共查询到19条相似文献,搜索用时 62 毫秒
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效存德 《气候变化研究进展》2008,4(01):1-7
南极科学委员会(SCAR)下属的"南极与全球气候系统(AGCS)计划"专家委员会发布了"南极与南大洋气候系统(SASOCS)"白皮书,重点评估了过去50 a南极地区气候系统的变化并预估了未来100 a情景。白皮书总体认为,过去50 a南极气候系统变化表现出很强的区域特征。南极半岛地区升温明显,半岛及亚南极岛屿上的冰川均处于退缩状态;南半球环状模(SAM)转为正位相,西南极上空的暖湿气团入侵加强,南极冬季对流层有升温趋势,平流层变冷,极涡消退日期推迟;东南极外围的南极底层水变淡,Weddell海区的底层水有变暖趋势。虽有上述区域变化,整个南极地区在过去50 a中近地面气温并无明显升高,降水亦无明显增加。自20世纪80年代以来海冰面积也无明显变化,只在某些扇区变化强烈。模式预估结果为:到21世纪末南极内陆地区将增暖(3.4±1.0)℃, 海冰面积将缩小约30%。现有的冰盖模式尚不足以回答未来气候变暖情景下冰盖融化与海平面变化之间的定量关系,有待更深入研究。 相似文献
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H.U.Dütsch 《气象科技》1982,(3):23-25
二十世纪七十年代,对臭氧的研究发展迅速,以新的见解表明了这种痕量气体对人类的重要性。在八十年代开始之际,回顾一下臭氧研究的早期工作,并且分析一下最近的发展情况,将有助于安排近期工作和长远计划。一、臭氧研究简史大约一百年前,Hanley发现臭氧能强烈地吸收紫外线,提出了这种气体具有能吸收阳光光谱中短于300毫微米部份的特性。Fafy和Buisson证实了这种意想不到的问题,并提出了测量高层大气中臭氧总含量的可行方法,开始了大气臭氧的研究,迄今已有六十多年了。 相似文献
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中央气象台成立到今天,已经走过60年的风雨历程。文章回顾中央气象台天气预报业务的发展历程、总结中央气象台天气预报业务的现有成就、展望中央气象台预报业务的未来,使我们更加坚定预报业务发展的信心。 相似文献
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南极涛动和南极绕极波的年代际变化 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
用1951年1月~2002年12月共624个月的海平面气压、 温度和850 hPa西风的NCEP再分析资料, 分析定义了南极涛动指数 (简称AAOI) 和850 hPa的南极涛动西风指数 (简称Uaaoi), 并讨论了它们的长期变化趋势和年代际跃变及其对南极绕极波的影响。结果表明, AAOI和Uaaoi的变化非常相似, 两者的同期相关系数高达0.218 (624个月), 超过了99.9%信度检验。当AAOI为高指数时, Uaaoi也为高指数, 即西风增加; 当AAOI为低指数时, Uaaoi也为低指数, 即西风减弱。AAOI和Uaaoi都有明显的长期趋势, 倾向率分别为0.01915/10 a和0.009249/10 a。1972年是跃变点, 跃变前AAOI的年平均值为-3.9691 hPa; 跃变后为2.9107 hPa。而在60°S 附近, 跃变前年平均西风为-1.09 m/s, 跃变后为0.93 m/s, 二者差达2.02 m/s。它们的主要振荡周期为3~5年。对50°S~60°S平均纬圈的海平面气压 (sea level pressure, 简称SLP) 和温度 (624月) 作3~5年滤波, 它的经度时间剖面图表明: 近50多年来南极绕极波均为自西向东的行波, 绕南极一周跃变前约4.4年, 跃变后约3.6年。南半球的SLP和温度经3~5年滤波后, 它的EOF展开第一特征向量的空间型表明: 跃变前以3波振动为主, 跃变后以2波振动为主。 相似文献
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青藏高原气温和降水近期、中期与长期变化的预估及其不确定性来源 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
采用第五次耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5,CMIP5)高分辨率全球统计降尺度预估数据集,针对近期(2020—2039年)、中期(2040—2059年)和长期(2080—2099年),以及全球1.5℃和2℃温升阈值,预估了青藏高原地区平均气温和降水、极端气温和极端降水的变化,定量估算了预估结果的不确定性来源。结果表明:(1)在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,21世纪青藏高原地区平均气温和降水、极端气温和极端降水强度均显著增加,最长连续干旱天气减少。高原气候变化幅度超全球平均,至21世纪末,模式集合预估的气候变化幅度介于全球平均的1.5~3倍。(2)青藏高原地区受0.5℃额外增温的显著影响,年均气温、极端高温和极端低温均显著升高,平均及极端强降水均显著增加。(3)排放情景的选择对近期气候预估影响小,但对长期影响大。在相同排放情景下,内部变率主导了近期高原平均气温预估的不确定性,但至长期其贡献降至10%以下。模式和内部变率的不确定性对降水预估均有贡献,且都随时间减小,最大不确定性中心位于西部和北部边缘,噪声与信号比大于6。 相似文献
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南极地区的大气环流流体物理实验 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:2
通过流体物理实验,研究南极地形及冷源对大气环流的影响。正压流体实验表明,由于地形动力强迫,在南极大陆沿岸及以北地区生成气旋性涡旋带,有3个低压中心。在地形上空生成巨大的反气旋。斜压流体实验表明,东移“行星波”的波数及波形有准周期低频振荡,其振荡周期相当于地球大气系统中的21d。东移的槽在110°E以东逐渐发展,在160°W的罗斯海附近发展得最深,再往东则逐渐减弱 相似文献
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气候系统模式对Hadley环流的模拟和未来变化预估 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
针对全球变暖背景下未来Hadley环流将如何变化这一问题,评估了气候系统模式对1970~1999年Hadley环流时空特征的模拟效能,并在此基础上选取能合理模拟Hadley环流空间结构、强度指数和边界指数变化的3个模式,通过多模式集合方法预估了未来Hadley环流在A1B排放情景下的可能演变。预估结果表明,在全球变暖背景下,相比于1970~1999年,到本世纪末期(2070~2099年),北半球Hadley环流在4个季节都将减弱,春季变化幅度相对较弱;南半球Hadley环流在冬季和夏季也会减弱,而在春季和秋季的变化不明显。另外,北半球Hadley环流的北边界除在夏季向南收缩外,在其它3个季节均向北伸展;南半球Hadley环流的南边界在4个季节均向极地方向移动。两个半球的Hadley环流在垂直方向还将向对流层上层伸展。
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J. Murray Mitchell Jr. 《Climatic change》1990,16(2):231-246
Paleoclimatic studies help us to gain valuable perspectives and insights into the nature and possible origins of present-day climatic variations that are beyond the reach of conventional historical weather data to provide. In this informal paper, the author lends some personal perspectives on the importance of paleoclimatic studies for the purpose of assessing the future of our climate, and illustrates this by focusing in particular on how tree-ring analyses may elucidate the chronology of changing risks of past and future outbreaks of major droughts in the American West. 相似文献
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考虑水汽相变的凝结潜热作用,引入广义位温,发展了包含广义位温的
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南极冰盖与海冰对全球气候具有重要影响。大气河作为高纬度地区经向水汽输送的重要途径,其对南极冰盖与海冰的影响在近年来愈发受到重视。南极大气河通常形成于高压脊(阻塞高压)与温带气旋之间的强向极经向输送带内。低频的大气河活动为南极带来强降雪,有利于冰盖质量增加。然而,强暖湿水汽侵入同时会导致表面融化、冰架崩解和极端高温,对冰盖质量存在潜在负贡献。大气河携带极端暖湿水汽与强风通过热力与动力过程导致海冰密集度下降。目前,大气河的识别算法仍不完善,其对液态降水的直接影响、与南大洋的相互作用等仍不清楚,需要进一步明晰大气河对南极冰盖与海冰的影响机制,以准确预估未来大气河对南极冰盖物质平衡与海冰变化的作用。 相似文献
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The relative contributions of atmospheric fluctuations on 6 h?2 d,2?8 d,and 8 d?1 month time scales to the changes in the air?sea fluxes,the SO circulation,and Antarctic sea ice are investigated.It was found that the imposed forcing variability on the three time scales creates a significant increase in wind power input,and hence an increase of about 50%,97%,and 5%of eddy kinetic energy relative to the simulation driven by monthly forcing,respectively.Also,SO circulation and the strength of the upper cell of meridional overturning circulation become strengthened.These results indicate more dominant effects of atmospheric variability on the 2?8 d time scale on the SO circulation.Meanwhile,the 6 h?2 d(2?8 d)atmospheric variability causes an increase in the total sea-ice extent,area,and volume,by about 33%,30%,and 19%(17%,20%,and 25%),respectively,relative to those in the experiment forced by monthly atmospheric variables.Such significant sea-ice increases are caused by a cooler ocean surface and stronger sea-ice transports owing to the enhanced heat losses and air-ice stresses induced by the atmospheric variability at 6 h?2 d and 2?8 d,while the effects of the variability at 8 d?1 month are rather weak.The influences of atmospheric variability found here mainly result from wind fluctuations.Our findings in this study indicate the importance of properly resolving high-frequency atmospheric variability in modeling studies. 相似文献
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To begin exploring the underlying mechanisms that couple vegetation to cloud formation processes, we derive the lifting condensation
level (LCL) to estimate cumulus cloud base height. Using a fully coupled land–ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (HadCM3LC),
we investigate Amazonian forest feedbacks on cloud formation over three geological periods; modern-day (a.d. 1970–1990), the last glacial maximum (LGM; 21 kya), and under a future climate scenario (IS92a; a.d. 2070–2090). Results indicate that for both past and future climate scenarios, LCL is higher relative to modern-day. Statistical
analyses indicate that the 800 m increase in LCL during the LGM is related primarily to the drier atmosphere promoted by lower
tropical sea surface temperatures. In contrast, the predicted 1,000 m increase in LCL in the future scenario is the result
of a large increase in surface temperature and reduced vegetation cover. 相似文献
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Jiping LIU David BROMWICH Dake CHEN Raul CORDERO Thomas JUNG Marilyn RAPHAEL John TURNER Qinghua YANG 《大气科学进展》2020,37(5):421-422
<正>The Antarctic, including the continent of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, is a critically important part of the Earth system. Research in Antarctic meteorology and climate has always been a challenging endeavor. Studying and predicting weather patterns in the Antarctic are important for understanding their role in local-to-global processes and facilitating field 相似文献
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There are very strong thermal gradients between the Antarctic continent and the sea-ice zone, and between that zone and the
ocean to the north. As a result of these contrasts the sea-ice domain is one of strong cyclogenesis and high cyclone frequency.
In this study we explore many aspects of that cyclonic behaviour and investigate the manner in which these systems influence,
and are influenced by, the sea ice. Using the NCEP-DOE re-analyses (1979–2002) we have determined variables that are proportional
to the mean of the wind stress and the mean rate at which mechanical energy is imparted to the surface. Using two decompositions
of the wind field we have obtained estimates of how much of these fluxes are contributed to by the transient eddies. We find
these to be significant over the sea ice and the ocean to the north, particularly when a new decomposition is used. The presence
of frequent and vigorous cyclones is a central factor that determines the positive mean freshwater flux over the sea-ice zone
in all seasons. This transfer to the ocean is smallest in summer (0.49 mm day−1) and assumes a maximum of 1.27 mm day−1 in winter. 相似文献
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An advanced one-dimensional radiative-convective model (RCM) is used to estimate the past, present and fu-ture climatic forcings induced by greenhouse gases of anthropogenic origin, such as CO2, CH4, N2O and CFCs, in this paper. The results show that the decadal climatic forcing for the last decade is one-order bigger than that prior to the year 1900, and in the case of no control on the emission of the greenhouse gases the climatic forcing for the year 2100 will be almost 4 times as much as now. 相似文献
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利用耦合模式比较计划(CMIP3)提供的20世纪气候模拟试验(20C3M)及A1B情景预估试验,讨论了全球增暖情景下21世纪中期中国气候的可能变化。结果表明,A1B情景下,中国夏季降水变化在-0.1~1.1mm/d,冬季降水变化在-0.2~0.2mm/d。模式对降水变化的预估存在较大不确定性。无论冬夏,预估的全国表面气温都将升高,升温幅度在1.2~2.8℃;随纬度升高,增暖幅度相应增大。模式对表面气温变化的预估能力强于对降水变化的预估能力。在A1B情景下,东亚夏季风增强,而冬季风则略为减弱,东亚夏季风雨带到达最北后南撤的时间较之20C3M滞后约一个月。 相似文献