Landslide activity as a geoindicator in Italy: significance and new perspectives from remote sensing

Landslide activity responds to rapid environmental changes and represents a relevant geoindicator in mountainous or hilly areas. This paper discusses the socio-economic relevance of landslide hazard in Italy and the problems encountered in establishing relationships between landslide frequency, climate and vegetation changes at different time scales. Landslides blocking a river channel have been carefully taken into account because they are usually characterized by high intensities (with regard to the involved masses and movement velocities) and their occurrences are often datable via radiocarbon dating. This is due to the recovery of organic matter in the landslide dammed lakes. For these reasons they can be considered important geoindicators in the wider category of slope failures. The marked effects of the anthropogenic activity on slope instability processes in the last 50 years are discussed with reference to two case histories: the Chianti hills in Tuscany and the Cinque Terre National Park in Liguria. Finally, two novel techniques of remote sensing are proposed as tools for a systematic monitoring of slope instability at different time and spatial scales. Both techniques are based on the interferometric synthetic aperture radar (SAR) technology and differ on the type of platform (satellite and ground-based) used to acquire data.     

An acoustic emission landslide early warning system for communities in low-income and middle-income countries

Early warning systems for slope instability are needed to alert users of accelerating slope deformation behaviour, enable evacuation of vulnerable people, and conduct timely repair and maintenance of critical infrastructure. Communities exposed to landslide risk in low- and middle-income countries seldom currently instrument and monitor slopes to provide a warning of instability because existing techniques are complex and prohibitively expensive. Research and field trials have demonstrated conclusively that acoustic emission (AE) monitoring can be an effective approach to detect accelerating slope movements and to subsequently communicate warnings to users. The objective of this study was to develop and assess a simple, robust, low-cost AE monitoring system to warn of incipient landslides, which can be widely deployed and operated by communities globally to help protect vulnerable people. This paper describes a novel AE measurement sensor that has been designed and developed with the cost constrained to a few hundred dollars (US). Results are presented from physical model experiments that demonstrate performance of the AE system in measuring accelerating deformation behaviour, with quantifiable relationships between AE and displacement rates. Exceedance of a pre-determined trigger level of AE can be used to communicate an alarm to users in order to alert them of a slope failure. Use of this EWS approach by communities worldwide would reduce the number of fatalities caused by landslides.     

Use of satellite remote sensing data in the mapping of global landslide susceptibility

Satellite remote sensing data has significant potential use in analysis of natural hazards such as landslides. Relying on the recent advances in satellite remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) techniques, this paper aims to map landslide susceptibility over most of the globe using a GIS-based weighted linear combination method. First, six relevant landslide-controlling factors are derived from geospatial remote sensing data and coded into a GIS system. Next, continuous susceptibility values from low to high are assigned to each of the six factors. Second, a continuous scale of a global landslide susceptibility index is derived using GIS weighted linear combination based on each factor’s relative significance to the process of landslide occurrence (e.g., slope is the most important factor, soil types and soil texture are also primary-level parameters, while elevation, land cover types, and drainage density are secondary in importance). Finally, the continuous index map is further classified into six susceptibility categories. Results show the hot spots of landslide-prone regions include the Pacific Rim, the Himalayas and South Asia, Rocky Mountains, Appalachian Mountains, Alps, and parts of the Middle East and Africa. India, China, Nepal, Japan, the USA, and Peru are shown to have landslide-prone areas. This first-cut global landslide susceptibility map forms a starting point to provide a global view of landslide risks and may be used in conjunction with satellite-based precipitation information to potentially detect areas with significant landslide potential due to heavy rainfall.     

Scale-invariance of soil moisture variability and its implications for the frequency-size distribution of landslides

Power spectral analyses of soil moisture variability are carried out from scales of 100 m to 10 km on the microwave remotely-sensed data from the Washita experimental watershed during 1992. The power spectrum S(k) has an approximate power-law dependence on wave number k with the exponent −1.8. This behavior is consistent with the behavior of a stochastic differential equation for soil moisture at a point, and it has important consequences for the frequency-size distribution of landslides. We present the cumulative frequency-size distributions of landslides induced by precipitation in Japan and Bolivia as well as landslides triggered by the 1994 Northridge, California earthquake. Large landslides in these regions, despite being triggered by different mechanisms, have a cumulative frequency-size distribution with a power-law dependence on area with an exponent ranging from −1.5 to −2. We use a soil moisture field with the above statistics in conjunction with a slope stability analysis to model the frequency-size distribution of landslides. In our model, landslides occur when a threshold shear stress dependent on cohesion, pore pressure, internal friction and slope angle is exceeded. This implies a threshold dependence on soil moisture and slope angle since cohesion, pore pressure and internal friction are primarily dependent on soil moisture. The cumulative frequency-size distribution of domains of shear stress greater than a threshold value with soil moisture modeled as above and topography modeled as a Brownian walk is a power-law function of area with an exponent of −1.8 for large landslide areas. This distribution is similar to that observed for landslides. The effect of strong ground motion from earthquakes lowers the shear stress necessary for failure, but does not change the frequency-size distribution of failed areas. This is consistent with observations. This work suggests that remote sensing of soil moisture can be of great importance in monitoring landslide hazards and proposes a specific quantitative model for landslide hazard assessment.     

Topography and volume effects on travel distance of surface failure

The authors investigated factors affecting the travel distance of a surface failure and developed a simple model for estimating the distance based on soil properties and topographic factor. The authors conducted field surveys and various soil tests for a number of surface failures that occurred during torrential rain at the end of August 1998 in southern Fukushima Prefecture, Japan. The authors studied the effects of various factors such as landslide volume, pore-water pressure, slope inclination, and the internal friction near the slip surfaces on the travel distances. The analyses showed no clear relationship between landslide volume and equivalent coefficient of friction, which was likely attributable to the very small range of volume compared to other studies on catastrophic landslides. The effect of excess pore-water pressure was likely negligible because undrained conditions were not to be maintained at the shallow flow depths. A positive correlation was shown between slope inclination and equivalent coefficient of friction. This correlation was attributable to two factors, one was positive correlation between the internal friction on the slip surface and slope inclination, and the other was the kinetic energy dissipation of moving mass that occurred at the inclination changing point between a slope and a sedimentary flat surface. The authors then developed a predictive model for critical flow inclination of landslide by installing the factors of soil properties and slope inclination factors. The model predicted equivalent coefficient of frictions, which were very similar to the observed values, thus verifying the effectiveness of the model.     

碎裂岩石路堑边坡稳定性评价与安全防护设计

以湖北省209省道宣恩段东门关隧道进口段的典型碎裂结构路堑岩质边坡为例,针对该边坡工程地质、水文地质、岩体结构特征以及前期变形破坏迹象,判断出边坡的变形破坏模式。在此基础上,通过现行规范推荐的不平衡推力法,对边坡的稳定性进行评价,并进行了安全防护设计。在设计过程中,针对常规技术容易出现的冒顶剪出、桩间土挤出和锚索预应力损失衰减等问题,提出避开使用此类技术,而采用削坡、锚杆、格构以及挡墙等措施,试图为解决碎裂结构岩石路堑边坡的分析与防护难题提出一种新的思路。     

中国滑坡降雨试验的研究现状与发展趋势

滑坡是世界上分布最广、危害最严重的地质灾害类型。降雨等因素作用下滑坡沿着滑动面发生剪切大变形,造成抗滑结构发生剪切破坏,然而目前抗滑结构设计未能充分考虑滑坡剪切大变形的静态、刚性设计,亟需开展滑坡-韧性锚固体系演化机理的深入研究。本文基于塑性变形理论提出了一种韧性锚固结构,建立了其力学模型,并以开挖后种蜂场滑坡为原型,设计了模型试验,对比分析了有无锚杆加固下边坡体变形、土压力等多源数据变化规律,结果发现：(1)韧性锚杆加固作用下边坡内测点侧向应力分布与曲线形态发生显著变化,边坡抗滑力增大了20%。(2)边坡剪切大变形过程中,韧性锚杆轴力呈周期性变化,与理论相符。(3)韧性锚杆明显减少了边坡位移及变形破坏范围,滑动范围减少了约25%。     

GIS-based weights-of-evidence modelling of rainfall-induced landslides in small catchments for landslide susceptibility mapping

Landslide susceptibility mapping is a vital tool for disaster management and planning development activities in mountainous terrains of tropical and subtropical environments. In this paper, the weights-of-evidence modelling was applied, within a geographical information system (GIS), to derive landslide susceptibility map of two small catchments of Shikoku, Japan. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the importance of weights-of-evidence modelling in the generation of landslide susceptibility maps in relatively small catchments having an area less than 4 sq km. For the study area in Moriyuki and Monnyu catchments, northeast Shikoku Island in west Japan, a data set was generated at scale 1:5,000. Relevant thematic maps representing various factors (e.g. slope, aspect, relief, flow accumulation, soil depth, soil type, land use and distance to road) that are related to landslide activity were generated using field data and GIS techniques. Both catchments have homogeneous geology and only consist of Cretaceous granitic rock. Thus, bedrock geology was not considered in data layering during GIS analysis. Success rates were also estimated to evaluate the accuracy of landslide susceptibility maps and the weights-of-evidence modelling was found useful in landslide susceptibility mapping of small catchments.     

Soil slip susceptibility assessment using mechanical–hydrological approach and GIS techniques: an application in the Apuan Alps (Italy)

This study aims at contributing to the soil slip susceptibility assessment in a typical basin of the southern Apuan Alps, Italy. On June 1996, this basin (Cardoso Torrent, 13 km² large) was hit by an extremely heavy rainstorm (maximum intensity of about 160 mm/h), which caused many landslides (debris slide–debris flows) and valley bottom flows (hyperconcentrated flows), destruction and deaths. Detailed surveys provided the characterization of the main factors (geological, geomorphologic, hydrological, hydrogeological and geotechnical) which contributed in triggering landslides. In order to evaluate the soil slip susceptibility in this area, a physically based model was applied and a GIS analysis of digital elevation model was performed. This approach couples a mechanical model based on an infinite slope form of the Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion, and a steady-state hydrological one (a modified version of Shalstab, which considers the cohesion of the debris material potentially involved in landsliding). GIS techniques allowed evaluating the effects of topographic convergence and drainage area on slope failure. In this way, based on the infiltration rate, the triggering of the June 1996 landslides was simulated and the critical rainfall thresholds assessed at about 200–250 mm/24 h.     

Probabilistic analysis of landslide potential of an inclined uniform soil layer of infinite length: theorem

A critical relation for mobilization (failure) of an inclined, uniform soil layer is developed, based on the requirement for balancing the driving stress and the resistance stress acting on the soil layer. Taking into consideration of the uncertainties of parameters of the considered soil layer, the equation of the failure probability (Eq. 18) and the equation of the critical slope at various probabilities of failure (Eq. 22) for the soil layer by applying the first-order second-moment method (FOSM) were developed. The failure probabilities at various mean relative water depths subject to the upper and lower values of the coefficients of variations of parameters and two inclined angles of the soil layers are also estimated by using the Monte Carlo simulation method (MCSM) as well as by using FOSM for comparisons. The results obtained by FOSM are in good agreement with that obtained by MCSM, but the former is more efficient. Given the mean values and the coefficients of variation of related parameters of the soil layer, one can easily estimate the failure probability and the critical failure slope of the soil layer by applying the equations or graphs developed in the present study.     

Fuzzy-based method for landslide hazard assessment in active seismic zone of Himalaya

Landslides in Himalaya cause widespread damage in terms of property and human lives. It the present study, an attempt is made to derive information on causative parameters and preparation of landslide-susceptible map using fuzzy data integration in one of the seismically active region of Garhwal Himalaya that was recently devastated by a huge landslide. High-resolution remotely sensed data products acquired from Indian Remote Sensing Satellite before and after the landslide event were processed to improve interpretability and derivation of causative parameters. Spatial data sets such as lithology, rock weathering, geomorphology, lineaments, drainage, land use, anthropogenic factor, soil type and depth, slope gradient, and slope aspect were integrated using fuzzy gamma operator. The final map was reclassified in to five classes such as highly to lowly susceptible classes based on cumulative cutoff. The result shows around 72% of known landslide areas including the large Uttarkashi landslide in the high and very high susceptibility classes comprising of only 37% of the total area. The precipitation data from ground- and satellite-based observations were compared; the precipitation threshold and the role of seismic activity were analyzed for initiation of landslide.     

Field variability of landslide model parameters

 A data set of parameters (slope, soil depth and soil shear strength) relevant to spatially distributed modelling of shallow landslides triggered by rain and snowmelt events was determined from field measurements in 250 grid elements of dimensions 25 m (downslope)×10 m (across slope) in an area of 250 m×250 m on a hillslope in Scotland. These data provide an unusually detailed basis for the evaluation of spatial variability and uncertainty in model parameterisation. The variations in slope and soil strength are represented adequately by normal distributions; a Weibull distribution is suggested for the soil depth data. The factor of safety calculated at each point in the grid was shown partially to identify observed landslides, with a number of false predictions of occurrence. Trend analysis and semivariogram analysis of the data set suggest that the use of kriging could improve upon this approach to landslide prediction by providing areal estimates of parameters at the grid element scale with associated error bounds. Received: 30 October 1996 · Accepted: 25 June 1997     

A review of assessing landslide frequency for hazard zoning purposes

The probability of occurrence is one of the key components of the risk equation. To assess this probability in landslide risk analysis, two different approaches have been traditionally used. In the first one, the occurrence of landslides is obtained by computing the probability of failure of a slope (or the reactivation of existing landslides). In the second one, which is the objective of this paper, the probability is obtained by means of the statistical analysis of past landslide events, specifically by the assessment of the past landslide frequency. In its turn, the temporal frequency of landslides may be determined based on the occurrence of landslides or from the recurrence of the landslide triggering events over a regional extent. Hazard assessment using frequency of landslides, which may be taken either individually or collectively, requires complete records of landslide events, which is difficult in some areas. Its main advantage is that it may be easily implemented for zoning. Frequency assessed from the recurrence of landslide triggers, does not require landslide series but it is necessary to establish reliable relations between the trigger, its magnitude and the occurrence of the landslides. The frequency of the landslide triggers can be directly used for landslide zoning. However, because it does not provide information on the spatial distribution of the potential landslides, it has to be combined with landslide susceptibility (spatial probability analysis) to perform landslide hazard zoning. Both the scale of work and availability of data affect the results of the landslide frequency and restrict the spatial resolution of frequency zoning as well. Magnitude–frequency relationships are fundamental elements for the quantitative assessment of both hazard and risk.     

The mechanism of soil failures along cracks subjected to water infiltration

A field irrigation test was conducted at a crack-developed loess slope in Heifangtai, China, to study the slope instability that was caused by water infiltration. In the field test, the formation of sinkholes was considered a major type of soil failure. To investigate the mechanism of soil failures along cracks caused by water infiltration, a mechanical-hydraulic coupled analysis was conducted using a finite difference program. A moving boundary algorithm was proposed and adopted in the numerical model. Different draining rates of water in the crack were studied. The failure mechanism was identified as: the wetting-induced loss in shear strength of the soil, and the rapid loss of lateral support provided by the water during the dropping stage of water level. Under such conditions, a sinkhole is likely to form in the field.     

Landslide susceptibility zonation mapping and its validation in part of Garhwal Lesser Himalaya, India, using binary logistic regression analysis and receiver operating characteristic curve method

A landslide susceptibility zonation (LSZ) map helps to understand the spatial distribution of slope failure probability in an area and hence it is useful for effective landslide hazard mitigation measures. Such maps can be generated using qualitative or quantitative approaches. The present study is an attempt to utilise a multivariate statistical method called binary logistic regression (BLR) analysis for LSZ mapping in part of the Garhwal Lesser Himalaya, India, lying close to the Main Boundary Thrust (MBT). This method gives the freedom to use categorical and continuous predictor variables together in a regression analysis. Geographic Information System has been used for preparing the database on causal factors of slope instability and landslide locations as well as for carrying out the spatial modelling of landslide susceptibility. A forward stepwise logistic regression analysis using maximum likelihood estimation method has been used in the regression. The constant and the coefficients of the predictor variables retained by the regression model have been used to calculate the probability of slope failure for the entire study area. The predictive logistic regression model has been validated by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, which has given 91.7% accuracy for the developed BLR model.     

西藏樟木堆积体结构及其稳定性

樟木口岸是我国与尼泊尔王国之间唯一的陆路通商口岸,也是西藏地区目前唯一具有一定规模的国际贸易口岸,但该口岸坐落于一大型堆积体之上,长期面临地质灾害的威胁。为进一步论证该堆积体的稳定问题,本文在野外调查基础上,对该堆积体的工程地质结构、岩土类型以及斜坡的变形破坏规律和稳定性进行了初步分析。结果表明：该堆积体并非单一土质结构,尚存在冰水堆积等类型,斜坡发生整体滑坡的可能性小,以地形坡度、人类工程活动等控制的局部滑移为主。     

岩质边坡声发射特征及失稳预报判据研究

在分析岩质边坡失稳过程中岩体力学性质和声发射产生的微观机理基础上,通过岩石声发射试验和岩质边坡声发射监测实例,研究了岩质边坡声发射特征,提出了岩质边坡失稳破坏的基本力学分类及其声发射的监测预报方法和判据,实现对岩质边坡失稳的预测预报。研究结果表明,边坡破坏前存在一次或多次声发射高峰。应用AE技术可以确定边坡在变形过程中应力集中活跃区;以抗滑力减小为主的岩质边坡,其失稳预报判据为大事件率在15次/ min以上,预报时间为几分钟至数小时。以下滑力增大为主的岩质边坡失稳的预报判据为大事件率在26次/ min以上,破坏时间为第一次声发射峰值期后的30～45 d。     

Determination and application of the weights for landslide susceptibility mapping using an artificial neural network

The purpose of this study is the development, application, and assessment of probability and artificial neural network methods for assessing landslide susceptibility in a chosen study area. As the basic analysis tool, a Geographic Information System (GIS) was used for spatial data management and manipulation. Landslide locations and landslide-related factors such as slope, curvature, soil texture, soil drainage, effective thickness, wood type, and wood diameter were used for analyzing landslide susceptibility. A probability method was used for calculating the rating of the relative importance of each factor class to landslide occurrence. For calculating the weight of the relative importance of each factor to landslide occurrence, an artificial neural network method was developed. Using these methods, the landslide susceptibility index (LSI) was calculated using the rating and weight, and a landslide susceptibility map was produced using the index. The results of the landslide susceptibility analysis, with and without weights, were confirmed from comparison with the landslide location data. The comparison result with weighting was better than the results without weighting. The calculated weight and rating can be used to landslide susceptibility mapping.     

类软土滑坡滑动带的确定

类软土是一种特殊意义上的软土,它与一般沉积软土比较,在形成原因、分布范围、物质组成等其他特性上有区别;由其构成的类软土滑坡则具有普通滑坡不具有的特征。以京珠高速粤南段K108类滑坡为例,介绍了滑坡的地层岩性、构造特征、水文地质特征;应用位移监测方法查明滑坡有五层滑动带,滑面成近于圆弧形的勺形,并对滑坡的产生原因及滑动过程进行了分析,得出降雨和边坡的开挖是导致滑坡的直接诱因。     

基于滑带土应变软化的滑坡渐进破坏研究

滑坡的渐进破坏是量变积累到质变的破坏过程,一般是由坡脚开始破坏,并沿着某一软弱面不断破坏,直至形成贯通的滑动带。为了研究峰值强度与残余强度对滑坡失稳的影响,本文对滑带土采用应变软化模型。首先利用二维算例说明了滑坡的滑动面形态、塑性区与位移量的变化规律,反演了滑坡在二维空间内的渐进破坏过程,并根据位移变化情况,将滑坡的失稳过程划分为蠕动阶段、挤压阶段与滑动阶段3个阶段。在二维算例的基础上,采用滑带土应变软化理论进一步研究滑坡在三维空间内的渐进破坏过程与破坏规律,说明了滑坡在三维空间内,首先在坡脚与滑坡周界处形成塑性区,之后塑性区沿着滑坡周界向对称面增大,最后形成贯通的塑性区。将二维与三维算例相对比,说明了三维滑带土应变软化模型更真实的反应滑坡渐进破坏的全过程。因此,采用滑带土应变软化模型能较真实的反映坡渐进破坏的过程,为滑坡的预警与监测提供了一定的理论依据。