美丽中国建设——人地和谐共生理论与评估指标体系及应用

The Beautiful China Initiative(BCI)is a plan for the sustainable development of the Chinese nation as well as for China to fulfill the United Nations’2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.The Chinese government’s“five-in-one”approach provides strategic arrangements for developing the BCI,and President Xi Jinping proposed a timetable and“road map”for the BCI at the National Conference on Ecological and Environmental Protection.Nevertheless,the theoretical basis,evaluation index system,evaluation criteria and effectiveness of the BCI are currently unclear.This paper begins by exploring the basic content of the BCI from narrow and broad perspectives.It regards the theory of human-nature harmonious coexistence and the five-in-one beauty theory as the core theoretical bases of the BCI and constructs a five-element BCI evaluation index system(ecological environment,green development,social harmony,system perfection and cultural heritage)and utilizes the assessment method of the United Nations’Human Development Index to assess scientifically the effectiveness of the BCI in 341 prefecture-level cities.The results show the average BCI index(the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beauty Index)score to be 0.28,which is quite low,while the average scores for the individual element indexes of the ecological environment index,green development index,social harmony index,system perfection index and cultural heritage index are 0.6,0.22,0.29,0.22 and 0.07,respectively.All of these are relatively low values,with relatively large discrepancies in regional development,indicating that progress in the BCI is generally slow and unbalanced.To realize the BCI’s timetable and roadmap to a high quality and high standard,it is suggested that a common system for evaluating the progress of the BCI is developed and promulgated so that dynamic monitoring and phased evaluations can take place;BCI technical assessment standards are compiled and published;BCI comprehensive zoning is undertaken;pilot projects adapted to local conditions are launched in BCI sample areas;and BCI results are incorporated into performance indicators at all levels of government.     

Assessment and analysis of ecosystem services value along the Yangtze River under the background of the Yangtze River protection strategy

The Yangtze River is the third largest river in the world and the longest and largest river in China.China has adopted a national strategy to protect the Yangtze River.A better understanding of the ecosystem services value along the Yangtze River would provide support for the Yangtze River protection strategy.Using Costanza’s method to estimate the ecosystem services value,the value of 10 ecosystem services was estimated within 1 km and 2 km from the Yangtze River in 2017.These 10 services were derived from the four established groupings of provisioning,regulating,supporting,and cultural services.This study compared and analyzed the changes in the ecosystem services value in the upper,middle,and lower reaches of the river,and in provinces,cities,and villages along the Yangtze River.The total ecosystem services value within 1 km and 2 km from the river was 37.208 and 43.769 billion yuan,respectively.Within 1 km,the ecosystem services value in the middle reaches was 12.93 billion yuan,while the next highest value was in the upper reaches at 12.45 billion yuan,and the downstream area had the smallest value of 11.855 billion yuan.Within 2 km,the value of upstream ecosystem services was the highest at 16.31 billion yuan,while the second highest value was in the middle reaches at 14.376 billion yuan,and the smallest value was in the downstream area at 13.083 billion yuan.In the Yangtze River Basin,regulating services played a leading role,accounting for 81.6%and 78.9%of the ecosystem services value within 1 km and 2 km from the river,respectively.Among the 10 ecosystem services,hydrological regulation was the most important,while the value of raw material production made the smallest contribution.Among the provinces and cities along the Yangtze River,the highest ecosystem services value was in Hubei Province,while the lowest values were in Shanghai and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.If villages within 1 km and 2 km from the river were to be relocated,the total regional ecological value would increase by 527 and 975 million yuan,respectively.     

SCAR-COMMNAP南极数据管理联合委员会第11届大会在罗马召开

2007年9月3—8日,SCAR-COMMNAP南极数据管理联合委员会第11届大会(JCADM-11)在意大利罗马举行,来自荷兰、英国、美国、意大利、法国、南非、比利时、德国、新西兰、挪威、澳大利亚、阿根廷、马来西亚、韩国和中国等20个国家的代表出席了本次会议,GCMD(全球变化主目录)也派特约代表出席了会议,本次大会是历届会议中出席代表最多的一次。首先,JCADM主席回顾了过去一年所做的工作。取得的进展有:在数据管理方面,数据目录从2006年的3000余条增加到目前的4300多条;中国南北极数据中心在2006年—2007年7月期间向AMD(南极主目录)提交元…     

自然保护地旅游人地关系演进过程研究——以博格达为例

Protected areas have a double mandate of both "protection" and "use." Naturebased tourism is considered an effective tool in terms of environmental conservation. Understanding the causes and consequences of a spatiotemporal succession of tourism construction is an important channel to explore the changes of tourism-environment interaction in the protected area. To analyze the spatio-temporal variations in tourism construction lands, we adopted Mt. Bogda as an example. We systematically quantified the interaction between these changes and environmental variables and explored the evolution process of tourism-environment interaction of the mountainous protected area in the northwest arid region. Our results revealed the following:(1) In the Bogda protected area, the proportion of tourism construction lands first appeared to be increasing, then decreasing dramatically, and finally growing slowly. The spatial expansion of tourism construction lands followed the "core-periphery" pattern, respectively showing shapely infilling, reasonable agglomeration, barycenter shift, and outlying growth from 1990 to 2018 as the stages of concentrating on the core.(2) The higher land-use intensity of tourism construction drove the changes of landscape fragmentation, diversity, stability, primitive, and nature degree in the protected area. The coupling coordination between tourism and the environment in the Bogda area decreased at first, and then slowly increased. Meanwhile, tourism did not cause irreversible damage to the natural environment, and the coupling coordination degree between tourism and the environment was still in the state of balanced development. It expressed the states of original balanced, development exceeds environment and barely balanced, and superiorly balanced. The historical evolution of tourism-environment interaction in Bogda reflects the pattern of periodic changes in China’s protected areas to a certain extent.     

9.5–2.3 ka BP燕辽地区考古文化演变及其遗址的时空分布（英文）

With basic information from 8353 archaeological sites, this study describes a holistic spatial-temporal distribution pattern of archaeological sites of the prehistoric culture sequence from 9.5 ka BP (ka BP = thousands of years before 0 BP, where "0 BP" is defined as the year AD 1950) to 2.3 ka BP in the region that extends from the Yanshan Mountains to the Liaohe River Plain(i.e., the Yan-Liao region) in northern China. Based on spatial statistics analysis – including the spatial density of the sites and Geographic Information System nearest-neighbour analysis, combined with a review of environmental and climatic data – this paper analyses cultural evolution, the spatial-temporal features of the archaeological sites and human activities against the backdrop of climatic and environmental changes in this region. The results reveal that prehistoric cultural evolution in the Yan-Liao region is extensively influenced by climatic and environmental changes. The Xinglongwa, Zhaobaogou and Fuhe cultures, which primarily developed during a habitable period from 8.5 ka BP to 6.0 ka BP with strong summer monsoons, have similar maximum density values, spatial patterns and subsistence strategies dominated by hunting-gathering. Significant changes occurred in the Hongshan and Lower Xiajiadian cultures, with a significant increase in numbers and densities of sites and a slump in average nearest-neighbour ratio when the environment began to deteriorate starting in 6.0 ka BP. Additionally, with the onset of a weak summer monsoon and the predominance of primitive agriculture, sites of these two cultures present a different type of concentric circle-shaped pattern in space. As the environment continuously deteriorated with increasing aridity and the spread of steppe, more sites were distributed towards the south, and primitive agriculture was replaced by livestock husbandry in the Upper Xiajiadian culture. The most densely populated areas of the studied cultures are centralized within a limited area. The Laohahe River and Jiaolaihe River basins formed the core area in which most archaeological sites were distributed during the strong summer monsoon period and the first few thousand years of the weak summer monsoon period.     

黑河流域地理观测分析——复杂性科学视角（英文）

Since 2005,dozens of geographical observational stations have been established in the Heihe River Basin(HRB),and by now a large amount of meteorological,hydrological,and ecological observations as well as data pertaining to water resources,soil and vegetation have been collected.To adequately analyze these available data and data to be further collected in future,we present a perspective from complexity theory.The concrete materials covered include a presentation of adaptive multiscale filter,which can readily determine arbitrary trends,maximally reduce noise,and reliably perform fractal and multifractal analysis,and a presentation of scale-dependent Lyapunov exponent(SDLE),which can reliably distinguish deterministic chaos from random processes,determine the error doubling time for prediction,and obtain the defining parameters of the process examined.The adaptive filter is illustrated by applying it to obtain the global warming trend and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation from sea surface temperature data,and by applying it to some variables collected at the HRB to determine diurnal cycle and fractal properties.The SDLE is illustrated to determine intermittent chaos from river flow data.     

1986-2015年小浪底水库运行前后黄河下游主槽调整规律

Based on the measured discharge,sediment load,and cross-sectional data from 1986 to 2015 for the lower Yellow River,changes in the morphological parameters(width,depth,and cross-sectional geomorphic coefficient)of the main channel are analyzed in this paper.The results show that before the operation of the Xiaolangdi Reservoir(XLDR)from 1986 to 1999,the main channel shrunk continually,with decreasing width and depth.The rate of reduction in its width decreased along the river whereas that of depth increased in the downstream direction.Because the rate of decrease in the width of the main channel was greater than that in channel depth,the cross-sectional geomorphic coefficient decreased in the sub-reach above Gaocun.By contrast,for the sub-reach below Gaocun,the rate of decrease in channel width was smaller than that in channel depth,and the cross-sectional geomorphic coefficient increased.Once the XLDR had begun operation,the main channel eroded continually,and both its width and depth increased from 2000 to 2015.The rate of increase in channel width decreased in the longitudinal direction,and the depth of the main channel in all sub-reaches increased by more than 2 m.Because the rate of increase in the depth of the main channel was clearly larger than that of its width,the cross-sectional geomorphic coefficient decreased in all sub-reaches.The cross-sectional geometry of the main-channel of the lower Yellow River exhibited different adjustment patterns before and after the XLDR began operation.Before its operation,the main channel mainly narrowed in the transverse direction and silted in the vertical direction in the sub-reach above Aishan;in the sub-reach below Aishan,it primarily silted in the vertical direction.After the XLDR began operation,the main channel adjusted by widening in the transverse direction and deepening in the vertical direction in the sub-reach above Aishan;in the sub-reach below it,the main channel adjusted mainly by deepening in the vertical direction.Compared with the rates of decrease in the width and depth of the main channel during the siltation period,the rate of increase in channel width during the scouring period was clearly smaller while the rate of increase in channel depth was larger.After continual siltation and scouring from 1986 to 2015,the cross-sectional geometry of the main-channel changed from wide and shallow to relatively narrow and deep.The pattern of adjustment in the main channel was closely related to the water and sediment conditions.For the braided reach,the cross-sectional geomorphic coefficient was negatively correlated with discharge and positively correlated with suspended sediment concentration(SSC)during the siltation period.By contrast,the cross-sectional geomorphic coefficient was positively correlated with discharge and negatively correlated with SSC during the scouring period.For the transitional and meandering reaches,the cross-sectional geomorphic coefficient was negatively correlated with discharge and positively correlated with SSC.     

基于重心-GTWR模型的京津冀城市群研究

Research into urban expansion patterns and their driving forces is of great significance for urban agglomeration development planning and decision-making.In this paper,we reveal the multi-dimensional characteristics of urban expansion patterns,based on the intensity index of the urban expansion,the differentiation index of the urban expansion,the fractal dimension index,the land urbanization rate,and the center of gravity model,by taking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(Jing-Jin-Ji)urban agglomeration as an example.We then build the center of gravity-geographically and temporally weighted regression(GTWR)model by coupling the center of gravity model with the GTWR model.Through the analysis of the temporal and spatial patterns and by using the center of gravity-GTWR model,we analyze the driving forces of the urban land expansion and summarize the dominant development modes and core driving forces of the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration.The results show that:1)Between 1990 and 2015,the expansion intensity of the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration showed a down-up-down trend,and the peak period was in 2005-2010.Before 2005,high-speed development took place in Beijing,Tianjin,Baoding,and Langfang;after 2005,rapid development was seen in Xingtai and Handan.2)Although the barycenter of cities in the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration has shown a divergent trend,the local interaction between cities has been enhanced,and the driving forces of urban land expansion have shown a characteristic of spatial spillover.3)The spatial development mode of the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration has changed from a dual-core development mode to a multi-core development mode,which is made up of three functional cores:the transportation core in the northern part,the economic development core in the central part,and the investment core in the southern part.The synergistic development between each functional core has led to the multi-core development mode.4)The center of gravity-GTWR model combines the analysis of spatial and temporal nonstationarity with urban spatial interaction,and analyzes the urban land expansion as a space-time dynamic system.The results of this study show that the model is a feasible approach in the analysis of the driving forces of urban land expansion.     

Effect of climatic change on surface environments in the typical region of Horqin Sandy Land

The town of Agura,a typical region in Horqin Sandy Land,was selected as the study area in this paper.Using 12 remote sensing images and climatic data from the past 20 years,the effects of climate change on surface environments were analyzed.The impact indices of climatic factors,along with their corresponding ranks,were used to characterize the responses of different types of surface environments to climate change.Results show that in the past 20 years,the surface environments of the study area have been deteriorating.Furthermore,there is a positive relationship between the changes in surface environments and those in climatic factors.Various climatic factors influence surface environments in different ways and at different levels.The most sensitive factor is relative humidity,followed by precipitation and evaporation.Overall,moisture is the key factor that affects the changes in surface environments of arid and semi-arid areas.     

成都都市地理之研究

一 成都都市之位置与发育 成都都市之位置,可分三方面讨论;一为几何位置（Location),即都市之定点,乃在相当广大地区中所处於面上之方位,这一点,我们可从整个川西平原说起。川西平原,西起七五○公尺等高线,东至龙泉山麓,面积约一二○○○平方公里,成一东北西南向之斜长地带,南北二端狭窄,中央开展如椭圆形,乐山与绵竹之连线,即椭圆之长轴,龙泉驿灌县分居短轴之二端,双流约当二轴之交,近於椭圆圆心,成都位置,却微偏於东缘。     

Response of runoff in the headwater region of the Yellow River to climate change and its sensitivity analysis

Response of the runoff in the headwater region of the Yellow River to climate change and its sensibility are analyzed based on the measured data at the four hydrological stations and ten weather stations during the period 1959-2008. The result indicates that change of temperature in the region has an obvious corresponding relationship with global warming and the changes of annual average temperature in each subregion in the region have been presenting a fluctuant and rising state in the past 50 years. However the change of precipitation is more intricate than the change of temperature in the region because of the influences of the different geographical positions and environments in various areas, and the change of annual precipitation in the main runoff-producing area has been presenting a fluctuant and decreasing state in the past 50 years. And there is a remarkable nonlinear correlativity between runoff and precipitation and temperature in the region. The runoff in the region has been decreasing continuously since 1990 because the precipitation in the main runoff- producing area obviously decreases and the annual average temperature continuously rises. As a whole, the runoff in each subregion of the headwater region of the Yellow River is quite sensitive to precipitation change, while the runoff in the subregion above Jimai is more sensitive to temperature change than that in the others in the region, correspondingly.     

三江源地区气候变化及其对径流的驱动分析(英文)

Based on the precipitation and temperature data of the 12 meteorological stations in the "Three-River Headwaters" region and the observed runoff data of Zhimenda in the headwater sub-region of the Yangtze River, Tangnaihai in the headwater sub-region of the Yellow River and Changdu in the headwater sub-region of the Lancang River during the period 1965-2004, this paper analyses the trends of precipitation, temperature, runoff depth and carries out significance tests by means of Mann-Kendall-Sneyers sequential trend test. Makkink model is applied to calculate the potential evaporation. The runoff model driven by precipitation and potential evaporation is developed and the influence on runoff by climate change is simulated under different scenarios. Results show that during the period 1965-2004 the temperature of the "Three-River Headwaters" region is increasing, the runoff of the three hydrological stations is decreasing and both of them had abrupt changes in 1994, while no significant trend changes happen to the precipitation. The runoff model suggests that the precipitation has a positive effect on the runoff depth, while the potential evaporation plays a negative role. The influence of the potential evaporation on the runoff depth of the Lancang River is found to be the significant in the three rivers; and that of the Yellow River is the least. The result of the scenarios analysis indicates that although the precipitation and the potential evaporation have positive and negative effects on runoff relatively, fluctuated characteristics of individual effect on the runoff depth in specific situations are represented.     

Climate transformation to warm-humid and its effect on river runoff in the source region of the Yellow River

The change characteristics and trends of the regional climate in the source region of the Yellow River, and the response of runoff to climate change, are analyzed based on observational data of air temperature, precipitation, and runoff at 10 main hydrological and weather stations in the region. Our results show that a strong signal of climate shift from warm-dry to warm-humid in the western parts of northwestern China （Xinjiang） and the western Hexi Corridor of Gansu Province occurred in the late 1980s, and a same signal of climate change occurred in the mid-2000s in the source region of the Yellow River located in the eastern part of northwestern China. This climate changeover has led to a rapid increase in rainfall and stream runoff in the latter region. In most of the years since 2004 the average annual precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River has been greater than the long-term average annual value, and after 2007 the runoff measured at all of the hydrologic sections on the main channel of the Yellow River in the source region has also consistently exceeded the long-term average annual because of rainfall increase. It is difficult to determine the prospects of future climate change until additional observations and research are conducted on the rate and temporal and spatial extents of climate change in the region. Nevertheless, we predict that the climate shift from warm-dry to warm-humid in the source region of the Yellow River is very likely to be in the decadal time scale, which means a warming and rainy climate in the source region of the Yellow River will continue in the coming decades.     

黄河入海径流变化及影响因素

黄河入海径流是黄河水循环的重要分量,涉及整个流域,它的变化是流域气候与人类活动的综合体现。以黄河入海口利津水文站1963～2009年实测径流量年均值为基础,采用随机水文学方法,对入海径流动态变化进行了分析;结合流域内7个径流来源区的78个气象站同时段月均降水和气温数据及流域内取水量和水利工程等资料,探讨了不同径流来源区的气候因素和人类活动对入海径流量的影响。结果表明:近50年来入海实测径流量呈显着下降趋势,且存在1968年、1985年、1996年与2002年这四个突变点;入海天然径流量同样呈显着下降趋势,只有1985年一个突变点。唐乃亥以上区间的降水量、兰州至龙门区间的气温以及龙门至三门峡区间的降水和气温是引起入海天然径流量变化主要因素;气温因素的季节性变化对入海天然径流量也有影响,其中夏季降水与冬季气温是重要的因素。自20世纪70年代以来,人类活动对入海径流量的影响不断加强,且在耗水量、水土保持及水利工程等方面表现出明显的空间差异。取水量、降水、气温对黄河入海实测径流量变化的贡献率分别为42.2%、39.2%、18.6%.     

三江源气候变化及其对径流的驱动分析

以1965-2004 年三江源地区12 个气象台站的降水和气温资料以及长江源区直门达、黄河源区唐乃亥和澜沧江源区昌都水文站的径流资料为基础,分析三江源地区的降水、气温和径流的变化趋势,并采用Mann-Kendall-Sneyers 方法进行趋势显著性检验;采用Makkink 公式计算三江源区12 个气象站点的潜在蒸发,建立三江源区降水和潜在蒸发对径流的驱动模型,并对气候变化(降水和气温的变化) 对径流的驱动进行情景分析。研究表明：1965-2004 年三江源区气温升高,径流减少,并且气温和径流都在1994 年发生突变,但降水的变化趋势不明显。降水和潜在蒸发对径流深的驱动模型表明三江源区降水对径流起正向的驱动作用,潜在蒸发对径流起负向的驱动作用,具体来说,澜沧江源区潜在蒸发对径流的驱动力最大,长江源区次之,黄河源区最小。借助驱动模型对三江源气候变化(降水和气温的变化) 对径流的影响进行情景分析,结果显示,降水和气温对径流的驱动在总体上虽然分别是正、负方向上的驱动,但在具体情景下其各自的驱动作用又呈现出波动的特征。     

黄河上游近60 a径流量与降水量变化特征研究

为探究黄河上游径流量与降水量变化特征,基于唐乃亥、下河沿、头道拐3个水文站近60 a的降水量、径流量资料,采用线性倾向趋势检验、Mann-Kendall检验法（M-K趋势检验）、Spearman秩次相关检验、M-K突变检验、Pettitt非参数检验、有序聚类分析、累积距平法、双累积曲线等分析方法对比研究了黄河上游及上游不同子区域降水量和径流量的变化特征,并讨论了径流量对降水量的响应关系。结果表明：黄河上游降水量呈不显著增加趋势,在2003年发生突变,突变前后变化率为4.67%;径流量呈显著减少趋势,突变年份为1986年,突变前后变化率为35.34%。3个子区域年降水量变化趋势分别呈显著增加、不显著增加和显著减少趋势,径流量均呈减少趋势。以唐乃亥以上的Ⅰ区为基准区时,唐乃亥—下河沿所在的Ⅱ区降水量因素对径流量的影响达到25.08%,非降水量因素为74.92%,而下河沿—头道拐的Ⅲ区,降水量对径流量的影响为32.14%,非降水量因素为67.86%。研究结果对黄河流域水资源综合管理与科学配置具有参考意义。     

黄河流域水资源演化模式分析

应用EMD-Hilbert变换方法分析花园口以上降水和天然径流近50年的资料系列。结果表明：黄河流域降水演化模式可由4个内在模函数以及一个单调递减的趋势项表示,而天然径流的演化则由3个基本模态和一个单调递减的趋势组成。黄河流域降水和天然径流的演化模式存在一定的相关关系,但两者之间并非一一对应的关系。从时间上看,不论是内在模函数还是趋势项,相对于降水,天然径流都表现出滞后的特点,一定程度上反映了下垫面调蓄作用对径流演化过程的影响。此外,从降水和天然径流内在模函数的周期可以推测黄河流域的水资源演化可能与大气低频振荡有关。     

Possible change on the runoff in the upper Yellow River basin under global climate change

In this study,the characteristics and changing trends of temperature,precipitation,and runoff in the upper Yellow River basin up Tangnag station are analyzed by using hydrological and meteorological data in the past 50 years from observation stations in the basin.Further,in this study,the evolving trend of runoff in the future decades is forecasted in the basin based on the method of suppositional climate scenes combination.The results indicate temperature variation in the basin has an evident positive relation with global warming,and the precipitation variations are quite complicated in the basin because of differences of located geographic positions during the past 50 years.Runoff in the basin has been decreasing continually since the end of the 1980s because the mean temperature in the basin has been rising and precipitation in the main areas of runoff formation in the basin has been decreasing.Runoff will largely decrease if precipitation decreases and temperature rises continuously,whereas runoff will increase if temperature is invariable and precipitation increases largely;the increase magnitude of runoff may be more than that of precipitation because of the synchronously increasing supply of meltwater from snow,glacier,and frozen soils in future several decades.     

近50年黄土高原侵蚀性降水的时空变化特征

利用黄土高原及其附近地区99个站点逐日降水观测资料,分析了1956～2005年黄土高原年降水量、侵蚀性降水量、暴雨量的变化趋势和空间特征.研究表明:1956～2005年黄土高原降水在波动中呈现下降趋势,尤其自1980年年以来,降水减少趋势显著.黄土高原地区降水变化具有显著的空间差异,降水偏少最为显著区域位于黄河中游的河口-龙门区间,尤以无定河流域、汾河流域和山西中北部最为典型,年降水量和侵蚀性降水偏少10%以上.存在从北向南沿朔州-离石-临汾-三门峡一带的暴雨异常偏少地带,偏少在20%以上.     

黄河上游径流变化特征及其影响因素初步分析

利用1956—2005年黄河上游水文和气象台站观测的流量、气温、降水资料,用气候诊断方法分析了该地区径流量的年代际演变特征以及影响因子。结果表明：20世纪50—80年代年平均流量呈波动性的上升趋势,90年代至21世纪的前5年年平均流量呈下降趋势。降水量、蒸发量、气温是影响流域流量的主要气象因子,它们的机理完全不同。枯季、雨季降水量与流量分别呈负、正反馈机制,秋季和冬季降水量对次年春夏季的流量有比较明显的调节作用;4—5月（10月）气温与后期5—6月（11月）流量呈负（正）反馈机制;枯季、雨季地表蒸发与流域的河川流量呈负反馈机制,并且消耗的水资源量呈逐年增加的趋势。20世纪90年代以来黄河上游地区河川流量的减少与降水量减少、地表蒸发量增大有关。