New Perspectives on China’s Aluminium Utilization and Development

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Development and Utilization of the World’s and China’s Bulk Mineral Resources and their Supply and Demand Situation in the Next Twenty Years

Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world’s and China’s economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their resources base and potential, development and utilization and their world’s and China’s supply and demand situation in the future 20 years. The supply and demand of these six bulk mineral products are generally balanced, with a slight surplus, which will guarantee the stability of the international mineral commodity market supply. The six mineral resources(especially iron ores and copper ores) are abundant and have a great potential, and their development and utilization scale will gradually increase. Till the end of 2014, the reserveproduction ratio of iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc ores and potassium salt was 95 years, 42 years, 100 years, 17 years, 37 years and 170 years, respectively. Except lead ores, the other five types all have reserve-production ratio exceeding 20 years, indicative of a high resources guarantee degree. If the utilization of recycled metals is counted in, the supply of the world’s six mineral products will exceed the demand in the future twenty years. In 2015–2035, the supply of iron ores, refined copper, primary aluminum, refined lead, zinc and potassium salt will exceed their demand by 0.4–0.7 billion tons(Gt), 5.0–6.0 million tons(Mt), 1.1–8.9 Mt, 1.0–2.0 Mt, 1.2–2.0 Mt and 4.8–5.6 Mt, respectively. It is predicted that there is no problem with the supply side of bulk mineral products such as iron ores, but local or structural shortage may occur because of geopolitics, monopoly control, resources nationalism and trade friction. Affected by China’s compressed industrialized development model, the demand of iron ores(crude steel), potassium salt, refined lead, refined copper, bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc will gradually reach their peak in advance. The demand peak of iron ores(crude steel) will reach around 2015, 2016 for potassium salt, 2020 for refined lead, 2021 for bauxite(primary aluminum), 2022 for refined copper and 2023 for zinc. China’s demand for iron ores(crude steel), bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc in the future 20 years will decline among the world’s demand, while that for refined copper, refined lead and potassium salt will slightly increase. The demand for bulk mineral products still remains high. In 2015–2035, China’s accumulative demand for iron ores(crude steel) will be 20.313 Gt(13.429 Gt), 0.304 Gt for refined copper, 2.466 Gt(0.616 Gt) of bauxite(primary aluminum), 0.102 Gt of refined lead, 0.138 Gt of zinc and 0.157 Gt of potassium salt, and they account for the world’s YOY(YOY) accumulative demand of 35.17%, 51.09%, 48.47%, 46.62%, 43.95% and 21.84%, respectively. This proportion is 49.40%, 102.52%, 87.44%, 105.65%, 93.62% and 106.49% of that in 2014, respectively. From the supply side of China’s bulk mineral resources, it is forecasted that the accumulative supply of primary(mine) mineral products in 2015–2035 is 4.046 Gt of iron ores, 0.591 Gt of copper,1.129 Gt of bauxite, 63.661 Mt of(mine) lead, 0.109 Gt of(mine) zinc and 0.128 Gt of potassium salt, which accounts for 8.82%, 13.92%, 26.67%, 47.09%, 33.04% and 15.56% of the world’s predicted YOY production, respectively. With the rapid increase in the smelting capacity of iron and steel and alumina, the rate of capacity utilization for crude steel, refined copper, alumina, primary aluminum and refined lead in 2014 was 72.13%, 83.63%, 74.45%, 70.76% and 72.22%, respectively. During 2000–2014, the rate of capacity utilization for China’s crude steel and refined copper showed a generally fluctuating decrease, which leads to an insufficient supply of primary mineral products. It is forecasted that the supply insufficiency of iron ores in 2015–2035 is 17.44 Gt, 0.245 Gt of copper in copper concentrates, 1.337 Gt of bauxite, 38.44 Mt of lead in lead concentrates and 29.19 Mt of zinc in zinc concentrates. China has gradually raised the utilization of recycled metals, which has mitigated the insufficient supply of primary metal products to some extent. It is forecasted that in 2015–2035 the accumulative utilization amount of steel scrap(iron ores) is 3.27 Gt(5.08 Gt), 70.312 Mt of recycled copper, 0.2 Gt of recycled aluminum, 48 Mt of recycled lead and 7.7 Mt of recycled zinc. The analysis on the supply and demand situation of China’s bulk mineral resources in 2015–2035 suggests that the supply-demand contradiction for these six types of mineral products will decrease, indicative of a generally declining external dependency. If the use of recycled metal amount is counted in, the external dependency of China’s iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc and potassium salt will be 79%, 65%, 26%, 8%, 16% and 18% in 2014, respectively. It is predicted that this external dependency will decrease to 62%, 64%, 20%,-0.93%, 16% and 14% in 2020, respectively, showing an overall decreasing trend. We propose the following suggestions correspondingly.(1) The demand peak of China’s crude steel and potassium salt will reach during 2015–2023 in succession. Mining transformation should be planned and deployed in advance to deal with the arrival of this demand peak.(2) The supply-demand contradiction of China’s bulk mineral resources will mitigate in the future 20 years, and the external dependency will decrease accordingly. It is suggested to adjust the mineral resources management policies according to different minerals and regions, and regulate the exploration and development activities.(3) China should further establish and improve the forced mechanism of resolving the smelting overcapacity of steel, refined copper, primary aluminum, lead and zinc to really achieve the goal of "reducing excess production capacity".(4) In accordance with the national strategic deployment of "One Belt One Road", China should encourage the excess capacity of steel, copper, alumina and primary aluminum enterprises to transfer to those countries or areas with abundant resources, high energy matching degree and relatively excellent infrastructure. Based on the national conditions, mining condition and geopolitics of the resources countries, we will gradually build steel, copper, aluminum and lead-zinc smelting bases, and potash processing and production bases, which will promote the excess capacity to transfer to the overseas orderly.(5) It is proposed to strengthen the planning and management of renewable resources recycling and to construct industrial base of renewable metal recycling.(6) China should promote the comprehensive development and utilization of paragenetic and associated mineral species to further improve the comprehensive utilization of bulk mineral resources.     

Study on temporal and spatial evolution of China’s oil supply and consumption

To begin with, energy flow chart is used to analyze the status of China’s oil supply and consumption. Moreover, the temporal and spatial evolution of the oil production and oil products consumption in China is studied based on the gravity model. Finally, the decoupling index combined with the log mean Divisia index method is used to explore the contribution of the factors which influence terminal oil product consumption in China over the period 1991–2010. This paper draws the following results: (1) China’s net oil import dependency soared from 7.5 % in 1993 to 58.63 % in 2010. (2) The center of gravity for crude oil production and oil products consumption is an overall movement toward the southwest. (3) The economic activity effect is the critical factor in the growth of oil products consumption in China. However, industrial energy intensity effect plays the dominant role in decreasing oil products consumption. (4) The value of the decoupling index represented a re-coupling effect in 1996–1997 and 2003–2004. The other time interval showed weak decoupling effect.     

Moving Surface Spline Interpolation Based on Green’s Function

Some commonly used interpolation algorithms are analyzed briefly in this paper. Among all of the methods, biharmonic spline interpolation, which is based on Green’s function and proposed by Sandwell, has become the mainstream method for its high precision, simplicity and flexibility. However, the minimum curvature method has two flaws. First, it suffers from undesirable oscillations between data points, which is solved by interpolation with splines in tension. Second, the computation time is approximately proportional to the cube of the number of data constraints, making the method slow for situations with dense data coverage. Focusing on the second problem, this paper introduces the moving surface spline interpolation method based on Green’s function, and the interpolation error equations are deduced. Because the proposed method only chooses the nearest data points by using the merge sort algorithm for interpolating, the computation time is greatly decreased. The optimal number of the nearest points can be determined by using the interpolation error estimation equation. No matter how many data points there are, this method can be implemented without difficulty. Examples show that the proposed method can obtain high interpolation precision and high computation speed at the same time.     

Susceptibility evaluation and mapping of China’s landslides based on multi-source data

Landslides are occurring more frequently in China under the conditions of extreme rainfall and changing climate, according to News reports. Landslide hazard assessment remains an international focus on disaster prevention and mitigation, and it is an important step for compiling and quantitatively characterizing landslide damages. This paper collected and analyzed the historical landslide events data of the past 60 years in China. Validated by the frequencies and distributions of landslides, nine key factors (lithology, convexity, slope gradient, slope aspect, elevation, soil property, vegetation coverage, flow, and fracture) are selected to construct landslide susceptibility (LS) empirical models by back-propagation artificial neural network method. By integrating landslide empirical models with surface multi-source geospatial and remote sensing data, this paper further performs a large-scale LS assessment throughout China. The resulting landslide hazard assessment map of China clearly illustrates the hot spots of the high landslide potential areas, mostly concentrated in the southwest. The study implements a complete framework of multi-source data collecting, processing, modeling, and synthesizing that fulfills the assessment of LS and provides a theoretical basis and practical guide for predicting and mitigating landslide disasters potentially throughout China.

     

Distribution and Collection of China’s Dinosaurs

<正>It is estimated that the world has discovered more than1000 species and 800 genera of dinosaurs.Chinese scientists have named more than 170 species of dinosaurs,with 17 genera and 44 species of dinosaur egg fossils,35genera and 39 species of dinosaur footprints,since their first discovery in China in 1902.China has dinosaur occurrences from the Upper Triassic to the Upper     

Effects of gas pricing reform on China’s price level and total output

Natural gas plays an important role in the mitigation of climate change, yet its development is constrained by the current natural gas pricing mechanism in China. In the context of the natural gas pricing reform, this paper analyzes the potential effects on price level and total output. Through the input–output model, some conclusions are drawn as follows: (1) The gas pricing reform has relatively great impact on the products’ price of the sectors that have large gas consumption, such as industrial sectors and some service sectors, and on the total output of the gas production and supply sectors and the petroleum and natural gas extraction sectors, whereas the reform has relatively small impact on other industries; (2) effects of gas pricing reform on urban and rural residents are dissymmetrical, with larger effects on urban residents and (3) the reform has relatively small impacts on both various price indices and total output levels; thus, the government can realize the promotion of gas pricing reform nationwide at a cost of relatively small increase in general price level and little lose of total output.     

Effects of gas pricing reform on China’s price level and total output

Natural gas plays an important role in the mitigation of climate change, yet its development is constrained by the current natural gas pricing mechanism in China. In the context of the natural gas pricing reform, this paper analyzes the potential effects on price level and total output. Through the input–output model, some conclusions are drawn as follows: (1) The gas pricing reform has relatively great impact on the products’ price of the sectors that have large gas consumption, such as industrial sectors and some service sectors, and on the total output of the gas production and supply sectors and the petroleum and natural gas extraction sectors, whereas the reform has relatively small impact on other industries; (2) effects of gas pricing reform on urban and rural residents are dissymmetrical, with larger effects on urban residents and (3) the reform has relatively small impacts on both various price indices and total output levels; thus, the government can realize the promotion of gas pricing reform nationwide at a cost of relatively small increase in general price level and little lose of total output.

     

China’s regional meteorological disaster loss analysis and evaluation based on grey cluster model

To evaluate the regional meteorological disaster loss of China, this paper analyzed the different types of meteorological disasters, including droughts, floods, tropical storms, snowstorms and hail disasters. Based on the analysis about Chinese geographical features, the historical characteristics of different meteorological disasters are analyzed. In particular, these meteorological disasters influence to agriculture production are discussed. According to the analysis of data from 2004 to 2010, we know that the distribution characteristics are very different about different disasters. Provinces like Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Jilin, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Shanxi and Yunnan are serious affected areas of drought influence. And Anhui, Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Guangxi, Sichuan and Heilongjiang are serious affected areas by floods and heavy rain. While Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Shandong are mainly affected by tropical storms, Henan, Hebei, Hunan and Hubei are serious affected by snowstorms and hail disasters. Then, a novel method based on grey cluster model is constructed and combined with the regional meteorological disaster loss evaluation index system. A total of 31 provinces are considered to evaluate the integrated meteorological disaster losses. The results indicated that Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Xizang, Qinghai and Ningxia belong to the lighter loss grey class. Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Hainan, Sichuan and Gansu belong to the serious loss grey class. Other regions belong to the general loss grey class that the influence caused by meteorological disasters not better than the lighter loss grey class and not worst than the serious loss grey class.     

Tea forest in the making: Tea production and the ambiguity of modernity on China’s southwest frontier

The simultaneous but incompatible desires for both “tradition” and “advancement” have produced the “ambiguity of modernity” in the areas of minority nationalities (shaoshu minzu diqu) on China’s southwest frontier. This paper, in accordance, directly addresses the ambiguity of modernity through the investigation of the tea landscape in Yunnan. This essay builds on Aihwa Ong and Stephen Collier’s “global assemblage” framework to analyze the relationship between the “global form” of modernity and the situated assemblages of “ambiguity of modernity” in southwest China. Data are based on ethnographic research in the village of Mangjing, located in Jingmai Mountain, a renowned tea mountain in Yunnan. Most of the villagers in Mangjing are one of the minority nationalities of China, Bulang. I discuss the state-led project in transforming the modern tea plantation for “restoring” a landscape deemed as “ancient tea forest” (guchalin) in Mangjing. In addition, I address Bulang villagers’ and government officials’ multiple responses to the transformation of tea landscapes. I argue that the transformation of tea landscapes has been the practice to turn the “global form” of modernity into the shifting “assemblages” amongst tradition, modernity, science, and nature. The ambiguity of modernity has emerged from the shifting assemblages, providing both the state and Bulang villagers more leeway to symbolically and physically (re)produce meanings for the tea landscapes to meet the contingent market demand for tea. The transformation of tea landscapes, however, has become another process to perpetuate Bulang villagers’ social status of being “low quality” as China’s minority nationalities.     

The impact of acid rain on China’s socioeconomic vulnerability

Acid rain has been a great threat to socioeconomic sustainable development of China; therefore, we develop an indicator system based on the sensitivity and adaptive capacity perspectives and employ the TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) approach to investigate the impact of acid rain on socioeconomic vulnerability of China. Some empirical findings are obtained. First, there is significant provincial difference of socioeconomic vulnerability caused by acid rain in China. Specifically, Tibet, Qinghai, and Shanghai are the top three provinces with the largest vulnerability but Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Jilin are bottom of the rankings. Second, adaptive capacity indicators overall appear more important than sensitivity indicators to measure the vulnerability of acid rain, and the most important indicators are population density and output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery while GDP per capita ranks the last. Third, upgrading energy structure and reducing outdated capacity in China prove to be effective means to mitigate vulnerability of acid rain, which has been validated in Guizhou and Hunan provinces. Finally, great attention should be attached to the population increase so as to curb the acid rain vulnerability, especially in Beijing and Tianjin. These results present a basis for future acid rain prevention planning and economic development in China.     

Pareto’s law and sample size: a case study of China’s urban system 1984–2008

While Pareto’s law has been widely supported by empirical evidence in urban studies, past studies have focused on finding best fits for city rank-size distribution. A main concern with Pareto’s law is the truncation of sample selection, for which few studies have examined it directly. This study tests three existing threshold methods (number threshold, size threshold, and urban population percentage threshold) using China’s city system as a case study. In addition, this study proposes a new method based upon the percentage threshold of the total number of cities. A systematic analysis is applied to examine the relationship between Pareto exponent and sample size using different threshold methods. The results show that Pareto exponent is sensitive to sample size and the truncation point. Including only large cities is problematic because a slight change in the truncation point will yield quite different results of Pareto exponent. In addition, the new method, the percentage threshold of the total number of cities method, presents an advantage over previous methods, in that this method yields a consistent set of results over a wide range of thresholds. Finally, when using this new method with China’s city system, the Pareto exponent presents a turning point in 1996, representing China’s transition from a planned economy to a more market oriented economy during that period.     

Tourism dynamos: Selective commodification and developmental conservation in China’s protected areas

At scenic sites across China, rural officials compelled to maximize revenue use local state authority over protected areas to foster “tourism dynamos”. Local states set up infrastructure and institutions around rural attractions that channel the circulation of tourists, churning out revenues that meet quotas and fund further expansion of attractions and towns. To make these dynamos turn, local authorities have displaced resident-led tourism operations they had previously helped set up. Residents are reincorporated in varying ways and often retain land use rights. Meanwhile, as revenues stream out of attractions, what little is invested in environmental protection goes to maintaining scenery. Local governments also accomplish spatial transformations, within each park intensifying surplus generation in areas zoned for tourism while reserving other areas from use, and beyond park boundaries linking attractions together on tourism circuits radiating from central towns. This state-driven transformations depend on how the reservation of land from commodity exchange within protected areas comes together with specific state capacities to enable tourism intensification. These processes, which I label “developmental conservation,” call attention to selective commodifications and the mediating role of the state in protected area governance in China and beyond.     

Public participation in China’s green communities: Mobilizing memories and structuring incentives

In recent years, there has been heightened interest in creating more environmentally sustainable forms of urban development in China. Central in these greening initiatives has been increased attention on promoting public participation in community-based environmental activities. Focusing on China’s green community initiatives, we examine the production and effects of participation in a state-led development program. Our analysis considers how incentives for program organizers and participants are structured by broader political and economic imperatives facing Chinese cities. We also consider what influence China’s history of neighborhood-based mobilization campaigns had on the meanings and methods of participation in green communities. To understand how urban development processes and memories of mobilization influence participation at the local level, we present two examples of the community greening process from the city of Guangzhou, comparing policy outcomes between a new and older neighborhood. This article seeks to demonstrate that the participatory processes associated with such an urban environmental initiative cannot be adequately understood without reference to earlier participatory practices and broader policy priorities guiding development in Chinese cities.     

Risk evaluation of China’s natural disaster systems: an approach based on triangular fuzzy numbers and stochastic simulation

To deal effectively with the evaluation problem of natural disaster risk system affected by many uncertain factors, a multivariate connection number expression is presented. This expression is based on the index samples and evaluation grade criterions of natural disaster risk system and is capable of describing the hierarchy property and fuzziness of membership relationship between index samples and evaluation grade criterions. In this proposed method, the fuzzy evaluation grade criterion problem is resolved by combining triangular fuzzy numbers with multivariate connection number theory, and triangular fuzzy numbers are used to express the discrepancy degree coefficients of connection number and evaluation index weights. Accordingly, a connection number-based evaluation method for the natural disaster system of China (named CN-TFN for short) is established using triangular fuzzy numbers and stochastic simulation. The application results show that the spatial distribution of natural disaster risk grades of China has the trend of aggrandizement from west to east of China. The economically developed and densely populated coastal areas are very likely to have a high level of natural disaster risk grade or above; thus, these areas are the key regions of the natural disaster risk management of China. The results also show that the CN-TFN is able to reflect practical conditions of the evaluation problem of natural disaster system and to provide more reliability information as compared to the existing evaluation methods. This is as a result of its comprehensive usage of various information of subjective and objective uncertainties in the evaluation process of natural disaster risk system and its expression by confidence intervals. Due to the simplicity and generalization, the CN-TFM is applicable to comprehensive risk grade evaluation of various natural disaster systems.