Imagining resilience: situating perceptions and emotions about climate change on Kamchatka, Russia

Global environmental change shapes places and people through ongoing transformation of ecological, socioeconomic, political, and cultural phenomena. One region construed as highly vulnerable to global environmental change, particularly anthropogenic climate change, is the North. Recent research about human communities in Western arctic and subarctic places revolve around vulnerability to anthropogenic climate change, focusing on loss of the ability to pursue traditional livelihoods, threats to ecosystems sustaining human communities and the need to adapt to new environmental regimes. Fewer studies address Russia and the perceptions and emotions related to climate change. To understand how people of the Russian North engage with climate change, I conducted ethnographic research in two rural and remote communities in subarctic alpine Kamchatka, Russia in 2009–2010. Local narratives about climate change largely reflect climate skepticism, and anthropogenic climate change is rejected as explaining environmental changes because: (1) climate is considered as naturally and cyclically changing, (2) humans are not considered a large enough force to alter natural climate cycles, (3) environmental problems are solvable with technology and (4) there is a lack of knowledge about climate change science. Thus, perceptions and emotions about transformation focus on other realms—socioeconomic, political, cultural—that are perceived as more critical to everyday life in the present and near future. Here, I describe these narratives and place the regional understanding of climate change in greater context to explain resistance to imagining environmental transformations due to climate change.     

Red Mangrove Seedling Survival, Growth, and Reproduction: Effects of Environment and Maternal Genotype

An adequate understanding of the nature and extent of response to stressors and resources by marine foundation plant species requires study of local adaptation and plasticity in traits. Analyses of variation among genotypes in growth and morphology and genotype × environment interactions are necessary for restoration in, for example, different combinations of tide, soil, and salinity regimes, and for assessing how foundation plant species will respond to global climate change. We conducted a field experiment to assess differences in responses among 86 half-sibling (same maternal tree) seedling families of the red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle) to different environmental conditions of hydrology imposed at low- and high-intertidal settings. At 3 years, Rhizophora survival and growth varied with maternal tree genotype, elevation, and genotype × elevation. This effect was independent of size of propagules at planting. Growth also differed among the five islands planted, a main effect that is a composite of a number of microenvironmental differences stemming from island size and shape, proximity to passes (and thus fetch), and island slope. Significant genotype × island interactions for some response variables further support the hypothesis that seedlings of different maternal genotypes can perform very differently under various suites of environmental conditions. Planted seedlings reproduced at an early age, and at 3 years there were differences in reproductive output among genotypes but not an overall mean difference between plants at low or high elevation. Whether our results show adaptation to local conditions or differences in plasticity among genotypes will require further study as the plants mature further to demonstrate fitness differences. However, either adaptation or plasticity provides a basis for maintenance of Rhizophora dominance over a wider range of environmental conditions and may be important for adaptation to conditions that will vary with global climate change.     

The ‘leisuring’ of rural landscapes in Barbados: New spatialities and the implications for sustainability in small island states

The transformation of rural areas into up-scale leisure amenity landscapes has become a global phenomenon. Small islands, especially in tropical and subtropical regions, are particularly attractive magnets for this kind of development. Yet it involves land use changes that challenge the sustainability of small island development as set out in the United Nations program for Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States (SDIDS). Through a case study of Barbados this paper critically examines the ‘leisuring’ of rural landscapes on small islands. It ties together Lefebvrian concepts of the production of space with the perspective of political ecology to argue that the agendas of global capital impose new spatialities involving social constructions of space and socio-environmental transformations by an offshore elite who are insensitive to local interests as well as the smallness of small islands. This creates conflict between space and place - between the spaces produced by the global leisure economy and the places that have purpose and meaning for local people. It challenges the possibility of local, community-based development solutions and imposes serious constraints on the implementation of the SDIDS agenda. More research into the nature of the new leisure spaces and how they are perceived and experienced by local populations is needed.     

Perceptions of environmental change in Moorea,French Polynesia: the importance of temporal,spatial, and scalar contexts

Pacific Islands are considered among the most vulnerable geographies and societies to the effects of climate change and variability (CCV). This study addresses the mismatch between global climate change narratives and local perceptions of environmental change in Moorea, French Polynesia. This study builds on CCV risk perception and adaptation research by analyzing how temporal and historical socio-economic, cultural, political, and ecological contexts shape local perceptions of environmental change among a sample of environmental stakeholders in Moorea. The data were collected prior to the widespread global narrative and social amplification of climate change risk and its particular impact on islands. As such, they offer an important portrait of environmental perceptions in French Polynesia prior to the influence of a circumscribed climate change narrative, which has since come to shape government and NGO responses to environmental change in the Pacific Island Countries and Territories. The data presented in this paper illustrate that perceptions of drivers and effects of environmental change and risk in Moorea are embedded in larger social processes of political economy and ecology, particularly related to contemporary environmental politics, contextualized within the histories of colonialism and tourism-led economic development. Integrating the complexity of local environmental risk perceptions into CCV policy will help to avoid maladaptation, social movements against CCV planning, and may help maximize government and donor investments.     

Climate (in)justice,vulnerability and livelihoods in the Caribbean: The case of the indigenous Caribs in northeastern St. Vincent

This paper examines climate justice from the perspective of three remote indigenous Carib communities located in northeastern St. Vincent, amidst their vulnerability to climatic hazards. The study contributes to the growing body of literature that explores the impacts climate-induced changes are having on Indigenous peoples through its explicit focus on this distinctive social group. The paper entails a detail case study of the particular ways the recent onset of two consecutive extreme weather events have impacted livelihood activities in these traditional farming villages. Primary data were collected in the aftermath of a severe drought that was followed by Hurricane Tomas in 2010, using a mixed method approach involving a questionnaire survey of 311 households, 70 unstructured interviews and 2 focus group sessions held in each of the three communities. The combined impact of these extreme weather events not only brought to light how exposed and sensitive these communities are to climatic hazards, but also illustrated some of the underlying issues driving vulnerability at the local scale that must be dealt with if climate justice is to be achieved. We argue that the factors driving vulnerability within these communities are partly a function of centuries of economic neglect and political marginalization and are also strongly related to the communities’ characteristically lower-socio economic status, geographic location, heavy reliance on land-based resources, coupled with a range of cognitive barriers that affect residents’ capacity to adapt to a changing and variable regional climate regime.     

国际土地利用-土地覆盖变化的环境影响研究

土地利用－土地覆盖变化是全球变化研究的重要方面之一。土地利用－土地覆盖变化对大氧化学性质及过程、气候、水文、土壤沉积物、生物多样性、生产力等都产生重要的影响。着重综述了轩际全球变化研究领域中重要的研究焦点之一－土地利用和土地覆盖变化的环境影响研究取得的进展以及未来的发展方向。     

Integrating diverse methods to understand climate-land interactions in East Africa

The questions of how land use change affects climate, and how climate change affects land use, require examination of societal and environmental systems across space at multiple scales, from the global climate to regional vegetative dynamics to local decision making by farmers and herders. It also requires an analysis of causal linkages and feedback loops between systems. These questions and the conceptual approach of the research design of the Climate-Land Interaction Project (CLIP) are rooted in the classical human-environment research tradition in Geography.This paper discusses a methodological framework to quantify the two-way interactions between land use and regional climate systems, using ongoing work by a team of multi-disciplinary scientists examining climate-land dynamics at multiple scales in East Africa. East Africa is a region that is undergoing rapid land use change, where changes in climate would have serious consequences for people’s livelihoods, and requiring new coping and land use strategies. The research involves exploration of linkages between two important foci of global change research, namely, land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change. These linkages are examined through modeling agricultural systems, land use driving forces and patterns, the physical properties of land cover, and the regional climate. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are being used to illustrate a diverse pluralism in scientific discovery.     

We are not all the same!: Comparative climate change vulnerabilities among fishers in Old Harbour Bay,Jamaica

There is a general consensus that Small Island Developing States are among the most vulnerable to experience climate injustices. Vulnerability studies of climate change effects on communities have often focused on differences between communities given these climate injustices. However, there is a need to also focus on vulnerability within communities, referred to here as comparative vulnerabilities. Climate justice therefore becomes even more important with more focused attention given to the nuances within groups that fall within the vulnerable category. This article examines comparative vulnerabilities for the fishing community in Jamaica. A survey of 241 fishers from Old Harbour Bay, the largest fishing village in Jamaica, was conducted to examine the level of vulnerability of different fishers to climate change. A vulnerability index was constructed for the community and then comparative vulnerabilities were determined based on socio-demographic characteristics. Overall for the sample 46.9% of respondents would be considered as experiencing a comparatively high level of vulnerability to climate change. Climate change vulnerability was influenced by a number of socio-demographic variables with unique profiles emerging for groups that can be ranked as low, moderate, and high vulnerability. The paper therefore argues that within vulnerable populations there are comparative vulnerabilities based on economic factors and social capital, which must be taken into consideration for adaptation strategies to be implemented. Given these comparative vulnerabilities a more targeted approach to coping and adaptation strategies can then be taken. This will assist in building resilience of these communities that must now adjust to a new normal with climate change effects currently occurring.     

Human impacts on soils: Tipping points and knowledge gaps

Soil ecosystem functions are derived from plant, animal and microorganism communities and the non-living environment interacting as a unit. Human activities have affected soil ecosystem functions and in many cases caused soil ecosystem collapse. This review provides a synthesis of current knowledge of human impacts on soil ecosystems, with a special focus on knowledge gaps regarding soil ecosystem shifts and tipping points, using the island of Crete, Greece as an example. Soil ecosystem shifts are abrupt changes that occur at “tipping points” and have long-lasting effects on the landscape and both the biotic and abiotic structure of the soil. These shifts can occur due to climate change, land use change, fertilization, or above-ground biodiversity decline. The environmental pressures in the agricultural land of Crete, place the island very close to tipping points, and make it an “ideal” area for soil ecosystem shifts. Reversing the trend of the shift while using the soil ecosystem services, means that significantly more organic matter needs to be added to the soil compared to the amount added under set-aside conditions. Potential nutrient supply and demand calculations indicate that fertilizer demand in Crete can be satisfied by recycling of bio-residue and livestock excreta produced on the island. Soil fertility improves faster if, in addition to bio-fertilization, farmers use traditional agricultural practices such as crop rotations and legume row plantings within olive trees and orchards. A renewed soil fertility paradigm shift requires a “holistic” management of biotic-soil–water resources in order to provide sufficient and an appropriate type of organic matter to the plant–microorganism system to maximize food production.     

Nature and stability of atoll island shorelines: Gilbert Island chain,Kiribati, equatorial Pacific

Islands rimming Pacific atolls typically form narrow, low‐lying lands that are commonly perceived to be particularly vulnerable to global changes such as sea‐level rise. As these, low islands form the only habitable land for many island nations, understanding the character of shorelines, and the rates and controls that operate to bring about changes, is an issue of central importance. The purpose of this study is to unravel the characteristics of coastal change on atoll islands of the Gilbert Island chain of the equatorial Pacific nation of Kiribati, especially as they relate to autogenic shoreline processes and El Niño/Southern Oscillation variability. Integration of field observations, differential global positioning system data, historical aerial photographs and ultra‐high resolution remote sensing images demonstrates the nature, spatial patterns and rates of change from 17 islands on Maiana and Aranuka atolls. The results illustrate that, between 2005 and 2009, ca 50% of the shorelines on these islands displayed a discernable shift in position; some shorelines were accretionary (at net rates up to ca 8 m year^?1) and others were erosional (up to ca 18 m year^?1). Long‐term net rates of change on Maiana between 1969 and 2009 were lower than short‐term net rates measured between 2005 and 2009. Both short‐term and long‐term observations illustrate some of the greatest change occur near terminations of the largest, north–south oriented islands, associated with longshore movement of coarse sand and gravel. Direct hits by tropical depressions and marked seasonality, factors interpreted as being essential in island growth and shoreline dynamics elsewhere, do not directly impact these equatorial atolls and can be eliminated as fundamental controls on shoreline dynamics. Similarly, observations over four years suggested that shoreline variability probably is not influenced directly by marked sea‐level change, although a recent increase in the rates of shoreline change could reflect instability related to the cumulative effect of a long‐term increase in the rate of sea‐level rise. Within this framework of global change, local anthropogenic effects, autogenic shoreline processes and El Niño/Southern Oscillation‐influenced wind and wave variability control many aspects of these dynamic shorelines. These results provide quantitative insights into the character and variability of rates of shoreline change, information essential for evaluating and mitigating the vulnerability of island nations such as Kiribati.     

Differential impacts of climate change on communities in the middle hills region of Nepal

There is a growing understanding that the impacts of climate change affect different communities within a country, in a variety of ways—not always uniformly. This article reports on research conducted in the middle hills region of Nepal that explored climate change vulnerability in terms of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity across different well-being groups, genders of the head of household and household location. In the study region, dry land farming has increasingly experienced climate-induced changes to farm productivity and natural resources. The experience of vulnerability to decreased livelihood options and natural resource hazards due to a changing climate varied according to household wealth and well-being status, with very poor and poor households more vulnerable than medium and well-off households. The research indicates that the climate change adaptation would benefit by considering: (i) differential impacts of vulnerability mainly based on well-being status of households; (ii) understanding of the local socio-political context and underlying causes of vulnerability and its application; and (iii) identifying vulnerable populations for the units of vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning.     

Hydrological Modeling and Prehistoric Settlement on Santa Rosa Island,California, USA

Fresh water availability was an important variable that influenced prehistoric human settlement on California's northern Channel Islands. Previous attempts to understand settlement on the islands use watershed size as a proxy for water at canyon mouths. In semi‐arid regions, this approach has limitations because streams may lose much or all of their flow to groundwater. We developed a distributed hydrological model for Santa Rosa Island that incorporates geospatial and temporal data for climate (precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, relative humidity, temperature), soils, vegetation, and topography to simulate the complex land‐surface‐groundwater behavior of island hydrology for hypothetical wet, dry, and median centuries. Our simulations show that water flow is greatest in drainages on the northwest and east coasts of the island. This correlates with some of the earliest and most persistent settlement on the island. During the most extreme droughts of the last 2000 years during the Medieval Climatic Anomaly (1150–600 cal BP), island populations contracted to a small number of large coastal villages. We argue that this was related in part to the greater availability of surface water at these locations. This study expands the theoretical and methodological scope of past studies that have applied hydrological simulation to archaeological investigations.     

Effects of climate change on groundwater resources at Shelter Island, New York State, USA

Rising sea levels due to climate change are expected to negatively impact the fresh-water resources of small islands. The effects of climate change on Shelter Island, New York State (USA), a small sandy island, were investigated using a variable-density transient groundwater flow model. Predictions for changes in precipitation and sea-level rise over the next century from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 report were used to create two future climate scenarios. In the scenario most favorable to fresh groundwater retention, consisting of a 15% precipitation increase and 0.18-m sea-level rise, the result was a 23-m seaward movement of the fresh-water/salt-water interface, a 0.27-m water-table rise, and a 3% increase in the fresh-water lens volume. In the scenario supposedly least favorable to groundwater retention, consisting of a 2% precipitation decrease and 0.61-m sea-level rise, the result was a 16-m landward movement of the fresh-water/salt-water interface, a 0.59-m water-table rise, and a 1% increase in lens volume. The unexpected groundwater-volume increase under unfavorable climate change conditions was best explained by a clay layer under the island that restricts the maximum depth of the aquifer and allows for an increase in fresh-water lens volume when the water table rises.     

Refugees, land cover, and environmental change in the Senegal River Valley

This paper seeks to explore the complex relationships between land cover, environmental change and forced migration in the middle valley of the Senegal River, attempting both to identify the nature of environmental impacts of forced displacement with specific reference to land cover, and to examine the social, political and economic circumstances in which these are exacerbated or reduced. The study concludes that change in land cover caused by the presence of refugees is not a major cause for concern in this area, despite the vulnerability of the natural environment. Significant factors in reducing negative impacts include the dispersal of the refugee population, and cultural and social proximity of the refugee and local populations surveyed. At the same time, observed changes in land cover need to be treated with caution, given the often cyclical nature of environmental change, and the range of factors associated with it.     

Water quality impacts from mining in the Black Hills,South Dakota,USA

The focus of this research was to determine if abandoned mines constitute a major environmental hazard in the Black Hills. Many abandoned gold mines in the Black Hills contribute acid and heavy metals to streams. In some areas of sulfide mineralization local impacts are severe, but in most areas the impacts are small because most ore deposits consist of small quartz veins with few sulfides. Pegmatite mines appear to have negligible effects on water due to the insoluble nature of pegmatite minerals. Uranium mines in the southern Black Hills contribute some radioactivity to surface water, but the impact is limited because of the dry climate and lack of runoff in that area.     

近10 a来冻土微生物生态学研究进展

冻土微生物在冻土生物地球化学循环中起着重要的作用, 并且在一定程度上可以指示全球气候变化. 在全球气候变暖的背景下, 研究冻土微生物群落特征及其与环境因子变化的关系是当前热点研究领域. 系统综述了冻土微生物群落的复杂性以及其影响因素、 冻土微生物生态功能及其对碳氮循环的反馈机制、 冻土微生物对环境气候变化的响应机理, 旨在为研究冻土微生物对全球气候变化的响应及其在生态系统中的作用提供参考.     

A multi-dimensional assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa

In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub-Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional, attitudinal and asset factors influencing urban vulnerability. Multiple methods were applied to cover the full range of vulnerabilities and to identify potential response strategies, including: model-based forecasts, spatial analyses, document studies, interviews and stakeholder workshops. We demonstrate the potential of the approach to assessing several dimensions of vulnerability and illustrate the complexity of urban vulnerability at different scales: households (e.g., lacking assets); communities (e.g., situated in low-lying areas, lacking urban services and green areas); and entire cities (e.g., facing encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential for strategic coordination and action. To better adapt to urban flooding and thereby reduce vulnerability and build resilience, we suggest working across dimensions and scales, integrating climate change issues in city-level plans and strategies and enabling local actions to initiate a ‘learning-by-doing’ process of adaptation.

     

A multi-dimensional assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa

In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub-Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional, attitudinal and asset factors influencing urban vulnerability. Multiple methods were applied to cover the full range of vulnerabilities and to identify potential response strategies, including: model-based forecasts, spatial analyses, document studies, interviews and stakeholder workshops. We demonstrate the potential of the approach to assessing several dimensions of vulnerability and illustrate the complexity of urban vulnerability at different scales: households (e.g., lacking assets); communities (e.g., situated in low-lying areas, lacking urban services and green areas); and entire cities (e.g., facing encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential for strategic coordination and action. To better adapt to urban flooding and thereby reduce vulnerability and build resilience, we suggest working across dimensions and scales, integrating climate change issues in city-level plans and strategies and enabling local actions to initiate a ‘learning-by-doing’ process of adaptation.     

Famine in the Pacific losing the chances for change

The Pacific Islands are undoubtedly vulnerable to famine. There is varied evidence of past famines in the local Pacific languages, in the ethnographic accounts of Pacific islands, and in the reports of the missionary groups. This famine vulnerability is because of the prevalence of natural disasters and the limited ability of the different island social systems to adapt to these extreme events. The famine vulnerability in the Pacific islands bears both similarities and dissimilarities to the more researched vulnerability of South Asia. Five recent examples of famines or potential famines strongly suggest that the Pacific islands remain liable to famine and that the rapid influx of foreign food relief recently does not remove the islands' inherent susceptibility to famine. By masking the terminal symptoms of famine crises, the influx of food relief may cause loss of the opportunity to develop more sustainable island food systems.     

全球气候变化下水资源脆弱性及其评估方法

气候变化对水资源的影响主要表现在两个方面:①对水资源供给能力的影响;②对水资源需求性的影响。气候变化下水资源脆弱性评估是水资源系统的综合评估,主要包括水资源供给与需求平衡的评估。我国水资源深受气候影响,表现在地区分布不均、洪涝灾害严重、供需矛盾突出等方面;此外,自气候变化引起关注以来,我国有关水资源脆弱性评估的研究甚少。对水资源脆弱性评估方法进行探讨,旨在为进一步探讨气候变化下我国水资源的脆弱性提供依据。