We are not all the same!: Comparative climate change vulnerabilities among fishers in Old Harbour Bay,Jamaica

There is a general consensus that Small Island Developing States are among the most vulnerable to experience climate injustices. Vulnerability studies of climate change effects on communities have often focused on differences between communities given these climate injustices. However, there is a need to also focus on vulnerability within communities, referred to here as comparative vulnerabilities. Climate justice therefore becomes even more important with more focused attention given to the nuances within groups that fall within the vulnerable category. This article examines comparative vulnerabilities for the fishing community in Jamaica. A survey of 241 fishers from Old Harbour Bay, the largest fishing village in Jamaica, was conducted to examine the level of vulnerability of different fishers to climate change. A vulnerability index was constructed for the community and then comparative vulnerabilities were determined based on socio-demographic characteristics. Overall for the sample 46.9% of respondents would be considered as experiencing a comparatively high level of vulnerability to climate change. Climate change vulnerability was influenced by a number of socio-demographic variables with unique profiles emerging for groups that can be ranked as low, moderate, and high vulnerability. The paper therefore argues that within vulnerable populations there are comparative vulnerabilities based on economic factors and social capital, which must be taken into consideration for adaptation strategies to be implemented. Given these comparative vulnerabilities a more targeted approach to coping and adaptation strategies can then be taken. This will assist in building resilience of these communities that must now adjust to a new normal with climate change effects currently occurring.     

气候变化影响下水资源脆弱性评估方法及其应用

气候变化和人类活动影响下的水资源脆弱性评价,是将气候变化影响纳入水资源规划管理、提出缓解气候变化不利影响的适应性对策的重要科学依据。针对与气候变化影响的水资源系统的敏感性和抗压性相联系的脆弱性与适应性问题,提出变化环境下水资源脆弱性评估理论体系和一般性公式。进一步,以水资源供需安全为出发点,采用温度、降雨双参数弹性系数和有水资源基础,直观、简单的水资源关键性指标体系方法,提出气候变化和人类活动背景下水资源脆弱性评估模型。将模型应用于缺水最严重的海河流域,评价了现状和未来情境下流域水资源的脆弱性情况。结果表明:整体上海河流域水资源脆弱性偏高,且平原区较山区更脆弱;气候因素对流域水资源的脆弱性影响明显,未来如不采取措施,海河流域的水资源脆弱性将进一步加重。     

Demystifying vulnerability assessment of agriculture communities in the Himalayas: a systematic review

Agriculture communities in the Himalayas are disproportionately vulnerable due to the emerging challenges from climatic and non-climatic stressors. In this study, we systematically review peer-reviewed literature focused on vulnerability assessment of agriculture communities (n = 26) in the five Himalayan countries (Bhutan, China, India, Nepal, and Pakistan). We examine the yearly distribution, geographical scale, methodological approach, stress in consideration, indicators used, and assessment communication methods of the reviewed papers. Our findings indicate that vulnerability assessment of agriculture communities in the Himalayas is a recent practice, as all of the reviewed articles were published after 2007. About 62% of the assessments were conducted at local (household, community, and village) level, and few assessments at sub-national (19%) and basin (12%) levels. Indicator-based methods using primary quantitative data were most common (54%). Further, 90% of the studies addressed vulnerability to a single stressor with 50% of papers dealing with the vulnerability of agriculture communities to climate change and/or climate variability. From the analysis of the literature, it was found that multi-level, multi-stress, and comprehensive socio-ecological assessments were seldom attempted. Mostly the studies were done in isolated pockets and failed to identify the patterns of vulnerability. We advocate that to holistically understand the vulnerability-creating and differentiating mechanisms in agriculture communities, vulnerability assessment should adopt a multi-level approach by integrating both social and ecological determinants, firstly to identify the hotspots of vulnerability and then to deeply understand the root causes in the identified hotspots through integrated analysis.     

Long-term spatio-temporal social vulnerability variation considering health-related climate change parameters particularly affecting elderly

For assessing the social dimension of vulnerability, population exposure mapping is usually considered the essential starting point. Integration of social structure then further differentiates situation-specific vulnerability patterns on a local scale. Census data available in heterogeneous spatial reference units are still considered the standard information input for assessing potentially affected people, for example, in case of an emergency. There is a strong demand for population data in homogeneous spatial units that are independent from administrative areas. Raster representations meet this demand but are not yet available for all European countries. In this paper, we present an approach of spatial disaggregation of population data for a European transect referring to current population statistics and anticipated future prospects. Recently published data providing the degree of soil sealing are applied as basic proxy for population density in the spatial disaggregation model. In order to assess future patterns of climate change-related vulnerability, results of a European regional climate model are considered for projecting the situation in the 2030s. “Heat wave frequency” is accounted for as climate variable featuring conditions regarded as especially strenuous for elderly or physically weak persons. Integrated analysis of the population and climate prospects enables identification of hot spots in the European transect examined, that is, regions of particularly demanding projected climatic patterns as well as high population density and case-specific vulnerable structure (elderly people). Integrated and consistent spatial analyses on European scale are essential for decision support in the context of climate change impact mitigation as well as for risk communication and future safety and security considerations.     

A social justice framing of climate change discourse and policy: Adaptation,resilience and vulnerability in a Jamaican agricultural landscape

It is now widely recognized that climate change is likely to have detrimental impacts across the Caribbean region, with the burden likely to fall disproportionately on the most vulnerable segments of society. It is therefore an appropriate time to ask whether the frameworks that lie behind climate change discourse and policy are consistent with the demands of social and environmental justice. In this paper, we use climate justice as a lens for evaluating three prominent frameworks for addressing climate change, those of adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability. Each of these discursive frameworks, we argue, can contribute to our understanding of climate change, but they do not all incorporate justice concerns to the same degree. In order to illustrate this, we examine the justice implications of using each of the three frameworks to assess a case study of agricultural transformation in Southwestern Jamaica. Farmers in this region have adapted to changing climate conditions in a variety of ways, including the use of new agricultural technology. The ability of many farmers to take advantage of such innovations, however, is constrained by the underlying landscape of vulnerability within the region. After interpreting this example from the perspectives of adaptation, resilience and vulnerability, we conclude that all three paradigms are capable of calling attention to climate justice issues, but only in the vulnerability perspective are such issues intrinsic. We believe, therefore, that a greater attention to vulnerability within Caribbean climate policy holds the potential to advance the goals of climate justice within the region.     

全球环境变化中的人文因素

全球环境变化很可能成为下一个世纪最紧迫的国际问题。这是因为人类活动的能力已经大到足够影响到全球的环境，而全球环境变化又给人类带来重大影响。文章探讨了人文因素在全球环境中所扮演的角色。由于人类在对待环境要素变化时，有选择其行动的自由，所以人文因素没有像大气、海洋那样，称为全球环境变化的子系统。这一点在建模中应给以充分考虑。文章讨论了各类系统对气候变化适应的脆弱性定义，并以海平面、农业、林业、渔业和人类健康为例，观察它们如何受到全球气候变暖的影响     

全球气候变化下水资源脆弱性及其评估方法

气候变化对水资源的影响主要表现在两个方面:①对水资源供给能力的影响;②对水资源需求性的影响。气候变化下水资源脆弱性评估是水资源系统的综合评估,主要包括水资源供给与需求平衡的评估。我国水资源深受气候影响,表现在地区分布不均、洪涝灾害严重、供需矛盾突出等方面;此外,自气候变化引起关注以来,我国有关水资源脆弱性评估的研究甚少。对水资源脆弱性评估方法进行探讨,旨在为进一步探讨气候变化下我国水资源的脆弱性提供依据。     

中国冻土对气候变化的脆弱性

冻土的脆弱性是指冻土对气候变化的脆弱性,是冻土易受气候变化,尤其是温度变化不利影响的程度. 研究冻土对气候变化的脆弱性是提高对自然生态系统、工程系统、生态-社会-经济系统对冻土变化影响的脆弱性的认知,科学适应冻土变化诸种影响的前提和基础. 基于科学性与实际相结合的原则、全面性与主导性原则、可操作性原则,以暴露度、敏感性与适应能力为标准,遴选构建了我国冻土脆弱性评价指标体系. 借助RS与GIS技术平台,使用空间主成分方法,构建了冻土脆弱性指数模型,在区域尺度上综合评价了冻土的脆弱性. 依据自然分类法,将冻土脆弱性分为潜在脆弱、轻度脆弱、中度脆弱、强度脆弱与极强度脆弱5级. 结果表明：总体上我国冻土以中度脆弱为主,但青藏高原多年冻土对气候变化尤为脆弱;冻土脆弱性具有显著的地域分布特点,青藏高原、西部高山、东北多年冻土区脆弱性相对较高,季节冻土区相对较低. 与季节冻土相比,多年冻土对气候变化更脆弱. 在当前升温幅度条件下,冻土脆弱程度主要取决于冻土的地形暴露与冻土对气候变化的适应能力.     

Flows of sediment,flows of insecurity: Climate change adaptation and the social contract in the Ebro Delta,Catalonia

To avoid dominant positivist explanations of links between climate change and security, I use alternative, human security approaches to study how climate security is managed in one of Spain’s most endangered coastal ecosystems, the Ebro Delta. I find that increasing the downstream flow of sediments retained in upstream dams is a crucial measure for dealing with climate change threats (sea-level rise) in the Delta. Yet, state policies do not increase sediment flow, but instead implement incremental adaptation at the site of climate impact (coast), which, at times, requires executing small-scale land expropriations. Refraining from improving human security via increasing sediment flow benefits corporate interests upstream. At the same time, expropriation silences mild farmer protest downstream and adds insult to injury by conveying to farmers a sense of blame for their vulnerability to climate change. Meanwhile, using expropriation at the service of incremental adaptation goes against the very rationale of expropriation established by Spanish legislation and creates a fundamental contradiction between what the practice is meant to deliver, namely security and the social contract from the part of the state, and what it actually does, i.e. permit the state to evade providing human security. I conclude that, under climate change, achieving human security, the delivery of the social contract, and corporate rent-seeking at the same time may not be possible. Moreover, rather than the social contract been threatened by state incapacity to respond to the effects of climate change and breached social contract expectations of vulnerable communities, it is the actual mobilisation of the contract in order to respond to climate change that diminishes human security.     

Vulnerability and risk: comparing assessment approaches

The concepts vulnerability and risk are of great importance in the fields of climate change and natural hazards. Confusion is asserted in the terminology used by the respective communities, and a large conceptual literature has not solved this problem. This affects the communication within and between the two communities and the comparison of results from vulnerability and risk assessments. This paper argues that the main difference between methods to assess vulnerability and risk in the climate and the disaster communities is not a conceptual one, but rather different terminologies are used. This point is made using a formal framework of vulnerability to climate change that makes the structure of vulnerability and risk assessments explicit. The framework distinguishes three assessment approaches in the field of vulnerability to climate change, which recur—under different labels—in the risk assessment approaches analysed. While within each community, the same terms are ambiguously used to refer to more than one assessment approach, the confusion is enhanced between the two communities by using different labels for very similar approaches. As an application of the results, similarities and differences between two assessment tools are analysed: the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment model (DIVA) for the case of vulnerability to climate change and the CATastrophe SIMulation model (CatSim) for risk of natural hazards.     

Assessment of climate change impacts on flooding vulnerability for lowland management in southwestern Taiwan

Taiwan suffers from losses of economic property and human lives caused by flooding almost every year. Flooding is an inevitable, reoccurring, and the most damaging disaster in Taiwan since Taiwan is located in the most active tropic cyclone formation region of the Western Pacific. Flooding problem is further worse in land subsidence areas along southwestern coast of Taiwan due to groundwater overdraft. Increasing number of people is threatened with floods owing to climate change since it would induce sea level rise and intensify extreme rainfall. Assessments of flooding vulnerability depend not only on flooding severity, possible damage of assets exposed to floods should also be simultaneously considered. This paper aims at exploring how climate change might impact the flooding vulnerability of lowland areas in Taiwan. A flooding vulnerability evaluation scheme is proposed in this study which incorporates flooding severity (the maximum inundation depth determined by a two-dimensional model) and potential economic losses for various land uses. Effects of climate change on flooding vulnerability focus on alterations of rainfall depth for various recurrence intervals. The flood-prone Yunlin coastal area, located in southwestern Taiwan, is chosen to illustrate the proposed methodology. The results reveal that reducing flooding vulnerability can be achieved by either reducing flooding severity (implementation of flood-mitigation measures) or decreasing assets exposed to floods (suspension of land uses for flood-detention purpose). Performance of currently implemented flood-mitigation measures is insufficient to reduce flooding vulnerability when facing with climate change. However, the scenario suggested in this study to sustain room for floods efficiently reduces flooding vulnerability in both without- and with climate change situations. The suggestions provided in this study could support decision processes and help easing flooding problems of lowland management in Taiwan under climate change.     

过去2000年气候变化对中国经济与社会发展影响研究综述

It is one of the important focuses of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) to investigate the long-term impacts of climate change on regional social and economic development over the past two millenniums. The past decades in China have witnessed great progresses in the study of past climatic influence on human society. In this paper, reviews have been made on the latest proceedings related with researches about the past 2000-year climatic impacts on Chinese history in terms of the following three aspects: economic fluctuations, social stability, and the rise and fall of dynasties in China. It is concluded that climate change and socio-economic fluctuation in historical China really temporarily demonstrated a good coincidence, which indicates a potential driving-response mechanism was likely embedded in the complicated relationship between climate change and human society. A warm climate provided relatively stable conditions of agricultural production and thus generally played a positive role in the healthy development of the economy and society. On the contrary, socio-economic adverseness triggered by a colder climate was preconditioned with social problems such as the intensification of the contradiction between people and land, as well as the gradual accumulation of social rigidity. These social problems accompanying with social development contributed higher vulnerability of society in the face of changing climate, which to some extent might amplify the effects of climatic deterioration. The authors emphasize that the future studies of the relationship between past climate change and human history in China should attach more attention to the following key problems: making deeper exploitation of the potential of Chinese historical documents, exploring the mechanism of climate-society interaction, and studying the differences of climatic effects on socio-economic development at the regional scale. This study from a historical perspective might enhance the understanding of human-environment relationship under a situation of global warming, and also provide the scientific basis for the sustainable social development in China.     

Adaptation policy and adaptation realities: local social organization and cross-scale networks for climate adaptation on Mount Kilimanjaro

Least developed countries have prepared national adaptation programs of action (NAPAs) to coordinate international adaptation funding to reduce social vulnerability to climate change. The adaptation programs have been written for consistency with existing sectoral policies and development agendas—policies which have thus far led to inequitable and incomplete decentralization of responsibility to organize and manage adaptation at the local level. The capacity of local social organization and of cross-scale networks and flows of knowledge and resources from higher levels of government is insufficient to facilitate socially equitable and sustainable adaptation to climate change. Tanzania’s NAPA, poverty reduction strategy paper, and sectoral policies for forest, water, and agriculture/livestock illustrate the coordination of adaptation plans with existing policies. National and regional statistics and a survey of households on Mount Kilimanjaro—a regional priority for climate adaptation in Tanzania—demonstrate significant gaps in local social organization and cross-scale networks for adaptation. Challenging existing structural causes of vulnerability will be difficult under adaptation plans written for complementarity with the very policies that have produced social inequality. Outside of a few development projects of limited geographic extent, there is limited evidence for socially equitable and sustainable adaptation outcomes. Sustainable adaptation will require substantial new commitments to developing local capacity and cross-scale networks.     

Loss caused by earthquakes: rapid estimates

Rapid population growth and increased economic activity impose an urgent challenge on the sustainability of water resources in Beijing. Water resources system is a complex uncertain system under climate change which is of vulnerability. But water resources system vulnerability research is relatively weak. In this study, we present a multifunctional hierarchy indicator system for the performance evaluation of water resources vulnerability (WRV) under climate change. We established an evaluation model, i.e., analytic hierarchy process combining set pair analysis (AHPSPA) model, for assessing WRV, in which weight is determined by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and the evaluation degrees are determined by the set pair analysis (SPA) theory. According to the principle of scientificalness, representative, completeness and operability, the index systems and standard of water resources vulnerability evaluation are established based on the analysis of sensibility and adaptability which include five subsystems: climate change, water resources change, social and economic infrastructure, water use level and water security capability. The AHPSPA model is used to assess water resource vulnerability in Beijing with 26 indexes under eight kinds of future climate change scenarios. Certain and uncertain information quantity of the WRV is calculated by connection numbers in the AHPSPA model. Results show that the WRV of Beijing is in the middle vulnerability (3 or III) under above-mentioned different climate change scenarios. The uncertain information is between 37.77 and 39.99 % in the WRV evaluation system in Beijing. Compared with present situation, the WRV will become better under scenario I and III and will become worse under scenario II, scenario IV, scenario representative concentration pathways (RCP)2.6, scenario RCP4.5, scenario RCP6.0 and scenario RCP8.5. In addition, we find that water resources change and water use level factors play more important role in the evaluation system of water resource vulnerability in Beijing. Finally, we make some suggestions for water resources management of Beijing.     

Hierarchy evaluation of water resources vulnerability under climate change in Beijing,China

Rapid population growth and increased economic activity impose an urgent challenge on the sustainability of water resources in Beijing. Water resources system is a complex uncertain system under climate change which is of vulnerability. But water resources system vulnerability research is relatively weak. In this study, we present a multifunctional hierarchy indicator system for the performance evaluation of water resources vulnerability (WRV) under climate change. We established an evaluation model, i.e., analytic hierarchy process combining set pair analysis (AHPSPA) model, for assessing WRV, in which weight is determined by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and the evaluation degrees are determined by the set pair analysis (SPA) theory. According to the principle of scientificalness, representative, completeness and operability, the index systems and standard of water resources vulnerability evaluation are established based on the analysis of sensibility and adaptability which include five subsystems: climate change, water resources change, social and economic infrastructure, water use level and water security capability. The AHPSPA model is used to assess water resource vulnerability in Beijing with 26 indexes under eight kinds of future climate change scenarios. Certain and uncertain information quantity of the WRV is calculated by connection numbers in the AHPSPA model. Results show that the WRV of Beijing is in the middle vulnerability (3 or III) under above-mentioned different climate change scenarios. The uncertain information is between 37.77 and 39.99 % in the WRV evaluation system in Beijing. Compared with present situation, the WRV will become better under scenario I and III and will become worse under scenario II, scenario IV, scenario representative concentration pathways (RCP)2.6, scenario RCP4.5, scenario RCP6.0 and scenario RCP8.5. In addition, we find that water resources change and water use level factors play more important role in the evaluation system of water resource vulnerability in Beijing. Finally, we make some suggestions for water resources management of Beijing.

     

Vulnerability, Partnerships and the Pursuit of Survival: Urban Livelihoods and Apprenticeship Contracts in a West African City

This paper analyses local level apprenticeship contracts and networks to highlight informal urban livelihoods within the context of socio-economic vulnerability and wider contemporary changes taking place in Koforidua, Ghana. It does so by specifically examining the complex entanglements of interpersonal relationships that characterize apprenticeship contracts within which home-based entrepreneurs and artisans in Koforidua engage in to sustain both current livelihoods, as well as to shore themselves against socio-economic vulnerability triggered in part by adjustment. As a result of the changing geography of the city, network entanglements, comprising resilient ties and egalitarian relations, have become vital to urban livelihoods in this community. However, apprenticeship contracts and the networks they engender can be a double-edged sword. For instance, demands of reciprocity or support from co-network members, neighbours and family, can be so taxing that some individuals opt out of the network. This tension notwithstanding, this paper contends that apprenticeship contracts and the network spaces they create have created a new social cohesion and community that transcend the traditionally known spaces of social support, i.e. ethnic ties, family ties or even institutional support.     

Vulnerability,Partnerships and the Pursuit of Survival: Urban Livelihoods and Apprenticeship Contracts in a West African City

This paper analyses local level apprenticeship contracts and networks to highlight informal urban livelihoods within the context of socio-economic vulnerability and wider contemporary changes taking place in Koforidua, Ghana. It does so by specifically examining the complex entanglements of interpersonal relationships that characterize apprenticeship contracts within which home-based entrepreneurs and artisans in Koforidua engage in to sustain both current livelihoods, as well as to shore themselves against socio-economic vulnerability triggered in part by adjustment. As a result of the changing geography of the city, network entanglements, comprising resilient ties and egalitarian relations, have become vital to urban livelihoods in this community. However, apprenticeship contracts and the networks they engender can be a double-edged sword. For instance, demands of reciprocity or support from co-network members, neighbours and family, can be so taxing that some individuals opt out of the network. This tension notwithstanding, this paper contends that apprenticeship contracts and the network spaces they create have created a new social cohesion and community that transcend the traditionally known spaces of social support, i.e. ethnic ties, family ties or even institutional support.     

Differential impacts of climate change on communities in the middle hills region of Nepal

There is a growing understanding that the impacts of climate change affect different communities within a country, in a variety of ways—not always uniformly. This article reports on research conducted in the middle hills region of Nepal that explored climate change vulnerability in terms of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity across different well-being groups, genders of the head of household and household location. In the study region, dry land farming has increasingly experienced climate-induced changes to farm productivity and natural resources. The experience of vulnerability to decreased livelihood options and natural resource hazards due to a changing climate varied according to household wealth and well-being status, with very poor and poor households more vulnerable than medium and well-off households. The research indicates that the climate change adaptation would benefit by considering: (i) differential impacts of vulnerability mainly based on well-being status of households; (ii) understanding of the local socio-political context and underlying causes of vulnerability and its application; and (iii) identifying vulnerable populations for the units of vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning.     

Is shrinking groundwater resources leading to socioeconomic and environmental degradation in Central Ganga Plain,India?

In India, agriculture is a source of livelihood for over 64 % of the country's population. Indo-Gangetic Plains of North India support good cultivation and provides livelihood to several hundred million people. The climatic change studies have documented changes in precipitation pattern which can alter the flow pattern discharge to the reservoirs and availability of water for agriculture. The reduction in groundwater recharge through reduced rainfall and irregularity in surface water availability has increased dependence on groundwater resources causing its overexploitation. Consequently, pumping from deeper groundwater conditions need more energy and pump efficiency for abstraction which ultimately requires huge capital investment. Moreover, volatile fuel prices make the agricultural society vulnerable to economic losses. The repercussions of water level decline are likely to disseminate an additional economic burden to the groundwater user community. To cope with higher energy demands, increase in fuel consumption has led to environmental degradation through higher carbon emission. Thus, the groundwater depletion is likely to have far-reaching socioeconomic and environmental impacts which are not confined to the Central Gangetic Plain. In the present study, attempts have been made to analyze the effect of groundwater depletion as a commodity in the social framework of the region.     

南水北调大面积农业灌溉的区域气候效应研究

基于社会经济学模型对中国未来不同社会经济发展情景下土地利用变化的预测资料,利用区域气候模式RegCM3,重点研究了南水北调工程建成后,对中国北方13个省(区)范围内农田、农林混作区和草地等进行大面积灌溉所产生的区域气候效应。结果显示:大面积农业灌溉对中国区域气候影响明显,主要受灌区及其邻近地区土壤湿度、近地层空气湿度、总云量、潜热通量、降水量等均呈增加趋势,地表温度、感热通量及500 hPa位势高度将降低。灌溉后受灌区土壤湿度的增加,不仅使受灌区气候环境发生变化,还通过动量、热量及水汽交换对邻近地区气候产生影响。