铁路客运专线路基沉降预测的新方法

路基的工后沉降控制是高速铁路建设的重要问题之一,利用铁路客运专线路基现场观测数据,找出相应的路基沉降规律有利于指导设计与施工。在分析武广铁路客运专线路基大量数据的基础上,将三点法的基本思想引入到双曲线模型,建立了基于双曲线模型的三点法。其具体做法是：在实测沉降曲线上选取3个适当的点作为预测样本,代入双曲线模型进行预测。为了检验新方法,运用常用的双曲线方法、三点法、Asaoka法、星野法、泊松曲线法进行对比分析,并且提出了新方法的取点控制条件。研究表明：基于双曲线模型的三点法的预测误差小、相关系数高、与实测数据吻合较好,具有一定的实用价值,为铁路客运专线无砟轨道铺设的沉降预测问题提供了参考。     

双曲线法、指数曲线法和Asaoka法在汕揭高速公路的对比分析

预测路基沉降是软土地区高速公路建设需要解决的重要问题.结合汕揭高速公路路基沉降实测数据,对双曲线法、指数曲线法、Asaoka法等常见的沉降预测方法在软土地区的精准度进行研究.结果表明,双曲线法及Asaoka法拟合曲线与实测数据较为吻合,适用于汕揭高速公路的沉降预测.同时分别对影响双曲线预测法和Asaoka预测法准确度的主要因素进行了分析,明确如何提高其预测精准度.     

曲线拟合法对路基小变形情形适用性研究

双曲线法、三点法、指数曲线法和Asaoka法等曲线拟合法在软土路基的沉降预测中已经得到广泛应用,但在路基小变形情形的应用研究尚少。结合某铁路客运专线施工现场观测的路基小变形数据,对这4种方法,探讨了时间起点和样本值的起止时间间隔对相关系数的影响,且验算后期观测值的预测效果;并综合考虑了相关系数和相对误差,研究每种方法的适用性;指出了4种拟合方法在路基小变形情形应用的优缺点。研究表明：数据的波动会造成指数曲线法无法计算;沉降数据波动较小时,双曲线法、三点法、Asaoka法的拟合效果均较好;当沉降数据波动较大时,仅三点法、Asaoka法的拟合效果较好,双曲线法较差。     

高原湖相沉积软土地基沉降计算经验系数的推算

高原湖相沉积软土压缩模量偏低,地基沉降计算深度范围内压缩模量当量值有时会小于2.5MPa,超出了规范沉降计算经验系数计算依据的取值范围,且具有沉降量偏大的特点。本文根据昆明地区某软土地基实测沉降资料,分别运用了三点法、双曲线法、Asaoko法拟合了最终沉降量,并与规范分层总和法的地基沉降量相比得到了6个沉降计算经验系数值,据此分析给出了压缩模量当量值2.05~4.15MPa时沉降计算经验系数的拟合曲线方程,提出了压缩模量当量值1.5~2.0MPa时沉降计算经验系数的建议值,弥补了在高原湖相软土地区沉降计算经验系数取值范围不足的问题。     

Land subsidence susceptibility mapping at Kinta Valley (Malaysia) using the evidential belief function model in GIS

Land subsidence is one of the frequent geological hazards worldwide. Urban areas and agricultural industries are the entities most affected by the consequences of land subsidence. The main objective of this study was to estimate the land subsidence (sinkhole) hazards at the Kinta Valley of Perak, Malaysia, using geographic information system and remote sensing techniques. To start, land subsidence locations were observed by surveying measurements using GPS and using the tabular data, which were produced as coordinates of each sinkhole incident. Various land subsidence conditioning factors were used such as altitude, slope, aspect, lithology, distance from the fault, distance from the river, normalized difference vegetation index, soil type, stream power index, topographic wetness index, and land use/cover. In this article, a data-driven technique of an evidential belief function (EBF), which is in the category of multivariate statistical analysis, was used to map the land subsidence-prone areas. The frequency ratio (FR) was performed as an efficient bivariate statistical analysis method in order compare it with the acquired results from the EBF analysis. The probability maps were acquired and the results of the analysis validated by the area under the (ROC) curve using the testing land subsidence locations. The results indicated that the FR model could produce a 71.16 % prediction rate, while the EBF showed better prediction accuracy with a rate of 73.63 %. Furthermore, the success rate was measured and accuracies of 75.30 and 79.45 % achieved for FR and EBF, respectively. These results can produce an understanding of the nature of land subsidence as well as promulgate public awareness of such geo-hazards to decrease human and economic losses.     

Long-term groundwater storage changes and land subsidence development in the North China Plain (1971–2015)

The North China Plain (NCP) has been suffering from groundwater storage (GWS) depletion and land subsidence for a long period. This paper collects data on GWS changes and land subsidence from in situ groundwater-level measurements, literature, and satellite observations to provide an overview of the evolution of the aquifer system during 1971–2015 with a focus on the sub-regional variations. It is found that the GWS showed a prolonged declining rate of ?17.8?±?0.1 mm/yr during 1971–2015, with a negative correlation to groundwater abstraction before year ~2000 and a positive correlation after ~2000. Statistical correlations between subsidence rate and the GWS anomaly (GWSA), groundwater abstraction, and annual precipitation show that the land subsidence in three sub-regions (Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei) represents different temporal variations due to varying driver factors. Continuous drought caused intensive GWS depletion (?76.1?±?6.5 mm/yr) and land subsidence in Beijing during 1999–2012. Negative correlations between total groundwater abstraction and land subsidence exhibited after the 1980s indicate that it may be questionable to infer subsidence from regional abstraction data. Instead, the GWSA generally provides a reliable correlation with subsidence. This study highlights the spatio-temporal variabilities of GWS depletion and land subsidence in the NCP under natural and anthropogenic impacts, and the importance of GWS changes for understanding land subsidence development.     

软土路基后期沉降推算方法及误差分析

以某高速公路软基处理断面实测沉降资料为基础,分别对应用较为广泛的7种后期沉降推算方法的精度及误差进行了比较分析。针对每一种推算方法,研究了计算时间起点和时间跨度对推算精度的影响,并探讨了各种方法的优缺点及适用性。研究表明,常用的双曲线法和指数曲线法的推算精度与推算的时间起点关系较大,建议以恒载期3～5个月后为时间起点,取较长时间的沉降资料进行推算,可有效提高推算精度;三点法、沉降速率法和新野法的推算精度较高,且与计算时间起点和时间跨度的关系不大,但都需要对原始观测数据进行特殊处理,计算较为复杂;Asaoka法的推算结果与实测值最为接近,其缺点在于无法对停止加载后某阶段的沉降进行推求。     

堆石料应力-应变关系的拟合方法研究

堆石料大量的大型三轴剪切试验结果表明,其轴向应变与径向应变关系并不完全符合双曲线关系,而是可以分成两段,依次用双曲线关系和直线关系来拟合,提出了一个计算两段关系拐点处径向应变的公式,对Duncan-Chang模型中泊松比的计算进行了修正。根据堆石料应力-应变关系试验结果,提出了一个用8参数拟合其应力-应变关系和体变关系的拟合方法,并将通过此方法得到的计算结果与试验结果进行对比,验证了拟合方法的精度。     

线状和面状群井抽水导致场外地面沉降呈s-lnr线性关系

在单井抽水造成地面沉降符合s-lnr线性关系的基础上,应用积分的方法,对线状和面状群井抽水产生的地面沉降进行推导,得出群井抽水导致地面沉降的积分公式。对于场外远处,即距抽水中心距离远大于抽水区域长度或宽度的情况,对沉降积分公式进行简化,仍可得到场外地面沉降呈s-lnr线性关系的结果。选取第三方文献中的理论解、数值解和工程实例对以上研究成果进行拟合验证,相关系数分别为99.91%、98.67%、96.60%、99.63%、99.43%,所以线状和面状群井抽水导致场外地面沉降呈s-lnr线性关系的理论分析结果得到极好验证。     

On causes and impacts of land subsidence in Bandung Basin, Indonesia

The Bandung Basin is a large intra-montane basin surrounded by volcanic highlands, in western Java, Indonesia, inhabited by more than seven million people. The basin, an area of about 2,300 km², is a highland plateau at approximately 650–700 m above sea level and is surrounded by up to 2,400 m high Late Tertiary and Quaternary volcanic terrain. Based on the results of nine GPS surveys conducted since 2000 up to 2011, it was shown that several locations in the Bandung Basin have experienced land subsidence, with an average rate of about ?8 cm/year and can go up to about ?23 cm/year in certain locations. A hypothesis has been proposed by several studies that land subsidence observed in several locations in the Bandung Basin has been caused mainly by excessive groundwater extraction. It is found that there is a strong correlation between the rates of groundwater level lowering with the GPS-derived rates of land subsidence in several locations in Bandung Basin. The GPS results in this study detected significant subsidence in the textile industry area, where very large volumes of groundwater are usually extracted. The impact of land subsidence in Bandung can be seen in several forms, mainly in the cracking and damage of houses, buildings and infrastructure. Land subsidence also aggravates the flooding in Bandung Basin, which has brought huge economic losses and deteriorated the quality of life and environment in the affected areas.     

Three-dimensional numerical modeling of land subsidence in Shanghai,China

Shanghai, in China, has experienced two periods of rapid land subsidence mainly caused by groundwater exploitation related to economic and population growth. The first period occurred during 1956–1965 and was characterized by an average land subsidence rate of 83 mm/yr, and the second period occurred during 1990–1998 with an average subsidence rate of 16 mm/yr. Owing to the establishment of monitoring networks for groundwater levels and land subsidence, a valuable dataset has been collected since the 1960s and used to develop regional land subsidence models applied to manage groundwater resources and mitigate land subsidence. The previous geomechanical modeling approaches to simulate land subsidence were based on one-dimensional (1D) vertical stress and deformation. In this study, a numerical model of land subsidence is developed to simulate explicitly coupled three-dimensional (3D) groundwater flow and 3D aquifer-system displacements in downtown Shanghai from 30 December 1979 to 30 December 1995. The model is calibrated using piezometric, geodetic-leveling, and borehole extensometer measurements made during the 16-year simulation period. The 3D model satisfactorily reproduces the measured piezometric and deformation observations. For the first time, the capability exists to provide some preliminary estimations on the horizontal displacement field associated with the well-known land subsidence in Shanghai and for which no measurements are available. The simulated horizontal displacements peak at 11 mm, i.e. less than 10 % of the simulated maximum land subsidence, and seems too small to seriously damage infrastructure such as the subways (metro lines) in the center area of Shanghai.     

Assessment of hazards and economic losses induced by land subsidence in Tianjin Binhai new area from 2011 to 2020 based on scenario analysis

Land subsidence, a major geological hazard in Tianjin, has caused serious losses. In this research, we established a numerical model to predict potential land subsidence caused by groundwater overdraft in the next decades. The model set three groundwater extraction scenarios, corresponding to (1) current rate, (2) 2 % decrease, and (3) South-to-North Water Transfer Project. Economic losses induced by land subsidence were calculated based on the three land subsidence scenarios. The results showed that with a better management plan (e.g., 2 % decrease in groundwater extraction) or with the success of the water transfer project, the economic loss could be reduced by 36 % or even 74 %. The results of this research provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development planning as well as disaster prevention policy-making of Tianjin Binhai New Area.     

用曲线拟合的方法预测软土地基沉降

讨论了采用曲线拟合方法预测地基沉降的理论基础,分析比较了四种预测方法的基本原理及其特点。根据多个工程实测沉降资料,研究了这四种方法的适用条件以及优缺点,提出了应用曲线拟合方法预测实际工程地基沉降的具体技术思路和原则。     

Land subsidence and earth fissures in south-central and southern Arizona,USA

Land subsidence due to groundwater overdraft has been an ongoing problem in south-central and southern Arizona (USA) since the 1940s. The first earth fissure attributed to excessive groundwater withdrawal was discovered in the early 1950s near Picacho. In some areas of the state, groundwater-level declines of more than 150 m have resulted in extensive land subsidence and earth fissuring. Land subsidence in excess of 5.7 m has been documented in both western metropolitan Phoenix and Eloy. The Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR) has been monitoring land subsidence since 2002 using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and since 1998 using a global navigation satellite system (GNSS). The ADWR InSAR program has identified more than 25 individual land subsidence features that cover an area of more than 7,300 km². Using InSAR data in conjunction with groundwater-level datasets, ADWR is able to monitor land subsidence areas as well as identify areas that may require additional monitoring. One area of particular concern is the Willcox groundwater basin in southeastern Arizona, which is the focus of this paper. The area is experiencing rapid groundwater declines, as much as 32.1 m during 2005–2014 (the largest land subsidence rate in Arizona State—up to 12 cm/year), and a large number of earth fissures. The declining groundwater levels in Arizona are a challenge for both future groundwater availability and mitigating land subsidence associated with these declines. ADWR’s InSAR program will continue to be a critical tool for monitoring land subsidence due to excessive groundwater withdrawal.     

Estimation of land subsidence caused by loss of smectite-interlayer water in shallow aquifer systems

Traditionally, land subsidence that results from groundwater over-pumping has often been described by the theory of consolidation. The mechanism of land subsidence due to the dehydration of clay minerals is not well addressed. A model of the “hydration state of smectite”, and a “solid solution model of smectite dehydration”, incorporating a thermodynamic solid solution model and laboratory results concerning clay-water systems of swelling pressure, hydration state and basal spacing in smectite interlayer, are employed to examine the effect of the release of water from the smectite interlayer on land subsidence in the coastal area of the Chou-Shui River alluvial fan and the Yun Lin offshore industrial infrastructure complex in Taiwan. The results indicate that 9.56–22.80% of the total cumulative land subsidence to a depth of 300 m is consistent with smectite dehydration following the over-pumping of groundwater. This dehydration-related land subsidence occurred to a depth of 0–60 m, with subsidence due to smectite dehydration accounting for 6.20–13.32% of the primary consolidation. Additionally, the total amount of subsidence resulting from both smectite dehydration and primary consolidation is consistent with the subsidence observed in the field. This study reveals that smectite dehydration appears to be important in assessing and predicting land subsidence in shallow aquifer systems.     

Optimization of concurrent mining and reclamation plans for single coal seam: a case study in northern Anhui, China

The extraction of underground ore body inevitably causes a large amount of land subsidence. Current reclamation technologies in China mainly focus on stable subsided land, which means most of the affected lands are submerged into water because of the high groundwater table in some areas, leading to the loss of soils and inefficient reclamation. Therefore, a new technology for reclaiming unstable subsiding land is being studied for restoring farmland as much as possible, based on a case study in northern Anhui, China. In consideration of the mining plan, subsidence processes in various stages were analyzed and some related factors such as vertical subsidence, post-mining slope, water area, and land use condition were also simulated. Due to mining activities, useful farmland has gradually decreased to merely 14.4 % of the pre-mining area. In this study, the following stages were modeled from pre-mining to post-mining: (1) percentage of farmland was 100 % in stage (a) (pre-mining), (2) 72.5 % in stage (b), (3) 67.3 % in stage (c), and (4) 14.4 % in stage (d) (post-mining). The results show that 86.6 % of cultivated land was submerged into water and lost its capacity for cultivation after coal mining. Reclamation plans for stages (b), (c), and (d) were made by a traditional reclamation method called “Digging Deep to Fill Shallow”. Based on scenario simulation of reclamation, the farmland reclamation percentages were improved to 78.3, 73.3, and 40.70 %, respectively. Taking the percentage of reclaimed farmland as the preferred standard, concurrent mining and reclamation for stage (b) and (c) could increase farmland reclamation percentages to 37.6 and 32.6 %, respectively, compared with the farmland reclamation percentage of post-mining [reclaiming the land in stage (d)]. The results reveal that optimum reclamation time should be at stage (b). Therefore, under current technical conditions, concurrent mining and reclamation could enhance the quantity of cultivated land and provide better land protection and food security in the mined areas with high groundwater table.     

典型曲线法在山东龙口软岩煤矿区开采沉陷预测中的应用

为丰富矿区开采沉陷的预计方法,提高预测的精度,在综合大量文献的基础上,提出了典型曲线法。典型曲线法避免了由理论模型的假设和简化而造成预计公式的误差,提高了预计的精度,通过开发预计程序,方便了数据的处理,实现了典型曲线法沉陷预计的电算化。以山东龙口软岩矿区为例,详细介绍了典型曲线的建立和应用方法,预计结果和实测最大下沉值的绝对偏差为9mm,相对误差为1.1%。     

Factors Affecting Consolidation Related Prediction of Singapore Marine Clay by Observational Methods

The use of prefabricated vertical drains with preloading option is the most widely-used ground improvement method for the improvement of marine clays in land reclamation projects. The assessment of the degree of consolidation of the marine clay is of paramount importance prior to the removal of preload in such ground improvement projects. This analysis can be carried out by means of observational methods with the use of field settlement plates and piezometer monitoring. Field settlement monitoring data can be used to ascertain the settlement of the reclaimed fill from the time of initial installation. The field settlement data can be analysed by the Asaoka method to predict the ultimate settlement of the reclaimed land under the surcharge fill. Back-analysis of the field settlement data will enable the coefficient of consolidation due to horizontal flow to be closely estimated. Piezometer monitoring data can be analysed to obtain the degree of consolidation of the improved marine clay. Back-analysis of the piezometer data will also enable the coefficient of consolidation due to horizontal flow to be estimated. The aim of this paper is to highlight the significance and impact of the various factors that affect prediction by the Asaoka and piezometer assessment methods. The authors findings of the Asaoka method reveal that the magnitude of ultimate settlement decreases and the degree of consolidation subsequently increases as a longer period of assessment is used in the prediction. The degree of consolidation predicted by the piezometers is found to be in good agreement with the Asaoka method for the early period of assessment. However as the assessment period increases, the piezometer indicates lower degree of consolidation as compared to field settlement predictions.     

Characterization of land subsidence induced by groundwater withdrawals in the plain of Beijing city,China

The plain of Beijing city in China suffers severe land subsidence owing to groundwater overdraft. The maximum subsidence rate could reach 6 cm/year through the 2000s. An integrated subsidence-monitoring program was designed, including levelling survey, borehole extensometers and multilayer monitoring of groundwater level, with the aim to understand both hydrological and mechanical processes and to characterize the land subsidence. From multilayer compaction monitoring, the major compression layers were identified. The major strata contributing to compression deformation are the second (64.5–82.3 m) and third (102–117 m) aquitards, which contributed around 39 % of the total subsidence. Meanwhile, irrecoverable deformations were also observed in the second (82.3–102 m) and third (117–148 m) confined aquifers; they exhibit elasto-plastic mechanical behavior, which is attributed to the thin beds of silt or silty clay. Stress–strain analysis and oedometer tests were conducted to study the aquifer-system response to pumping　and to estimate the specific storage of the major hydrogeologic units. The results reveal the creep behavior and elasto-plastic, visco-elasto-plastic mechanical behavior of the aquitards at different depths. The compressibility of the aquitards in the inelastic range is about one order of magnitude larger than for the elastic range.     

Grout injection into bed separation to control surface subsidence during longwall mining under villages: case study of Liudian coal mine,China

Surface subsidence can cause many environmental problems and hazards (including loss of land area and damage to buildings), and such hazards are particularly serious in coal mining districts. Injecting grout into the bed separation in the overburden has been proposed as an effective control measure against surface subsidence during longwall mining. However, no field trials of this technique have been implemented in mines under villages in China, and thus, its ability to control subsidence in such areas has yet to be demonstrated. In this study, field trials using this technique were carried out during longwall mining under villages in the Liudian coal mine, China. The maximum surface subsidence observed after the extraction was only 0.298 m, which accounts for 10 % of the mining height and is 79 % less than the predicted subsidence. Moreover, no damage occurred to the village buildings either during or after extraction and these buildings remain stable. Thus, this study represents the first successful attempt to control surface subsidence under villages in China using grout injection during longwall mining.