Complexity analysis of rainfall and runoff time series based on sample entropy in different temporal scales

This study applied sample entropy (SampEn) to rainfall and runoff time series to investigate the complexity of different temporal scales. Rainfall and runoff time series with intervals of 1, 10, 30, 90, and 365 days for the Wu-Tu upstream watershed were used. Thereafter, SampEn was computed for the five rainfall and runoff time series. The results show that for the various temporal scales, comparisons of the complexity between the rainfall and runoff time series based on the SampEn are inconsistent. Calculating the dynamic SampEn further elucidated variations of the complexity in the rainfall and runoff time series. In addition, the results show that SampEn measures of the rainfall and runoff time series are typically higher than the approximate entropy measures of the rainfall and runoff time series for a specific temporal scale. The complexity increases when the sample size increases for a specific temporal scale. Furthermore, temporal scales with low complexity and high predictability are obtained from the variations of SampEn for the rainfall and runoff time series with different temporal scales, thereby providing a reference for determining the appropriate temporal scale for rainfall and runoff time series forecasting.     

Time vs. Money: A Quantitative Evaluation of Monitoring Frequency vs. Monitoring Duration

The National Research Council has estimated that over 126,000 contaminated groundwater sites are unlikely to achieve low ug/L clean‐up goals in the foreseeable future. At these sites, cost‐effective, long‐term monitoring schemes are needed in order to understand the long‐term changes in contaminant concentrations. Current monitoring optimization schemes rely on site‐specific evaluations to optimize groundwater monitoring frequency. However, when using linear regression to estimate the long‐term zero‐order or first‐order contaminant attenuation rate, the effect of monitoring frequency and monitoring duration on the accuracy and confidence for the estimated attenuation rate is not site‐specific. For a fixed number of monitoring events, doubling the time between monitoring events (e.g., changing from quarterly monitoring to semi‐annual monitoring) will double the accuracy of estimated attenuation rate. For a fixed monitoring frequency (e.g., semi‐annual monitoring), increasing the number of monitoring events by 60% will double the accuracy of the estimated attenuation rate. Combining these two factors, doubling the time between monitoring events (e.g., quarterly monitoring to semi‐annual monitoring) while decreasing the total number of monitoring events by 38% will result in no change in the accuracy of the estimated attenuation rate. However, the time required to collect this dataset will increase by 25%. Understanding that the trade‐off between monitoring frequency and monitoring duration is not site‐specific should simplify the process of optimizing groundwater monitoring frequency at contaminated groundwater sites.     

Springflow hydrographs: eogenetic vs. telogenetic karst

Matrix permeability in the range of 10(-11) to 10(-14) m(2) characterizes eogenetic karst, where limestones have not been deeply buried. In contrast, limestones of postburial, telogenetic karst have matrix permeabilities on the order of 10(-15) to 10(-20) m(2). Is this difference in matrix permeability paralleled by a difference in the behavior of springs draining eogenetic and telogenetic karst? Log Q/Q(min) flow duration curves from 11 eogenetic-karst springs in Florida and 12 telogenetic-karst springs in Missouri, Kentucky, and Switzerland, plot in different fields because of the disparate slopes of the curves. The substantially lower flow variability in eogenetic-karst springs, which results in the steeper slopes of their flow duration curves, also makes for a strong contrast in patterns (e.g., "flashiness") between the eogenetic-karst and telogenetic-karst spring hydrographs. With respect to both spring hydrographs and the flow duration curves derived from them, the eogenetic-karst springs of Florida are more like basalt springs of Idaho than the telogenetic-karst springs of the study. From time-series analyses on discharge records for 31 springs and published time-series results for 28 additional sites spanning 11 countries, we conclude that (1) the ratio of maximum to mean (Q(max)/Q(mean)) discharge is less in springs of eogenetic karst than springs of telogenetic karst; (2) aquifer inertia (system memory) is larger in eogenetic karst; (3) eogenetic-karst aquifers take longer to respond to input signals; and (4) high-frequency events affect discharge less in eogenetic karst. All four of these results are consistent with the hypothesis that accessible storage is larger in eogenetic-karst aquifers than in telogenetic-karst aquifers.     

On the temporal resolution of mass balance models for soluble chemicals in soils

A daily step model of chemical mass balance in the topsoil is presented and validated at the three experimental sites in Europe, and subsequently applied to perform two distinct numerical experiments. First, an experiment was run using hypothetic soluble chemicals with half‐lives ranging from 10^?1 to 10⁴, with a range of representative European climate and soil properties, assuming uniform constant emissions of the chemicals throughout the year. Chemical mass in soil from the daily step model calculations can be surrogated by the monthly step model consistently parameterized in terms of absolute values, patterns and inter‐monthly variability with decreasing accuracy at higher chemical half‐lives. Leaching fluxes can be also surrogated by the monthly step calculation, although with higher errors. Runoff is correct in the order of magnitude, but it shows only a weak correlation with the monthly mean of the daily model output. For leaching and runoff, the accuracy depends mainly on soil properties. Variability is well reproduced for both leaching and runoff. The second experiment represented a pulse emission of chemicals discharged on a single day in a 12‐month period. Results from the annual average mass of chemicals in the soil, annual runoff and leaching fluxes from the daily step model were compared with the results obtained from the experiment assuming constant‐removal rates for the year. The two values are within a factor of 10 for half‐lives longer than 10 days; therefore, it is possible to emulate the daily step model with a simple constant‐removal rate model for screening‐level assessment. The experiments suggest that simpler schemes may be a practical screening‐level approximation of detailed daily step models for both continuous and pulse emissions, two cases providing extreme bounds of variation to real world emissions. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Leaf litter decomposition in remote oceanic islands: The role of macroinvertebrates vs. microbial decomposition of native vs. exotic plant species

Freshwater communities on remote oceanic islands can be depauperate due to the influence of biogeographic processes that operate over a range of spatial scales, influencing the colonization of organisms, and events that shape local freshwater assemblages. The consequences of this paucity in organism diversity for the functioning of these ecosystems are, however, not well understood.Here, we examine the relative decomposition rate of leaf litter of native vs. exotic origin by aquatic macroinvertebrates and microbial communities in an isolated and depauperate oceanic environment.Bags containing a standard amount of leaf litter of each of 10 tree species (5 native and 5 non-native species) were deployed on two streams. Two types of bags differing in mesh size were used to allow or prevent the access of leaf litter to macroinvertebrates, respectively. Over a period of 28 days, mass loss of leaf litter was similar in the two bag types suggesting that macroinvertebrates had little influence on the break down of leaf litter in this system. In addition, there was no difference in mass loss of leaf litter of native and exotic origin. Decomposition rates were highly species-specific suggesting that decomposition rates were related to inhibitory substance specific of each leaf species. Our results add to the wider literature by showing that in depauperate and isolated ecosystems, and in contrast to temperate continental ecosystems, decomposition of plant litter by aquatic macroinvertebrates is negligible.     

Comparison of relative permeability-saturation-pressure parametric models for infiltration and redistribution of a light nonaqueous-phase liquid in sandy porous media

To test and evaluate the ability of commonly used constitutive relations for multifluid flow predictions, results of numerical flow and transport simulations are compared to experimental data. Three quantitative experiments were conducted in 1-m-long vertical columns. The columns were filled with either a uniform sand, a sand with a broad particle-size distribution, or with a layered system where a layer of a course-textured uniform sand was placed in an otherwise finer-textured uniform sand. After establishing variably water-saturated conditions, a pulse of a light nonaqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) was injected uniformly at a constant rate. Water and LNAPL saturations were measured as a function of time and elevation with a dual-energy gamma-radiation system. The infiltration and redistribution of the LNAPL were simulated with nonhysteretic and hysteretic parametric relative permeability-saturation-pressure (k-S-P) models. The models were calibrated using two-phase air-water retention data and an established scaling theory. The nonhysteretic Brooks-Corey k-S-P model, which utilizes the Burdine relative permeability model, yielded predictions that closely matched the experimental data. Use of the nonhysteretic and hysteretic k-S-P models, based on the van Genuchten S-P relations and k-S relations derived from the Mualem relative permeability model, did not agree as well with the experimental data as those obtained with the Brooks-Corey k-S-P model. Explanations for the differences in performance of the three tested parametric k-S-P models are proposed.     

Comparison of radar and gauge precipitation data in watershed models across varying spatial and temporal scales

Precipitation is a key control on watershed hydrologic modelling output, with errors in rainfall propagating through subsequent stages of water quantity and quality analysis. Most watershed models incorporate precipitation data from rain gauges; higher‐resolution data sources are available, but they are associated with greater computational requirements and expertise. Here, we investigate whether the Multisensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE or Stage IV Next‐Generation Radar) data improve the accuracy of streamflow simulations using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), compared with rain gauge data. Simulated flows from 2002 to 2010 at five timesteps were compared with observed flows for four nested subwatersheds of the Neuse River basin in North Carolina (21‐, 203‐, 2979‐, and 10 100‐km² watershed area), using a multi‐objective function, informal likelihood‐weighted calibration approach. Across watersheds and timesteps, total gauge precipitation was greater than radar precipitation, but radar data showed a conditional bias of higher rainfall estimates during large events (>25–50 mm/day). Model parameterization differed between calibrations with the two datasets, despite the fact that all watershed characteristics were the same across simulation scenarios. This underscores the importance of linking calibration parameters to realistic processes. SWAT simulations with both datasets underestimated median and low flows, whereas radar‐based simulations were more accurate than gauge‐based simulations for high flows. At coarser timesteps, differences were less pronounced. Our results suggest that modelling efforts in watersheds with poor rain gauge coverage can be improved with MPE radar data, especially at short timesteps. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Beardsley vs. Faith: physical diversity among H5 chondrites

The microstructure and some physico-mechanical properties of Beardsley and Faith, both H5 chondrites, were compared. Although the bulk sample porosities are respectively 9.1% and 14.5%, suggesting lower consolidation of Faith, the effective porosities are 5.63% and 1.79%—much higher for Beardsley. The material of Faith, characterized by vugs, vesicles and closed channels—abundant but all sized below 0.01 μm—is of higher strength than that of Beardsley, where joints, fissures, open channels and microcracks are sized from 0.1 to 10 μm. The higher elastic properties of Faith are shown by the velocity of the compressional wave of 6.66 km s⁻¹ against that of 5.12 km s⁻¹ for Beardsley. An example of physical diversity among chondrites to the same chemical-petrologic type is therefore demonstrated.     

Complexity vs. Simplicity: Groundwater Model Ranking Using Information Criteria

A groundwater model characterized by a lack of field data about hydraulic model parameters and boundary conditions combined with many observation data sets for calibration purpose was investigated concerning model uncertainty. Seven different conceptual models with a stepwise increase from 0 to 30 adjustable parameters were calibrated using PEST. Residuals, sensitivities, the Akaike information criterion (AIC and AICc), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and Kashyap's information criterion (KIC) were calculated for a set of seven inverse calibrated models with increasing complexity. Finally, the likelihood of each model was computed. Comparing only residuals of the different conceptual models leads to an overparameterization and certainty loss in the conceptual model approach. The model employing only uncalibrated hydraulic parameters, estimated from sedimentological information, obtained the worst AIC, BIC, and KIC values. Using only sedimentological data to derive hydraulic parameters introduces a systematic error into the simulation results and cannot be recommended for generating a valuable model. For numerical investigations with high numbers of calibration data the BIC and KIC select as optimal a simpler model than the AIC. The model with 15 adjusted parameters was evaluated by AIC as the best option and obtained a likelihood of 98%. The AIC disregards the potential model structure error and the selection of the KIC is, therefore, more appropriate. Sensitivities to piezometric heads were highest for the model with only five adjustable parameters and sensitivity coefficients were directly influenced by the changes in extracted groundwater volumes.     

The global thermohaline circulation in box and spectral low-order models. Part 1: single basin models

Much of the knowledge about ocean circulation stems from rather simple analytical models. The behavior of the meridional overturning and, more specifically, the thermohaline-induced part of the global ocean circulation, under changing surface conditions, is often judged by the bifurcation structure of box models with very low (low-order) resolution. The present study proposes a new low-order model of the thermohaline-driven circulation, which is constructed by severe truncation of a spectral decomposition of the two-dimensional equations of motion (vorticity and heat/salt balances). The physical ingredients of the new model are superior to box models because it has a continuous lateral and vertical representation of the fields and finite diffusion coefficients for heat and salt. The building of the spectral model involves much mathematical labor because the structure functions must be constructed in accordance with the boundary conditions for conservation of momentum, mass, heat, and salt. Furthermore, a number of complicated coupling coefficients must be evaluated. Like the box models, the spectral model is a dynamical system with mathematical complexity, but in most of the versions that we analyze, it still can be handled by standard analytical procedures. These versions are the spectral counterparts of the classical box models of Stommel, Rooth, and Welander, adjusted to the Atlantic overturning. A detailed comparison of the model types reveals a similar bifurcation pattern of box and spectral low-order configurations under symmetric and asymmetric forcing conditions and slight perturbations thereof (we use mixed boundary conditions for heat and salt and the surface freshwater flux as a continuation parameter). Comparison of the spectral low-order models with models towards a higher resolved range, namely, the two-dimensional overturning models for the meridional plane, reveals a close resemblance as well. A major difference of box and spectral models is the appearance of parameter windows in the latter, where only unstable steady states exist. The spectral models then show limit cycles, as well as chaotic trajectories with time scales of thousands of years.     

Brazilian vs. Paraguayan streams: Differences in water quality in a cross-border subtropical region

Monitoring programs are among the first steps to develop robust management strategies, especially in international transboundary waters. Understanding how water quality parameters are impacted by different types of land use promotes a baseline for stakeholders to define the best governance for the management of water resources. Seeking to provide this type of information, we sampled 24 streams – 12 in Brazil and 12 in Paraguay – in February, April, July, September, and November 2019. We determined water quality parameters, grouped into three categories: morphometric, physical and chemical, and nutrients. We explored differences in water quality parameters between countries, and over a one-year sampling. We also tested whether Brazilian and Paraguayan streams are impacted by agriculture, urbanization, and forest cover. Finally, we performed a partial RDA to test the influence of land use on water quality parameters and controlled spatial autocorrelation by including spatial variables (dbMEM) as a condition. Most of the water quality parameters showed significant differences between countries; only turbidity, and pH, presented significant differences between countries and sampling periods, and only water temperature varied significantly along the year. We did not find evidence that different types of land use are causing physical and chemical variance in Brazilian and Paraguayan streams (R² = 0.06, p = 0.68). In conclusion, the results evidenced that the main differences in the water quality parameters occur between countries. Based on the results, transboundary governance can use these data to implement integrated water resources management cooperation.     

Estimating solar ultraviolet irradiance (290/385 nm) by means of the spectral parametric models: SPCTRAL2 and SMARTS2

Since the discovery of the ozone depletion in Antarctic and the globally declining trend of stratospheric ozone concentration, public and scientific concern has been raised in the last decades. A very important consequence of this fact is the increased broadband and spectral UV radiation in the environment and the biological effects and heath risks that may take place in the near future. The absence of widespread measurements of this radiometric flux has lead to the development and use of alternative estimation procedures such as the parametric approaches. Parametric models compute the radiant energy using available atmospheric parameters. Some parametric models compute the global solar irradiance at surface level by addition of its direct beam and diffuse components. In the present work, we have developed a comparison between two cloudless sky parametrization schemes. Both methods provide an estimation of the solar spectral irradiance that can be integrated spectrally within the limits of interest. For this test we have used data recorded in a radiometric station located at Granada (37.180°N, 3.580°W, 660 m a.m.s.l.), an inland location. The database includes hourly values of the relevant variables covering the years 1994/95. The performance of the models has been tested in relation to their predictive capability of global solar irradiance in the UV range (290/385 nm). After our study, it appears that information concerning the aerosol radiative effects is fundamental in order to obtain a good estimation. The original version of SPCTRAL2 provides estimates of the experimental values with negligible mean bias deviation. This suggests not only the appropriateness of the model but also the convenience of the aerosol features fixed in it to Granada conditions. SMARTS2 model offers increased flexibility concerning the selection of different aerosol models included in the code and provides the best results when the selected models are those considered as urban. Although SMARTS2 provide slightly worse results, both models give estimates of solar ultraviolet irradiance with mean bias deviation below 5%, and root mean square deviation close to experimental errors.     

Equatorial ionosphere: IRI and NeQuick modeling vs. radio tomographic imaging

The outputs of the IRI-2001 and NeQuick ionospheric models are compared with radio tomographic (RT) images of the ionosphere near the crest of the equatorial anomaly (EA) between Manila and Shanghai (about 850 cross sections overall). The values of the slant total electron content measured in an RT experiment as opposed to the corresponding values derived from the IRI-2001 and NeQuick models are analyzed. A comparison of model cross sections and ionosonde measurements revealed discrepancies in the critical frequencies of the ionospheric F2 layer, which were the strongest in the region of high spatial gradients close to the crest of the EA. The specific features of the dynamics of the EA are discussed based on the results of the models and radio tomography. Our analysis has shown that the IRI-2001 and NeQuick models mainly reproduce the “plasma fountain effect” but are incapable of recognizing the stable structural features of the EA observed on RT reconstructions, for example, the daytime orientation of the mature core of the EA parallel to geomagnetic field lines. A method to correct the IRI-2001 and NeQuick models in the vicinity of the EA crest is suggested.     

River profile evolution by plucking in lithologically heterogeneous landscapes: Uniform uplift vs. tilting

Recent studies provide a theoretical framework for understanding the incision of bedrock rivers by plucking. These studies motivated the development of a numerical model that simulates plucking to explore the evolution of channel profiles in lithologically diverse terrain. In the main governing equation, the incision rate is calculated as a function of the difference between the boundary shear stress and a threshold shear stress needed to entrain blocks from the bed. Because an earlier study suggested that plucking is the primary incisional process in the northern Sierra Nevada (CA), the model was calibrated to approximate the conditions in the region. The profiles of the simulated rivers are stair-stepped, with sharp breaks-in-slope at lithological boundaries. This characteristic is common to rivers draining the northern Sierra Nevada, suggesting that the size of blocks available for plucking, as mediated by the fracture density, may be the primary control on their gradients. Moreover, the numerical experiments highlight the role of threshold shear stresses in the post-orogenic persistence of steep reaches and relict terrain. Finally, comparisons of profiles evolved under tilting or uniform uplift scenarios provide insights into how these different uplift modes affect profile evolution. For example, whereas uniform uplift generates a single migrating knickpoint at the range front, multiple migrating knickpoints can form simultaneously along a river in a tilting landscape. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Wave effects in global ocean modeling: parametrizations vs. forcing from a wave model

One of the main challenges of the Copernicus Marine Service is the implementation of coupled ocean/waves systems that accurately estimate the momentum and energy fluxes provided by the atmosphere to the ocean. This study aims to investigate the impact of forcing the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) ocean model with forecasts from the wave model of Météo-France (MFWAM) to improve classical air-sea flux parametrizations, these latter being mostly driven by the 10-m wind. Three wave-related processes, namely, wave-state-dependent stress, Stokes drift-related effects (Stokes-Coriolis force, Stokes drift advection on tracers and on mass), and wave-state-dependent surface turbulence, are examined at a global scale with a horizontal resolution of 0.25°. Three years of sensitivity simulations (2014–2016) show positive feedback on sea surface temperature (SST) and currents when the wave model is used. A significant reduction in SST bias is observed in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. This is mainly due to the more realistic momentum flux provided by the wave model. In mid-latitudes, the most interesting impact occurs during the summer stratification, when the wind is low and the wave model produces a reduction in the turbulence linked with wave breaking. Magnitudes of the large-scale currents in the equatorial region are also improved by 10% compared to observations. In general, it is shown that using the wave model reduces on average the momentum and energy fluxes to the ocean in tropical regions, but increases them in mid-latitudes. These differences are in the order of 10 to 20% compared with the classical parametrizations found in stand-alone ocean models.