Estimating by inverse modeling the release of radioactive substances (<Superscript>133</Superscript>Xe, <Superscript>131</Superscript>I,and <Superscript>137</Superscript>Cs) into the atmosphere from Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster

The estimate of the release of radioactive substances (¹³³Xe, ¹³¹I, and ¹³⁷Cs) into the atmosphere from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster is presented. It was obtained using the FLEXPART Lagrangian dispersion model and the data of local ground-based measurements of radiation dose rate. The computation period covers the active phase of the nuclear disaster that lasted 20 days after the tsunami. To get the quantitative characteristics of emissions of radioactive substances, the inverse modeling based on the Bayesian approach is used. The emissions were estimated for three altitudes. The total emissions are equal to 2.1 + 0.4 kg (14 000 + 2700 PBq) for ¹³³Xe, (3.8 + 0.4) x 10^-2 kg (174 + + 18 PBq) for ¹³¹I, and 5.7 + 1.2 kg (18 + 4 PBq) for ¹³⁷Cs that is consistent with the results of other studies. Retrieved emissions were used to provide the forward modeling for mapping the areas of radionuclide deposition. The developed method of retrieving the emission of radioactive substances makes a useful instrument that operationally estimates and localizes the areas of potential pollution in case of nuclear accidents and could be used for making decisions on the population evacuation.     

Description of radiation conditions and evaluation of the date of <Superscript>137</Superscript>Cs release to the atmosphere using the radionuclide transfer model coupled with the forecasts by the mesoscale hydrodynamic model

The estimates of ¹³⁷Cs emissions from the accident happened in Elektrostal at the beginning of April 12, 2013 are presented. The transport of radionuclides and their dry and wet deposition on the surface are computed using the Lagrangian stochastic model of the NOSTRADAMUS software package worked out by Nuclear Safety Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences. Prognostic fields of wind (horizontal and vertical components) in the lower troposphere, precipitation, and vertical and horizontal turbulence diffusivity coefficients in the lower atmosphere (up to 4 km) were used as input data. Prognostic fields were obtained using the WRF-ARW numerical mesoscale model.     

Concentration of <Superscript>18</Superscript>O in precipitation over Moscow in 2014

The series of δ¹⁸O values is presented for all precipitation events in Moscow in 2014. Precipitation samples were taken at the observation site of the Meteorological Observatory of Lomonosov Moscow State University (MSU MO), and the isotopic analysis was carried out in the isotopic laboratory of the Department of Geography of MSU. The concentration of stable ¹⁸O in precipitation over Moscow in 2014 varied from -0.09 to -26.29‰. The maximum amplitudes of δ¹⁸O were registered in March-April and October. The pronounced interrelation was revealed between the oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation and surface air temperature (the correlation coefficient is 0.85). The computation of back trajectories of air masses and the analysis of weather charts demonstrated that the most isotopically light precipitation is typical of relatively cold air masses slowly moving over the continent during the last five days before precipitation. In this case, the ongoing condensation leads to the progressive isotopic depletion of precipitation (more and more isotope-depleted precipitation is registered). On the contrary, fast air transport from the middle and even from high latitudes of the Atlantic Ocean leads to the relatively constant of δ¹⁸O values of precipitation.     

WRF ARW and CHIMERE models for numerical forecasting of surface ozone concentration

Results of joint calculations with meteorological WRF ARW model and chemistry transport CHIMERE model are considered as a basis of the modern system of the air quality assessment and forecasting. The system was designed in the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and Institute of Applied Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Detailed prognostic information about the atmosphere state provided by the WRF ARW was used in the CHIMERE model for describing the air mass transport processes, chemical transformation, and pollution deposition. Results of retrieval and forecast of surface ozone concentration as one of main air quality indicators are under consideration. Calculations of ozone concentrations for different configurations of a prognostic system differ in resolution of model grid and in the way the boundary conditions are prescribed.     

Assessment of possible mechanisms of decreasing <Superscript>137</Superscript>Cs concentrations in river waters affected by the Chernobyl NPP accident

The analysis of possible mechanisms of ¹³⁷Cs concentration changes in surface waters was performed in the process of preparation of reliable long-range forecasts of radioactive river contamination after the Chernobyl accident. The following mechanisms were considered: (1) radioactive decay; (2) advective transport with river waters; (3) irreversible sorption; (4) vertical migration deep into bottom sediments due to diffusion; (5) burial in clean bottom sediments. The data published on ¹³⁷Cs monitoring at Dobrush, on the Iput’ River in Belarus were used in the analysis. It is shown that the best agreement with the experimental results is achieved when the second, third, and fifth mechanisms are used in calculations. However, a dominating mechanism still cannot be chosen at the present stage of our study. Most probably, all of these mechanisms act simultaneously.     

Preliminary results of modeling studies on washout of stable and radioactive analogs of <Superscript>90</Superscript>Sr and <Superscript>137</Superscript>Cs from snow-covered areas

Experimental field and laboratory studies on washout of radionuclides from the snow cover during snow melting were carried out in the winter of 2005/06. In the field studies, a specially equipped runoff site was used. In the laboratory conditions, the experiments were conducted using prepared soil monoliths. In the winter of 2006, 25 g/m² of water-free cesium chloride (CsCl) and 25 g/m³ of strontium chloride (SrCl₂) were put onto the snow cover surface of the runoff site. The snow surface of the soil monolith was coated with a ¹³⁷Cs-bearing solution, then with SrCl₂. Under experimental conditions, practically no surface runoff from the runoff site was recorded. The experiments with the soil monoliths demonstrated that the coefficient of the liquid washout of ¹³⁷Cs normalized to the runoff layer was within 0.9 × 10^?6–1.2 × 10^?4 mm^?1, and that of ⁹⁰Sr normalized to the runoff layer was within 2 × 10^?–1.6 × 10^?4 mm^?1.     

Verification of the vertical motion generation mechanisms in global models and their initial fields in connection with precipitation numerical forecasting

Verification of dynamic mechanisms of vertical motion forcing of four global atmosphere’s models is performed. A new approach to the verification problem is proposed, which includes: (1) choice of a set of physically substantial criteria of the forecasting efficiency (diagnostic characteristics) of the studied mechanisms, (2) computation of these diagnostic characteristics both from the model output data and from objective analysis used in the models, (3) comparison of the computed values in the forecasting fields, reanalysis data at the forecast time and reanalysis fields obtained from different models, (4) estimation of differences between the compared diagnostics not only on the average over the computation domain, but also over the intervals of their values in the whole range. The proposed approach is applied to reveal reasons of errors in precipitation forecasting in two Russian models (the spectral model of T85L31 of Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation and semi-Lagrangian model developed in the Russian Academy of Sciences Institute for Numerical Mathematics in cooperation with Hydrometcenter of Russia, in comparison with the models of the U.K. Met Office (UKMO) and U.S. National Center for Environment Prediction (NCEP).     

基于FY-3/IRAS利用非线性模式反演OLR

FY-3系列卫星星载IRAS仪器设有26个通道,其中20个通道用于探测地球大气在红外波段的热辐射,通道辐射率代表了地球大气系统在大气顶的向外辐射光谱信息,与总波段的射出长波辐射（OLR）通量相关性高。该文基于逐线辐射传输模式计算软件LBLRTM对全球2521条大气廓线的大气顶射出辐射率模拟数据,计算了每条廓线的OLR和FY-3B/IRAS,FY-3C/IRAS通道辐射率,用统计回归方法建立了利用IRAS的多通道辐射率计算OLR的非线性理论回归模式;应用模式和FY-3B/IRAS,FY-3C/IRAS的L1级数据,处理得到2016年4月1-30日的全球日平均、月平均OLR格点产品。与Aqua/CERES,Terra/CERES仪器宽波段观测OLR产品对比表明:对于水平分辨率为1°×1°的全球月平均OLR格点产品,均方根误差为2.22 W·m-2,相关系数为0.9982 W·m-2,平均偏差为-0.2 W·m-2,表明FY-3/IRAS仪器定标及反演模式均达到较高水平。文中还回顾了历史上不同气象卫星的多种OLR反演算法模式,并对不同模式精度进行了比较。     

Connection between ozone concentration and atmosphere circulation at peak Moussala

Connection between ozone concentration and atmosphere circulation is investigated based on measurements at BEO station, peak Moussala (2,925 m a.s.l.), for the period 09 August 2006 to 29 January 2008. Ozone concentration data are collected with UV-analyzer “Environnement O₃ 42” and meteo data with weather station “Vaisala”. There are measurements of ⁷Be. Data from NOAA HYSPLIT model for particle trajectories are also used. Eight wind directions and three ranges of wind velocities are employed in the analysis. A comparison of ozone concentrations in upward and downward air transport according to HYSPLIT model is made. The number of cases with ozone concentration above 63 ppb has been counted. Mann–Whitney nonparametric test is employed as a basic statistical method. Correlation between atmosphere pressure and tropospheric ozone content is made. The same is done for ⁷Be and ozone. The main conclusion is that there is not any local or regional pollution effect detectable at peak Moussala, but most of the ozone measured is due to emissions of hydrocarbons and NO _x over a larger region. There could be some regional sources of ozone building substances in southwest direction from peak Moussala. Air transported from the north quarter has higher ozone concentrations compared to the south quarter. In vertical direction, upward transport of air masses shows higher values of ozone concentration. Higher wind velocity is associated with low ozone concentrations at peak Moussala. The annual course of ozone concentration has summer maximum and winter minimum. There is right connection between air pressure and ozone concentration. The same is valid for the correlation between ⁷Be and ozone. Diurnal ozone course shows daytime maximum in winter and nighttime maximum in summer.     

Laboratory measurements of the <Superscript>12</Superscript>C/<Superscript>13</Superscript>C kinetic isotope effects in the gas-phase reactions of unsaturated hydrocarbons with Cl atoms at 298 ± 3 K

The carbon kinetic isotope effects (KIEs) in the reactions of several unsaturated hydrocarbons with chlorine atoms were measured at room temperature and ambient pressure using gas chromatography combustion isotope ratio mass spectrometry (GCC-IRMS). All measured KIEs, defined as the ratio of the rate constants for the unlabeled and labeled hydrocarbon reaction k ₁₂/k ₁₃, are greater than unity or normal KIEs. The KIEs, reported in per mil according to ^Cl ɛ = (k ₁₂/k ₁₃−1) × 1000‰ with the number of experimental determinations in parenthesis, are as follows: ethene, 5.65 ± 0.34 (1); propene, 5.56 ± 0.18 (2); 1-butene, 5.93 ± 1.16 (1); 1-pentene, 4.86 ± 0.63 (1); cyclopentene, 3.75 ± 0.14 (1); toluene, 2.89 ± 0.31 (2); ethylbenzene, 2.17 ± 0.17 (2); o-xylene, 1.85 ± 0.54 (2). To our knowledge, these are the first reported KIE measurements for reactions of unsaturated NMHC with Cl atoms. Relative rate constants were determined concurrently to the KIE measurements. For the reactions of cyclopentene and ethylbenzene with Cl atoms, no rate constant has been reported in refereed literature. Our measured rate constants are: cyclopentene (7.32 ± 0.88) relative to propene (2.68 ± 0.32); ethylbenzene (1.15 ± 0.04) relative to o-xylene (1.35 ± 0.21), all × 10⁻¹⁰ cm³ molecule⁻¹ s⁻¹. The KIEs in reactions of aromatic hydrocarbons with Cl atoms are similar to previously reported KIEs in Cl-reactions of alkanes with the same numbers of carbon atoms. Unlike the KIEs for previously studied gas-phase hydrocarbon reactions, the KIEs for alkene–Cl reactions do not exhibit a simple inverse dependence on carbon number. This can be explained by competing contributions of normal and inverse isotope effects of individual steps in the reaction mechanism. Implications for the symmetries of the transition state structures in these reactions and the potential relevance of Cl-atom reactions on stable carbon isotope ratios of atmospheric NMHC are discussed.     

Actinometric System Aboard the Yak-42D “Roshydromet” Research Aircraft

The actinometric system installed aboard the Yak-42D "Roshydromet" research aircraft is presented. It is designed to study radiation processes in the troposphere. The system is based on standard Kipp&Zonen actinometric instruments for measuring solar, thermal, and ultraviolet radiation fluxes as well as on specially developed radiation models with high-precision methods for solving radiative transfer equations (Monte Carlo, k-distribution, and line-by-line calculations). The combination of actinometric measurements and detailed simulation of radiative transfer in the atmosphere allows examining the radiation balance components throughout the troposphere using in situ measurements at the aircraft location. Some results of studying radiation fluxes obtained during the flights over the Arctic region of the Russian Federation are presented. The data of measurements carried out using the presented system are useful for validating radiation codes utilized in general atmospheric circulation models and for processing satellite remote sensing data.     

Sources,transport, and sinks of SO<Subscript>2</Subscript> over the equatorial Pacific during the Pacific Atmospheric Sulfur Experiment

The Pacific Atmospheric Sulfur Experiment (PASE) is the first sulfur-budget field experiment to feature simultaneous flux measurements of DMS marine emissions and SO₂ deposition to the ocean surface. We make use of these data to constrain a 1-D chemical transport model to study the production and loss pathways for DMS and SO₂ over the equatorial Pacific. Model results suggest that OH is the main sink for DMS in the boundary layer (BL), and the average DMS-to-SO₂ conversion efficiency is ~73%. In an exploratory run involving the addition of 1 pptv of BrO as a second oxidant, a 14% increase in the DMS flux is needed beyond that based on OH oxidation alone. This BrO addition also reduces the DMS-to-SO₂ conversion efficiency from 73% to 60%. The possibility of non-DMS sources of marine sulfur influencing the estimated conversion efficiency was explored and found to be unconvincing. For BL conditions, SO₂ losses consist of 48% dry deposition, while transport loss to the BuL and aerosol scavenging each account for another 19%. The conversion of SO₂ to H₂SO₄ consumes the final 14%. In the BuL, cloud scavenging removes 85% of the SO₂, thus resulting in a decreasing vertical profile for SO₂. The average SO₂ dry deposition velocity from direct measurements (i.e., 0.36 cm sec⁻¹) is approximately 50% of what is calculated from the 1-D model and the global GEOS-Chem model. This suggests that the current generation of global models may be significantly overestimating SO₂ deposition rates over some tropical marine areas. Although the specific mechanism cannot be determined, speculation here is that the dry deposition anomalous results may point to the presence of a micro-surface chemical phenomenon involving partial saturation with either S(IV) and/or S(VI) DMS oxidation products. This could also appear as a pH drop in the ocean’s surface microfilm layer in this region. Finally, we propose that the enhanced SO₂ level observed in the lower free troposphere versus that in the upper BuL during PASE is most likely the result of transported DMS/SO₂-rich free-tropospheric air parcels from the east of the PASE sampling area, rather than an inadequate representation in the model of local convection.     

Discrepancies in Simulated Ocean Net Surface Heat Fluxes over the North Atlantic

The change in ocean net surface heat flux plays an important role in the climate system. It is closely related to the ocean heat content change and ocean heat transport, particularly over the North Atlantic, where the ocean loses heat to the atmosphere, affecting the AMOC(Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) variability and hence the global climate.However, the difference between simulated surface heat fluxes is still large due to poorly represented dynamical processes involving multisca...     

<Superscript>137</Superscript>Cs washout from the soil in winter and spring

Experimental investigations under field and laboratory conditions of ¹³⁷Cs washout from the periodically frozen and thawed soils were carried out. The experiments demonstrated that the amount of cesium washed out from the soil after freezing was much larger than from the non-frozen soils and by its intensity it corresponds to the washout under the influence of intensifiers. This fact allows recommending cheap and technologically simple measures for the in-snow runoff control to rehabilitate the contaminated lands.     

UV attenuation in the cloudy atmosphere

Ultraviolet (UV) energy absorption plays a very important role in the Earth–atmosphere system. Based on observational data for Beijing, we suggest that some atmospheric constituents utilize or transfer UV energy in chemical and photochemical (C&P) reactions, in addition to those which absorb UV energy directly. These constituents are primarily volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emitted from both vegetative and anthropogenic sources. The total UV energy loss in the cloudy atmosphere for Beijing in 1990 was 78.9 Wm⁻². This attenuation was caused by ozone (48.3 Wm⁻²), other compounds in the atmosphere (26.6 Wm⁻²) and a scattering factor (4.0 Wm⁻²). Our results for a cloudy atmosphere in the Beijing area show that the absorption due to these other compounds occurs largely through the mediation of water vapor. This fraction of energy loss has not been fully accounted for in previous models. Observations and previous models results suggest that 1) a cloudy atmosphere absorbs 25∼30 Wm⁻² more solar shortwave radiation than models predict; and 2) aerosols can significantly decrease the downward mean UV-visible radiation and the absorbed solar radiation at the surface by up to 28 and 23 Wm⁻², respectively. Thus, quantitative study of UV and visible absorption by atmospheric constituents involved in homogeneous and heterogeneous C&P reactions is important for atmospheric models.     

Verification of the multi-chamber model of radioactivity migration in reservoirs

A multi-chamber model of radioactivity migration in reservoirs was developed. It describes transport of radioactive substances in water and in bed sediments taking into account sorbtion of radionuclides on suspended particles. The model provides higher resolution than simplified chamber models do. At the same time, unlike complex two- or three-dimensional dynamic models, it does not require hard-to-obtain data such as detailed data on bathymetry, currents and winds. The model was included into the Sybilla program code that was developed in the framework of the Rosatom project called PRORYV. The model was verified against the observed data on the contamination of the Kiev Reservoir with ¹³⁷Cs in 1986.     

Climate entropy budget of the HadCM3 atmosphere–ocean general circulation model and of FAMOUS, its low-resolution version

The entropy budget is calculated of the coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model HadCM3. Estimates of the different entropy sources and sinks of the climate system are obtained directly from the diabatic heating terms, and an approximate estimate of the planetary entropy production is also provided. The rate of material entropy production of the climate system is found to be ～50 mW m^?2 K^?1, a value intermediate in the range 30–70 mW m^?2 K^?1 previously reported from different models. The largest part of this is due to sensible and latent heat transport (～38 mW m^?2 K^?1). Another 13 mW m^?2 K^?1 is due to dissipation of kinetic energy in the atmosphere by friction and Reynolds stresses. Numerical entropy production in the atmosphere dynamical core is found to be about 0.7 mW m^?2 K^?1. The material entropy production within the ocean due to turbulent mixing is ～1 mW m^?2 K^?1, a very small contribution to the material entropy production of the climate system. The rate of change of entropy of the model climate system is about 1 mW m^?2 K^?1 or less, which is comparable with the typical size of the fluctuations of the entropy sources due to interannual variability, and a more accurate closure of the budget than achieved by previous analyses. Results are similar for FAMOUS, which has a lower spatial resolution but similar formulation to HadCM3, while more substantial differences are found with respect to other models, suggesting that the formulation of the model has an important influence on the climate entropy budget. Since this is the first diagnosis of the entropy budget in a climate model of the type and complexity used for projection of twenty-first century climate change, it would be valuable if similar analyses were carried out for other such models.     

Pre-season prediction of regional rainfed wheat yield in Northern Greece with CERES-Wheat

The present study aims at forecasting hard wheat (Triticum turgidum L. var. durum) yield in northern Greece, a season prior to harvest. It is based on (a) crop simulated, with CERES-Wheat indicators at four planting dates and (b) reported crop yields at two regional levels (three NUTS2 [Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Statistics] and 16 NUTS3 regions), for the years 1979–2006. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to explore major patterns of joint variability in 20 crop simulated agroclimatic indicators of the growing season before harvest. Stepwise regression and hindcast were employed for the selection of the modes identified by PCA as predictors in multivariate linear regression models used for forecasting yield a season ahead of harvest. Forecasting skill varied to a large extent by spatial scale and planting date. When the simulation results aggregated to the larger spatial level (NUTS2), the yield forecasting skill, in terms of R², was rated as high (ranging from 0.48 to 0.73) in three out of four planting dates for Central Macedonia and in one planting (R ²?=?0.57) for Thrace. Harvest index, nitrogen leaching and related soil water crop simulated output of the previous season, were the most important predictors. No forecasting skill was found in the third NUTS2 region. The performance of the regression models substantially deteriorated at the higher resolution spatial level (NUTS3). In four regions only (including the one where CERES-Wheat was calibrated) yield forecasting skill was moderate (R ²?>?0.25). The results demonstrate the potential of this approach for regional crop yield forecasting before the beginning of the cropping season. However, crop model calibration is required before its application.     

Global <Superscript>90</Superscript>Sr runoff from Eastern Fennoscandia catchments and water purification estimates

⁹⁰Sr runoff amounted to 0.22–0.67% of its budget in the catchment; the value is lower for high-latitude rivers running in the zone of frozen and seasonally frozen grounds. The ecological half-period of a decrease in the ⁹⁰Sr concentration in the river water of Eastern Fennoscandia amounted to 5.9–11.5 years in 1979–1985. The lake waters (Lake Ladoga and Lake Päijänne) were renewed approximately 4–5 times faster than the 90Sr content decreased in these lakes.