冰川均衡调整对南极冰质量平衡监测的影响及其不确定性

本文研究了新的全球冰川均衡调整(GIA)模型对南极冰盖质量平衡监测的影响,考虑现有冰川负荷模型和地幔黏滞度模型的差异,完整评估了结果的不确定性,最后结合GRACE和卫星测高的结果进行了对比分析.结果表明,GIA对GRACE监测的等效水柱变化有重大影响,较大的GIA影响出现在西南极,沿罗斯冰架-卡姆布冰流-罗尼冰架-南极半岛分布,最大值在卡姆布冰流,达到29.8 mm/a;GIA对南极整体冰质量平衡的影响达到134±28 Gt/a.在不确定性的方差中,西南极和东南极分别以冰负荷模型差异和地幔黏滞度差异影响为主,对整个南极,冰模型差异影响占88.4%;在一些典型地区,GRACE监测的等效水柱在扣除GIA前后分别是,卡姆布冰流~32.8 mm/a和~6.3 mm/a,阿蒙森海湾~-95.3 mm/a和~-102.5 mm/a,Enderby Land~13.6 mm/a和~8.1 mm/a.整个南极冰盖总质量变化在扣除GIA贡献后为-82±29 Gt/a,该估计与卫星测高结果较吻合.此外,GIA对卫星测高监测的冰面高程变化的影响一般不超过8%.本研究为空间大地测量监测南极冰质量平衡提供了新的改正模型.     

Use of GRACE determined secular gravity rates for glacial isostatic adjustment studies in North-America

Monthly geopotential spherical harmonic coefficients from the GRACE satellite mission are used to determine their usefulness and limitations for studying glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in North-America. Secular gravity rates are estimated by unweighted least-squares estimation using release 4 coefficients from August 2002 to August 2007 provided by the Center for Space Research (CSR), University of Texas. Smoothing is required to suppress short wavelength noise, in addition to filtering to diminish geographically correlated errors, as shown in previous studies. Optimal cut-off degrees and orders are determined for the destriping filter to maximize the signal to noise ratio. The halfwidth of the Gaussian filter is shown to significantly affect the sensitivity of the GRACE data (with respect to upper mantle viscosity and ice loading history). Therefore, the halfwidth should be selected based on the desired sensitivity.It is shown that increase in water storage in an area south west of Hudson Bay, from the summer of 2003 to the summer of 2006, contributes up to half of the maximum estimated gravity rate. Hydrology models differ in the predictions of the secular change in water storage, therefore even 4-year trend estimates are influenced by the uncertainty in water storage changes. Land ice melting in Greenland and Alaska has a non-negligible contribution, up to one-fourth of the maximum gravity rate.The estimated secular gravity rate shows two distinct peaks that can possibly be due to two domes in the former Pleistocene ice cover: west and south east of Hudson Bay. With a limited number of models, a better fit is obtained with models that use the ICE-3G model compared to the ICE-5G model. However, the uncertainty in interannual variations in hydrology models is too large to constrain the ice loading history with the current data span. For future work in which GRACE will be used to constrain ice loading history and the Earth's radial viscosity profile, it is important to include realistic uncertainty estimates for hydrology models and land ice melting in addition to the effects of lateral heterogeneity.     

Use of GRACE determined secular gravity rates for glacial isostatic adjustment studies in North-America

Monthly geopotential spherical harmonic coefficients from the GRACE satellite mission are used to determine their usefulness and limitations for studying glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in North-America. Secular gravity rates are estimated by unweighted least-squares estimation using release 4 coefficients from August 2002 to August 2007 provided by the Center for Space Research (CSR), University of Texas. Smoothing is required to suppress short wavelength noise, in addition to filtering to diminish geographically correlated errors, as shown in previous studies. Optimal cut-off degrees and orders are determined for the destriping filter to maximize the signal to noise ratio. The halfwidth of the Gaussian filter is shown to significantly affect the sensitivity of the GRACE data (with respect to upper mantle viscosity and ice loading history). Therefore, the halfwidth should be selected based on the desired sensitivity.It is shown that increase in water storage in an area south west of Hudson Bay, from the summer of 2003 to the summer of 2006, contributes up to half of the maximum estimated gravity rate. Hydrology models differ in the predictions of the secular change in water storage, therefore even 4-year trend estimates are influenced by the uncertainty in water storage changes. Land ice melting in Greenland and Alaska has a non-negligible contribution, up to one-fourth of the maximum gravity rate.The estimated secular gravity rate shows two distinct peaks that can possibly be due to two domes in the former Pleistocene ice cover: west and south east of Hudson Bay. With a limited number of models, a better fit is obtained with models that use the ICE-3G model compared to the ICE-5G model. However, the uncertainty in interannual variations in hydrology models is too large to constrain the ice loading history with the current data span. For future work in which GRACE will be used to constrain ice loading history and the Earth's radial viscosity profile, it is important to include realistic uncertainty estimates for hydrology models and land ice melting in addition to the effects of lateral heterogeneity.     

冰川均衡调整对东亚重力和海平面变化的影响

新的全球冰川均衡调整(GIA)模型RF3L20(β=0.4)+ICE-4G考虑了地幔黏滞度沿横向的变化,其黏滞度参数得到大地测量、历史相对海平面变化观测和地震剪切波层析模型的较好约束.本文利用该模型预测了东亚现今重力变化和海平面变化,根据当前末次冰川时空变化和黏滞度参考模型中下地幔下部黏滞度认识的差异,评估了预测的不确定性.结果表明,GIA对东亚地区重力场和海平面长期变化有显著的影响:例如,在哈尔滨、长春、泰安、蓟县、郑州、武汉等测站,GIA重力影响达几十纳伽,可用超导重力仪和未来原子重力仪观测出来;在东亚大陆GIA对GRACE监测的等效水柱长期变化的影响为3%~10%,其中青藏高原西部、华北和三峡地区的影响较大.在东海—太平洋区,GIA的相对影响高达20%~40%;GIA使东亚海域绝对海平面以0.27~0.37 mm/a的速率在长期下降,在黄海、东海卫星测高监测的绝对海平面长期变化中,GIA的相对影响分别达6.9%和7.5%;在58个验潮站,平均相对海平面长期上升速率为2.22 mm/a,GIA影响为-0.17 mm/a,其中14个测站GIA的影响达-0.3~-0.4 mm/a.本文GIA预测的结果,对在东亚地区发现弱的地球动力学过程信号、监测水质量长期变化、监测海平面长期变化和分析其机制,提供精密的改正模型.     

联合GRACE和ICESat数据分离南极冰川均衡调整(GIA)信号

2002年发射的GRACE重力卫星为南极冰盖质量平衡提供了一种新的测量方式,但由于南极GIA模型的不确定较大,进而影响GRACE结果的可靠性.本文联合2003-2009年的GRACE和ICESat等数据实现了南极GIA信号的分离,联合方法所分离的GIA不依赖于不确定性很大的冰负荷等假设模型,而是直接基于卫星观测数据估算而来的,具有更大的可靠性.在分离过程中,本文提出了冰流速度加权改正法和GPS球谐拟合改正法对GIA结果进行精化,同时引入了南极GPS观测站的位移数据对分离的GIA进行详细的评估和验证,GPS验证表明经过冰流速度加权和GPS球谐拟合双改正后的GIA结果精度明显得到提高.最后本文利用所分离的GIA对GRACE和ICESat结果进行了改正,得到2003-2009年南极冰盖质量变化的趋势为-66.7±54.5 Gt/a（GRACE）和-77.2±21.5 Gt/a（ICESat）,相比采用其他的GIA模型,本文的GIA结果使GRACE和ICESat这两种不同观测技术得到的南极冰盖质量变化结果更加趋于一致.     

Seismic reflection constraints on the glacial dynamics of Johnsons Glacier,Antarctica

During two Antarctic summers (1996–1997 and 1997–1998), five seismic refraction and two reflection profiles were acquired on the Johnsons Glacier (Livingston Island, Antarctica) in order to obtain information about the structure of the ice, characteristics of the ice-bed contact and basement topography. An innovative technique has been used for the acquisition of reflection data to optimise the field survey schedule. Different shallow seismic sources were used during each field season: Seismic Impulse Source System (SISSY) for the first field survey and low-energy explosives (pyrotechnic noisemakers) during the second one. A comparison between these two shallow seismic sources has been performed, showing that the use of the explosives is a better seismic source in this ice environment. This is one of the first studies where this type of source has been used. The analysis of seismic data corresponding to one of the reflection profiles (L3) allows us to delineate sectors with different glacier structure (accumulation and ablation zones) without using glaciological data. Moreover, vertical discontinuities were detected by the presence of back-scattered energy and the abrupt change in frequency content of first arrivals shown in shot records. After the raw data analysis, standard processing led us to a clear seismic image of the underlying bed topography, which can be correlated with the ice flow velocity anomalies. The information obtained from seismic data on the internal structure of the glacier, location of fracture zones and the topography of the ice-bed interface constrains the glacial dynamics of Johnsons Glacier.     

Glacial isostatic adjustment in 3-D earth models: Implications for the analysis of tide gauge records along the U.S. east coast

Tide gauge records of recent sea-level change along the U.S. east coast have received significant attention within the literature of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). Geographic trends in these tide gauge rates are not reduced by a GIA correction based on a commonly adopted radial viscosity profile (characterized, in particular, by a lower mantle viscosity 1−2×10²¹ Pa s), and this has led to speculation that the residual trends reflect contributions from neotectonics or oceanographic processes. While the trends can be significantly reduced by adopting an Earth model with a stiffer lower mantle, such a model appears to be incompatible with independent constraints from post-glacial decay times in Hudson Bay. We use a finite-element model of the GIA process to investigate whether 3-D viscosity variations superimposed onto the “common” radial viscosity profile may provide a route to reconciling the east coast sea-level trends. We find that the specific 3-D structure we impose has little impact on the geographic trends in the GIA-corrected rates. However, we do find that the imposed lateral variations in lower mantle viscosity introduce a nearly uniform upward shift of 0.5 mm/yr in GIA-induced sea-level rates along the U.S. east coast. Thus, inferences of regional (U.S. east coast) sea-level rise due to modern melting of ice reservoirs, based on tide gauge rates corrected using 1-D GIA models, may be significantly biased by this simplifying assumption.     

Studies on the application of combining models for vertical crustal movements

There are several kinds of analyzing models for vertical crustal movements, every one of them has different advantages and disadvantages, and adapts to different situations. This paper deals with the theory of the optimizing combining models for vertical crustal movements. The purpose for this optimization is to improve the fitting ability of models. This research was supported in part by the National Science Foundation of China.     

Meteoritic and bedrock constraints on the glacial history of Frontier Mountain in northern Victoria Land, Antarctica

In 2001, a small H4 chondrite, Frontier Mountain (FRO) 01149, was found on a glacially eroded surface near the top of Frontier Mountain, Antarctica, about 600 m above the present ice level. The metal and sulphides are almost completely oxidized due to terrestrial weathering. We used a chemical leaching procedure to remove weathering products, which contained atmospheric ¹⁰Be and ³⁶Cl in a ratio similar to that found in Antarctic ice. The FRO 01149 meteorite has a terrestrial age of 3.0 ± 0.3 Myr based on the concentrations of the cosmogenic radionuclides ¹⁰Be, ²⁶Al and ³⁶Cl. This age implies that FRO 01149 is the oldest stony meteorite (fossil meteorites excluded) discovered on Earth. The noble gas cosmic ray exposure age of FRO 01149 is ~ 30 Myr. The meteorite thus belongs to the 33 Myr exposure age peak of H-chondrites.The bedrock surface on which FRO 01149 was found has wet-based glacial erosional features recording a former high-stand of the East Antarctic ice sheet. This ice sheet evidently overrode the highest peaks (> 2800 m a.s.l.) of the inland sector of the Transantarctic Mountains in northern Victoria Land. We argue that FRO 01149 was a local fall and that its survival on a glacially eroded bedrock surface constrains the age of the last overriding event to be older than ~ 3 Myr. The concentrations of in-situ produced cosmogenic ¹⁰Be, ²⁶Al and ²¹Ne in a glacially eroded bedrock sample taken from near the summit of Frontier Mountain yield a surface exposure age of 4.4 Myr and indicate that the bedrock was covered by several meters of snow. The exposure age is also consistent with bedrock exposure ages of other summit plateaus in northern Victoria Land.     

利用GPS垂直位移反演区域陆地水储量变化的TSVD-Tikhonov正则化方法

利用GPS垂直位移反演区域陆地水储量变化（TWSC）属于典型的病态问题,其关键是如何进行稳定求解并提高反演结果的精度和可靠性.本文引入TSVD-Tikhonov组合正则化方法对利用GPS垂直位移反演区域TWSC的病态问题进行求解,并以四川省TWSC反演为例进行分析与验证.首先,通过数值模拟对TSVD、Tikhonov和TSVD-Tikhonov正则化方法采用不同正则化参数选取策略（RMSE最小准则、GCV法和L-curve法）进行反演,结果显示基于TSVD-Tikhonov正则化反演的TWSC比单独使用TSVD或Tikhonov正则化反演结果的精度和可靠性更高,这三种正则化方法反演2005年1月至12月的TWSC差值的平均STD分别为14.97 mm、7.03 mm和5.04 mm.其次,利用中国地壳运动观测网络（CMONOC）的72个GPS测站的垂直位移数据,基于TSVD-Tikhonov正则化反演了四川省2010年12月至2021年2月的TWSC时间序列,结果表明GPS反演的TWSC与GRACE/GFO Mascon模型（JPL、CSR和GSFC）的空间分布特征及季节性变化符合较好,但其TWSC信号的振幅比GRACE/GFO Mascon模型更强.最后,采用广义三角帽方法（GTCH）融合不同类型的降水、蒸散发和径流数据,并根据水量平衡方程计算的dTWSC/dt序列（PER-dS/dt）对GPS反演的dTWSC/dt序列（GPS-dS/dt）和GRACE/GFO Mascon模型融合的dTWSC/dt序列（GRACE/GFO-dS/dt）进行验证,结果表明这三类dTWSC/dt序列的季节性变化符合较好,平滑后GPS-dS/dt和GRACE/GFO-dS/dt序列与PER-dS/dt序列的相关系数分别为0.78和0.87,但GPS相比GRACE/GFO对降水变化的响应更为敏感.本文研究证明了TSVD-Tikhonov组合正则化方法能够提高GPS垂直位移反演区域TWSC的精度和可靠性,同时也表明GPS观测数据对局部水质量负荷变化更为敏感,可作为GRACE/GFO反演区域TWSC的有益补充.

     

利用GPS和水文负载模型研究云南地区垂向季节性波动变化和构造变形

去除GPS垂向位移中水文负载引起的非构造形变是获取云南地区地壳构造运动垂向成分的必要过程.本文利用云南地区在2011年1月—2020年9月间观测的27个GPS连续站数据和0.5°×0.5°的格网全球地表流量模型(Land Surface Discharge Model,LSDM)得到的水文负载形变数据,详细分析了 GP...     

Geophysical models for the tectonic framework of the Lake Vostok region, East Antarctica

Aerogeophysical and seismological data from a geophysical survey in the interior of East Antarctica were used to develop a conceptual tectonic model for the Lake Vostok region. The model is constrained using three independent data sets: magnetic, seismic, and gravimetric. A distinct change in the aeromagnetic anomaly character across Lake Vostok defines a crustal boundary. Depth to magnetic basement estimates image a 400-km-wide and more than 10-km-deep sedimentary basin west of the lake. Analysis of teleseismic earthquakes suggests a relatively thin crust beneath Lake Vostok consistent with predictions from kinematic and flexural gravity modelling. Magnetic, gravity, and subglacial topography data reveal a tectonic boundary within East Antarctica. Based on our kinematic and flexural gravity modelling, this tectonic boundary appears to be the result of thrust sheet emplacement onto an earlier passive continental margin. No data presently exist to date directly either the timing of passive margin formation or the subsequent shortening phase. The preserved thrust sheet thickness is related to the thickness of the passive margin crust. Because a significant amount of time is required to erode the thrust sheet topography, we suggest that these tectonic events are Proterozoic in age. Minor normal reactivation of the thrust sheet offers a simple mechanism to explain the formation of the Lake Vostok Basin. A low level of seismicity exists in the vicinity of this tectonic boundary. The existence of a crustal boundary in the Antarctic interior provides new constraints on the Proterozoic architecture of the East Antarctic craton.     

Diagnosis of dominant forcing factors for large-scale vertical velocities during active and break phases of the monsoon

An attempt to diagnose the dominant forcings which drive the large-scale vertical velocities over the monsoon region has been made by computing the forcings like diabatic heating fields,etc. and the large-scale vertical velocities driven by these forcings for the contrasting periods of active and break monsoon situations; in order to understand the rainfall variability associated with them. Computation of diabatic heating fields show us that among different components of diabatic heating it is the convective heating that dominates at mid-tropospheric levels during an active monsoon period; whereas it is the sensible heating at the surface that is important during a break period. From vertical velocity calculations we infer that the prime differences in the large-scale vertical velocities seen throughout the depth of the atmosphere are due to the differences in the orders of convective heating; the maximum rate of latent heating being more than 10 degrees Kelvin per day during an active monsoon period; whereas during a break monsoon period it is of the order of 2 degrees Kelvin per day at mid-tropospheric levels. At low levels of the atmosphere, computations show that there is large-scale ascent occurring over a large spatial region, driven only by the dynamic forcing associated with vorticity and temperature advection during an active monsoon period. However, during a break monsoon period such large-scale spatial organization in rising motion is not seen. It is speculated that these differences in the low-level large-scale ascent might be causing differences in convective heating because the weaker the low level ascent, the lesser the convective instability which produces deep cumulus clouds and hence lesser the associated latent heat release. The forcings due to other components of diabatic heating, namely, the sensible heating and long wave radiative cooling do not influence the large-scale vertical velocities significantly.     

风的垂直切变对滞弹性大气中静力适应过程的影响

本文基于描写滞弹性大气静力适应过程的线性方程组,从波动频散关系、气团运动规律和能量转换的角度出发,研究了水平基流及其垂直切变对该模式大气静力适应过程的影响.构造四种水平基流垂直分布模型进行比较,分别为常数型、线性切变型、反气旋切变型和气旋切变型,得到结论：（1）具有重力波性质的波动是滞弹性大气静力适应过程中扰动能量传播的方式,当垂直折射指数大于零时,基本气流及其垂直切变的存在,不仅改变了波动频率的大小,而且改变波动传播的方向;（2）在静力适应过程中气块的运动轨迹呈椭圆形,水平基流及其垂直切变影响椭圆的扁率,同时也影响扰动物理量之间的偏振关系;（3）水平基流的垂直切变是扰动能量和水平基流能量发生转换的媒介,当存在垂直向上的动量输送时,正的垂直风切变对应扰动能量的衰减,水平基流能量的增加,负的垂直风切变对应扰动能量的增加,水平基流能量的衰减;（4）不同的风的垂直切变模型,对静力适应过程的影响不同;对于水平基流呈反气旋切变型和气旋切变型,扰动发展的波动垂直结构为,急流轴上方波动等相位线自下而上向西倾斜,急流轴下方波动等相位线自下而上向东倾斜,反之亦然.

     

Seasonal copula models for the analysis of glacier discharge at King George Island,Antarctica

Modelling glacier discharge is an important issue in hydrology and climate research. Glaciers represent a fundamental water resource when melting of ice and snow contributes to runoff. Glaciers are also studied as natural global warming sensors. GLACKMA association has implemented one of their Pilot Experimental Catchment areas at the King George Island in the Antarctica which records values of the liquid discharge from Collins glacier. In this paper, we propose the use of time-varying copula models for analyzing the relationship between air temperature and glacier discharge, which is clearly non constant and non linear through time. A seasonal copula model is defined where both the marginal and copula parameters vary periodically along time following a seasonal dynamic. Full Bayesian inference is performed such that the marginal and copula parameters are estimated in a one single step, in contrast with the usual two-step approach. Bayesian prediction and model selection is also carried out for the proposed model such that Bayesian credible intervals can be obtained for the conditional glacier discharge given a value of the temperature at any given time point. The proposed methodology is illustrated using the GLACKMA real data where there is, in addition, a hydrological year of missing discharge data which were not possible to measure accurately due to problems in the sounding.     

Influence of a method of evaluation of the curvature of flexible vegetation elements on vertical distributions of flow velocities

Methods of computing the deflections of flexible vegetation elements under the dynamic pressure of water were presented in the paper. Two methods, based on Euler-Bernoulli beam theory, were discussed, one designed for small deflections and the other, generalized one, also for larger deflections. The choice of the method for computations of deflections was discussed from the perspective of the computation of flow velocities above flexible vegetation. Computational results were compared with laboratory experiments and it was found that the simplified, computationally less expensive method may be used in many practical situations without deterioration of the results.     

Energy flow in shallow depth based on vertical array records during recent strong earthquakes (supplement)

Based on subsurface wave energy flows calculated in the previous paper for strong motion records at 30 vertical array sites by assuming vertical propagation of SH waves, upward energy ratios between layers have been correlated to corresponding impedance ratios. This indicates that the upward energy tends to decrease almost in proportion to the power of 0.70 of the impedance ratio from deep-seated stiff rock (equivalent to seismological bedrock) to soft soil near ground surface. The upward energies at the seismological bedrock have been estimated from the observed energy at the deepest level for all vertical array sites by using this relationship and plotted versus hypocentral distances.     

The effect of ordered vertical velocities and of the Earth's surface on the trajectories of particles of polluted air in the atmosphere

Summary The possibilities of improving of the construction of trajectories of air particles polluted by antropogeneous admixtures are discussed. With this in view attention is devoted to the ordered vertical velocities of dynamic origin and a simple method of approximate construction of the trajectories in the boundary layer of the atmosphere, where the flow is markedly affected by the Earth's surface, is discussed.     

Ground motion models for the Molise region (Southern Italy)

The aim of this paper is to evaluate empirical attenuation relationships in order to validate peak values and pseudo-velocity spectra to calibrate shaking scenarios for the Molise area, which was struck by two earthquakes of M_w=5.7 (INGV-Harvard European-Mediterranean Regional Centroid-Moment tensor project) on October 31st and November 1st, 2002. Before the earthquake occurrence this region was classified as not hazardous, according to the former Italian seismic code. After the main-shocks, felt in many towns of the Molise and Puglia regions, a strong motion and a seismic temporary network were installed in the epicentral area and surrounding regions. This allowed the collection of a large data set, useful to characterize this area. The joint velocity-acceleration data set has been used to derive ground motion models for peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and pseudo-velocity response spectra for both maximum horizontal and vertical components of the motion.The results obtained for the Molise area have been compared with the attenuation pattern of the Umbria-Marche region (central Italy) and the Italian territory. Remarkable differences have been observed leading to a discussion of the possible regional dependence of ground motion.