水玻璃加固土的弹塑性破坏模型

水玻璃加固土虽然可以被看作为一种弹塑性介质,但是很难用通常的弹塑性模型来描述.本文通过对一系列损伤模型的分析,分别推导建立了水玻璃加固土的弹性与损伤、塑性与损伤本构关系并建立了水玻璃加固土的弹塑性损伤模型.通过与试验结果的对比,证明了本文所建立的水玻璃加固土的弹塑性损伤模型是合理的.     

隧洞变形引起的TBM施工事故综合风险分析

国内采用岩石隧道掘进机（简称TBM）施工的隧洞呈现深埋、超长趋势,变形引起的TBM卡机事故屡见不鲜,为了减少这些事故,可以预先对变形引起的TBM风险事故进行综合评价,因此,在单元风险研究的基础上对综合风险计算及评价准则进行研究。采用概率理论推导了变形引起的TBM风险事故的综合风险概率的计算模型,根据推导的模型可以近似计算出5类后果等级事故发生的概率;采用TBM的卡机时间与纯掘进时间的比值作为分级指标,结合以往TBM施工的统计数据划分工期损失后果等级,再结合风险的概率分级,建立变形综合风险评价准则;采用研究的理论,对工程选取段TBM施工卡机风险进行了两种工况下的计算分析。计算结果表明,施工时若不采取任何措施TBM施工风险比较大,但采用合理的措施之后风险可控制在可接受的范围内。     

预应力锚索预应力损失研究

分析了岩土锚索预应力损失的主要因素,建立了锚索预应力损失随时间变化模型,在此基础上,较精确地推算了锚索预应力损失情况及最终损失量,并为锚索预应力计算提供理论依据。通过对襄-十高速公路锚索预应力模拟计算,较好地印证了锚索预应力损失模型的合理性。     

吉林省重大暴雨过程灾害损失风险预评估

利用吉林省50县市1951-2013年逐日降水资料、暴雨灾情损失数据,1：5万DEM数据、水系、TM遥感卫星影像资料以及GDP、人口等数据,探讨了吉林省重大暴雨过程灾害损失风险的主要影响因素,确立了各因素的权重系数,构建了吉林省重大暴雨过程灾害损失风险评估模型.利用过程预报降雨量对2013年8月14-17日的重大暴雨过程灾害损失风险进行了预评估.结果表明：重大暴雨过程灾害损失综合风险的高值区分布在四平、辽源大部以及长春、吉林、通化城区附近,风险偏高区位于中南部,西部地区和东北部地区为中低风险区.灾害损失风险评估模型预评估效果良好,可在实际的暴雨过程灾害损失风险预评估业务中使用,由于通过该模型的评估结果可迅速圈定各级洪涝风险区,对提高重大暴雨过程应对能力、减少灾害损失以及防灾减灾意义重大.     

区域洪水资源利用综合风险评价

鉴于水库、蓄滞洪区以及河渠槽蓄等区域洪水资源利用方式及其防洪风险产生方面的特征,针对形成区域洪水资源利用风险的各子区及各利用措施的风险项,采用风险等级与风险度相综合的方法加以评估.依据子区和利用措施风险项与区域洪水资源利用总风险的结构关系,运用模糊评价原理和层次分析法,建立了基于风险评价模糊特征的区域洪水资源利用综合风险评价的层次结构模型,并阐述了模型的结构及其求解步骤,给出了风险等级与风险度的模糊合成计算方法以及各风险项考虑主客观因素的权重确定方法.以海河流域北三河水系的洪水资源利用风险分析为例,计算了该区域洪水资源利用的综合风险值.     

预应力锚索的预应力损失机理研究

预应力锚索结构的预应力损失问题是造成锚索失效的关键问题。在具体分析影响预应力损失的各种因素的基础上,给出了各因素导致预应力损失的具体计算方法。特别对长期荷载下预应力损失机理进行了分析,其中钢绞线采用松弛模型;围岩体采用流变模型;灌浆材料采用蠕变模型进行预测。并给出了相应的理论计算公式,为预应力锚索设计、施工以及工后管理等提供了理论依据。     

考虑预应力损失桩-锚结构内力计算的加权残值法

针对已有锚索抗滑桩计算模型的不足,按锚索抗滑桩实际的受力过程,考虑了施工阶段锚索预应力的损失及桩体位移对桩锚协调方程的影响,分别在预应力施加和滑坡推力作用阶段建立计算模型,并基于加权残值法建立了锚索抗滑桩的内力与变形计算方法。同时,基于Matlab平台编制了锚索抗滑桩的计算程序,将该程序对已有的工程实例进行分析,并与现有的桩锚计算模型进行对比,结果表明,该模型能很好地体现锚索抗滑桩在预应力施加阶段主动受力这一特殊过程对桩锚位移协调方程的影响,且能考虑下排锚索施工对上排锚索造成的预应力损失;而且与现有的计算模型相比,本模型更加符合工程实际。     

大型地下洞室群围岩应力-损伤-渗流耦合分析

以渗透体力来考虑渗流场的力学效应,建立了应力-损伤-渗透系数关系方程来考虑应力和损伤对渗流场的影响,结合岩体结构的三维弹塑性损伤有限元分析,建立了大型地下洞室开挖围岩应力-损伤-渗流耦合的计算模型。该计算模型求解的难度主要体现在岩体材料弹塑性、损伤、渗流自由面边界、渗流溢出边界、应力-损伤-渗流相互影响关系等。提出分步迭代法对以上因素进行归纳后按一定顺序分别进行迭代求解,取得了良好的计算效果。将该方法应用于某水电站大型地下洞室群分析,得出了一系列有意义的结论。     

预应力锚索锚固力损失与岩土体蠕变耦合效应研究

因预应力锚索锚固力损失而导致锚固失效的工程事故屡屡发生,锚索锚固力损失与岩土体蠕变之间存在复杂的耦合效应关系,建立二者之间的耦合效应模型,确立二者之间的计算关系式,为预应力锚固工程的设计、施工、安全运行管理以及锚固力损失的控制与补偿技术提供理论基础和技术手段。通过理论分析和模型研究,在岩土体常用流变模型基础上建立了基于应变相等的耦合效应计算模型,并进行了模型验证。研究结论：（1）建立了与工程实际相符合的锚索锚固力变化和岩土体蠕变的耦合效应计算模型,正确反映了预应力锚索锚固力损失和岩土体蠕变之间的关系,推导出了其本构方程、松弛方程和蠕变方程,从理论上解决了锚固力变化与岩土体蠕变之间的计算关系。（2）通过耦合效应计算模型的蠕变方程,在材料参数已知的情况下,可以计算出边坡蠕变影响引起的锚索锚固力损失量,并结合实际工程中监测到的锚索应力数据进行对比分析,就能够准确地了解、评价锚索锚固力的异常变化情况,指导实际工程中的设计和施工,保证工程建设过程中的安全性。（3）通过耦合效应计算模型的松弛方程,可以对预应力锚索受力状态的监测数据进行分析整理,通过对锚索锚固力损失量的数据进行反分析,分析岩土体的蠕变参数,根据蠕变介质的材料特性,计算岩土体蠕变量,根据蠕变量判断预应力锚索锚固工程的安全性和可靠性,指导锚固工程的安全运行管理。     

泥石流灾害损失评价

泥石流灾害损失评价是对已经发生的泥百流灾害所造成的损失进行综合性的测算和统计。它是泥石流灾害评价的重要内容之一。一次泥石流灾害，除了直接造成人员伤亡和财产损失外，还可能伴有潜在的间接影响。此外，时间和空间分布状况的不同也增加了评价的难度。所以，泥石流灾害损失评价是一项复杂的工作。灾害损失的严重程度需要通过适当的指标来反映。根据承灾体特点，文章初步建立了泥石流灾害损失评价指标，分别为人员损失、经济损失和救灾投入费用，并且对于每个指标给定了相应的计算方法。人员损失主要由因灾死亡损失和因灾伤害损失两部分构成；经济损失包括直接经济损失和间接经济损失。直接经济损失集在在建筑、资产、交通、管线、资源5个方面，间接经济损失则通过与直接经；声损失的比例关系来进行换算；救灾投入费用是灾害发生后进行救援、治理、恢复等所花费的费用。最终的灾害总损失等于上述3部分损失之和。在此基础上，综合时间和地域因素，提出了灾害损失的时空比较方法，从而增加了评价的科学性和合理性。泥石流灾害损失评价为定量反映灾情、进行泥石流救灾优先性工作提供了依据。     

Default risk-based probabilistic decision model for risk management and control

This study describes how risk-based risk control allocation models work. We begin by discussing the economic rationale for allocating risk control in a diversified organization such as an enterprise. For a probability model for risk control decision making under uncertainty and risk, we propose a model involving stochastic total loss amount constraints with respect to various tolerable default levels. Our main objective is to develop a method that will allow shaping of the risk associated with risk control outcomes. The direct and indirect losses caused by simulated disasters can be estimated using an engineering and financial analysis model. Based on this model, we can generate an exceeding probability curve and then calculate how much of the loss can be eliminated or transferred to other entities should funds be allocated to risk control. The optimal natural disaster risk control arrangement with a probabilistic formulation is explained in this paper. Results from the proposed formulations are compared in case studies. The model attempts to apply risk-based budget guidelines to risk reduction measurement within a portfolio-based risk framework.     

Earthquake risk assessment and optimal risk management strategies for Hi-Tech Fabs in Taiwan

In this paper, we build an event-based seismic hazard assessment and financial analysis model for Hi-Tech Fabs in Taiwan. As we know, the low occurrence rate, tremendous loss and high uncertainty are characteristics of earthquake disasters. To handle the above issues, the model integrates knowledge from many fields including earth science, seismology, geology, risk management, structural engineering, the insurance profession, financial engineering and facility management. The portfolio of data from the site survey indicates that the model can be used to calculate the event losses (including buildings, contents and business interruption losses); furthermore the average annual loss and loss exceeding probabilities also can be calculated. The total earthquake risk cost, which includes earthquake insurance premiums, average annual retained loss and equivalent annual retrofit cost, is defined as an indicator for selection of optimal risk management strategies.     

Research on the Evolution Law of Spatial Structure of Overlying Strata and Evaluation of Rock Burst Risks in Deep Well Strip Mining

Strip mining in mines is one of the main mining methods to control surface subsidence and protect the ecological environment. In recent years, strip mining has induced frequent rock burst accidents due to the increase in mining intensity and mining depth. Based on two typical deep strip mining accidents, the characteristics of the changes in spatial structure of the overlying strata caused by strip mining are studied, and the influencing factors of the occurrence of strip mining rock burst are analyzed. A support pressure calculation model is proposed, and estimated and verified in a mine after an analysis of the change law of the overlying strata structure in strip mining and research on the distribution and evolution law of support pressure. Based the above research, a risk evaluation model of the strip mining face is proposed based on the possibility index method, the 4203 working face of a mine is evaluated. Compared with the numerical simulation results, this method is well consistent with the theoretical calculation model. It can be seen that this method has strong practicability and is of great significance for studying the rock burst characteristics of coal seams in strip mining and evaluating the risk of rock burst of coal seams.

     

构造侧向挤压与砂岩成岩压实作用--以塔里木盆地为例

从塔里木盆地库车坳陷下侏罗统和西南坳陷白垩系的构造样式、古构造应力值与砂岩成岩压实作用之间相互关系的研究 ,明确提出了构造侧向挤压对砂岩成岩压实有重要的影响 ,它造成的压实减孔量可以是砂岩总压实减孔量的 2 .5 %～ 2 3.6 %。库车坳陷克孜勒努尔 -乌恰沟地区为断层转折褶皱 ,其南翼为高构造应力带、变形强烈 ,它引起的构造挤压减孔量为 5 .6 %～ 6 .6 % ,占总压实减孔量的 17.6 %～ 2 3.6 % ;而吐格尔明地区为断层传播褶皱 ,其南翼的构造变形较弱 ,构造挤压减孔量仅 1.9%～ 2 .1%。西南坳陷七美干地区位于逆冲推覆构造带的中带 ,构造挤压减孔量为 4.9% ,占总压实减孔量的 17.6 % ;而位于前锋带的同由路克地区受构造侧向挤压作用的影响很小。     

生态建设政策交易成本及其结构的比较

将交易成本分析引入沙漠化地区生态建设政策分析过程, 确定交易成本由搜寻信息成本、签订合约成本、建设及营运成本、监督对方是否违约成本、违约后寻求赔偿成本共5部分构成. 每个部分根据研究区域生态政策实施的关键节点进行指标分解, 设计政策交易成本分析的21个指标. 为了将不同生态政策之间的绩效进行对比, 构造了交易成本结构指数, 它由内生交易成本占总交易成本的比重、农户投入占生态建设项目生产成本的比重、交易成本占生态建设项目交易成本与生产成本之和的比重共3个指标构成. 根据在宁夏盐池县的调研数据, 测算退耕还林政策和天然林保护政策的交易成本分别为640.87元·hm^-2·a^-1和41.49元·hm^-2·a^-1, 交易成本结构指数值分别为0.1242和0.2292, 实施效果分别是很好和较好;"三北"防护林政策的交易成本为806.08元·hm^-2·a^-1, 交易成本结构指数值为0.4149, 实施效果一般;草地禁牧政策的交易成本为530.45元·hm^-2·a^-1, 交易成本结构指数值为0.8575, 实施效果很差. 生态政策的交易成本及其结构分析, 将为不同生态建设政策的比较和绩效评价提供一个新的角度, 具有重要意义.     

基于变形的土石坝地震风险分析

土石坝抗震安全的设计一般立足于预防结构的倒塌,如何使土石坝结构地震破损控制在可接受的风险水平是一个值得研究的重要课题。应用地震风险分析理论,建立了土石坝地震风险分析方法,包括地震危险性分析、地震易损性分析和地震灾害损失评估3个方面。在场地地震危险性分析基础上,将基于性能的抗震设计思想应用于土石坝结构地震易损性分析中,以土石坝坝顶相对沉陷为评价指标,划分土石坝震损等级,最后结合地震经济损失分析,建立了土石坝地震风险计算模型,在技术和经济上对土石坝地震破损风险进行分析计算。以某高土石坝为例,用该模型对大坝的震害和经济损失进行了预测分析,其结论可为土石坝安全评价及投资决策等提供依据。     

The Role of Uncertainty on Alternative Disaster Management Strategies

The work presented in this paper is an outgrowth of a multi—year study at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania on Managing Catastrophic Risks. We focus on the role of homeowners and insurance companies in managing the hazard from earthquake risk. Specifically, we consider alternative earthquake disaster management strategies for a typical homeowner and a small insurance company in the Oakland, California region. These strategies involve the adoption of mitigation measures and the purchase of earthquake insurance by the homeowner and the purchase of an indemnity contract (e.g., excess—of—loss reinsurance) by the insurer.

We focus on how uncertainty impacts these disaster management strategies. Specifically, we illustrate the impact of structural mitigation and risk—transfer mechanisms on the insurer's performance when there is uncertainty in the company's risk profile. This risk profile is captured through a loss exceedance probability (EP) curve, representing the probability that a certain level of monetary loss will be exceeded on an annual basis. Parameters considered in the sensitivity analysis that will shift the loss EP curve include: earthquake recurrence, ground motion attenuation, soil mapping schemes, and the exposure and vulnerability of the residential structures. The paper demonstrates how uncertainty in these parameters impacts the cost effectiveness of mitigation and reinsurance on the insurer's profitability and chances of insolvency, as well as the number of policies the insurer is willing to issue.     

Financially Efficient Ore Selections Incorporating Grade Uncertainty

Traditional mining selection methods focus on local estimates or loss functions that do not take into account the potential diversification benefits of financial risk that is unique to each location. A constrained efficient set model with a downside risk function is formulated as a solution. Estimates of this nonlinear mixed-integer combinatorial optimization problem are provided by a simulated annealing heuristic. A utility framework that is congruent with the proposed efficiency model is then used to choose the optimal set of local mining selections for a decision-maker with specific risk-averse characteristics. The methodology is demonstrated in a grade control environment. The results show that downside financial risk can be reduced by around 33% while the expected payoff is only reduced by 1% when compared to ore selections generated by traditional cut-off grade techniques.     

Probabilistic flood risk analysis considering morphological dynamics and dike failure

A comprehensive flood risk assessment should aim not only at quantifying uncertainties but also the variability of risk over time. In this study, an efficient modelling framework was proposed to perform probabilistic hazard and risk analysis in dike-protected river systems accounting for morphological variability and uncertainty. The modelling framework combined the use of: (1) continuous synthetic discharge forcing, (2) a stochastic dike breach model dynamically coupled to a stochastic unsteady one-dimensional hydraulic model (MIKE1D) describing river flows, (3) a catalogue of pre-run probabilistic inundation maps (MIKE SHE) and (4) a damage and loss model (CAPRA). The methodology was applied using continuous simulations to a 45-km reach of the Upper Koshi River, Nepal, to investigate the changes in breach and flood hazards and subsequent risks after 2 and 5 years of probable river bed aggradation. The study results indicated an increase in annual average loss of 4% per year driven by changes in loss distribution in the most frequent loss return periods (20–500 years). The use of continuous simulations and dike breach model also provided a more robust estimation of risk metrics as compared to traditional binary treatment of flood defence and/or the direct association of flow with loss return periods. The results were helpful to illustrate the potential impacts of dynamic river morphology, dike failure and continuous simulation and their significance when devising flood risk study methodologies.     

基于滑坡风险评价的卡拉水电站坝址比选研究

以雅砻江卡拉水电站为例,针对滑坡群风险在水电工程坝址比选时的量化评价问题,在考虑滑坡体危险性分析和易损性分析的基础上,引入滑坡体工程影响系数、重要性系数、距离模数、滑坡体状况系数4个指标参数,综合考虑滑坡体客观情况与人类活动的影响,建立以年期望损失为指标的水电工程滑坡风险评价体系。在以坝址安全风险指标、堵江引起发电量损失指标与清淤损失指标和涌浪破坏损失指标为标准的综合评价方法中,运用安全与经济相平衡原则,得出基于滑坡风险评价的坝址比选结果。经实例计算,采用改进后的评价方法可得同一量纲下的计算分析比常规方法更具可比性,综合考虑可为坝址比选提供依据。