水利水保措施对潮河流域年径流量的影响——基于经验统计模型的评估

利用时间序列对比法分析了1961-2005 年潮河流域降水、径流、用水量、水利工程、 水土保持措施变化。结果表明: (1) 自20 世纪60 年代以来, 潮河流域年平均面雨量略有减 少, 但流域年径流量却呈明显减少趋势, 1991-2000 年的流域年径流量平均值为1961-1970 年 的90.9%, 减少幅度较大; (2) 潮河流域径流量的变化主要与水利水保等人类活动有关。利用 降水-径流经验统计模型评估了流域水利水保措施对年径流量的影响程度: 1981-1990 年、 1991-2000 年、2001-2005 年、1981-2005 年, 受水利水保措施影响所产生的年均减水量分别 为1.15、0.28、1.10、0.79 亿m³, 水利水保措施减水效应分别为31.99%、7.13%、40.71%、 23.79%。水利水保措施对枯水时段的减水效应更为突出。     

1944-2005年黑河流域径流量变化特征及趋势(英文)

The Heihe River drainage basin is one of the endangered ecological regions of China. The shortage of water resources is the bottleneck,which constrains the sustainable development of the region. Many scholars in China have done researches concerning this problem. Based on previous researches,this paper analyzed characteristics,tendencies,and causes of annual runoff variations in the Yingluo Gorge (1944-2005) and the Zhengyi Gorge (1954-2005),which are the boundaries of the upper reaches,the middle reaches,and the lower reaches of the Heihe River drainage basin,by wavelet analysis,wavelet neural network model,and GIS spatial analysis. The results show that: (1) annual runoff variations of the Yingluo Gorge have principal periods of 7 years and 25 years,and its increasing rate is 1.04 m3/s·10y; (2) annual runoff variations of the Zhengyi Gorge have principal periods of 6 years and 27 years,and its decreasing rate is 2.25 m3/s·10y; (3) prediction results show that: during 2006-2015,annual runoff variations of the Yingluo and Zhengyi gorges have ascending tendencies,and the increasing rates are respectively 2.04 m3/s·10y and 1.61 m3/s·10y; (4) the increase of annual runoff in the Yingluo Gorge has causal relationship with increased temperature and precipitation in the upper reaches,and the decrease of annual runoff in the Zhengyi Gorge in the past decades was mainly caused by the increased human consumption of water resources in the middle researches. The study results will provide scientific basis for making rational use and allocation schemes of water resources in the Heihe River drainage basin.     

雅鲁藏布江流域1961-2005年气候变化趋势

The Yarlung Zangbo River (YR) is the highest great river in the world, and its basin is one of the centers of human economic activity in Tibet. Using 10 meteorological stations over the YR basin in 1961–2005, the spatial and temporal characteristics of temperature and precipitation as well as potential evapotranspiration are analyzed. The results are as follows. (1) The annual and four seasonal mean air temperature shows statistically significant increasing trend, the tendency is more significant in winter and fall. The warming in Lhasa river basin is most significant. (2) The precipitation is decreasing from the 1960s to the 1980s and increasing since the 1980s. From 1961 to 2005, the annual and four seasonal mean precipitation is increasing but not statistically significant, especially in fall and spring. The increasing precipitation rates are more pronounced in Niyangqu and Palong Zangbo river basins, the closer to the upper YR is, the less precipitation increasing rate would be. (3) The annual and four seasonal mean potential evapotranspiration has decreased, especially after the 1980s, and most of it happens in winter and spring. The decreasing trend is most significant in the middle YR and Nianchu river basin. (4) Compared with the Mt. Qomolangma region, Tibetan Plateau, China and global average, the magnitudes of warming trend over the YR basin since the 1970s exceed those areas in the same period, and compared with the Tibetan Plateau, the magnitudes of precipitation increasing and potential evapotranspiration decreasing are larger, suggesting that the YR basin is one of the most sensitive areas to global warming.     

近45年来降水变化和人类活动对潮河流域年径流量的影响

近45a来,随着流域降水量减少,以及修建水利工程、引水、实施水土保持等人类活动的增加,潮河流域年径流量呈明显减少趋势。利用降水-径流经验统计模型,定量评估了潮河流域降水变化与人类活动对流域年径流量的影响程度。结果表明:1981~1990、1991~2000、2001~2005、1981~2005年,受人类活动影响所产生的年均减水量分别为1.32、0.67、1.46、1.09×10⁸m³,占相应时段总减水量的95.1%,98.9%,60.7%和83.2%;受降水变化影响所产生的年均减水量分别为0.07、0.01、0.95、0.22×10⁸m³,占相应时段总减水量的4.9%,1.1%,39.3%和16.8%。人类活动因素的贡献率远大于降水因素。     

1944-2005年黑河流域径流量变化特征及趋势

The Heihe River drainage basin is one of the endangered ecological regions of China. The shortage of water resources is the bottleneck, which constrains the sustainable development of the region. Many scholars in China have done researches concerning this problem. Based on previous researches, this paper analyzed characteristics, tendencies, and causes of annual runoff variations in the Yingluo Gorge （1944-2005） and the Zhengyi Gorge （1954-2005）, which are the boundaries of the upper reaches, the middle reaches, and the lower reaches of the Heihe River drainage basin, by wavelet analysis, wavelet neural network model, and GIS spatial analysis. The results show that： （1） annual runoff variations of the Yingluo Gorge have principal periods of 7 years and 25 years, and its increasing rate is 1.04 m^3/s.10y; （2） annual runoff variations of the Zhengyi Gorge have principal periods of 6 years and 27 years, and its decreasing rate is 2.25 m^3/s.10y; （3） prediction results show that： during 2006-2015, annual runoff variations of the Yingluo and Zhengyi gorges have ascending tendencies, and the increasing rates are respectively 2.04 m^3/s.10y and 1.61 m^3/s.10y; （4） the increase of annual runoff in the Yingluo Gorge has causal relationship with increased temperature and precipitation in the upper reaches, and the decrease of annual runoff in the Zhengyi Gorge in the past decades was mainly caused by the increased human consumption of water resources in the middle researches. The study results will provide scientific basis for making rational use and allocation schemes of water resources in the Heihe River drainage basin.     

皇甫川流域降水量和人类活动对径流量变化影响的定量评估(英文)

The runoff of some rivers in the world especially in the arid and semi-arid areas has decreased remarkably with global or regional climate change and enhanced human activities.The runoff decrease in the arid and semi-arid areas of northern China has brought severe problems in livelihoods and ecology.To reveal the variation characteristics,trends of runoff and their influencing factors have been important scientific issues for drainage basin management.The objective of this study was to analyze the variation trends of the runoff and quantitatively assess the contributions of precipitation and human activities to the runoff change in the Huangfuchuan River Basin based on the measured data in 1960-2008.Two inflection points(turning years) of 1979 and 1998 for the accumulative runoff change,and one inflection point of 1979 for the accumulative precipitation change were identified using the methods of accumulative anomaly analysis.The linear relationships between year and accumulative runoff in 1960-1979,1980-1997 and 1998-2008 and between year and accumulative precipitation in 1960-1979 and 1980-2008 were fitted.A new method of slope change ratio of accumulative quantity(SCRAQ) was put forward and used in this study to calculate the contributions of different factors to the runoff change.Taking 1960-1979 as the base period,the contribution rate of the precipitation and human activities to the decreased runoff was 36.43% and 63.57% in 1980-1997,and 16.81% and 83.19% in 1998-2008,respectively.The results will play an important role in the drainage basin management.Moreover,the new method of SCRAQ can be applied in the quantitative evaluation of runoff change and impacts by different factors in the river basin of arid and semi-arid areas.     

三江源地区1961-2010年降水时空变化(英文)

Based on a monthly dataset of precipitation time series (1961-2010) from 12 meteorological stations across the Three-River Headwater Region (THRHR) of Qinghai Province, China, the spatio-temporal variation and abrupt change analysis of precipitation were examined by using moving average, linear regression, spline interpolation, the Mann-Kendall test and so on. Major conclusions were as follows. (1) The long-term annual and seasonal precipitation in the study area indicated an increasing trend with some oscillations during 1961-2010; however, the summer precipitation in the Lantsang (Lancang) River Headwater Region (LARHR), and the autumn precipitation in the Yangtze River Headwater Region (YERHR) of the THRHR decreased in the same period. (2) The amount of annual precipitation in the THRHR and its three sub-headwater regions was greater in the 1980s and 2000s. The springs were fairly wet after the 1970s, while the summers were relatively wet in the 1960s, 1980s and 2000s. In addition, the amount of precipitation in the autumn was greater in the 1970s and 1980s, but it was relatively less for the winter precipitation, except in the 1990s. (3) The normal values of spring, summer, winter and annual precipitation in the THRHR and its three sub-headwater regions all increased, but the normal value of summer precipitation in the LARHR had a negative trend and the normal value of winter precipitation declined in general. (4) The spring and winter precipitation increased in most of the THRHR. The summer, autumn and annual precipitation increased mainly in the marginal area of the west and north and decreased in the regions of Yushu, Zaduo, Jiuzhi and Banma. (5) The spring and winter precipitation in the THRHR and its three sub-headwater regions showed an abrupt change, except for the spring precipitation in the YARHR. The abrupt changes of spring precipitation were mainly in the late 1980s and early 1990s, while the abrupt changes of winter precipitation were primary in the mid-to late 1970s. This research would be helpful for further understanding the trends and periodicity of precipitation and for watershed-based water resource management in the THRHR.     

石羊河流域1961-2005年蒸发皿蒸发量变化趋势及原因初探

 利用1961—2005年石羊河流域上、中、下游当地气象站的逐月20 cm口径蒸发皿蒸发量、平均气温、平均相对湿度、降水量、平均风速、日照时数、最高气温和最低气温资料,研究了近45 a石羊河流域蒸发皿蒸发量变化趋势及原因。结果表明,45 a来,石羊河流域及上、下游年蒸发皿蒸发量呈上升趋势,中游年蒸发皿蒸发量呈下降趋势,上游上升趋势最明显。四季中,春、秋、冬季蒸发皿蒸发量呈上升趋势,上升最明显的是冬季,其次为秋季,春季变化不明显,夏季蒸发皿蒸发量变化呈下降趋势。石羊河流域在不同时段不同区域年蒸发皿蒸发量都存在明显的6～7 a周期和1～2 a的短周期,并都发生了突变。相关系数法分析表明,影响石羊河流域及中、下游年蒸发皿蒸发量变化的主要影响因子是相对湿度和降水,上游的主要影响因子是相对湿度和气温。四季中,春季的主要影响因子是相对湿度和降水;夏季影响石羊河流域及上、中蒸发皿蒸发量变化的主要因子是相对湿度和气温,下游的主要影响因子是相对湿度和降水;秋季影响石羊河流域及中、下游蒸发皿蒸发量变化的主要影响因子是相对湿度和气温日较差,上游其主要影响因子是相对湿度和降水;冬季的主要影响因子是气温和相对湿度。影响年以及春、夏、秋最显著的因子是相对湿度,冬季最显著的影响因子是气温。     

西北地区山区融雪期气候变化对径流量的影响(英文)

Water resources in the arid land of Northwest China mainly derive from snow and glacier melt water in mountainous areas. So the study on onset, cessation, length, tempera-ture and precipitation of snowmelt period is of great significance for allocating limited water resources reasonably and taking scientific water resources management measures. Using daily mean temperature and precipitation from 8 mountainous weather stations over the pe-riod 1960?2010 in the arid land of Northwest China, this paper analyzes climate change of snowmelt period and its spatial variations and explores the sensitivity of runoff to length, temperature and precipitation of snowmelt period. The results show that mean onset of snowmelt period has shifted 15.33 days earlier while mean ending date has moved 9.19 days later. Onset of snowmelt period in southern Tianshan Mountains moved 20.01 days earlier while that in northern Qilian Mountains moved only 10.16 days earlier. Mean precipitation and air temperature increased by 47.3 mm and 0.857℃ in the mountainous areas of Northwest China, respectively. The precipitation of snowmelt period increased the fastest, which is ob-served in southern Tianshan Mountains, up to 65 mm, and the precipitation and temperature in northern Kunlun Mountains increased the slowest, an increase of 25 mm and 0.617℃, respectively, while the temperature in northern Qilian Mountains increased the fastest, in-creasing by 1.05℃. The annual runoff is also sensitive to the variations of precipitation and temperature of snowmelt period, because variation of precipitation induces annual runoff change by 7.69% while change of snowmelt period temperature results in annual runoff change by 14.15%.     

60年来黄河流域径流量时空变化(英文)

Water discharge data of the Yellow River over the past 60 years was analyzed using the continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and Mann-Kendall (MK) test methods to identify spatial and temporal variation patterns. Potential connections between water discharge in the Yellow River Basin and El Ni o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) were also examined by the cross wavelet and wavelet coherence methods. CWT results show that the periodic oscillations in water discharges had occurred at the temporal scales of 1-, 2to 4-, 6to 8and 10to 22-year. It was also found that at the annual timescale (1-year) the phase relations between water discharge and ENSO were indistinct probably due to the strong influence by human disturbances. However, over the longer time scales, the phase relation becomes much clearer with an anti-phase relation being found mainly at inter-annual scale (2to 8-year) and in-phase relation at decadal scale (16to 22-year). According to the MK test results water discharge at most stations except Tangnaihai have decreased significantly and the abrupt change occurred in the mid-1980s or the early 1990s. The changes in water discharge were found to be influenced by both climate changes and human activities. Before 1970 the change in water discharge was positively related to precipitation variations in the river basin, but after 1970 the decrease in water discharge has been largely caused by various human activities including constructions of reservoirs, water abstraction and water-soil conservation with water abstraction being the main cause.     

Impacts of water conservancy and soil conservation measures on annual runoff in the Chaohe River Basin during 1961–2005

Taking the Chaohe River Basin above the Miyun Reservoir in North China as a study area, the characteristics and variation trends of annual runoff and annual precipitation during 1961–2005 were analyzed applying Mann-Kendall test method on the basis of the hydrologic data of the major hydrological station (Xiahui Station) located at the outlet of the drainage basin and the meteorological data of 17 rainfall stations. Human activities including water conservancy projects construction and water diversion as well as implementation of soil and water conservation from 1961 to 2005 were carefully studied using time series contrasting method. The referenced period (1961–1980) that influenced slightly by human activities and the compared period (1981–2005) that influenced significantly by water conservancy and soil conservation measures were identified according to the runoff variation process analysis and abrupt change points detection during 1961–2005 applying double accumulative curve method, mean shift t-test method and Mann-Kendall mutation test technique. Based on the establishment of a rainfall-runoff empirical statistical model, impacts and the runoff-reducing effects of water conservancy and soil conservation measures on runoff reduction were evaluated quantitatively. The major results could be summarized as follows: (1) The annual precipitation in the drainage basin tends to decrease while the runoff has declined markedly since the 1960s, the average annual runoff from 1991 to 2000 was only 90.9% in proportion to that from 1961 to 1970. (2) The annual runoff variations in the drainage basin are significantly related to human activities. (3) During 1981–1990, 1991–2000, 2001–2005 and 1981–2005, the average annual runoff reduction amounts were 1.15×108, 0.28×108, 1.10×108 and 0.79×108 m3 respectively and the average annual runoff-reducing effects were 31.99%, 7.13%, 40.71% and 23.79% accordingly. Runoff-reducing effects by water conservancy and soil conservation measures are more prominent in the low water period.     

Impacts of water conservancy and soil conservation measures on annual runoff in the Chaohe River Basin during 1961–2005

Taking the Chaohe River Basin above the Miyun Reservoir in North China as a study area, the characteristics and variation trends of annual runoff and annual precipitation during 1961–2005 were analyzed applying Mann-Kendall test method on the basis of the hydrologic data of the major hydrological station (Xiahui Station) located at the outlet of the drainage basin and the meteorological data of 17 rainfall stations. Human activities including water conservancy projects construction and water diversion as well as implementation of soil and water conservation from 1961 to 2005 were carefully studied using time series contrasting method. The referenced period (1961–1980) that influenced slightly by human activities and the compared period (1981–2005) that influenced significantly by water conservancy and soil conservation measures were identified according to the runoff variation process analysis and abrupt change points detection during 1961–2005 applying double accumulative curve method, mean shift t-test method and Mann-Kendall mutation test technique. Based on the establishment of a rainfall-runoff empirical statistical model, impacts and the runoff-reducing effects of water conservancy and soil conservation measures on runoff reduction were evaluated quantitatively. The major results could be summarized as follows: (1) The annual precipitation in the drainage basin tends to decrease while the runoff has declined markedly since the 1960s, the average annual runoff from 1991 to 2000 was only 90.9% in proportion to that from 1961 to 1970. (2) The annual runoff variations in the drainage basin are significantly related to human activities. (3) During 1981–1990, 1991–2000, 2001–2005 and 1981–2005, the average annual runoff reduction amounts were 1.15×10⁸, 0.28×10⁸, 1.10×10⁸ and 0.79×10⁸ m³ respectively and the average annual runoff-reducing effects were 31.99%, 7.13%, 40.71% and 23.79% accordingly. Runoff-reducing effects by water conservancy and soil conservation measures are more prominent in the low water period.     

潮河流域降水-径流关系变化及驱动因子识别

基于1973-2010年长系列日降水、径流数据,利用降水径流双累积曲线、M-K统计检验和降水集中度等方法,结合HIMS模型模拟结果,分析了潮河流域降水-径流关系的变化及其原因。得到的主要结论如下：（1）近38年来,潮河流域降水变化较小,但径流下降趋势显著,降水-径流关系发生了两次突变,即在1973-1983年、1984-1998年和1999-2010年三个阶段降水-径流关系存在明显差异;（2）大雨日降水总和（P_≥20）与径流深关系较为密切,其变化是导致降水-径流关系在1983年发生突变的主要驱动因子;（3）HIMS模型模拟结果显示,1999-2010年潮河流域下垫面条件较前两阶段变化明显,人类活动引起的减水效应由第二阶段的14.93%增加至第三阶段的25.78%,人类活动是导致降水-径流关系在1998年发生突变的主要驱动因子。     

黄河中游多沙粗沙区流域坡面水保措施变化特征

选用Landsat TM、环境星CCD、SPOT4 和资源三号卫星影像等多源地学数据,通过人机交互式解译和修订土地利用与梯田数据,提出用相邻图幅递进回归分析法消除NDVI时相差异后反演植被盖度,构建起退耕还林还草面积比例、植被盖度均值变化量和有效梯田累计保存面积比例3 个坡面特征变化指示参数后,运用综合聚类分析和多要素贡献率模型研究黄河中游多沙粗沙区的流域坡面水保措施变化特征。结果表明：（1） 1998-2010 年间研究区内流域坡面水保措施变化显著,平均退耕还林还草面积比例为5.55%,平均林草植被盖度均值增加20.63%,平均有效梯田累计保存面积比例达6.25%;（2） 多要素水保措施变化共同作用下的流域坡面变化特征主要有7 种类型,即植被盖度变化主导型、植被—土地变化主导型、土地—植被变化主导型、植被—梯田变化主导型、梯田—植被变化主导型、梯田面积变化主导型和多要素变化共同主导型;（3） 不同类型的空间分布存在一定的地貌背景差异,后续研究应结合流域坡面变化特征及其地貌格局来优化配置水保措施,并合理估计水沙模型模拟的敏感性参数。     

半干旱区降水和水土保持措施强度-径流演变规律研究

为研究不同时期及水土保持措施条件下,降水量、水土保持措施强度与径流的演变规律,运用泰森多边形法、Morlet小波分析法、回归分析法,构建多元功效函数,进行甘肃省定西市安定区近60 a年降水量、措施强度与径流演变研究。结果表明:1957—2016年年径流量呈递减趋势,达极显著水平(P<0.001);在22～24 a、8 a、4 a时间尺度上,年降水量和径流具有明显的震荡周期,平均周期为15 a、5 a、3 a左右。梯田、造林、种草及封育等水土保持措施强度逐年递增,分别达36.14hm²·km^-2、25.26 hm²·km^-2、11.56 hm²·km^-2和3.22 hm²·km^-2。随周期(3 a、5 a、15 a)的变长,同等降水量对产流量影响有所增大;同等水土保持措施强度对产流量影响有所减小;降水量和措施强度组合解释了径流模数总方差的57.46%～85.80%;降水量对径流模数的影响约低于40%,措施强度...     

祖厉河流域降雨径流泥沙变化特征研究

祖厉河流域位于年降水量200～400 mm之间过渡带,是气候变化最敏感和最为复杂的区域之一。运用祖厉河流域1955-2013年径流量、输沙量与年降雨量的变化趋势、时段特征进行了分析。结果表明：祖厉河流域降雨量、径流量和输沙量存在年际变化大、逐年减小的变化趋势;年降雨量在1995年出现突变点,降雨量存在明显的丰水和枯水变化,丰水时段（1955-1989年）年降水量为376.2 mm,枯水时段（1990-2013年）年降水量为224.9 mm;径流量和泥沙量的突变点分别出现在1995年和2000年;依据UF_k值信度变化趋势,将径流量、输沙量变化分为非显著减少（1955-1971年）、显著减少（1972-1985年）、较显著减少（1986-2000年）和极显著减少（2001-2013年）四个时期。     

1959-2008年淮河流域极端径流的强度和频率特征

基于淮河中上游主干流两侧13个水文站点1959-2008年逐日径流量的年最大值序列和超门限峰值序列,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、21种分布函数和Pearson III分布,分析淮河流域极端径流的强度和频率特征。结果表明：① 极端径流强度6个站点呈增加趋势,7个呈减少趋势;极端径流发生频率8个站点呈增加趋势,5个呈减少趋势。② 极端径流在径流值上的频率分布,年最大值序列总体较服从Weibull分布,而非普遍采用的广义极值分布;超门限峰值序列总体仍较服从广义帕累托分布。③ 基于超门限峰值序列和广义帕累托分布估算的50年一遇的极端径流值精度最高,大部分地区误差率低于0.2,精度优于工程标准Pearson III分布。气候变化背景下,极端径流频率特征发生变化,流域上游地区工程标准可能需要调整。受函数形态影响,极值序列最优拟合函数估算精度不如广义极值分布和广义帕累托分布。     

塔里木河干流径流量变化与太阳黑子活动的关系

本文运用Morlet 小波分析方法, 分析了1957-2011 年塔里木河干流年径流量与太阳黑子相对数的关系。结果表明, 55 年间塔里木河干流年径流量和太阳黑子相对数都呈减小的趋势。塔里木河干流年径流量变化存在4 a、8 a、18 a、21 a 左右的主周期。在8~9 a 和18~21 a 尺度上年径流量序列与太阳黑子相对数序列具有相近的主周期。年径流量变化所表现的4 年主周期与太阳黑子活动关系不大;18~21 a 主周期特征应主要受太阳黑子活动的影响;8 a 主周期也与太阳黑子活动显著相关, 但由于受到人类活动的强烈干扰, 致使在20 世纪80 年代以后两者关系被扰乱。预测2012-2020 年间塔里木河干流将处于枯水期, 年径流量的平均值约为35×10⁸~40×10⁸ m³。