Intermediately complex models for the hydrological interactions in the atmosphere-vegetation-soil system

This paper investigates the hydrological interactions in the atmosphere-evegetation-soil system by using the bucket model and several new simplified intermediately complex models. The results of mathematical analysis and numerical simulations show that these models, despite their simplicity, can very clearly reveal the essential features of the rather complex hydrological system of atmosphere-ecosystem-soil. For given atmospheric variables, these models clearly demonstrate multiple timescales, the “red shift” of response spectra, multi-equilibria and limit cycles, bifurcation, abrupt change, self-organization, recovery, “desertification”, and chaos. Most of these agree with observations. Especially, the weakening of “shading effect” of living canopy and the wilted biomass might be a major mechanism leading to the desertification in a relatively short period due to overgrazing, and the desertification in a relatively long period or in climate of change might be due to both Charney’s mechanism and the shading effect. These ideas could be validated with further numerical simulations. In the paper, some methods for improving the estimation of timescales in the soil water evolution responding to the forcing are also proposed.     

Skill assessment of three earth system models with common marine biogeochemistry

We have assessed the ability of a common ocean biogeochemical model, PISCES, to match relevant modern data fields across a range of ocean circulation fields from three distinct Earth system models: IPSL-CM4-LOOP, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CNRM-CM5.1. The first of these Earth system models has contributed to the IPCC 4th assessment report, while the latter two are contributing to the ongoing IPCC 5th assessment report. These models differ with respect to their atmospheric component, ocean subgrid-scale physics and resolution. The simulated vertical distribution of biogeochemical tracers suffer from biases in ocean circulation and a poor representation of the sinking fluxes of matter. Nevertheless, differences between upper and deep ocean model skills significantly point to changes in the underlying model representations of ocean circulation. IPSL-CM5A-LR and CNRM-CM5.1 poorly represent deep-ocean circulation compared to IPSL-CM4-LOOP degrading the vertical distribution of biogeochemical tracers. However, their representations of surface wind, wind stress, mixed-layer depth and geostrophic circulations (e.g., Antarctic Circumpolar Current) have been improved compared to IPSL-CM4-LOOP. These improvements result in a better representation of large-scale structure of biogeochemical fields in the upper ocean. In particular, a deepening of 20–40 m of the summer mixed-layer depth allows to capture the 0–0.5 μgChl L^?1 concentrations class of surface chlorophyll in the Southern Ocean. Further improvements in the representation of the ocean mixed-layer and deep-ocean ventilation are needed for the next generations of models development to better simulate marine biogeochemistry. In order to better constrain ocean dynamics, we suggest that biogeochemical or passive tracer modules should be used routinely for both model development and model intercomparisons.     

Improved atmospheric circulation over Europe by the new generation of CMIP6 earth system models

Global Climate Models (GCMs) generally exhibit significant biases in the representation of large-scale atmospheric circulation. Even after a sensible bias adjustment these errors remain and are inherited to some extent by the derived downscaling products, impairing the credibility of future regional projections. In this study we perform a process-based evaluation of state-of-the-art GCMs from CMIP5 and CMIP6, with a focus on the simulation of the synoptic climatological patterns having a most prominent effect on the European climate. To this aim, we use the Lamb Weather Type Classification (LWT, Lamb British isles weather types and a register of the daily sequence 736 of circulation patterns 1861-1971. METEOROL OFF, GEOPHYS MEM; 737 GB; DA 1972; NO 116; PP 1-85; BIBL 2P1/2, 1972), a subjective classification of circulation weather types constructed upon historical simulations of daily mean sea level pressure. Observational uncertainty has been taken into account by considering four different reanalysis products of varying characteristics. Our evaluation unveils an overall improvement of salient atmospheric circulation features consistent across observational references, although this is uneven across models and large frequency biases still remain for the main LWTs. Some CMIP6 models attain similar or even worse results than their CMIP5 counterparts, although in most cases consistent improvements have been found, demonstrating the ability of the new models to better capture key synoptic conditions. In light of the large differences found across models, we advocate for a careful selection of driving GCMs in downscaling experiments with a special focus on large-scale atmospheric circulation aspects.

     

从检验CMIP5气候模式看CMIP6地球系统模式的发展

世界气候研究项目（WCRP）正在组织第六次气候模式对比计划（CMIP6）,全球各个气候模式组正在抓紧发展新模式和做多种相关的数值试验。此时,有必要回顾大量CMIP5气候模式模拟气候变化的效果,以便展望CMIP6的地球系统模式的可能发展前景。目前IPCC第六次评估报告正在启动和进行中,其中所用的主要工具是CMIP6的地球系统模式。     

系统辨识(2):系统描述的基本模型

控制是一切科学问题的核心.数学模型是一切控制问题的基础.事物的运动规律用方程描述就是数学模型.不同学科的发展就是建立其数学模型的过程.本文首次把线性动态系统数学模型分为三类:时间序列模型,方程误差类模型,输出误差类模型;详细介绍了线性系统的一些基本数学模型,包括连续系统离散化和模型等价变换,单输入单输出随机系统模型,多变量系统模型,类多变量系统模型,多输入和多输出系统模型(传递函数阵主模型、子模型、子子模型,多输入单输出系统模型,单输入多输出系统模型等).     

On vertical interpolation and truncation in connexion with use of sigma system models

Abstract

The Mackenzie Shelf in the Canadian Beaufort Sea receives large amounts of freshwater runoff in winter and, yet, it also produces ventilating water masses by brine rejection from growing ice. We examine physical and chemical data to see how these contradictory processes can occur juxtaposed on the shelf. Measurements of salinity and δ¹⁸O both from ice cores and the water column are used to infer the separation into two convective regimes due to the under‐ice topography of the system of large pressure ridges that forms at the boundary between landfast ice and pack ice. Outside this ridge system the ice cover is subject to frequent openings due to offshore ice motion. The inner regime is thus dominated by the impoundment of Mackenzie River water, whereas the outer regime is subject to brine enhancement. This paper compares freezing processes and system evolution for these two regimes in winter.     

Performance of Goddard earth observing system GCM column radiation models under heterogeneous cloud conditions

We test the performance of the shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) Column Radiation Models (CORAMs) of Chou and collaborators with heterogeneous cloud fields from a single-day global dataset produced by NCAR's Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) with a 2-D Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) installed in each column. The original SW version of the CORAM performs quite well compared to reference Independent Column Approximation (ICA) calculations for boundary fluxes (global error 4 W m⁻² for reflected flux), largely due to the success of a combined overlap and cloud scaling parameterization scheme. The absolute magnitude of errors relative to ICA are even smaller (global error 2 W m⁻² for outgoing flux) for the LW CORAM which applies similar overlap. The vertical distribution of heating and cooling within the atmosphere is also simulated quite well with daily averaged zonal errors always less than 0.3 K/day for SW and 0.6 K/day for LW heating (cooling) rates. The SW CORAM's performance improves by introducing a scheme that accounts for cloud inhomogeneity based on the Gamma Weighted Two Stream Approximation (GWTSA).These results suggest that previous studies demonstrating the inaccuracy of plane-parallel models may have unfairly focused on worst case scenarios, and that current radiative transfer algorithms in General Circulation Models (GCMs) may be more capable than previously thought in estimating realistic spatial and temporal averages of radiative fluxes, as long as they are provided with correct mean cloud profiles. However, even if the errors of our particular CORAMs are small, they seem to be systematic, and their impact can be fully assessed only with GCM climate simulations.     

Consistent global responses of marine ecosystems to future climate change across the IPCC AR5 earth system models

Climate Dynamics - We analyze for the first time all 16 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models with explicit marine ecological modules to identify the common mechanisms involved in...     

全球海气系统年代际突变时空特征的模拟评估

文中评估了5个耦合模式对1880年至今全球海气系统的年平均年代际突变时空特征的模拟能力。19世纪80年代—20世纪90年代,评估了耦合模式对海表温度(SST)和海平面气压(SLP)的年代际突变水平分布的模拟能力;20世纪70—90年代,评估了耦合模式对70、80和90年代这3次年代际突变大气的四维时空特征的模拟。结果表明,在上述2个时段中,5个耦合模式对SST场中年代际突变分布最主要的空间分布型——太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)没有抓住,可能导致了对SST年代际突变的空间分布的模拟能力较差,也没有模拟出SLP年代际突变的行星及其以上尺度的空间结构。20世纪70—90年代,在对流层中,UKMO-HadGEM1模式较好地模拟出了70年代的热带地区500 hPa气温和位势高度,80年代极地SLP,90年代南、北副热带气温和500 hPa气温的年代际突变的空间分布。GFDL-CM2.1模式部分模拟出了90年代的SST和500 hPa温度场突变的水平分布。其余模式中也有行星及以上尺度的年代际突变发生,虽然所模拟出来的突变的时间和空间分布与实际差异都较大,但说明这些模式可以模拟出大尺度气候系统年代际突变,其中包含的物理过程还有待于进一步的研究。在平流层,肖栋(2008年)指出1994年平流层的降温突变可能是1991年Pinatubo火山爆发所造成的臭氧减少导致的。其中,GFDL-CM2.1和ECHAM5/MPI-OM模式较好地模拟出了平流层在1994年的降温突变,CCSM3和UKMO-HadGEM1模式部分模拟出了平流层的变冷突变,而FGC)ALS-g1.0模式没有模拟出来。分析表明,这可能是FGOALS-g1.0模式没有考虑火山灰或者臭氧的作用所致。     

A simple hydrologic framework for simulating wetlands in climate and earth system models

Wetlands are ecosystems of important functions in the earth??s climate system. Through relatively high evapotranspiration, they affect surface water and energy exchange with the atmosphere directly influencing the physical climate. Through CH₄, CO₂ and N₂O fluxes, they regulate the biogeochemical cycles, indirectly influencing the physical climate. However, current models do not explicitly include the water table, present under all large and stable wetlands; model wetlands are identified as flat land with wet soil resulting from precipitation events. That is, the wetlands are only ??wetted?? from above but not from below by the high water table. Furthermore, without the knowledge of the water table position, estimates of CH₄ and other gases (e.g., CO₂ and N₂O) are poorly constrained. We present a simple hydrologic framework for simulating wetlands based on water table depth. A synthesis of hydrologic controls on wetlands highlights the key role that groundwater plays. It directly feeds wetlands, supports surface-water fed wetlands by maintaining a saturated substrate, and links land drainage to sea level by impeding drainage in lowlands. Forced by routine climate model output (precipitation?Cevapotranspiration-surface runoff), land topography, and sea level, we simulate the present-day water table in North America at the 1?km scale. We validate the simulation with water table observations and compare regions of shallow water table to mapped wetlands. Our results show that the framework captures the salient features of wetland distribution and extent at regional and continental scales, a direct result of large-scale groundwater convergence that nourishes the lowlands even in arid climates. The low requirement of forcing and computation make the framework easy to adopt in climate and earth system models for simulating wetland responses to climate and sea level change for the present, paleo reconstructions, and future projections.     

Biogeophysical effects of historical land cover changes simulated by six Earth system models of intermediate complexity

Six Earth system models of intermediate complexity that are able to simulate interaction between atmosphere, ocean, and land surface, were forced with a scenario of land cover changes during the last millennium. In response to historical deforestation of about 18 million sq km, the models simulate a decrease in global mean annual temperature in the range of 0.13–0.25°C. The rate of this cooling accelerated during the 19th century, reached a maximum in the first half of the 20th century, and declined at the end of the 20th century. This trend is explained by temporal and spatial dynamics of land cover changes, as the effect of deforestation on temperature is less pronounced for tropical than for temperate regions, and reforestation in the northern temperate areas during the second part of the 20th century partly offset the cooling trend. In most of the models, land cover changes lead to a decline in annual land evapotranspiration, while seasonal changes are rather equivocal because of spatial shifts in convergence zones. In the future, reforestation might be chosen as an option for the enhancement of terrestrial carbon sequestration. Our study indicates that biogeophysical mechanisms need to be accounted for in the assessment of land management options for climate change mitigation.     

中国地球系统模式对全球地表入射短波辐射和大气逆辐射的模拟效果评估

以云和地球辐射能量系统(CERES)数据集为准,量化了中国地球系统模式对地表入射短波辐射和大气逆辐射时空变化的模拟性能,明确了多模式间模拟结果存在不确定性的区域。结果表明：中国模式均能模拟出北半球地表入射短波辐射和大气逆辐射“夏高冬低”的季节变化特征。陆地上,中国模式对两个辐射分量月均值的模拟结果与CERES相当,在海洋上低于CERES结果。中国模式能模拟出地表入射短波辐射下降、大气逆辐射上升的年际变化趋势。对于2001—2014年均值,中国模式模拟的地表入射短波辐射在海洋和陆地上较CERES分别偏低3.3和3.0 W·m^-2,模拟的大气逆辐射在海洋上与CERES结果相当,在陆地上较CERES低1.3 W·m^-2。除南北纬30°附近之外,中国模式在其他纬度均低估地表入射短波辐射,以热带和北极最为明显。模式对大气逆辐射的模拟偏差呈纬向波动特征,模拟误差大值出现在高大山脉处。中国模式模拟地表入射短波辐射不确定性极大的区域分布在热带雨林和南极洲沿海,模拟大气逆辐射不确定性极大的区域分布在格林兰岛、青藏高原、安第斯山脉和南极洲沿海。     

ENSO simulation in coupled ocean-atmosphere models: are the current models better?

Maintaining a multi-model database over a generation or more of model development provides an important framework for assessing model improvement. Using control integrations, we compare the simulation of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and its extratropical impact, in models developed for the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report with models developed in the late 1990s [the so-called Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-2 (CMIP2) models]. The IPCC models tend to be more realistic in representing the frequency with which ENSO occurs, and they are better at locating enhanced temperature variability over the eastern Pacific Ocean. When compared with reanalyses, the IPCC models have larger pattern correlations of tropical surface air temperature than do the CMIP2 models during the boreal winter peak phase of El Niño. However, for sea-level pressure and precipitation rate anomalies, a clear separation in performance between the two vintages of models is not as apparent. The strongest improvement occurs for the modelling groups whose CMIP2 model tended to have the lowest pattern correlations with observations. This has been checked by subsampling the multi-century IPCC simulations in a manner to be consistent with the single 80-year time segment available from CMIP2. Our results suggest that multi-century integrations may be required to statistically assess model improvement of ENSO. The quality of the El Niño precipitation composite is directly related to the fidelity of the boreal winter precipitation climatology, highlighting the importance of reducing systematic model error. Over North America distinct improvement of El Niño forced boreal winter surface air temperature, sea-level pressure, and precipitation rate anomalies to occur in the IPCC models. This improvement is directly proportional to the skill of the tropical El Niño forced precipitation anomalies.     

中国地球气候系统模式的发展及其模拟和预估

地球气候系统模式是开展多学科、多圈层集成研究的重要平台,其发展是国际地学领域特别是全球变化领域竞争的前沿。中国的地球气候系统模式研发工作始于20世纪80年代,最近10年得到快速发展。研发格局上已经形成中国科学院、有关部委和高校三足鼎立的局面。文中在简要回顾中国地球气候系统模式早期发展历史的基础上,总结了中国参加第6次耦合模式比较计划的9个地球气候系统模式的技术特点,初步评估了中国4个模式对全球和东亚气候模拟的基本性能,分析了其在4种共享社会经济路径情景下对全球降水与温度的预估变化及其与平衡态气候敏感度的联系。最后,结合国际态势,从发展的角度提出未来中国气候模式研发工作需要加强的8个方向。      

Hurricane forecasts in the FSU models

A brief account of our studies on the hurricane forecast problem is presented here. This covers recent prediction results from the Florida State University (FSU) regional and global numerical weather prediction models. The re-gions covered are the Indian and the Pacific Oceans. The life cycle of the onset vortex (a hurricane) of the summer monsoon, typhoons over the western Pacific Ocean and tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal (Andhra Pradesh and the Bangladesh storms) are covered here. The essential elements in the storm formaton are the strong horizontal shear in the cyclogenetic areas, a lack of vertical shear and warn sea surface temperatures. The storm motion has a steering component largely described by the advection of vorticity by a vertically averaged layer mean wind, the recurvature of a storm appears to invoke physical processes via the advection of divergence by the divergent part of the wind especially in the outflow layers of the storm. Very high resolution global models seem to be able to handle the motion and structure during the entire life of typhoons quite reasonably. The scope for better diagnosis of the storms life cycle appears very promising in view of the realistic simulation of the life cycle.     

一类计算性系统误差消除与斜压原始方程天气气候模式改进

斜压原始方程半隐式全能量守恒格式的构造问题长期没有解决。本研究在成功地构造实现其全能量完全守恒的半隐式方案基础上，进行了此守恒方案与欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）的σ－坐标原始方程全球谱模式半隐式方案间的实际资料对比实验。实验表明，850hPa平均预报高度场RMS误差在积分一周以后得到明显改进，到第30天其预报误差降低达到了50％，进一步的对比实验表明，对流层中部和下部的月预报平均高度场RMS误差也显降低，而且一些明显的系统性误差也得到大幅度改进。更加详细的分析显示，这些收益的很大一部分是从超长波成分的改进中得到的。这说明，通过构造守恒性时间差分方案消除了响应的计算性系统误差源汇，进而能够使模式气候漂移得到显改进，而这种误差源汇存在于传统的，现仍被普遍采用的斜压原始方程天气气候模式中。     

11个S2S模式对MJO预报效果的评估分析

利用次季节一季节预报研究计划(Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project,S2S)的多模式产品集,系统评估了产品集中11个模式对MJO的实际预报技巧.如果以距平相关系数ACC为0.5作为有效预报技巧的阈值,S2S各模式的MJO实际预报时效为8～32 d.S2S各模式预报普遍低估...     

Comparison of the performance of net radiation calculation models

Daily values of net radiation are used in many applications of crop-growth modeling and agricultural water management. Measurements of net radiation are not part of the routine measurement program at many weather stations and are commonly estimated based on other meteorological parameters. Daily values of net radiation were calculated using three net outgoing long-wave radiation models and compared to measured values. Four meteorological datasets representing two climate regimes, a sub-humid, high-latitude environment and a semi-arid mid-latitude environment, were used to test the models. The long-wave radiation models included a physically based model, an empirical model from the literature, and a new empirical model. Both empirical models used only solar radiation as required for meteorological input. The long-wave radiation models were used with model calibration coefficients from the literature and with locally calibrated ones. A measured, average albedo value of 0.25 was used at the high-latitude sites. A fixed albedo value of 0.25 resulted in less bias and scatter at the mid-latitude sites compared to other albedo values. When used with model coefficients calibrated locally or developed for specific climate regimes, the predictions of the physically based model had slightly lower bias and scatter than the empirical models. When used with their original model coefficients, the physically based model had a higher bias than the measurement error of the net radiation instruments used. The performance of the empirical models was nearly identical at all sites. Since the empirical models were easier to use and simpler to calibrate than the physically based models, the results indicate that the empirical models can be used as a good substitute for the physically based ones when available meteorological input data is limited. Model predictions were found to have a higher bias and scatter when using summed calculated hourly time steps compared to using daily input data.