From sprawl to compactness and back: population dynamics (1848–2011) and the economic structure of a Mediterranean city

In the recent decades southern European cities experienced morphological changes and a demographic transition towards zero (or negative) growth and aging. Population dynamics shifted from the impressive growth of the post-industrial period into recent de-concentration processes determining the spillover of commercial and residential settlements across the surrounding rural areas. Based on long-term demographic data, the present study hypothesizes that urban expansion did not follow a one-way linear path from compactness to dispersion while reflecting differentiated growth patterns based on the specific socioeconomic context at the local scale. Along a sufficiently long time period non-linear expansion waves alternating settlement densification and scattering are expected to be found especially in complex urban contexts such as those developed in the Mediterranean region. This hypothesis was tested for a paradigmatic case study in southern Europe (Athens, Greece) using demographic data covering 160 years (1848–2011). Urban growth in Athens was assessed through the analysis of long-term census data made available on a district level. These data provide information on the spatial distribution of resident population and characterize distinct expansion waves according to the dominant socioeconomic context. Results of the study were discussed in the light of the debate on future development of the Mediterranean cities and the (changing) economic relations with the surrounding region.     

Permanent versus temporary rural migrants in Riyadh,Saudi Arabia

"The aim of this paper is to investigate the factors affecting intentions of rural-migrants to return to their rural origins. Several socioeconomic, demographic, spatial, and temporal variables will be introduced to explore their explanatory power and interrelationship with the migrants' intentions. These variables are: Years lived in Riyadh, the current place of parents' residency, land ownership in the village, home ownership in the urban area, income, household size, and the area of origin. The data, which come from a sample survey of migrants conducted in Riyadh in 1983, will be analyzed by the means of binary logit model."     

Assessment of the hurricane-induced power outages from a demographic,socioeconomic, and transportation perspective

Natural disasters have devastating effects on the infrastructure and disrupt every aspect of daily life in the regions they hit. To alleviate problems caused by these disasters, first an impact assessment is needed. As such, this paper focuses on a two-step methodology to identify the impact of Hurricane Hermine on the City of Tallahassee, the capital of Florida. The regional and socioeconomic variations in the Hermine’s impact were studied via spatially and statistically analyzing power outages. First step includes a spatial analysis to illustrate the magnitude of customers affected by power outages together with a clustering analysis. This step aims to determine whether the customers affected from outages are clustered or not. Second step involves a Bayesian spatial autoregressive model in order to identify the effects of several demographic-, socioeconomic-, and transportation-related variables on the magnitude of customers affected by power outages. Results showed that customers affected by outages are spatially clustered at particular regions rather than being dispersed. This indicates the need to pinpoint such vulnerable locations and develop strategies to reduce hurricane-induced disruptions. Furthermore, the increase in the magnitude of affected customers was found to be associated with several variables such as the power network and total generated trips as well as the demographic factors. The information gained from the findings of this study can assist emergency officials in identifying critical and/or less resilient regions, and determining those demographic and socioeconomic groups which were relatively more affected by the consequences of hurricanes than others.     

Multivariate analysis of Kenya's urban system

The study analyzes the structure, spatial interaction, and dimension of the post-colonial urban systems of Kenya using component factor analysis and based on selected socio-cultural, economic, and demographic variables. The study identified seven major dimensions of variation accounting for 72.0%. The analysis of the urban spatial variation is compared and intertwined with studies done in other countries to find out the regional variation of the loadings. Finally, a seven-order characteristics of Kenya urban systems is suggested, based on the study. The accurate knowledge of these salient characteristics of Kenya urban sub-systems is important before any viable spatial planning should be implemented.     

Situating queer migration within (national) welfare regimes

Building on recent criticisms within the literature on queer migration raised by Andrew Gorman-Murray and Nathaniel Lewis, the article explores ‘unconventional’ trajectories of queer migration: a Global North metropolitan area-Global North metropolitan area one and a Global North metropolitan area-Global North ordinary city one. Two very different migration patterns are analyzed: the movement of young queer ‘creative’ Italians from different metropolitan areas (Rome, Milan, Bologna, Catania, Naples, Padua and Turin) towards Berlin (Germany) and the relocation of young queers from the major Italian cities (Rome and Milan) towards ordinary/small size towns. Aimed at highlighting the complexity of material and immaterial factors leading the decision to migrate in times of crisis, austerity politics and increasing unemployment, the article introduces the role of welfare regimes in shaping migration’s choices. This way, queer migrants and their socio-economic status and possibilities find materially situated within national/local welfare regimes, thus challenging the teleological binarism of the ‘coming-out’ journey always presuming a rural/urban movement for queer subjects. Within such a framework, the ordinary/small size town can become a place for ‘outness’ and self-realization of queer migrants who create bridges and connections with the metropolitan areas, thus queering the provincial contexts.     

苏南地区城乡聚落空间演化过程及其格局特征

当前,城乡聚落空间正由自然和经济社会条件存在差异的等级体系转变为密切联系的网络化结构,城乡融合已经成为中国城乡聚落空间演化发展的重要方向。以苏南地区为例,对20世纪90年代以来的城乡聚落空间演化过程及其格局特征进行分析,发现2000年以后城镇聚落扩张强度远高于乡村聚落,城乡聚落空间结构可进一步归纳为集中、双心、多核和密集4种基本格局。该研究对乡村振兴背景下的城乡聚落空间优化布局具有一定指导作用。     

Theory and context in analyzing livelihoods,land use,and land cover: Lessons from Petén,Guatemala

Most studies on the causes of deforestation have sought to link the phenomenon to specific economic, political, or demographic factors, usually through statistical or spatial-statistical modeling. However, generalizations about the link between deforestation and specific variables or classes of variables are of questionable validity. Another approach, one that is receiving growing attention, seeks instead to identify particular contexts or situations, as created by an array of interacting factors, which encourage forms of land use or other economic activity that can generate deforestation pressure. Such an approach was used in this study to explore recent trends and dynamics in the Petén region of northern Guatemala. The research found a number of regional and national scale factors that in combination have led to a process of de-agrarianization and dispossession among smallholders, while large scale, commercial activities in agriculture, ranching and plantation forestry increasingly dominate. Rapid land concentration, in conjunction with limited employment generation through emergent activities, is intensifying pressure on remaining areas of forest. A focus on two distinct areas within Petén reveals how broader-scale trends and features can have differing outcomes at the local level, with contrasting socioeconomic and environmental effects. Finally, the paper explores the implications of recent dynamics in Petén for both policy and theory in relation to deforestation, agrarian change, and regional development. Key factors and questions are highlighted that should be considered when exploring influences on regional socioeconomic and environmental conditions.     

Multi-level geospatial modeling of human exposure patterns and vulnerability indicators

In the context of disaster risk management and in particular for improving preparedness and mitigation of potential impacts, information on socioeconomic characteristics including aspects of situation-specific human exposure and vulnerability is considered vital. This paper provides an overview on available multi-level geospatial information and modeling approaches from global to local scales that could serve as inventory for people involved in disaster-related areas. Concepts and applications related to the human exposure and social vulnerability domains are addressed by illustrating the varying dimensions and contextual implications. Datasets and methods are highlighted that can be applied to assess earthquake-related population exposure, ranging from global and continental-scale population grids (with a focus on recent developments for Europe) to high-resolution functional urban system models and space–time variation aspects. In a further step, the paper elaborates on the integration of social structure on regional scale and the development of aggregative social and economic vulnerability indicators which would eventually enable the differentiation of situation-specific risk patterns. The presented studies cover social vulnerability mapping for selected US federal states in the New Madrid seismic zone as well as the advancement of social vulnerability analysis through integration of additional economic features in the index construction by means of a case study for Turkey’s provinces.     

A framework for spatio-temporal scales and concepts from different disciplines: the ‘vulnerability cube’

The concept of vulnerability is increasingly used in the fields of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation, as well as socioeconomic studies. This paper reviews research inputs into the concept of vulnerability and highlights the challenges of resolving its spatial and temporal variability with building resilience and adaptation. We hypothesise that a clear understanding of scale is key to integrating these related issues, by differentiating three dimensions of scale when analysing relationships between the observed and the intrinsic scale of a given phenomenon, namely space, time and dimensional level. The paper analyses 20 vulnerability assessment approaches, ranging from the global down to the local scale, and positions them with regard to their integration of the spatial component. We then develop a vulnerability cube as a framework to position existing approaches and to map them in a three-dimensional space. The three axes represent space, time and dimension and provide a structure for the different notions of scales and ultimately for a spatial analysis workflow. The vulnerability cube framework helps us to position different vulnerability assessments and to identify overlaps, differences and specific characteristics. Additionally, this three-dimensional conceptualisation allows the identification and discussion of appropriate scaling issues.     

Socioeconomic vulnerability and electric power restoration timelines in Florida: the case of Hurricane Irma

Large-scale damage to the power infrastructure from hurricanes and high-wind events can have devastating ripple effects on infrastructure, the broader economy, households, communities, and regions. Using Hurricane Irma’s impact on Florida as a case study, we examined: (1) differences in electric power outages and restoration rates between urban and rural counties; (2) the duration of electric power outages in counties exposed to tropical storm force winds versus hurricane Category 1 force winds; and (3) the relationship between the duration of power outage and socioeconomic vulnerability. We used power outage data for the period September 9, 2017–September 29, 2017. At the peak of the power outages following Hurricane Irma, over 36% of all accounts in Florida were without electricity. We found that the rural counties, predominantly served by rural electric cooperatives and municipally owned utilities, experienced longer power outages and much slower and uneven restoration times. Results of three spatial lag models show that large percentages of customers served by rural electric cooperatives and municipally owned utilities were a strong predictor of the duration of extended power outages. There was also a strong positive association across all three models between power outage duration and urban/rural county designation. Finally, there is positive spatial dependence between power outages and several social vulnerability indicators. Three socioeconomic variables found to be statistically significant highlight three different aspects of vulnerability to power outages: minority groups, population with sensory, physical and mental disability, and economic vulnerability expressed as unemployment rate. The findings from our study have broader planning and policy relevance beyond our case study area, and highlight the need for additional research to deepen our understanding of how power restoration after hurricanes contributes to and is impacted by the socioeconomic vulnerabilities of communities.     

Comparative urbanization in Ghana and Kenya in time and space

There are few inter-African country urban analyses because of the continent’s enormous size and socioeconomic diversity, language barriers, and wide variations in national and regional urban research capacity. Nevertheless, comparative urban studies are critical in understanding contemporary African urbanization. In this comparative spatial and temporal analysis of Ghana and Kenya’s urbanization, we find that both countries are urbanizing rapidly and are faced with many common urban problems. Moreover, Ghana is more urbanized than Kenya and has a larger indigenous urban imprint and a more widely dispersed urban pattern. Besides their physiographic and population conditions, we trace these countries’ convergent and divergent urban trends to their shared but unique experiences of colonialism, nationalism and globalization.     

Effects of social and climatic factors on building activity in the Czech lands between 1450 and 1950: a dendrochronological analysis

The development of settlement and building activity is the result of socioeconomic, political and demographic changes in the past. However, accurate information on temporal variation in building activity is rather limited. Dendrochronological databases containing dated historical wooden constructions provide an important resource. We used 6514 tree-felling dates to reconstruct building activity in the Czech lands for the period 1450–1950. Comparing felling dates with historical events demonstrated that building activity was negatively associated with intense wars, particularly during the Thirty Years' War (1618–1648). After the Peace of Westphalia (1648), socioeconomic renewal and demographic growth were reflected in an upsurge of building activity, especially ecclesiastical buildings. While the construction of ecclesiastical and noble buildings culminated around the 1720s, rural buildings peaked in the 1780s and the 1820s. Although no direct effect of climate was demonstrated, adverse climatic conditions leading to harvest failures and subsequent famines (e.g. the ‘Hunger Years’ 1770–1772) significantly contributed to declines in building activity. In contrast, a higher number of felling dates were detected when strong and/or frequent windstorms occurred. This study provides a comprehensive understanding of building activity in Central Europe and advocates the use of dendrochronological databases for the investigation of human activities in history.     

Spatiotemporal changes in population distribution and socioeconomic development in China from 1950 to 2010

Complex factors, including those associated with human and natural geography, have contributed to a longstanding imbalance in the relationship between population distribution and socioeconomic development in eastern and western China. Applying the population distribution structure index, the Gini coefficient of population distribution, and analysis of the movement of the population center of gravity and spatial autocorrelation, this study simultaneously analyzes the spatial characteristics of population density in China and the trends in its temporal and spatial variation from 1950 to 2010. It was found that while China’s population distribution has increasingly balanced development, the overall pattern of the spatial distribution has not changed significantly. Although the “Hu Huanyong Line” is still a valid representation of the country’s population distribution, the population distribution in parts of Gansu, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia has extended the boundary of the Hu Huanyong Line. The Chinese population has experienced a trend of movement towards the west. While the congruence between the population distribution and economic development of the country as a whole was relatively low, it was relatively high in the northeast and the relationship is steadily improving. Compared with the eastern and central regions, the western region has experienced a fluctuating and weakening trend.     

Using Ground‐Penetrating Radar to Examine Spatial Organization at the Late Classic Maya Site of El Baúl,Cotzumalhuapa, Guatemala

The Cotzumalhuapa Nuclear Zone (CNZ) is a Late Classic site consisting of three large architectural compounds linked by a series of stone‐paved causeways and bridges. The majority of the site, however, lies beneath layers of recent tephra, leaving the structure of this settlement largely unknown. This study uses ground‐penetrating radar (GPR) to map the subsurface near El Baúl, one of the main compounds, in order to examine the spatial relationship among urban architectural features. Excavation within areas of the GPR survey provides fine‐grain detail of one major architectural feature in the region, the Gavarrete Causeway. The complimentary nature of these data sets characterizes the architectural organization of the settlement at two scales. Spatial patterning between large‐scale architectural features supports the hypothesis that the CNZ represents an integrated urban center with evidence of planned community organization characteristic of other Late Classic period centers across Mesoamerica.     

Changes of rural to urban areas in hydrograph characteristics on watershed divisions

This study examined changes in hydrograph characteristics of rural statuses to urban statuses on watershed divisions in Taiwan. The main approach was to relate applicable model parameters with the corresponding imperviousness based on calibration and verification using a semidistributed model and 102 events. The model structure is conceptual linear reservoirs with parallel-type cascaded storages which is represented by overland and channel coefficients. The hourly mean rainfall of the watershed and its divisions were calculated using the Kriging method. The time-variant rainfall losses were calculated using the constant percentage method. The spatial and temporal model inputs, division effective rainfall, were obtained by subtracting mean rainfall of divisions from the rainfall losses. In calibration, the storage values of 50 events derived using appropriate parameter bounds were more reasonable than those using inappropriate bounds. Based on the optimal interval method, the overland storages displayed more marked change than did channel storage in response to imperviousness changes. By contrast, the channel storages were unaffected by the changes in urbanization. The overland storages were related with the imperviousness by using the regression equations for determining their relationships in continuous changes of urbanized divisions. The verification of the regression relationships was based on 52 events. The results indicated that power linkage was an available selection for linking division parameters with the corresponding imperviousness. Finally, the study concludes (1) appropriate bounds in parameter calibration are useful for obtaining significant storage values and (2) the study results using these suitable storages indicated large changes in imperviousness on the downstream divisions, marked urbanization resulted in reduced the time to peak at least 10 %, the peak discharge exceeded an increment of 20–30 %.     

基于大数据的上海市人居环境适宜性评价

人居环境是居民生活和社会发展的重要基础,科学量化人居环境适宜性有助于引导区域人口规划,促进人口与资源协调发展。本文基于大数据,运用GIS技术,从居住环境、社会环境、经济环境和生态环境四个方面构建综合评价指标体系,以1 km栅格为基本单元,对上海市人居环境适宜性进行空间测度评价。结果表明:上海市人居环境指数介于-1.79~45.57之间,空间分布上呈现中心城区向周边区域递减的态势,整体分布趋势与人口密度相关性较高。高值区主要集中在中心城区一带,土地面积较小,人口密度大,承载压力较大;发展潜力较高的中等适宜区主要涉及外环及新城区域,土地面积大,是未来人口导向的潜力区。     

Evaluating groundwater resource of an urban alluvial area through the development of a numerical model

As established in the European Water Framework Directive, the development of groundwater numerical models is fundamental for adopting water management plans aimed at preserving the water resource and reducing environmental risks. In this paper, authors present a methodology for the estimation of groundwater resource of an alluvial valley, in an urban area characterized by a complex hydrostratigraphic setting and scarcity of hydrogeological data; the study area is the urban and sub-urban area of Rome (Italy). A previous, elaborated hydrostratigraphic model set the base for the development of 3D, steady state, sub-basin scale numerical model, implemented by the finite-difference code MODFLOW 2000^®; the water system components were derived by elaboration of available data. The alluvial aquifer of the Tiber River Valley, which runs in the middle of the City in a NNW–SE direction, has been analyzed in detail, since it is covered by a densely populated area hosting most of Rome’s historical heritage, and it is characterized by low quality geotechnical parameters. Results suggest that in areas with high hydrostratigraphic complexity and scarcity of hydrogeological data, a sub-basin scale, and steady-state numerical model can be very helpful to verify the conceptual model and reduce the uncertainty on the water budget components. The proposed steady-state model constitutes the base for future applications of transient state and local scale models, required for sustainable water management.     

Geotechnical studies for foundation settlement in Holocenic alluvial deposits in the City of Rome (Italy)

This study identifies units characterized by specific geomechanical behaviours within some Holocene alluvial deposits in the City of Rome. In particular, the highly compressible units, which may be responsible for subsidence and settlement phenomena below urban structures, have been identified. Investigations carried out during this study have interpreted nearly 800 stratigraphic sections and physical–mechanical features of the alluvial deposits of the Tiber and those of its right- and left-bank tributaries. The analysis allowed to define, for each investigated deposit, a representative series subdivided into lithotechnical units. When comparing the stratigraphic and geologic features among the series, a remarkable difference in geomechanical behaviour in the deposits from the Tiber's left- and right-bank tributaries and within the river's deposits themselves could be recognized. A yield hazard zoning for urban structures related to recent alluvial deposits has also been defined.