Modeling fields of river runoff (a case study for the Lena River basin)

The potential of the model approach to the construction of mean annual fields (maps) of specific runoff for large territories from meteorological data is demonstrated for the Lena River basin. The ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics), the physically based distributed model of river runoff formation is used to simulate hydrological parameters. Methodological aspects of calibration of the spatial fields of model parameters are discussed. The results of runoff hydrograph calculations are compared with the data of hydrometric observations at 12 gaging stations for the period of 1966-2009. The field of mean annual specific runoff in the Lena River batin computed with the ECOMAG model is compared with the map of specific runoff constructed from the data on water discharge in the river network. The comparative analysis of consistency between the fields is provided, and the possible sources of errors are considered.     

Balance of water,heat, and solutes in the Dnieper-Bug estuary

The balance of water, heat, and solutes in the Dnieper-Bug estuary is estimated using the data of long-term observations (from 1965 to 2011) for solving the practical problems associated with the rational use of water resources in this area.     

A subtropical water intrusion spring-event in the shelf-slope of the south-western Bay of Biscay after strong wind-forcing pulses

Two consecutive multidisciplinary surveys, covering the north and north-western part of the Iberian shelf and slope during spring 2000, showed a dramatic change in the oceanographic conditions as a result of a southern water intrusion that replaced shelf and slope waters down to 300 m depth. The intrusion covered an alongshore distance of ∼400 km from the north of Cape Finisterre to the centre of the Cantabrian Sea, and was developed in less than a month between the two occupations of the same area. The analysis of surface currents from several buoys moored over the slope allow us to associate the emerging oceanographic configuration after the event with a strong and well-defined slope current, although during winter 1999-2000 the entrance of the Iberian Poleward Current (IPC) in the Bay of Biscay was very weak. The rapid development of the intrusion is discussed in relation with the unusual strong wind forcing pulse that occurred between the cruises. Our results highlight the importance of variability scales below seasonal (event-scale) in the Iberian margin.     

Climate change impact on water and salt balances: an assessment of the impact of climate change on catchment salt and water balances in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia

Climate change has potentially significant implications for hydrology and the quantity and quality of water resources. This study investigated the impacts of climate change and revegetation on water and salt balance, and stream salt concentration for catchments within the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. The Biophysical Capacity to Change model was used with climate change scenarios obtained using the CSIRO DARLAM 125 (125 km resolution) and Cubic Conformal (50 km resolution) regional climate models. These models predicted up to 25% reduction in mean annual rainfall and a similar magnitude of increase in potential evapotranspiration by 2070. Relatively modest changes in rainfall and temperature can lead to significant reductions in mean annual runoff and salt yield and increases in stream salt concentrations within the Basin. The modelled reductions in mean annual runoff were up to 45% in the wetter/cooler southern catchments and up to 64% in the drier/hotter western and northern catchments. The maximum reductions in salt yield were estimated to be up to 34% in the southern catchments and up to 49% in the northern and western catchments. These changes are associated with average catchment rainfall decreases of 13 to 21%. The results suggest that percentage changes in rainfall will be amplified in runoff. This study demonstrates that climate change poses significant challenges to natural resource management in Australia.     

On the relative role of sea salt cloud condensation nuclei (CCN)

Contrasts between cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) spectral volatility (thermal fractionation) measurements in two aircraft field projects provide insight into the relative contribution of sea salt. During the much more cloudy Rain in Cumulus over the Ocean (RICO) project there was a high correlation coefficient (R) between refractory (non-volatile) CCN concentrations (N_CCN) and horizontal wind speed (U), especially for low supersaturation (S) N_CCN, whereas this R was significantly lower in the nearly cloud free Pacific Aerosol Sulfur Experiment (PASE) project. Volatile N_CCN at all S were uncorrelated with U. Ambient particle concentrations over a broad range of large sizes displayed consistently high R with U in both projects that was similar to the R of refractory N_CCN with U in RICO. The size range of this high R extended down to 0.2 μm in RICO but only down to 9 μm in PASE. In both projects particle concentrations smaller than these respective sizes were highly correlated with N_CCN, at all S in PASE, but mainly with N_CCN at high S in RICO. In each project N_CCN at all S was uncorrelated with all ambient particle concentrations larger than these same respective sizes. N_CCN at all S was also uncorrelated with U in both projects. The contrast in cloudiness between the two projects was responsible for many of the differences noted between the two projects. The results indicate that the effects of clouds on N_CCN play a major role in the relative influence of sea salt on N_CCN and ultimately on climate. Sea salt is a minor component of maritime CCN except at high wind speeds especially at low S.     

Role of exchange flow in salt water balance of Urmia Lake

In this paper we examine how exchange flow in Urmia Lake plays a crucial role in dynamics of the lake. Urmia Lake, a very large hyper-saline lake of high ecological significance, is located in northwest of Iran with a 15-km causeway dividing it into north and south lakes. A 1250-m opening in the causeway near the east coast links the two lakes. The differences in mean water levels and densities of the two lakes increase in spring due to large freshwater inflows into the south lake. High evaporation dominates the lake in summer. By incorporating the results of a two-layer hydraulics theory into a mixing model of the lake, we show that the exchange flow through the opening diminishes the water level and salinity differences of the two lakes and hence helps restoration of the pre-construction state of the lake by the end of fall. The model results are confirmed by the field data. The north–south and south–north flows through the opening are equal in most of the year, except in spring when the south–north flow is greater due to the head difference of the two lakes.     

松花江、嫩江流域水资源形势分析

黑龙江省位于我国东北边疆地区,全省总面积 45.5万 km^2,属寒温带大陆季风区,年平均降水量 523.8mm,全省地表水资源量 655.83亿 m^3.人均占有水量 2074m^3,低于全国人均 2460m^3,居全国第 13位.亩均占有量 564m^3,低于全国亩均 1980m^3,居全国第 19位,可见水资源并不丰富.随着人口的增长,工农业不断发展,需水量逐年增加. 20世纪 80年代以来黑龙江气候变暖明显,蒸发量加大,连续干旱导致黑龙江水资源匮乏,松花江自 1998年以来连续 4、 5年枯水位,降到建国以来水位最低值,生活用水困难,航运中断,供需之间矛盾突出,水资源形势不容乐观.今后随着经济发展,工农业用水、河道内外用水与水资源之间矛盾会越来越突出.要求依法管好水、用好水,制定长运供需计划,提出水资源开发利用具体对策,以便供各级政府发展经济,规划蓝图作重要参考.文中水资源资料由文献和黑龙江省水文水资源勘测局提供.     

气候变化对滦河流域水资源影响的水文模式模拟(Ⅰ)降水径流模式系统（PRMS）介绍及其在滦河流域的移植

简单介绍了引进美国地质勘查中心发展的降水径流模式系统（PRMS）。认为PRMS模式具有多种模拟功能，包含的物理过程也较全面，是当前世界上较好的水文学模式。将PRMS模式系统移植到滦河流域，并对其模拟能力进行了初步检验。结果表明，模式系统在我国滦河流域的移植比较成功，而且能够较真实地再现滦河流域河川径流量及水资源其它分量的年际及季节变化，也可以用于研究气候变化对滦河流域水资源的影响。     

黑河流域植被覆盖度计算及其影响的中尺度模拟

运用基于遥感的中国西北土地覆盖动态监测系统(NOAA AVHRR Processing Chain,NOAA-Chain)预处理系统对改进的甚高分辨率扫描辐射仪(AVHRR)影像资料进行处理得到的归一化植被指数(NDVI),基于像元二分原理得到2002年黑河流域植被覆盖度分布,将其与Gutman 1998年所作全球植被覆盖度数据在黑河流域范围进行了对比分析,发现2002年黑河流域中上游植被整体呈退化趋势,主要绿洲区植被覆盖度增大。分别将这两套植被覆盖度数据引入中尺度大气模式MM5中进行黑河流域中上游气候模拟。通过与气温观测值的比较,发现用黑河流域植被覆盖度数据模拟的气温偏差小于用全球植被覆盖度的模拟结果;植被分布与潜热通量分布的空间相关性最好;植被覆盖度变化对局地温度场变化影响很大。     

Scientific and methodological principles of modern state monitoring of water objects (with a special reference to the Kuban River basin)

Scientific and methodological principles of organization and implementation of modern state monitoring of water objects, in accordance with a new Water Code of the Russian Federation, are considered with a special reference to the Kuban River basin. An integrated analysis of the modern state and efficiency of the system of observations of water objects in the Kuban River basin is performed. A concept is suggested to modify the available observational system. It includes recommendations to take into account the state of the river drainage system as an object of monitoring, organization of regime and operational monitoring, organization of a unique integrated database, implementation of a complex of scientific and methodological activities, and organizational and technical actions that would provide the maximum correspondence with the tasks and requirements of the modern state monitoring of water objects. The developments for the Kuban River can be used for other river basins and regions with intensive economic activity.     

In situ measurements of optical properties at Tinfou (Morocco) during the Saharan Mineral Dust Experiment SAMUM 2006

In situ measurements of optical and physical properties of mineral dust were performed at the outskirts of the Saharan Desert in the framework of the Saharan Mineral Dust Experiment part 1 (SAMUM-1). Goals of the field study were to achieve information on the extent and composition of the dust particle size distribution and the optical properties of dust at the ground. For the particle number size distribution, measured with a DMPS/APS, a size dependent dynamic shape factor was considered. The mean refractive index of the particles in this field study is  1.53–4.1 × 10⁻³ i   at 537 nm wavelength and  1.53–3.1 × 10⁻³ i   at 637 nm wavelength derived from measurements of scattering and absorption coefficients, as well as the particle size distribution. Whereas the real part of the refractive index is rather constant, the imaginary part varies depending on the mineral dust concentrations. For high dust concentration the single scattering albedo is primarily influenced by iron oxide and is  0.96 ± 0.02  and  0.98 ± 0.01  at 537 nm and 637 nm wavelength, respectively. During low dust concentration the single scattering albedo is more influenced by a soot-type absorber and is  0.89 ± 0.02  and  0.93 ± 0.01  for the same wavelengths.     

Spatial and temporal analysis of the drought vulnerability and risks over eight decades in a semi-arid region (Tensift basin: Morocco)

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - The multiple downscaled scenario products allow us to assess the uncertainty of the variations of precipitation and temperature in the current and future...     

GM(1, 1)模型的建模条件

GM(1,1)模型是灰色系统理论的核心预测模型,对GM(1,1)模型的建模条件进行研究是提高模拟精度的基础.采用理论证明和数值算例相结合的方法对GM(1,1)模型的建模条件进行研究,拓展了经典灰色预测模型的级比判定条件.结果表明:当原始序列的累加序列值都相等时,发展系数不存在;提高原始序列光滑度不是提高模拟精度的充分条件.     

辽河三角洲主要植被类型土壤水盐含量研究

基于不同植被类型,探讨辽河三角洲土壤的水盐状况,研究土壤全盐与土壤含水量及土壤pH值之间的关系。结果表明：辽河三角洲植被类型不同,土壤盐分、土壤含水量及土壤pH值明显不同。不同土层裸滩土壤全盐量均较高,小叶杨最低。翅碱蓬、紫花苜蓿、芦苇和柽柳作为盐生植被,对土壤含盐量影响较大。不同土层小叶杨土壤含水量均较低。裸滩、翅碱蓬及芦苇受潮汐影响较大,土壤含水量差异较大。调查区土壤pH值偏碱性,变化范围为7.30—8.97。土壤全盐、土壤含水量及土壤pH值之间总体呈显著相关,可见土壤含水量和pH值是显著影响土壤全盐量的重要因素。     

The transport of water,heat and salt through the strait of Belle Isle

Abstract

We present an analysis of current‐meter, sea‐level and hydrographic data collected in the Strait of Belle Isle and the northeastern Gulf of St Lawrence. From an array of moorings in the Strait from July to October 1980, we calculate a net transport into the Gulf of 0.13 × 10⁶ m³ s^?1 and show that the mean and eddy fluxes of heat through the Strait represented a net loss of heat to the northeastern Gulf. The estimated rate of loss of heat is less than the long‐term mean computed by Bugden (1981) but becomes comparable if adjusted for interannual changes of transport and water temperature. Moreover, the 1980 data permit the permanent tide‐gauge stations in the Strait at West Ste Modeste and Savage Cove to be levelled relative to one another, thus allowing surface currents to be calculated from sea‐level alone. Hence the long‐term wintertime transport into the Gulf can be calculated after fractional effects on the vertical structure of the flow are considered. During an average winter it appears that advection through the Strait can account for about 35% of the Gulf Intermediate Layer. A multiple regression involving average Intermediate Layer temperatures over 9 years suggests that winter air temperature in the Gulf, representative of atmospheric cooling, and sea‐level difference across the Strait, representative of advection, are equally important variables and together account for 50% of the Layer's temperature variability. Analysis of current‐meter, sea‐level and hydrographic data collected in 1975 supports earlier hypotheses that the strongest inflow of water with ? < 0° C and salinity between 32 and 3 3 should occur in winter. It appears that during the 1975 field program the inflow was about 0.6 × 10⁶ m³ s^?1, which is about twice the long‐term average for January to May.     

澜沧江流域1951-2008年气候变化和2010-2099年不同情景下模式预估结果分析

利用澜沧江流域1951-2008年的降水和气温观测资料以及多模式集成的21世纪（2010-2099年）不同情景下（SRES A1B、SRES A2和SRES B1）气候变化模拟试验的预估结果,分析了该流域过去58年降水和气温的变化,并预估了未来90年的气候变化趋势。结果表明,在全球增暖的大背景下,过去58年澜沧江流域的年降水量下降了46.4 mm,气温有所上升,升温率达到了0.15℃/10a。在未来的90年,无论在哪种排放情景下,降水都表现为明显的上升趋势,而且相对于过去58年的结果,3种不同情景下降水的年代际变率都有所增加,其中A2情景值最大,B1情景值最小。年平均气温无论是在过去的58年还是在未来的90年都以明显的上升趋势为主,3种情景下气温的升温率远远超过过去58的结果。     

Statistical Modeling and Trend Detection of Extreme Sea Level Records in the Pearl River Estuary

Sea level rise has become an important issue in global climate change studies. This study investigates trends in sea level records, particularly extreme records, in the Pearl River Estuary, using measurements from two tide gauge stations in Macau and Hong Kong. Extremes in the original sea level records(daily higher high water heights) and in tidal residuals with and without the 18.6-year nodal modulation are investigated separately. Thresholds for defining extreme sea levels are calibrated based on extreme value theory. Extreme events are then modeled by peaks-over-threshold models. The model applied to extremes in original sea level records does not include modeling of their durations, while a geometric distribution is added to model the duration of extremes in tidal residuals. Realistic modeling results are recommended in all stationary models. Parametric trends of extreme sea level records are then introduced to nonstationary models through a generalized linear model framework. The result shows that, in recent decades, since the 1960 s, no significant trends can be found in any type of extreme at any station, which may be related to a reduction in the influence of tropical cyclones in the region. For the longer-term record since the 1920 s at Macau, a regime shift of tidal amplitudes around the 1970 s may partially explain the diverse trend of extremes in original sea level records and tidal residuals.     

Dew water collector for potable water in Ajaccio (Corsica Island, France)

We report on the development of an inexpensive radiative condenser for collecting atmospheric vapor. Based on the experience gained using a small working model in Grenoble (France), a prototype of 10×3 m² was established in Ajaccio (Corsica, France). The condensing surface is a rectangular foil made of TiO₂ and BaSO₄ microspheres embedded in polyethylene and has an angle of 30° with respect to horizontal. The hollow part of the device, thermally isolated, faces the direction of the dominant nocturnal wind. Dew measurements were correlated with meteorological data and compared to dew condensed on a horizontal polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA, Plexiglas) reference plate. The plate served as a reference standard unit and was located nearby. Between July 22, 2000 and November 11, 2001 (478 days), there were 145 dew days for the reference plate (30%), but 214 dew days for the condenser (45%). This yield corresponds to 767 l (3.6 l, on average, per dew day). The maximum yield in the period was 11.4 l/day. Dew mass can be fitted to a simple model that predicts dew production from simple meteorological data (temperature, humidity, wind velocity, cloud cover). Chemical analyses of the water collected from the plate were performed from October 16, 1999 to July 16, 2000 and from the condenser, from July 17, 2000 to March 17, 2001. The following parameters were investigated: suspended solids, pH, concentration of SO₄²⁻, Cl⁻, K⁺, Ca²⁺ ions. Only Cl⁻ and SO₄²⁻ ions were sometimes found significant. Wind direction analyses revealed that Cl⁻ is due to the sea spray and SO₄²⁻ to the combustion of fuel by an electrical plant located in the Ajaccio Gulf. Except for a weak acidity (average pH≈6) and high concentration of suspended solids, dew water fits the requirements for potable water in France with reference to the above ions.     

Anthropogenic transformation of the bottom sediments composition in the Pakhra River Basin (the Moscow Region)

Bottom sediments in rivers and water bodies represent an important accumulation component of water systems. The technogenic alluvial sediments are formed in stream channels under the ever-increasing technogenic impact; they are characterized by a specific material and geochemical composition.