系列14C样品贝叶斯法日历年龄校正研究进展

系列14C样品贝叶斯法日历年龄校正研究已成为当前14C年代学中一个热点,系统综述了时序已知、时序间隔已知和时序间隔近似已知系列14C样品日历年龄校正研究的历史、原理、计算方法及其在树轮、泥炭、地层等领域上应用进展,对影响系列样品贝叶斯分析获得14C日历年龄区间的主要因素以及未来发展方向作了归纳.大量事例研究结果表明系列样品贝叶斯分析的实质在于贝叶斯方法从统计的角度灵活地把地层信息以概率方式加入到14C日历年龄校正过程中,获得比单个14C年代校正精度更高的日历年龄.     

银川平原深层地下水14C年龄校正

地下水¹⁴C年龄的校正精度取决于对地下水溶解无机碳演化过程中影响地下水¹⁴C活度主要因素的准确识别及其影响程度的定量评价。以银川平原为例,在进行银川平原承压水反向地球化学反应路径模拟的基础上,识别出影响区内深层地下水碳酸演化的主要作用并进行深层地下水¹⁴C年龄的校正。研究认为,控制银川平原深层地下水化学演化的主要反应路径为碳酸盐矿物的沉淀和长石、角闪石、石膏等矿物的溶解以及Ca-Na离子交换。地下水流路径上所发生的水文地球化学反应对路径上¹⁴C的浓度变化影响较小。地下水¹⁴C年龄校正结果表明,除补给区和承压水水位漏斗区外,银川平原承压水年龄均在2 000 a以上,属“古水”,天然条件下径流缓慢、地下水更新速度小。在承压水水位漏斗区外,沿地下水流方向,地下水年龄逐渐增大;而在承压水集中开采区,承压水的年龄明显小于路径上游地下水,潜水与承压水之间的垂向水力联系比较密切。     

香港地区环境^14C水平研究

香港地处中国的东南端，是东南亚的发达城市，矿物燃料有大量消耗。最近广东深圳大亚湾核电站已经启动，探测和研究环境^14C水平有利于环境监测。我们采集了香港不同地区生长的一年生陆地草本植物，海洋植物和大气中的CO2进行^14C测定，并与近年来中国广西地区采集的桂皮油样品测定结果作比较。结果表明，香港地区的环境^14C水平同广西地区几乎没有差别，但都明显高于预示的平均值。目前数据作为监察基础，尚没有观察到有明显影响。     

北京市永定河流域地下水^14C年龄的初步分析

应用同位素方法初步分析北京郊区永定河流域地下水的演化特点。沿永定河冲洪积扇地下水流动方向布置取样剖面，共有取样点14个，对采集的水样进行^14C和氚含量分析，并确定地下水同位素年龄。浅层孔隙水的^14C年龄的变化范围为730～4900a，深层孔隙水为13420-22480a；^14C年龄在垂直方向上由浅部至深部逐渐增大，最大变化幅度为从3010a增至22480a；浅层孔隙水的氚含量都在14．99～30．56TU之间，深层孔隙水大部分在0．51～4．71TU之间。运用地下水^14C和氚年龄在垂向和水平方向变化的结果，验证了地下水的流向并计算了地下水的流速变化范围为5．02～62．63m／a，从山前至平原浅层地下水径流速度逐渐变小，反映了地下水水平径流强度逐渐减弱，地下水交替逐渐变差，浅层孔隙水以垂向交替为主，深层孔隙水以水平径流为主。     

北京降尘宇宙成因核素^14C和^10Be分布特征木——祝贺刘东生先生九十华诞

对2006年4月北京降尘进行了^10Be，^14C和δ^13C等项分析，初步结果显示：降尘^10Be浓度与黄土比较接近，降尘中黑炭的δ^13C数值与黄土有机质接近；降尘中黑炭的^14C年龄大致可划分为两个特征区间，反映了降尘物质有两大源区。本工作在刘东生先生指导下完成，谨以此文祝贺刘先生九十华诞。     

^14C年代测定的碳化锂制样法的研究

Described in detail in this paper are the principle of Li2C2 chemical reaction and the experimental apparatus and chemical procedure. Conditional experiments on reaction temperature, Li: CO2 proportion and C2H2 yield have led to the establishment of optimum working conditions of the Li2C2 method. A comparison between the Li2C2 method and the SrC2 method previously developed in our lab. shows that the former has the advantage over the latter.     

反向地球化学模拟技术在地下水14C年龄校正中应用的进展与思考

地下水¹⁴C年龄校正一直是地下水年代学研究中的一个热点问题,将反向地球化学路径模型与同位素质量传输模型耦合起来,在综合考虑不同碳源、不同水文地球化学反应对¹⁴C质量传输影响的基础上,提出了一种新的综合性的校正方法,从而使地下水¹⁴C定年技术得到了进一步发展。识别深层地下水演化过程中影响¹⁴C浓度变化的主要因素并定量确定其对地下水¹⁴C浓度的影响程度是地下水¹⁴C校正的精度和可信度的重要考虑因素;在应用水文地球化学路径模拟技术进行地下水¹⁴C年龄校正时,必须要充分考虑地下水补给环境特点以及反向地球化学模拟模型中的非可行解的排除。     

Radiocarbon calibration beyond 20,000 C yr B.P. by means of planktonic foraminifera of the Iberian Margin

We present a new set of ¹⁴C ages obtained by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) on planktonic foraminifera from a deep-sea core collected off the Iberian Margin (MD952042). This site, at 37°N, is distant from the high-latitude zones where ¹⁴C reservoir age is large and variable. Many independent proxies — alkenones, magnetic susceptibility, ice-rafted debris, foraminifera stable isotopes, abundances of foraminifera, pollen, and dinoflagellates — show abrupt changes correlative with Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events of the last glacial period. The good stratigraphic agreement of all proxies — from the fine to the coarse-size fractions — indicates that the foraminifera ¹⁴C ages are representative of the different sediment fractions. To obtain reliable ¹⁴C ages of foraminifera beyond 20,000 ¹⁴C yr B.P., we leached the shells prior to carbonate hydrolysis and subsequent analysis. For a calendar age scale, we matched the Iberian Margin U₃₇^K′ profile with that of Greenland Summit δ¹⁸O. Both are proxies for temperature, which in models varies synchronously in the two areas. The match creates no spurious jumps in sedimentation rate and requires only a limited number of tie points. Except for ages older than 40,000 ¹⁴C yr B.P., Greenland's GISP2 and GRIP records yield similar calendars. The ¹⁴C and imported calendar ages of the Iberian Margin record are then compared to data — from lacustrine annual varves and from corals and speleothems dated by U-Th — previously used to extend the calibration beyond 20,000 ¹⁴C yr B.P. The new record follows a smooth pattern between 23,000 and 50,000 cal yr B.P. We find good agreement with the previous data sets between 23,000 and 31,000 cal yr B.P. In the interval between 33,000 and 41,000 cal yr B.P., for which previous records disagree by up to 5000 cal yr, the Iberian Margin record closely follows the polynomial curve that was previously defined by an interpolation of the coral ages and runs between the Lake Suigetsu and the Bahamian speleothem data sets.     

A Review on Techniques and Applications of Biomarker Compound-specific Radiocarbon Analysis

Eglinton (1996) firstly performed the Compound-Specific Radiocarbon Analysis (CSRA) in marine sediments, providing a new approach to understanding the organic carbon source. The applications of CSRA technique were developed rapidly and widely used in oceanography, biogeochemistry and paleoclimatology. However, because of the extremely low amount and interference with complex substrates, mostly source-specific biomarkers were hard to be separated from environmental matrix samples. Therefore, how to harvest pure biomarkers, from complex natural sample matrixes, has been the limitation of CSRA technique, especially for ultra-small size CSRA. Recently, various preparative chromatography techniques have been carried out to improve the purity and recovery efficiency of the target compounds. This paper aimed to introduce the techniques and applications of CSRA for common source-specific biomarkers in the natural environment.     

High-resolution chronology for the Mesoamerican urban center of Teotihuacan derived from Bayesian statistics of radiocarbon and archaeological data

A high-resolution ¹⁴C chronology for the Teopancazco archaeological site in the Teotihuacan urban center of Mesoamerica was generated by Bayesian analysis of 33 radiocarbon dates and detailed archaeological information related to occupation stratigraphy, pottery and archaeomagnetic dates. The calibrated intervals obtained using the Bayesian model are up to ca. 70% shorter than those obtained with individual calibrations. For some samples, this is a consequence of plateaus in the part of the calibration curve covered by the sample dates (2500 to 1450 ¹⁴C yr BP). Effects of outliers are explored by comparing the results from a Bayesian model that incorporates radiocarbon data for two outlier samples with the same model excluding them. The effect of outliers was more significant than expected. Inclusion of radiocarbon dates from two altered contexts, 500 ¹⁴C yr earlier than those for the first occupational phase, results in ages calculated by the model earlier than the archaeological records. The Bayesian chronology excluding these outliers separates the first two Teopancazco occupational phases and suggests that ending of the Xolalpan phase was around cal AD 550, 100 yr earlier than previously estimated and in accordance with previously reported archaeomagnetic dates from lime plasters for the same site.     

Application of Dimensional Analysis in Calibration of a Discrete Element Model for Rock Deformation and Fracture

Summary A discrete element approach was used in the simulation of rock fracture. The numerical synthetic material was made of rigid circular particles or cylinders that have interaction through normal and shear springs. The cylinders were bonded to each other at the contact points to withstand the applied loads. To characterize the microscopic properties of this synthetic material, a dimensional analysis approach was presented. It was shown that the dimensionless parameters and graphs obtained were useful tools for fast and efficient calibration of a synthetic material. This calibration method was employed for finding a numerical model for Pennsylvania Blue Sandstone. The numerical model could mimic many deformational and failure characteristics of the sandstone in both conventional and some non-conventional stress paths.     

颗粒分析用量筒的规格标准和计量标定

文章讨论了国内外用于密度计法颗粒分析用量筒的计量标准的规定，提出了相应的建议和标定方法。     

基于贝叶斯理论的水文不确定性分析研究进展

水文过程受众多自然和人为因素影响,决定了其变化的极端复杂性,表现为确定性的动态规律与不确定性的统计规律共存。水文不确定性分析的理论和方法在认识水文规律中发挥着重要作用,其中贝叶斯作为一种主要理论方法在水文水资源相关问题的研究中得到了较广泛的应用。本文评述了贝叶斯理论在水文频率分析、水文预报、确定性和不确定性方法耦合等研究中的进展,对基于贝叶斯理论的水文不确定性重点研究内容进行了展望。     

基于主成分分析和贝叶斯正则化方法的神经网络年最大洪峰流量预测模型探讨

针时水文预测建模中输入因子过多而导致神经网络结构规模过大,泛化能力差的问题,利用主成分分析和贝叶斯正则化方法对神经网络进行改进,优化网络结构,从而提高泛化能力。以洮儿河流域镇西站年最大洪峰流量预测为例,研究结果表明,改进的神经网络预测方法与传统的神经网络方法相比,泛化能力有显著提高,而且网络的收敛也比较稳定,实际预测中效果良好。     

Major- and trace-element characterization, expanded distribution, and a new chronology for the latest Pleistocene Glacier Peak tephras in western North America

The Glacier Peak tephra beds are among the most widespread and arguably some of the most important late Pleistocene chronostratigraphic markers in western North America. These beds represent a series of closely-spaced Plinian and sub-Plinian eruptions from Glacier Peak, Washington. The two most widespread beds, Glacier Peak ‘G’ and ‘B’, are reliably distinguished by their glass major and trace element abundances. These beds are also more broadly distributed than previously considered, covering at least 550,000 and 260,000 km², respectively. A third bed, the Irvine bed, known only from southern Alberta, is similar in its major-element composition to the Glacier Peak G bed, but it shows considerable differences in trace element concentrations. The Irvine bed is likely considerably older than the G and B tephras and probably records an additional Plinian eruption, perhaps also from Glacier Peak but from a different magma than G through B. A review of the published radiocarbon ages, new ages in this study, and consideration in a Bayesian framework suggest that the widespread G and B beds are several hundred years older than widely assumed. Our revised age is about 11,600 ¹⁴C yr BP or a calibrated age (at 2 sigma) of 13,710-13,410 cal yr BP.     

贝叶斯判别分析在中长期径流预报中的应用研究

基于贝叶斯判别分析原理,考虑径流形成的特点及物理成因,选择研究区碧流河水库1959~2011年的实测资料,且将径流分为5个级别,用相关系数模型,考虑因子的不确定性,筛选出相关性高、彼此间独立性强的10个判别因子,分别构建基于朴素贝叶斯分类器(N-Bayes)和贝叶斯判别准则(DBayes)的年径流属性级别预报模型,并利用研究区2001~2011年资料进行了试报和检验。预报结果表明:两种模型的预报结果相近,准确率均超过70%,D-Bayes的预报效果略优于N-Bayes,初步说明:贝叶斯判别分析原理在水文预报中的应用,有着较好的前景。