闽江流域耕地动态变化及其驱动力研究

通过对闽江流域1990-2005年耕地动态变化的分析,得出闽江流域耕地的时空变化情况.15年来流域耕地呈减少的趋势,特别是富屯溪支流和闽江下游区域.结合Areview软件和SPSS统计方法,分析耕地变化的时空差异、驱动因子并采用主成分分析方法对社会经济因素进行归纳,主要为经济发展、人口增长、城市化水平和第三产业因素4个方面,其结果将为进一步研究耕地变化对流域生态环境的影响提供科学依据.     

近20年中国北方13省的耕地变化与驱动力

利用 1983年1月至1999年12月长时间序列NOAA/AVHRR NDVI 数据和2001年逐旬SPOT/VGT 数据,获取了中国北方13省1980s初期、1990s初期、1990s末期和2000s初期地表土地覆盖特征,阐述了中国北方13省的耕地变化过程,并重点讨论了人类活动对耕地变化特征的影响和耕地变化的驱动力。发现：(1) 裸地、耕地等弱生态用地面积持续增加,而林地和草地等生态功能用地和混合功能用地持续减少是我国北方1983~1999年土地利用/覆盖变化的主要特征,这在一定程度上影响着区域生态系统的调节功能。但在2000s初期,这种状况有所改观,表明国家自20世纪末期开始实施的退耕还林还草等一系列生态环境建设措施在一定程度上开始发挥作用;(2) 从1983~2001年,中国北方13省的耕地重心整体上表现出向西南方向偏移的趋势。此外,地形和交通状况对耕地的空间变化过程影响明显,区域耕地面积主要集中在海拔较低、坡度较小的平原和丘陵地带,耕地利用强度一般随着距交通干线距离的增加而减少;(3) 人们生活收入水平以及农业产量变化与耕地变化关系密切,其中人们生活收入水平与耕地面积成负相关,而农业产量与耕地面积呈正相关,表明经济的发展以及人们生活水平提高导致的非农用地量增加以及农业用地内部的结构调整是中国北方13省耕地变化的重要原因。     

长春市耕地动态变化及其驱动力分析

利用1988~2007年统计数据和土地详查与变更调查资料,分析了长春市19a间耕地总量动态变化情况,并在此基础上运用主成分分析进一步探讨了影响长春市耕地变化的主要驱动因素。结果表明:①1988~2007年长春市耕地数量总体呈下降趋势;②经济发展是长春市耕地数量变化的主要驱动因素;③主成分分析中各因子的因子载荷除林牧渔业占农林牧渔业总产值为0.575外,其他均大于0.9;④耕地产出率与林牧渔业占农林牧渔业总产值的比例因子载荷相对较高。影响长春市耕地总量动态变化的驱动因子可归纳为社会经济发展、人口增长、农业科技进步三大因素。     

近60a三工河流域耕地利用动态变化与驱动力分析

基于近60a耕地利用相关数据,从耕地规模、结构和效益分析三工河流域耕地利用动态变化,并利用回归模型和灰色关联方法对耕地利用变化的驱动机制进行分析.结果表明:(1)三工河流域耕地面积总体呈增加趋势,人均耕地则趋于下降;种植业结构变化趋势与全疆吻合,由以粮食为主向粮食、经济作物并重转变;农作物单位面积产量趋于上升,单位面积...     

现阶段我国耕地变化趋势及其驱动力分析

在前人研究基础上,利用国家统计资料,分析了我国近20年来耕地变化总体趋势：耕地总量持续减少;耕地质量不断下降,且地区间的数量、质量变化不平衡。并采用最大似然法对多变量作因子分析,找出我国耕地变化的主要驱动力：人口的不断增长,第三产业的迅速发展,洪涝灾害的频繁发生及水土流失的日益加剧。最后针对分析结果,提出藏粮于土、加强水土保持、加强第三产业用地管理等若干关于耕地资源保护与管理的建议。     

耕地与建设用地变化驱动力比较分析

基于南昌市新建县1991~2005年土地利用和自然社会经济数据,采用数理统计分析方法,定量综合探讨耕地和建设用地变化驱动力。结果表明,社会经济因子对耕地、建设用地变化驱动方向和强弱顺序表现差异性;驱动因素同一性主要表现在,经济发展状况、城镇化水平和人口增长是耕地和建设用地变化的驱动因子主分量;相同驱动因素的影响敏感性也表现出差异性。     

闽东南地区耕地资源动态变化及其驱动力分析

根据1997～2005年的耕地统计数据及相关的社会经济资料,分析了闽东南地区耕地资源动态变化趋势;利用SPSS软件对9个驱动因子进行主成分分析,揭示研究区耕地利用变化的驱动机制。结果表明：近10年来,闽东南地区的耕地数量总体上呈减少趋势;社会经济发展、人口增长压力、比较经济利益驱动和城市建设是研究区耕地减少的4个驱动因子,并进一步分析了这些驱动因子与耕地变化的关系。其结果将为进一步研究闽东南地区耕地变化提供借鉴,为合理利用和保护耕地、促进区域可持续发展提供科学依据。     

粤东北丘陵山区耕地变化及其驱动力研究

通过对梅州市耕地动态变化的分析,得出该市耕地变化的驱动力主要为社会经济因素.通过主成分分析,将影响耕地变化的13个社会经济因子分别归纳为人口增长、经济发展和农业产量变化3个方面.认为区域人口数量、农业生产总值及农业生产总量与研究区的耕地变化关系密切.针对耕地变化的不同驱动力提出切实保护耕地资源的对策.     

耕地安全时空变化及其驱动力研究——以江西省鹰潭市为例

耕地安全是保障我国持续增长的人口能健康生存的关键。掌握耕地安全的时空变化特征及其驱动力对维护耕地安全意义很大。本研究考虑耕地数量、质量和生态安全的平衡与稳定性,构建了耕地安全评价指标体系,采用改进的TOPSIS方法,对江西省鹰潭市1995-2015年耕地安全状况进行评价,并分析其时空变化特征。利用空间回归模型研究耕地安全时空变化的驱动力,可消除空间自相关的影响。研究结果表明:1995-2005年鹰潭市耕地安全呈快速下降趋势,2005-2015年耕地安全呈缓慢上升趋势。非常危险的耕地主要分布在月湖区,而安全状态的耕地主要位于南部山地区域,一般危险的耕地范围随城市发展方向往西部扩张延伸。驱动因素中,社会经济因素和政策因素对耕地安全变化有显著影响。根据耕地安全的时空变化规律和耕地安全的驱动因素,可采取相应措施提高耕地安全水平。     

新疆墨玉绿洲耕地变化及人地关系演进驱动力研究

以新疆墨玉绿洲为例,借助土地利用遥感数据和社会经济统计资料,结合多年实地调查,利用分形理论,计算了墨玉绿洲1989,1999和2006年耕地资源的分维值D、稳定性指数SI和分维变△D,并根据其值的物理意义,对耕地的动态变化进行了定量和定性分析。进而利用典型性相关分析方法,从社会经济因素进行墨玉绿洲耕地变化趋势和驱动力的研究。结果表明:人口的增长和农业生产的发展是影响耕地变化的主要经济因素;一些政策因素,如土地限制性开发、退耕还林政策等对耕地变化影响也很大。最后引进经济密度的概念,进一步验证上述结论。     

山东省耕地变化趋势及驱动力研究

根据山东省各市、县的统计资料,分析了山东省50年代以来耕地面积变化的总体趋势、空间差异和驱动因子。结果表明:经济发展动态、社会系统压力和农业科技进步是影响山东省耕地数量变化的三类因素。通过建立多元回归模型,预测出2005和2010年的耕地数量,并对研究结果应用GIS进行了空间表达。研究结果和分析结论对山东省农业可持续发展具有重要意义     

Understanding cultivated land dynamics and its driving forces in northern China during 1983-2001

Based on the long-term serial NOAA/NDVI dataset during 1983-1999 and SPOT/VGT dataset in 2001, the land use/cover change information in the 13 provinces of northern China was extracted based on the analysis of the cultivated landscape characteristics at first, then the effects of human activities on cultivated land process were explored by GIS and the driving forces of cultivated land change were investigated. The conclusions can be drawn as follows: (1) The constant increase of weak ecological function land as desert and cultivated land and the decrease of the ecological function land of forest and shrub were the main characteristics of the land use/cover change in the 13 provinces from 1983 to 1999, which showed the effects on the ecological adjustment function. However, such situations were changed to some extent in the 2000s because of the eco-construction policy of the government. (2) From 1983 to 2001, the Barycenter of cultivated land tended to move from northeast to southwest with the topography and transportation situations being the main influences on the cultivated land distribution. It is found that the cultivated land use intensity decreased noticably with the increase of distance from the main communication arteries. (3) The improvement of the people's living standard is closely related with the cultivated land change. The structural adjustment in the agricultural land caused by economic development and the improvement of the people's living standard is an important factor affecting the cultivated land change in northern China from 1983 to 2001.     

Dynamic trends and driving forces of land use intensification of cultivated land in China

The aim of this study is to establish several important factors representing land use intensification in cultivated land (denoted by CII), using a multi-dimensional approach to achieve realistic and practical cultivated land use policies in China. For this reason, the theoretical framework was first built to explain the changes of land use intensification in the cultivated land, and then the variables and index were further developed for the purpose of characterizing the dynamic trends and driving forces of the land use intensification in the cultivated land at the provincial level. The study results indicate that the extent of CII significantly increased during the period of 1996 to 2008, due to the extensive use of fertilizers, machinery and pesticide, increased labor and capital input, and intensified land use. Moreover, the principal component regression results show that the productivity of cultivated land, economic benefits of cultivated land, labor productivity, and land use conversion are the main factors affecting the village development. The first three factors play a positive role, while the last one has a negative effect on the land use intensification in the cultivated land. According to these results, the main policies for sustainable intensification in cultivated land are proposed. First, the sustainable pathways for intensification should be adopted to reduce the unsustainable uses of chemical fertilizer, agricultural chemicals, etc. Second, the conditions for agricultural production should be further improved to increase the cultivated land productivity. Third, it is very necessary and helpful for improving labor productivity and land use efficiency from the viewpoint of accelerated the cultivated land circulation. The last step is to positively affect the production activities of peasants by means of reforming the subsidy standards.     

21世纪初中国土地利用变化的空间格局与驱动力

Land use and land cover change as the core of coupled human-environment systems has become a potential field of land change science (LCS) in the study of global environmental change. Based on remotely sensed data of land use change with a spatial resolution of 1 km × 1 km on national scale among every 5 years, this paper designed a new dynamic regionalization according to the comprehensive characteristics of land use change including regional differentiation, physical, economic, and macro-policy factors as well. Spatial pattern of land use change and its driving forces were investigated in China in the early 21st century. To sum up, land use change pattern of this period was characterized by rapid changes in the whole country. Over the agricultural zones, e.g., Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, the southeast coastal areas and Sichuan Basin, a great proportion of fine arable land were engrossed owing to considerable expansion of the built-up and residential areas, resulting in decrease of paddy land area in southern China. The development of oasis agriculture in Northwest China and the reclamation in Northeast China led to a slight increase in arable land area in northern China. Due to the Grain for Green policy, forest area was significantly increased in the middle and western developing regions, where the vegetation coverage was substantially enlarged, likewise. This paper argued the main driving forces as the implementation of the strategy on land use and regional development, such as policies of Western Development, Revitalization of Northeast, coupled with rapidly economic development during this period.     

Spatial patterns and driving forces of land use change in China during the early 21st century

Land use and land cover change as the core of coupled human-environment systems has become a potential field of land change science (LCS) in the study of global environmental change. Based on remotely sensed data of land use change with a spatial resolution of 1 km × 1 km on national scale among every 5 years, this paper designed a new dynamic regionalization according to the comprehensive characteristics of land use change including regional differentiation, physical, economic, and macro-policy factors as well. Spatial pattern of land use change and its driving forces were investigated in China in the early 21st century. To sum up, land use change pattern of this period was characterized by rapid changes in the whole country. Over the agricultural zones, e.g., Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, the southeast coastal areas and Sichuan Basin, a great proportion of fine arable land were engrossed owing to considerable expansion of the built-up and residential areas, resulting in decrease of paddy land area in southern China. The development of oasis agriculture in Northwest China and the reclamation in Northeast China led to a slight increase in arable land area in northern China. Due to the “Grain for Green” policy, forest area was significantly increased in the middle and western developing regions, where the vegetation coverage was substantially enlarged, likewise. This paper argued the main driving forces as the implementation of the strategy on land use and regional development, such as policies of “Western Development”, “Revitalization of Northeast”, coupled with rapidly economic development during this period.     

On arable land changes in Shandong Province and their driving forces

IntroductionAlmost all the provinces and autonomous regions in China have experienced decrease of arable land in the processes of economic development, population growth and urbanization. The situation is more serious in Shandong Province because of the big population and being an agricultural province. From 1949 to 1999, the arable land was decreased by more than 2 million ha in this province accompanied by rapid population growth. The total population in the province in 1999 was twice of t…     

On arable land changes in Shandong Province and their driving forces

The decrease of total cultivated area and the lower per capita available arable land resource are now serious problems in Shandong Province, a major agricultural province in China. These problems will become more serious along with the further development of economy. In this paper, based on the statistical information at provincial and county levels, the changes of arable land in Shandong Province and their driving forces during the last 50 years are analyzed. The general changing trends of arable land and per capita available arable land are reducing, and the trends of decrease will continue when the economy is developing. The result of GIS spatial analysis shows that the change of the arable land use in Shandong Province has a regional difference. Eight variables having influences on cultivated land change are analyzed by principal component analysis. The results show that the dynamic development of economy, pressure of social system and progress of scientific techniques in agriculture are the main causes for cultivated land reduction. The principal factors which can be considered as driving forces for arable land change include per capita net living space, total population and per ha grain yield. By using regressive equation, along with analysis on population growth and economic development, cultivated areas in Shandong Province in 2005 and 2010 are predicted respectively. The predicted cultivated areas in Shandong will be 6435.47 thousand ha in 2005 and 6336.23 thousand ha in 2010 respectively.     

我国现阶段土地利用变化驱动力的宏观分析

土地利用的基本竞争模型是土地利用类型变化驱动力分析的理论基础。把握土地利用个体目标和社会目标的关系,尤其是它们之间的矛盾及其地区差异,是进行土地利用变化驱动力宏观分析的有效途径。工业化城市化与粮食安全之间的矛盾、农业发展与生态环境保护之间的矛盾是现阶段我国土地利用变化的基本矛盾。土地利用变化的驱动力在空间上表现出较大的差异。本文选取11项自然和社会经济指标,分省份计算了驱动力指数。结果表明:西部地区以生存型经济福利驱动和环境安全驱动为主,而东部地区以比较经济福利驱动和食物安全驱动为主     

近年来的黄土高原耕地时空变化与口粮安全耕地数量分析

基于遥感调查数据集定量分析了1990—2015年中国黄土高原地区耕地的时空变化特征和口粮绝对安全最小耕地保障面积的数量变化。结果表明:黄土高原耕地面积从1990年的192 529.65 km²至2015年的182 688.50 km²,净减少了9 841.14 km²,幅度达5.11%,其中2000—2010年的减幅最大,净减少8 483.00 km²;较大的耕地动态变化图斑主要分布于中部和西部区域,细碎的变化图斑广泛分布;耕地地类转出面积(31 875.82 km²)大于转入面积(21 815.25 km²),耕地面积的增加主要由草地和林地转化而来,主要分布在灌溉农业区和东南部平原区,减少的耕地主要转化为草地和林地,主要分布在中部沟壑区的雨养农业区。此外,该时期耕地转化为建筑用地和交通用地等人工表面的面积逐渐增加,主要分布在东南部低海拔平原地区;黄土高原口粮绝对安全所需最小耕地保障面积呈明显减少特征(从1990年的70 913.37 km²     

中国省域耕地集约利用态势与驱动力分析

基于“理性小农”、超边际经济学等理论,建立了农户耕地集约利用解释的理论框架。构建了集约利用度指数 (CII) 和驱动力模型,分析了1996-2008年中国省域的耕地集约利用程度及其影响因素。研究结果表明：我国耕地利用集约度总体大幅度提高,但地域差异明显,初步形成了第一阶梯较高集约度、第二三阶梯较低集约度的空间格局;耕地集约利用的首要贡献来自于化肥、机械、农药等省工性劳动的大量使用,其次是资本投入和劳动力;耕地自然本底条件、耕地经济收益和劳动力生产率,与耕地集约度呈正相关,而耕地非农化效益与耕地利用集约度呈负相关。基于研究结论的政策引申：加强政策引导,科学合理使用非可再生能源等省工性劳动;切实改善农业生产条件,适度规模经营,提升劳动生产率和耕地综合生产力;提高耕地经营性经济补贴标准,激励农户稳定从事农业生产的积极性。