华北地区地震活动趋势分析

引言华北地区是中国东部强震活动的主要地区 ,同时又是历史地震资料记载时间较早且较为连续的地区。对研究该区地震活动时空演变特征提供了完整翔实的资料。前人研究表明 ,地震活动在时间上的分布具有周期性和间歇性 ,在空间分布上具有平静区和丛集区以及地震空段。我们以这些基本观点 ,讨论华北地区地震时空基本特征 ,进而研究强震活动的危险背景。我们以 3 0°～ 4 0°N,1 1 4°～ 1 2 3°E为研究区 ,历史地震选用中国地震简目为基础资料 ,震级下限 M≥ 6;近代地震取自中国地震局分析预报中心编制的地震目录和中国地震月报目录。1　华北…     

鄂尔多斯块体周缘强震活动时空特征及地震危险性分析

采用公元 4 0 0～ 2 0 0 0年MS ≥ 6 .0地震资料 ,研究鄂尔多斯块体周缘 ( 34°～ 4 2°N ,1 0 4 .5°～ 1 1 4 .5°E)强震活动时空特征 .结果表明 ,鄂尔多斯周缘强震活动具有时间分期性、时空迁移有序性、填空性与重复性、大地震等间隔分布特点 .地震危险性分析表明下一个 7级地震可能发生在北部边缘的阴山地震带两端 .     

地震趋势分析法在台湾地区的应用

在北纬 2 1°～ 2 6° ,东经 119°～ 12 3°内 ,依据板块运动、地体构造界线、活动断层分析和强震震中分布四个因素 ,绘制台湾地区的地震地体构造区分图 ;将台湾地区分成东西两个地震区 ;E1～E4、W1～W4等共八个地震带。根据强震幕式分析、地震活动性水平分析、地震频次与缺震异常分析和空区与条带分析四个地震趋势分析步骤 ,分析 2 0 0 1年和 2 0 0 2年台湾地区的中强地震趋势。实际地震结果表明 ,这种地震趋势分析方法在台湾地区有非常好的应用效果。     

2003年12月首都圈地区ML≥2.0地震动态

根据中国地震局分析预报中心提供的资料 ,2 0 0 3年 1 2月华北地区 ( 33 0°～ 4 2 0°N ,1 1 1 0°～ 1 2 5 0°E)共发生ML≥ 3 0地震 5次 (见表 1 ) ,1 1日 2 2时 4 8分塘沽ML4 0地震是本月显著的事件。本月地震频次高于上月。参考 1 992年以来的月平均地震频次 ,1 2月处于中等偏低水平 ,地震活动月能量释放处于中等状态 ,震中分布在河北沧东断裂带和山西系舟山北麓断裂带。表 1　 2 0 0 3年 12月华北地区ML≥ 3 0地震序号发　震　时　刻　　年月日时分秒震中位置φN/°　　　　λE/°震级ML震　中0 12 0 0 3 12 11T2 2 4 8 4 …     

2002年7月华北地区ML≥3.0地震动态

根据中国地震局分析预报中心提供的资料 ,2 0 0 2年 7月华北地区 (3 3 .0°～ 42 .0°N,111.0°～12 5 .0°E)共发生 ML≥ 3 .0地震 9次 (见表 1) ,2 3日 2 0时 48分黄海 (3 5 .6°N,12 2 .3°E) ML 5 .1地震是本月最显著的事件。本月地震频度远高于上月 ,参考 1992年以来的月平均地震频次 ,7月处于中等水平 ,地震活动月能量释放处于中等偏低状态 ,震中主要分布在华北地区东部。表 1　 2 0 0 2年 7月华北地区 ML≥ 3.0地震序号发　震　时　刻　　年月日时分秒　震中位置φN/°　　　　λE/°震级ML震　中0 12 0 0 2 - 0 7- 0 8T 0 5- …     

通过分区分析预测华北地震危险区

将华北地区 (北纬 3 7°～ 41 .5°,东经 1 1 2°～ 1 2 0°)以 5 0 km× 5 0 km为单位划分成 1 3 0个小区域 ,统计每区内近 1 0年 (1 990年～ 2 0 0 0年 8月 )来所发生的地震。从时间角度分析近十年内每年各区地震宏观走向情况 ;从空间角度分析每区十年内地震活动情况。将具有类似特征的区域归为一类 ,通过分析它们的形变背景推测这些区域的地震活动情况。     

2001年1月华北地区ML≥3.0地震动态

根据中国地震局分析预报中心提供的资料 ,2 0 0 1年 1月华北地区 (33.0°～ 42 .0°N,111.0°～12 5 .0°E)共发生 ML≥ 3.0地震 8次 (见表 1) ,其中 1月 3日 0 5时 31分发生在丰南的 ML 4.0地震是本月最显著事件。本月地震频度与 2 0 0 0年 12月相比略有升高 ,参考 1992年以来的月平均地震频次 ,1月为中等水平 ,地震活动月能量释放也处于中等略低状态 ,震中主要分布在华北东部地区及相邻海域表 1　 2 0 0 1年 1月华北地区 ML≥ 3.0地震序号发　震　时　刻　　年月日时分秒　震中位置φN/°　　　　λE/°震级ML震　中0 12 0 0 1- 0 1-…     

2002年6月华北地区ML≥3.0地震动态

根据中国地震局分析预报中心提供的资料 ,2 0 0 2年 6月华北地区 ( 3 3 .0°～ 42 .0°N,1 1 1 .0°～1 2 5.0°E)共发生 ML≥ 3 .0地震 4次 (见表 1 ) ,1 7日 0 5时 58分海城 ML 3 .9地震是本月最显著的事件。本月地震频度低于上月。参考 1 992年以来的月平均地震频次 ,6月处于偏低水平 ,地震活动月能量释放处于偏低状态 ,震中主要分布在华北地区东部。表 1　 2 0 0 2年 6月华北地区 ML≥ 3.0地震序号发　震　时　刻　　年月日时分秒　震中位置φN/°　　　　 λE/°震级ML震　中0 12 0 0 2 - 0 6 - 0 5 T2 3- 36 - 194 0 .6 12 2 .9…     

2002年12月华北地区ML≥3.0地震动态

根据中国地震局分析预报中心提供的资料 ,2 0 0 2年 1 2月华北地区 (33 0°～ 42 0°N ,1 1 1 0°～ 1 2 5 0°E)共发生ML≥ 3 0地震 5次 (见表 1 ) ,2 5日 1 8时 2 9分宁晋ML4 2地震是本月显著的事件。本月地震频度略低于上月 ,参考 1 992年以来的月平均地震频次 ,1 2月处于中等偏低水平 ,地震活动月能量释放处于中等偏低状态 ,震中主要分布在河北邢台地区和廊坊以及东部海域。表 1　 2 0 0 2年 12月华北地区ML≥ 3 0地震序号发　震　时　刻　年　月　日时　分　秒　震中位置φN/°　　　　λE/°震级ML震　中0 12 0 0 2 12 …     

滇西地区地震活动图象与近用强震危险性分析

本文着重研究了滇西地区（Ｎ２３．５°～２８°；Ｅ９７．５°～１０１．５°Ｅ）地震活动概况、地震时空展布、地震活动特点以及震源深度分布。并对近期滇西地区强震危险性进行探讨和分析。     

Source processes of large (M≥6.5) earthquakes of the Southeastern Caribbean (1926–1960)

We have conducted body waveform modeling studies of 13 historic earthquakes to provide a better understanding of the long-term spatial and temporal pattern of seismicity and deformation within a region extending from Barbuda, Lesser Antilles, to Cumana, Venezuela. Our results suggest that shallow earthquakes (<50 km deep) along the South American-Caribbean plate margin reflect right-lateral and extensional deformation. Intermediate depth events (100 km) show left-lateral strike-slip motion beneath the Paria peninsula of Venezuela. In the Lesser Antilles the 1960 Barbuda and 1946 Martinique earthquakes appear to be interplate thrust events, however the greatest moment release in the region has occurred at intermediate depths as a mixture of normal and strike-slip faulting, generally along trends oblique to the arc. The deformation rate estimated from the seismic moment release between 1926 and 1960 is only 1 to 10% of the estimated plate convergence rate for the region.     

世界早期历史地震史料的比较研究(待续)

通过对各国地震最早记载及其背景性证据的分析;用时间差分序列的双对数法,进行了地震记载资料丰富程度的探讨;研究了3700年前的全球地震活跃期;给出了公元前2221年至公元1900年105个国家(地区)的资料。     

Faulting processes of the 1956 San Miguel,Baja California,earthquake sequence

Body waveform modeling is used to determine the source processes of three large earthquakes (magnitude 6.8, 6.4, 6.3) occurring between February 9 and 15, 1956 along the San Miguel fault in northern Baja California, Mexico. Results of the modeling suggest that the mainshock on February 9 was responsible for the 20 km of surface faulting observed during the sequence. Although previous researchers have suggested a complex rupture history for the mainshock, uncertainty estimates of source-time function shape indicate single or double source models fit the observed waveforms equally well. The February 15 aftershock, however, appears to have consisted of two events. Locations and focal mechanisms obtained for the three events suggest that the rupture process may have been controlled by cross faults to the main trace of the San Miguel fault. The good correlation between source parameter information and the surficial geology/geometry of the San Miguel fault zone demonstrates the usefulness of waveform modeling studies in unravelling the complexities of historic multi-event earthquake sequences.     

张家口地区地震活动与地质构造关系

依据张家口地区1996年1月1日至2015年12月31日发生的1 748个地震的震中分布,结合该区地震地质、构造等研究成果,通过对该区历史上破坏性地震和大量中小地震的时空分布特征进行分析,发现地震多集中在几组活动断层交汇区及活动断层两端、拐点、分支、分叉部位和断陷盆地边界(沉降幅度差较大地区)部位,可能是因为这些部位是应力易集中地区。该结论可为张家口地区地震预报提供初步背景参考。     

The Applicability of Modern Methods of Earthquake Location

We compare traditional methods of seismic event location, based on phase pick data and analysis of events one-at-a-time, with a modern method based on cross-correlation measurements and joint analysis of numerous events. In application to four different regions representing different types of seismicity and monitored with networks of different station density, we present preliminary results indicating what fraction of seismic events may be amenable to analysis with modern methods. The latter can supply locations ten to a hundred times more precise than traditional methods. Since good locations of seismic sources are needed as the starting point for so many user communities, and potentially can be provided due to current improvements in easily-accessible computational capability, we advocate wide-scale application of modern methods in the routine production of bulletins of seismicity. This effort requires access to waveform archives from well-calibrated stations that have long operated at the same location.     

Probability-consistent earthquakes and probability-consistent conservative earthquakes

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Ductility demand spectra for multiple near- and far-fault earthquakes

This study presents ductility demand spectra for single degree of freedom (SDOF) systems under multiple near- and far-fault seismic ground motions. The main innovation has to do with the quantification of the seismic sequence effect directly into ductility demands, a phenomenon which has not been studied in the past. Due to lack of real seismic sequences records, this paper examines only artificial sequences, where they have been generated by a rational and random combination of real single events. A statistical investigation of more than 120 millions dynamic inelastic analyses is conducted to obtain expressions for the ductility demands, in terms of the period of vibration, the viscous damping, the post-yield stiffness and the force reduction factor. It is found that due to the seismic sequence effect, it is certainly insufficient to consider only the ‘design earthquake’, since this traditional hypothesis leads to underestimated ductility demands and therefore to underestimated structural damage.     

云南中强震序列类型的划分及其空间分布特征

依据公元886～2009年云南Ms≥5.0地震资料,分析云南地区中强以上地震序列类型早期划分及空间分布特征.结果认为:云南地区Ms≥5.0地震序列以主余型为主,其次为多震型;主余型与多震型地震散布于云南省各个地区,孤立型主要分布于东川、玉溪、盈江等地区.各小区域的地震震型特点为:滇西北地区与云南地区地震类型比例一致;小...     

Application of the extreme value approaches to the apparent magnitude distribution of the earthquakes

The apparent magnitude of an earthquakey is defined as the observed magnitude value and differs from the true magnitudem because of the experimental noisen. Iff(m) is the density distribution of the magnitudem, and ifg(n) is the density distribution of the errorn, then the density distribution ofy is simply computed by convolvingf andg, i.e.h(y)=f*g.If the distinction betweeny andm is not realized, any statistical analysis based on the frequency-magnitude relation of the earthquake is bound to produce questionable results. In this paper we investigate the impact of the apparent magnitude idea on the statistical methods that study the earthquake distribution by taking into account only the largest (or extremal) earthquakes. We use two approaches: the Gumbel method based on Gumbel theory (Gumbel, 1958), and the Poisson method introduced byEpstein andLomnitz (1966). Both methods are concerned with the asymptotic properties of the magnitude distributions. Therefore, we study and compare the asymptotic behaviour of the distributionsh(y) andf(m) under suitable hypotheses on the nature of the experimental noise. We investigate in detail two dinstinct cases: first, the two-side limited symmetrical noise, i.e. the noise that is bound to assume values inside a limited region, and second, the normal noise, i.e. the noise that is distributed according to a normal symmetric distribution.We further show that disregarding the noise generally leads to biased results and that, in the framework of the apparent magnitude, the Poisson approach preserves its usefulness, while the Gumbel method gives rise to a curious paradox.     

Reventador Volcano 2005: Eruptive activity inferred from seismo-acoustic observation

Reventador Volcano entered an eruptive phase in 2005 which included a wide variety of seismic and infrasonic activity. These are described and illustrated: volcano-tectonic, harmonic tremor, drumbeats, chugging and spasmodic tremor, long period and very long period events. The recording of this simultaneous activity on an array of three broadband, seismo-acoustic instruments provides detailed information of the state of the conduit and vent during this phase of volcanic eruption. Quasi-periodic tremor at Reventador is similar to that observed at other volcanoes and may be used as an indicator of vent aperture. Variations in the vibration modes of the volcano, frequency fluctuations and rapid temporal fluctuations suggest the influx of new material, choking of the vent and possible modification of the conduit geometry during explosions and effusion over a period of six weeks.