Equivalent-linear site response analysis on the site of the historical Trakošćan Castle,Croatia, using HVSR method

This paper presents a major extension of seismic vulnerability research project on the site of Trako??an Castle based on the initial horizontal-to-vertical-spectral-ratio (HVSR) results from Stanko et al. (2016). The estimated HVSR site frequencies and HV amplification at Trako??an Castle can only be used as an indication of the initial soil site frequency and amplification, so-called natural soil model, corresponding to the subsoil profile without the influence of an earthquake. The equivalent-linear (EQL) site response analysis has been carried out for different earthquake scenarios for a maximum input rock peak ground acceleration (PGA_ROCK) that corresponds to return periods of 95 (0.08 g), 475 (0.18 g) and 1000 years (0.31 g). The aim of the research is to evaluate structural seismic design responses and to determine type and degree of damage caused by local site effect, which is the result of an alluvial basin and topographic influences. The main objective of this research is the formation of local microseismic zones based on an EQL analysis: surface spectral acceleration and amplification maps at the predominant frequency. Based on the HVSR frequency response of the core structure of Trako??an Castle and the Tower itself (fundamental and higher frequency modes), maps of surface spectral acceleration and soil amplification at different frequencies (3, 5 and 10 Hz) are developed for different input PGA_ROCK levels (0.08, 0.18 and 0.31 g) to evaluate seismic response of the Castle. Observed amplifications are correlated with ground motion polarization and directionality of the ground motion from the alluvial basin to the hilltop. Shortening of predominant frequencies (lengthening of the period), particularly in the alluvial basin, has been observed with higher input PGA_ROCK in the EQL analysis. This effect is not manifested in the Trako??an hill, and predominant frequencies match HVSR frequencies. The use of certain geophysical survey methods at historical sites is a big problem, because terrain features (e.g. steep hills, mountains, ridges, slopes, cliffs) create lack of space and make it impossible to carry out geophysical investigation. Microtremor measurements at historical sites can overcome this limitation and provide local seismic response and vulnerability behaviour of historical monuments without destroying their authenticity. Also, computational modelling can greatly improve the results. The EQL site response analysis on the site of Trako??an Castle has confirmed and improved the results of seismic response and vulnerability based on HVSR method.     

Geochemical characterization of a karst polje – an example from Sinjsko polje, Croatia

 The poljes of the Adriatic Coast are rather special features whose like is not found anywhere else in the world. The delineation of this unique landform feature by its geochemical characteristics has been attempted by using examples from Sinjsko polje, which represents a typical karst polje in the Adriatic Coast, or the area of the Dinaric Karst. Factor analysis was performed on 96 samples collected in a regular grid of 1×1 km which covered the entire area of the Sinjsko polje valley. Another factor analysis was performed in a regular grid of 5×5 km that comprised 41 samples in the karstic environment. In this manner two factor models were created and closely inspected for possible differences due to the peculiar properties arising from two geochemically different environments. Within the polje itself it was possible to evaluate three factors, while four factors were identified to be significant for the explanation of the geochemical structure of data assessed in the regular 5×5-km grid. This grid includes the area of Sinjsko polje and its wider neighborhood. The Ba/Sr index reveals striking differences in drainage patterns between the polje itself and the surrounding area. Received: 3 May 1996 · Accepted: 25 June 1997     

Assessment of fire danger vulnerability using McArthur’s forest and grass fire danger indices

We present a field survey and a number of simulations of the local Persian Gulf tsunami of 19 March 2017 at Bandar Dayyer, Iran, which resulted in one death, five persons missing and significant damage to the port. The field survey defined the inundated area as extending \(\sim\, 40\) km along the coast, with major effects concentrated on an \(\sim\, 8\) km stretch immediately west of Dayyer, a maximum run-up of 3 m and maximum inundation reaching 600 m. In the absence of significant earthquakes on that day, we first test the possibility of generation of a landslide; however, our simulations for legitimate sources fail to reproduce the distribution of run-up along the coast. We prefer the model of a meteorological tsunami, triggered by Proudman resonance with a hypothetical weather front moving at 10 m/s in a NNW azimuth, which could be an ancillary phenomenon to a major shamal wind system present over the Persian Gulf on that day. More detailed simulations of the Dayyer tsunami would require an improved bathymetric grid in the vicinity of the relevant coastal segment.     

Development of a drought vulnerability index using MCDM and GIS: study case in São Paulo and Ceará, Brazil

Natural Hazards - Although climate change vulnerability research in general has increased over the last decade, Latin American countries have more directed more limited efforts toward vulnerability...     

Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment for Tulbagh,South Africa: Part I – Assessment of Seismic Hazard

In this part of our study the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Tulbagh was performed. The applied procedure is parametric and consists essentially of two steps. The first step is applicable to the area in the vicinity of Tulbagh and requires an estimation of the area-specific parameters, which, in this case, is the mean seismic activity rate, , the Gutenberg-Richter parameter, b, and the maximum regional magnitude, m_max. The second step is applicable to the Tulbagh site, and consists of parameters of distribution of amplitude of the selected ground motion parameter. The current application of the procedure provides an assessment of the PSHA in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA). The procedure permits the combination of both historical and instrumental data. The historical part of the catalogue only contains the strongest events, whereas the complete part can be divided into several subcatalogues, each assumed complete above a specified threshold of magnitude. In the analysis, the uncertainty in the determination of the earthquake was taken into account by incorporation of the concept of `apparent magnitude'. The PSHA technique has been developed specifically for the estimation of seismic hazard at individual sites without the subjective judgement involved in the definition of seismic source zones, when the specific active faults have not been mapped or identified, and where the causes of seismicity are not well understood. The results of the hazard assessment are expressed as probabilities that specified values of PGA will be exceeded during the chosen time intervals, and similarly for the spectral accelerations. A worst case scenario sketches the possibility of a maximum PGA of 0.30g. The results of the hazard assessment can be used as input to a seismic risk assessment.     

A Method of Improving Seismic Data Resolution：Comprehensive Inversion of Well logging and Seismic Data

ＡＭｅｔｈｏｄｏｆＩｍｐｒｏｖｉｎｇＳｅｉｓｍｉｃＤａｔａＲｅｓｏｌｕｔｉｏｎ：ＣｏｍｐｒｅｈｅｎｓｉｖｅＩｎｖｅｒｓｉｏｎｏｆＷｅｌｌｌｏｇｇｉｎｇａｎｄＳｅｉｓｍｉｃＤａｔａＺｈａｎｇＹｕｆｅｎ；ＨｏｎｇＦｅｎｇ（ＤｅｐａｒｔｍｅｎｔｏｆＡｐｐｌ...     

Seismic Cycles and Trend Predictions of Earthquakes in Sumatra–Andaman and Burmese Subduction Zones using Temporal b-value and Hurst Analysis

The annual b-value fluctuation patterns in Burmese subduction zone and Andaman–Sumatra subduction zone are evaluated from earthquake data (January 1990 to June 2016; Mw ³ 4.3) to identify seismic cycles with sequential dynamic phases as described in the ‘elastic failure model’ of Main et al. (1989). Two seismic cycles have been identified in Andaman–Sumatra subduction zone, one started in 1990 and ended on 2004 with occurrence of great Sumatra earthquake (Mw 9.0) and the other started in 2005 and continuing till date with the phase of crack coalescence and fluid diffusion (3A&B). Similarly, the subduction zone of Burma shows evidence of one incomplete seismic cycle within 1990–2016 and presently undergoing the crack coalescence and fluid diffusion (3A&B) phase. The analysis has prompted to subdivide the area into thirteen smaller seismic blocks (A to M) to analyse area specific seismic trend and vulnerability analysis employing Hurst Statistics. Hurst plots with the dynamic phases of ‘elastic failure model’ of earthquake generation is compared to assess the blocks with high seismic vulnerability. The analysis suggest that north Andaman zone (block G) and north Burma fold belt (block M) are seismically most vulnerable. Moreover, the seismic vulnerability of Tripura fold belt and Bangladesh plain (block K) is equally high.     

Source potential and palynofacies of Late Jurassic “Lemeš facies”, Croatia

Laminated limestone and calcareous shale outcrop samples from the Late Jurassic “Leme?” facies (Croatia) were investigated to characterize their organic facies and palynofacies and their hydrocarbon generative potential. The results indicate that the organic rich sediments of “Leme?” facies were deposited within a relatively shallow marine environment at low redox potential, characterized as an oxygen depleted depositional setting with stratified bottom waters of the carbonate platform (Adriatic Carbonate Platform). The organic rich samples contain a high portion of lipid rich amorphous kerogen of algal/phytoplankton origin, enriched by bacterial biomass. Most of the analyzed samples have total organic carbon contents (TOC) greater than 3%, Rock-Eval S2 >20 mg HC/g rock, yielding Hydrogen Index (HI) values ranging from 509–602 mg HC/g TOC. According to these results, the analyzed samples have very good to excellent oil generative potential. Relatively high sulfur content suggests that the kerogen is best described as Type II-S. Biomarker maturity parameters, as well as the fluorescence of the isolated kerogen, show that the organic matter is at early to peak oil thermal maturity. The observed level of thermal maturity indicates that these samples were once buried to depths of ～5.5–5.8 km before being uplifted in the late Tertiary. The surface outcrops of the “Leme?” facies suggest that these strata have significant source potential and are the likely source of oil in the Croatian External Dinarides.     

Estimates of current and historical fluxes of N, Ca, and K in the forest ecosystem Möhlin

Data on element fluxes (Ca, K, N) are presented which were obtained in the course of an extended project on element-cycling in a forested ecosystem near Möhlin, northwestern Switzerland. Current fluxes of Ca, K, and N could be compared with historical fluxes (1969–1993) with the help of soil chemistry inventories since 1969, data on the forest management, and atmospheric deposition. Since 1969, soil chemistry has significantly changed due to a distinct disintegration of humus. The decomposition of organic matter influenced strongly the element cycling. Due to this mineralization high amounts of N were released. It is, however, not fully clear in which chemical form N has been transferred out of the system. Two possible hypotheses on the N losses are defined. According to the calculated proton budget and measured element changes in the soil, it is hypothized that a large part of the mineralized organic N presumably was transformed into N₂ or more likely into N₂O. A complete nitrification of organically bound N to NO₃ ^– is also discussed but is, however, considered as less probable. In contrast to K, Ca proved to be a very sensitive element: the exchangeable Ca stock has been decreased sharply. The analysis of the current fluxes of Ca, K, and N reveals that nitrogen is abundantly present in the forest system with the consequence that the ecological balance is shifted in favour of N. Accordingly, the supply of base cations is rather scarce for the plants. Furthermore, the influence of forest management on element fluxes seems to be substantial, especially on the fluxes of base cations, but can be reduced with simple measures (e.g. removal of the bark of coniferous trees).     

Influence of sea-water intrusion and agricultural production on the Blato Aquifer,Island of Korčula,Croatia

The Blato aquifer is situated on the western side of the island of Korčula, southern Dalmatia, Croatia. The terrain is built of karstified carbonate rocks, mostly of the Cretaceous age. In the Blatsko karst polje there are four water supply wells with a total yield of about 60 l/s. The catchment area is 28 km². The whole terrain is tectonically disturbed and compressed; the most permeable fracture system is perpendicular to the structural “b” axes, which gives rise to a general groundwater direction towards the island’s northern coast. Average precipitation is 850 mm/year, but when there is less than 700 mm/year there is a high possibility of sea-water intrusion during the summer season. The risk significantly increases when dry years repeat. Hydrochemical research has shown that two main pollution sources occur at different hydrological moments: sea-water intrusion happens in the dry summer period when there is maximal extraction and almost no recharge; and the washing of nitrates and other humanly caused pollution indicators from the soil and epikarst belt during the rainy season. All factors must be taken into account when planning management and protection of such a sensitive environment.     

Preliminary investigation of underground settlements of Nevşehir Castle region using 2.5-D electrical resistivity tomography: Cappadocia,Turkey

The Nev?ehir Castle region located in the middle of Cappadocia with approximately cone shape is investigated for the existence of an underground city using the geophysical method of electrical resistivity tomography. Underground cities are commonly known to exist in Cappadocia. The current study has obtained important clues that there may be another one under the Nev?ehir Castle region. Several 2.5-D resistivity profiles totaling approximately 4 km in length surrounding the Nev?ehir Castle are measured to determine the distribution of electrical resistivities under the study area. Several high resistivity anomalies with a depth range 8–20 m are discovered to associate with a systematic void structure beneath the Nev?ehir Castle. Because of the high-resolution resistivity measurement system currently employed, we were able to isolate the void anomalies from the embedding structure. Using 3-D visualization techniques, we show the extension of the void structure under the measured profiles.     

Assessing coastal landscape vulnerability using geospatial techniques along Vizianagaram–Srikakulam coast of Andhra Pradesh,India

Vizianagaram–Srikakulam coastal shoreline consisting of beaches, mangrove swamps, tidal channel and mudflats is one of the vulnerable coasts in Andhra Pradesh, India. Five site-specific parameters, namely rate of geomorphology, coastal elevation, coastal slope, shoreline change and mean significant wave height, were chosen for constructing coastal vulnerability index and assessing coastal landscape vulnerability. The findings revealed a shift of 2.5 km in shoreline towards the land surface because of constant erosion and that of 1.82 km towards the sea due to accretion during 1997–2017. The rate of high erosion was found in zones IV and V, and high accretion was found in zones II and III. Coastal vulnerability index analysis revealed constant erosion along shoreline and sea level rise in the study area. Most of the coast in zone V has recorded very high vulnerability due to erosion, high slope, significant wave height and sea level rise. Erosion and accretion, significant wave height, sea level rise and slope are attributed to high vulnerability in zones III and IV. Zone II recorded moderate vulnerability. Relatively lower slope, mean sea wave height and sea level rise have made this zone moderately vulnerable. Very low vulnerability was found in zone I, and low vulnerability was recorded in zone II. Accretion, low slope and low sea level rise were found to be causative factors of lower vulnerability. Thus, zones III, IV and V should be accorded higher priorities for coastal management. The findings can be helpful in coastal land planning and management and preparing emergency plans of the coastal ecosystems.     

Investigation of lead and zinc dispersion from an abandoned mine site at Tyndrum, Scotland, using tree bark measurements

Tyndrum was an industrial mining area from 1741 until the 1920s where the main ores extracted were lead sulphide （galena） and zinc sulphide （sphalarite）. Situated in central Scotland, the now deserted site is identified as a highly polluted, barren area where the original waste residues from the mine, an ore processing and a smelting site are clearly evident. Previous studies have suggested that high levels of lead and zinc contaminants are still dispersed from this former mine site, both atmospherically and through fluvial transport. For example, high concentrations of Pb, identified by its isotopic signature as originating in Tyndrum, have been found in sediments in Loch Tay, 25 km east of this area. This paper presents the results of a study of the occurrence and magnitude of airborne contamination by dispersion from the former mine site using measurements of metal concentrations in tree bark. These naturally occurring ‘bio monitors＇, which accumulate airborne materials including heavy metals, have become an effective alternative to the more costly air-filter system, which is restricted in scope and coverage. Bark samples were acquired from Scots pine （Pinus sylvestris） trees, which are abundant around the derelict mine site. Suitable locations were chosen to investigate atmospheric transport and deposition of contaminants within the area.     

Source parameters estimation of 2003 Bam earthquake Mw 6.5 using empirical Green’s function method,based on an evolutionary approach

We determine the source parameters for 2003 (Mw 6.5) Bam, Iran, earthquake using an empirical Green’s function summation approach to model ground motions recorded by two strong motion stations at approximately 45 km epicentral distance. We introduce a genetic algorithm technique to optimize the fit to observed elastic response spectra. The proposed genetic algorithm technique allows us to explore the sensitivity of the results to multiple source parameters, including hypocenter location, focal mechanism (Strike and Dip), P-wave velocity in depth, fault dimension and rupture and healing velocities.     

Effect of thermal stress,condensation and freezing–thawing action on the degradation of stones on the Castle of Chambord,France

This work consists in estimating the role of climatic conditions in the degradation of two French limestones, tuffeau and Richemont stone, used in the construction and the restoration of the Castle of Chambord, the largest castle in the Loire Valley, France. Meteorological data, air temperature, air relative humidity and rainfall were statistically analysed in combination with stone data from thermal–humidity sensors inserted into the walls. The climatic conditions of the surrounding area were described to assess their role in enhancing the degradation of the stones through three weathering processes: thermal stress, condensation and freezing–thawing. The damage risks due to the weathering processes were taken into account not only through the bulk effects on the stone surfaces, but also their effects were extended to investigate the damage that occurs within the porous structure of the stone. Field observations showed that the main patterns of degradation affecting the stones of the castle are biological colonization and stone detachment in the form of stone spalling and exfoliation. The results of the analysis show that there is no risk of damage to the stones due to thermal stress. Moreover, the two stones experience similar overall trends against freezing–thawing processes. Finally, this study clearly highlights the important role of condensation in the degradation of the stones of the castle.     

Evaluation of urban underground space resources using a negative list method: Taking Xi’an City as an example in China

Utilization of urban underground space has become a vital approach to alleviate the strain on urban land resources, and to optimize the structure and pattem of the city. It is also very important to improve the city environment, build livable city and increase the capacity of the city. Based on the analysis of existing evaluation methods and their problems, a method for evaluating underground space resources based on a negative list of adverse factors affecting underground space development is proposed, to be primarily used in urban planning stages. A list of the adverse factors is established, including limiting factors, constraining factors and influencing factors. Taking Xi’an as an example, using a geographical information system platform, a negative list of adverse factors for the underground space resources in Xi’ an City are evaluated, and preventive measures are proposed. Natural resources, exploitable resources, and the potential growth of exploitable underground space resources are evaluated. Underground space assessment in the different development stages of the city, collaborative utilization and safety evaluation for multiple subsurface resources, environmental impact and assessment, as well as evaluation methods based on big data and intelligent optimization algorithms are all discussed with the aim of serving city planning and construction.     

Correlation Fractal and Multifractal Characteristics of Seismic Activity in the Taiwan Area, China

Based on the analysis of newly collected data of plate tectonics, distribution of active faults and crustal deformation, the Taiwan area is divided into two seismic regions and six seismic belts. Then, correlation fractal dimensions of all the regions and belts are calculated, and the fractal characteristics of hypocenteral distribution can be quantitatively analyzed. Finally, multifractal dimensions Dq and f(α) are calculated by using the earthquake catalog of the past 11 years in the Taiwan area. This study indicates that (1) there exists a favorable corresponding relationship between spatial images of seismic activity described with correlation fractal dimension analysis and tectonic settings; (2) the temporal structure of earthquakes is not single but multifractal fractal, and the pattern of Dq variation with time is a good indicator for predicting strong earthquake events.     

Empirical estimation of isostatic uplift using the lake-tilting method at lake Fegen and lake S?ven, southwestern Sweden

A nonuniform glacio-isostatic uplift results in differential uplift for different parts of a lake. If the lake outlet is situated in the area with the greatest rate of uplift, then the lake will be continuously transgressed. Ancient lake levels can be estimated by dating transgressed peat at different depths in such a lake. Two lakes in southwestern Sweden have been investigated by this method and the course of glacio-isostatic uplift has been determined empirically. The uplift can be expressed by an exponential function through the following formula

News coverage of drought impacts and vulnerability in the US Carolinas, 1998–2007

Regional newspaper coverage from 1998 to 2007 is examined to expand our understanding of the complexity of drought impacts and vulnerability in the Carolinas. Coverage at the height of two droughts reports drought effects extending beyond first-order impacts on broadly recognized sectors, such as agriculture, livestock, and water supplies to recreation and tourism and impacts on businesses, manufacturing, and households. Impacts were accompanied by social controversies with near-term and long-term planning and development implications. Key concepts in vulnerability analysis were used to structure the review of vulnerability reporting. The coverage of differential vulnerability, although limited, identified individual, household, local, and cross-scale factors that influenced the severity of impacts. Articles also highlighted additional interacting stresses in some sectors contributing to the severity of impacts experienced. An elaborated understanding of drought impacts and vulnerabilities is a necessary, early step in advancing efforts to developing a risk-based drought management approach.