基于EFDC模型的河道型水库藻类生长对流域污染负荷削减的响应——以广东长潭水库为例

将环境(EFDC)模型应用于广东梅州的河道型水库——长潭水库,经过模型的验证,建立长潭水库水生态数学模型,模拟出水库在现状污染负荷下的藻类生长情况,以叶绿素a浓度为指标,研究水库在丰水年与枯水年富营养化改善程度对不同流域污染削减方案的响应关系.结果表明:现状污染负荷削减10%,在丰水年库尾、库中和库首点位的叶绿素a平均浓度分别降低13.99%、12.00%和10.35%;枯水年3个代表点位叶绿素a平均浓度分别下降8.42%、5.63%和2.10%.污染削减20%的情况下,丰水年3个代表点位的叶绿素a浓度分别降低26.78%、19.25%和17.04%,枯水年对应的降低幅度分别为11.72%、7.97%和5.12%;库尾地区表现出河道的特征,在污染负荷削减的情况下藻类生长能够受到有效遏制,库首地区则表现出湖泊的特性,枯水年这一特征表现更加突出,污染削减20%的情况下,叶绿素a的平均浓度仅降低5.12%.     

广东长潭水库富营养化与浮游植物分布特征

为掌握梅州市长潭水库富营养化状态与浮游植物分布特征,为控制藻类水华暴发提供科学依据,2011年10月至2012年7月,在长潭水库关键断面选取10个监测点,测定水体理化特征、浮游植物种类、丰度等指标,采用营养状态指数(TLI)和Shannon-Wiener多样性指数法对水质污染现状进行评价,并分析浮游植物类群分布特征.结果表明:长潭水库水体富营养状态在4、10和12月处于中营养级,7月份处于富营养级,营养指数从库区中游上游逐渐降低;观测期间共检出浮游植物4门11科16属,通过丰度比较,发现长潭水库以蓝绿藻为优势种,并且季节变化明显,总体表现为7月 >4月 >10月 >12月;藻类多样性指数分析显示,水库水体污染水平为中度,中游和库区(除7月)为轻度污染,与综合营养指数结果一致;长潭水库污染源调查分析结果表明,该水库主要为氮、磷污染,污染源主要为上游禽畜养殖废水.     

长江倒灌对鄱阳湖水动力特征影响的数值模拟

长江水倒灌是鄱阳湖的一个重要现象,是江湖作用的具体体现.利用环境流体动力学开源代码(EFDC)建立鄱阳湖的二维水动力模型,并借助染色剂模块和水龄模块,分析鄱阳湖全年的水动力变化过程、倒灌现象及其影响.数值模拟结果精确地验证倒灌的发生、持续时间和倒灌流量,显示倒灌时期湖区水力梯度、湖流逆向的特点.顶托作用强于鄱阳湖盆地作用时是倒灌发生的条件,通过计算倒灌发生的临界流量并与实际来流进行对比,本文提出新的倒灌判定条件,可以准确地预测倒灌和预估倒灌流量,且利用2007 2009年的测量数据验证了其可靠性.通过在赣江入流设置染色剂的方法,模拟获得2008年4次倒灌入流水体在湖区的占据面积.顶托作用和倒灌造成湖水不能外泄甚至逆流,增加湖区水体的水龄,通过数值模拟并与水力停留时间进行对比,估算出湖湖水水龄的增加时间.     

太湖水龄分布特征及“引江济太”工程对其的影响

太湖作为典型的风生流湖泊,风场对水体运输和交换的过程起着重要的作用.基于环境水动力学模型EFDC源程序建立了染色剂模型以及水龄模型,借助水龄研究太湖水体的长期输运过程和更新速率特征,从而为太湖的调水工程管理提供科学依据.本文在研究春、夏、秋、冬季不同风场作用下太湖的水龄季节性分布特征的基础上,结合太湖实测风速、流量数据及"引江济太"工程调水运行的现状,着重分析了望虞河枢纽调水运行以及新沟河工程对太湖水龄分布的影响.数值试验的模拟结果表明:太湖水体交换受季风影响明显,春、夏季的水龄相对较大、水体交换较差;靠近湖流入口处的地方水龄较小,远离入口的地方水龄较大;水流流向与风向一致时水龄减小,水循环加快,反之则减慢.望虞河引水引工程能够减小贡湖及湖心区的水龄,加快贡湖湖区及湖心区的水循环;新沟河工程引水能够减小梅梁湖区的水龄,改善该湖区的水质.引水工程的实施对加快整个太湖的水循环做出重要贡献.     

水库诱发地震时空演化与库水加卸载及渗透过程的关系 ——以紫坪铺水库为例

为了解水库蓄水过程中,水库诱发地震活动的动态响应机制,本文建立了针对水库诱发地震(Reservoir-induced seismicity,RIS)定量化研究的数理模型,并以紫坪铺水库为例,对库区地质构造及水文地质结构条件、水库蓄水后库区小震活动时空演化特征进行了详细的研究.在此基础上,利用有限元方法计算了水库蓄水过程中弹性附加应力场、有效附加应力场、孔隙压力和断层稳定性的动态变化,讨论了RIS时空演化与库水加卸载及渗透过程的动态响应关系.结果表明:(1) RIS诱发机制的定量化模型可分为2个层次:一是以孔隙介质为载体的流体渗流对岩体变形和稳定性的影响,由流-固耦合形式的岩体变形与孔隙渗流模型进行描述;二是对断层相关的RIS定量研究可将水库附加水头压力沿断层面(区)的扩散与断层库仑应力变化联系起来.两种形式模型方法的结合能为RIS定量研究提供一个相对宏观的力学框架;(2) 断裂渗透结构对孔隙压力变化下断裂的力学响应具有重要的影响,研究区主干断裂可能属于一种上盘破碎带导水、下盘地层及断层核阻水的"下阻上导型"的渗透结构类型,不同程度的具有使地表水体向深部渗流的通道性.库区深部岩体渗透稳定性的差异在很大程度上导致了诱发地震活动对岩性条件的依赖.(3) 紫坪铺水库蓄水后,小震活动在空间分布上呈现出条带状分布、丛集分布和地震迁移的特点,小震震源深度优势分布在地下4~10 km范围内,在通济场断裂与安县—灌县断裂的深部汇聚区域震源分布最为密集.同时,小震活动主要集中发生在脆性程度高、渗透稳定性低的碳酸盐岩地层中,而在岩性较软弱、渗透稳定性高的三叠系须家河组砂泥岩和煤系地层中很少有地震发生.在水库蓄水后地震活动的时间响应特征上,水库西南侧和东北侧两个丛集区的小震活动可能属于"快速响应型"RIS,而都江堰小震群活动可能属于"滞后响应型"诱发地震活动;(4) RIS的发生与库水加卸载及渗透过程中库底岩体有效应力的变化密切相关.在以挤压为主的构造应力环境中,库体荷载作用的结果一般会使库底断层更趋向稳定,而水库附加水头压力扩散的效应则是促使断层趋向失稳,正是这个矛盾双方相互制约与平衡的动态过程,控制了断层库仑应力变化的取向,从而决定了RIS时空演化的规律.     

亚热带大型河流型水库—富春江水库浮游植物群落及其与环境因子的关系

为了掌握富春江水库浮游植物群落特征,探寻其与环境因子的关系,于2006年1月至2007年12月,对其进行了20次采样调查.鉴定结果表明富春江水库共有浮游植物107种,浮游植物密度范围在0.21×10~5-3.01×10~7cells/L之间.浮游植物组成随季节变化有所不同,春季绿藻、隐藻、硅藻占优势,夏季蓝藻和硅藻占优势,秋冬季硅藻、隐藻占优势.浮游植物群落结构受水文条件的影响较大,浮游植物密度与水体温度呈显著正相关,与透明度在不同范围内表现出不同的相关关系;与TN、TP在不同范围内表现出不同的相关关系,与TN/TP及可溶性硅呈显著正相关.库区总氮和总磷浓度均很高,足够满足藻类生长需要;TN/TP较低,基本在8-30之间,说明氮磷含量不是富春江库区藻类生长的限制因子.水文季节性变化会明显地影响浮游植物群落结构和密度的季节性变化,特别是降雨、水温及水力滞留时间等因子是影响水库浮游植物群落结构及密度变化的主要因子.     

大桥水库4.6级地震前后的库水加卸载响应比变化特征

多年的实测数据表明,大桥水库的坝前水位年变化约40m,库水对库盆的静压变化大约为4×105Pa,比固体潮的作用大2个量级,水库的蓄水和放水是对库区影响最大的加卸载力源。根据加卸载响应比理论(LURR),用库区的地震频次和能量分别研究在大桥水库诱发M_S4.6地震前后加卸载响应比的变化。结果表明:在大桥水库及附近相对较大的范围和水体附近相对较小的范围内,当库水加载过程中发生小震群时,地震频次加卸载响应比Y_n和C_r值显示高值异常,表明研究区岩石处于临近破裂状态,其后发生4.6级水库诱发地震;蓄水前后地震频次库水加卸载响应比Y_n和C_r值的平均值有明显差异;在大桥水库诱发的4.6级地震前,库水加卸载作用导致的地震频次及能量的加卸载响应比在震前存在明显的高值异常,震后异常消失。大桥4.6级震例表明库水加卸载响应比可有效应用于水库诱发地震的监测预报     

南京市5座中型水库浮游动物群落结构及其与环境因子的关系

于2010年5月—2011年2月,对南京市5座中型湖泊型水库浮游动物群落结构进行每季度一次的调查采样,同时测定总氮、总磷、透明度等理化因子及浮游植物等生物因子.共鉴定到浮游动物17科28属,优势种为盔形溞(Daphnia galeata)、象鼻溞(Bosmina spp.)、汤匙华哲水蚤(Sinocalanus dorrii)、多肢轮虫(Trichocerca spp.)、异尾轮虫(Polyarthra spp.)等.5座水库浮游动物年均密度变化范围为72~1401 ind./L,其中河王水库密度显著大于其他水库,而4个季节间浮游动物密度无显著差异.5座水库浮游动物年均生物量变化范围为102~339μg/L,季节间、水库间浮游动物生物量均无显著性差异.浮游动物群落结构与环境因子的典范对应分析表明,影响5座水库浮游动物群落结构的环境因子主要为营养盐、水温、透明度和浮游植物密度.     

库水模型及库水深度对拱坝动力响应的影响

基于接触非线性有限元模型,以锦屏一级拱坝为例,库水分别采用附加质量模型、可压缩流体有限元模型、不可压缩流体有限元模型计算了正常蓄水位及运行低水位时坝体的动力响应,结果表明:库水模型对拱坝动力响应有较大影响,随库水深度的增大,各模型计算结果差异增大;相比于流体可压缩模型,采用不可压缩流体模型所得动力响应普遍偏大;运行低水位工况,由于静水压力减小导致拱效应减弱,从而降低了拱坝的整体性,因此运行低水位工况各缝开度普遍高于正常蓄水位工况,且其拉应力范围较大,因此,运行低水位工况将对抗震设计起控制作用。     

环太湖江苏段入湖河道污染物通量与湖区水质的响应关系

基于2008-2018年环太湖江苏段入湖河道污染物通量及湖区水质数据,从时空变化及相关关系两个方面探讨了入湖污染物通量与湖区水质的响应关系,并分析了污染物进入湖体影响水质的主要因子.结果表明:太湖污染减排已见成效,氨氮、总氮、高锰酸盐指数和化学需氧量入湖污染物通量整体呈下降趋势,年均下降率分别为8.0%、2.0%、1.6%和2.2%,湖体氨氮和总氮时间格局响应较好,年均下降率分别为2.1%和2.3%.湖体氨氮、总氮、总磷、高锰酸盐指数和化学需氧量与入湖污染物通量整体由西北部、西部湖区向东南部、东部湖区递减,空间格局上响应基本一致.全湖区年尺度总氮、氨氮浓度与入湖河道污染物通量分别呈显著正相关、极显著正相关关系;影响湖区总氮、氨氮的主要因子为入湖河道的总氮、氨氮浓度,其次为入湖河道浓度与原湖区水质差值,因此亟需加强入湖河道水质浓度的控制.     

基于EFDC模型的深圳水库富营养化模拟

基于EFDC模型构建了深圳水库三维水动力和富营养化定量模拟模型.分别用2009年和2010 2011年流量、水位和水质等观测数据对模型进行了校正和验证,准确地反映了深圳水库的水动力和水质变化过程.在此基础上,假定支流污染截排、水库调度和降低东江引水污染负荷3种情景进行深圳水库富营养化数值模拟,3种情景下库中Chl.a峰值浓度分别降低1.0%、16.4%和46.3%,平均浓度分别降低1.3%、29.8%和29.9%.深圳水库具有良好的交换能力,尚未出现水华暴发,但入库营养盐负荷高,存在较大的富营养化风险;在目前沙湾河污水已经截排的基础上再实施支流污染控制,对水质改善和藻类控制作用已不明显;水库调度和削减东江引水污染负荷对深圳水库水质和富营养化改善明显,能够有效降低水华发生的风险.     

气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖水龄影响的定量区分

在气候变化和人类活动的双重影响下,湖泊内部的水动力条件正发生重大的变化,进而影响到湖泊水环境的变化.水龄是颗粒物从入口传输到指定点的时间,可以定量反映水体的运动和交换程度以及滞留情况.如何定量区分人类活动与气候变化对水龄的影响程度,对湖泊水资源科学管理和水环境的治理有着重要的科学意义.本文耦合了深度学习网络和传统二维水...     

Sensitivity of streamflow from a Himalayan catchment to plausible changes in land cover and climate

Global climate change will likely increase temperature and variation in precipitation in the Himalayas, modifying both supply of and demand for water. This study assesses combined impacts of land‐cover and climate changes on hydrological processes and a rainfall‐to‐streamflow buffer indicator of watershed function using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in Kejie watershed in the eastern Himalayas. The Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3) was used for two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios (A2 and B2), for 2010–2099. Four land‐cover change scenarios increase forest, grassland, crops, or urban land use, respectively, reducing degraded land. The SWAT model predicted that downstream water resources will decrease in the short term but increase in the long term. Afforestation and expansion in cropland will probably increase actual evapotranspiration (ET) and reduce annual streamflow but will also, through increased infiltration, reduce the overland flow component of streamflow and increase groundwater release. An expansion in grassland will decrease actual ET, increase annual streamflow and groundwater release, while decreasing overland flow. Urbanization will result in increases in streamflow and overland flow and reductions in groundwater release and actual ET. Land‐cover change dominated over effects on streamflow of climate change in the short and middle terms. The predicted changes in buffer indicator for land‐use plus climate‐change scenarios reach up to 50% of the current (and future) range of inter‐annual variability. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Integrating downscaled CMIP5 data with a physically based hydrologic model to estimate potential climate change impacts on streamflow processes in a mixed‐use watershed

Climatic changes have altered surface water regimes worldwide, and climate projections suggest that such alterations will continue. To inform management decisions, climate projections must be paired with hydrologic models to develop quantitative estimates of watershed scale water regime changes. Such modeling approaches often involve downscaling climate model outputs, which are generally presented at coarse spatial scales. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate model projections were analyzed to determine models representing severe and conservative climate scenarios for the study watershed. Based on temperature and precipitation projections, output from GFDL‐ESM2G (representative concentration pathway 2.6) and MIROC‐ESM (representative concentration pathway 8.5) were selected to represent conservative (Δ_C) and severe (Δ_S) change scenarios, respectively. Climate data were used as forcing for the soil and water assessment tool to analyze the potential effects of climate change on hydrologic processes in a mixed‐use watershed in central Missouri, USA. Results showed annual streamflow decreases ranging from ?5.9% to ?26.8% and evapotranspiration (ET) increases ranging from +7.2% to +19.4%. During the mid‐21st century, sizeable decreases to summer streamflow were observed under both scenarios, along with large increases of fall, spring, and summer ET under Δ_S. During the late 21st century period, large decreases of summer streamflow under both scenarios, and large increases to spring (Δ_S), fall (Δ_S) and summer (Δ_C) ET were observed. This study demonstrated the sensitivity of a Midwestern watershed to future climatic changes utilizing projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models and presented an approach that used multiple climate model outputs to characterize potential watershed scale climate impacts.     

新丰江水库中上地壳P波三维速度结构特征及库水的渗透影响

利用震源位置和速度结构的联合反演得到2007年6月-2014年7月新丰江水库地区地震序列的震源位置及中上地壳P波三维速度结构模型,并进一步研究库区序列分布及速度结构特征.结果显示：库区中上地壳不同深度P波速度存在显著横向不均匀性,浅部库区速度高于周缘,在5~10 km上地壳从库坝下游白田至库尾锡场NW方向存在高速异常体以及2个低速间断区域,低速间断区分别位于人字石断裂与南山-坳头断裂交汇处以及1962年6.1级地震震源区,库水可能沿低速间断区的人字石断裂、石角-新港-白田断裂下渗至13~14 km的地壳.在10~14 km地壳以NE走向的大坪-岩前断裂为界,NW侧为最高速度6.2 km·s^-1的高速区域,SE侧从库区中部回龙至库坝下游白田为显著低速异常区域,是可能的库水渗透影响区域,亦是库区中强地震集中区.库区地震多发生在高速体内部、高低速过渡带或低速的渗水通道两侧.

     

Hydrological responses to climate shifts for a minimally disturbed mountainous watershed in northwestern China

Much attention has been focused on investigating the effects of precipitation and temperature changes on runoff; however, the influence of wind speed, relative humidity and total solar radiation on hydrological components needs to be studied further. Hydrological responses to climate variations in a minimally disturbed mountainous watershed in the period 1971–2012 are identified and evaluated by statistical analysis and hydrological simulation. The results indicate that the impact of climate component changes on the hydrological process cannot be discounted. The temperature and relative humidity exhibit significant upward trends, while the wind speed exhibits a clear downward trend. The potential and actual evapotranspiration dramatically increased, but the observed pan evaporation substantially decreased. The surface water, soil water, baseflow and water yield are positively correlated with precipitation and relative humidity but negatively correlated with the temperature, wind speed and solar radiation.     

Impacts of climate change on water resources in the Mediterranean Basin: a case study in Catalonia,Spain

Abstract

Most climate change projections show important decreases in water availability in the Mediterranean region by the end of this century. We assess those main climate change impacts on water resources in three medium-sized catchments with varying climatic conditions in northeastern Spain. A combination of hydrological modelling and climate projections with B1 and A2 IPCC emission scenarios is performed to infer future streamflows. The largest reduction (34%) in mean streamflows (for 2076–2100) is expected in the headwaters of the two wettest catchments, while lower decreases (25% of mean value for 2076–2100) are expected in the drier one. In all three catchments, autumn and summer are the seasons with the most notable projected decreases in streamflow, of 50% and 30%, respectively. Thus, ecological flows in the study area might be noticeably influenced by climate change, especially in the headwaters of the wet catchments.     

The characteristics of magma reservoir failure beneath a volcanic edifice

Eruptions fed from subsurface reservoirs commonly construct volcanic edifices at the surface, and the growth of an edifice will in turn modify the subsurface stress state that dictates the conditions under which subsequent rupture of the inflating reservoir can occur. We re-examine this problem using axisymmetric finite element models of ellipsoidal reservoirs beneath conical edifices, explicitly incorporating factors (e.g., full gravitational loading conditions, an elastic edifice instead of a surface load, reservoir pressures sufficient to induce tensile rupture) that compromise previous solutions to illustrate why variations in rupture behavior can occur. Relative to half-space model results, the presence of an edifice generally rotates rupture toward the crest of a spherical reservoir, with increasing flank slope (for an edifice of constant volume) and larger edifices (or greater reservoir scaled depths) normally serving to enhance this trend. When non-spherical reservoirs are considered, the presence of an edifice amplifies previously identified half-space failure characteristics, shifting rupture to the crest more rapidly for prolate reservoirs while forcing rupture closer to the midpoint of oblate reservoirs. Rupture is always observed to occur in the σ_t orientation, and depending on where initial failure occurs rupture favors the initial emplacement of either lateral sills, circumferential intrusions or vertically ascending dikes. Ultimately, integration of our numerical model results with other information, for instance the sequence of intrusion/eruption events observed at a given volcano, can provide useful new insight into how a volcano's subsurface magma plumbing system evolved. We demonstrate this process through application of our model to Summer Coon, a well-studied stratocone on Earth, and Ilithyia Mons, a large conical shield volcano on Venus.