Atmospheric Blockings in Western Siberia. Part 2. Long-term Variations in Blocking Frequency and Their Relation with Climatic Variability over Asia

This paper studies the long-term variability of frequency of atmospheric blockings over Western Siberia in 1948–2015 based on the data of three reanalysis projects. We revealed a decreasing blocking frequency for eight of twelve months. However, since the estimated trends of blocking frequency are small comparing to the significant amplitude of interannual variations, we proposed to divide the entire studied period into several quasi-decadal intervals that differ both in the amplitude of interannual fluctuations of blocking frequency and in trends. The effect of Western Siberian blockings imposed on synoptic and climatic variability of meteorological parameters in Asia was studied. The study demonstrated that in summer teleconnection patterns in temperature and precipitation fields are of the close sign-alternating structure; this indirectly indicates that in Western Siberia the blocking is a part of a large-scale wave mechanism. Like the Ural blockings, the blockings occurring over Western Siberia affect meteorological characteristics within the East Asian monsoon area. In winter time they contribute to lower surface temperature and decreased precipitation in Southeast Asia. In summer during blocking events over Western Siberia, precipitation increases in the East Asian monsoon area.     

Prediction of severe winds and rainfalls in Western Siberia using plane rotations

A statistical model for prediction of hazardous phenomena such as severe winds and heavy rainfalls is described. The pattern recognition method based on direct minimization of the errors of recognition is used as the main instrument for modeling and prediction. The construction of the hyperplanes based on error minimization is performed with simultaneous screening of the initial parameters using the same criterion. The algorithm elaborated takes into account different error prices for different kinds of errors and thus effectively distinguishes the “domain” in some multidimensional space of the situations determined as “dangerous.” The domain may be confined by several hyperplanes the number of which depends on the distribution of dangerous situations in multidimensional space. The model comprises the accommodation that takes into account the development of the phenomenon in time and space. The construction was carried out for prediction of winds and rainfall 24 and 36 h in advance for four administrative districts of Western Siberia.     

Statistics of Scalar Fields in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Based on Large-eddy Simulations. Part 1: Free Convection

Convection in a quasi-steady, cloud-free, shear-free atmospheric boundary layer is investigated based on a large-eddy simulation model. The performed tests indicate that the characteristic (peak) values of statistical moments at the top of the mixed layer are proportional to the interfacial scales (from gradients of scalars in the interfacial layer). Based on this finding a parameterization is proposed for profiles of scalar variances. The parameterization employs two, semi-empirical similarity functions F_m(z/z_i) andF_i(z/z_i), multiplied by a combination of the mixed-layer scales and the interfacial scales.     

A comparison of reanalyses in the tropical stratosphere. Part 1: thermal structure and the annual cycle

 An intercomparison of the thermal structure and the annual cycle in the tropical lower stratosphere of two reanalysis datasets is presented. These are from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF Re-Analysis: ERA). Generally, the ERA data are coldest and in better agreement with radiosonde observations; this is particularly apparent at 100 hPa where there is also a strong geographic bias, the maximum differences (more than 4 K) occurring over the southern Pacific and the Indian Ocean, with much smaller (sometimes reversed) differences over land. The NCEP temperatures are biased towards satellite-derived values, while the ERA data resolve the low tropopause temperatures much better. The lower ERA temperatures have important implications for the cross-tropopause exchange of water vapor. The meridional-height structure of the annual cycles agree quite well, but the amplitude in the ERA data is about 50% stronger than in NCEP at 70 hPa (in better agreement with previous studies) and weaker at lower pressures. As in previous studies, an anticorrelation is found between the tropical and extratropical temperatures of the reanalyses. The mean meridional flow at the equator is northward all year at all stratospheric levels in the NCEP data, implying a mass transport from the Southern to the Northern Hemisphere; in the ERA data the expected annual cycle (flow from summer to winter) is reproduced with very small annual mean exchange. Received: 17 June 1997/Accepted: 17 December 1997     

华南低能见度天气特征及客观预报研究

利用2000—2016年华南219个县级气象观测站的地面、高空气象观测资料以及对应站点的再分析资料,统计发生低能见度天气的天气形势和特征,归纳低能见度天气的预报指标。将与能见度以及能见度变化相关的气象要素输入神经网络进行训练,利用EC集合预报数据集获得能见度集合预报结果,通过对其离散度的统计分析以及经验公式最终获得具有泛用性、可靠性的神经网络模型的参数集。通过输入EC确定场数据,获得华南219县级站长时效精细化能见度预报结果,2017年上半年的能见度预报试验显示,模型预报结果的误差与TS评分均优于CUACE模式能见度预报。     

Brewer,SAOZ and Ozonesonde Observations in Siberia

Abstract

Regular ground-based measurements of total ozone are available over the full Russian territory using M-124 filter ozonometers, Brewer spectrophotometers, and Système d'Analyse par Observation Zénithale (SAOZ) spectrometers in the Arctic region where these observations are essential for evaluating ozone loss in winter. Daily measurements are performed by three Brewer spectrophotometers; these are located in Kislovodsk (43.7°N, 42.7°E), Obninsk (55.1°N, 36.6°E), and Tomsk (56.5°N, 85.1°E). Two SAOZ spectrometers are deployed at the Arctic Circle in Salekhard (66.5°N, 66.7°E) and Zhigansk (66.8°N, 123.4°E). In addition, regular winter–spring ozonesonde soundings are carried out in Salekhard. Altogether, they have provided the unique measurements over the eastern Arctic required for characterizing ozone loss during each winter and will also monitor the anticipated ozone recovery following the reduction of chlorine and bromine ozone-depleting substances in the atmosphere.     

银川市大气颗粒物物理化学特征研究Ⅰ:大气颗粒物浓度特征

根据大量的大气环境监测资料,系统分析了银川市市区、郊区以及市中各功能区(居民区、商业区、文教区、工业区、交通区、娱乐区)大气颗粒物的TSP(TotalSuspendedParticles)、PM10(粒径小于等于10μm的粒子)和PM2.5(粒径小于等于2.5μm的粒子)质量浓度的季节分布、日变化以及随高度的分布特征。结果表明:银川市背景大气TSP平均值为0.126～0.248mg·m-3,低于国家三级污染标准;银川市区TSP日平均浓度的年平均值为0.47～0.78mg·m-3,超过国家二级标准0.57～1.6倍,超标率高达61.3%～92.5%,日均最大值超标7.9倍;春夏秋冬4季中,以冬春两季日平均浓度最高,其原因是燃煤取暖和沙尘暴多发。各功能区中商业区、交通区、居民区的TSP较高,这显然与人为活动、机动车辆排放密切相关,TSP日变化均呈现出与人为活动相一致的规律性;TSP的空间分布表明城市高于郊区,规模大、人口密度高、商业网点密集的城区TSP较高。各粒径粒子的质量浓度随高度递减,PM10占TSP的比例却随高度增加,说明PM10随高度增加。地面呼吸带高度上PM10和PM2.5均较高,可能与低空排放源有关。春季风沙期是大气污染最为严重的季节。     

华南前汛期雨涝强、弱年的确定及其环流特征对比

用区域性暴雨过程综合强度评估方法,在对1961—2010年华南前汛期逐场暴雨过程评估的基础上,通过定义华南区域雨涝强度指数(RWI),划分和确定了雨涝强、弱年,并对雨涝强、弱年的环流特征进行合成分析。结果显示:(1) RWI存在显著的年际变化和年代际变化特征。雨涝强度在1990s初以后呈现明显的增加趋势,雨涝强年明显增多。(2)雨涝强(弱)年,南亚高压偏南(北),副高位置偏西(东),欧亚中高纬500 hPa位势高度差值场自西向东呈现+ - +的波列分布,则有利(不利)于华南区域降水的发展和持续;(3)华南前汛期雨涝的强(弱)与大气低层来自华中—华南北部的偏北风输送加强(减弱)、高原东南侧的偏西风和经西太平洋—南海进入华南的西南风及水汽输送异常加强(减弱)有着密切的关系。而与来自孟加拉湾进入华南的偏南风及水汽输送强(弱)呈现反相关。(4)雨涝强(弱)年,冷空气活动频率较高(低),持续时间较长(短),强中心偏南(北)。且暖湿空气较早(晚)到达25 °N地区,并在30 °N以南地区维持时间较长(短),季风推进快(慢)。     

Water and Heat Transport in the Desert Soil and Atmospheric Boundary Layer in Western China

In order to understand the exchange and transferprocesses of water and energy in the desert soil andthe atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), we have developeda coupled model, in which a desert soil modelincluding water movement of both liquid and vapourphase, and an ABL model based on a non-local transilientturbulence closure scheme, are coupled together. Withthis model, the evolution of potential temperature andspecific humidity, the distribution of net radiationamong sensible, latent and soil heat fluxes, and thewater and heat flux profiles both in the soil and ABLhave been simulated. The HEIFE (HEIhe River Basin FieldExperiment) observational data are used to calibrate calculation of the water and heat flux both in thesoil and the ABL. The sensible and latent heatfluxes warm and moisten the bottom grid box (100m) of theABL. In this way the ABL model and the desert soil model are coupled together.The simulated results show that when the flux of watervapour in the soil is neglected, the evaporation rateand the flux profiles of specific humidity in the ABLshow great changes, hence the importance of watervapour movement in the desert soil for the calculationof specific humidity in the ABL. In the upper 5cm of thesoil, which is called an active layer, water andheat transport are more effective than in the substrate(soil below 5 cm).     

Impacts of Multi-Scale Solar Activity on Climate. Part I: Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and Climate Extremes

The impacts of solar activity on climate are explored in this two-part study.Based on the principles of atmospheric dynamics,Part I propose an amplifying mechanism of solar impacts on winter climate extremes through changing the atmospheric circulation patterns.This mechanism is supported by data analysis of the sunspot number up to the predicted Solar Cycle 24,the historical surface temperature data,and atmospheric variables of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis up to the February 2011 for the Northern Hemisphere winters.For low solar activity,the thermal contrast between the low-and high-latitudes is enhanced,so as the mid-latitude baroclinic ultra-long wave activity.The land-ocean thermal contrast is also enhanced,which amplifies the topographic waves.The enhanced mid-latitude waves in turn enhance the meridional heat transport from the low to high latitudes,making the atmospheric "heat engine" more efficient than normal.The jets shift southward and the polar vortex is weakened.The Northern Annular Mode(NAM) index tends to be negative.The mid-latitude surface exhibits large-scale convergence and updrafts,which favor extreme weather/climate events to occur.The thermally driven Siberian high is enhanced,which enhances the East Asian winter monsoon(EAWM).For high solar activity,the mid-latitude circulation patterns are less wavy with less meridional transport.The NAM tends to be positive,and the Siberian high and the EAWM tend to be weaker than normal.Thus the extreme weather/climate events for high solar activity occur in different regions with different severity from those for low solar activity.The solar influence on the midto high-latitude surface temperature and circulations can stand out after removing the influence from the El Nin o-Southern Oscillation.The atmospheric amplifying mechanism indicates that the solar impacts on climate should not be simply estimated by the magnitude of the change in the solar radiation over solar cycles when it is compared with other external radiative forcings that do not influence the climate in the same way as the sun does.     

Radiation observations at Aspendale,Australia, and their comparison with other data

Summary Results are presented of three years' measurements at Aspendale of net, global and diffuse radiation (R, G andD respectively) as well as of short-wave radiation on a north-facing surface (G _N ).The results are compared with other Australian radiation measurements, and the local character of the constants inÅngström type estimation formulae pointed out. A term is given which corrects such formulae by taking into account the uneven distribution of cloudiness over the day. The effect of orographic cloud on radiation is also discussed.After correction for climatological mean conditions, Aspendale summer values ofG are about 18% higher than those ofBlack [4] and ofBudyko [7]; the winter values agree reasonably. Summer and winter values ofR are considerably higher thanBudyko's—about 21% and 28% respectively. In addition some disagreement is found with the Australian Radiation Records 1953–1956.In winter, the amounts of diffuse and solar radiation (G-D) are about equal.

---

Zusammenfassung Die Resultate dreijähriger Registrierungen der Strahlungsbilanz, der Global- und der Himmelsstrahlung (R, G undD) sowie der kurzwelligen Strahlung auf eine Nordwand (G _N ) werden mitgeteilt.Die Ergebnisse werden mit anderen australischen Strahlungsmessungen verglichen, und die örtliche Abhängigkeit der Konstanten in den vonÅngström angegebenen Formeln wird hervorgehoben. Es wird eine Korrekturgröße in die Formeln eingeführt, mit der der Einfluß der ungleichmäßigen Verteilung der Bewölkung über den Tag erfaßt werden kann. Ferner wird der Effekt der orographisch bedingten Bewölkung auf die Strahlungssummen diskutiert.Es ergibt sich, daß nach Anbringung einer Korrektur auf klimatologische Durchschnittsverhältnisse die Globalstrahlungswerte von Aspendale im Sommer ungefähr um 18% größer sind als die vonBlack [4] und vonBudyko [7] angegebenen Werte; die Winterwerte stimmen einigermaßen überein. Sommer- und Winterwerte vonR sind um ungefähr 21% und 28% größer alsBudykos Werte. Es wurden auch Unterschiede zwischenG und den Australian Radiation Records 1953–1956 festgestellt.Im Winter sind die Beträge der Himmels- und der Sonnenstrahlung (G-D) annähernd gleich.

---

Résumé On décrit les résultats obtenus durant trois ans d'enregistrements du bilan du rayonnement, de la radiation globale et de celle du ciel (R, G etD), ainsi que du rayonnement d'ondes courtes reçu par une paroi exposée au nord (G _N ).Ces résultats sont alors comparés à d'autres mesures australiennes du rayonnement et l'on en tire la dépendance locale des constantes contenues dans les formules d'Ångström. On introduit ainsi un facteur de correction dans les dites formules. Ce facteur permet de tenir compte de l'influence des fluctuations de la nébulosité au cours de la journée. En outre, on discute les répercussions qu'ont les nuages orographiques sur les sommes de rayonnement.Il en résulte que, après l'application de la correction, les valeurs tirées des conditions climatologiques moyennes sont pour l'été, selon Aspendale, environ 18% supérieures à celles indiquées parBlack [4] et parBudyko [7], bien que les quantités hivernales correspondent à peu près. Les valeurs estivales et hivernales deR sont, elles, environ 21% et 28% plus importantes que celles deBudyko. On constate également une différence entreG et les «Australian Radiation Records» 1953–1956.Les valeurs de la radiation du ciel et du soleil (G-D) sont à peu près équivalentes en hiver.

---

---

With 13 Figures     

Hydrogen Peroxide at the Bermuda Atlantic Time Series Station. Part 1: Temporal Variability of Atmospheric Hydrogen Peroxide and Its Influence on Seawater Concentrations

Diurnal and seasonal variations in atmospheric hydrogen peroxideconcentrations wereinvestigated during a summer and winter cruise aboard the R.V. `Endeavor' atthe BermudaAtlantic Time Series Station. Rainwater peroxide concentrations in Augustdisplayed dielvariability while no temporal H₂O₂ pattern was evidentin March rain. Averageconcentrations in March were also significantly lower than August whichindicates photochemicalprocesses are involved in controlling hydrogen peroxide concentrations inmarine rainwaterfalling over the open ocean. The range of gas phase hydrogen peroxideconcentrations wasbetween 1 and 6 ppbv and also exhibited a strong diurnal pattern during bothAugust and Marchwith concentration maxima in the early evening. The influence of atmosphericdeposition onsurface seawater hydrogen peroxide levels was also evaluated. Hydrogenperoxide depth profileswere measured on four separate occasions before and after rain events duringthe Augustsampling period. The input of rainfall hydrogen peroxide was observedthroughout the 25 metermixed layer with surface concentrations two fold larger in the morning aftera rain event. Theintegrated increase in hydrogen peroxide after the rain from 0 to 90 meterswas 1,720 molalmost all of which could be accounted for by the peroxide added from rain.The data presentedin this study represent the first detailed, simultaneous measurements ofhydrogen peroxide inmarine air, rain and surface seawater.     

Atmospheric turbulence within and above a Douglas-fir stand. Part I: Statistical properties of the velocity field

This is the first of two papers reporting the results of a study of the turbulence regimes and exchange processes within and above an extensive Douglas-fir stand. The experiment was conducted on Vancouver Island during a two-week rainless period in July and August 1990. The experimental site was located on a 5^o slope. The stand, which was planted in 1962, and thinned and pruned uniformly in 1988, had a (projected) leaf area index of 5.4 and a heighth=16.7 m. Two eddy correlation units were operated in the daytime to measure the fluctuations in the three velocity components, air temperature and water vapour density, with one mounted permanently at a height of 23.0m (z/h=1.38) and the other at various heights in the stand with two to three 8-hour periods of measurement at each level. Humidity and radiation regimes both above and beneath the overstory and profiles of wind speed and air temperature were also measured. The most important findings are:

1. A marked secondary maximum in the wind speed profile occurred in the middle of the trunk space (aroundz/h=0.12). The turbulence intensities for the longitudinal and lateral velocity components increased with decreasing height, but the intensity for the vertical velocity component had a maximum atz/h=0.60 (middle of the canopy layer). Magnitudes of the higher order moments (skewness and kurtosis) for the three velocity components were higher in the canopy layer than in the trunk space and above the stand.
2. There was a 20% reduction in Reynolds stress fromz/h=1.00 to 1.38. Negative Reynolds stress or upward momentum flux perisistently occurred atz/h=0.12 and 0.42 (base of the canopy), and was correlated with negative wind speed gradients at the two heights. The longitudinal pressure gradient due to the land-sea/upslope-downslope circulations was believed to be the main factor responsible for the negative Reynolds stress.
3. Momentum transfer was highly intermittent. Sweep and ejection events dominated the transfer atz/h=0.60, 1.00 and 1.38, with sweeps playing the more important role of the two atz/h=0.60 and 1.00 and the less important role atz/h=1.38. But interaction events were of greater magnitude than sweep and ejection events atz/h=0.12 and 0.42.

     

Statistics of Scalar Fields in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Based on Large-Eddy Simulations. Part II: Forced Convection

Forced convection in a quasi-steady atmospheric boundary layer is investigated based on a large-eddy simulation (LES) model. The performed simulations show that in the upper portion of the mixed layer the dimensionless (in terms of mixed layer scales) vertical gradients of temperature, humidity, and wind velocity depend on the dimensionless height z/z _i and the Reech number Rn. The peak values of variances and covariances at the top of the mixed layer, scaled in terms of the interfacial scales, are functions of the interfacial Richardson number Ri. As a result expressions for the entrainment rates, in the case when the interfacial layer has a finite depth, and a condition for the presence of moistening or drying regimes in the mixed layer, are derived. Profiles of dimensionless scalar moments in the mixed layer are proposed to be expressed in terms of two empirical similarity functions F _m and F _i , dependent on dimensionless height z/z _i , and the interfacial Richardson number Ri. The obtained similarity expressions adequately approximate the LES profiles of scalar statistics, and properly represent the impact of stability, shear, and entrainment. They are also consistent with the parameterization proposed for free convection in the first part of this paper.     

Atmospheric turbulence within and above a douglas-fir stand. Part II: Eddy fluxes of sensible heat and water vapour

This is the second paper describing a study of the turbulence regimes and exchange processes within and above an extensive Douglas-fir stand. The experiment was conducted on Vancouver Island during a two-week rainless period in July and August 1990. Two eddy correlation units were operated in the daytime to measure the fluxes of sensible heat and water vapour and other turbulence statistics at various heights within and above the stand. Net radiation was measured above the overstory using a stationary net radiometer and beneath the overstory using a tram system. Supplementary measurements included soil heat flux, humidity above and beneath the overstory, profiles of wind speed and air temperature, and the spatial variation of sensible heat flux near the forest floor.The sum of sensible and latent heat fluxes above the stand accounted for, on average, 83% of the available energy flux. On some days, energy budget closure was far better than on others. The average value of the Bowen ratio was 2.1 above the stand and 1.4 beneath the overstory. The mid-morning value of the canopy resistance was 150–450 s/m during the experiment and mid-day value of the Omega factor was about 0.20. The daytime mean canopy resistance showed a strong dependence on the mean saturation deficit during the two-week experimental period.The sum of sensible and latent heat fluxes beneath the overstory accounted for 74% of the available energy flux beneath the overstory. One of the reasons for this energy imbalance was that the small number of soil heat flux plates and the short pathway of the radiometer tram system was unable to account for the large horizontal heterogeneity in the available energy flux beneath the overstory. On the other hand, good agreement was obtained among the measurements of sensible heat flux made near the forest floor at four positions 15 m apart.There was a constant flux layer in the trunk space, a large flux divergence in the canopy layer, and a constant flux layer above the stand. Counter-gradient flux of sensible heat constantly occurred at the base of the canopy.The transfer of sensible heat and water vapour was dominated by intermittent cool downdraft and warm updraft events and dry downdraft and moist updraft events, respectively, at all levels. For sensible heat flux, the ratio of the contribution of cool downdrafts to that of warm updrafts was greater than one in the canopy layer and less than one above the stand and near the forest floor.     

A comparison of reanalyses in the tropical stratosphere. Part 2: the quasi-biennial oscillation

 Reanalysis datasets potentially offer the opportunity to examine the tropical quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in greater detail than in the past, including the associated meridional circulation and the links with other parts of the atmosphere. For such studies to be useful, the QBO represented by the reanalyses should be realistic. In this work, the QBO in the ERA and NCEP reanalyses is validated against rawinsonde observations from Singapore. Monthly mean data are used. In the lower stratosphere (at 50 hPa and 30 hPa) the ERA QBO is reasonable, although the wind extrema in both phases are too weak and the vertical shear and the temperature anomalies are too small. The NCEP QBO is weaker still. At 10 hPa neither reanalysis system performs well, both systems failing to reproduce the westerlies, possibly because of the proximity of the upper boundary. The Singapore wind is representative of the zonal means in the reanalyses. The weak wind extrema in the reanalyses would not support a wave-mean flow interaction theory of the QBO, because a large portion of the gravity wave spectrum which would be absorbed in reality would be transmitted beyond 10 hPa. The stronger shear zones captured in the ERA data are associated with larger, more realistic temperature perturbations near 30 hPa. The northward velocities in the NCEP data show a more realistic structure than in the ERA reanalysis, where they are dominated by a vertical “gridpoint wave” structure in the lowermost stratosphere. Despite the shortcomings of the reanalyses, the high correlations of the wind at 30 hPa and 50 hPa with the observations at Singapore mean that the reanalyses could potentially be used to examine the effects of the QBO away from the tropical stratosphere. Future reanalyses need to take full account of the wind shears evident in the rawinsonde observations and use models with an adequate resolution to capture these vertical scales. Received: 23 June 1997/Accepted 17 December 1998     

Atmospheric concentrations of PAHs, their possible sources and gas-to-particle partitioning at a residential site of Bursa, Turkey

Atmospheric PAH concentrations were determined in Gulbahce district of Bursa, Turkey between August 2004 and April 2005. Measured PAH concentrations were classified as heating and non-heating season samples. The concentrations of total PAHs in heating season were almost ten times higher than those in non-heating season. Diagnostic ratios and factor analysis results show that in the heating season traffic along with residential heating emissions heavily influence PAH concentrations. The plot of logK_p versus logP_L⁰ for all the data set of heating and non-heating season samples gave significantly different slopes. The slope for the heating season samples (− 0.92) was steeper than the one for the non-heating season samples (− 0.78). The partitioning results for individual samples further indicated that slope values varied depending on air parcel trajectories. Air parcels traveled over water (either over the Black Sea or Aegean Sea) prior to arriving at the sampling site had less steep slopes. Partitioning of PAHs was also investigated by comparing experimentally determined K_p values with the results obtained both from octanol-based model (K_p(Oct.)) and soot and octanol-based model (K_p (Soot + Oct.)). Both models were useful in predicting the experimental K_p values. However, they did not explain the observed variability in the experimental K_p values.     

The past climate and sea-ice record from Iceland,Part 1: Data to A.D. 1780

A new reconstruction of the climate and sea-ice record for Iceland from medieval times to A.D. 1780 is presented, based on all available documentary sources. The importance of careful historical analysis to separate reliable from unreliable material is stressed, and these reconstructions are the first to have been produced using only reliable data. The major previous works on the subject (those of Thoroddsen, Koch, and Bergþórsson), which all include unreliable material, are discussed. Prior to A.D. 1600 the data are not considered to be full enough to permit a quantitative interpretation. For the period A.D. 1601 to 1780 decadal temperature and sea-ice indices are given.Although there is very little evidence for the first few centuries of settlement in Iceland (from c. 870 to c. 1170) the data suggest a fairly mild climatic period. Cold periods occurred around 1200, and at the end of the thirteenth century. The fourteenth century was very variable with a cold period in the 1350s to c. 1380. Between 1430 and c. 1560 there are very few contemporary sources and it is difficult to draw any conclusions on the climate during this time. The latter part of the sixteenth century was undoubtedly cold. From 1601 there are sufficient data to permit a decade by decade analysis. This shows a mild period between 1640 and 1670, and severe decades in the 1630s, 1690s, 1740s, and 1750s. Year to year and decade to decade variability is appreciable. The correlation between temperature and sea ice is not perfect but is still quite strong (similar to today). Because data have been gathered from different regions of Iceland it has been possible to demonstrate the spatial variability of Iceland's climate during the period 1601 to 1780. For example, during 1660 to 1700 there was a cooling in the north and west but warming in the south. The 1690s, the coldest decade of the Little Ice Age in Europe, was extremely cold in the west of Iceland, but less severe elsewhere.

---