Effects of Spatiotemporal Constraints on Geostatistical Analysis of Groundwater Depth

Geostatistical evaluation of the groundwater depth (GWD) in California's South Coast hydrologic region, and its sensitivity to different spatiotemporal assumptions, is presented in this paper. We obtain a pseudo-stationary representation of the groundwater depth, using the publicly available, online database from the GAMA GeoTracker project, while tracking the associated uncertainty throughout the process. We create nine different sub-datasets, using different temporal constraints, such as seasonal partitioning and different long-term variability filtering criteria. The geostatistical analysis and comparison between the different maps highlight the trade-off between spatial and temporal accuracy. For example, when moving to stricter filtering criteria, despite removing a large number of sites from the interpolation, the root mean squared error (RMSE) calculated in the analysis either decreased or only slightly increased. This suggests that the long-term variability filter is a good representation of the GWD accuracy and that the cross-validation RMSE captures both the stability effect as well as spatial density of the measurement points. We further find that the point-specific standard error is strongly correlated with the associated GWD prediction and that the mean relative error is approximately 60% of the prediction. Hence, it is highly recommended to account for such error in a forward-engineering application, by introducing a GWD distribution rather than a single value into the analysis. Finally, we analyze seasonal fluctuations in the study region and find that they are on average 2.5 m with a standard deviation of 8 m.     

Climate change,population trends and groundwater in Africa

Abstract

Global climate change is affecting Africa, as it is every other continent and region of the world. The absolute poverty of a large proportion of the continent's people renders them highly vulnerable to changes in climate. Mitigation of climate change is a global imperative. However, numerous other changes continue apace, notably population growth, natural resource degradation, and rural—urban migration. Probably 50% or more of the continent's population rely on groundwater. This paper explores the relative impacts of changes in climate, demography and land use/cover on groundwater resources and demands. It concludes that the climate change impacts are likely to be significant, though uncertain in direction and magnitude, while the direct and indirect impacts of demographic change on both water resources and water demand are not only known with far greater certainty, but are also likely to be much larger. The combined effects of urban population growth, rising food demands and energy costs, and consequent demand for fresh water represent real cause for alarm, and these dwarf the likely impacts of climate change on groundwater resources, at least over the first half of the 21st century.     

Groundwater Development Stress: Global‐Scale Indices Compared to Regional Modeling

The increased availability of global datasets and technologies such as global hydrologic models and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have resulted in a growing number of global‐scale assessments of water availability using simple indices of water stress. Developed initially for surface water, such indices are increasingly used to evaluate global groundwater resources. We compare indices of groundwater development stress for three major agricultural areas of the United States to information available from regional water budgets developed from detailed groundwater modeling. These comparisons illustrate the potential value of regional‐scale analyses to supplement global hydrological models and GRACE analyses of groundwater depletion. Regional‐scale analyses allow assessments of water stress that better account for scale effects, the dynamics of groundwater flow systems, the complexities of irrigated agricultural systems, and the laws, regulations, engineering, and socioeconomic factors that govern groundwater use. Strategic use of regional‐scale models with global‐scale analyses would greatly enhance knowledge of the global groundwater depletion problem.     

Groundwater for People and the Environment: A Globally Threatened Resource

The intensity of global groundwater use rose from 124 m³ per capita in 1950 to 152 m³ in 2021, for a 22.6% rise in the annual per capita use. This rise in global per capita water use reflects rising consumption patterns. The global use of groundwater, which provides between 21% and 30% of the total freshwater annual consumption, will continue to expand due to the sustained population growth projected through most of the 21st century and the important role that groundwater plays in the water-food-energy nexus. The rise in groundwater use, on the other hand, has inflicted adverse impacts in many aquifers, such as land subsidence, sea water intrusion, stream depletion, and deterioration of groundwater-dependent ecosystems, groundwater-quality degradation, and aridification. This paper projects global groundwater use between 2025 and 2050. The projected global annual groundwater withdrawal in 2050 is 1535 km³ (1 km³ = 10⁹ m³ = 810,713 acre-feet). The projected global groundwater depletion, that is, the excess of withdrawal over recharge, in 2050 equals 887 km³, which is about 61% larger than in 2021. This projection signals probable exacerbation of adverse groundwater-withdrawal impacts, which are worsened by climatic trends and the environmental requirement of groundwater flow unless concerted national and international efforts achieve groundwater sustainability.     

Optimal allocation of water and land resources for maximizing the farm income and minimizing the irrigation-induced environmental problems

The continuous decrease in good quality water and land resources and concurrent increase in global population accentuates the need of optimal allocation of these resources to fulfilling the rising food requirements. This study presents the formulation and application a management model for the optimal allocation of available good quality water and land resources to maximize the farm revenue of a canal command area. A groundwater balance constraint was imposed on the model, which moderates the irrigation-induced environmental problems of waterlogging and salinization, while making the optimal allocation of resources. The model results show a reduction in mustard, rice, and gram crop areas against an increase in sorghum, millets, and wheat areas. The net annual revenue from the command area increased by about 18 % under the optimal allocation plans. The farmers and stakeholders concerned in the actual agricultural production process are suggested to use groundwater and canal water conjunctively to maximizing the farm income. This strategy would also mitigate the hydrological imbalances to the groundwater system without installing costly drainage systems which is not viable as the quality of groundwater is poor and drainage water may cause a serious disposal problem. The developed model can be used as a reliable decision tool for taking the farm and regional level decisions of optimal land and water resources allocation and is able to solve the irrigation-induced environmental problems of agricultural systems.     

Importance of Spatial Resolution in Global Groundwater Modeling

Global-scale gradient-based groundwater models are a new endeavor for hydrologists who wish to improve global hydrological models (GHMs). In particular, the integration of such groundwater models into GHMs improves the simulation of water flows between surface water and groundwater and of capillary rise and thus evapotranspiration. Currently, these models are not able to simulate water table depth adequately over the entire globe. Unsatisfactory model performance compared to well observations suggests that a higher spatial resolution is required to better represent the high spatial variability of land surface and groundwater elevations. In this study, we use New Zealand as a testbed and analyze the impacts of spatial resolution on the results of global groundwater models. Steady-state hydraulic heads simulated by two versions of the global groundwater model G³M, at spatial resolutions of 5 arc-minutes (9 km) and 30 arc-seconds (900 m), are compared with observations from the Canterbury region. The output of three other groundwater models with different spatial resolutions is analyzed as well. Considering the spatial distribution of residuals, general patterns of unsatisfactory model performance remain at the higher resolutions, suggesting that an increase in model resolution alone does not fix problems such as the systematic overestimation of hydraulic head. We conclude that (1) a new understanding of how low-resolution global groundwater models can be evaluated is required, and (2) merely increasing the spatial resolution of global-scale groundwater models will not improve the simulation of the global freshwater system.     

Impact of water withdrawals from groundwater and surface water on continental water storage variations

Humans have strongly impacted the global water cycle, not only water flows but also water storage. We have performed a first global-scale analysis of the impact of water withdrawals on water storage variations, using the global water resources and use model WaterGAP. This required estimation of fractions of total water withdrawals from groundwater, considering five water use sectors. According to our assessment, the source of 35% of the water withdrawn worldwide (4300 km³/year during 1998–2002) is groundwater. Groundwater contributes 42%, 36% and 27% of water used for irrigation, households and manufacturing, respectively, while we assume that only surface water is used for livestock and for cooling of thermal power plants. Consumptive water use was 1400 km³/year during 1998–2002. It is the sum of the net abstraction of 250 km³/year of groundwater (taking into account evapotranspiration and return flows of withdrawn surface water and groundwater) and the net abstraction of 1150 km³/year of surface water. Computed net abstractions indicate, for the first time at the global scale, where and when human water withdrawals decrease or increase groundwater or surface water storage. In regions with extensive surface water irrigation, such as Southern China, net abstractions from groundwater are negative, i.e. groundwater is recharged by irrigation. The opposite is true for areas dominated by groundwater irrigation, such as in the High Plains aquifer of the central USA, where net abstraction of surface water is negative because return flow of withdrawn groundwater recharges the surface water compartments. In intensively irrigated areas, the amplitude of seasonal total water storage variations is generally increased due to human water use; however, in some areas, it is decreased. For the High Plains aquifer and the whole Mississippi basin, modeled groundwater and total water storage variations were compared with estimates of groundwater storage variations based on groundwater table observations, and with estimates of total water storage variations from the GRACE satellites mission. Due to the difficulty in estimating area-averaged seasonal groundwater storage variations from point observations of groundwater levels, it is uncertain whether WaterGAP underestimates actual variations or not. We conclude that WaterGAP possibly overestimates water withdrawals in the High Plains aquifer where impact of human water use on water storage is readily discernible based on WaterGAP calculations and groundwater observations. No final conclusion can be drawn regarding the possibility of monitoring water withdrawals in the High Plains aquifer using GRACE. For the less intensively irrigated Mississippi basin, observed and modeled seasonal groundwater storage reveals a discernible impact of water withdrawals in the basin, but this is not the case for total water storage such that water withdrawals at the scale of the whole Mississippi basin cannot be monitored by GRACE.     

Groundwater Storage Changes: Present Status from GRACE Observations

Satellite gravity measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) provide quantitative measurement of terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes with unprecedented accuracy. Combining GRACE-observed TWS changes and independent estimates of water change in soil and snow and surface reservoirs offers a means for estimating groundwater storage change. Since its launch in March 2002, GRACE time-variable gravity data have been successfully used to quantify long-term groundwater storage changes in different regions over the world, including northwest India, the High Plains Aquifer and the Central Valley in the USA, the North China Plain, Middle East, and southern Murray–Darling Basin in Australia, where groundwater storage has been significantly depleted in recent years (or decades). It is difficult to rely on in situ groundwater measurements for accurate quantification of large, regional-scale groundwater storage changes, especially at long timescales due to inadequate spatial and temporal coverage of in situ data and uncertainties in storage coefficients. The now nearly 13 years of GRACE gravity data provide a successful and unique complementary tool for monitoring and measuring groundwater changes on a global and regional basis. Despite the successful applications of GRACE in studying global groundwater storage change, there are still some major challenges limiting the application and interpretation of GRACE data. In this paper, we present an overview of GRACE applications in groundwater studies and discuss if and how the main challenges to using GRACE data can be addressed.     

A global hydrological model for deriving water availability indicators: model tuning and validation

Freshwater availability has been recognized as a global issue, and its consistent quantification not only in individual river basins but also at the global scale is required to support the sustainable use of water. The WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model WGHM, which is a submodel of the global water use and availability model WaterGAP 2, computes surface runoff, groundwater recharge and river discharge at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. WGHM is based on the best global data sets currently available, and simulates the reduction of river discharge by human water consumption. In order to obtain a reliable estimate of water availability, it is tuned against observed discharge at 724 gauging stations, which represent 50% of the global land area and 70% of the actively discharging area. For 50% of these stations, the tuning of one model parameter was sufficient to achieve that simulated and observed long-term average discharges agree within 1%. For the rest, however, additional corrections had to be applied to the simulated runoff and discharge values. WGHM not only computes the long-term average water resources of a country or a drainage basin but also water availability indicators that take into account the interannual and seasonal variability of runoff and discharge. The reliability of the modeling results is assessed by comparing observed and simulated discharges at the tuning stations and at selected other stations. The comparison shows that WGHM is able to calculate reliable and meaningful indicators of water availability at a high spatial resolution. In particular, the 90% reliable monthly discharge is simulated well. Therefore, WGHM is suited for application in global assessments related to water security, food security and freshwater ecosystems.     

Changes in groundwater runoff under the effect of climate and anthropogenic impact

Quantitative relationships between groundwater runoff and other water balance components are obtained. These relationships enable the prediction of changes in groundwater nourishment in different natural-geographic zones on the Earth because of global climatic changes and intense anthropogenic impact on the water regime of different areas. Groundwater runoff values (natural groundwater resources) in individual river basins are estimated. Digital maps (grid-models) of the space and time distribution of water balance elements (based on GIS-technology) are constructed for major river basins in European Russia, and river runoff is calculated in each grid node in river basins with a step of 0.1° in geographic coordinates. The values of major water balance components, thus related with one another, serve as the basis for their spatial and temporal analysis and cartographic representation. The proposed method was tested against data on Volga basin where long-term observational data on water balance elements are available in a number of hydrometric sections.     

Impact on food security and rural development of transferring water out of agriculture

The competition for limited water resources between agriculture and more highly valued domestic and industrial water uses is rapidly increasing and will likely require the transfer of water out of agriculture. This paper reviews and synthesizes the available evidence of the effects of water transfers from agricultural to urban and industrial areas on local and regional rural economies; and analyzes the possible impacts of a large reallocation on global food supply and demand. It concludes with a discussion of the potential for water policy reform and demand management to minimize adverse impacts when water is reallocated from agriculture. It is argued that comprehensive reforms are required to mitigate the potentially adverse impacts of water transfers for local communities and to sustain crop yield and output growth to meet rising food demands at the global level. Key policy reforms include the establishment of secure water rights to users; the decentralization and privatization of water management functions to appropriate levels; the use of incentives including pricing reform, especially in urban contexts, and markets in tradable property rights; and the introduction of appropriate water-saving technologies.     

Modeling groundwater–surface water interactions using the Dupuit approximation

Global errors in head and/or discharge may be introduced when groundwater flow to a stream is modeled using the Dupuit approximation. We consider a simple case of steady groundwater flow in the vertical plane to a horizontal stream bed in direct connection with the aquifer, and compare solutions to the exact problem with Dupuit solutions where common representations of the stream are chosen. In all cases considered, adopting the Dupuit approximation introduces global errors into the mathematical model, and the magnitude of the errors depends on the regional flow conditions. This behavior makes calibration of a model difficult and limits the predictive abilities of the model under conditions of changed regional flow. The global errors and their dependence on flow conditions can be minimized, but not eliminated by treating the resistance of a fictitious leaky stream bed as an effective parameter.We propose an alternate Dupuit model of groundwater–surface water interaction and demonstrate, for the case considered, that adding a second effective parameter allows us to eliminate global errors in head and discharge, and eliminate the dependence of the effective values on the flow field. Explicit expressions are provided to evaluate the two effective properties. We propose that the results be used as a general guideline for modeling groundwater–surface water interaction at streams.     

The effects of climate change on potential groundwater recharge in Great Britain

The predicted increase in mean global temperature due to climate change is expected to affect water availability and, in turn, cause both environmental and societal impacts. To understand the potential impact of climate change on future sustainable water resources, this paper outlines a methodology to quantify the effects of climate change on potential groundwater recharge (or hydrological excess water) for three locations in the north and south of Great Britain. Using results from a stochastic weather generator, actual evapotranspiration and potential groundwater recharge time‐series for the historic baseline 1961–1990 and for a future ‘high’ greenhouse gas emissions scenario for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s time periods were simulated for Coltishall in East Anglia, Gatwick in southeast England and Paisley in west Scotland. Under the ‘high’ gas emissions scenario, results showed a decrease of 20% in potential groundwater recharge for Coltishall, 40% for Gatwick and 7% for Paisley by the end of this century. The persistence of dry periods is shown to increase for the three sites during the 2050s and 2080s. Gatwick presents the driest conditions, Coltishall the largest variability of wet and dry periods and Paisley little variability. For Paisley, the main effect of climate change is evident during the dry season (April–September), when the potential amount of hydrological excess water decreases by 88% during the 2080s. Overall, it is concluded that future climate may present a decrease in potential groundwater recharge that will increase stress on local and regional groundwater resources that are already under ecosystem and water supply pressures. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

What impact will climate change have on rural groundwater supplies in Africa?

Abstract

One of the key uncertainties surrounding the impacts of climate change in Africa is the effect on the sustainability of rural water supplies. Many of these water supplies abstract from shallow groundwater (<50 m) and are the sole source of safe drinking water for rural populations. Analysis of existing rainfall and recharge studies suggests that climate change is unlikely to lead to widespread catastrophic failure of improved rural groundwater supplies. These require only 10 mm of recharge annually per year to support a hand pump, which should still be achievable for much of the continent, although up to 90 million people may be affected in marginal groundwater recharge areas (200–500 mm annual rainfall). Lessons learnt from groundwater source behaviour during recent droughts, substantiated by groundwater modelling, indicate that increased demand on dispersed water points, as shallow unimproved sources progressively fail, poses a much greater risk of individual source failure than regional resource depletion. Low yielding sources in poor aquifers are most at risk. Predicted increased rainfall intensity may also increase the risk of contamination of very shallow groundwater. Looking to the future, an increase in major groundwater-based irrigation systems, as food prices rise and surface water becomes more unreliable, may threaten long-term sustainability as competition for groundwater increases. To help prepare for increased climate variability, it is essential to understand the balance between water availability, access to water, and use/demand. In practice, this means increasing access to secure domestic water, understanding and mapping renewable and non-renewable groundwater resources, promoting small-scale irrigation and widening the scope of early warning systems and mapping to include access to water.     

Evolution of Quaternary groundwater system in North China Plain

The Quaternary groundwater system in the North China Plain is formed mainly through the terrestrial water flow action on the united geological and tectonic backgrounds. The analysis of groundwater dynamic field, simulation of groundwater geochemistry, and the¹⁴C dating and extraction of isotope information have provided more evidence for recognizing and assessing the evolution of groundwater circulation system and studying the past global changes. The exploitation and utilization of groundwater on a large scale and overexploitation have given rise to the decline of regional groundwater level, change of flow field, decrease of water resources and downward movement of saline water body. The water environment has entered a new evolution stage in which it is intensely disturbed by the mankind’s activities. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.     

Detection of Continental Hydrology and Glaciology Signals from GRACE: A Review

Since its launch in March 2002, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has provided a global mapping of the time-variations of the Earth’s gravity field. Tiny variations of gravity from monthly to decadal time scales are mainly due to redistributions of water mass inside the surface fluid envelops of our planet (i.e., atmosphere, ocean and water storage on continents). In this article, we present a review of the major contributions of GRACE satellite gravimetry in global and regional hydrology. To date, many studies have focused on the ability of GRACE to detect, for the very first time, the time-variations of continental water storage (including surface waters, soil moisture, groundwater, as well as snow pack at high latitudes) at the unprecedented resolution of ~400–500 km. As no global complete network of surface hydrological observations exists, the advances of satellite gravimetry to monitor terrestrial water storage are significant and unique for determining changes in total water storage and water balance closure at regional and continental scales.     

Evaluating the source and seasonality of submarine groundwater discharge using a radon-222 pore water transport model

Pore water radon (²²²Rn) distributions from Indian River Lagoon, Florida, are characterized by three zones: a lower zone where pore water ²²²Rn and sediment-bound radium (²²⁶Ra) are in equilibrium and concentration gradients are vertical; a middle zone where ²²²Rn is in excess of sediment-bound ²²⁶Ra and concentration gradients are concave-downward; and an upper zone where ²²²Rn concentration gradients are nearly vertical. These ²²²Rn data are simulated in a one-dimensional numerical model including advection, diffusion, and non-local exchange to estimate magnitudes of submarine groundwater discharge components (fresh or marine). The numerical model estimates three parameters, fresh groundwater seepage velocity, irrigation intensity, and irrigation attenuation, using two Monte Carlo (MC) simulations that (1) ensure the minimization algorithm converges on a global minimum of the merit function and the parameter estimates are consistent within this global minimum, and (2) provide 90% confidence intervals on the parameter estimates using the measured ²²²Rn activity variance. Model estimates of seepage velocities and discharge agree with previous estimates obtained from numerical groundwater flow models and seepage meter measurements and show the fresh water component decreases offshore and varies seasonally by a factor of nine or less. Comparison between the discharge estimates and precipitation patterns suggests a mean residence time in unsaturated and saturated zones on the order of 5 to 7 months. Irrigation rates generally decrease offshore for all sampling periods. The mean irrigation rate is approximately three times greater than the mean seepage velocity although the ranges of irrigation rates and seepage velocities are the same. Possible mechanisms for irrigation include density-driven convection, wave pumping, and bio-irrigation. Simulation of both advection and irrigation allows the separation of submarine groundwater discharge into fresh groundwater and (re)circulated lagoon water.     

Sea water intrusion by sea-level rise: scenarios for the 21st century

This study presents a method to assess the contributions of 21st-century sea-level rise and groundwater extraction to sea water intrusion in coastal aquifers. Sea water intrusion is represented by the landward advance of the 10,000 mg/L iso-salinity line, a concentration of dissolved salts that renders groundwater unsuitable for human use. A mathematical formulation of the resolution of sea water intrusion among its causes was quantified via numerical simulation under scenarios of change in groundwater extraction and sea-level rise in the 21st century. The developed method is illustrated with simulations of sea water intrusion in the Seaside Area sub-basin near the City of Monterey, California (USA), where predictions of mean sea-level rise through the early 21st century range from 0.10 to 0.90 m due to increasing global mean surface temperature. The modeling simulation was carried out with a state-of-the-art numerical model that accounts for the effects of salinity on groundwater density and can approximate hydrostratigraphic geometry closely. Simulations of sea water intrusion corresponding to various combinations of groundwater extraction and sea-level rise established that groundwater extraction is the predominant driver of sea water intrusion in the study aquifer. The method presented in this work is applicable to coastal aquifers under a variety of other scenarios of change not considered in this work. For example, one could resolve what changes in groundwater extraction and/or sea level would cause specified levels of groundwater salinization at strategic locations and times.     

Theory and Method for Identifying Well Water Level Anomalies in a Groundwater Overdraft Area

The overexploitation of underground water leads to the continuous drawdown of groundwater levels, change of water quality and dry-up in dynamic water level observation wells. Due to land subsidence, the well pipes uplift and the observation piping systems are damaged. These environmental geology problems can present serious difficulties for the identification of earthquake anomalies by groundwater level observation. Basied on hydrogeological theories and methods, the paper analyzes the relations of the water balance state of aquifers with stress-strain conditions and the water level regime, and then discusses preliminarily the theory and method for identifying well water level anomalies in a groundwater overdraft area. The result shows that we can accurately judge the nature of the anomaly according to the diffusion character of the drawdown funnel in the well area in combination with the aforementioned theory and method and multi-year variation patterns obtained from existing data. The results of the research are helpful for distinguishing the influence of single centralized water pumping from the long-term overdraft of water on the water level, correctly recognizing water level anomalies in the groundwater overdraft area and increasing the level of earthquake analysis and prediction.