of the tsunami.     

A Holocene tsunami deposit in eastern Scotland

A thin, regionally extensive, laterally persistent sand layer identified within the Holocene coastal sequences of eastern Scotland, dated to 7000 years BP, is suggested to be a tsunami deposit. The likely source of the tsunami wave is the earthquake induced second Storegga Slide on the Norwegian continental slope at least 750 km northeast of the deposit.     

Ostracods as tsunami tracers in Holocene sequences

This review analyses the ostracod record in Holocene tsunami deposits, using an overview of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami impact on its recent populations and the associated tsunamigenic deposits, together with results from numerous investigations of other Holocene sequences. Different features such as the variability of the local assemblages, population density, species diversity, age population structure (e.g., percentages of adults and juvenile stages) or taphonomical signatures suggest that these microorganisms may be included amongst the most promising tracers of these high-energy events in marshes, lakes, lagoons or shallow marine areas.     

The 1979 nice airport tsunami: mapping of the flood in Antibes

On 16 October 1979, a tsunami of a local origin hits the French Riviera around Nice, France, killing 8 people and generating important economic losses. Its impact was felt from Hyères to Menton, France. The main effect of this tsunami was flooding in the neighborhoods of La Salis and La Garoupe, Antibes, France. A synthesis of unpublished reports written in the context of an administrative investigation was conducted. Various archives were also consulted (newspapers, fire and rescue unit reports, insurance reports, etc.), and a field survey was organized in 2009 to record testimonies from the inhabitants who witnessed the flood in La Salis, Antibes, the area where the effects of the tsunami were the greatest. A geo-database of the neighborhood of La Salis was built using available aerial imagery, land cover data and digital terrain models, to reconstruct the surface of the flooded area as it was in 1979 and as it is now. Comparing precise testimonies and the 1979 topographic information available allowed the authors to precisely map the flood and to deduce the runup values which reached 3.5 m locally, with a maximal distance of flooding of 150 m inland. This paper provides modelers with precious information about the extent of flooding and the time sequence in order to reconstitute the propagation and flooding of the 16 October 1979 tsunami. This information highlights the fact that the French Riviera is a low hazard, but high vulnerability area.     

Modelling December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami: a coastal study

December 2004 tsunami in the Indian Ocean region has been simulated using MIKE-21 HD model. The vertical displacement of the seabed is incorporated into the numerical simulation by using time-varying bathymetry data. In the open ocean, sea surface height from altimeter observation has been used to validate the model results. To the west of the rupture zone, the crest is observed to precede the trough of the tsunami waves while to the east, trough preceded the crest. The model performance along the coastal region has been validated using de-tided sea levels from tide gauge measurements at Tuticorin, Chennai, Vishakapattanam, and Paradip ports along the east coast of India. Unique coastal characteristics of the tsunami waves, wave height, and wave celerity are reasonably simulated by the numerical model. Spectral analysis of tide gauge observations and corresponding model results has been done, and the distribution of frequency peaks from the analysis of gauge observations and the model results is observed to have a reasonable comparison. Low-frequency waves, contributed from the coastally trapped edge waves, are found to dominate both the tide gauge observations and the model results. The subsequent increase in the tsunami wave height observed at Chennai, Vishakapattanam, and Paradip has been explained on the basis of coastally trapped edge waves. From the validation studies using altimeter data and tide gauge data, it is observed that the model can be used effectively to simulate the tsunami wave height in the offshore as well as in the coastal region with satisfying performance.     

Misattributed tsunami: Chile, Sumatra and the subduction model

Tsunami intensity is poorly correlated with earthquake magnitude. The distribution of aftershocks that immediately followed the 2010 Maule (Chile), the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman and the 2005 Nias (Indonesia) events supports the view that faulting within an accretionary wedge or an outer rise can sometimes disrupt the seafloor more effectively than a megathrust even if the associated seismicity is minor. Monitoring offshore faults would thus seem an effective way to supplement modes of tsunami early warning which hinge on instrumental earthquake detection or wave height and period.     

Assessment of tsunami hazard in the Italian seas

A method for the evaluation of tsunami potential in the seas surrounding Italy is presented. A major difficulty for performing reliable estimates of tsunami occurrence is that the existing tsunami catalog for Italy includes a small number of cases. This is due partly to the catalog incompleteness, strangely more pronounced in our century, and partly to the relative infrequency of tsunamis along the Italian seas. Evaluation of tsunami activity is therefore deduced by complementing the tsunami catalog data with data on seismicity that are by far more abundant and reliable. Analysis of seismicity and assessment of earthquake rate in coastal and submarine regions form the basis of the present method to perform tsunami potential estimates for Italy. One essential limitation of the method is that only tsunamis of seismic origin are taken into account, which leads to an underestimation of the tsunami potential. Since tsunamis generated by earthquakes are much more frequent than events produced by slumps or volcanic eruptions, the underestimation is not dramatic and very likely affects only a limited portion of the Italian coasts. In the present application of the method, eight separate regions have been considered that together cover all the coasts of Italy. In each region, seismicity has been independently examined and the earthquake potential has been calculated in small 20 × 20 cells. Then, on the basis of suitable assumptions, tsunami potential has been evaluated in each cell. According to this study, the Italian coasts that are the most exposed to the attacks of locally generated tsunamis are to be found in the Messina Straits, in Tyrrhenian coasts of Calabria, in the Ionian Sicilian coasts around Catania, and in the Gargano promontory in the Southern Adriatic Sea. Furthermore, this study confirms that the Northern Adriatic Sea has a low level of tsunami potential, in agreement with recent studies emphasizing that the large historical events concerning this region included in the first versions of the Italian tsunami catalog are largely overestimated and must be decreased.     

Thinking outside the polygon: a study of tornado warning perception outside of warning polygon bounds

When the National Weather Service (NWS) issues a tornado warning, the alert is rapidly and widely disseminated to individuals in the general area of the warning. Historically, the assumption has been that a false-negative warning perception (i.e., when someone located within a warning polygon does not believe they have received a tornado warning) carries a higher cost than a false-positive warning perception (i.e., when someone located outside the warning area believes they have received a warning). While many studies investigate tornado warning false alarms (i.e., when the NWS issues a tornado warning, but a tornado does not actually occur), less work focuses on studying individuals outside of the warning polygon bounds who believe they received a warning (i.e., false-positive perceptions). This work attempts to quantify the occurrence of false-positive perceptions and possible factors associated with the rate of occurrence. Following two separate storm events, Oklahomans were asked whether they perceived a tornado warning. Their geolocated responses were then compared to issued warning polygons. Individuals closer to tornado warnings or within a different type of warning (e.g., a severe thunderstorm warning) are more likely to report a false-positive perception than those farther away or outside of other hazard warnings. Further work is needed to understand the rate of false-positive perceptions across different hazards and how this may influence warning response and trust in the National Weather Service.

     

Evaluation of tsunami impacts on shallow marine sediments: An example from the tsunami caused by the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, northern Japan

A combined approach of field geology and numerical simulation was conducted for evaluating the tsunami impacts on the shelf sediments. The 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, M 8.0, that occurred on 25 September 2003 off southeastern Hokkaido, northern Japan, generated a locally destructive tsunami. Maximum run-up height of the tsunami waves reached 4 m above sea level. In order to estimate the tsunami impacts on shallow marine sediments, we compared pre- and post-tsunami marine sediments in water depths of 38–112 m in terms of grain size, sedimentary structure, and microfossil content. Decreases of fine fractions, especially finer than very fine sand, which led to coarsen the mean grain size, were detected in the inner shelf of the northern part of the study area. Foraminiferal assemblages also changed in the coarsened sediments. On the other hand, the other shelf sediments largely unchanged or slightly fined. We also simulated the tsunami wave velocity and direction, and grain size entrained by the modeled tsunami. The numerical simulation resulted in that the 2003 tsunami could transport very fine sand in water depths shallower than 45–95 m at the northern part of the study area. This is comparable with the actual grain-size changes after the tsunami had passed. However, some storms and tidal currents might also be possible to stir the surface sediments after the pre-tsunami survey, so we could not conclude that the grain-size changes had been caused only by the tsunami. Nevertheless, a combined approach of sampling and modeling was powerful for estimating the tsunami impacts under the sea.     

Identification and characterization of tsunami deposits off southeast coast of India from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami: Rock magnetic and geochemical approach

The December 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami (IOT) had a major impact on the geomorphology and sedimentology of the east coast of India. Estimation of the magnitude of the tsunami from its deposits is a challenging topic to be developed in studies on tsunami hazard assessment. Two core sediments (C1 and C2) from Nagapattinam, southeast coast of India were subjected to textural, mineral, geochemical and rock-magnetic measurements. In both cores, three zones (zone I, II and III) have been distinguished based on mineralogical, geochemical and magnetic data. Zone II is featured by peculiar rock-magnetic, textural, mineralogical and geochemical signatures in both sediment cores that we interpret to correspond to the 2004 IOT deposit. Textural, mineralogical, geochemical and rock-magnetic investigations showed that the tsunami deposit is featured by relative enrichment in sand, quartz, feldspar, carbonate, SiO ₂, TiO ₂, K ₂O and CaO and by a depletion in clay and iron oxides. These results point to a dilution of reworked ferromagnetic particles into a huge volume of paramagnetic materials, similar to what has been described in other nearshore tsunami deposits (Font et al. 2010). Correlation analysis elucidated the relationships among the textural, mineral, geochemical and magnetic parameters, and suggests that most of the quartz-rich coarse sediments have been transported offshore by the tsunami wave. These results agreed well with the previously published numerical model of tsunami induced sediment transport off southeast coast of India and can be used for future comparative studies on tsunami deposits.     

滑坡监测预警国内外研究现状及评述

本文从降雨临界值研究、监测技术方法、区域性监测预警系统三个方面对滑坡监测预警的国内外研究现状进行了回顾和总结。首先归纳了国内外28个国家或地区的滑坡降雨临界值及统计方法,三个模型——日降雨量模型、前期降雨量模型和前期土体含水状态模型,基本概括了当前降雨诱发滑坡临界值的确定方法;但由于降雨入渗触发滑坡的复杂性,不同机理的滑坡"需要"不同的降雨临界值;目前的研究趋势是对雨量雨强雨时—土体渗流场动态变化—土体抗剪强度变化的耦合关系进行研究。按监测对象的不同,滑坡监测可分为四大类,即位移监测、物理场监测、地下水监测和外部诱发因素监测;按监测手段的不同,则可分为人工监测、简易监测、专业监测三大类;目前国内外在滑坡监测技术、方法、手段上并无太大差距,专业仪器已成为常规设备,只是由于价格因素得不到普及;一些新技术如InSAR、三维激光扫描等能很快应用到滑坡监测领域;监测数据的采集和传输也都实现了自动化和远程化;监测和预警系统有向Web—GIS发展的趋势。利用一个地区的滑坡易发区划或危险区划,结合降雨临界值,可以设定不同的预警级别,在区内布设一定数量的雨量站,监测雨量加上预报雨量,就可进行滑坡预警预报,国内外的区域性降雨型滑坡监测预警大体都是这个思路和做法,该方法在对公众进行警示方面起到了良好效果,但由于预警的范围太大,在具体的单点防治上,难以做到有效。我国在近10年开展了大量的监测预警工作,并取得了丰硕的成果,但根据统计数据,其成功预警率却并不理想,这一方面表现在成功预警实例中专业预警所占比例过低,另一方面同时表现在发生的大量的地质灾害在已有的预警点之外。制约目前工作有效性的主要问题是滑坡隐患点的排查和识别问题,因为只有识别出了隐患点才能进行下一步的监测和预警,它是一切工作的基础。而解决这一问题的重要途径是分析区域上的滑坡发育规律,找到有效的隐患点识别技术方法,以及引进风险管理的概念,进行监测资源的合理分配和有效预警。     

The Holocene Storegga Slide tsunami in the United Kingdom

All currently known sites in the United Kingdom with evidence for the Holocene Storegga Slide tsunami are described. Information on the altitude, distribution, stratigraphical context, age, particle size profile and microfossil characteristics of the deposits is presented. The tsunami involved a greater area than previously described, reaching a coastline over 600 km long. The ubiquitous sand layer which forms the main deposit associated with the event is shown to exhibit a consistent morphology and a particle size profile marked by fining-upwards sequences. An analysis of new and previously published radiocarbon dates indicates that from evidence in the United Kingdom, the event took place sometime around 7100 radiocarbon years BP (7900 calibrated years BP). A new isobase model for mainland Scotland and adjacent areas, providing a preliminary estimate of land uplift since the tsunami, is presented. The model estimates contemporary sea surface level offshore at 14 m below the present day mean high water spring tides. Tsunami sediment run-up is greatest in inlets, where it reaches at least 25 m on Shetland and at least 5 m along the mainland coastline to the south, and run-up of the tsunami would have exceeded these values. The tsunami sediments identified here are considered particularly valuable as a synchronous marker horizon.