Operational earthquake loss forecasting: a retrospective analysis of some recent Italian seismic sequences

Operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) relies on real-time monitoring of seismic activity in an area of interest to provide constant (e.g., daily) updates of the expected number of events exceeding a certain magnitude threshold in a given time window (e.g., 1 week). It has been demonstrated that the rates from OEF can be used to estimate expected values of the seismic losses in the same time interval OEF refers to. This is a procedure recently defined as operational earthquake loss forecasting (OELF), which may be the basis for rational short-term seismic risk assessment and management. In Italy, an experimental OELF system, named MANTIS-K, is currently under testing. It is based on weekly rates of earthquakes exceeding magnitude (M) 4, which are updated once a day or right after the occurrence in the country of an M 3.5+ earthquake. It also relies on large-scale structural vulnerability and exposure data, which serve to the system to provide continuously the weekly expected number of: (1) collapsed buildings, (2) displaced residents, and (3) casualties. While the probabilistic basis of MANTIS-K was described in previous work, in this study OELF is critically discussed with respect to three recent Italian seismic sequences. The aim is threefold: (1) illustrating all the features of the OELF system in place; (2) providing insights to evaluate whether if it would have been a useful additional tool for short-term management; (3) recognizing common features, if any, among the losses computed for different sequences.     

Direct displacement loss assessment of existing RC buildings pre- and post-seismic retrofitting: A case study

The seismic retrofitting of a high-rise RC building, recently realized in Italy using the seismic isolation technique, is examined in terms of cost of the intervention (compared to the replacement cost of the building), seismic performances and expected benefits (compared to the building in the as-built configuration), expressed in terms of reduction of direct and indirect seismic losses in case of attainment of different limit states.In the paper, the comparison of the building performance before and after seismic retrofitting is performed in terms of Expected Annual Loss (EAL), applying a direct displacement-based loss assessment approach. The results show a considerable reduction of the EAL (approximately of 70%), passing from the as-built to the retrofitted configuration. The time needed to get the balance between costs of the intervention and benefits due to EAL reduction turns out to be of the order of 13 years.     

Simplified estimation of the expected annual loss of reinforced concrete buildings

Performance‐based earthquake engineering procedures have now developed to the point that it is possible to evaluate a range of possible decision variables, including the expected annual monetary loss (EAL). Quantification of the EAL is considered to be particularly useful because it could assist with the identification of effective design and retrofit measures that consider seismic performance over a range of intensity levels. Recognizing, however, that existing procedures for the evaluation of EAL tends to be quite time consuming, this paper builds on a recent proposal to use simplified limit state loss versus intensity relationships to compute EAL via a closed‐form equation, without the need to compile an inventory of damageable components and with freedom in the choice of structural analysis method. Various developments to the simplified approach are made in this paper to allow consideration of loss thresholds, non‐uniform damage distributions and the impact of differences in seismic performance in orthogonal directions. In addition, means of accounting for uncertainties in the simplified EAL assessment are described. The work has focused on the assessment of EAL for reinforced concrete frame buildings with details representative of construction practice adopted in Italy in the 1950s through to the early 1970s. By comparing loss assessment results obtained using a refined methodology with those obtained using the new guidelines developed here for two case study buildings, it is concluded that the simplified approach works well. Future research should therefore aim to further validate the approach and extend it to other building typologies and construction eras. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Earthquake hazard and risk assessment based on Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: Greater Caucasus and Crimea

We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on morphostructural analysis, pattern recognition, and the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), which generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter relationship making use of naturally fractal distribution of earthquake sources of different size in a seismic region. The USLE stands for an empirical relationship log₁₀N(M, L)?=?A?+?B·(5 – M)?+?C·log₁₀L, where N(M, L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within a seismically prone area of linear dimension L. We use parameters A, B, and C of USLE to estimate, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at seismically prone nodes of the morphostructural scheme of the region under study, then map the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters (e.g., peak ground acceleration, PGA, or macro-seismic intensity). After a rigorous verification against the available seismic evidences in the past (usually, the observed instrumental PGA or the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures (e.g., those based on census of population, buildings inventory). The methodology of seismic hazard and risk assessment is illustrated by application to the territory of Greater Caucasus and Crimea.     

Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo,Egypt

The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m _b  = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is “what if this earthquake is repeated today.” In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that “the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times” in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety and collapse prevention in future earthquakes, a five-step road map has been purposed.     

Study on seismic performance enhancement in bridges based on factorial analysis

The seismic performance of bridges depends on the ductile behavior of its column, as the deck and other substructural components except pile foundations are normally designed to be elastic to facilitate bridge retrofitting.Codes such as AASHTO, Caltrans, IRC: 112 etc.give guidelines for the seismic performance enhancement of columns through ductile detailing.In the present study, a methodology for the seismic performance enhancement of bridges is discussed by using a "Parameter-Based Influence Factor"(PIF) developed from factorial analysis.The parameters considered in the factorial analysis are: percentage of longitudinal reinforcement(P_t), compressive strength of concrete(f'_c), yield strength of steel(f_y), spacing of lateral ties(S) and column height(H).The influence of each parameter and their combination on the limit states considered is estimated.Pushover analysis is used to evaluate the capacity of columns, considering shear failure criteria.A total of 243(3~5 combinations) analysis results are compiled to develop ‘PIF’ used in the performance enhancement process.The study also encompasses other sub-objectives such as evaluating the discrepancies in using the Importance Factor(I) in designing bridges of varied functional importance; and estimating the aspect ratio and slenderness ratio values of bridge columns for its initial sizing.     

Force reduction factors for steel buildings with welded and post-tensioned connections

The seismic responses of steel buildings with perimeter moment resisting frames (MRF) with welded connections (WC) are estimated and compared to those of similar buildings with semi-rigid post-tensioned connections (PC). The responses are estimated in terms of ductility reduction factors (R _µ,), ductility demands (µ _G ) and force reduction factors (R). Two steel model buildings, which were modeled as complex-3D-MDOF systems, were used in the study. Results indicate that the reduction magnitude of global response parameters is larger than that of local response parameters, contradicting the same reduction implicitly assumed in the static equivalent lateral force procedure, implying that non-conservative design may result. The value of 8 for R, suggested in many codes for ductile steel MRF, and the value of 1 suggested in the well known Newmark and Hall procedure for the ratio of R to µ _G , cannot be justified. The reason for this is that SDOF systems were used to model actual structures, where higher mode effects, energy dissipation and structural overstrength weren’t explicitly considered. The codes should be more transparent regarding the magnitude and the components involved in the force reduction factors. The seismic performance of steel buildings with PC may be superior to that of the buildings with WC, since their force reduction factors are larger and their ductility demands smaller, implying that PC buildings could be designed for smaller lateral seismic forces. The conclusions of this paper are for the particular structural systems and models considered. Much more research is needed to reach more general conclusions.     

Necessity and adequacy of near-source factors for not-so-tall fixed-base buildings

Nonlinear response history analyses and use of strong ground motion data including near-field effects has become a common practice in both performance based design of tall buildings and design of base-isolated buildings. On the other hand, ordinary buildings are commonly analysed via response spectrum analysis following the rules of conventional seismic codes, most of which do not take near-field effects into account. This study evaluates the necessity and the adequacy of near-source factors for ordinary fixed-base buildings that are not specifically classified as tall, by comparing dynamic responses of 3, 8, and 15-story benchmark buildings obtained via(1) linear time history analyses using 220 record components from 13 historical earthquakes and 45 synthetic earthquake records of different magnitudes and fault distances and(2) response spectrum analyses in accordance with the Turkish Earthquake Code 2007-representing seismic codes not taking near-field effects into account- and the Uniform Building Code 1997 which takes near-field effects into account via near-source factors that amplify design response spectrum. It is shown that near-source factors are crucial for the safe design of not-so-tall ordinary fixed-base buildings but those defined in UBC97 may still not be adequate for those located in the vicinity of the fault.     

An alternative approach for the seismic rehabilitation of existing RC buildings using seismic isolation

Usually, buildings with seismic isolation are designed to comply with an operational building performance level after strong earthquakes. This approach, however, may limit the use of seismic isolation for the seismic rehabilitation of existing buildings with low lateral strength or substandard details, because it often requires invasive strengthening measures in the superstructure or the use of expensive custom‐made devices. In this paper, an alternative approach for the seismic rehabilitation of existing buildings with seismic isolation, based on the acceptance of limited plastic deformations in the superstructure under strong earthquakes, is proposed and then applied to a real case study, represented by a four‐storey RC frame building. Nonlinear response‐time histories analyses of an accurate model of the case‐study building are carried out to evaluate the seismic performances of the structure, comparing different rehabilitation strategies with and without seismic isolation. Initial costs of the intervention and possible (future) repair costs are then estimated. Based on the results of this study, values of the behavior factor (i.e. response modification factor) higher than those adopted in the current codes for base‐isolated buildings are tentatively proposed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Conceptual seismic design in performance-based earthquake engineering

A principal aspect of seismic design is the verification of performance limit states, which help ensure satisfactory behaviour within a performance-based earthquake engineering framework. However, it is increasingly acknowledged that while ensuring life safety is a suitable basic design requirement, more meaningful metrics of seismic performance exist. Expected annual loss (EAL) has gained attention in recent years but tends to be limited to seismic assessment. This article proposes a novel conceptual design framework that employs EAL as a design tool and requires very little building information at the design outset. This means that designers may commence from a definition of required EAL and arrive at a number of feasible structural solutions without the need for any detailed design calculations or numerical analysis. This works by transforming the building performance definition to a design solution space using a number of simplifying assumptions. A suitable structural response backbone is subsequently determined and used to identify feasible building typologies and associated structural geometries. The assumptions made to implement such a conceptual design framework are discussed and justified herein followed by a case study application. This proposed design framework is intended to form the first step in seismic design to identify suitable typologies and layouts before subsequent member detailing and design verification. This way, engineers, architects, and clients can make more informed decisions that target certain performance goals at the beginning of design before further refinement.     

Spatio-temporal assessments of rockburst hazard combining <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis> values and seismic tomography

A better understanding of rockburst precursors and high stress distribution characteristics can allow for higher extraction efficiency with reduced safety concerns. Taking the rockburst that occurred on 30 January 2015 in the Sanhejian Coal Mine, Jiangsu Province, China, as an example, the mechanism of rockburst development in a roadway was analysed, and a combined method involving b values and seismic velocity tomography was used to assess the rockburst in both time and space, respectively. The results indicate that before the rockburst, b values dropped significantly from 0.829 to 0.373. Moreover, a good agreement between a significant decrease in b values and the increase of the number of strong tremors was found. Using seismic tomography, two rockburst risk areas were determined where the maximum velocity, maximum velocity anomaly and maximum velocity gradient anomaly were 6 km/s, 0.14 and 0.13, respectively. The high-velocity regions corresponded well with the rockburst zone and large seismic event distributions. The combination of b values and seismic tomography is proven to have been a promising tool for use in evaluating rockburst risk during underground coal mining.     

Computational and rapid expected annual loss estimation methodologies for structures

Expected annual loss (EAL), which can be expressed in dollars, is an effective way of communicating the seismic vulnerability of constructed facilities to owners and insurers. A simplified method for estimating EAL without conducting time‐consuming non‐linear dynamic analyses is presented. Relationships between intensity measures and engineering demand parameters resulting from a pushover analysis and a modified capacity‐spectrum method are combined with epistemic and aleatory uncertainties to arrive at a probabilistic demand model. Damage measures are established to determine thresholds for damage states from which loss ratios can be defined. Financial implications due to damage can then be quantified in the form of EAL by integrating total losses for all likely earthquake scenarios. This rapid loss estimation method is verified through the computationally intensive incremental dynamic analysis, with the results processed using a distribution‐free methodology. To illustrate the application of the proposed method, the seismic vulnerability of two highway bridge piers is compared; one bridge is traditionally designed for ductility while the other is based on an emerging damage avoidance design (DAD) philosophy. The DAD pier is found to have a clear advantage over the conventional pier; the EAL of the DAD pier is less than 20% of its ductile counterpart. This is shown to be primarily due to its inherent damage‐free behaviour for small to medium earthquake intensities, whose contribution to EAL is significantly more than that of very rare events. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development of fragility curves by incorporating new spectral shape indicators and a weighted damage index: case study of steel braced frames in the city of Mashhad,Iran

In this study, strong ground motion record(SGMR) selection based on Eta(η) as a spectral shape indicator has been investigated as applied to steel braced frame structures. A probabilistic seismic hazard disaggregation analysis for the definition of the target Epsilon(ε) and the target Eta(η) values at different hazard levels is presented, taking into account appropriately selected SGMR's. Fragility curves are developed for different limit states corresponding to three representative models of typical steel braced frames having significant irregularities in plan, by means of a weighted damage index. The results show that spectral shape indicators have an important effect on the predicted median structural capacities, and also that the parameter η is a more robust predictor of damage than searching for records with appropriate ε values.     

Probabilistic economic seismic loss estimation in steel buildings using post‐tensioned moment‐resisting frames and viscous dampers

The potential of post‐tensioned self‐centering moment‐resisting frames (SC‐MRFs) and viscous dampers to reduce the economic seismic losses in steel buildings is evaluated. The evaluation is based on a prototype steel building designed using four different seismic‐resistant frames: (i) conventional moment resisting frames (MRFs); (ii) MRFs with viscous dampers; (iii) SC‐MRFs; or (iv) SC‐MRFs with viscous dampers. All frames are designed according to Eurocode 8 and have the same column/beam cross sections and similar periods of vibration. Viscous dampers are designed to reduce the peak story drift under the design basis earthquake (DBE) from 1.8% to 1.2%. Losses are estimated by developing vulnerability functions according to the FEMA P‐58 methodology, which considers uncertainties in earthquake ground motion, structural response, and repair costs. Both the probability of collapse and the probability of demolition because of excessive residual story drifts are taken into account. Incremental dynamic analyses are conducted using models capable to simulate all limit states up to collapse. A parametric study on the effect of the residual story drift threshold beyond which is less expensive to rebuild a structure than to repair is also conducted. It is shown that viscous dampers are more effective than post‐tensioning for seismic intensities equal or lower than the maximum considered earthquake (MCE). Post‐tensioning is effective in reducing repair costs only for seismic intensities higher than the DBE. The paper also highlights the effectiveness of combining post‐tensioning and supplemental viscous damping by showing that the SC‐MRF with viscous dampers achieves significant repair cost reductions compared to the conventional MRF. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of the impact of large scale seismic retrofitting strategies through the application of a vulnerability-based approach on traditional masonry buildings

The buildings’ capacity to maintain minimum structural safety levels during natural disasters, such as earthquakes, is recognisably one of the aspects that most influence urban resilience. Moreover, the public investment in risk mitigation strategies is fundamental, not only to promote social and urban and resilience, but also to limit consequent material, human and environmental losses. Despite the growing awareness of this issue, there is still a vast number of traditional masonry buildings spread throughout many European old city centres that lacks of adequate seismic resistance, requiring therefore urgent retrofitting interventions in order to both reduce their seismic vulnerability and to cope with the increased seismic requirements of recent code standards. Thus, this paper aims at contributing to mitigate the social and economic impacts of earthquake damage scenarios through the development of vulnerability-based comparative analysis of some of the most popular retrofitting techniques applied after the 1998 Azores earthquake. The influence of each technique individually and globally studied resorting to a seismic vulnerability index methodology integrated into a GIS tool and damage and loss scenarios are constructed and critically discussed. Finally, the economic balance resulting from the implementation of that techniques are also examined.     

Earthquake loss assessment of precast RC industrial structures in Tuscany (Italy)

A seismic loss assessment for structural, non-structural, contents and business interruption is presented for precast reinforced concrete industrial buildings located in Italy. The correlation that exists between the performances of such spatially distributed buildings (i.e. spatial correlation) given a seismic event should be considered when estimating losses at a local or regional level. Loss assessment is thus performed herein using the OpenQuake-engine, an open-source tool capable of including the spatial correlation of ground-motion residuals and uncertainty in building vulnerability. The annual probability of structural collapse is employed as an initial risk measure, in which each industrial facility is considered as an individual asset. Then the economic loss for 300 buildings in the province of Arezzo is computed using a probabilistic event-based risk approach and presented in terms of annual average losses and losses at given annual rates of exceedance. The impact of the losses due to business interruption is also explored, and the extent of customer base is used as a prioritization metric for risk mitigation. It is observed that risk reduction should be applied as a priority in the facilities that are compromising the current level of acceptable risk, and the results show that business interruption has a significant contribution for economic losses, whose repercussions go beyond the regional level. Although this application is confined to the province of Arezzo, the same methodology can be used in other regions in Italy with similar building stock.     

The investigation of soil–structure resonance of historical buildings using seismic refraction and ambient vibrations HVSR measurements: a case study from Trabzon in Turkey

In this study, two different historical structures built in Trabzon have been processed by ambient vibrations and seismic refraction measurements. One of the investigated historical structures is the Atatürk Pavilion built in the nineteenth century, and the other one is Hagia Sophia which was built in the thirteenth century. These two buildings are among the most important historical buildings in Trabzon and are very important for the tourism of the city. In order to determine peak/s frequency and amplitude from the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios (HVSRs), we have performed several measurements of ambient vibrations both inside (at different floors) and outside (on the ground) of structures. We have also conducted seismic prospecting to evaluate the vertical 1D and 2D profile of longitudinal and shear seismic waves, V_p and V_s, respectively. To this purpose, we have performed seismic refraction tomography and MASW. Ambient vibrations and seismic measurements were compared with each other. The results show that average predominant frequencies and HVSR amplitudes of inside and outside of Atatürk Pavilion are 4.0 Hz, 7.8 Hz and 2.6, 2.3, respectively. The V_p values vary from 300 to 2070 m/s, and the V_s for maximum effective depth is up to 790 m/s in Atatürk Pavilion. On the other hand, average predominant frequencies and HVSR amplitudes of inside and outside of Hagia Sophia and its tower are 4.7, 4.4 and 2.4 Hz and 1.6, 1.8 and 6.9, respectively. V_p values range from 450 to 2200 m/s, and V_s for maximum effective depth is also up to 1000 m/s in Hagia Sophia. The frequency values (F₀?=?V_s/4 h) calculated from the velocities up to the maximum effective depth for Atatürk Pavilion are in good agreement with the predominant frequency values determined from ambient vibrations. Atatürk Pavilion and Hagia Sophia soils have been classed according to Eurocode 8 by using V_S30 values. The class was defined as “B.” Moreover, the bedrock in studied area is basalt. The high V_p and V_s values are also compatible with the lithology. The HVSR curves measured at the Hagia Sophia show the presence of clear peaks when compared to the Atatürk Pavilion. At the same time, there are marked velocity changes in the V_s sections calculated in both areas. As a result, in both areas there are significant impedance contrasts in the subsoil. However, this impedance contrast is more evident in Hagia Sophia. This could be also compatible with a lithological transition. The possible soil–structure interaction was investigated by using all the results and evaluated in terms of resonance risk. It is thought that the probability of resonance risk at Atatürk Pavilion is low according to the ambient vibrations measurements. However, resonance risk should be taken into consideration at Hagia Sophia site since the predominant frequency values are very close to each other. Finally, this site should be investigated in detail and necessary precautions should be taken against the risk of resonance.     

近断层地震作用下RC框排架结构易损性研究

为研究近断层地震作用下框排架结构破坏的可能性,以某钢筋混凝土框排架结构为原型建立有限元非线性分析模型,选取16条近断层地震波及8条远场地震波,采用增量动力分析方法绘制易损性曲线.结果表明:对于远场地震,8度多遇地震及基本地震时,结构正常使用、基本使用、修复后使用、生命安全及防止倒塌五个极限状态均未超越,满足"小震不坏,...     

A first-order seismotectonic regionalization of Mexico for seismic hazard and risk estimation

The purpose of this work is to define a seismic regionalization of Mexico for seismic hazard and risk analyses. This seismic regionalization is based on seismic, geologic, and tectonic characteristics. To this end, a seismic catalog was compiled using the more reliable sources available. The catalog was made homogeneous in magnitude in order to avoid the differences in the way this parameter is reported by various agencies. Instead of using a linear regression to converts from m _b and M _d to M _s or M _w , using only events for which estimates of both magnitudes are available (i.e., paired data), we used the frequency-magnitude relations relying on the a and b values of the Gutenberg-Richter relation. The seismic regions are divided into three main categories: seismicity associated with the subduction process along the Pacific coast of Mexico, in-slab events within the down-going COC and RIV plates, and crustal seismicity associated to various geologic and tectonic regions. In total, 18 seismic regions were identified and delimited. For each, the a and b values of the Gutenberg-Richter relation were determined using a maximum likelihood estimation. The a and b parameters were repeatedly estimated as a function of time for each region, in order to confirm their reliability and stability. The recurrence times predicted by the resulting Gutenberg-Richter relations obtained are compared with the observed recurrence times of the larger events in each region of both historical and instrumental earthquakes.     

Seismic analysis of nailed vertical excavation using pseudo-dynamic approach

An attempt has been made to study the behavior of nailed vertical excavations in medium dense to dense cohesionless soil under seismic conditions using a pseudo-dynamic approach. The effect of several parameters such as angle of internal friction of soil(Φ), horizontal(k_h) and vertical(k_v) earthquake acceleration coefficients, amplification factor(f_a), length of nails(L), angle of nail inclination(α) and vertical spacing of nails(S_v) on the stability of nailed vertical excavations has been explored. The limit equilibrium method along with a planar failure surface is used to derive the formulation involved with the pseudo-dynamic approach, considering axial pullout of the installed nails. A comparison of the pseudo-static and pseudo-dynamic approaches has been established in order to explore the effectiveness of the pseudo-dynamic approach over pseudo-static analysis, since most of the seismic stability studies on nailed vertical excavations are based on the latter. The results are expressed in terms of the global factor of safety(FOS). Seismic stability, i.e., the FOS of nailed vertical excavations is found to decrease with increase in the horizontal and vertical earthquake forces. The present values of FOS are compared with those available in the literature.