Intensifying Earthquake Prediction in the Light of Action of International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction

This paper is a review on earthquake prediction and forecast research,progress in earthquake prediction work and pre-estimation of earthquake hazard degree in China in recent years.It indicates that China is the first country,the government of which has promoted and organized the state administration department on reduction of seismic hazards and ensured the socialization of earthquake prediction and forecast in the world.A program of earthquake prevention and protection and hazard reduction based on the results of research on earthquake occurrence regularities and prediction of earthquake preparation trend has been completed,and hence the socialization of results of earthquake prediction and forecast research can be expected to be in practice.The practical seismological works in last 20 years indicate that the earthquakes are not considered to be unpredictable,but it is a challenge remaining to be accepted.We are willing to cooperate with all friends who are engaged in earthquake prediction and forecas     

Progress in Earthquake Studies in China for the Past 30 Years

Progress and application of earthquake studies are important and effective fundamentals for the improvement of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction. Through industrious effort during the past 30 years, significant advances were made in understanding the rules of earthquake occurrence, and the mastering and applying of the technology of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction. A number of devices that come close to or reach advanced world levels have been established and some systems in seismological experiments and earthquake prevention work have been improved, the ability to test and identify earthquake precursors have been raised, and the understanding of the complexity of these precursors has been deepened. The practical indexes and approaches for earthquake prediction have been worked out, and remarkable achievements in predictions and prevention of major earthquakes have been     

现今地震预警技术及其在国内的发展探讨

Earthquake Early Warning ( EEW) has come to attention,as earthquake prediction is still unreliable. The paper comprehensively illustrates the research status and important issues of EEW from the aspects of concept,composition and method. By analyzing the status of EEW in China,we find that the essential requirements have been met for building earthquake early warning systems in the country in terms of government and social needs, network construction and basic research. The technical difficulties and non-technical challenges in implementing EEW in China are evaluated, and some suggestions are proposed regarding the relevant legal measures,public education and protection against earthquake disasters. so as to bring into full play the role of the EEW system in earthquake disaster prevention and reduction.     

Investigation of historical earthquakes in the northeastern Fujian area

Taking the northeastern Fujian area as an example, we provide some new technological ideas and contents for the historical earthquake investigation of significant engineering construction sites. ① Make sure the integrity of earthquake materials with reference to the regional histories of culture and disasters; ② Evaluate the influence of historical earthquakes on the basis of actual records, review and identify the epicenter location and magnitude of destructive earthquakes. The research by the new technological ideas will endue the investigation of historical earthquakes with new meanings in the cultural phylogeny and credible time domain, so as to make the results of historical earthquake research more scientific. The aim of the paper is to improve the level of historical earthquake investigation for a better service to the engineering construction.     

Two-thousand years of debates and practices of Yellow River training strategies

Throughout the history of China, the Yellow River has been associated with flood disasters and changes in the course of its lower reaches because of sedimentation. From 602 B.C. to 1949 the river experienced 1593 levee bursts, flooding vast areas, and claiming millions of human lives. The river shifted its main course by avulsion 26 times with the apex around Zhengzhou, resulting in devastating calamities and numerous old channels. Training of the Yellow River has a history of more than 3000 yr. Levee construction has been the major strategy for flood control. Two extremely different strategies has been proposed and practiced in the past 2000 yr, i.e. the "wide river and depositing sediment" strategy and the "narrow river and scouring sediment" strategy. This paper analyzes the levee breaches and flood disasters in the past 2000 yr and compares the results of the two extremely different strategies. The "narrow river and scouring sediment" strategy has only short term effects on levee breach control and flood mitigation. The "wide river and depositing sediment" strategy can essentially mitigate flood disasters and reduce levee breaches for a long term period of time. The "wide river and depositing sediment" strategy has been used and no levee breach has occurred in the past 67 yr, which has been the only periods of more than 50 yr with no levee breaches in the history of the Yellow River since 700 A.D.Modern flood and sedimentation management methods have also been introduced, and the strategy of applying the ' "widen the river and enhance the levees" approach for the upper and lower reaches management is proposed.     

Patterns and trajectories of macrophyte change in East China’s shallow lakes over the past one century

Macrophytes play important roles in maintaining ecosystem health and stability of shallow lakes. Better understanding of their long-term dynamics has important theoretical and practical significance for both lake ecosystem restoration and eutrophication control. However, the knowledge about the historical status and changing patterns of macrophytes in China's shallow lakes is still controversial and lacks systematic research. Here, we reviewed and synthesized the published records of submerged macrophytes from 14 typical shallow lakes in the eastern plain covering the past 100 years. The results suggest that submerged macrophytes have experienced three clear stages of change: rare period(the 1900 s–the 1950 s), growth period(the1950 s–the 1980 s), and recession period(the 1980 s–now). This finding is different from the traditional understanding that submerged macrophytes were abundant in the early 20 th century and have been degrading since then. On this basis, we proposed the possible evolution pattern(less-more-less) of submerged macrophytes in the eastern plain lake region over the past 100 years,which provides new perspectives about the long-term evolution process of macrophytes in shallow lakes. Furthermore, we found that the decline of submerged macrophytes during the regime shift shows a gradual process at the interdecadal scale; this finding contradicts the classical regime shift theory that macrophytes decline sharply during the critical transition. This study has important theoretical value for the restoration of the eastern plain lakes in China from "turbid lake" to "clear lake", especially for establishing the historical reference condition and restoration path of macrophytes.     

Extreme climate events,migration for cultivation and policies:A case study in the early Qing Dynasty of China

Based on the historical records of the annual increase in the workforce (men older than 16 years of age), the annual new taxed cropland in the Shengjing area (Northeast China), the extreme climate events in North China, and related management policies in Northeast China during 1661―1680, a case study has been conducted to investigate the relationship between the extreme climate events in North China and the migration to Northeast China for cultivation. This study has found that the migration to Northeast China for cultivation from 1661 to 1680 was a response to the drought events that occurred in North China. The upsurge of migration, which occurred in 1665―1680, was a response to the drought period during 1664―1680 in North China while the fewer disasters period in Northeast China. There were three migratory peaks during the upsurge of migration, which corresponded to the three drought events. The peaks of migration, however, often lagged behind the drought events about 1―2 years. The encourag-ing-migration policy, which was adopted to encourage cultivation in Northeast China, did not produce much migration into the region in the early Qing Dynasty. It did, however, provide a policy background, which ensured more than 10000 migrants per year to Northeast China when North China suffered from drought/flood disasters. As a response to the highest peak of migration induced by the severe droughts in North China during 1664―1667, a prohibiting-migration policy restricted further migration to Northeast China was carried out in 1668. Although the prohibiting-migration policy could not entirely stop the migrants fleeing from famine in North China to Northeast China, the migrants and cultivation were significantly reduced under the policy. The frequent changes of the policy on the years when taxation started after the land was cultivated were also related to climate events. The extreme climate events in North China, migration to Northeast China for cultivation, and the related management poli-cies showed an impact-response chain, which reflected the interaction among extreme climate events, human behavior, and policies.     

Overview of Earthquake Preparedness and Disaster Mitigation in China

As an earthquake-prone country, China has made sustained efforts in the study of earthquakes and disaster mitigation during the past several decades, with China Seismological Bureau (CSB) as the backbone of these efforts. Working towards this purpose, a series of key projects were implemented in the “Ninth Five-Year Plan” (1995-2000) to upgrade earthquake monitoring systems and to improve the supporting infrastructure, significant results in earthquake science were achieved. In the new century, we have worked out a blueprint for earthquake preparedness and disaster mitigation in the “Tenth Five-Year Plan”, which emphases 3 systems (i.e. Seismic Monitoring & Prediction, Seismic Hazards Prevention, Emergency Response), and 10 key projects in earthquake science and technology.     

Seismic Network,Seismic Activity and Seismological Research of Vietnam

In this paper,a historical review of the seismic network of Vietnam and the ability of the network to monitor earthquakes is presented.The seismic activity of Vietnam as a country of high seismictiy in the last century and since the beginning of the new century is described.The current state of seismological research in Vietnam and cooperation with institutions outside of Vietnam is outlined.     

Recent progress and future directions of ChinaFLUX

The eddy covariance technique has emerged as an important tool to directly measure carbon dioxide, water vapor and heat fluxes between the terrestrial ecosystem and the atmosphere after a long history of fundamental research and technological developments. With the realization of regional networks of flux measurements in North American, European, Asia, Brazil, Australia and Africa, a global-scale network of micrometeorological flux measurement (FLUXNET) was established in 1998. FLUXNET has made great progresses in investigating the environmental mechanisms controlling carbon and water cycles, quantifying spatial-temporal patterns of carbon budget and seeking the "missing carbon sink" in global terrestrial ecosystems in the past ten years. The global-scale flux measurement also built a platform for international communication in the fields of resource, ecology and environment sciences. With the continuous development of flux research, FLUXNET will introduce and explore new techniques to extend the application fields of flux measurement and to answer questions in the fields of bio-geography, eco-hydrology, meteorology, climate change, remote sensing and modeling with eddy covariance flux data. As an important part of FLUXNET, ChinaFLUX has made significant progresses in the past three years on the methodology and technique of eddy covariance flux measurement, on the responses of CO2 and H2O exchange between the terrestrial ecosystem and the atmosphere to environmental change, and on flux modeling development. Results showed that the major forests on the North-South Transect of Eastern China (NSTEC) were all carbon sinks during 2003 to 2005, and the alpine meadows on the Tibet Plateau were also small carbon sinks. However, the reserved natural grassland, Leymus chinensis steppe in Inner Mongolia, was a carbon source. On a regional scale, temperature and precipitation are the primary climatic factors that determined the carbon balance in major terrestrial ecosystems in China. Finally, the current research emphasis and future directions of ChinaFLUX were presented. By combining flux network and terrestrial transect, ChinaFLUX will develop integrated research with multi-scale, multi-process, multi-subject observations, placing emphasis on the mechanism and coupling relationships between water, carbon and nitrogen cycles in terrestrial ecosystems.     

Review of Research Progresses on the Science of Earthquake Underground Fluid in China During the Last 40 Years

This paper presents a review of the development of scientific research and practice of earthquake underground fluid in China during the last 40 years, summaries early constructive research and primary achievements in this field. The science of earthquake underground fluid is closely correlated with earthquake monitoring and prediction, such as innovations in observation techniques and theoretical methods, and analysis of diversified parameters and research into predictive methods. The historical evolution of observation networks for underground fluid indicates that the demand for strong earthquake monitoring and prediction has become the driving force of the construction and development of the observation network. The development of observation techniques represents the trend based on multiform measurement, syntheses, and digitization. The study results of underground fluid theory and precursory mechanisms suggest that the precursory model, numerical simulation and in-door or field experimental research are the main technological approaches promoting innovation. Research results of earthquake forecast methods use physics based forecast techniques and the ideas of combination of usability and scientific advance. It has been proved by forecast practice that studying underground fluid is a very important subject in earthquake prediction on the Chinese mainland. Finally, the primary work and technical criterion on underground fluid are introduced, and some major scientific issues and development trends in different historical stages are summarized.     

Completeness Analysis of the Historical Earthquake Catalogue in China

The historical earthquake catalogue of China has lasted more than 3000 years,and most of its data are inferred from historical records.The earthquake catalogue in earlier times is not complete owing to various reasons,so some events are lost.This paper estimates the loss rate of earthquakes with various magnitudes in the historical earthquake catalogue for different time intervals quantitatively by using the Gutenberg-Richter formula and modern instrumental records,which will provide the references for statistic research in seismicity.     

Effects of precipitation and landuse on runoff during the past 50 years in a typical watershed in the Loess Plateau, China

In the past century, great progress has been made worldwide in our understanding of forest-water relationship. The successful forestation programs implemented in China-which have improved the ecological environmental conditions-have gained the attention of many researchers and highlighted the relationship between forestation and water yields. The arid and semi-arid Loess Plateau has received attention from water engineers and eco-hydrological researchers in China because of a shortage in water resources. We selected one of the oldest stations conducting soil and water conservation experiments, the Xifeng soil and water conservation station, and chose the Nanxiaohe catchment and its paired catchments （Yangjiagou catchment and Dongzhuanggou catchment） as our research areas. Trends in precipitation, air temperature, streamflow over the past 50 years, and the effect of changing land use on streamflow were analyzed. The Mann-Kendall test showed that precipitation had a negative trend （downward trend）, whereas air temperature showed a positive trend （upward trend） from the past to present in the Nanxiaohe catchment. However, the trends seen in precipitation, air temperature did not contain any ＂jumping points.＂ The paired catchment approach is used to detect the effects of land cover change on hydrology in the Yangjiagou and the contrast catchment, i.e., Dongzhuanggou catchment in our study. The results showed a large change in land use in the Yangjiagou catchment from 1954 to 2008. An increase in forested land （from 0% to 40.08% from 1954 to 2008） and a reduction of bare land （from 51.26% to 5.50% from 1954 to 2008） accounted for a large part of the change in land use. However, the land use changed little in the contrast catchment. The comparison of streamfiow in the paired catchments showed that forestation reduced streamflow by 49.63% （or 6.5 mm） each year.     

The Characteristics of Earthquake Disasters and Countermeasures for Their Mitigation in Metropolitans

Metropolitans are a result of fast economic development in China. Many metropolitans have emerged in the eastern part of China. Earthquake disasters in metropolitans are more complicated and serious than those in a smaller city, and the impact of earthquake disaster on the economy and society is large. The characteristics of earthquake disasters and countermeasures to protect against and mitigate disaster in the metropolitan, as well as some key research fields in the earthquake disaster protection and mitigation, are discussed.     

Evaluation of the Capacity of Comprehensive Earthquake Prevention System in a Region and Its Countermeasures

A model for evaluating the capacity of the comprehensive prevention system in a region in terms of economic losses is established in this paper by using fuzzy mathematics.The authors have explored the weak links of the system mentioned above and suggested an effective procedure of increasing the capacity of earthquake resistance and disaster prevention in a region.Through taking suitable means of decision making,the mathematical model presented in this paper can be used for reference during establishing the comprehensive prevention system in a region to reduce the earthquake disasters.     

Estimation of Potential Risk of Reservoir-Induced Earthquake for the Proposed Hydroelectric Project on the Yangtze Gorges

The proposed hydroelectric project on the Yangtze Gorges will be one of the largest power stations in the world.The problem of induced seismicity to the project has attracted much attention throughout China and the world.A research program has been carried out by the State Seismological Bureau of China.Based on the size of the reservoir and the lithology,geological structure,permeability,stress state,and previous seismicity in the region,the potential risk of reservoir-induced seismicity has been estimated.The results suggest that,after impoundment in the reservoir area,the possibility of induced seismicity cannot be completely ruled out.The areas with potential risk may be in some gorges composed of karstified carbonate and plutonic granite around the dam site.However,the magnitude is expected to be limited owing to the small dimension of the induced seismogenic faults.     

Earthquake Prdiction Research in China

China is the country with the most earthquakes and the most serious hazards from continental earthquakes in the world.During the 1960s and 1970s,a series of strong earthquakes attacked the cities and counties in China causing great damage and many casualties.The most striking one was the Tangshan earthquake(Ms7.8) in July 1976,in which over 240,000 people died and a large industrial city was leveled.Public demand for earthquake forecasting surged after this disaster.From the mid-1960s,systemic research on earthquake forecasting has evolved throughout the country,In this paper the main advances in earthquake prediction research in China have been summarized.     

Annual Consultation on the Likelihood of Earthquakes in Continental China： Its Scientific and Practical Merits

Since the 1970s, Chinese seismologists have started to conduct the Annual Consultation on the Likelihood of Coming Earthquakes in the Next Year. This approach has unique scientific and practical merits either as an active response to the social needs in the situation that earthquake prediction research meets many difficulties, or as a real forward prediction test persistently conducted for 1/3 century. It is a pity that such an approach has not been well-known by international seismological community, and the scientific merits of such an endeavor is sometimes regrettably underestimated.     

Prediction analysis of long-term memory effect for calamity gray series

Are human able to foresee the future? For thou-sands of years close attention has been paid to this issue. At the present day, in order to survive from competition and to predominate over the nature, hu-man抯 desire of forecasting things has become more and more intense. Compared to conquering space, more people yearn for being able to control the time. From ancient to the present, mankind always dream of contacting the past, governing the present and tran-scending the future. Recent years in…     

Advances on Active Tectonics Research

The tectonic movement at human scale has not been fully understood yet, especially for active tectonics, although it is the basis to study natural hazards and environmental variations. Many national and international scientific plans related closely to active tectonics research have been made in the past ten years. This paper briefly summarized the background of the undertaking of active tectonics research, its advances and existing problems, and the key points in its future studies are also pointed out. The emerging of new technologies like the Earth Observing Sys tem, Digital Seismology and so on provides unusual opportunities for tectonic research. It is emphasized, however, that careful analyses and building up of new theoretical frame are sill the key problems for studies of active tectonics, especially for active tectonics in China‘ s conti nent.