Climate changes and recent glacier behaviour in the Chilean Lake District

Atmospheric temperatures measured at the Chilean Lake District (38°–42°S) showed contrasting trends during the second half of the 20th century. The surface cooling detected at several meteorological stations ranged from − 0.014 to − 0.021 °C a^− 1, whilst upper troposphere (850–300 gpm) records at radiosonde of Puerto Montt (41°26′S/73°07′W) revealed warming between 0.019 and 0.031 °C a^− 1. Regional rainfall data collected from 1961 to 2000 showed the overall decrease with a maximum rate of − 15 mm a^− 2 at Valdivia st. (39°38′S/73°05′W). These ongoing climatic changes, especially the precipitation reduction, seem to be related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena which has been more frequent after 1976. Glaciers within the Chilean Lake District have significantly retreated during recent decades, in an apparent out-of-phase response to the regional surface cooling. Moreover, very little is known about upper troposphere changes and how they can enhance the glacier responses. In order to analyse their behaviour in the context of the observed climate changes, Casa Pangue glacier (41°08′S/71°52′W) has been selected and studied by comparing Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) computed at three different dates throughout the last four decades. This approach allowed the determination of ice elevation changes between 1961 and 1998, yielding a mean thinning rate of − 2.3 ± 0.6 m a^− 1. Strikingly, when ice thinning is computed for the period between 1981 and 1998, the resulting rate is 50% higher (− 3.6 ± 0.6 m a^− 1). This enhanced trend and the related area loss and frontal retreat suggests that Casa Pangue might currently be suffering negative mass balances in response to the upper troposphere warming and decreased precipitation of the last 25–30 yr, as well as debris cover would not prevent the glacier from a fast reaction to climate forcing. Most of recent glaciological studies regarding Andean glaciers have concentrated on low altitude changes, namely frontal variations, however, in order to better understand the regional glacier changes, new data are necessary, especially from the accumulation areas.     

Computation of the space and time evolution of equilibrium-line altitudes on Andean glaciers (10°N–55°S)

A previous study of Fox [Fox, A.N. 1993. Snowline altitude and climate at present and during the Last Pleistocene Glacial Maximum in the Central Andes (5°–28°S). Ph.D. Thesis. Cornell University.] showed that for a fixed 0 °C isotherm altitude, the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) of the Peruvian and Bolivian glaciers from 5 to 20°S can be expressed based on a log–normal expression of local mid-annual rainfall amount (P). In order to extrapolate the function to the whole Andes (10°N to 55°S) a local 0 °C isotherm altitude is introduced. Two applications of this generalised function are presented. One concerns the space evolution of mean inter-annual ELA for three decades (1961–1990) over the whole South American continent. A high-resolution data set (grid data: 10′ for latitude/longitude) of mean monthly air surface temperature and precipitation is used. Mean annual values over the 1961–1990 period were calculated. On each grid element, the mean annual 0 °C isotherm altitude is determined from an altitudinal temperature gradient and mean annual temperature (T) at ground level. The 0 °C isotherm altitude is then associated with the annual precipitation amount to compute the ELA. Using computed ELA and the digital terrain elevation model GTOPO30, we determine the extent of the glacierised area in Andean regions under modern climatic conditions. The other application concerns the ELA time evolution on Zongo Glacier (Bolivia), where inter-annual ELA variations are computed from 1995 to 1999. For both applications, the computed values of ELA are in good agreement with those derived from glacier mass balance measurements.     

Long-chain alkenones and U37′ variability along a south–north transect in the Western Pacific Ocean

In this paper, we present 50 surface water samples collected during the IMAGES III cruise (June–July 1997) along a transect from New Zealand to the China Sea (42°S–178°E, 21°N–120°E) covering a temperature range from 13.3 to 30.4 °C. A very worthwhile aspect of this study is a coupling of both biomarker (alkenone) and coccolithophorid counting. We show that the U₃₇^k′–temperature relationship is very similar to the Prahl et al. [Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 52 (1988) 2203] culture calibration and to the global core top calibration of Müller et al. [Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 62 (1998) 1757]. However, in the warmest surface waters of the Western Pacific ocean (>26.4 °C) where Gephyrocapsa oceanica is likely the most widespread species, the associated U₃₇^k′ has a constant value of 1.0. The consequence is that above this temperature threshold, U₃₇^k′ cannot be used as an accurate paleothermometer.     

The 2003 November 14 occultation by Titan of TYC 1343-1865-1: II. Analysis of light curves

We observed a stellar occultation by Titan on 2003 November 14 from La Palma Observatory using ULTRACAM with three Sloan filters: u^′, g^′, and i^′ (358, 487, and 758 nm, respectively). The occultation probed latitudes 2° S and 1° N during immersion and emersion, respectively. A prominent central flash was present in only the i^′ filter, indicating wavelength-dependent atmospheric extinction. We inverted the light curves to obtain six lower-limit temperature profiles between 335 and 485 km (0.04 and 0.003 mb) altitude. The i^′ profiles agreed with the temperature measured by the Huygens Atmospheric Structure Instrument [Fulchignoni, M., and 43 colleagues, 2005. Nature 438, 785–791] above 415 km (0.01 mb). The profiles obtained from different wavelength filters systematically diverge as altitude decreases, which implies significant extinction in the light curves. Applying an extinction model [Elliot, J.L., Young, L.A., 1992. Astron. J. 103, 991–1015] gave the altitudes of line of sight optical depth equal to unity: 396±7 and 401±20 km (u^′ immersion and emersion); 354±7 and 387±7 km (g^′ immersion and emersion); and 336±5 and 318±4 km (i^′ immersion and emersion). Further analysis showed that the optical depth follows a power law in wavelength with index 1.3±0.2. We present a new method for determining temperature from scintillation spikes in the occulting body's atmosphere. Temperatures derived with this method are equal to or warmer than those measured by the Huygens Atmospheric Structure Instrument. Using the highly structured, three-peaked central flash, we confirmed the shape of Titan's middle atmosphere using a model originally derived for a previous Titan occultation [Hubbard, W.B., and 45 colleagues, 1993. Astron. Astrophys. 269, 541–563].     

The hydrological signal of the Perito Moreno Glacier damming of Lake Argentino (southern Andean Patagonia): the connection to climate anomalies

The periodic damming of Lake Argentino by the Perito Moreno Glacier (50°30′S, 73° 00′W) in Argentina's southern Patagonian Andes has been recorded seventeen times since the beginning of this century. Such events are significant factors controlling discharge anomalies (seasonal component removed) of the Santa Cruz River, the sole outlet of Lake Argentino. Power spectrum analysis of the deseasonalized discharge revealed significant period peaks in the 33- to 36-month range and in the 42- to 58-month range. The first frequency is probably determined by the anomalous position of the subtropical anticyclones in the Pacific (with 2–5 years recurrence intervals), whereas the remaining frequencies are coincidental with the multivariate ENSO index (MEI) frequency spectrum. Significant squared coherency (>0.78) between the Santa Cruz River discharge anomalies and the MEI suggests that there is a significant teleconnection between ENSO occurrences in the Pacific and the Perito Moreno Glacier dynamics. El Niño events, for example, appear to have fostered the advancement of the glacier's snout and influenced the recorded damming–rupture sequence.     

Late Pleistocene deep-water circulation in the subantarctic eastern Atlantic

We present three new benthic foraminiferal δ¹³C, δ¹⁸O, and total organic carbon time series from the eastern Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean between 41°S and 47°S. The measured glacial δ¹³C values belong to the lowest hitherto reported. We demonstrate a coincidence between depleted late Holocene (LH) δ¹³C values and positions of sites relative to ocean surface productivity. A correction of +0.3 to +0.4 [‰ VPDB] for a productivity-induced depletion of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) benthic δ¹³C values of these cores is suggested. The new data are compiled with published data from 13 sediment cores from the eastern Atlantic Ocean between 19°S and 47°S, and the regional deep and bottom water circulation is reconstructed for LH (4–0 ka) and LGM (22–16 ka) times. This extends earlier eastern Atlantic-wide synoptic reconstructions which suffered from the lack of data south of 20°S. A conceptual model of LGM deep-water circulation is discussed that, after correction of southernmost cores below the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) for a productivity-induced artifact, suggests a reduced formation of both North Atlantic Deep Water in the northern Atlantic and bottom water in the southwestern Weddell Sea. This reduction was compensated for by the formation of deep water in the zone of extended winter sea-ice coverage at the northern rim of the Weddell Sea, where air–sea gas exchange was reduced. This shift from LGM deep-water formation in the region south of the ACC to Holocene bottom water formation in the southwestern Weddell Sea, can explain lower preformed δ¹³C_DIC values of glacial circumantarctic deep water of approximately 0.3‰ to 0.4‰. Our reconstruction brings Atlantic and Southern Ocean δ¹³C and Cd/Ca data into better agreement, but is in conflict, however, with a scenario of an essentially unchanged thermohaline deep circulation on a global scale. Benthic δ¹⁸O-derived LGM bottom water temperatures, by 1.9°C and 0.3°C lower than during the LH at deepest southern and shallowest northern sites, respectively, agree with the here proposed reconstruction of deep-water circulation in the eastern South Atlantic Ocean.     

Spatially resolved cloud structure on Uranus: Implications of near-IR adaptive optics imaging

Seven-band near-IR adaptive optics imaging of Uranus by the Keck II telescope during 2004, with the assistance of selected Hubble Space Telescope images, provides new constraints on the uranian vertical cloud structure and CH₄ mixing ratio, after tuned deconvolutions are applied to remove significant limb darkening distortions. The most strongly absorbing bands approximately agree with the stratospheric haze model of Rages et al. [Rages, K., Pollack, J.B., Tomasko, M.G., Doose, L.R., 1991. Icarus 89, 359–376]. The next most absorbing bands suggest a CH₄ relative humidity of 50–60% above the 1.2-bar condensation level. Window channels imply effective cloud pressures at 12° S that vary from 9 to 3.5 bars, and reflectivity values that vary from 7 to 4%, as the assumed CH₄ mixing ratio varies from 0.75 to 4%. The shape of the center-to-limb radiance profile is in best agreement with the deep cloud being translucent, with relatively low optical depth, and is most consistent with low methane mixing ratios (0.75–1%) if the cloud particles are conservative. Non-conservative particles provide good fits over a wide range of mixing ratios. If C and S are enhanced by the same factor over solar mixing ratios, then the cloud pressures inferred from near-IR observations would be less than H₂S condensation pressures for methane mixing ratios of 1.3% or greater. The bright band at 45° S must be partly produced by increased particulate scattering at pressures 2 bars to be consistent with its absence in 1.9-μm images and its presence in 0.619-μm images. The reflectivity of the lower clouds declines to nearly negligible values in the northern hemisphere, where I/F observations beyond 50° N are nearly those of a clear atmosphere. The most surprising result is the general lack of scattering originating from the 1.2-bar region where methane is expected to condense. Exceptions occur for discrete features. A large and long-lived discrete feature at 34° S is associated with particulates near 700 mb and 4.5 bars. The highest discrete feature, near 26° N, reached pressures 200 mb and was eleven times brighter than the background atmosphere in K^′ images.     

Gome Solar UV/VIS Irradiance Measurements between 1995 and 1997 – First Results on Proxy Solar Activity Studies

The Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) is the first of a series of European satellite instruments monitoring global ozone and other relevant trace constituents in the UV/visible spectral range. On 20 April 1995, the European Space Agency (ESA) launched the GOME from Kourou, French Guyana, aboard the second European Remote Sensing satellite (ERS-2). In order to obtain the geometric albedo from the backscattered terrestrial radiance measurements, a solar irradiance measurement sequence in the spectral range between 240 nm and 790 nm is carried out once every day. The GOME solar irradiance is recorded at a moderate spectral resolution (0.2–0.4 nm), thus providing an excellent opportunity to contribute to the long-term investigation of solar flux variation associated with the 11-year solar activity cycle from space, which started in 1978 with SBUV (Solar Backscatter UV Experiment) observations on Nimbus-7 and covers solar cycles 21 and 22. This paper briefly describes the GOME spectrometer and measurement mode which are relevant to the solar viewing. Preliminary results from the solar irradiance measurements between 1995 and 1997 and comparisons to SSBUV-8 (Shuttle SBUV) in January 1996 are presented. Solar activity indices used as proxies for solar flux variation are often used to find a correlation with observed variation in atmospheric quantities, for instance, total ozone. Initial results from the GOME Mgii (280 nm) and Caii K (393 nm) solar activity index calculation are presented and discussed. The coupling of solar irradiance variability to global change is a current source of scientific and public concern. This study shows that GOME/ERS-2 (1995–2001) and the next generation of European remote sensing instruments, SCIAMACHY and GOME/METOP, have the potential to provide continuity in the measurements of solar irradiance from space well into the next century.     

Modelling solar irradiance variations with an area dependent photometric sunspot index

The He 1083 nm line equivalent width and the 10.7 cm radio flux are employed to model the total solar irradiance corrected for sunspot deficit. A new area dependent photometric sunspot index (APSI) based on sunspot photometry by Steinegger et al. (1990) is used to correct the irradiance data for sunspot deficits. Two periods of time are investigated: firstly, the 1980–1989 period between the maxima of solar cycles 21 and 22; this period is covered by ACRIM I irradiance data. Secondly, the 1978–92 period which includes both maxima; here, the revised Nimbus-7 ERB data are used.For both He 1083 nm and 10.7 cm radio flux irradiance models as well as ACRIM I and ERB irradiance data, the APSI yields an improved fit compared to the one obtained with the standard Photometric Sunspot Index (PSI) which uses a constant bolometric spot contrast. With APSI, the standard deviation calculated from daily values is 0.461 Wm^–2 for the period 1980–89 modelling ACRIM I vs. He 1083 nm, as compared to 0.478 when PSI is used, and to 0.531 for the uncorrected ACRIM series. A similar improvement is obtained for the same period modelling ERB vs. He 1083 nm, while there is almost no improvement for the long period.As a general result the models provide a good fit with the spot-deficit.-corrected irradiance only during the period between the maxima. If both maxima are included (period 1978–92) the He 1083 nm and 10.7 cm radio flux models show appreciably larger discrepancies to the irradiances corrected for PSI or APSI.     

Mid–late Holocene monsoon climate retrieved from seasonal Sr/Ca and δO records of Porites lutea corals at Leizhou Peninsula, northern coast of South China Sea

South China Sea (SCS) is a major moisture source region, providing summer monsoon rainfall throughout Mainland China, which accounts for more than 80% total precipitation in the region. We report seasonal to monthly resolution Sr/Ca and δ¹⁸O data for five Holocene and one modern Porites corals, each covering a growth history of 9–13 years. The results reveal a general decreasing trend in sea surface temperature (SST) in the SCS from 6800 to 1500 years ago, despite shorter climatic cycles. Compared with the mean Sr/Ca–SST in the 1990s (24.8 °C), 10-year mean Sr/Ca–SSTs were 0.9–0.5 °C higher between 6.8 and 5.0 thousand years before present (ky BP), dropped to the present level by 2.5 ky BP, and reached a low of 22.6 °C (2.2 °C lower) by 1.5 ky BP. The summer Sr/Ca–SST maxima, which are more reliable due to faster summer-time growth rates and higher sampling resolution, follow the same trend, i.e. being 1–2 °C higher between 6.8 and 5.0 ky BP, dropping to the present level by 2.5 ky BP, and reaching a low of 28.7 °C (0.7 °C lower) by 1.5 ky BP. Such a decline in SST is accompanied by a similar decrease in the amount of monsoon moisture transported out of South China Sea, resulting in a general decrease in the seawater δ¹⁸O values, reflected by offsets of mean δ¹⁸O relative to that in the 1990s. This observation is consistent with general weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon since early Holocene, in response to a continuous decline in solar radiation, which was also found in pollen, lake-level and loess/paleosol records throughout Mainland China. The climatic conditions 2.5 and 1.5 ky ago were also recorded in Chinese history. In contrast with the general cooling trend of the monsoon climate in East Asia, SST increased dramatically in recent time, with that in the 1990s being 2.2 °C warmer than that 1.5 ky ago. This clearly indicates that the increase in the concentration of anthropogenic greenhouse gases played a dominant role in recent global warming, which reversed the natural climatic trend in East Asian monsoon regime.     

Thermosteric sea level rise for the past 50 years; comparison with tide gauges and inference on water mass contribution

In this paper we compare sea level trends observed at a few selected tide gauges of good quality records with thermosteric (i.e., due to ocean temperature change) sea level trends over 1950–1998 using different gridded ocean temperature data sets from Levitus et al. (2000) [Levitus, S., Stephens, C., Antonov, J.I., Boyer, T.P., 2000. Yearly and Year-Season Upper Ocean Temperature Anomaly Fields, 1948–1998. U.S. Gov. Printing Office, Washington, D.C. pp. 23.], Ishii et al. (2003) [Ishii, M., Kimoto, M., Kachi, M., 2003. Historical ocean subsurface temperature analysis with error estimates, Mon. Weather Rev., 131, 51–73.] and Levitus et al. (2005) [Levitus S., Antonov, J.I., Boyer, T.P., 2005. Warming of the world ocean, 1955–2003. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L02604. doi:10.1029/2004GL021592.]. When using the Levitus data, we observe very high thermosteric rates at sites located along the northeast coast of the US, north of 37°N. Such high rates are not observed with the Ishii data. Elsewhere, thermosteric rates agree reasonably well whatever the data set. Excluding the northeast US coastline sites north of 37°N, we compare tide gauge-based sea level trends with thermosteric trends and note that, in spite of a significant correlation, the latter are too small to explain the observed trends. After correcting for thermosteric sea level trends, residual (observed minus thermosteric) trends have an average value of 1.4 ± 0.5 mm/year, which should have an eustatic (i.e., due to ocean mass change) origin. This result supports the recent investigation by Miller and Douglas (2004) [Miller, L., Douglas, B.C., 2004. Mass and volume contributions to 20th century global sea level rise. Nature 428, 406–408.] which suggests that a dominant eustatic contribution is needed to explain the rate of sea level rise of the last decades observed by tide gauges, and shows that Cabanes et al. (2001) [Cabanes, C., Cazenave, A., Le Provost, C., 2001. Sea level rise during past 40 years determined from satellite and in situ observations. Science 294, 840–842.] arrived at an incorrect conclusion due to peculiarities in the gridded Levitus et al. (2000) [Levitus, S., Stephens, C., Antonov, J.I., and Boyer, T.P., 2000. Yearly and Year-Season Upper Ocean Temperature Anomaly Fields, 1948–1998. U.S. Gov. Printing Office, Washington, D.C. pp. 23.] data set.     

Continental European Eemian and early Würmian climate evolution: comparing signals using different quantitative reconstruction approaches based on pollen

Analyses of Eemian climate dynamics based on different reconstruction methods were conducted for several pollen sequences in the northern alpine foreland. The modern analogue and mutual climate sphere techniques used, which are briefly presented, complement one another with respect to comparable results. The reconstructions reveal the occurrence of at least two similar thermal periods, representing temperate oceanic conditions warmer and with a higher humidity than today. Intense changes of climate processes become obvious with a shift of winter temperatures of about 15 °C from the late Rissian to the first thermal optimum of the Eemian. The transition shows a pattern of summer temperatures and precipitation increasing more rapidly than winter temperatures. With the first optimum during the Pinus–Quercetum mixtum–Corylus phase (PQC) at an early stage of the Eemian and a second optimum period at a later stage, which is characterised by widespread Carpinus, climate gradients across the study area were less intense than today. Average winter temperatures vary between −1.9 and 0.4 °C (present-day −3.6 to 1.4 °C), summer temperatures between 17.8 and 19.6 °C (present-day 14 to 18.9 °C). The timberline expanded about 350 m when compared to the present-day limit represented by Pinus mugo. Whereas the maximum of temperature parameters is related to the first optimum, precipitation above 1100 mm is higher during the second warm period concomitant to somewhat reduced temperatures. Intermediate, smaller climate oscillations and a cooling becomes obvious, which admittedly represent moderate deterioration but not extreme chills. During the boreal semicontinental Eemian Pinus–Picea–Abies phase, another less distinct fluctuation occurs, initiating the oscillating shift from temperate to cold conditions.     

Estimation of net accumulation rate at a Patagonian glacier by ice core analyses using snow algae

Snow algae in a 45.97-m-long ice core from the Tyndall Glacier (50°59′05″S, 73°31′12″W, 1756 m a.s.l.) in the Southern Patagonian Icefield were examined for potential use in ice core dating and estimation of the net accumulation rate. The core was subjected to visual stratigraphic observation and bulk density measurements in the field, and later to analyses of snow algal biomass, water isotopes (¹⁸O, D), and major dissolved ions. The ice core contained many algal cells that belonged to two species of snow algae growing in the snow near the surface: Chloromonas sp. and an unknown green algal species. Algal biomass and major dissolved ions (Na⁺, K⁺, Mg²⁺, Ca²⁺, Cl⁻, SO₄²⁻) exhibited rapid decreases in the upper 3 m, probably owing to melt water elution and/or decomposition of algal cells. However, seasonal cycles were still found for the snow algal biomass, ¹⁸O, D-excess, and major ions, although the amplitudes of the cycles decreased with depth. Supposing that the layers with almost no snow algae were the winter layers without the melt water essential to algal growth, we estimated that the net accumulation rate at this location was 12.9 m a^− 1 from winter 1998 to winter 1999, and 5.1 m from the beginning of winter to December 1999. These estimates are similar to the values estimated from the peaks of ¹⁸O (17.8 m a^− 1 from summer 1998 to summer 1999 and 11.0 m from summer to December 1999) and those of D-excess (14.7 m a^− 1 from fall 1998 to fall 1999 and 8.6 m a^− 1 from fall to December 1999). These values are much higher than those obtained by past ice core studies in Patagonia, but are of the same order of magnitude as those predicted from various observations at ablation areas of Patagonian glaciers.     

Solar irradiance between 120 and 400nm and its variations

The solar ultraviolet irradiance measurements in the 120–400 nm wavelength range are reviewed and compared showing still important discrepancies between the irradiance values deduced from the most recent observations.The possible variations of the solar ultraviolet irradiances with the 27-day rotation period of the Sun and with the 11-year activity cycle are presented and discussed on the basis of the available irradiation fluxes obtained during the rising phase of solar cycle 21.The spectral features of both kinds of variation are clearly related to the solar atmospheric layer from which the corresponding radiation is emitted.Proceedings of the 14th ESLAB Symposium on Physics of Solar Variations, 16–19 September 1980, Scheveningen, The Netherlands.     

Recent evolution and mass balance of Cordón Martial glaciers, Cordillera Fueguina Oriental

Past and present glacier changes have been studied at Cordón Martial, Cordillera Fueguina Oriental, Tierra del Fuego, providing novel data for the Holocene deglaciation history of southern South America and extrapolating as well its future behavior based on predicted climatic changes. Regional geomorphologic and stratigraphic correlations indicate that the last glacier advance deposited the ice-proximal (“internal”) moraines of Cordón Martial, around 330 ¹⁴C yr BP, during the Late Little Ice Age (LLIA). Since then glaciers have receded slowly, until 60 years ago, when major glacier retreat started. There is a good correspondence for the past 100 years between the surface area variation of four small cirque glaciers at Cordón Martial and the annual temperature and precipitation data of Ushuaia. Between 1984 and 1998, Martial Este Glacier lost 0.64 ± 0.02 × 10⁶ m³ of ice mass (0.59 ± 0.02 × 10⁶ m³ w.e.), corresponding to an average ice thinning of 7.0 ± 0.2 m (6.4 ± 0.2 m w.e), according to repeated topographic mapping. More detailed climatic data have been obtained since 1998 at the Martial Este Glacier, including air temperature, humidity and solar radiation. These records, together with the monthly mass balance measured since March 2000, document the annual response of the Martial Este Glacier to the climate variation. Mass balances during hydrological years were positive in 2000, negative in 2001 and near equilibrium in 2002. Finally, using these data and the regional temperature trend projections, modeled for different future scenarios by the Atmosphere-Ocean Model (GISS-NASA/GSFC), potential climatic-change effects on this mountain glacier were extrapolated. The analysis shows that only the Martial Este Glacier may survive this century.     

Dynamics, evolution, and structure of Uranus' brightest cloud feature

The brightest cloud feature ever observed on Uranus at near-infrared wavelengths was detected on 14 and 15 August 2005, in images obtained with the NIRC2 instrument and adaptive optics (AO) at the 10-m Keck II telescope. The feature has been tracked forward and backward in time, and appears to have existed almost certainly from 5 November 2004 (possibly as early as 11 July 2004) through 29 October 2005. It appears to exhibit two modes of oscillation in latitude and longitude. The slow oscillation period is too long to be completely characterized by the observations; its period is most likely near 448 days, but might be as long as 753 days. The slow oscillation is consistent with the zonal mean wind profile when a superimposed more rapid oscillation is accounted for. The slow oscillation, possibly associated with a Rossby wave, was centered at 30.2° N and had a latitude amplitude of 0.6°–0.7°. Its rapid oscillation had an amplitude of 1.2° in latitude and a likely period near 0.68455 days, which is consistent with an inertial oscillation at the observed latitude. The multi-component structure of the bright features has evolved over time, as has its vertical structure. Its brightness maximum was due to a combination of cloud particles being lofted to higher altitudes, some rising from 400–500 to 300 mb, and by its effective cloud fraction (or equivalent cloud area) increasing by a factor of 5 or more. In the K′ band (2.2 μm) the differential integrated brightness due to this bright complex increased to 13% of the total light reflected by Uranus on 15 August 2005, rising from about 2% a month earlier and declining to 0.7% two months later. It has not been seen in 2006 observations.     

Examining the sensitivity of Earth's climate to the removal of ozone, landmasses and enhanced ocean heat transport in the GENESIS global climate model

This paper examines the cloud radiative forcing and its impacts on the surface climate for global climate model simulations that use reduced ozone concentrations and land fractions as boundary conditions. In one simulation using present-day land continents, ozone concentrations are reduced to zero and compared to the present-day climate simulation. In the second set of simulations under global ocean conditions, the implied poleward transport of heat by the ocean is varied. The removal of ozone causes an increase in longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and the surface. The increase in longwave forcing melts sea-ice and snow at high latitudes leading 10–14°C warmer temperatures and globally a 2°C increase. The global ocean simulations lead to higher cloud fractions than present-day simulation. Without poleward transport of heat by the ocean, surface temperatures cool as a result of higher cloud fractions. Increasing the ocean heat transport by a factor of 3.33 brings about ice-free conditions. An 11°C difference in globally averaged surface air temperatures is found between the enhanced and zero poleward oceanic heat transport simulations. The longwave cloud radiative forcing from high cloud fractions enhance the surface warming in the polar regions during the winter season. Conversely, during the summer season, a high cloud fraction increases the shortwave cloud radiative forcing producing only moderately warm temperatures in the polar regions. High cloud fractions in polar regions during warm periods throughout geologic times may help to explain the reduced equator to pole temperature gradient.     

Biomization and quantitative climate reconstruction techniques in northwestern Mexico—With an application to four Holocene pollen sequences

New paleovegetation and paleoclimatic reconstructions from the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO) in northwestern Mexico are presented. This work involves climate and biome reconstruction using Plant Functional Types (PFT) assigned to pollen taxa. We used fossil pollen data from four Holocene peat bogs located at different altitudes (1500‑2000 m) at the border region of Sonora and Chihuahua at around 28° N latitude (Ortega-Rosas, C.I. 2003. Palinología de la Ciénega de Camilo: datos para la historia de la vegetación y el clima del Holoceno medio y superior en el NW de la Sierra Madre Occidental, Sonora, Mexico. Master Thesis, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México D.F.; Ortega-Rosas, C.I., Peñalba, M.C., Guiot, J. Holocene altitudinal shifts in vegetation belts and environmental changes in the Sierra Madre Occidental, Northwestern Mexico. Submitted for publication of Palaeobotany and Palynology). The closest modern pollen data come from pollen analysis across an altitudinal transect from the Sonoran Desert towards the highlands of the temperate SMO at the same latitude (Ortega-Rosas, C.I. 2003. Palinología de la Ciénega de Camilo: datos para la historia de la vegetación y el clima del Holoceno medio y superior en el NW de la Sierra Madre Occidental, Sonora, Mexico. Master Thesis, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México D.F.). An additional modern pollen dataset of 400 sites across NW Mexico and the SW United States was compiled from different sources (Davis, O.K., 1995. Climate and vegetation pattern in surface samples from arid western U.S.A.: application to Holocene climatic reconstruction. Palynology 19, 95–119, North American Pollen Database, Latin-American Pollen Database, personal data, and different scientific papers). For the biomization method (Prentice, I.C., Guiot, J., Huntley, B., Jolly, D., Cheddadi, R., 1996. Reconstructing biomes from paleoecological data: a general method and its application to European pollen data at 0 and 6 ka. Climate Dynamics 12, 185–194), we modified the pollen-PFT and PFT-biomes assignation of Thompson and Anderson (Thompson, R.S., Anderson, K.H., 2000. Biomes of western North America at 18,000; 6000 and 0 14C yr BP reconstructed from pollen and packrat midden data. Journal of Biogeography 27, 555–584) for a better representation of the modern vegetation of NW Mexico. The biome reconstruction method was validated with the modern pollen sites and applied to the fossil sites. Our results show that, during the early Holocene, a cool conifer forest extended at least down to 1700 m, while today this biome is present above 2000 m in the Chihuahua state. The Younger Dryas event was recorded in one site with cold and dry conditions. The reconstructed annual temperature for this period was 3°–6 °C colder than today, and annual precipitation was 250 mm lower than at present (900 mm/yr). The middle Holocene after 9200 cal yr BP was marked by a warming trend, reaching temperatures 2 °C warmer than today at 7000 cal yr BP, and by the installation of a warm mixed forest, the present day biome, at 1700 m elevation, while at higher elevations (1900 m) the cool conifer forest was still present. Summer precipitation was 200 mm/yr above the early Holocene values, suggesting that monsoon-like conditions strengthened since 9200 cal yr BP at this region. During the last 4000 yr, the same warm mixed forest was reconstructed below 1700 m and a conifer forest above 1700 m. A great variability of vegetation and climate patterns was recorded for the last 3000 yr particularly at high elevation sites, where warming and cooling trends would be coeval of the Medieval warm period and Little Ice Age, likely related to ENSO variability.     

Environmental changes on Yugorski Peninsula, Kara Sea, Russia, during the last 12,800 radiocarbon years

New pollen and radiocarbon data from an 8.6-m coastal section, Cape Shpindler (69°43′N; 62°48′E), Yugorski Peninsula, document the latest Pleistocene and Holocene environmental history of this low Arctic region. Twelve AMS ¹⁴C dates indicate that the deposits accumulated since about 13,000 until 2000 radiocarbon years BP. A thermokarst lake formed ca. 13,000–12,800 years BP, when scarce arctic tundra vegetation dominated the area. By 12,500 years BP, a shallow lake existed at the site, and Arctic tundra with Poaceae, Cyperaceae, Salix, Saxifraga, and Artemisia dominated nearby vegetation. Climate was colder than today. Betula nana became dominant during the Early Preboreal period about 9500 years BP, responding to a warm event, which was one of the warmest during the Holocene. Decline in B. nana and Salix after 9500 years BP reflects a brief event of Preboreal cooling. A subsequent increase in Betula and Alnus fruticosa pollen percentages reflects amelioration of environmental conditions at the end of Preboreal period (ca. 9300 years BP). A decline in arboreal taxa later, with a dramatic increase in herb taxa, reflects a short cold event at about 9200 years BP. The pollen data reflect a northward movement of tree birch, peaking at the middle Boreal period, around 8500 years BP. Open Betula forest existed on the Kara Sea coast of the Yugorski Peninsula during the Atlantic period (8000–4500 years BP), indicating that climate was significantly warmer than today. Deteriorating climate around the Atlantic–Subboreal boundary (ca. 4500 years BP) is recorded by a decline in Betula percentages. Sedimentation slowed at the site, and processes of denudation and/or soil formation started at the beginning of the Subatlantic period, when vegetation cover on Yugorski Peninsula shifted to near-modern assemblages.     

Modeled soft X-ray solar irradiances

Solar soft X-rays have historically been inaccurately modeled in both relative variations and absolute magnitudes by empirical solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance models. This is a result of the use of a limited number of rocket data sets which were primarily associated with the calibration of the AE-E satellite EUV data set. In this work, the EUV91 solar EUV irradiance model has been upgraded to improve the accuracy of the 3.0 to 5.0 nm relative irradiance variations. The absolute magnitude estimate of the flux in this wavelength range has also been revised upwards. The upgrade was accomplished by first digitizing the SOLRAD 11 satellite 4.4 to 6.0 nm measured energy flux data set, then extracting and extrapolating a derived 3.0 to 5.0 nm photon flux from these data, and finally by performing a correlation between these derived data and the daily and 81-day mean 10.7 cm radio flux emission using a multiple linear regression technique. A correlation coefficient of greater than 0.9 was obtained between the dependent and independent data sets. The derived and modeled 3.0 to 5.0 nm flux varies by more than an order of magnitude over a solar cycle, ranging from a flux below 1×10⁸ to a flux greater than 1×10⁹ photons cm^–2 s^–1. Solar rotational (27-day) variations in the flux magnitude are a factor of 2. The derived and modeled irradiance absolute values are an order of magnitude greater than previous values from rocket data sets related to the calibration of the AE-E satellite.