Necessity for post-processing dynamically downscaled climate projections for impact and adaptation studies

This work aims to answer if post-processing climate model outputs will improve the accuracy of climate change impact assessment and adaptation evaluation. To achieve this aim, the daily outputs of CSIRO Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model for periods 1960–1979, 1980–1999 and 2046–2065, and observed daily climate data (1960–1979, 1980–1999) were used by a stochastic weather generator, the Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator to construct long time series of local climate scenarios (CSs). The direct outputs of climate models (DOCM) and CSs were then fed into the Agricultural Production System sIMulator—Wheat model to calculate seasonal climate variables and production components at three locations spanning northern, central and southern wheat production areas in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. This study firstly compared the differences in climate variables and production components derived from DOCM and CSs against those from observed climate for period 1960–1979. The impact difference arising from the use of DOCM and CSs for the future period 2046–2065 was then quantified. Simulation results show that (1) both the median/mean and distribution/variation of climate variables and production components associated with CSs were closer to those derived from observed climate when compared to those from DOCM in most of the cases (median/mean, distribution/variation, climate variables, production components and locations); (2) the difference in the mean and distribution of climate variables and production components derived from DOCM and observed climate was significant in most of the cases; (3) longer dry spells in both winter and spring were found from CSs across the three locations considered in comparison with those from DOCM; (4) the median growing season (GS) rainfall total, GS average maximum temperature, GS average solar radiation, GS length and final wheat yield were lower from DOCM than those from CSs and vice versa for GS rainfall frequency and GS average minimum temperature in 2055; (5) the mean and distribution of these climate variables and production components arising from the use of DOCM and CSs are significantly different in most of the cases. This implied that using the direct outputs of spatially downscaled general circulation model without implementing post-processing procedures may lead to significant errors in projected climate impact and the identified effort in tackling climate change risk. It is therefore highly recommended that post-processing procedures be used in developing robust CSs for climate change impact assessment and adaptation evaluation.     

Assumptions and goals for least squares migration

Least squares migration uses the assumption that, if we have an operator that can create data from a reflectivity function, the optimal image will predict the actual recorded data with minimum square error. For this assumption to be true, it is also required that: (a) the prediction operator must be error-free, (b) model elements not seen by the operator should be constrained by other means and (c) data weakly predicted by the operator should make limited contribution to the solution. Under these conditions, least squares migration has the advantage over simple migration of being able to remove interference between different model components. Least squares migration does that by de-convolving or inverting the so-called Hessian operator. The Hessian is the cascade of forward modelling and migration; for each image point, it computes the effects of interference from other image points (point-spread function) given the actual recording geometry and the subsurface velocity model. Because the Hessian contains illumination information (along its diagonal), and information about the model cross-correlation produced by non-orthogonality of basis functions, its inversion produces illumination compensation and increases resolution. In addition, sampling deficiencies in the recording geometry map to the Hessian (both diagonal and non-diagonal elements), so least squares migration has the potential to remove sampling artefacts as well. These (illumination compensation, resolution and mitigating recording deficiencies) are the three main goals of least squares migration, although the first one can be achieved by cheaper techniques. To invert the Hessian, least squares migration relies on the residual errors during iterations. Iterative algorithms, like conjugate gradient and others, use the residuals to calculate the direction and amplitudes (gradient and step size) of the necessary corrections to the reflectivity function or model. Failure of conditions (a), (b) or (c) leads the inversion to calculate incorrect model updates, which translate to noise in the final image. In this paper, we will discuss these conditions for Kirchhoff migration and reverse time migration.     

Lessons learned and need for instrumented liquefaction sites

Instrumented sites provide essential information for understanding and modeling of ground response and ground deformation. For example, significant new lessons were learned from responses at the Wildlife Liquefaction Array (WLA) including: (1) soil softening led to lengthening of period of transmitted ground motions; (2) soil softening also led to attenuation of short-period spectral accelerations (<0.7 s); (3) amplification of long period motions (>0.7 s) occurred due to liquefaction-induced ground oscillation; and (4) ground oscillation led to a continued rise of pore water pressures after strong ground shaking ceased. A new and expanded instrumented site is being developed 70 m downstream from the old WLA site as part of the NSF Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation (NEES). The new site has more accelerometers, piezometers and ground deformation measurement devices and the data will be streamed to the NEES-grid in near real time.     

地震前兆信息量计算软件研制及其操作说明

根据对前兆观测资料进行异常提取、时空综合分析的基本思路,研制了地震前兆信息量计算软件.该软件由13个子窗体、19个计算模块组成,分为工作区域、数据处理、前兆信息量计算、前兆信息量综合分析、显示打印等5个主控菜单.文中对每一主控菜单下的各计算模块的功能、输入与输出信息、计算结果存储与调用做了介绍.     

A new and effective method for quartz-feldspar separation for OSL and CRN dating

Quartz is a preferred mineral which is widely used for optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) dating methods. Any contamination in the sample may mislead and result in erroneous results for both the dating methods (e.g. OSL or CRN). Therefore it is essential to get pure quartz before the measurements of OSL and CRN. Presence of other minerals can introduce unaccounted luminescence signal in the case of OSL, similarly in the case of CRN unaccounted concentration of ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al may be introduced. Therefore, in order to get reliable ages from CRN and OSL, extraction of pure quartz from the sediment becomes necessary. Protocols have been developed to extract pure quartz from the sediment, e.g., the separation of quartz from feldspar and other heavy minerals can be achieved by applying 2-step density separation. This is followed by HF leaching which usually removes the feldspar contamination from the quartz (if any left). However, in some cases, this method is not successful, especially in the case of feldspar rich samples or in the samples with intergrowth of feldspar in quartz crystals. This paper reports a method that is effective in separating quartz and feldspar. A small amount of fine grained iron powder was used to make feldspar as magnetic mineral and it is separated from quartz using isodynamic magnetic separator effectively. Efficacy of the method was tested with different analytical instruments such as scanning electron microscope (SEM), OSL/TL reader and inductively coupled plasma mass spectromete (ICP-MS). The analytical tests showed that the proposed method eliminates feldspar by ~95%.     

Selection and criteria for biological indicator species for Arctic monitoring

The estuarine ecosystems are considered as key objects in the Arctic monitoring. Crustacean Saduria entomon, bivalve Portlandia aestuariorum and Cyrtodaria curriana, whitefish Coregonus muksun, C. autumnalis and C. sardinella sardinella and sculpin Triglopsis polaris (= Myoxocephalus quadricornis) are proposed for monitoring of Arctic estuaries. Review of AMAP list of species was carried out. Some species, as included in the World and National ‘Red Books’ and thus being under legislation (polar bear, atlantic and Laptev sea subspecies of walrus, falcon Falco rusticolus) must be left out of the list of species-monitors. The same is applied as in the case of species which often feed on human waste (glaucous gull, fulmar). Instead of using the rare and valuable carnivorous species, appropriately their prey is used as monitors.     

Coupled wave and surge modelling for the eastern Irish Sea and implications for model wind-stress

We revisit the surge of November 1977, a storm event which caused damage on the Sefton coast in NW England. A hindcast has been made with a coupled surge-tide-wave model, to investigate whether a wave-dependent surface drag is necessary for accurate surge prediction, and also if this can be represented by an optimised Charnock parameter. The Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Modelling System-Wave Model (POLCOMS-WAM) has been used to model combined tides, surges, waves and wave-current interaction in the Irish Sea on a 1.85 km grid. This period has been previously thoroughly studied, e.g. Jones and Davies [Jones, J.E., Davies, A.M., 1998. Storm surge computations for the Irish Sea using a three-dimensional numerical model including wave-current interaction. Continental Shelf Research 18(2), 201–251] and we build upon this previous work to validate the POLCOMS-WAM model to test the accuracy of surge elevation predictions in the study area. A one-way nested approach has been set up from larger scale models to the Irish Sea model. It was demonstrated that (as expected) swell from the North Atlantic does not have a significant impact in the eastern Irish Sea. To capture the external surge generated outside of the Irish Sea a (1/9° by 1/6°) model extending beyond the continental shelf edge was run using the POLCOMS model for tide and surge.     

Radiance data assimilation for operational snow and streamflow forecasting

Estimation of seasonal snowpack, in mountainous regions, is crucial for accurate streamflow prediction. This paper examines the ability of data assimilation (DA) of remotely sensed microwave radiance data to improve snow water equivalent prediction, and ultimately operational streamflow forecasts. Operational streamflow forecasts in the National Weather Service River Forecast Center (NWSRFC) are produced with a coupled SNOW17 (snow model) and SACramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model. A comparison of two assimilation techniques, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the particle filter (PF), is made using a coupled SNOW17 and the microwave emission model for layered snow pack (MEMLS) model to assimilate microwave radiance data. Microwave radiance data, in the form of brightness temperature (TB), is gathered from the advanced microwave scanning radiometer-earth observing system (AMSR-E) at the 36.5 GHz channel. SWE prediction is validated in a synthetic experiment. The distribution of snowmelt from an experiment with real data is then used to run the SAC-SMA model. Several scenarios on state or joint state-parameter updating with TB data assimilation to SNOW-17 and SAC-SMA models were analyzed, and the results show potential benefit for operational streamflow forecasting.     

A bottom-up methodology for integrating underwater video and acoustic mapping for seafloor substrate classification

A method that links acoustic mapping data to underwater video observations of seafloor substrate is described for use in defining fish habitat. Three study areas in the Aleutian Islands were acoustically mapped using sidescan and multibeam sonar. The sidescan sonar data were used to compute average reflectivity (hardness) and seafloor complexity. The multibeam depth data were used to determine local slope, rugosity (seafloor roughness) and relative height. Underwater video was collected from three to four transects in each of the three study areas. The underwater video was used to classify the seafloor into nine observed primary and secondary substrate classes. A statistical relationship between the observed (video) and the remotely sensed (acoustic) seafloor characteristics was estimated using a classification tree. The best classification tree utilized rugosity, reflectivity and complexity data and produced misclassification rates of less than 25% overall. Mean grain size of sediment samples was not strongly related to the acoustic data. Error rates were highest for those substrate classes with the smallest number of data points. The results highlight the need for adequate sample sizes and coverage of all potential substrate types when groundtruthing acoustic maps.     

全自动地震波输入动三轴装置技术指标和功能测试

本文介绍了新研制成功的全自动地震波输入动三轴装置以及其技术指标和功能测试的过程、结果。新动三轴装置为全自动液压伺服控制，具有力和位移两种实验方式，具有常规静动功能和任意波输入功能，初步实现了联机系统的硬件配套。新动三轴装置有几个显著特点：（1）实现了动三轴系统的全数字闭环控制，实现了系统围压、反压、液压源的自动控制和系统参数的自动测量，有效地提高了系统的频宽并改善了系统精度；（2）实现了力、位移控制下的数字式滞后校正，提高了力、位移控制的静态精度，使研制的动三轴具有静态精度高、动态频响宽的特点；（3）实现了动三轴系统控制的全自动化；（4）实现了具有柔性负载的力控制系统补偿，使力控制下系统的频宽到20Hz，很好地实现了地震波实验功能；（5）实现了力、位移控制的软切换，扩展了仪器功能；（6）具有专为土工实验设计的Windows环境下实验控制界面和系统调节界面，操作方便。     

The International Laser Ranging Service and its support for IGGOS

The International Laser Ranging Service (ILRS) was established in September 1998 as a service within the IAG to support programs in geodetic, geophysical, and lunar research activities and to provide data products to the International Earth Rotation Service (IERS) in support of its prime objectives. Now in operation for 5 years, the ILRS develops: (1) the standards and specifications necessary for product consistency and (2) the priorities and tracking strategies required to maximize network efficiency. The service collects, merges, analyzes, archives and distributes satellite and lunar laser ranging data to satisfy a variety of scientific, engineering, and operational needs and encourages the application of new technologies to enhance the quality, quantity, and cost effectiveness of its data products. The ILRS works with: (1) the global network to improve station performance; (2) new satellite missions in the design and building of retroreflector targets to maximize data quality and quantity and (3) science programs to optimize scientific data yield. The ILRS Central Bureau maintains a comprehensive web site as the primary vehicle for the distribution of information within the ILRS community. The site, which can be accessed at: http://ilrs.gsfc.nasa.gov is also available at mirrored sites at the Communications Research Laboratory (CRL) in Tokyo and the European Data Center (EDC) in Munich.During the last 2 years, the ILRS has addressed very important challenges: (1) data from the field stations are now submitted hourly and made available immediately through the data centers for access by the user community; (2) tracking on low satellites has been significantly improved through the sub-daily issue of predictions, drag functions, and the real-time exchange of time biases; (3) analysis products are now submitted in SINEX format for compatibility with the other space geodesy techniques; (4) the Analysis Working Group is heavily engaged in Pilot Projects as it works toward an ILRS “standard” global solution and (5) SLR has significantly increased its participation in the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) activity, which is important to the success of IGGOS.     

X线检查发现病理性骨折对骨肉瘤预后的影响分析

目的:通过荟萃分析研究骨肉瘤患者局部复发率、截肢率、外科手术边界范围和新辅助化疗敏感性与发生病理性骨折之间有无相关性,为临床评估骨肉瘤患者的预后提供依据。方法:计算机检索Pub Med、Cochrane、EMBASE and the Web of Knowledge数据库英文文献,检索年限均为建库至2016年10月15日,辅以其他检索方式,收集探索病理性骨折与骨肉瘤患者预后指标之间相关性的临床研究。由两名研究者进行筛选、评价质量及提取资料,并用Review manager 5.2软件进行荟萃分析、发表偏倚分析等统计分析。结果:共纳入成人相关研究5篇,总计1 502人,荟萃分析结果显示高复发率和高截肢率与发生病理性骨折有关（复发率:n=1 018;OR=1.83;95%CI:1.06~3.15;P=0.03;截肢率:n=1 502;OR=1.84;95%CI:1.25~2.72;P=0.002）,而并未发现外科手术边界和化疗敏感性与发生病理性骨折有关（外科边界:n=1 501;OR=0.74;95%CI:0.39~1.40;P=0.35;敏感性:n=1 420;OR=1.41;95%CI:0.98~2.05;P=0.07）。根据异质性分析结果选用随机或非随机化模型。结论:骨肉瘤患者中X线检查发现病理性骨折预示高复发率和截肢率,预示预后不良,但并不影响化疗的敏感性和获得满意的手术切除范围。      

A Fast and Reliable Method for Surface Wave Tomography

—?We describe a method to invert regional or global scale surface-wave group or phase-velocity measurements to estimate 2-D models of the distribution and strength of isotropic and azimuthally anisotropic velocity variations. Such maps have at least two purposes in monitoring the nuclear Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT): (1) They can be used as data to estimate the shear velocity of the crust and uppermost mantle and topography on internal interfaces which are important in event location, and (2) they can be used to estimate surface-wave travel-time correction surfaces to be used in phase-matched filters designed to extract low signal-to-noise surface-wave packets.¶The purpose of this paper is to describe one useful path through the large number of options available in an inversion of surface-wave data. Our method appears to provide robust and reliable dispersion maps on both global and regional scales. The technique we describe has a number of features that have motivated its development and commend its use: (1) It is developed in a spherical geometry; (2) the region of inference is defined by an arbitrary simple closed curve so that the method works equally well on local, regional, or global scales; (3) spatial smoothness and model amplitude constraints can be applied simultaneously; (4) the selection of model regularization and the smoothing parameters is highly flexible which allows for the assessment of the effect of variations in these parameters; (5) the method allows for the simultaneous estimation of spatial resolution and amplitude bias of the images; and (6) the method optionally allows for the estimation of azimuthal anisotropy.¶We present examples of the application of this technique to observed surface-wave group and phase velocities globally and regionally across Eurasia and Antarctica.     

半湿润半干旱流域空间组合模型研究

在半湿润半干旱地区,下垫面条件复杂,产流机制混合多变,而现有的水文模型由于其固定的结构和模式,无法灵活地模拟不同下垫面特征的洪水过程.本文利用CN-地形指数法将流域划分为超渗主导子流域和蓄满主导子流域.将新安江模型(XAJ)、新安江-Green-Ampt模型(XAJG)和Green-Ampt模型(GA)相结合,在子流域分类的基础上构建空间组合模型(SCMs),并在半湿润的东湾流域和半干旱的志丹流域进行检验.结果表明:东湾流域的参数由水文模型来主导;而志丹流域的参数受主导径流影响很大.在东湾流域,偏蓄满的模型模拟结果优于偏超渗的模型,且SCM2模型(XAJ和XAJG的组合模型)的模拟效果最好(径流深合格率为75%,洪峰合格率75%);而SCM5模型(GA和XAJG的组合模型)在以超渗产流为主的志丹流域模拟最好(径流深合格率53.3%,洪峰合格率53.3%).在半干旱半湿润流域,SCMs模型结构灵活,在地形和土壤数据的驱动下,具有更合理的模型结构和参数,模拟精度较高,适应性较强.     

Institutional Challenges for National Groundwater Governance: Policies and Issues

Understanding the issues surrounding groundwater governance is a precondition for developing policy recommendations for both national and transboundary groundwater governance. This review discusses groundwater attributes relevant to the design of governance systems and provides a systematic review of current national groundwater governance differentiated by various policy instruments. The synthesis of both resource system characteristics and experience with policy instruments allows us to conceptualize institutional aspects of groundwater governance. This leads to six institutional aspects: (1) voluntary compliance; (2) tradition and mental models; (3) administrative responsibility and bureaucratic inertia; (4) conflict resolution mechanisms; (5) political economy; and (6) information deficits. Each of these issues embodies institutional challenges for national and international policy implementation.     

Short- and Long-Term Earthquake Forecasts for California and Nevada

We present estimates of future earthquake rate density (probability per unit area, time, and magnitude) on a 0.1-degree grid for a region including California and Nevada, based only on data from past earthquakes. Our long-term forecast is not explicitly time-dependent, but it can be updated at any time to incorporate information from recent earthquakes. The present version, founded on several decades worth of data, is suitable for testing without updating over a five-year period as part of the experiment conducted by the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability  (CSEP). The short-term forecast is meant to be updated daily and tested against similar models by CSEP. The short-term forecast includes a fraction of our long-term one plus time-dependent contributions from all previous earthquakes. Those contributions decrease with time according to the Omori law: proportional to the reciprocal of the elapsed time. Both forecasts estimate rate density using a radially symmetric spatial smoothing kernel decreasing approximately as the reciprocal of the square of epicentral distance, weighted according to the magnitude of each past earthquake. We made two versions of both the long- and short-term forecasts, based on the Advanced National Seismic System  (ANSS) and Preliminary Determinations of Epicenters (PDE) catalogs, respectively. The two versions are quite consistent, but for testing purposes we prefer those based on the ANSS catalog since it covers a longer time interval, is complete to a lower magnitude threshold and has more precise locations. Both forecasts apply to shallow earthquakes only (depth 25 km or less) and assume a tapered Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution extending to a lower threshold of 4.0.     

Integrating climate and local factors for geomorphological distribution models

Earth surface processes (ESPs) drive landscape development and ecosystem processes in high‐latitude regions by creating spatially heterogeneous abiotic and biotic conditions. Ongoing global change may potentially alter the activity of ESPs through feedback on ground conditions, vegetation and the carbon cycle. Consequently, accurate modeling of ESPs is important for improving understanding of the current and future distributions of these processes. The aims of this study were to: (1) integrate climate and multiple local predictors to develop realistic ensemble models for the four key ESPs occurring at high latitudes (slope processes, cryoturbation, nivation and palsa mires) based on the outputs of 10 modern statistical techniques; (2) test whether models of ESPs are improved by incorporating topography, soil and vegetation predictors to climate‐only models; (3) examine the relative importance of these variables in a multivariate setting. Overall, the models showed high transferability with the mean area under curve of a receiver operating characteristics (AUC) ranging from 0.83 to 0.96 and true skill statistics (TSS) from 0.52 to 0.87 for the most complex models. Even though the analyses highlighted the importance of the climate variables as the most influential predictors, three out of four models benefitted from the inclusion of local predictors. We conclude that disregarding local topography and soil conditions in spatial models of ESPs may cause a significant source of error in geomorphological distribution models. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Syringe and Cartridge Method for Down-Hole Sampling for Trace Organics in Ground Water

A newly developed technique which allows the down-hole sampling and subsequent analysis of ground water for trace organic contaminants was tested during an investigation of contaminant migration at an inactive landfill site in Burlington, Ontario, Canada. The sampling device, which is lowered down piezometers with a tube, consists of a small cylindrical cartridge of sorbent material attached to a syringe. Vacuum or pressure applied at the surface controls the movement of the plunger in the syringe. The volume of the syringe determines the volume of sample water that passes through the cartridge. The cartridge is removed from the syringe at the surface. One cartridge is used for each sampling; the syringe is reusable. The residual water in the cartridge is removed in the laboratory, and the cartridge is desorbed to a fused silica capillary column for analysis by gas chromatography (GC). The analyses discussed here were performed on a GC/mass spectrometer/data system (GC/MS/DS). Of the many organic compounds that were identified in the samples, three compounds were clearly landfill-related: 1,1,1-trichloroethane, chlorobenzene, and para-dichlorobenzene. The three compounds were found at levels substantially above blank levels in 9, 5, and 5 piezometers, respectively. The average concentrations were 14., 5.3, and 0.88μg/1 (ppb), respectively. The pooled coefficients of variation for the analyses for the three compounds were 27., 6.9, and 6.4%, respectively. The volatility of 1,1,1-trichloroethane was probably the cause of the greater variability in its analytical data. The main advantages of the technique over most conventional sampling methods include: (1) down-hole sampling in a manner which minimizes the potential for volatilization losses; (2) avoidance of passage of the sample through long sections of tubing that may contaminate the sample or cause adsorptive losses; (3) convenience of sample handling, storage, and shipping; and (4) high sensitivity.     

Inversion and space-time-averaging algorithms for ScaRaB (Scanner for the Earth Radiation Budget). Comparison with ERBE

Establishment of a uniform long-term record of “top-of-the atmosphere” (TOA) Earth radiation budget (ERB) components, on a scale appropriate to the study of cloud radiation interactions, requires that the data obtained from different observation missions satisfy two basic conditions: (1) the broadband shortwave (SW:0.2-4 μm) and longwave (LW: 4–50 μm) radiances must be demonstrably made on the same absolute scale; and (2) the methods used first to convert the instantaneous (filtered) radiances into (unfiltered) SW and LW radiant fluxes, and then to perform the space-time integrations to yield regional monthly means, must be consistent. Here we consider mainly the second point, with regard to the ScaRaB/Meteor mission in orbit since 25 January 1994 and observing the Earth since 24 February 1994. The objective of this mission is to determine the TOA ERB components and so to provide a continuation of the NASA ERBE scanner mission (November 1984-February 1990). We show how results compatible with ERBE can be obtained by taking into account the instrumental characteristics and the satellite orbit parameters: spectral response of the broadband channels, Earth local time of observation. Considering the spectral response of the ScaRaB broadband channels, we show that no spectral correction is required in the longwave domain, whereas a correction of +4.5% must be applied in the shortwave domain for clear and partly cloudy ocean, in order to compensate for underestimation at the shortest wavelengths. Despite possible differences between ERBE and ScaRaB procedures in values assumed for certain parameters of the scene/cloud identifications, application of these procedures to the same set of ERBE data (spectrally corrected, i.e. “unfiltered” radiances) shows that scene identification agreement is close to 90% and that, where there is disagreement, resulting differences in LW fluxes are negligible, those in SW fluxes small. We show that regional and global mean quantities are in excellent agreement, considering that differences between (ERBS+NOAA-9) and (NOAA-9 only) results may be taken as illustrating time-sampling effects. We find that biases may occur from the undersampling, specifically for the night-time clear-sky estimation over land and desert. Preliminary results using ScaaB data of March 1994 show that clear-sky regional estimates may be less numerous than in ERBE scanner products, due to either the larger pixel size or the auxiliary parameters used in the scene identification, and that expected uncertainties in the global monthly mean values depend mainly on the instrument radiometric calibration.     

A crystal-chemical basis for Pb retention and fission-track annealing systematics in U-bearing minerals, with implications for geochronology

This study develops an empirical crystal-chemical framework for systematizing the kinetics of Pb loss and fission-track annealing in U-bearing minerals. Ionic porosity, Z (the fraction of a mineral's unit-cell volume not occupied by ions) potentially accounts for kinetic behavior by monitoring mean metal-oxygen bond length/strength. Various tests of a general kinetics-porosity relationship are presented, based upon diverse mineral data including: (1) Pb diffusion parameters; (2) measured closure temperatures (T_C) for fission-track annealing and (3) retentivities of both Pb and fission tracks, from apparent-age data. Every kinetic parameter (including T_C and mineral age for both the U/Pb and fission-track systems) is inversely correlated with Z within the sub-assemblage: zircon (Z ≈ 29%), titanite ( 34%) and apatite ( 38%). Assuming a diffusional closure model, Pb isotopic transport phenomena are described by a T_C-Z scale “calibrated” with field-based T_C data for titanite (≥ 680 ± 20°C) and apatite ( 500°C). Extrapolation of this scale yields T_C estimates for the following minerals: staurolite (T_C ≥ 1060°C, Z ≈ 25%); garnet (≥ 1010°C, 26.5%); zircon (≥900°C); monazite, xenotime, and epidote (≥ 750°C, 32%); and Ca-clinopyroxene (≥ 670 ± 30°C, 34 ± 1%, depending on composition). These empirical results imply that a (U/)Pb/Pb date for staurolite or garnet records the time of mineral growth, not post-growth isotopic closure, as also concluded in recent field studies. Because Z systematizes fission-track annealing, this recrystallization process, like volume-diffusion, must also be rate-limited by the strength of chemical bonds. The extent to which other recrystallization processes are likewise rate-limited is important to U/Pb geochronology because they potentially compete with diffusion as mechanisms for Pb-isotopic resetting in nature.