Space-time migration of earthquakes along the North Anatolian fault zone and seismic gaps

The North Anatolian fault is a well-defined tectonic feature extending for 1400 km across Northern Turkey. The space-time distribution of seismicity and faulting of this zone has been examined with a particular emphasis on the identification of possible seismic gaps. Results suggest several conclusions with respect to the temporal and spatial distribution of seismicity. First, the earthquake activity appears not to be stationary over time. Periods of high activity in 1850–1900 and 1940 to the present bracket a period of relatively low activity in 1910–39. Second, there appears to have been a two-directional migration of earthquake epicenters away from a central region located at about 39°E longitude. The migration to the west has a higher velocity (>50 km/yr) than the migration to the east (10km/yr). The faulting associated with successive earthquakes generally abuts the previous rupture. Some existing gaps were filled by later earthquakes.At present there are two possible seismic gaps along the North Anatolian fault zone. One is at the western end of the fault, from about 29° to 30°E. Unless this is a region of ongoing aseismic creep, it could be the site of a magnitude 6 or greater earthquake. The other possible gap is at the eastern end, from about 42° to 43°E, to the west of the unexpected M=7.3 event of 24 November 1976.     

南黄海6.4级地震的短临前兆及其震源过程

研究了1996年11月9日南黄海6．4级地震前地震时空分布、应变能释放的异常变化,发现震前地震活动时空分布的异常变化清楚地反映出南黄海6．4级地震的震源过程一“三级跳跃”模式。即早期地震活动增强,形成大的孕震空区;中期在上述背景上地震活动再次向外围扩散并收缩,地震活动逐渐减弱,晚期在孕震空区内形成临震空区和临震小震条带。孕震空区缩小;晚期地震活动出现短期平静（4个月无≥2．0级地震）,显示临震“平静”异常,由R（t）图可以对64级地震的发震时间进行预测。     

Physical criterion to evaluate seismic activity associated with the seismic cycle of great interplate earthquakes

A new criterion is introduced to judge if the vicinity of the source region of a great interplate earthquake is in an active period. It is based on the stress change caused by the great earthquake. A region is regarded as being in an active period of seismicity if the occurrence rate of earthquakes on faults in the stress shadow of the great earthquake is significantly higher than in the early stage of the seismic cycle, and if the stressing rate of these faults is sufficiently low. This criterion was applied to the seismicity in the central part of southwest Japan before and after the 1944 Tonankai and 1946 Nankai earthquakes. The results show that before the 1944 Tonankai earthquake, the region was in an active period from at least 1927.The region was in a quiet period for almost50 years after the 1946 Nankai earthquake.Data after 1995 show that the region is once more in an active period of seismicity preceding the next great interplate earthquakes along the Nankai trough,although the total number of earthquakes has not yet significantly increased. Our results indicate that earthquake probability in the central part of southwest Japan will become high in the coming decades until the next great interplate earthquakes along the Nankai trough.     

1993年7—9月的全球地震动态

１９９３年第三季度，全球地震活动水平为中等偏高，明显高于上半年平均水平。日本北海道西南近海发生７．６级浅源地震，但不属于日本海沟地震。埃及西奈半岛发生５．７级地震，为今年亚欧带西段之最大地震。马里亚纳群岛发生８．１级中深震，使西北太平洋地区地震水平达到全球第一。兴都库什地区接连发生三次较大中深震，可能对我国西部地区地震活动有影响。墨西哥恰帕斯州近海发生７．３级地震，美洲带新的地震活动轮回正式开始。印度南部发生６．３级中强震，属于板内地震。     

Seismic gaps and source zones of recent large earthquakes in coastal Peru

The earthquakes of central coastal Peru occur principally in two distinct zones of shallow earthquake activity that are inland of and parallel to the axis of the Peru Trench. The interface-thrust (IT) zone includes the great thrust-fault earthquakes of 17 October 1966 and 3 October 1974. The coastal-plate interior (CPI) zone includes the great earthquake of 31 May 1970, and is located about 50 km inland of and 30 km deeper than the interface thrust zone. The occurrence of a large earthquake in one zone may not relieve elastic strain in the adjoining zone, thus complicating the application of the seismic gap concept to central coastal Peru. However, recognition of two seismic zones may facilitate detection of seismicity precursory to a large earthquake in a given zone; removal of probable CPI-zone earthquakes from plots of seismicity prior to the 1974 main shock dramatically emphasizes the high seismic activity near the rupture zone of that earthquake in the five years preceding the main shock. Other conclusions on the seismicity of coastal Peru that affect the application of the seismic gap concept to this region are: (1) Aftershocks of the great earthquakes of 1966, 1970, and 1974 occurred in spatially separated clusters. Some clusters may represent distinct small source regions triggered by the main shock rather than delimiting the total extent of main-shock rupture. The uncertainty in the interpretation of aftershock clusters results in corresponding uncertainties in estimates of stress drop and estimates of the dimensions of the seismic gap that has been filled by a major earthquake. (2) Aftershocks of the great thrust-fault earthquakes of 1966 and 1974 generally did not extend seaward as far as the Peru Trench. (3) None of the three great earthquakes produced significant teleseismic activity in the following month in the source regions of the other two earthquakes. The earthquake hypocenters that form the basis of this study were relocated using station adjustments computed by the method of joint hypocenter determination.     

Two kinds of seismic gaps

The same term seismic gaps has been used for different kinds of seismic gaps, resulting in some confusion. It is shown that there are two kinds of seismic gaps which are defined by two different features of seismic activity. One is a gap in the spatial distribution of rupture zones of the largest earthquakes in a seismic belt. This is termed a seismic gap of the first kind. A seismic gap of the first kind could be identified not only for great shallow earthquakes along plate boundaries, but also probably for smaller intra-plate earthquakes. The other is a gap in seismicity of smaller-magnitude earthquakes before larger earthquakes. This premonitory phenomenon is termed a seismic gap of the second kind. Focal regions of the largest earthquakes in an active seismic belt are frequently seismic gaps of both the first and the second kind. Some earthquakes, however, are not preceded by any appreciable premonitory gap (the second kind). This different feature in different cases may depend on the structural states of the earth's crust, such as heterogeneity.     

1976年松潘7.2级地震主要预报依据的审查及前兆异常特征的讨论

1976年8月16日四川省松潘7.2级地震,震前曾作了预报。本文介绍了这次地震预报的主要依据和地震前兆异常的主要特点。     

基于密集台阵研究龙门山断裂带南段地震空段的地震活动性

2016年12月—2018年4月间布设于汶川、芦山地震之间地震空段的密集监测台阵(LmsSGA)提供了密集的观测数据.通过拾取地震走时、初始定位,计算地方震级,得到了完备性震级为0级的地震目录.更加完备的地震目录为地震空段及周围地震活动的时空分布特征和孕震风险性评估提供了丰富的信息.重定位结果显示地震主要集中于龙门山断裂带深度为5～20km的孕震层内.地震活动频繁的汶川、芦山主震区,震源的空间分布模式与其早期余震相似,说明两次大地震的区域仍处于缓慢的应力调整阶段.青藏高原物质东向挤出受宝兴、彭灌杂岩阻挡,在两个杂岩体西北侧地震活动频繁.地震活动性分布显示汶川—茂县、映秀—北川断裂上存在一个清晰的长约30km,宽约20km的地震活动"空白"区域,与其下方因部分熔融而产生的低速体分布一致,我们推测熔融体的加温作用是导致空段内极低的地震活动性的主要原因.监测时段内仍观测到降雨变化率和地震数量呈反相关关系,再次证实了汶川—芦山地震间地震空段及邻区内季节性降雨对地震活动性存在一定调节作用.综合分析S波速度模型、历史强震活动及b值,我们推断地震空段东部的彭灌断裂中段及周围部分隐伏断层存在发生强震的风险.     

Characteristics of seismic activity before the MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake

The characteristics of spatio-temporal seismicity evolution before the Wenchuan earthquake are studied. The results mainly involve in the trend abnormal features and its relation to the Wenchuan earthquake. The western Chinese mainland and its adjacent area has been in the seismically active period since 2001, while the seismic activity shows the obvious quiescence of M≥?7.0, M≥?6.0 and M?≥5.0 earthquakes in Chinese mainland. A quiescence area with M?≥7.0 has been formed in the middle of the North-South seismic zone since 1988, and the Wenchuan earthquake occurred just within this area. There are a background seismicity gap of M?≥5.0 earthquakes and a seismogenic gap of M_L?≥4.0 earthquakes in the area of Longmenshan fault zone and its vicinity prior to the Wenchuan earthquake. The seismic activity obviously strengthened and a doughnut-shape pattern of M?≥4.6 earthquakes is formed in the middle and southern part of the North-South seismic zone after the 2003 Dayao, Yunnan, earthquake. Sichuan and its vicinity in the middle of the doughnut-shape pattern show abnormal quiescence. At the same time, the seismicity of earthquake swarms is significant and shows heterogeneity in the temporal and spatial process. A swarm gap appears in the M4.6 seismically quiet area, and the Wenchuan earthquake occurred just on the margin of the gap. In addition, in the short term before the Wenchuan earthquake, the quiescence of earthquake with M_L≥?4.0 appears in Qinghai-Tibet block and a seismic belt of M_L?≥3.0 earthquakes, with NW striking and oblique with Longmenshan fault zone, is formed.     

Evaluating Tsunami Hazard in the Northwestern Indian Ocean

We evaluate here the tsunami hazard in the northwestern Indian Ocean. The maximum regional earthquake calculated from seismic hazard analysis, was used as the characteristic earthquake for our tsunami hazard assessment. This earthquake, with a moment magnitude of M _w 8.3 and a return period of about 1000 years, was moved along the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) and its possible tsunami wave height along various coasts was calculated via numerical simulation. Both seismic hazard analysis and numerical modeling of the tsunami were validated using historical observations of the Makran earthquake and tsunami of the 1945. Results showed that the possible tsunami may reach a maximum height of 9.6 m in the region. The distribution of tsunami wave height along various coasts is presented. We recommend the development of a tsunami warning system in the region, and emphasize the value of education as a measure to mitigate the death toll of a possible tsunami in this region.     

Activation of seismicity in Central and South Asia after the Makran earthquakes: Possible acceleration of preparation of large seismic events in the Tien Shan region

Two zones of seismicity (ten events with M _w = 7.0–7.7) stretching from Makran and the Eastern Himalaya to the Central and EasternTien Shan, respectively, formed over 11 years after the great Makran earthquake of 1945 (M _w = 8.1). Two large earthquakes (M _w = 7.7) hit theMakran area in 2013. In addition, two zones of seismicity (M ≥ 5.0) occurred 1–2 years after theMakran earthquake in September 24, 2013, stretching in the north-northeastern and north-northwestern directions. Two large Nepal earthquakes struck the southern extremity of the “eastern” zone (April 25, 2015, M _w = 7.8 and May 12, 2015, M _w = 7.3), and the Pamir earthquake (December 7, 2015, M _w = 7.2) occurred near Sarez Lake eastw of the “western” zone. The available data indicate an increase in subhorizontal stresses in the region under study, which should accelerate the possible preparation of a series of large earthquakes, primarily in the area of the Central Tien Shan, between 70° and 79° E, where no large earthquakes (M _w ≥ 7.0) have occurred since 1992.     

Evolving Towards a Critical Point: A Review of Accelerating Seismic Moment/Energy Release Prior to Large and Great Earthquakes

—There is growing evidence that some proportion of large and great earthquakes are preceded by a period of accelerating seismic activity of moderate-sized earthquakes. These moderate earthquakes occur during the years to decades prior to the occurrence of the large or great event and over a region larger than its rupture zone. The size of the region in which these moderate earthquakes occur scales with the size of the ensuing mainshock, at least in continental regions. A number of numerical simulation studies of faults and fault systems also exhibit similar behavior. The combined observational and simulation evidence suggests that the period of increased moment release in moderate earthquakes signals the establishment of long wavelength correlations in the regional stress field. The central hypothesis in the critical point model for regional seismicity is that it is only during these time periods that a region of the earth’s crust is truly in or near a "self-organized critical" (SOC) state, such that small earthquakes are capable of cascading into much larger events. The occurrence of a large or great earthquake appears to dissipate a sufficient proportion of the accumulated regional strain to destroy these long wavelength stress correlations and bring the region out of a SOC state. Continued tectonic strain accumulation and stress transfer during smaller earthquakes eventually re-establishes the long wavelength stress correlations that allow for the occurrence of larger events. These increases in activity occur over longer periods and larger regions than quiescence, which is usually observed within the rupture zone of a coming large event. The two phenomena appear to have different physical bases and are not incompatible with one another.     

RELOCATION OF MAIN SHOCK AND AFTERSHOCKS OF THE 2014 YINGJIANG MS5.6 AND MS6.1 EARTHQUAKES IN YUNNAN

Yingjiang area is located in the China-Burma border,the Sudian-Xima arc tectonic belt,which lies in the collision zone between the Indian and Eurasian plates.The Yingjiang earthquake occurring on May 30th,2014 is the only event above M_S6.0 in this region since seismicity can be recorded.In this study,we relocated the Yingjiang M_S5.6 and M_S6.1 earthquake sequences by using the double-difference method.The results show that two main shocks are located in the east of the Kachang-Dazhuzhai Fault,the northern segment of the Sudian-Xima Fault.Compared with the Yingjiang M_S5.6 earthquake,the Yingjiang M_S6.1 earthquake is nearer to the Kachang-Dazhuzhai Fault.The aftershocks of the two earthquakes are distributed along the strike direction of the Kachang-Dazhuzhai Fault (NNE).The rupture zone of the main shock of Yingjiang M_S6.1 earthquake extends northward approximately 5km.The aftershocks of two earthquakes are mainly located in the eastern side of the Kachang-Dazhuzhai Fault with a significant asymmetry along the fault,which differ from the characteristics of the aftershock distribution of the strike-slip earthquake.It may indicate that the Yingjiang earthquakes are conjugate rupture earthquakes.The non-double-couple components are relatively high in the moment tensor.We speculate that the Yingjiang earthquakes are related to the fractured zone caused by the long-term seismic activity and heat effect in the deep between Kachang-Dazhuzhai Fault and its neighboring secondary faults.Aftershock distribution of the Yingjiang M_S6.1 earthquake on the southern area crosses a secondary fault on the right of the Kachang-Dazhuzhai Fault,suggesting that the coseismic rupture of the secondary fault may be triggered by the dynamic stress of the main shock.     

A parametric representation of Kamchatka seismicity over time

This paper presents a set of seismicity parameters that are estimated at the Kamchatka Branch of the Geophysical Service, Russian Academy of Sciences based on the regional catalog data with the purpose of routine monitoring of the current seismic situation in the region. The focus is on the identification of changes in the seismic regime (seismic quiescences and seismicity increases) in earth volumes adjacent to the maturing rupture zone of a large earthquake. The techniques we use include estimation of the seismicity level for the region using the SOUS’09 scale; calculation of the variations in the slope of the recurrence relation, identification of statistically significant anomalies in the slope using the Z test, and calculation of the seismic activity A ₁₀; monitoring the RTL parameter and variations in the area of seismogenic ruptures; using the Z test to detect areas of statistically significant decreases in the rate of seismicity; and identification of earthquake clusters. We furnish examples of such anomalies in these seismicity parameters prior to large earthquakes in Kamchatka.     

鲜水河断裂带地震活动特征及强震发生随时间增长概率

作者等仔细分析了鲜水河断裂带从１７２５年到现在的地震资料，并利用乌莫洛夫Ｔ─Ｓ、Ｍ为参数的作图法及强震发生随时间增长概率，绘制了地震活动图件及地震发生概率曲线以及Ｍ─Ｔ图和鲜水河断裂应变释放曲线。根据这些资料可以清楚地看出鲜水河断裂带自１７２５年到现在可分为两个大的活动周期，其中６．０级以上地震有由康定依次向甘孜迁移的特点。在每一个大的地震活动周期中，地震基本上两次重复由康定向甘孜迁移的过程，而且较强地震多发生在第二次迁移过程中，１９８２年甘孜地震标志着断裂带在第二幕地震活动高潮中，中强震已经完成了最后一次由断裂带东南端向西北端迁移的过程。同时考虑到断裂带应变释放曲线的特征，估计鲜水河断裂带目前已进入新的平静阶段。前两个大的活动周期之间，平静了近一个世纪。按历史上地震定向迁移规律，估计在新的活动期地震仍将从康定方向开始，逐步向甘孜发展。     

云南地区强震活动过程中的调制比、b值

通过对云南地区1900－2000年，反映地壳介质状态的地震调制比、b值的系统研究，探讨了云南地区强震不同活动阶段的中强地震调制比、b值的活动规律，以及与云南地区强震活动规律的关系，并从地壳介质状态反应的孕震机理作出相应的剖析。结果表明中强地震的调制化、b值在强震活跃期与平静表现出有规律的变化：在强震活跃期，中强地震Rm值经过下降－上升－下降－上升过程，完成一次准周期性变化过程，结束活跃期；强震平静调制比Rm开始时高，结束时低；在活跃期与其后的平静期，b值形成一个有规律的低－高－低周期性变化；Rm、b值的最大值都出现于平静期；显示出不论是强震活跃期与平静期，中强地震的活动与强震孕育是密切相关的。     

龙陵-澜沧新生断裂带地震破裂分段与地震预测研究

龙陵 -澜沧新生断裂带的地震活动具频度高、强度大、周期短等特征 ,并以双震或震群型为主。断裂带由多条次级新生断层组成 ,呈斜列或共轭式展布 ,根据结构、规模、地震活动差异等因素把断裂带划分为 4个一级段、13个二级段 ,其中有 4个二级段又可划分出 8个三级段。历史上发生过大震、强震并有地震断层伴生的断层段为地震破裂单元 ;断裂带上晚第四纪有活动并有古地震事件 ,但无历史地震记载的地段为断层闭锁单元 ;次级断层之间的阶区或连接点为障碍体单元。从地震破裂特征分析 ,断裂带由破裂、闭锁、障碍体单元组成 ,根据地震、古地震、活断层、断层阶区的活动规律 ,断裂带可划分出 9个破裂单元、8个闭锁单元、10个障碍体单元。三者之间呈迁移、触发和转换能量的关系。根据这些关系和地震构造标志 ,对断裂带上未来可能发生大震、强震、中强震的地区分别作了预测。预测的危险区有 9个 ,其中大震区 1个 (永康 -永德地区 ) ,强震区 3个 (马站、石灰窑、酒房-勐混 ) ,中强震区 5个 (下顺江、里仁、大岗山、南明 -澜沧、勐遮     

Recent crustal deformation and the earthquake cycle along the Ecuador-Colombia subduction zone

Recent results from Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements show deformation along the coast of Ecuador and Colombia that can be linked to the rupture zone of the earthquake in 1979. A 3D elastic boundary element model is used to simulate crustal deformation observed by GPS campaigns in 1991, 1994, 1996, and 1998. Deformation in Ecuador can be explained best by 50% apparent locking on the subduction interface. Although there have not been any historic large earthquakes (M_w>7) south of the 1906 earthquake rupture zone, 50% apparent elastic locking is necessary to model the deformation observed there. In Colombia, only 30% apparent elastic locking is occurring along the subduction interface in the 1979 earthquake rupture zone (M_w 8.2), and no elastic locking is necessary to explain the crustal deformation observed at two GPS sites north of there. There is no evidence from seismicity or plate geometry that plate coupling on the subduction zone is reduced in Colombia. However, simple viscoelastic models suggest that the apparent reduction in elastic locking can be explained entirely by the response of a viscous upper mantle to the 1979 earthquake. These results suggest that elastic strain accumulation is occurring evenly throughout the study area, but postseismic relaxation masks the true total strain rate.     

澜沧—耿马地震短期和临震阶段的地震活动特征

本文主要分析了澜沧－耿马地震震前短临阶段的地震活动特征，包括ｂ值、震群、临震的小震活动等，文中也简要回顾了大同地震前的地震活动特征。同时探讨了地震系列的算法复杂性在实际震例中应用的可能，表现为在时间分布上强震前大小地震的有序性增加，随机性降低的过程。目的是寻找强震前一定时空范围内，中期向短期阶段过渡及短临阶段普遍存在的地震活动图象的演化信息。     

大同—阳高6.1级地震活动背景

本文从较大时空范围研究了１９８９年大同－阳高６．１级地震的地震活动性背景，认为大同－阳高地震不是一次孤立的地震事件，是大同盆地历史６级以上地震活动的继续和必然。在时间进程中它们受华北地震区和山西地震带强震活动周期的制约，空间上与北三省交汇区中强地震成丛活动密切相关。大同－阳高６．１级、５．８级地震以及此期间的侯马４．９级、析州５．１级地震是山西地震带中强地震即将活跃的一个迹象，也是华北区域应力场增