Induced seismicity in potash mining — a finite element study

Summary A number of earthquakes have been recorded in strata above underground potash mines in Saskatchewan, Canada. These seismic events are widely understood to be generated in the carbonate Dawson Bay Formation and, possibly, other superincumbent beds, and are believed to be directly related to mining operations. The mechanical response of these higher strata to mining is not observable andin situ instrumentation for measuring post-mining stresses and strains in the carbonate beds is sparse. Numerical models are believed to be the most effective option for investigating the response of these higher strata to potash mining. In this regard a realistic finite element model based on elasto-plastic material behaviour is developed in this paper. Special capabilities added to this general elasto-plastic model permit simulation of the post-failure behaviour of the rock mass. Possible modes of failure in the Dawson Bay are investigated and the brittle failure of intact limestone is affirmed as the possible mode of failure producing major seismicity. Slip along existing discontinuities in overlying strata is also demonstrated to be another possible mechanism, though with lower energy levels.     

Induced seismicity in the Castanhão reservoir, NE Brazil — Preliminary results

The Castanhão reservoir was built in the state of Ceará, a dry region in Northeastern Brazil, to regulate the flow of the Jaguaribe River, for irrigation, and for power generation. It is an earth-filled dam, 60 m high, with a water capacity of 4.5 × 10⁹ m³. The seismicity in the area has been monitored since 1998, with a few interruptions, using one analog or one digital station and, during a few periods, a three-station network. The first earthquakes likely to be induced events were detected in 2003, when the water level was about 20 m high. In early 2004 a very heavy rainfall season quickly filled the reservoir. Shortly after, an increase in the seismic activity occurred and many micro-earthquakes were recorded. We suggest that this activity resulted from an increase in pore pressure due to undrained response. Therefore, we may classify this cluster of micro-earthquakes as “initial seismicity.” We deployed a network with four analog stations in the area, following this activity, to determine the epicentral zone. At least three epicentral areas under the reservoir were detected. The spatio-temporal analysis of the available data revealed that the seismicity occurs in clusters and that these were activated at different periods. We identified four sets of faults (N–S-, E–W-, NW–SE-, and NE–SW-oriented), some of which moved in shallow crustal levels and as recently as the Quaternary (1.8 Ma). Under the present-day stress regime, the last two sets moved as strike-slip structures. We suggest a possible correlation between dormant faults and the observed induced seismicity.     

Time-dependent seismicity in China

Precise zonation of the territory of China has been performed based on the active known faults, type of faulting and seismicity level. One hundred and forty seven seismogenic regions were defined, forming 10 larger seismic areas, and the seismotectonic characteristics in each one of them were investigated in detail. After checking for data accuracy and completeness of the shallow earthquakes (h≤60 km), the regional time and magnitude predictable model was applied and the model parameters were estimated. Based on the model applicability in the studied area, probabilities for the occurrence of strong (M≥6.0) earthquakes during the next 10 years were calculated for each seismogenic region. Statistical tests have been used proving the superiority of the model in comparison with the time independent one, as well as in comparison with the actual earthquake occurrence.     

Decelerating precursory seismicity in Vrancea

Preshock seismic excitation followed by seismic quiescence has been observed in the seismogenic region of strong shallow mainshocks. The strain released by such preshocks is decelerating with the time to the mainshock and is fitted by a power-law with a power value larger than unit. This model is tested in the present work for the intermediate-depth earthquakes of the Vrancea region, generated in an isolated seismogenic zone proper for such testing. A backward application of this “decelerating preshock strain” model for the case of 4.3.1977 (M = 7.5) earthquake, for which reliable data are available, shows a good fit of the power-law pattern to the seismic activity preceding the main shock. The occurrence rate of recent intermediate-depth shocks in Vrancea indicates that this region is currently in a state of decelerating seismic deformation, which may lead to the generation of a strong intermediate-depth mainshock there at about the beginning of the third decade of the present century. The respective uncertainties are unknown due to lack of previous relative studies.     

Crustal seismicity in central Chile

Both the genesis and rates of activity of shallow intraplate seismic activity in central Chile are poorly understood, mainly because of the lack of association of seismicity with recognizable fault features at the surface and a poor record of seismic activity. The goal of this work is to detail the characteristics of seismicity that takes place in the western flank of the Andes in central Chile. This region, located less than 100 km from Santiago, has been the site of earthquakes with magnitudes up to 6.9, including several 5+ magnitude shocks in recent years. Because most of the events lie outside the Central Chile Seismic Network, at distances up to 60 km to the east, it is essential to have adequate knowledge of the velocity structure in the Andean region to produce the highest possible quality of epicentral locations. For this, a N–S refraction line, using mining blasts of the Disputada de Las Condes open pit mine, has been acquired. These blasts were detected and recorded as far as 180 km south of the mine. Interpretation of the travel times indicates an upper crustal model consisting of three layers: 2.2-, 6.7-, and 6.1-km thick, overlying a half space; their associated P wave velocities are 4.75–5.0 (gradient), 5.8–6.0 (gradient), 6.2, and 6.6 km/s, respectively.Hypocentral relocation of earthquakes in 1986–2001, using the newly developed velocity model, reveals several regions of concentrated seismicity. One clearly delineates the fault zone and extensions of the strike-slip earthquake that took place in September 1987 at the source of the Cachapoal River. Other regions of activity are near the San José volcano, the source of the Maipo River, and two previously recognized lineaments that correspond to the southern extension of the Pocuro fault and Olivares River. A temporary array of seismographs, installed in the high Maipo River (1996) and San José volcano (1997) regions, established the hypocentral location of events with errors of less than 1 km. These events are clustered along no particular lineament approximately 25 km away from the San José and Maipo volcanoes. Recurrence intervals, based on a frequency magnitude relationship for lower magnitude events, indicate that earthquakes with magnitudes of 4.7 and 7 have a repeat time of 1 and 1200 years, respectively. Focal mechanisms of the two largest events indicate horizontal maximum and minimum compressive stresses with σ₁ varying from a NW–SE orientation in the north to E–W at the southern extreme.     

Technogenic tectonic seismicity in Kuzbass

This paper presents an analysis of the development of the current seismic state of the Kuznetsk coal basin, which is characterized by an increase in technogenic seismicity of different types under the influence of prolonged intensive mining operations. The development of technogenesis led to a significant increase in technogenic seismicity in the Kuznetsk Basin in the 1970-1980s, when the number of technogenic earthquakes began to exceed the number of natural earthquakes. Among the various types of induced seismicity, special attention is paid to strong technogenic tectonic earthquakes with a regional magnitude M_b ≥ 3 and, accordingly, a seismic energy release of more than 10⁹ J, i.e., earthquakes of energy class K > 9. These small-focus earthquakes are often accompanied by destruction of underground mines, collapse of quarries and pits, damage to surface facilities and equipment, and other adverse effects. In this paper, such earthquakes are defined as technogenic tectonic to emphasize their dual origin: technogenic impacts and the subsequent relaxation of tectonic stresses. It is also noted that the Earth’s interior in Kuzbass initially had its own natural seismicity and a developed system of tectonic faults. Natural seismotectonic activity combined with constantly increasing scales of mining and explosive consumption has led to an increase in the number of technogenic seismic events and their intensity. A striking example of such an event was the 18 June, 2013 Bachat earthquake with a regional magnitude M_b= 5.8 and a seismic intensity of 7 in the epicentral zone. It was the world’s largest man-made earthquake induced by the mining of solid minerals. We consider the possible causes of this catastrophic earthquake and discuss the conditions favoring the formation of foci of such technogenic tectonic earthquakes resulting from changes in the geodynamic and hydrogeological conditions in the Earth’s crust under man-caused impacts. These induced changes in natural processes are accompanied by a change in the stress-strain state, resulting in the concentration of tectonic stresses at heterogeneities and in fault zones, which become sources of induced technogenic seismicity.The paper discusses the current period of the occurrence and increase in such anthropogenic seismicity in the Kuzbass region with increasing scales of coal mining and blasting. Over the last 20 years, the consumption of explosives at Kuzbass enterprises increased from 100-200 to 500-600 thousand tons per year, and, accordingly, the amounts of broken and transported rock increased from several million tons per year to a billion tons per year, which disturbed the dynamic equilibrium in the Earth’s crust and changed the existing field of tectonic stresses. Moreover, the continuously increasing consumption of explosives has also increased the technogenic impact on the crust structures. The location of the epicenters of large-scale blasts inducing seismic events with regional magnitudes M_b= 3.0-4.5 has made it possible to identify regions with the greatest technogenic impact in Kuzbass. Using the data of the ISC seismological catalog, we separated seismic events with the above magnitudes into day and night ones. Since blasting work is forbidden at night, night seismic events are referred to as technogenic tectonic earthquakes (night event criterion). The maximum magnitude of seismic events induced by blasting operations in the Kuznetsk Basin was estimated at M_b ≤ 4.4. The annual number of technogenic tectonic earthquakes with 3.0 ≤ M_b ≤ 3.4, 3.5 ≤ M_b ≤ 3.9, 4.0 ≤ M_b ≤ 4.4, and M_b ≥ 4.5 was determined based on the night event criterion. The regions of their occurrence were identified from the location of the epicenters of technogenic tectonic earthquakes.     

Neotectonics and seismicity in southern Patagonia

Research for evaluation of geologic hazards involving earthquakes and volcanic eruptions in southern Argentina seems to have historically received little attention. Nevertheless, the relatively small work done indicates a Neogene tectonic architecture in the area with capability of generating potential hazardous earthquakes in a growing population region. Seismicity and some morphotectonic evidences of Quaternary activity of the Magallanes–Fagnano left‐lateral fault system in the transform boundary between South America and Scotia plates, are analysed in this paper. This fault system is considered to be an important seismogenic source, responsible for large earthquakes that have occurred in southern Argentina. Some examples from the South and Austral Andean Volcanic Zones are also examined in order to show recent volcanic activity which also generated crustal seismicity. Preliminary hazard estimation clearly shows the presence of both potentially active volcanic centres in southern Patagonia that may also trigger seismicity and the high probability for large crustal earthquake generation. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Correlations in aftershock and seismicity patterns

Correlations in space and time play a fundamental role in earthquake processes. One direct manifestation of the effects of correlations is the occurrence of aftershocks due to the stress transfer in the vicinity of a main shock. Less obvious and more speculative changes in correlations may occur in the background seismicity before large earthquakes. Using statistical physics it is possible to introduce a measure of spatial correlations through a correlation length. This quantity characterizes how local fluctuations can influence the occurrence of earthquakes over distances comparable with the correlation length. In this work, the physical basis of spatial correlations of earthquakes is discussed in the context of critical phenomena and the percolation problem. The method of two-point correlation function is applied to the seismicity of California. Well defined variations in time of the correlation length are found for aftershock sequences and background seismicity. The scaling properties of our obtained distributions are analyzed with respect to changes in several scaling parameters such as lower magnitude cutoff of earthquakes, the maximum time interval between earthquakes, and the spatial size of the area considered. This scaling behavior can be described in a unified manner by utilizing the multifractal fit. Utilizing the percolation approach the time evolution of clusters of earthquakes is studied with the correlation length defined in terms of the radius of gyration of clusters. This method is applied to the seismicity of California.     

Greek tectonics and seismicity

The validity of existing tectonic models for the area of Greece is examined in the light of the new recalculated parameters for earthquakes of the region (Makropoulos and Burton, 1981). Relocated hypocentral positions are extracted from the catalogue to form radial and vertical distance-depth cross-sections centred on a reference point near the mid-point of the Aegean Volcanic arc, and these are used to form a three dimensional topography of the base of earthquake occurrence below 60 km. Isodepth maps are extracted from this topography as both three and two dimensional map presentations. These maps reveal several significant features of deep-seated tectonic processes in the region. Isodepths exceeding 150 km are seen in the northwest Aegean, and these are more closely linked to the Sporadhes and Gulf of Thermaicos, rather than the North Aegean trough. The 150 km isodepths are also seen in the northeast Aegean straddling the Dardanelles; in the northeastern part of the Peloponnesus, Gulf of Saronikos and eastern Gulf of Corinth in the southern Peloponnesus towards Crete; and extending from north of Kos to south of Rodos. The largest extent of deepest activity is seen south of Rodos and this continues towards southwest of Turkey. The subduction zone of the Hellenic arc is clear, but smooth Benioff zones are not the norm, and these data show that structural complexity is more readily observed. It is concluded that none of the proposed tectonic models completely explain the observed activity over the whole area, and rather than propose yet another model places where further work is still particularly necessary are identified.     

Controls on intra-plate seismicity in southwestern Australia

Although the Southwest Seismic Zone (SWSZ), located about 150 km to the east of Perth in southwestern Australia, is one of the most seismically active areas in Australia, there is little understanding as to why the earthquakes are occurring.An analysis of geophysical, geological and geodetic data from the area suggests that the SWSZ coincides with a Precambrian terrane boundary. Seismic data show that the terrane boundary zone dips at a shallow angle in a northeasterly direction. Reactivation of this ‘zone of weakness’ in the contemporary stress field (east–west maximum horizontal stress) is interpreted to be the first-order control on seismicity in the region.Gravity data show that the terrane boundary is offset by near-orthogonal structures, which are interpreted as faults. At least one of these trends corresponds with a linear zone of epicentres. The temporal and spatial distributions of epicentres associated with the 1968 Meckering earthquake (ML 6.9) suggest that the second-order distribution of seismicity in the SWSZ can be explained by the ‘intersection model’, whereby stresses are amplified by space problems associated with displacements on crosscutting faults.It is speculated that a zone of high density and high seismic velocity in the lower crust may also be a second-order control on the local seismicity. However, confirmation awaits better delineation of the extent of this zone.     

A classification of induced seismicity

In order to adopt the best safety procedures, man-made earthquakes should be differentiated as a function of their origin. At least four different types of settings can be recognized in which anthropogenic activities may generate seismicity: (I) fluid removal from a stratigraphic reservoir in the underground can trigger the compaction of the voids and the collapse of the overlying volume, i.e., graviquakes; the deeper the reservoir, the bigger the volume and the earthquake magnitude; (II) wastewater or gas reinjection provides the reduction of friction in volumes and along fault planes, allowing creep or sudden activation of tectonic discontinuities, i.e., reinjection quakes; (III) fluid injection at supra-lithostatic pressure generates hydrofracturing and micro-seismicity, i.e., hydrofracturing quakes; (IV) fluid extraction or fluid injection, filling or unfilling of artificial lakes modifies the lithostatic load, which is the maximum principal stress in extensional tectonic settings, the minimum principal stress in contractional tectonic settings, and the intermediate principal stress in strike-slip settings, i.e., load quakes; over given pressure values, the increase of the lithostatic load may favour the activation of normal faults, whereas its decrease may favour thrust faults. For example, the filling of an artificial lake may generate normal fault-related seismicity. Therefore, each setting has its peculiarities and the knowledge of the different mechanisms may contribute to the adoption of the appropriate precautions in the various industrial activities.     

A database for worldwide seismicity quantification

The first step in a seismicity analysis usually consists of defining the seismogenic units, seismic zones or individual faults. The worldwide delimitation of these zones involves an enormous effort and is often rather subjective. Also, a complete recording of faults will not be available for a long time yet. The seismicity model presented in this paper therefore is not based on individually defined seismic zones but rather on the assumption that each point in a global 1/2° grid of coordinates represents a potential earthquake source. The corresponding seismogenic parameters are allocated to each of these points. The earthquake occurrence frequency, one of the most important parameters, is determined purely statistically by appropriately spreading out the positions of past occurrences. All the other significant seismicity characteristics, such as magnitude-frequency relations, maximum possible magnitude and attenuation laws including the dependence on focal depth are determined in a global 1/2° grid of co-ordinates. This method of interpreting seismicity data allows us to establish a transparent, sufficiently precise representation of seismic hazard which is ideally suited for computer-aided risk analyses.     

水文地质结构与水库诱发地震

本文基于断层渗透结构和岩体渗透稳定性两个概念,提出了水文地质结构及其分类方案.通过理论分析和水库地震案例解析,阐述了水文地质结构对诱发地震的制约作用.提出了基于水文地质结构进行水库诱发地震危险性评价的思路.对水库诱发地震危险性评价具有一定借鉴意义.